Alirio Ferrebus — OGILVIE

Alirio FerrebusC Clearwater Threshers

Age 20 R/R 6'2" / 174 lbs A HR +11%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 3.4 · 2032

wRC+†99

AVG/OBP/SLG.233 / .299 / .363

PA270

HR6

SB7

K%23

BB%7

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

30↗48

PWR

30↗45

SPD

40↘36

FLD

30↗46

EYE

40→40

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.5peak

2032

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+3.3	$31M	+$30M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+3.4	$32M	+$32M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+3.4	$33M	+$32M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+3.3	$33M	+$27M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$10M	+3.1	$32M	+$22M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$14M	+2.9	$31M	+$17M
Totals		$34M		$194M	+$160M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	75	65	16	2	0	1	4	20	6	3	1	.246	.347	.323	.670	.077	.341	27	5	.283	75	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
2024	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	92	80	22	5	0	3	5	12	4	3	3	.275	.348	.450	.798	.175	.279	13	5	.335	115	+2	-1	+0	+2	+3	0.5
2025	19	A	3 teams	397	362	71	13	1	6	18	88	14	3	1	.196	.261	.287	.549	.091	.240	22	5	.244	45	-25	+0	+0	+7	+11	-0.6
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	20	A	Clearwater Threshers	65	56	15	5	0	2	4	16	4	3	0	.268	.359	.464	.824	.196	.333	25	6	.342	120	+1	+1	+0	+1	+2	0.5
ROS	20	MLB	PHI	205	184	44	9	1	5	14	47	5	4	1	.239	.310	.380	.691	.141	.291	23	7	.307	93	-2	+0	-0	+4	+6	0.8
TOT	20	MLB	PHI	270	240	59	14	1	7	18	63	9	7	1	.246	.322	.400	.722	.154	.302	23	7	.315	99	-0	+1	-0	+5	+8	1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	21	MLB 11%	PHI	337	301	73	15	2	8	25	69	8	6	1	.243	.317	.385	.703	.143	.285	20	7	.315	99	-0	+1	-0	+6	+10	1.6
2028	22	MLB 28%	PHI	429	382	94	19	2	12	34	86	10	7	1	.246	.324	.401	.724	.154	.285	20	8	.321	104	+2	+1	-0	+8	+12	2.3
2029	23	MLB 48%	PHI	489	435	107	21	2	14	40	96	11	7	1	.246	.325	.400	.725	.154	.286	20	8	.327	108	+5	+1	-1	+9	+14	2.8
2030	24	MLB 62%	PHI	520	459	115	23	2	16	44	101	12	7	1	.251	.332	.414	.746	.163	.286	19	8	.331	112	+7	+1	-1	+9	+15	3.2
2031	25	MLB 80%	PHI	520	458	115	23	2	16	45	100	12	7	1	.251	.334	.415	.749	.164	.287	19	9	.334	114	+8	+1	-1	+9	+15	3.3
2032	26	MLB 94%	PHI	520	457	115	23	2	16	46	100	12	6	1	.252	.336	.416	.752	.164	.287	19	9	.336	115	+9	+1	-1	+9	+15	3.4
2033	27	MLB	PHI	520	456	115	23	2	16	47	101	12	6	1	.252	.338	.417	.755	.164	.287	19	9	.336	115	+9	+1	-1	+9	+15	3.4
2034	28	MLB	PHI	520	456	114	22	2	16	47	102	12	5	0	.250	.336	.412	.748	.162	.287	20	9	.335	114	+8	+1	-1	+9	+15	3.3
2035	29	MLB	PHI	520	455	113	22	2	16	48	103	12	5	0	.248	.336	.411	.747	.163	.286	20	9	.333	113	+8	+1	-2	+9	+15	3.1
2036	30	MLB	PHI	520	455	112	22	2	15	48	105	12	4	0	.246	.334	.402	.736	.156	.285	20	9	.330	110	+6	+1	-3	+9	+15	2.9
2037	31	MLB	PHI	504	442	108	21	2	15	46	104	11	3	0	.244	.331	.403	.733	.158	.283	21	9	.326	108	+4	+1	-3	+9	+14	2.5
2038	32	MLB	PHI	478	420	101	20	2	13	44	101	11	3	0	.240	.328	.390	.719	.150	.282	21	9	.321	104	+2	+1	-4	+9	+14	2.1
2039	33	MLB	PHI	436	383	91	17	2	12	40	95	10	2	0	.238	.326	.386	.712	.149	.280	22	9	.316	100	-0	+0	-5	+8	+12	1.6
2040	34	MLB	PHI	380	335	77	15	1	10	34	86	8	2	0	.230	.316	.370	.686	.140	.279	23	9	.309	95	-2	+0	-5	+7	+11	1.0
2041	35	MLB	PHI	321	282	64	12	1	8	29	76	7	2	0	.227	.314	.362	.676	.135	.276	24	9	.301	89	-4	+0	-6	+6	+9	0.5
2042	36	MLB	PHI	262	231	50	9	1	6	23	65	6	2	0	.216	.304	.342	.646	.126	.273	25	9	.292	82	-5	+0	-7	+5	+7	0.0
2043	37	MLB	PHI	201	178	38	7	1	4	17	52	4	2	0	.213	.296	.331	.628	.118	.269	26	8	.282	74	-6	+0	-7	+4	+6	-0.4
2044	38	MLB	PHI	141	125	25	5	0	2	12	37	3	1	0	.200	.286	.288	.574	.088	.264	26	9	.271	66	-5	+0	-8	+3	+4	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8387	7401	1780	348	32	230	710	1746	202	90	13	.241	.324	.389	.713	.149	.283	21	8	.318	102	+17	+13	-55	+150	+238	37.0
/ 162G	—			650	574	138	27	2	18	55	135	16	7	1	.240	.325	.389	.713	.148	.282	21	8	.318	102	+1	+1	-4	+12	+18	2.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	75	62	21	3	0	1	7	15	6	3	1	.339	.453	.435	.889	.097	.435	20	9	.408	170	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.8
2024	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	92	77	27	7	0	3	8	9	4	3	3	.351	.438	.558	.997	.208	.353	10	9	.425	184	+9	-1	—	—	+3	1.1
2025	19	A	Clearwater Threshers	174	160	35	6	0	1	6	28	6	2	0	.219	.272	.275	.547	.056	.258	16	3	.251	50	-10	+0	—	—	+5	-0.4
2025	19	ROK	FCL Phillies	106	90	24	5	1	4	11	17	4	0	1	.267	.371	.478	.849	.211	.286	16	10	.374	144	+5	-0	—	—	+3	0.8
2025	19	INTL	Adelaide Giants	117	111	31	3	0	2	1	8	4	1	0	.279	.310	.360	.671	.081	.284	7	1	.301	88	-2	+0	—	—	+3	0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alirio Ferrebus (OGILVIE)	20	30→48	30→45	40→36	40	.233/.299/.363	.130	.286	6	4	23%	7%	87	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Daniel Robertson 2014 · A	20	46→54	43→45	38→40	46	.227/.287/.337	.110	.280	10	4	22%	7%	74	-0.1	.243/.310/.355	.112	.303	9	3	22%	7%	89	+0.9	.234/.338/.350	.116	.305	12	4	25%	11%	96	+0.8
✕Amadeo Zazueta 2006 · A	20	45→55	45	41→50	44	.223/.269/.352	.130	.262	12	5	20%	6%	70	-0.3	.209/.257/.317	.108	.263	9	5	23%	6%	56	-1.3	.285/.316/.382	.096	.311	8	10	11%	3%	94	+1.0
●Luis Campusano 2019 · A	20	48→55	39→50	40→30	44	.233/.281/.312	.079	.289	7	3	22%	6%	64	-0.8	.250/.305/.387	.137	.294	15	2	20%	7%	95	+1.4	.261/.327/.424	.162	.295	21	1	19%	8%	110	+1.4
●Juan Apodaca 2006 · A	20	41→51	48→45	46→40	40	.217/.257/.353	.136	.263	17	5	25%	5%	66	-0.6	.219/.272/.323	.104	.274	12	5	24%	6%	64	-0.8	.281/.346/.393	.113	.343	10	3	20%	8%	110	+1.3
✕Welington Castillo 2008 · A	21	45→55	44→60	42→30	39	.226/.274/.340	.114	.298	13	4	28%	5%	69	-0.4	.227/.267/.348	.121	.299	13	3	28%	4%	69	-0.4	.256/.312/.443	.187	.311	26	1	26%	7%	109	+1.6
