Alirio Ferrebus — OGILVIE

Alirio FerrebusC Clearwater Threshers

Age 20 R/R 6'2" / 174 lbs A HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION288 act + 192 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†106

AVG/OBP/SLG.267 / .321 / .415

PA192

HR5

K%18

BB%4

BABIP307

ISO148

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 48 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT48

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED36

scouting grade only

DEFENSE46

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.2	$19M	+$18M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.2	$18M	+$17M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.3	$17M	+$16M
2033	Arb-1	$6M	+3.3	$16M	+$12M
2034	Arb-2	$10M	+3.1	$14M	+$9M
2035	Arb-3	$14M	+3.0	$12M	+$7M
Totals		$34M		$94M	+$80M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	—	75	65	16	2	0	1	4	20	6	3	1	246	347	323	670	77	341	27	5	284	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	—	75	62	21	3	0	1	7	15	6	3	1	339	453	435	889	97	435	20	9	408	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	92	80	21	5	0	3	5	12	4	3	3	263	337	438	775	175	265	13	5	333	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	92	77	27	7	0	3	8	9	4	3	3	351	438	558	997	208	353	10	9	425	184	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	3 teams	—	397	362	72	14	1	6	18	85	14	3	1	199	264	293	557	94	241	21	5	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	3 teams	—	397	361	90	14	1	7	18	53	14	3	1	249	310	352	661	102	273	13	5	299	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	A	PHI	—	288	262	77	19	0	9	11	54	10	5	1	294	346	469	816	176	333	19	4	347	124	+8	+1	+0	+5	+8	2.2
YTD	20	A	PHI	—	288	258	83	20	0	10	15	38	10	5	1	322	382	516	897	194	340	13	5	390	156	+18	+1	+0	+5	+8	3.3
ROS	20	A	PHI	0%	192	176	47	11	0	5	8	35	6	3	1	267	321	415	736	148	302	18	4	324	106	+1	+0	-0	+3	+5	1.0
ROS	20	MLB	PHI	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		304	—	—	303	90	—	—	-0	+0	—	—
FULL	20	A	PHI	—	288	263	77	19	0	9	11	54	10	5	1	293	346	468	814	175	332	19	4	347	124	+8	+1	+0	+5	+8	2.2
TOT	20	A	PHI	—	480	438	124	30	0	14	19	89	16	8	2	283	336	447	784	164	323	19	4	338	117	+9	+1	-0	+9	+14	3.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	PHI	48%	520	477	124	28	1	13	23	94	15	5	2	260	315	405	719	145	298	18	4	321	104	+2	+0	-1	+9	+15	2.7
2028	22	MLB	PHI	68%	520	475	125	28	1	14	25	94	15	5	2	263	320	415	735	152	299	18	5	326	108	+5	+0	-1	+9	+15	2.9
2029	23	MLB	PHI	76%	520	474	126	28	1	15	27	94	14	5	2	266	324	424	748	158	299	18	5	330	110	+6	+0	-1	+9	+15	3.0
2030	24	MLB	PHI	78%	520	473	126	28	1	15	28	93	14	5	2	266	326	425	751	159	300	18	5	332	112	+7	+0	-1	+9	+15	3.2
2031	25	MLB	PHI	79%	520	473	126	28	1	15	28	93	14	5	2	266	326	425	751	159	300	18	5	334	114	+8	+0	-1	+9	+15	3.2
2032	26	MLB	PHI	79%	520	473	126	28	1	15	28	93	14	5	2	266	326	425	751	159	300	18	5	334	114	+8	+0	-1	+9	+15	3.3
2033	27	MLB	PHI	78%	520	472	125	28	1	15	29	93	14	5	2	265	326	424	750	159	299	18	6	334	114	+8	+0	-1	+9	+15	3.3
2034	28	MLB	PHI	77%	520	472	125	28	1	15	29	94	14	5	2	265	326	424	750	159	299	18	6	333	113	+8	+0	-1	+9	+15	3.1
2035	29	MLB	PHI	75%	520	471	124	27	1	15	30	95	14	5	1	263	326	420	747	157	298	18	6	331	112	+7	+1	-2	+9	+15	3.0
2036	30	MLB	PHI	74%	520	471	124	27	1	15	30	96	14	4	1	263	326	420	747	157	297	18	6	329	110	+6	+0	-3	+9	+15	2.8
2037	31	MLB	PHI	73%	504	457	118	26	1	14	29	95	13	3	1	258	321	411	732	153	295	19	6	324	106	+4	+0	-3	+9	+14	2.4
2038	32	MLB	PHI	72%	478	435	111	24	1	13	27	92	13	3	1	255	318	405	722	149	291	19	6	318	102	+1	+0	-4	+9	+14	2.0
2039	33	MLB	PHI	72%	437	398	99	21	1	11	25	86	11	2	1	249	311	389	701	141	287	20	6	311	96	-2	+0	-5	+8	+12	1.4
2040	34	MLB	PHI	68%	381	347	82	17	0	9	21	77	10	1	0	236	299	363	662	127	280	20	6	301	89	-5	+0	-5	+7	+11	0.8
2041	35	MLB	PHI	63%	321	292	67	13	0	7	18	68	8	1	0	229	292	346	638	116	273	21	6	290	80	-7	+0	-6	+6	+9	0.2
2042	36	MLB	PHI	54%	262	239	52	10	0	5	14	57	7	0	0	218	281	322	603	105	267	22	5	279	71	-8	+0	-7	+5	+7	-0.3
2043	37	MLB	PHI	45%	201	184	39	7	0	4	10	45	5	0	0	212	271	315	587	103	259	22	5	266	62	-9	+0	-7	+4	+6	-0.7
2027	21	MLB	PHI	48%	251	231	60	14	0	6	11	46	7	3	1	260	313	398	712	139	301	18	4	303	90	-3	+0	-0	+4	+7	0.9
2028	22	MLB	PHI	68%	354	324	86	19	1	10	17	64	10	4	1	265	322	423	745	157	301	18	5	308	94	-2	+0	-0	+6	+10	1.4
2029	23	MLB	PHI	76%	397	362	97	22	1	11	21	71	11	4	1	268	327	425	753	157	301	18	5	312	97	-1	+0	-0	+7	+11	1.7
2030	24	MLB	PHI	78%	405	369	99	22	1	12	22	73	11	4	1	268	328	431	759	163	302	18	5	315	99	-0	+0	-0	+7	+11	1.9
2031	25	MLB	PHI	79%	409	373	100	22	1	12	22	73	11	4	1	268	328	429	757	161	302	18	5	317	101	+0	+0	-0	+7	+12	1.9
2032	26	MLB	PHI	79%	411	375	100	22	1	12	22	73	11	4	1	267	326	427	753	160	302	18	5	317	101	+0	+0	-0	+7	+12	2.0
2033	27	MLB	PHI	78%	403	367	98	22	1	12	22	72	11	4	1	267	328	431	758	163	302	18	5	317	101	+0	+0	-0	+7	+11	1.9
2034	28	MLB	PHI	77%	400	363	98	22	1	12	23	72	11	4	1	270	332	435	768	165	301	18	6	316	100	+0	+0	-1	+7	+11	1.8
2035	29	MLB	PHI	75%	389	354	94	21	1	11	22	71	10	3	1	266	326	424	750	158	301	18	6	314	99	-1	+0	-1	+7	+11	1.6
2036	30	MLB	PHI	74%	382	347	91	20	1	11	22	71	10	3	1	262	325	421	745	159	299	19	6	312	97	-1	+0	-2	+7	+11	1.5
2037	31	MLB	PHI	73%	367	333	87	19	1	10	21	69	10	3	1	261	324	414	739	153	297	19	6	307	93	-3	+0	-2	+7	+10	1.2
2038	32	MLB	PHI	72%	346	314	80	18	0	9	20	66	9	2	1	255	318	398	716	143	294	19	6	302	89	-4	+0	-3	+6	+10	0.9
2039	33	MLB	PHI	72%	315	286	71	15	0	8	18	62	8	1	0	248	311	385	696	136	289	20	6	294	83	-6	+0	-3	+6	+9	0.6
2040	34	MLB	PHI	68%	258	235	56	12	0	6	14	52	7	1	0	238	301	366	667	128	283	20	5	285	76	-7	+0	-4	+5	+7	0.2
2041	35	MLB	PHI	63%	203	185	43	8	0	5	11	43	5	0	0	232	294	357	650	124	276	21	5	274	68	-7	+0	-4	+4	+6	-0.2
2042	36	MLB	PHI	54%	142	129	28	5	0	3	8	31	4	0	0	217	284	326	609	109	269	22	6	262	59	-7	+0	-4	+3	+4	-0.4
2043	37	MLB	PHI	45%	91	84	18	3	0	2	5	21	2	0	0	214	275	321	596	107	261	23	5	250	49	-5	+0	-3	+2	+3	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5523	5032	1306	286	10	152	301	1030	148	44	12	260	320	411	731	151	298	19	5	306	92	-47	+4	-30	+99	+156	18.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	154	34	1	18	35	121	17	5	1	260	319	412	732	152	298	19	5	306	92	-6	+1	-4	+12	+18	2.2
Career	—			—	8540	7766	1975	428	14	225	456	1611	239	71	27	254	316	400	716	146	293	19	5	318	102	+15	+3	-47	+153	+242	37.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	151	33	1	17	35	123	18	5	2	255	317	401	718	146	295	19	5	318	102	+1	+0	-4	+12	+18	2.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	—	75	62	21	3	0	1	7	15	6	3	1	339	453	435	889	97	435	20	9	408	170	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.8
2024	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	92	77	27	7	0	3	8	9	4	3	3	351	438	558	997	208	353	10	9	425	184	+9	-1	—	—	+3	1.1
2025	19	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	174	160	35	6	0	1	6	28	6	2	0	219	272	275	547	56	258	16	3	251	50	-10	+0	—	—	+5	-0.4
2025	19	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	106	90	24	5	1	4	11	17	4	0	1	267	371	478	849	211	286	16	10	374	144	+5	-0	—	—	+3	0.8
2025	19	INTL	Adelaide Giants	—	117	111	31	3	0	2	1	8	4	1	0	279	310	360	671	81	284	7	1	301	88	-2	+0	—	—	+3	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Asdrúbal Cabreralast yr '21 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,401 PA	15	7,401	195	91	266	329	423	+58	+11	38.2	32.2
	/162	664	17	8	266	329	423	+5.2	+1.0	3.4	pk7: 26
#2Jason Variteklast yr '11 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,047 PA	12	5,047	166	22	255	343	431	+61	+15	33.1	30.8
	/162	664	22	3	255	343	431	+8.0	+1.9	4.4	pk7: 28
#3Stephen Drewlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,917 PA	12	4,917	123	41	252	318	423	+48	+35	26.2	25.1
	/162	664	17	6	252	318	423	+6.5	+4.7	3.5	pk7: 24
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	13	5,843	159	47	258	315	409	+89	-18	29.5	23.5
	/162	664	18	5	258	315	409	+10.1	-2.0	3.4	pk7: 17
#4Kurt Suzukilast yr '22 career totals — 16 seasons, 6,163 PA	16	6,163	143	20	255	314	388	+110	-35	22.7	20.5
	/162	664	15	2	255	314	388	+11.9	-3.8	2.4	pk7: 18
#5Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
	/162	664	21	6	256	308	421	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#6Welington Castillolast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,667 PA	8	2,667	97	5	254	313	425	+48	-14	13.3	13.2
	/162	664	24	1	254	313	425	+11.9	-3.4	3.3	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alirio Ferrebus (OGILVIE)	20	30→48	30→45	40→36	40	283/336/447	164	323	14	8	19%	4%	117	+3.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Amadeo Zazueta 2006 · A	20	45→55	45	40→50	44	223/268/355	132	261	12	5	20%	6%	71	-0.3	209/254/322	113	255	10	5	22%	5%	56	-1.3	282/313/378	96	307	8	10	11%	3%	91	+0.8
●Juan Apodaca 2006 · A	20	42→52	48→45	46→40	40	218/258/353	135	265	17	4	25%	5%	66	-0.6	222/276/323	101	282	11	5	24%	6%	66	-0.6	284/349/396	112	346	10	3	20%	8%	112	+1.4
●Daniel Robertson 2015 · A	21	50→54	43→45	38→40	47	241/306/351	110	296	10	3	22%	7%	86	+0.8	234/303/335	101	301	8	4	23%	7%	80	+0.4	231/336/345	114	301	11	4	25%	11%	96	+0.8
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2018 · A	20	50→44	43→55	40→45	44	245/288/356	111	285	9	4	18%	5%	79	+0.3	227/267/356	129	268	15	7	21%	4%	71	-0.3	216/261/385	169	243	24	1	23%	4%	74	-0.0
●Jordan Diaz 2022 · A	21	49→56	49→55	41→30	44	247/294/394	147	294	17	5	22%	6%	92	+1.2	262/302/432	170	303	22	2	21%	5%	105	+2.1	263/306/436	173	301	23	0	21%	5%	104	+1.7
✕Alejandro Segovia 2010 · A	20	47→45	43→50	42→30	46	229/284/337	108	250	10	4	14%	5%	73	-0.1	217/267/321	104	257	9	4	19%	5%	61	-1.0	212/293/363	151	249	18	1	22%	8%	81	+0.2
✕Luis Alvarez 2009 · A	19	47	43→45	44→45	48	231/306/343	112	272	11	5	19%	7%	85	+0.7	224/289/325	101	280	9	6	22%	6%	72	-0.2	209/262/317	108	250	12	1	21%	4%	55	-0.3
●Luis Campusano 2019 · A	20	48→56	38→50	40→30	43	232/279/305	73	291	6	3	22%	5%	62	-0.9	252/307/395	143	297	16	3	20%	7%	98	+1.6	264/328/432	168	297	22	1	19%	8%	113	+1.5
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	43→53	46→60	46→50	46	214/297/344	130	275	14	9	26%	8%	82	+0.5	219/304/418	199	291	25	6	32%	9%	104	+2.0	270/324/464	194	313	25	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
●Max Ramirez 2006 · A	21	52	45→55	42→40	46	252/309/376	123	309	12	4	22%	7%	93	+1.3	250/330/397	147	330	16	3	27%	10%	108	+2.3	254/341/419	165	334	20	2	28%	10%	116	+2.1
●Jake Smolinski 2010 · A	21	48→50	43→55	39→45	48	232/293/350	118	281	10	5	21%	7%	80	+0.4	229/290/342	113	274	9	7	19%	7%	77	+0.1	243/303/403	161	276	17	6	19%	6%	96	+1.0
✕Victor Heredia 2019 · A	19	47	44→50	42→30	39	232/274/353	122	292	11	4	25%	4%	72	-0.2	213/267/301	88	291	7	5	28%	6%	56	-1.3	176/240/214	38	249	3	2	28%	6%	21	-1.0
✕Welington Castillo 2008 · A	21	45→55	44→55	41→30	37	223/271/336	113	301	13	4	30%	5%	67	-0.5	226/265/350	124	297	14	3	28%	4%	69	-0.4	252/308/433	181	306	25	1	26%	7%	105	+1.4
●Wilson Ramos 2008 · A	20	47→57	43→60	45→30	40	232/271/342	111	286	10	4	23%	4%	69	-0.4	244/281/363	119	307	12	2	24%	4%	78	+0.2	288/335/471	183	313	25	0	17%	7%	125	+2.3
●Mark Vientos 2019 · A	19	42→49	46→60	43→30	45	215/275/340	125	273	14	3	26%	7%	70	-0.3	206/250/349	143	284	18	2	33%	5%	62	-0.9	245/305/447	202	325	28	0	32%	7%	109	+2.0
●Jonathan Schoop 2012 · A	20	50→57	41→60	46→45	45	240/283/345	106	281	8	7	18%	5%	74	-0.1	225/272/350	125	275	14	5	23%	5%	72	-0.2	265/304/452	186	306	25	1	22%	4%	111	+2.3
●Travis d'Arnaud 2010 · A	21	43→53	45→60	45	43	214/259/336	123	248	12	6	20%	5%	63	-0.9	237/282/388	151	299	16	5	26%	5%	85	+0.7	258/318/455	197	288	27	1	20%	7%	115	+1.5
✕Danny Jansen 2015 · A	20	44→54	42→65	46→45	51	214/287/314	101	243	9	5	16%	8%	69	-0.4	202/269/297	95	244	9	6	20%	7%	56	-1.3	233/314/475	242	239	34	1	20%	9%	119	+1.4
✕Gabriel Moreno 2019 · A	19	48	41→45	46→45	43	230/265/333	103	261	7	6	15%	4%	63	-0.9	240/287/381	141	277	14	6	18%	5%	85	+0.7	277/360/410	133	318	13	6	16%	11%	119	+1.6
✕Roan Salas 2010 · A	20	46	50→65	46→40	45	236/285/393	157	263	17	5	18%	6%	88	+0.9	244/297/371	127	282	12	5	17%	6%	87	+0.8	268/322/383	115	301	9	3	14%	6%	98	+0.7