Spencer Torkelson

Spencer Torkelson1B Detroit Tigers

Age 26 R/R 6'1" / 220 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 3.442 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION371 act + 278 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 129118vR 92

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .315 / .417

PA278

HR12

K%29

BB%11

BABIP275

ISO198

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

807.9%

xwOBA

570.317

POWER55

Barrel%

7511.9

Avg EV

6089.8

Bat Spd

6773.2

EYE60

Chase%

9019.2%

SPEED45

Sprint

3026.5

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1128 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

303

825

—

wRC+

135

◀◀L

wOBA

361

314

◀L

ISO

246

171

◀◀L

BABIP

279

286

—

20.8%

29.0%

◀◀L

BB%

11.6%

9.7%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.442 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.3	$1M	-$0.4M
2027	Arb-2	$6M	+1.6	$12M	+$7M
2028	Arb-3	$8M	+1.4	$10M	+$3M
Totals		$16M		$23M	+$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	AA	4 teams	—	558	479	107	27	2	28	57	153	11	5	3	223	320	463	783	240	256	27	10	335	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA	4 teams	—	558	451	124	31	2	30	85	119	11	5	3	275	402	552	954	277	300	21	15	409	171	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	MLB	2 teams	—	559	498	102	22	1	13	53	148	6	1	2	205	289	331	620	127	263	26	9	277	70	-19	-1	-5	-10	+16	-1.9
2022	22	MLB	2 teams	—	559	491	103	22	1	13	60	140	6	1	2	210	303	338	641	128	265	25	11	293	82	-11	-1	-5	-10	+16	-1.1
2023	23	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	684	606	148	36	1	34	67	171	6	3	0	244	325	475	801	231	281	25	10	345	122	+17	+1	-11	-12	+19	1.4
2023	23	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	684	606	141	34	1	31	67	171	6	3	0	233	315	446	761	213	269	25	10	335	114	+11	+1	-11	-12	+19	0.8
2024	24	MLB	2 teams	—	656	584	128	32	1	28	60	203	6	1	0	219	298	421	720	202	279	31	9	312	97	-2	+0	-4	-12	+19	0.1
2024	24	MLB	2 teams	—	656	568	129	34	1	21	75	190	6	1	0	227	323	401	724	174	298	29	11	323	105	+4	+0	-4	-12	+19	0.7
2025	25	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	649	563	142	29	1	34	72	169	9	2	1	252	346	488	835	236	296	26	11	354	129	+21	+0	-7	-12	+18	2.1
2025	25	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	649	563	135	27	1	31	72	169	9	2	1	240	335	456	792	217	283	26	11	349	125	+18	+0	-7	-12	+18	1.8
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	MLB	DET	—	371	323	67	18	0	16	41	122	5	0	1	207	306	412	718	204	273	33	11	316	100	+0	-0	-3	-7	+11	0.1
YTD	26	MLB	DET	—	371	322	67	18	0	16	41	122	5	0	1	208	306	413	719	205	274	33	11	320	103	+1	-0	-3	-7	+11	0.2
ROS	26	MLB	DET	100%	278	242	53	12	0	12	30	82	4	1	1	219	315	417	733	198	273	29	11	328	109	+3	-0	+1	-5	+8	0.7
ROS	26	MLB	DET	100%	278	242	52	12	0	12	30	82	4	1	1	215	312	413	725	198	267	29	11	311	97	-1	-0	+1	-5	+8	0.3
FULL	26	MLB	DET	—	649	565	119	30	0	28	71	204	9	1	2	211	309	412	721	202	271	31	11	314	99	-1	-1	-2	-12	+18	0.4
TOT	26	MLB	DET	—	649	565	120	30	0	28	71	204	9	1	2	212	310	414	724	202	274	31	11	321	104	+3	-1	-2	-12	+18	0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	DET	100%	660	574	125	28	1	29	72	195	9	1	1	218	315	422	736	204	273	30	11	328	109	+7	-0	+3	-12	+19	1.7
2028	28	MLB	DET	100%	651	566	124	28	1	29	72	193	8	1	1	219	316	426	742	207	272	30	11	326	108	+6	-0	+2	-12	+18	1.5
2029	29	MLB	DET	100%	638	555	120	27	1	28	70	191	8	1	1	216	313	420	733	204	270	30	11	324	106	+5	-0	+1	-11	+18	1.3
2030	30	MLB	DET	100%	625	543	116	26	0	27	69	188	8	1	1	214	311	411	722	197	268	30	11	321	104	+3	-0	+1	-11	+18	1.0
2027	27	MLB	DET	100%	660	574	124	28	1	28	72	195	9	1	1	216	313	415	728	199	267	30	11	311	96	-3	-0	+3	-12	+19	0.7
2028	28	MLB	DET	100%	651	566	120	27	1	27	72	193	8	1	1	212	310	406	716	194	266	30	11	310	96	-3	-0	+2	-12	+18	0.6
2029	29	MLB	DET	100%	638	555	118	26	1	27	70	191	8	1	1	213	310	409	719	196	264	30	11	308	94	-4	-0	+1	-11	+18	0.4
2030	30	MLB	DET	100%	625	543	113	25	0	26	69	188	8	1	1	208	306	398	704	190	262	30	11	305	92	-6	-0	+1	-11	+18	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4970	4351	951	216	7	200	522	1393	61	10	7	219	311	409	720	191	270	28	11	314	99	-7	-1	-19	-96	+141	1.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	569	124	28	1	26	68	182	8	1	1	218	310	408	717	190	269	28	10	314	99	-1	-0	-2	-13	+18	0.2
Career	—			—	5958	5210	1165	267	9	262	622	1693	75	17	11	224	315	429	744	206	274	28	10	326	107	+49	-1	-19	-106	+169	9.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	568	127	29	1	29	68	185	8	2	1	224	315	431	747	208	273	28	10	326	107	+5	+0	-2	-12	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	177	147	35	8	1	11	23	36	4	1	0	238	356	531	887	293	233	20	13	380	149	+10	+0	—	—	+5	1.5
2021	21	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	212	175	46	10	0	14	30	50	3	1	1	263	380	560	940	297	278	24	14	401	165	+16	-0	—	—	+6	2.2
2021	21	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	141	109	34	11	1	5	24	28	4	3	2	312	453	569	1.021	257	362	20	17	434	190	+14	-0	—	—	+4	1.9
2021	21	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	28	20	9	2	0	0	8	5	0	0	0	450	607	550	1.157	100	600	18	29	517	254	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2022	22	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	404	360	73	16	1	8	37	99	5	0	1	203	286	319	606	117	255	25	9	277	70	-14	-0	-5	-10	+11	-1.8
2022	22	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	155	131	30	6	0	5	23	41	1	1	1	229	348	389	738	160	294	26	15	336	115	+3	-0	—	—	+4	0.7
2023	23	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	684	606	141	34	1	31	67	171	6	3	0	233	315	446	761	213	269	25	10	335	114	+11	+1	-11	-12	+19	0.8
2024	24	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	381	342	75	21	1	10	33	105	4	0	0	219	295	374	669	155	285	28	9	300	88	-5	+0	-4	-12	+11	-1.0
2024	24	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	275	226	54	13	0	11	42	85	2	1	0	239	363	442	805	204	319	31	15	355	129	+9	+0	—	—	+8	1.8
2025	25	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	649	563	135	27	1	31	72	169	9	2	1	240	335	456	792	217	283	26	11	349	125	+18	+0	-7	-12	+18	1.8
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2118	1871	424	98	4	80	209	544	24	5	2	227	312	412	724	185	273	26	10	322	104	+10	+0	-27	-46	+60	-0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Carlos Penalast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,856 PA	13	5,856	285	29	231	346	462	-98	-110	14.2	15.3
	/162	664	32	3	231	346	462	-11.2	-12.5	1.6	pk7: 16
#2Chris Davislast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,630 PA	13	5,630	295	19	233	315	459	-96	-102	6.3	9.8
	/162	664	35	2	233	315	459	-11.3	-12.0	0.7	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	10	5,712	238	12	223	311	420	-102	-88	9.4	9.7
	/162	664	28	1	223	311	420	-11.9	-10.2	1.1	pk7: 10
#3Mark Trumbolast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 4,372 PA	8	4,372	218	23	250	303	462	-58	-63	6.2	6.6
	/162	664	33	3	250	303	462	-8.9	-9.6	0.9	pk7: 7
#4Brandon Mosslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,459 PA	8	3,459	160	11	238	315	455	-53	-41	5.9	5.9
	/162	664	31	2	238	315	455	-10.2	-7.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#5Justin Smoaklast yr '20 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,750 PA	11	4,750	196	3	229	322	419	-85	-77	1.9	3.8
	/162	664	27	0	229	322	419	-11.9	-10.7	0.3	pk7: 6
#6Chris Carterlast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,807 PA	7	2,807	158	12	219	314	462	-50	-50	3.3	3.3
	/162	664	37	3	219	314	462	-11.7	-11.9	0.8	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Spencer Torkelson (OGILVIE)	26	45	55	45	60	212/310/414	202	274	28	1	31%	11%	104	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Chris Carter 2013 · MLB	26	43→53	58→65	48→45	48	232/309/438	206	293	27	5	30%	10%	111	+2.5	221/310/441	220	290	30	5	33%	11%	111	+2.5	213/311/464	252	256	36	3	32%	11%	114	+2.5
✕David Villar 2023 · MLB	26	43	61→60	43→40	45	231/318/454	223	301	30	4	33%	9%	119	+3.1	219/299/382	163	289	21	5	30%	9%	92	+1.2	208/289/344	136	275	17	4	29%	9%	75	+0.0
✕Evan White 2022 · MLB	26	42→52	56→60	43→40	41	226/283/412	186	296	26	5	33%	7%	93	+1.3	215/282/375	160	274	19	7	28%	8%	82	+0.5	170/243/361	191	191	23	0	27%	8%	59	-0.2
✕Ryan Mountcastle 2023 · MLB	26	47→53	55→60	44→40	45	246/303/426	180	296	24	5	26%	7%	105	+2.1	250/302/405	155	309	18	5	24%	7%	98	+1.6	251/301/395	144	312	16	4	24%	6%	92	+1.0
✕Blaine Crim 2023 · AAA	26	47→49	59→55	47→45	43	253/303/450	197	286	29	4	23%	5%	111	+2.5	233/299/396	163	279	20	4	24%	7%	95	+1.4	219/291/374	155	265	18	4	24%	8%	84	+0.6
✕Ike Davis 2014 · MLB	27	42→52	56→60	45→40	56	225/321/417	192	267	24	4	25%	12%	110	+2.4	227/317/372	145	277	16	3	23%	12%	96	+1.5	222/310/351	130	271	13	0	22%	11%	85	+0.4
●Rhys Hoskins 2018 · MLB	25	41→51	59→65	46→45	51	227/309/436	209	260	27	6	25%	10%	110	+2.4	231/344/458	227	265	27	5	24%	13%	130	+3.8	230/357/461	231	264	27	3	24%	15%	131	+3.3
✕Tommy Joseph 2018 · MLB	27	45→47	57→60	43→30	44	243/291/438	195	272	26	3	22%	6%	103	+1.9	238/293/413	175	291	23	4	26%	6%	97	+1.5	235/292/426	191	275	26	0	25%	6%	99	+1.1
●Wes Helms 2002 · MLB	26	44→50	56→55	48→30	50	235/304/432	197	272	23	6	23%	9%	107	+2.2	247/311/417	170	299	20	3	24%	7%	105	+2.1	288/355/449	162	341	14	0	19%	8%	128	+1.6
✕Kennys Vargas 2017 · MLB	26	45→53	54→55	45→30	50	234/311/406	172	292	23	2	28%	10%	103	+1.9	225/293/403	178	289	24	2	30%	8%	95	+1.4	219/283/399	180	279	25	0	31%	7%	87	+0.7
●Rowdy Tellez 2021 · MLB	26	47→50	58→65	41→45	46	251/314/456	205	292	27	4	24%	7%	118	+3.0	240/313/456	216	263	29	3	21%	9%	117	+2.9	229/307/441	212	247	30	1	21%	9%	103	+1.5
✕Paul DeJong 2020 · MLB	26	45→50	59→60	43→45	47	243/315/452	209	281	27	6	24%	8%	117	+2.9	219/298/399	180	263	24	7	26%	9%	96	+1.5	227/278/404	177	297	25	5	32%	5%	87	+0.6
●Renato Núñez 2020 · MLB	26	44→51	56→60	43→30	45	236/298/421	184	280	25	3	26%	7%	102	+1.8	242/310/452	210	289	29	3	27%	7%	115	+2.8	236/309/467	231	279	34	1	28%	7%	117	+1.6
✕Bobby Dalbec 2021 · MLB	26	37→42	59→60	42→50	42	206/288/408	202	286	28	5	38%	8%	95	+1.4	224/293/434	210	305	29	7	35%	7%	103	+1.9	216/289/425	209	296	30	9	36%	8%	96	+1.1
●Mark Trumbo 2012 · MLB	26	45→52	57→65	44→45	41	245/285/443	199	281	26	7	24%	5%	102	+1.8	250/301/466	216	294	30	6	26%	7%	115	+2.7	245/301/449	204	284	29	1	25%	7%	108	+2.3
✕Matt LaPorta 2010 · MLB	25	47→49	56→55	42→30	47	247/314/445	198	273	24	4	20%	7%	115	+2.7	237/303/396	159	275	19	3	21%	8%	97	+1.5	226/295/372	145	267	17	0	22%	8%	85	+0.5
✕Greg Bird 2019 · MLB	26	39→49	54→55	46→30	52	210/298/392	183	243	22	3	24%	10%	95	+1.4	210/292/376	166	265	20	4	28%	10%	87	+0.8	177/249/320	143	226	18	1	30%	8%	53	-0.9
★Jorge Soler 2018 · MLB	26	41→51	56→70	46→45	50	224/307/409	185	277	25	3	29%	10%	102	+1.9	255/341/505	250	308	33	5	28%	10%	141	+4.5	245/337/506	261	279	36	1	26%	11%	137	+3.4
✕Casper Wells 2012 · MLB	27	44→46	58→60	43→50	43	232/300/443	211	293	26	8	30%	7%	108	+2.3	219/290/374	155	283	16	7	27%	8%	85	+0.7	208/288/359	151	263	15	5	26%	9%	79	+0.1
✕AJ Reed 2019 · MLB	26	38→48	56→60	46→30	43	212/277/400	188	273	25	2	32%	8%	87	+0.8	199/261/351	152	290	19	5	37%	7%	68	-0.5	147/216/267	120	228	15	0	41%	7%	25	-1.8