●William Contreras 2019 · A	21	46→56	44→55	44→45	42	.226/.276/.342	.116	.294	12	3	27%	6%	71	-0.3	.218/.269/.335	.117	.287	13	2	28%	6%	66	-0.6	.274/.362/.430	.156	.327	16	6	20%	12%	121	+3.4
●Wilson Ramos 2008 · A	20	47→57	43→55	45→30	41	.233/.274/.344	.111	.282	10	5	22%	4%	70	-0.3	.245/.283/.364	.119	.308	12	2	24%	4%	79	+0.3	.291/.339/.471	.180	.318	24	0	17%	7%	125	+2.3
●Max Ramirez 2006 · A	21	51→52	44→55	43→40	46	.250/.307/.372	.122	.308	12	4	22%	7%	92	+1.2	.247/.323/.392	.145	.323	16	3	27%	9%	104	+2.0	.250/.335/.416	.166	.325	20	2	27%	10%	113	+2.0
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	41→51	47→60	46→45	46	.210/.298/.347	.138	.263	15	10	26%	8%	83	+0.6	.215/.301/.412	.197	.284	25	6	32%	9%	101	+1.8	.261/.318/.433	.172	.316	21	10	23%	6%	110	+1.8
✕Luis Alvarez 2009 · A	19	47	43→45	44→45	48	.230/.303/.339	.110	.271	10	5	19%	7%	82	+0.5	.225/.291/.326	.101	.280	9	5	22%	6%	73	-0.1	.212/.264/.322	.111	.252	13	1	21%	4%	57	-0.3
●Jordan Diaz 2022 · A	21	48→56	49→55	42→30	44	.244/.289/.392	.148	.290	17	5	22%	6%	89	+1.0	.259/.299/.417	.158	.302	19	2	21%	5%	100	+1.7	.260/.302/.420	.160	.301	21	0	21%	5%	99	+1.3
✕Carter Kieboom 2018 · A	20	44→54	48→50	44→45	41	.224/.282/.368	.144	.295	16	5	29%	6%	81	+0.4	.233/.300/.366	.133	.307	15	6	27%	8%	87	+0.8	.230/.308/.354	.123	.305	14	5	27%	9%	84	+0.4
✕Travis Denker 2006 · A	20	45→52	52→50	38→45	49	.233/.303/.397	.164	.282	20	4	25%	9%	97	+1.5	.226/.299/.365	.139	.268	16	4	21%	9%	87	+0.8	.233/.308/.392	.159	.261	18	0	18%	8%	97	+0.8
✕Jake Smolinski 2010 · A	21	46→49	43→55	40→45	46	.226/.283/.343	.117	.273	10	5	21%	7%	74	-0.1	.226/.286/.339	.113	.270	9	6	19%	7%	74	-0.1	.238/.300/.395	.157	.270	17	6	19%	7%	93	+0.9
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2018 · A	20	50→44	42→55	41→45	44	.244/.287/.353	.109	.282	9	4	17%	5%	78	+0.2	.230/.271/.361	.131	.269	15	6	20%	4%	73	-0.1	.219/.264/.387	.168	.253	22	1	23%	4%	76	+0.0
✕Victor Heredia 2019 · A	19	47	44→50	42→30	40	.230/.273/.349	.119	.292	11	4	25%	4%	71	-0.3	.214/.267/.303	.089	.290	7	4	27%	6%	56	-1.3	.176/.240/.214	.038	.249	3	2	28%	6%	21	-1.0
●Tyler Stephenson 2018 · A	21	45→54	40→50	43→30	44	.215/.276/.305	.091	.289	7	3	27%	7%	61	-1.0	.219/.289/.327	.108	.291	10	3	27%	7%	72	-0.2	.253/.327/.399	.146	.323	16	1	25%	9%	102	+1.3
●Jonathan Schoop 2013 · AA	21	46→56	44→60	44→45	44	.230/.279/.348	.118	.273	12	6	21%	6%	73	-0.1	.229/.271/.369	.140	.277	18	4	24%	4%	76	+0.1	.276/.314/.469	.194	.320	25	1	22%	4%	118	+2.8
✕Roan Salas 2010 · A	20	46	48→65	46→40	45	.235/.283/.379	.144	.263	16	5	18%	6%	83	+0.6	.245/.298/.376	.131	.281	12	5	17%	6%	89	+0.9	.268/.322/.383	.115	.301	9	3	14%	6%	98	+0.7
✕Yeiner Fernandez 2023 · A	20	51→52	42→40	42→45	46	.247/.307/.349	.102	.301	9	4	21%	6%	85	+0.7	.233/.297/.317	.084	.279	7	5	18%	7%	73	-0.1	.225/.290/.290	.065	.266	4	5	16%	6%	61	-0.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)