Alirio Ferrebus — OGILVIE

Alirio FerrebusC Clearwater Threshers

Age 20 R/R 6'2" / 174 lbs A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION328 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†100

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .111 / .111

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%4

BABIP298

ISO127

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$102M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 48 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT48

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED36

scouting grade only

DEFENSE46

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.1	$12M	+$12M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.2	$12M	+$12M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.2	$11M	+$11M
2033	Arb-1	$6M	+2.2	$10M	+$7M
2034	Arb-2	$10M	+2.1	$9M	+$5M
2035	Arb-3	$14M	+1.9	$8M	+$2M
Totals		$33M		$63M	+$49M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	—	75	62	21	3	0	1	7	15	6	3	1	339	453	435	889	97	435	20	9	408	162	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.8
2024	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	92	77	27	7	0	3	8	9	4	3	3	351	438	558	997	208	353	10	9	425	174	+8	-1	—	—	+2	1.0
2025	19	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	174	160	35	6	0	1	6	28	6	2	0	219	272	275	547	56	258	16	3	251	56	-9	+0	—	—	+4	-0.5
2025	19	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	106	90	24	5	1	4	11	17	4	0	1	267	371	478	849	211	286	16	10	374	139	+5	-0	—	—	+2	0.7
2025	19	INTL	Adelaide Giants	—	117	111	31	3	0	2	1	8	4	1	0	279	310	360	671	81	284	7	1	301	90	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	75	65	16	2	0	1	4	21	6	3	1	246	347	323	670	77	338	28	5	288	81	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.0
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	92	80	22	5	0	3	5	12	4	3	3	275	348	450	798	175	268	13	5	335	113	+1	-1	—	—	+2	0.3
2025	19	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	174	162	32	6	0	1	5	37	6	2	0	198	249	253	502	56	239	21	3	217	33	-14	+0	—	—	+4	-1.0
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	106	94	20	4	1	3	7	24	4	0	1	213	295	372	668	160	232	23	7	283	78	-3	-0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	75	65	16	2	0	1	4	21	6	3	1	246	347	323	670	77	349	28	5	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	—	75	62	21	3	0	1	7	15	6	3	1	339	453	435	889	97	435	20	9	408	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	92	80	22	5	0	3	5	12	4	3	3	275	348	450	798	175	279	13	5	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	—	92	77	27	7	0	3	8	9	4	3	3	351	438	558	997	208	353	10	9	425	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	397	363	71	13	1	6	17	88	14	3	1	196	259	287	545	91	239	22	4	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A RAW	3 teams	—	397	361	90	14	1	7	18	53	14	3	1	249	310	352	661	102	273	13	5	299	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	75	65	16	2	0	1	4	21	6	3	1	246	347	323	670	77	338	28	5	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	92	83	22	5	0	3	5	12	4	3	3	265	348	434	782	169	268	13	5	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	397	363	71	13	1	6	17	88	14	3	1	196	259	287	545	91	236	22	4	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	75	65	16	2	0	1	4	21	6	3	1	246	347	323	670	77	338	28	5	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	92	83	22	5	0	3	5	12	4	3	3	265	348	434	782	169	268	13	5	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	397	363	71	13	1	6	17	88	14	3	1	196	259	287	545	91	236	22	4	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A MLE	PHI	—	328	298	83	20	0	9	13	59	11	6	1	279	332	436	769	158	314	18	4	334	112	+5	+1	+0	+6	+7	1.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A RAW	PHI	—	307	275	89	21	0	11	16	40	10	5	1	324	382	520	902	196	339	13	5	391	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A+ RAW	PHI	—	21	19	2	0	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	105	190	105	296		118	10	5	154	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	A MLE	PHI	0%	9	9	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	111	111	111	222		295	22	0	316	100	+0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	20	A MLE	PHI	—	337	307	84	20	0	9	13	61	11	6	1	274	326	427	753	153	309	18	4	333	112	+5	+1	-0	+6	+7	1.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	PHI	48%	378	347	90	20	1	10	17	68	11	4	1	259	315	409	724	150	294	18	4	319	102	+1	+0	-0	+7	+8	1.6
2028	22	MLB MLE	PHI	68%	459	420	110	24	1	13	23	82	13	5	1	262	320	417	737	155	294	18	5	324	106	+3	+1	-1	+8	+10	2.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	PHI	76%	509	463	122	26	1	15	27	91	14	5	1	263	323	421	745	158	295	18	5	328	108	+5	+1	-1	+9	+11	2.6
2030	24	MLB MLE	PHI	78%	520	473	124	27	1	15	28	92	14	5	1	262	322	419	741	156	296	18	5	331	110	+6	+1	-1	+9	+11	2.7
2031	25	MLB MLE	PHI	79%	520	473	125	27	1	16	28	92	14	5	1	264	324	427	751	163	296	18	5	332	111	+7	+1	-1	+9	+11	2.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	PHI	79%	520	472	125	27	1	16	29	92	14	5	1	265	326	428	754	163	296	18	6	333	111	+7	+1	-1	+9	+11	2.8
2033	27	MLB MLE	PHI	78%	520	472	125	27	1	16	29	92	14	5	1	265	326	428	754	163	295	18	6	333	112	+7	+1	-1	+9	+11	2.8
2034	28	MLB MLE	PHI	77%	520	471	125	27	1	16	30	93	14	5	1	265	328	429	757	163	295	18	6	332	111	+7	+1	-1	+9	+11	2.7
2035	29	MLB MLE	PHI	75%	520	471	124	27	1	15	30	94	14	5	1	263	326	420	747	157	294	18	6	330	110	+6	+1	-2	+9	+11	2.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	PHI	74%	520	471	122	26	1	15	30	95	14	4	1	259	322	414	736	155	293	18	6	327	108	+5	+0	-3	+9	+11	2.3
2037	31	MLB MLE	PHI	73%	504	457	117	25	1	14	29	94	13	4	1	256	319	407	726	151	291	19	6	323	105	+3	+0	-3	+9	+11	2.0
2038	32	MLB MLE	PHI	72%	478	436	109	23	1	13	27	91	12	3	1	250	312	397	708	147	287	19	6	317	101	+0	+0	-4	+9	+10	1.6
2039	33	MLB MLE	PHI	72%	436	397	96	20	0	11	25	85	11	2	1	242	305	375	680	134	283	19	6	309	96	-2	+0	-5	+8	+9	1.0
2040	34	MLB MLE	PHI	68%	381	347	81	16	0	9	21	77	10	1	0	233	296	357	654	124	277	20	6	300	89	-5	+0	-5	+7	+8	0.5
2041	35	MLB MLE	PHI	63%	321	292	66	13	0	7	18	67	8	1	0	226	289	342	632	116	270	21	6	289	82	-7	+0	-6	+6	+7	-0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	PHI	48%	183	168	44	10	0	5	8	33	5	2	1	262	315	411	726	149	297	18	4	304	102	+1	+0	-0	+3	+4	0.8
2028	22	MLB CTX	PHI	68%	313	285	76	17	1	9	16	56	9	3	1	267	326	428	754	161	297	18	5	310	106	+2	+0	-0	+6	+7	1.5
2029	23	MLB CTX	PHI	76%	388	355	94	20	1	12	20	69	10	4	1	265	322	428	750	163	298	18	5	314	108	+4	+0	-0	+7	+8	1.9
2030	24	MLB CTX	PHI	78%	405	369	99	21	1	13	22	72	11	4	1	268	328	436	765	168	299	18	5	318	110	+5	+0	-0	+7	+9	2.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	PHI	79%	409	373	100	22	1	13	22	72	11	4	1	268	328	437	765	169	299	18	5	319	111	+5	+0	-0	+7	+9	2.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	PHI	79%	411	374	101	22	1	13	23	72	11	4	1	270	331	439	769	168	299	18	6	320	111	+6	+0	-0	+7	+9	2.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	PHI	78%	403	366	98	21	1	13	23	71	11	4	1	268	330	437	767	169	298	18	6	320	112	+6	+0	-0	+7	+9	2.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	PHI	77%	400	363	97	21	1	13	23	71	11	4	1	267	330	438	768	171	298	18	6	319	111	+5	+0	-1	+7	+9	2.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	PHI	75%	389	354	94	20	1	12	22	70	10	4	1	266	326	429	756	164	297	18	6	317	110	+4	+0	-1	+7	+8	1.9
2036	30	MLB CTX	PHI	74%	382	347	92	20	1	12	22	70	10	3	1	265	327	432	759	167	296	18	6	314	108	+3	+0	-2	+7	+8	1.7
2037	31	MLB CTX	PHI	73%	367	333	87	19	1	11	21	68	10	3	1	261	324	423	748	162	294	19	6	310	105	+2	+0	-2	+7	+8	1.5
2038	32	MLB CTX	PHI	72%	346	314	80	17	0	10	20	66	9	2	1	255	318	404	722	150	290	19	6	304	101	+0	+0	-3	+6	+7	1.1
2039	33	MLB CTX	PHI	72%	315	286	71	15	0	9	18	61	8	1	0	248	311	395	706	147	286	19	6	296	96	-2	+0	-3	+6	+7	0.8
2040	34	MLB CTX	PHI	68%	258	234	56	11	0	7	15	52	7	1	0	239	305	376	681	137	279	20	6	286	89	-3	+0	-4	+5	+6	0.3
2041	35	MLB CTX	PHI	63%	203	185	43	8	0	5	11	42	5	0	0	232	294	357	650	124	272	21	5	275	82	-4	+0	-4	+4	+4	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5172	4706	1232	264	10	157	286	945	138	43	12	262	323	422	745	160	296	18	6	311	102	+34	+4	-23	+92	+112	22.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	155	33	1	20	36	119	17	5	2	262	322	423	745	161	297	18	6	311	102	+4	+0	-3	+12	+14	2.8
Career	—	MLE		—	7679	6979	1771	375	13	211	417	1428	214	68	18	254	316	402	718	148	290	19	5	319	102	+43	+7	-33	+127	+154	30.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	150	32	1	18	35	121	18	6	2	254	315	403	718	149	289	19	5	319	102	+4	+1	-3	+12	+14	2.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Asdrúbal Cabreralast yr '21 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,401 PA	11.1	7,401	195	91	266	329	423	+58	+11	38.2	32.2
/162	664	17	8	+5.2	+1.0	3.4	pk7: 26
#2Stephen Drewlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,917 PA	7.4	4,917	123	41	252	318	423	+48	+35	26.3	25.1
/162	664	17	6	+6.5	+4.7	3.5	pk7: 24
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	8.2	5,474	154	47	258	315	410	+91	-16	28.1	22.5
/162	664	19	6	+11.0	-2.0	3.4	pk7: 17
#3Kurt Suzukilast yr '22 career totals — 16 seasons, 6,163 PA	9.3	6,163	143	20	255	314	388	+110	-35	22.7	20.5
/162	664	15	2	+11.9	-3.8	2.4	pk7: 18
#4Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	6.4	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#5Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#6Welington Castillolast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,667 PA	4.0	2,667	97	5	254	313	425	+48	-14	13.3	13.2
/162	664	24	1	+11.9	-3.4	3.3	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alirio Ferrebus (OGILVIE)	20	30→48	30→45	40→36	40	256/310/394	138	295	7	4	18%	4%	100	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Luis Campusano 2019 · A	20	49→54	39→55	40→30	43	233/280/309	76	292	7	3	22%	5%	67	-1.1	249/304/385	136	294	15	3	20%	7%	95	+0.9	257/334/422	165	298	20	1	20%	10%	111	+1.3
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2018 · A	20	50→44	43→50	40→45	44	245/288/356	111	285	9	4	18%	5%	81	-0.1	228/267/357	129	270	15	7	21%	4%	74	-0.5	225/263/372	146	262	18	5	22%	3%	75	-0.4
✕Luis Alvarez 2009 · A	19	47	43→45	44→45	48	231/306/343	112	272	11	5	19%	7%	86	+0.3	224/289/325	101	280	9	6	22%	6%	76	-0.4	212/264/322	110	252	12	1	21%	4%	62	-0.3
✕Alejandro Segovia 2010 · A	20	47→45	43→50	42→30	46	229/284/337	108	250	10	4	14%	5%	76	-0.4	218/267/325	107	257	10	4	19%	5%	67	-1.1	221/290/366	146	257	17	1	21%	6%	82	+0.0
●Max Ramirez 2006 · A	21	52	45→50	42→40	46	252/309/376	123	309	12	4	22%	7%	94	+0.9	250/330/394	144	330	16	3	27%	10%	107	+1.8	253/341/414	160	333	19	2	27%	10%	113	+1.7
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	43→53	46→55	46→50	46	214/297/344	130	275	14	9	26%	8%	84	+0.1	213/299/399	186	281	23	6	32%	9%	97	+1.1	266/322/445	180	311	23	10	22%	6%	115	+2.3
✕Daniel Robertson 2015 · A	21	51→54	44→45	38→40	48	246/312/362	116	301	11	3	21%	7%	93	+0.8	236/307/338	102	302	7	4	23%	7%	85	+0.2	232/336/343	111	304	11	4	25%	11%	96	+0.6
✕Jordan Diaz 2022 · A	21	48→57	48→55	41→30	43	244/288/390	146	290	16	5	22%	6%	90	+0.6	259/299/413	154	303	18	2	21%	5%	99	+1.3	261/303/419	158	303	20	0	21%	5%	99	+1.0
●Wilson Ramos 2008 · A	20	47→57	43→55	45→30	40	232/271/342	111	286	10	4	23%	4%	72	-0.7	244/281/361	117	307	11	2	24%	4%	80	-0.2	288/336/468	180	314	24	0	17%	7%	121	+1.9
✕Victor Heredia 2019 · A	19	47	44→50	42→30	39	232/274/353	122	292	11	4	25%	4%	76	-0.4	213/267/301	88	291	7	5	28%	6%	61	-1.5	176/240/214	38	249	3	2	28%	6%	30	-1.0
✕Welington Castillo 2008 · A	21	45→55	44→55	41→30	37	223/271/336	113	301	13	4	30%	5%	71	-0.8	226/265/343	117	296	12	3	27%	4%	70	-0.8	253/309/434	181	307	25	1	26%	7%	105	+1.1
✕Juan Apodaca 2006 · A	20	42→52	48→45	46→40	40	218/258/353	135	265	17	4	25%	5%	70	-0.8	222/276/323	101	282	11	5	24%	6%	70	-0.9	275/342/379	104	339	9	3	20%	8%	104	+0.9
✕Yeiner Fernandez 2023 · A	20	51	42→40	42→45	46	247/308/350	103	299	10	4	20%	6%	88	+0.4	232/296/314	82	277	6	5	18%	7%	75	-0.5	228/292/293	65	269	4	5	16%	6%	67	-0.8
✕Jake Smolinski 2010 · A	21	48→50	43→55	39→45	48	232/293/350	118	281	10	5	21%	7%	82	+0.0	227/289/334	107	272	8	7	18%	7%	77	-0.3	239/301/393	154	272	16	6	18%	6%	93	+0.6
●Josmil Pinto 2011 · A	22	41→51	47→50	41→40	42	213/260/352	138	256	15	3	24%	5%	70	-0.8	232/281/369	137	286	14	2	23%	6%	82	+0.0	252/318/406	154	302	16	0	21%	8%	102	+1.2
✕Jairo Marquez 2008 · A	20	52	41→40	45	49	251/309/347	97	277	8	5	13%	6%	87	+0.4	224/275/317	93	252	7	6	14%	5%	68	-1.0	206/259/284	79	226	6	6	12%	6%	51	-0.6
✕Brendan Rodgers 2018 · AA	21	47→54	46→50	42→45	38	235/275/365	130	298	14	4	26%	4%	79	-0.2	233/278/363	130	293	14	7	25%	5%	80	-0.2	256/311/394	138	303	15	0	20%	6%	98	+0.8
✕Danny Jansen 2015 · A	20	44→54	42→65	46→45	51	214/287/314	101	243	9	5	16%	8%	73	-0.6	206/273/301	95	247	9	6	20%	7%	64	-1.3	233/314/474	241	240	33	1	20%	9%	117	+1.1
✕Colton Welker 2018 · A	20	53→55	42→45	42→45	41	256/291/362	107	307	9	7	20%	4%	84	+0.1	236/277/340	104	306	9	5	25%	5%	73	-0.6	224/269/326	102	292	10	3	26%	5%	67	-0.6
✕Orlando Gonzalez 2007 · A	21	49	41→40	40→45	43	234/290/330	96	275	8	7	18%	4%	77	-0.3	237/294/326	89	263	8	5	13%	5%	77	-0.3	252/309/328	76	263	8	3	8%	5%	81	-0.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps