Alirio Ferrebus
C Clearwater Threshers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKPHI | 92 | .351/.438/.558 | 3 | 3 | 115 | — | .275/.348/.450 |
| 2025 | 19 | A/ROK/INTL2 orgs | 397 | .249/.310/.352 | 7 | 3 | 61 | — | .203/.263/.293 |
| 2026 | 20 | A+/APHI | 328 | .310/.370/.493 | 11 | 6 | 105 | — | .278/.329/.428 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBPHI | 438 | .247/.297/.377 | 10 | 5 | 89 | 0.6 | |
| 2028PROJ43% MLB | 22 | MLBPHI | 115 | .251/.303/.392 | 3 | 1 | 93 | 0.3 | |
| 2029PROJ61% MLB | 23 | MLBPHI | 216 | .253/.306/.399 | 6 | 3 | 96 | 0.7 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | — | 75 | 62 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 339 | 453 | 435 | 889 | 97 | 435 | 20 | 9 | 408 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | FCL Phillies | — | 92 | 77 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 351 | 438 | 558 | 997 | 208 | 353 | 10 | 9 | 425 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 174 | 160 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 219 | 272 | 275 | 547 | 56 | 258 | 16 | 3 | 251 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Phillies | — | 106 | 90 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 267 | 371 | 478 | 849 | 211 | 286 | 16 | 10 | 374 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | INTL | Adelaide Giants | — | 117 | 111 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 279 | 310 | 360 | 671 | 81 | 284 | 7 | 1 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 21 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 105 | 190 | 105 | 296 | 118 | 10 | 5 | 154 | -31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 307 | 275 | 89 | 21 | 0 | 11 | 16 | 40 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 324 | 382 | 520 | 902 | 196 | 339 | 13 | 5 | 391 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies Red | — | 75 | 64 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 219 | 333 | 250 | 583 | 31 | 281 | 24 | 7 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 92 | 80 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 275 | 348 | 450 | 798 | 175 | 270 | 13 | 5 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 174 | 163 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 196 | 243 | 245 | 488 | 49 | 240 | 21 | 2 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 106 | 94 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 213 | 295 | 372 | 668 | 160 | 231 | 23 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 21 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 105 | 190 | 105 | 296 | 105 | 14 | 5 | 122 | -31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 307 | 280 | 81 | 18 | 0 | 9 | 11 | 54 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 289 | 339 | 450 | 789 | 161 | 312 | 18 | 4 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies Red | — | 75 | 64 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 219 | 333 | 250 | 583 | 31 | 304 | 24 | 7 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Phillies Red | — | 75 | 62 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 339 | 453 | 435 | 889 | 97 | 435 | 20 | 9 | 408 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 92 | 80 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 275 | 348 | 450 | 798 | 175 | 279 | 13 | 5 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Phillies | — | 92 | 77 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 351 | 438 | 558 | 997 | 208 | 353 | 10 | 9 | 425 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 397 | 363 | 73 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 85 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 201 | 264 | 292 | 556 | 91 | 244 | 21 | 4 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 397 | 361 | 90 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 53 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 249 | 310 | 352 | 661 | 102 | 273 | 13 | 5 | 299 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 328 | 299 | 83 | 18 | 0 | 9 | 12 | 57 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 278 | 329 | 428 | 757 | 151 | 310 | 17 | 4 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 328 | 294 | 91 | 21 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 310 | 370 | 493 | 863 | 184 | 324 | 13 | 5 | 376 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies Red | — | 75 | 64 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 219 | 333 | 250 | 583 | 31 | 281 | 24 | 7 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 92 | 83 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 265 | 348 | 434 | 782 | 169 | 270 | 13 | 5 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 397 | 363 | 73 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 85 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 201 | 264 | 292 | 556 | 91 | 237 | 21 | 4 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 328 | 302 | 83 | 18 | 0 | 9 | 12 | 57 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 275 | 329 | 424 | 753 | 149 | 299 | 17 | 4 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 92 | 83 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 265 | 348 | 434 | 782 | 169 | 270 | 13 | 5 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 397 | 363 | 73 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 85 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 201 | 264 | 292 | 556 | 91 | 237 | 21 | 4 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 328 | 302 | 83 | 18 | 0 | 9 | 12 | 57 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 275 | 329 | 424 | 753 | 149 | 299 | 17 | 4 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | PHI | 0% | 438 | 406 | 100 | 21 | 1 | 10 | 18 | 75 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 247 | 297 | 377 | 674 | 130 | 278 | 17 | 4 | 300 | 89 | -6 | +1 | -3 | +8 | +9 | 0.6 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | PHI | 43% | 266 | 245 | 63 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 45 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 249 | 301 | 386 | 687 | 137 | 279 | 17 | 5 | 306 | 93 | -2 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | PHI | 61% | 355 | 327 | 82 | 17 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 60 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 251 | 305 | 393 | 697 | 141 | 280 | 17 | 5 | 310 | 96 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +8 | 1.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | PHI | 66% | 412 | 379 | 95 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 20 | 71 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 253 | 307 | 397 | 704 | 144 | 281 | 17 | 5 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +9 | 1.5 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | PHI | 69% | 444 | 408 | 103 | 21 | 1 | 12 | 23 | 77 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 253 | 308 | 399 | 707 | 146 | 282 | 17 | 5 | 314 | 99 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +8 | +10 | 1.7 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | PHI | 70% | 445 | 408 | 103 | 21 | 1 | 12 | 24 | 78 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 252 | 309 | 399 | 708 | 147 | 282 | 18 | 5 | 315 | 99 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +8 | +10 | 1.7 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | PHI | 69% | 445 | 408 | 103 | 21 | 1 | 12 | 24 | 79 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 251 | 308 | 396 | 704 | 145 | 282 | 18 | 5 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +8 | +10 | 1.6 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | PHI | 68% | 445 | 408 | 101 | 20 | 1 | 12 | 24 | 80 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 249 | 306 | 392 | 697 | 143 | 281 | 18 | 5 | 310 | 96 | -2 | +0 | -2 | +8 | +10 | 1.4 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | PHI | 67% | 445 | 410 | 101 | 20 | 1 | 12 | 23 | 81 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 247 | 303 | 385 | 688 | 139 | 279 | 18 | 5 | 307 | 94 | -3 | +0 | -2 | +8 | +10 | 1.2 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | PHI | 66% | 441 | 406 | 99 | 20 | 1 | 11 | 23 | 82 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 244 | 299 | 378 | 677 | 134 | 278 | 19 | 5 | 302 | 90 | -5 | -0 | -3 | +8 | +10 | 0.9 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB MLE | PHI | 65% | 406 | 374 | 90 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 77 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 239 | 294 | 368 | 662 | 128 | 275 | 19 | 5 | 296 | 86 | -7 | +0 | -4 | +7 | +9 | 0.6 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB MLE | PHI | 65% | 366 | 338 | 79 | 16 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 71 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 288 | 355 | 643 | 121 | 271 | 19 | 5 | 288 | 81 | -8 | +0 | -4 | +7 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB MLE | PHI | 65% | 315 | 291 | 66 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 63 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 280 | 339 | 619 | 112 | 266 | 20 | 5 | 278 | 74 | -10 | +0 | -5 | +6 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | PHI | 43% | 115 | 106 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 251 | 303 | 392 | 695 | 141 | 279 | 17 | 4 | 309 | 93 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +2 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | PHI | 61% | 216 | 199 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 37 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 253 | 306 | 399 | 705 | 146 | 280 | 17 | 5 | 313 | 96 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.7 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | PHI | 66% | 273 | 252 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 47 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 254 | 309 | 404 | 713 | 149 | 282 | 17 | 5 | 316 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 1.0 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | PHI | 69% | 305 | 279 | 72 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 53 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 254 | 310 | 406 | 716 | 152 | 282 | 17 | 5 | 318 | 99 | -0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +7 | 1.2 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | PHI | 70% | 311 | 284 | 72 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 55 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 254 | 311 | 406 | 717 | 152 | 282 | 18 | 5 | 318 | 99 | -0 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | 1.2 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | PHI | 69% | 307 | 281 | 71 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 54 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 253 | 310 | 403 | 713 | 151 | 282 | 18 | 5 | 316 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +7 | 1.1 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | PHI | 68% | 305 | 279 | 71 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 55 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 251 | 307 | 399 | 706 | 148 | 281 | 18 | 5 | 314 | 96 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +7 | 1.0 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | PHI | 67% | 297 | 273 | 68 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 54 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 248 | 304 | 392 | 696 | 144 | 280 | 18 | 5 | 310 | 94 | -2 | -0 | -2 | +5 | +6 | 0.8 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | PHI | 66% | 290 | 267 | 66 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 54 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 301 | 384 | 685 | 139 | 278 | 19 | 5 | 305 | 90 | -3 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB CTX | PHI | 65% | 264 | 244 | 58 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 50 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 296 | 374 | 669 | 133 | 275 | 19 | 5 | 299 | 86 | -4 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB CTX | PHI | 65% | 237 | 218 | 52 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 46 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 289 | 360 | 649 | 125 | 271 | 19 | 5 | 290 | 81 | -5 | +0 | -3 | +4 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB CTX | PHI | 65% | 203 | 187 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 41 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 228 | 281 | 345 | 626 | 116 | 266 | 20 | 5 | 280 | 74 | -6 | +0 | -3 | +4 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3123 | 2869 | 714 | 139 | 8 | 86 | 159 | 566 | 68 | 20 | 7 | 249 | 304 | 393 | 697 | 144 | 281 | 18 | 5 | 308 | 90 | -27 | +1 | -17 | +56 | +68 | 8.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 597 | 149 | 29 | 2 | 18 | 33 | 118 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 250 | 304 | 395 | 699 | 146 | 282 | 18 | 5 | 308 | 90 | -6 | +0 | -4 | +12 | +14 | 1.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5887 | 5403 | 1325 | 267 | 11 | 145 | 290 | 1072 | 145 | 50 | 16 | 245 | 301 | 379 | 681 | 134 | 279 | 18 | 5 | 301 | 90 | -45 | +3 | -28 | +89 | +108 | 13.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 146 | 29 | 1 | 16 | 32 | 118 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 245 | 301 | 377 | 678 | 132 | 278 | 18 | 5 | 301 | 90 | -6 | +0 | -4 | +12 | +14 | 1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AClearwater Threshers · 307 PAwOBA .387 → .336 (−51)K% 13.0% → 17.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.03% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 17.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 3.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.26% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.021 | ×1.015 | 23.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.021 | ×1.015 | 7.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.021 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.80% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .387 → .336; ISO .196 → .162; BABIP .339 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 21 PAwOBA .151 → .122 (−29)K% 9.5% → 12.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.52% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 12.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 2.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.76% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 3.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 10.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .151 → .122; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .118 → .105. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AClearwater Threshers · 174 PAwOBA .246 → .215 (−31)K% 16.1% → 20.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.09% | ÷1.065 | ×1.360 | — | — | 20.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.45% | ÷0.975 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 2.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.45% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 2.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.21% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×1.024 | ×1.030 | 19.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | ×1.024 | ×1.030 | 4.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.923 | ×0.910 | ×1.024 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.76% | ÷1.083 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.58% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 85, K 113, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .246 → .215; ISO .056 → .047; BABIP .258 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Phillies · 106 PAwOBA .368 → .281 (−86)K% 16.0% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.04% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 23.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.38% | ÷0.928 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 6.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.77% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.18% | ÷1.004 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 16.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.85% | ÷1.015 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 5.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.37% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.48% | ÷0.917 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 4.64% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 100, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .368 → .281; ISO .211 → .165; BABIP .286 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Phillies · 92 PAwOBA .428 → .338 (−90)K% 9.8% → 13.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.78% | ÷1.042 | ×1.440 | — | — | 13.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷0.982 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 5.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.35% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 3.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.073 | ×0.820 | ×1.020 | ×1.008 | 19.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.29% | ÷1.015 | ×0.720 | ×1.020 | ×1.008 | 7.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.994 | ×0.720 | ×1.020 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.41% | ÷0.924 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 3.75% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 115, 2B 103, 3B 99, K 108, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .428 → .338; ISO .208 → .174; BABIP .353 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Phillies Red · 75 PAwOBA .398 → .264 (−134)K% 20.0% → 23.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.035 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.33% | ÷1.036 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 6.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 8.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 5.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.17% | ÷1.028 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.008 | 24.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.38% | ÷1.032 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.008 | 3.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.981 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.13% | ÷1.046 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.96% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 106, 2B 106, 3B 96, K 107, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .398 → .264; ISO .097 → .052; BABIP .435 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .