Alfredo Duno — OGILVIE

Alfredo DunoC Dayton Dragons

Age 21 R/R 6'2" / 210 lbs A+ HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†95

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .312 / .390

PA34

HR1

K%26

BB%12

BABIP258

ISO133

MLB%11%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$71M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 47 / POW 64

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT47

scouting grade only

POWER64

scouting grade only

EYE63

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE53

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$9M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$14M	+$14M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.4	$15M	+$15M
2031	Arb-1	$7M	+2.6	$16M	+$11M
2032	Arb-2	$12M	+2.7	$16M	+$8M
2033	Arb-3	$18M	+2.6	$14M	+$4M
Totals		$40M		$84M	+$61M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	195	152	46	9	1	6	38	41	4	6	0	303	454	493	947	191	377	21	19	422	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	139	116	31	7	1	3	18	40	2	2	0	267	375	422	797	155	368	29	13	352	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	495	390	112	32	2	18	95	91	6	6	6	287	434	518	952	231	330	18	19	418	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	59	47	10	2	1	0	11	16	0	1	0	213	362	298	660	85	312	27	19	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	138	121	39	9	1	3	17	23	0	3	0	322	406	488	893	165	379	17	12	397	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	295	242	63	13	0	16	49	79	3	2	0	260	391	512	904	252	318	27	17	397	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	195	164	31	6	1	3	26	51	4	6	0	189	314	293	607	104	240	26	13	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	139	121	25	5	1	2	13	55	2	2	0	207	294	314	608	107	334	40	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	495	414	98	25	2	14	71	123	6	6	6	237	356	408	765	171	292	25	14	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	138	126	36	8	1	3	12	28	0	3	0	286	348	437	784	151	346	20	9	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	295	256	53	10	0	13	35	100	3	2	0	207	310	398	708	191	278	34	12	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	195	164	31	6	1	3	26	51	4	6	0	189	314	293	607	104	252	26	13	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	—	195	152	46	9	1	6	38	41	4	6	0	303	454	493	947	191	377	21	19	422	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	139	121	25	5	1	2	13	55	2	2	0	207	294	314	608	107	343	40	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	—	139	116	31	7	1	3	18	40	2	2	0	267	375	422	797	155	368	29	13	352	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	554	464	110	28	2	16	79	137	6	7	6	237	355	409	765	172	297	25	14	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	554	437	122	34	3	18	106	107	6	7	6	279	426	494	921	215	328	19	19	406	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	433	382	88	18	1	15	47	128	3	5	0	230	319	401	720	170	304	30	11	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	433	363	102	22	1	19	66	102	3	5	0	281	396	504	900	223	342	24	15	397	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	195	163	31	6	1	3	26	51	4	6	0	190	314	294	609	104	240	26	13	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	139	123	25	5	1	2	13	55	2	2	0	203	294	309	603	106	334	40	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	554	464	110	28	2	16	79	137	6	7	6	237	355	409	765	172	292	25	14	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	433	380	88	18	1	15	47	128	3	5	0	232	319	403	722	171	300	30	11	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	139	123	25	5	1	2	13	55	2	2	0	203	294	309	603	106	334	40	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	554	464	110	28	2	16	79	137	6	7	6	237	355	409	765	172	292	25	14	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	433	380	88	18	1	15	47	128	3	5	0	232	319	403	722	171	300	30	11	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CIN	11%	543	472	101	21	2	18	62	139	4	6	1	212	310	379	688	166	257	26	11	309	95	-3	+1	-0	+10	+12	1.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	21	MLB CTX	CIN	11%	34	30	6	1	0	1	4	9	0	0	0	215	312	390	702	175	258	26	12	314	95	-0	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	CIN	59%	520	451	100	20	2	19	60	131	4	6	1	219	316	394	710	175	263	25	12	317	101	+0	+1	+0	+9	+11	2.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	CIN	76%	520	452	103	20	2	21	59	128	4	6	1	227	322	416	738	189	266	25	11	328	108	+5	+1	+1	+9	+11	2.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	CIN	80%	520	452	105	20	2	22	59	126	4	6	1	232	326	429	755	197	269	24	11	334	112	+8	+1	+1	+9	+11	3.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	CIN	81%	520	452	106	20	2	23	59	125	4	6	1	234	328	437	765	203	270	24	11	338	115	+9	+1	+2	+9	+11	3.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	CIN	82%	520	452	106	20	2	23	59	125	4	6	1	235	329	441	769	206	270	24	11	340	116	+10	+1	+2	+9	+11	3.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	CIN	80%	520	452	106	20	2	23	59	126	4	5	1	234	328	438	765	204	269	24	11	338	115	+9	+1	+2	+9	+11	3.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	CIN	80%	520	452	106	20	2	23	59	127	4	4	1	232	325	433	758	201	268	24	11	335	113	+8	+0	+1	+9	+11	3.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	CIN	77%	520	452	103	20	1	22	59	129	4	2	1	229	323	426	749	197	266	25	11	332	111	+7	+0	+0	+9	+11	2.8
2036	30	MLB MLE	CIN	76%	520	453	102	19	1	22	58	130	4	1	1	226	319	418	737	192	264	25	11	327	107	+5	-0	-0	+9	+11	2.5
2037	31	MLB MLE	CIN	76%	504	440	97	18	1	20	56	128	3	1	0	222	314	408	722	186	261	25	11	321	103	+2	+0	-1	+9	+11	2.1
2038	32	MLB MLE	CIN	75%	489	429	92	17	1	19	54	127	3	0	0	216	308	394	702	178	256	26	11	313	98	-1	+0	-2	+9	+11	1.7
2039	33	MLB MLE	CIN	75%	470	414	87	16	1	18	51	125	2	0	0	209	300	378	678	169	251	27	11	303	91	-5	+0	-3	+8	+10	1.1
2040	34	MLB MLE	CIN	71%	413	364	74	13	1	15	44	112	2	0	0	201	290	358	649	158	244	27	11	292	84	-8	+0	-4	+7	+9	0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	CIN	59%	308	268	60	12	1	12	35	78	2	4	1	223	318	406	725	184	264	25	11	323	101	+0	+0	+0	+6	+7	1.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	CIN	76%	394	343	79	15	1	17	45	97	3	5	1	231	325	430	755	199	268	25	11	334	108	+4	+1	+0	+7	+9	2.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	CIN	80%	413	360	85	16	1	19	47	100	3	5	1	236	329	444	773	208	270	24	11	341	112	+6	+1	+1	+7	+9	2.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	CIN	81%	421	367	87	16	1	20	48	102	3	5	1	238	331	452	784	214	271	24	11	345	115	+7	+1	+1	+8	+9	2.6
2032	26	MLB CTX	CIN	82%	424	370	87	16	1	20	48	102	3	5	1	239	332	456	788	217	271	24	11	347	116	+8	+1	+1	+8	+9	2.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	CIN	80%	417	364	86	16	1	20	47	101	3	4	1	238	331	453	784	216	271	24	11	345	115	+7	+0	+1	+7	+9	2.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	CIN	80%	414	361	86	16	1	20	47	101	3	3	1	236	329	448	777	212	270	24	11	342	113	+6	+0	+1	+7	+9	2.4
2035	29	MLB CTX	CIN	77%	403	351	82	15	1	19	46	100	3	2	1	233	326	441	767	208	268	25	11	338	111	+5	+0	+0	+7	+9	2.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	CIN	76%	397	346	80	15	1	18	45	100	3	1	0	230	322	433	755	203	266	25	11	334	107	+3	+0	-0	+7	+9	1.9
2037	31	MLB CTX	CIN	76%	381	334	76	14	1	17	42	97	2	0	0	225	317	422	739	197	262	25	11	327	103	+1	+0	-1	+7	+8	1.6
2038	32	MLB CTX	CIN	75%	369	323	72	13	1	16	41	96	2	0	0	220	311	408	719	188	258	26	11	319	98	-1	+0	-1	+7	+8	1.2
2039	33	MLB CTX	CIN	75%	353	310	67	12	1	14	38	94	2	0	0	213	303	391	694	178	252	27	11	309	91	-4	+0	-2	+6	+8	0.8
2040	34	MLB CTX	CIN	71%	292	258	52	9	0	11	31	80	1	0	0	204	293	371	664	167	245	27	11	297	84	-6	+0	-3	+5	+6	0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4986	4355	999	185	12	223	560	1248	33	34	8	229	322	431	753	202	267	25	11	332	105	+39	+4	-1	+89	+108	24.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	568	130	24	2	29	73	163	4	4	1	229	321	431	752	202	266	25	11	332	105	+5	+0	-0	+12	+14	3.2
Career	—	MLE		—	8197	7124	1600	312	26	317	938	2092	63	66	16	225	320	409	729	185	269	26	11	323	105	+46	+5	-2	+123	+149	32.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	565	127	25	2	25	74	166	5	5	1	225	320	409	729	184	270	26	11	323	105	+4	+0	-0	+12	+14	3.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Matt Wieterslast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,387 PA	6.6	4,387	146	9	250	313	411	+78	+81	30.0	28.4
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+12.2	4.5	pk7: 27
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	7.6	5,020	206	35	226	316	417	+90	+12	27.0	22.7
/162	664	27	5	+11.9	+1.6	3.6	pk7: 18
#2Evan Gattislast yr '18 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,662 PA	4.0	2,662	139	3	248	300	476	+30	+20	17.0	17.0
/162	664	35	1	+7.6	+4.9	4.2	pk7: 17
#3Paul DeJonglast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,500 PA	5.3	3,500	146	29	229	294	416	+36	+35	16.1	16.0
/162	664	28	6	+6.8	+6.6	3.1	pk7: 16
#4John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#5Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#6Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	4.3	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alfredo Duno (OGILVIE)	21	38→47	51→64	45→40	63	211/307/375	165	257	11	3	26%	12%	95	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Derek Norris 2010 · A	21	45→55	52→55	45→50	49	228/310/392	164	299	20	5	30%	10%	99	+1.3	209/309/374	165	282	20	9	31%	12%	95	+1.0	257/333/410	152	314	16	5	22%	9%	112	+1.6
●Andy Pages 2023 · AA	22	39→49	56→60	45→50	45	211/297/402	191	273	24	6	31%	9%	97	+1.1	243/312/420	177	306	20	9	26%	7%	106	+1.8	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2023 · MLB	23	46→48	53→55	45	50	238/315/406	168	271	22	7	21%	8%	104	+1.6	238/301/417	179	290	25	5	26%	7%	101	+1.4	230/285/405	175	287	26	2	29%	6%	94	+0.6
●Iván Herrera 2022 · AA	22	43→53	48→50	40→50	48	219/299/351	132	281	17	4	28%	9%	86	+0.3	245/334/373	128	318	13	10	25%	11%	103	+1.6	263/357/416	152	307	19	10	20%	10%	123	+2.6
●Mike Zunino 2013 · AA	22	49→48	51→65	49→30	46	252/301/414	162	289	19	9	20%	6%	100	+1.3	208/267/379	171	271	22	3	31%	5%	80	-0.1	229/305/466	236	295	33	0	33%	8%	115	+1.9
✕Francisco Alvarez 2023 · AAA	21	46→47	59→60	43→40	48	242/325/451	209	307	28	4	30%	9%	118	+2.7	235/309/436	201	288	27	4	28%	9%	109	+2.0	231/307/434	204	276	28	2	27%	9%	108	+1.3
●Gary Sánchez 2014 · AA	21	45→53	48→65	47→45	41	228/279/370	142	291	16	6	28%	6%	82	+0.0	248/299/402	154	302	19	6	24%	6%	97	+1.1	245/318/474	229	271	32	4	23%	8%	121	+2.3
✕Travis Denker 2007 · A	21	45→51	49→50	37→45	54	228/313/371	143	268	17	3	22%	10%	95	+1.0	231/301/358	127	283	12	5	21%	9%	87	+0.4	228/292/363	135	273	14	6	21%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Andy Marte 2006 · MLB	22	45→49	53→55	37→40	52	233/305/408	175	268	20	3	22%	10%	101	+1.4	228/278/386	158	268	18	3	22%	6%	85	+0.2	240/289/401	161	270	19	2	19%	6%	92	+0.4
●Devin Mesoraco 2011 · AAA	23	45→50	53→60	42→40	43	232/289/406	174	284	20	3	26%	6%	95	+0.9	233/287/389	156	272	17	3	21%	6%	89	+0.5	235/319/433	198	264	26	1	22%	9%	112	+1.1
✕Michael McKenry 2008 · A	23	46→47	54→55	41→40	49	238/309/421	183	282	21	7	24%	9%	105	+1.7	223/292/377	154	278	17	4	25%	8%	88	+0.5	248/321/426	177	294	23	2	23%	9%	111	+0.8
●Sean Rodríguez 2007 · AA	22	47→51	52→60	48→50	46	240/313/415	174	307	20	12	28%	8%	105	+1.7	236/309/417	181	299	21	10	28%	7%	105	+1.7	244/318/452	208	301	26	12	27%	7%	113	+1.7
●Jordan Diaz 2022 · A	21	49→59	49→55	42→30	44	249/294/398	149	296	16	5	22%	6%	93	+0.8	268/308/425	157	313	19	2	20%	5%	105	+1.7	274/316/435	161	317	20	0	20%	5%	108	+1.5
✕Agustín Ramírez 2024 · AA	22	44→48	48→55	48→55	47	226/286/366	140	275	16	10	24%	8%	84	+0.1	237/299/402	165	282	19	17	22%	7%	97	+1.1	236/301/405	169	279	19	20	22%	7%	97	+1.1
●Chris Iannetta 2006 · AA	23	45→55	50→60	44→45	49	230/305/389	159	291	17	4	26%	9%	96	+1.0	255/344/421	166	310	17	3	22%	10%	118	+2.6	262/364/443	181	313	19	0	21%	11%	129	+2.2
●Brandon Drury 2015 · AA	22	48→56	48→60	41→40	42	242/285/391	149	288	15	3	22%	5%	88	+0.5	259/301/396	137	308	13	3	20%	5%	95	+1.0	255/306/468	213	301	27	1	24%	6%	116	+1.9
●Spencer Torkelson 2022 · AAA	22	43→45	57→60	45→40	51	229/318/434	206	277	25	6	27%	10%	112	+2.2	220/302/392	172	276	20	3	27%	10%	96	+1.0	227/317/425	198	291	25	1	30%	10%	110	+2.2
●Gleyber Torres 2019 · MLB	22	51→55	53→60	46→50	47	259/324/431	172	322	20	10	26%	8%	113	+2.3	262/329/447	185	304	24	9	22%	9%	118	+2.7	259/345/399	140	294	17	6	17%	11%	114	+2.6
●Josmil Pinto 2010 · A	21	44→54	48→50	47→40	44	225/277/373	147	267	16	3	22%	6%	82	-0.0	217/263/349	132	268	14	2	24%	5%	71	-0.8	257/325/415	158	308	17	0	21%	8%	106	+1.5
●Alejandro Kirk 2022 · MLB	23	50→57	51→50	47→40	55	252/328/416	163	272	18	4	15%	9%	111	+2.1	262/340/389	127	281	14	2	12%	10%	109	+2.0	260/341/374	114	279	12	0	11%	10%	106	+1.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps