Alfredo Duno

C Dayton Dragons
Age 21 R/R 6'2" / 210 lbs A+ HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034
OGV OFP55OGV rank#12ETA2028MLB%11%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202418ACIN139.267/.375/.4223274—.207/.294/.314
202519A/INTL2 orgs554.279/.426/.494187112—.237/.356/.408
202620AA/A+/INTL2 orgs476.271/.389/.485205100—.232/.322/.411
2027PROJ11% MLB21MLBCIN22.215/.312/.39010950.1
2028PROJ59% MLB22MLBCIN263.224/.320/.4171131031.2
2029PROJ76% MLB23MLBCIN338.231/.326/.4371541101.8
Next 3 projected WAR 3.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034
2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$6M2032Arb-2$10M2033Arb-3$15M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
wOBA89
K%88
wRC+85
Chase%83
BB%69
ISO60
Career WAR5.7 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 40, comp-based) · star 12% · didn't stick 44%
CompsDerek Norris (age 21) · Andy Pages (age 22) · Logan O'Hoppe (age 23)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†95
AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .312 / .390
PA22
HR1
K%27
BB%14
BABIP258
ISO211
MLB%11%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-1BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +3.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+4POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.90+0.9WAR
0.01.42.80.11.21.82.12.32.32.327282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$62M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.2$9M+$8M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.8$12M+$12M
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+2.1$13M+$13M
2031Arb-1$6M+2.3$14M+$10M
2032Arb-2$10M+2.3$13M+$6M
2033Arb-3$15M+2.3$12M+$4M
Totals $34M $73M +$52M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202317 ROKDSL Reds — 195152 46916 38414 60 303454493947 191377 2119 422 72 — — — — — —
202418 ADaytona Tortugas — 139116 31713 18402 20 267375422797 155368 2913 352 74 — — — — — —
202519 ADaytona Tortugas — 495390 11232218 95916 66 287434518952 231330 1819 418 114 — — — — — —
202519 INTLPeoria Javelinas — 5947 10210 11160 10 213362298660 85312 2719 308 95 — — — — — —
202620 AAChattanooga Lookouts — 138121 39913 17230 30 322406488893 165379 1712 397 112 — — — — — —
202620 A+Dayton Dragons — 295242 6313016 49793 20 260391512904 252318 2717 397 97 — — — — — —
202620 INTLLeones del Caracas — 4335 6101 781 00 171326286611 114192 1916 293 85 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202317 ROK MLEDSL Reds — 195164 31613 26514 60 189314293607 104240 2613 274 72 — — — — — —
202418 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 139121 25512 13552 20 207294314608 107334 409 277 74 — — — — — —
202519 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 495414 9825214 711236 66 237356408765 171292 2514 337 114 — — — — — —
202620 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 138126 36813 12280 30 286348437784 151346 209 333 112 — — — — — —
202620 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 295256 5310013 351003 20 207310398708 191278 3412 311 97 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Reds — 195164 31613 26514 60 189314293607 104252 2613 274 72 — — — — — —
202317 ROK RAWDSL Reds — 195152 46916 38414 60 303454493947 191377 2119 422 72 — — — — — —
202418 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 139121 25512 13552 20 207294314608 107343 409 277 74 — — — — — —
202418 A RAWDaytona Tortugas — 139116 31713 18402 20 267375422797 155368 2913 352 74 — — — — — —
202519 A MLE2 teams — 554464 11028216 791376 76 237355409765 172297 2514 337 114 — — — — — —
202519 A RAW2 teams — 554437 12234318 1061076 76 279426494921 215328 1919 406 114 — — — — — —
202620 A+ MLE3 teams — 476419 9820117 521414 50 234324408732 174309 3011 318 101 — — — — — —
202620 A+ RAW3 teams — 476398 10823120 731104 50 271389485874 214327 2315 388 101 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Reds — 195163 31613 26514 60 190314294609 104240 2613 274 72 — — — — — —
202418 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 139123 25512 13552 20 203294309603 106334 409 277 74 — — — — — —
202519 A MLE2 teams — 554464 11028216 791376 76 237355409765 172292 2514 337 114 — — — — — —
202620 A+ MLE3 teams — 476417 9820117 521414 50 235324410734 175300 3011 318 101 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 139123 25512 13552 20 203294309603 106334 409 277 74 — — — — — —
202519 A MLE2 teams — 554464 11028216 791376 76 237355409765 172292 2514 337 114 — — — — — —
202620 A+ MLE3 teams — 476417 9820117 521414 50 235324410734 175300 3011 318 101 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLECIN 11% 543472 10121218 621394 61 212310379688 166257 2611 309 95 -3 +1 -0 +10 +12 0.9
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202721 MLB CTXCIN 11% 2219 4101 360 00 215312390702 175258 2714 314 95 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLECIN 59% 445388 8517117 511113 51 221317404721 183260 2511 321 103 +2 +1 +0 +8 +10 2.1
202923 MLB MLECIN 76% 445388 8817119 511083 51 227323423745 196263 2411 330 110 +5 +1 +1 +8 +10 2.4
203024 MLB MLECIN 80% 445388 8817119 511073 51 231326434760 203266 2411 336 114 +7 +1 +1 +8 +10 2.7
203125 MLB MLECIN 81% 445387 9017120 511064 51 234328440768 206267 2411 339 116 +8 +1 +1 +8 +10 2.8
203226 MLB MLECIN 82% 445388 9017120 501064 51 235328442770 207269 2411 340 116 +9 +1 +1 +8 +10 2.9
203327 MLB MLECIN 80% 445389 9017120 501073 51 234327439766 205268 2411 338 115 +8 +1 +1 +8 +10 2.8
203428 MLB MLECIN 80% 445389 9017120 501083 31 232325434759 202267 2411 336 113 +7 +0 +1 +8 +10 2.6
203529 MLB MLECIN 77% 445389 8917119 501093 21 230322428750 198265 2411 332 111 +6 +0 +0 +8 +10 2.4
203630 MLB MLECIN 76% 445389 8817119 501103 10 226319419738 193263 2511 327 108 +4 +0 -1 +8 +10 2.2
203731 MLB MLECIN 76% 426373 8316117 471073 00 222314409723 187260 2511 321 103 +2 +0 -1 +8 +9 1.8
203832 MLB MLECIN 75% 407357 7714116 451042 00 216307396703 179255 2611 313 98 -1 +0 -2 +7 +9 1.3
203933 MLB MLECIN 75% 383337 7113114 411002 00 210300379679 170250 2611 304 92 -4 +0 -3 +7 +8 0.9
204034 MLB MLECIN 71% 312275 5510011 33841 00 201290360650 159242 2711 292 84 -6 +0 -4 +6 +7 0.2
202822 MLB CTXCIN 59% 263229 5210111 30662 31 224320417737 193261 2511 327 103 +1 +0 +0 +5 +6 1.2
202923 MLB CTXCIN 76% 338293 6813115 39823 41 231326437763 207264 2412 337 110 +4 +0 +0 +6 +7 1.8
203024 MLB CTXCIN 80% 354307 7314117 41853 41 235330450779 214267 2412 343 114 +6 +0 +1 +6 +8 2.1
203125 MLB CTXCIN 81% 360313 7414117 41863 41 238331456787 218269 2411 346 116 +7 +0 +1 +6 +8 2.3
203226 MLB CTXCIN 82% 363316 7614118 41863 41 239332458789 218270 2411 347 116 +7 +0 +1 +6 +8 2.3
203327 MLB CTXCIN 80% 357311 7414117 40863 41 238331455785 217269 2411 345 115 +6 +0 +1 +6 +8 2.3
203428 MLB CTXCIN 80% 354308 7313117 40863 31 236329450778 213268 2411 343 113 +6 +0 +1 +6 +8 2.1
203529 MLB CTXCIN 77% 345301 7013116 39842 21 233326443768 209267 2411 339 111 +4 +0 +0 +6 +7 1.8
203630 MLB CTXCIN 76% 340297 6913115 38842 00 230322434756 204264 2511 334 108 +3 +0 -1 +6 +7 1.6
203731 MLB CTXCIN 76% 322281 6412114 36812 00 226317423740 198261 2511 328 103 +1 +0 -1 +6 +7 1.3
203832 MLB CTXCIN 75% 307268 6011113 34792 00 220311409720 189257 2611 320 98 -1 +0 -2 +5 +7 1.0
203933 MLB CTXCIN 75% 288254 539012 31751 00 213303392695 179251 2611 310 92 -3 +0 -2 +5 +6 0.6
204034 MLB CTXCIN 71% 221195 39708 23591 00 204293372665 168244 2710 298 84 -4 +0 -3 +4 +5 0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 42123673 84515711190 473103930 288 230323434757 204266 2511 334 105 +37 +2 -3 +75 +91 20.7
/ 162G— A+C — 650567 13024229 731605 41 229323432755 203264 2511 334 105 +6 +0 -0 +12 +14 3.2
Career— MLE — 71076187 138727318276 814180555 5814 224320408728 184268 2511 324 105 +46 +4 -5 +103 +124 27.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650566 12725225 741655 51 224319408727 184269 2511 324 105 +5 +0 -1 +12 +14 3.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Dayton Dragons · 295 PAwOBA .386 → .311 (−75)K% 26.8% → 34.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.78%÷1.000×1.270——34.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.93%÷1.000×0.710—×1.04211.79%
HBP% /PA1.02%—×0.790—×1.0420.84%
Singles /BIP20.86%÷1.000×0.920×0.962×1.04219.23%
Doubles /BIP7.98%÷1.000×0.810×0.962×1.0426.47%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.850×0.962×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP9.82%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0428.18%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .386 → .311; ISO .252 → .202; BABIP .318 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 138 PAwOBA .387 → .333 (−54)K% 16.7% → 20.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.67%÷1.000×1.220——20.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.32%÷1.000×0.680—×1.0508.80%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.840—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP26.53%÷1.000×0.920×0.953×1.05024.43%
Doubles /BIP9.18%÷1.000×0.910×0.953×1.0508.37%
Triples /BIP1.02%÷1.000×0.880×0.953×1.0500.90%
Home runs /BIP3.06%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0502.57%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.

Result: wOBA .387 → .333; ISO .165 → .144; BABIP .379 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADaytona Tortugas · 495 PAwOBA .410 → .337 (−73)K% 18.4% → 24.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.38%÷1.008×1.360——24.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.99%÷0.956×0.690—×1.04514.32%
HBP% /PA1.21%—×0.780—×1.0450.99%
Singles /BIP20.07%÷0.980×0.920×0.978×1.04519.25%
Doubles /BIP10.70%÷1.088×0.830×0.978×1.0458.34%
Triples /BIP0.67%÷1.000×0.910×0.978×1.0450.62%
Home runs /BIP6.02%÷1.032×0.800—×1.0454.88%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 96, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 102, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .410 → .337; ISO .231 → .184; BABIP .330 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADaytona Tortugas · 139 PAwOBA .351 → .277 (−74)K% 28.8% → 39.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.78%÷0.990×1.360——39.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.95%÷0.991×0.690—×1.0509.47%
HBP% /PA1.44%—×0.780—×1.0501.18%
Singles /BIP26.32%÷0.960×0.920×0.950×1.05025.16%
Doubles /BIP9.21%÷1.032×0.830×0.950×1.0507.39%
Triples /BIP1.32%÷0.918×0.910×0.950×1.0501.30%
Home runs /BIP3.95%÷1.078×0.800—×1.0503.08%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 92, 2B 106, 3B 84, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .351 → .277; ISO .155 → .115; BABIP .368 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Reds · 195 PAwOBA .413 → .274 (−138)K% 21.0% → 26.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.03%÷0.988×1.220——25.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.97%÷1.026×0.700—×1.02213.23%
HBP% /PA2.05%—×0.700—×1.0221.47%
Singles /BIP27.03%÷1.015×0.680×0.970×1.02217.96%
Doubles /BIP8.11%÷0.975×0.600×0.970×1.0224.95%
Triples /BIP0.90%÷0.900×0.600×0.970×1.0220.60%
Home runs /BIP5.41%÷0.917×0.470—×1.0222.83%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 103, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .413 → .274; ISO .191 → .111; BABIP .377 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .