Alfredo Duno — OGILVIE

Alfredo DunoC Dayton Dragons

Age 20 R/R 6'2" / 210 lbs A+ HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION335 act + 223 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†88

AVG/OBP/SLG.188 / .298 / .350

PA223

HR8

K%32

BB%13

BABIP247

ISO162

MLB%4%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 64

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER64

scouting grade only

EYE61

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.3	$17M	+$16M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.9	$20M	+$19M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.3	$21M	+$20M
2030	Arb-1	$7M	+3.6	$21M	+$17M
2031	Arb-2	$12M	+3.7	$20M	+$13M
2032	Arb-3	$18M	+3.8	$19M	+$10M
Totals		$40M		$119M	+$95M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	195	168	37	7	1	6	22	60	4	6	0	220	325	381	706	161	301	31	11	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	195	152	46	9	1	6	38	41	4	6	0	303	454	493	947	191	377	21	19	422	181	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	139	120	24	5	1	2	14	58	2	2	0	200	294	308	602	108	349	42	10	271	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	139	116	31	7	1	3	18	40	2	2	0	267	375	422	797	155	368	29	13	352	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	2 teams	—	554	457	105	27	2	16	86	142	6	7	6	230	359	403	761	173	293	26	16	338	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	2 teams	—	554	437	122	34	3	18	106	107	6	7	6	279	426	494	921	215	328	19	19	406	169	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	A+	CIN	—	335	294	60	11	0	15	37	115	3	2	0	204	299	395	694	190	273	34	11	306	93	-3	+0	+0	+6	+9	1.3
YTD	20	A+	CIN	—	335	276	74	15	0	19	55	85	3	2	0	268	395	529	924	261	318	25	16	405	168	+26	+0	+0	+6	+9	4.2
ROS	20	A+	CIN	4%	223	191	36	7	0	8	28	71	2	2	1	188	298	350	648	162	254	32	13	301	88	-3	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.8
ROS	20	MLB	CIN	4%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		257	30	10	297	85	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	20	A+	CIN	—	345	303	61	11	0	15	38	118	3	2	0	201	297	386	683	185	269	34	11	306	92	-3	+0	+0	+6	+10	1.4
TOT	20	A+	CIN	—	558	485	96	18	0	23	65	186	5	4	1	198	299	377	676	179	262	33	12	304	91	-6	+0	+0	+10	+16	2.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	CIN	50%	520	445	91	18	1	20	65	161	5	3	1	204	313	384	697	180	263	31	12	311	96	-2	+0	+1	+9	+15	2.3
2028	22	MLB	CIN	69%	520	446	94	18	1	22	64	154	5	3	1	211	317	404	720	193	267	30	12	325	107	+4	+0	+1	+9	+15	2.9
2029	23	MLB	CIN	77%	520	446	99	19	1	24	64	150	5	3	1	222	326	430	757	209	270	29	12	333	113	+8	+0	+1	+9	+15	3.3
2030	24	MLB	CIN	78%	520	446	99	19	1	24	64	148	5	3	1	222	326	430	757	209	271	28	12	338	117	+10	+0	+1	+9	+15	3.6
2031	25	MLB	CIN	79%	520	445	100	19	1	25	65	147	5	3	1	225	330	440	771	216	271	28	12	342	120	+12	+0	+1	+9	+15	3.7
2032	26	MLB	CIN	79%	520	444	100	19	1	25	65	147	6	3	1	225	332	441	773	216	271	28	12	343	121	+12	+0	+1	+9	+15	3.8
2033	27	MLB	CIN	78%	520	443	100	19	1	25	66	147	6	3	1	226	334	442	776	217	271	28	13	343	121	+12	+0	+1	+9	+15	3.8
2034	28	MLB	CIN	77%	520	444	100	19	1	25	66	148	5	3	1	225	332	441	773	216	270	28	13	342	120	+12	+0	-0	+9	+15	3.7
2035	29	MLB	CIN	75%	520	443	98	18	1	25	67	149	5	3	1	221	330	436	766	214	269	29	13	340	118	+11	+0	-1	+9	+15	3.5
2036	30	MLB	CIN	74%	520	443	98	18	1	25	67	150	5	3	1	221	330	436	766	214	268	29	13	337	116	+10	+0	-2	+9	+15	3.3
2037	31	MLB	CIN	73%	504	429	93	17	1	23	65	147	5	2	1	217	327	422	749	205	265	29	13	333	113	+8	+0	-2	+9	+14	2.9
2038	32	MLB	CIN	72%	489	419	89	16	1	22	62	145	5	2	1	212	321	413	734	200	261	30	13	328	109	+5	+0	-3	+9	+14	2.5
2039	33	MLB	CIN	72%	473	405	84	15	1	21	60	142	5	1	0	207	317	405	722	198	256	30	13	321	104	+2	+0	-4	+8	+13	2.1
2040	34	MLB	CIN	68%	439	376	75	13	0	19	56	135	4	1	0	199	310	386	695	186	250	31	13	312	97	-2	+0	-4	+8	+12	1.5
2041	35	MLB	CIN	63%	377	324	61	10	0	15	47	119	3	1	0	188	297	358	655	170	242	32	12	302	89	-5	+0	-5	+7	+11	0.8
2042	36	MLB	CIN	54%	313	268	49	8	0	12	39	101	3	0	0	183	294	347	641	164	235	32	12	291	81	-7	+0	-6	+6	+9	0.2
2027	21	MLB	CIN	50%	261	223	45	9	0	10	33	81	3	2	1	202	313	377	689	175	266	31	13	307	93	-2	+0	+0	+5	+7	1.1
2028	22	MLB	CIN	69%	358	307	67	13	1	16	44	106	4	2	1	218	324	423	747	205	270	30	12	321	104	+2	+0	+0	+6	+10	1.9
2029	23	MLB	CIN	77%	398	342	77	15	1	19	49	115	4	3	1	225	329	442	771	216	273	29	12	330	110	+5	+0	+0	+7	+11	2.4
2030	24	MLB	CIN	78%	406	349	79	15	1	20	50	115	4	3	1	226	330	447	777	221	274	28	12	335	114	+7	+0	+0	+7	+12	2.7
2031	25	MLB	CIN	79%	409	351	80	15	1	20	51	115	4	3	1	228	333	447	780	219	274	28	12	338	117	+8	+0	+0	+7	+12	2.8
2032	26	MLB	CIN	79%	411	352	81	15	1	21	52	116	4	3	1	230	336	457	793	227	274	28	13	340	118	+8	+0	+0	+7	+12	2.9
2033	27	MLB	CIN	78%	403	345	79	15	1	20	51	114	4	3	1	229	335	452	787	223	274	28	13	340	118	+8	+0	+0	+7	+11	2.8
2034	28	MLB	CIN	77%	400	342	78	15	1	20	51	114	4	3	1	228	335	453	788	225	273	28	13	339	117	+8	+0	-0	+7	+11	2.7
2035	29	MLB	CIN	75%	389	332	75	14	1	19	50	111	4	2	1	226	334	446	780	220	272	29	13	337	116	+7	+0	-1	+7	+11	2.5
2036	30	MLB	CIN	74%	382	326	74	14	1	19	49	110	4	2	1	227	335	451	786	224	271	29	13	334	114	+6	+0	-1	+7	+11	2.3
2037	31	MLB	CIN	73%	367	313	70	13	1	18	47	107	4	2	1	224	332	444	777	220	268	29	13	330	111	+4	+0	-2	+7	+10	2.0
2038	32	MLB	CIN	72%	354	303	65	12	0	17	45	105	3	1	0	215	322	422	744	208	264	30	13	325	107	+3	+0	-2	+6	+10	1.7
2039	33	MLB	CIN	72%	341	292	60	11	0	15	43	103	3	1	0	205	314	397	711	192	259	30	13	318	101	+0	+0	-3	+6	+10	1.4
2040	34	MLB	CIN	68%	297	254	51	9	0	13	38	91	3	1	0	201	312	390	702	189	252	31	13	309	94	-2	+0	-3	+5	+8	0.9
2041	35	MLB	CIN	63%	238	204	40	7	0	10	30	75	2	0	0	196	305	377	683	181	245	32	13	299	87	-4	+0	-3	+4	+7	0.4
2042	36	MLB	CIN	54%	170	146	27	4	0	7	21	55	1	0	0	185	292	356	648	171	238	32	12	288	78	-4	+0	-3	+3	+5	0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5594	4790	1049	196	10	264	705	1636	55	31	11	219	326	429	755	210	269	29	13	327	109	+54	+2	-15	+100	+158	30.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	557	122	23	1	31	82	190	6	4	1	219	326	431	756	212	268	29	13	327	109	+6	+0	-2	+12	+18	3.6
Career	—			—	8906	7602	1632	311	17	384	1132	2621	91	54	19	215	324	412	735	197	268	29	13	327	109	+88	+3	-23	+159	+252	49.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	555	119	23	1	28	83	191	7	4	1	214	325	411	735	196	268	29	13	327	109	+6	+0	-2	+12	+18	3.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	195	152	46	9	1	6	38	41	4	6	0	303	454	493	947	191	377	21	19	422	181	+18	+1	—	—	+6	2.5
2024	18	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	139	116	31	7	1	3	18	40	2	2	0	267	375	422	797	155	368	29	13	352	128	+4	+0	—	—	+4	0.9
2025	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	495	390	112	32	2	18	95	91	6	6	6	287	434	518	952	231	330	18	19	418	178	+44	-1	—	—	+14	5.7
2025	19	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	59	47	10	2	1	0	11	16	0	1	0	213	362	298	660	85	312	27	19	308	94	-0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jason Variteklast yr '11 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,047 PA	12	5,047	166	22	255	343	431	+61	+15	33.1	30.8
	/162	664	22	3	255	343	431	+8.0	+1.9	4.4	pk7: 28
#2Dan Ugglalast yr '15 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,509 PA	10	5,509	235	26	241	336	447	+20	-17	28.7	28.7
#2Dan Ugglalast yr '15 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,509 PA	/162	664	28	3	241	336	447	+2.4	-2.1	3.5	pk7: 29
#3Matt Wieterslast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,387 PA	11	4,387	146	9	250	313	411	+78	+81	30.0	28.4
	/162	664	22	1	250	313	411	+11.9	+12.2	4.5	pk7: 27
#4Todd Frazierlast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,909 PA	10	4,909	218	73	242	319	448	+18	+35	27.6	26.2
	/162	664	29	10	242	319	448	+2.4	+4.7	3.7	pk7: 25
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	11	5,599	255	30	217	321	422	+85	+11	32.5	25.9
	/162	664	30	4	217	321	422	+10.1	+1.4	3.8	pk7: 19
#5Evan Gattislast yr '18 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,662 PA	6	2,662	139	3	248	300	476	+30	+20	17.0	17.0
	/162	664	35	1	248	300	476	+7.6	+4.9	4.2	pk7: 17
#6John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#6John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alfredo Duno (OGILVIE)	20	32→45	50→64	44→40	61	198/299/377	179	262	23	4	33%	12%	91	+2.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	43→53	46→60	46→50	46	214/297/344	130	275	14	9	26%	8%	82	+0.5	219/304/418	199	291	25	6	32%	9%	104	+2.0	270/324/464	194	313	25	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
●Miguel Sanó 2013 · A	20	39→49	53→70	46→45	44	207/282/382	175	291	21	5	35%	9%	85	+0.7	227/308/454	227	315	29	7	35%	9%	115	+2.7	242/333/468	226	340	30	2	35%	11%	124	+3.1
●Derek Norris 2010 · A	21	43→53	51→55	45→50	48	223/303/383	161	292	19	5	30%	10%	94	+1.3	207/305/377	170	279	21	9	31%	11%	94	+1.3	261/339/417	156	319	16	5	22%	10%	113	+1.9
●Mark Vientos 2019 · A	19	42→49	46→60	43→30	45	215/275/340	125	273	14	3	26%	7%	70	-0.3	206/250/349	143	284	18	2	33%	5%	62	-0.9	245/305/447	202	325	28	0	32%	7%	109	+2.0
✕Roan Salas 2010 · A	20	46	50→65	46→40	45	236/285/393	157	263	17	5	18%	6%	88	+0.9	244/297/371	127	282	12	5	17%	6%	87	+0.8	268/322/383	115	301	9	3	14%	6%	98	+0.7
✕Heriberto Hernández 2019 · A	19	43→49	54→60	46→50	55	223/325/414	191	274	20	7	26%	12%	111	+2.5	223/302/390	167	328	17	6	35%	9%	95	+1.4	221/302/428	208	278	28	9	31%	9%	103	+1.2
●Iván Herrera 2022 · AA	22	40→50	49→50	40→50	46	210/286/345	135	271	18	4	29%	8%	77	+0.1	236/321/369	133	306	14	10	26%	10%	98	+1.6	276/369/436	160	338	18	13	22%	11%	130	+2.7
●Junior Caminero 2022 · A	19	43→53	50→70	49→45	44	225/281/372	147	272	18	5	25%	7%	82	+0.5	253/302/420	167	306	22	7	25%	6%	102	+1.9	260/323/512	251	270	38	5	20%	8%	130	+3.2
●Gary Sánchez 2014 · AA	21	43→50	48→65	47→45	40	222/272/361	139	282	16	6	27%	5%	74	-0.1	241/291/400	159	294	20	6	25%	6%	92	+1.2	240/315/464	224	265	32	4	23%	9%	117	+2.4
✕Travis Denker 2007 · A	21	44→51	48→50	37→45	54	224/307/363	140	262	17	3	22%	10%	90	+1.0	226/294/350	124	277	12	5	22%	8%	81	+0.4	227/302/380	153	255	18	0	19%	8%	92	+0.6
✕Danny Jansen 2015 · A	20	44→54	42→65	46→45	51	214/287/314	101	243	9	5	16%	8%	69	-0.4	202/269/297	95	244	9	6	20%	7%	56	-1.3	233/314/475	242	239	34	1	20%	9%	119	+1.4
★Xander Bogaerts 2012 · A	19	42→52	49→60	41→55	41	218/270/362	144	284	17	4	29%	6%	74	-0.1	241/295/389	148	309	16	5	26%	6%	91	+1.1	287/361/450	163	330	18	10	18%	9%	131	+4.1
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A	19	43→53	47→50	45→40	47	217/283/352	135	277	15	5	27%	8%	76	+0.1	243/301/378	135	296	16	4	23%	7%	91	+1.1	266/326/405	139	311	16	3	19%	8%	106	+1.6
●Isaac Paredes 2019 · AA	20	44→49	44→60	48→40	46	217/278/338	121	256	11	3	20%	6%	71	-0.3	230/296/335	105	269	10	4	18%	7%	78	+0.2	242/348/439	196	257	26	1	17%	11%	124	+3.1
●Juan Apodaca 2006 · A	20	42→52	48→45	46→40	40	218/258/353	135	265	17	4	25%	5%	66	-0.6	222/276/323	101	282	11	5	24%	6%	66	-0.6	284/349/396	112	346	10	3	20%	8%	112	+1.4
●Tyler Flowers 2007 · A	21	44→54	44→55	48→40	43	216/281/335	119	291	12	4	29%	7%	72	-0.2	242/315/392	150	317	15	4	26%	9%	100	+1.7	248/330/411	163	328	16	4	27%	10%	109	+1.9
●Brandon Drury 2014 · A	21	44→54	46→65	43→40	39	224/261/361	137	275	13	3	24%	4%	69	-0.4	249/289/385	136	299	13	3	21%	5%	87	+0.8	259/310/485	225	304	29	1	25%	6%	121	+2.5
●Josmil Pinto 2010 · A	21	45→55	49→55	47→40	44	228/278/377	149	272	16	3	23%	6%	81	+0.4	214/260/348	134	265	14	2	24%	5%	66	-0.6	251/317/419	167	299	19	0	22%	8%	105	+1.7
✕Carter Kieboom 2018 · A	20	45→50	49→50	43→45	42	229/288/376	147	300	16	5	29%	6%	85	+0.7	233/302/365	132	310	15	6	28%	8%	88	+0.9	229/307/354	125	306	14	5	28%	9%	84	+0.4
●Mike Moustakas 2009 · A	20	43→53	49→65	46→45	43	221/268/364	143	257	17	6	22%	5%	73	-0.1	231/266/387	156	267	19	5	21%	4%	79	+0.3	264/326/513	248	264	35	2	16%	7%	131	+3.9