Spencer Torkelson

1B Detroit Tigers
Age 27 R/R 6'1" / 220 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 4.442 · Ctrl thru 2028
Overview
MLB40-MANArb-2FA 2029
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202424AAADET275.239/.363/.44211180—.188/.281/.356
202424MLBDET381.219/.295/.37410093-1.1
202525MLBDET649.240/.335/.4563121231.3
202626MLBDET612.230/.332/.4352611211.5
2027PROJ27MLBDET556.212/.309/.4002221040.7
2028PROJ28MLBDET594.210/.307/.3952311020.5
2029PROJ29MLBDET571.207/.304/.3882211000.2
Last 3 seasons WAR 1.7  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2028Service4.442First FA2029
2027Arb-2$4M2028Arb-3$4M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Barrel%72
Bat Spd67
Avg EV58
xwOBA56
Speed30
Form.219/.328/.459 ▲▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .217/.311/.412
CompsDavid Villar (age 27) · Luken Baker (age 27) · Kennys Vargas (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 108104vR 93
AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .309 / .400
PA556
HR22
K%29
BB%11
BABIP264
ISO188
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +2.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+3BATRUN: -0.5 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-1RUNFLD: +1.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: -9.9 runs (Positional adjustment)-10POSREP: +12.0 runs (Replacement-level credit)+12REPTotal WAR: +1.10+1.1WAR
0.00.81.61.10.527282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$5M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 55
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT45
xAVG
100.216
POWER55
Barrel%
7211.4
Avg EV
5889.7
Bat Spd
6773.2
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED45
Sprint
3026.5
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%31%▼▼32% over 93 PA (60d) · proj 29%
BB%13%▲▲15% over 93 PA (60d) · proj 11%
ISO.240▲▲.338 over 74 AB (60d) · proj .195
HR/BB8.9%▲▲13.6% over 44 BBE (60d) · proj 7.0%
BABIP.274▲.395 over 38 BIP (60d) · proj .269
SLASH.219/.328/.459▲▲proj .217/.311/.412
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1128 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
303
825
—
wRC+
131
99
◀◀L
wOBA
361
314
◀L
ISO
246
171
◀◀L
BABIP
279
286
—
K%
20.8%
29.0%
◀◀L
BB%
11.6%
9.7%
◀◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-2
MLB Debut   2022
Service   4.442 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2028
First FA Year   2029
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-2$4M+1.1$9M+$5M
2028Arb-3$4M+0.5$2M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $4M $11M +$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202121 AAAToledo Mud Hens — 177147 358111 23364 10 238356531887 293233 2013 380 90 — — — — — —
202121 AAErie SeaWolves — 212175 4610014 30503 11 263380560940 297278 2414 401 113 — — — — — —
202121 A+West Michigan Whitecaps — 141109 341115 24284 32 3124535691.021 257362 2017 434 135 — — — — — —
202121 INTLSalt River Rafters — 2820 9200 850 00 4506075501.157 100600 1829 517 236 — — — — — —
202222 MLBDetroit Tigers — 404360 731618 37995 01 203286319606 117255 259 277 76 -11 -0 -5 -10 +9 -1.8
202222 AAAToledo Mud Hens — 155131 30605 23411 11 229348389738 160294 2615 336 65 — — — — — —
202323 MLBDetroit Tigers — 684606 14134131 671716 30 233315446761 213269 2510 335 117 +13 +1 -11 -12 +15 0.6
202424 MLBDetroit Tigers — 381342 7521110 331054 00 219295374669 155285 289 300 93 -3 +0 -4 -12 +8 -1.1
202424 AAAToledo Mud Hens — 275226 5413011 42852 10 239363442805 204319 3115 355 80 — — — — — —
202525 MLBDetroit Tigers — 649563 13527131 721699 21 240335456792 217283 2611 349 123 +17 +0 -7 -12 +14 1.3
202626 MLBDetroit Tigers — 612526 12128126 7119410 11 230332435768 205306 3212 340 121 +15 -0 -3 -11 +13 1.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 27302397 5451265106 28073834 63 227317417733 189280 2710 326 107 +22 +0 -30 -56 +59 -0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202121 AAA MLEToledo Mud Hens — 177155 30718 15434 10 194282406688 213203 248 301 90 — — — — — —
202121 AA MLEErie SeaWolves — 212182 4210011 23593 11 231327467794 236251 2811 335 113 — — — — — —
202121 A+ MLEWest Michigan Whitecaps — 141116 30915 17394 32 259372483855 224313 2812 367 135 — — — — — —
202222 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 404360 741618 37995 01 206289322611 117255 259 281 76 -11 -0 -5 -10 +9 -1.8
202222 AAA MLEToledo Mud Hens — 155137 27504 17491 11 197290321611 124265 3211 265 65 — — — — — —
202323 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 684607 14435132 661716 30 237318456774 219269 2510 340 117 +13 +1 -11 -12 +15 0.6
202424 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 381343 7621110 331054 00 222297376673 155285 289 305 93 -3 +0 -4 -12 +8 -1.1
202424 AAA MLEToledo Mud Hens — 275239 4510010 291002 10 188281356637 167255 3611 286 80 — — — — — —
202525 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 649569 13828132 661699 21 243331464795 221283 2610 349 123 +17 +0 -7 -12 +14 1.3
202626 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 612527 12429127 7119410 11 235337448785 213306 3212 347 121 +15 -0 -3 -11 +13 1.5
202121 AA MLE4 teams — 558478 10727225 5815011 53 224322446767 222261 2710 332 111 — — — — — —
202121 AA RAW4 teams — 558451 12431230 8511911 53 275402552954 277300 2115 409 111 — — — — — —
202222 MLB MLE2 teams — 559497 10021112 541486 12 201287320607 119260 2610 277 73 -18 -1 -5 -10 +12 -2.2
202222 MLB RAW2 teams — 559491 10322113 601406 12 210303338641 128265 2511 293 73 -18 -1 -5 -10 +12 -2.2
202323 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 684607 14435132 661716 30 237318456774 219274 2510 340 117 +13 +1 -11 -12 +15 0.6
202323 MLB RAWDetroit Tigers — 684606 14134131 671716 30 233315446761 213269 2510 335 117 +13 +1 -11 -12 +15 0.6
202424 MLB MLE2 teams — 656582 12332121 622056 10 211294378672 167282 319 297 87 -10 +0 -4 -12 +14 -1.1
202424 MLB RAW2 teams — 656568 12934121 751906 10 227323401724 174298 2911 323 87 -10 +0 -4 -12 +14 -1.1
202525 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 649569 13828132 661699 21 243331464795 221284 2610 349 123 +17 +0 -7 -12 +14 1.3
202525 MLB RAWDetroit Tigers — 649563 13527131 721699 21 240335456792 217283 2611 349 123 +17 +0 -7 -12 +14 1.3
202626 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 612527 12429127 7119410 11 235337448785 213313 3212 347 121 +15 -0 -3 -11 +13 1.5
202626 MLB RAWDetroit Tigers — 612526 12128126 7119410 11 230332435768 205306 3212 340 121 +15 -0 -3 -11 +13 1.5
202121 AA MLE4 teams — 558484 10727225 5815011 53 221322440762 219251 2710 332 111 — — — — — —
202222 MLB MLE2 teams — 559494 10021112 541486 12 202287322609 119258 2610 277 73 — — — — — —
202323 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 684607 14435132 661716 30 237318456774 219269 2510 340 117 — — — — — —
202424 MLB MLE2 teams — 656583 12332121 622056 10 211294377671 166272 319 297 87 — — — — — —
202525 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 649569 13828132 661699 21 243331464795 221283 2610 349 123 — — — — — —
202626 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 612526 12429127 7119410 11 236337449786 213306 3212 347 121 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202424 MLB MLE2 teams — 656583 12332121 622056 10 211294377671 166272 319 297 87 — — — — — —
202525 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 649569 13828132 661699 21 243331464795 221283 2610 349 123 — — — — — —
202626 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 612526 12429127 7119410 11 236337449786 213306 3212 347 121 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202727 MLB MLEDET 100% 612532 11526125 661769 21 217314412725 195269 2911 322 104 +3 +0 +2 -11 +13 1.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202727 MLB CTXDET 100% 556483 10323122 601608 21 212309400709 188264 2911 316 104 +3 +0 +1 -10 +12 0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202828 MLB MLEDET 100% 594517 11125124 641728 10 215311406718 192267 2911 319 102 +2 +0 +1 -11 +13 0.5
202929 MLB MLEDET 100% 571497 10624123 611678 10 212308399707 187265 2911 315 100 -0 +0 +0 -10 +12 0.2
203030 MLB MLEDET 100% 555484 10022022 591647 10 208304390693 182261 3011 310 96 -3 +0 -1 -10 +12 -0.1
202828 MLB CTXDET 100% 594517 10824123 641728 10 210307395702 184262 2911 313 102 +2 +0 +1 -11 +13 0.5
202929 MLB CTXDET 100% 571497 10423122 611678 10 207304388692 180260 2911 309 100 -0 +0 +0 -10 +12 0.2
203030 MLB CTXDET 100% 555484 9822021 591647 10 204300378678 175256 3011 304 96 -3 +0 -1 -10 +12 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 44503895 8551957172 464124157 93 220311406717 186272 2810 319 104 +20 +1 -30 -87 +96 0.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650569 12428125 681818 10 218310402713 185270 2810 319 104 +3 +0 -4 -13 +14 0.0
Career— MLE — 59945241 115826610241 621170079 188 221313413726 193274 2810 322 104 +23 +1 -28 -97 +108 0.7
/ 162G— MLE — 650568 12629126 671849 21 222314414727 192275 2810 322 104 +3 +0 -4 -13 +14 0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 275 PAwOBA .351 → .286 (−65)K% 30.9% → 36.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.91%÷1.022×1.200——36.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.91%÷1.016×0.690—×1.03310.46%
HBP% /PA0.73%—×0.940—×1.0330.71%
Singles /BIP21.28%÷1.117×0.930×0.950×1.03317.38%
Doubles /BIP9.22%÷1.049×0.830×0.950×1.0337.16%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.070×0.970×0.950×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP7.80%÷0.792×0.700—×1.0337.12%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 58, 1B 123, 2B 110, 3B 114, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .351 → .286; ISO .204 → .182; BABIP .319 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 155 PAwOBA .325 → .265 (−60)K% 26.5% → 31.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.45%÷1.008×1.200——31.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.19%÷0.964×0.690—×1.05010.67%
HBP% /PA0.65%—×0.940—×1.0500.64%
Singles /BIP21.11%÷1.015×0.930×0.977×1.05019.84%
Doubles /BIP6.67%÷1.015×0.830×0.977×1.0505.59%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970×0.977×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP5.56%÷1.026×0.700—×1.0503.98%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .325 → .265; ISO .160 → .119; BABIP .294 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAErie SeaWolves · 212 PAwOBA .398 → .335 (−63)K% 23.6% → 28.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.58%÷1.026×1.220——28.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.15%÷0.945×0.690—×1.04210.76%
HBP% /PA1.42%—×0.850—×1.0421.25%
Singles /BIP17.60%÷1.030×0.940×0.967×1.04216.19%
Doubles /BIP8.00%÷0.935×0.870×0.967×1.0427.50%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.920×0.967×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP11.20%÷1.055×0.780—×1.0428.63%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 106, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 105, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .398 → .335; ISO .297 → .242; BABIP .278 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 177 PAwOBA .375 → .301 (−74)K% 20.3% → 24.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.34%÷1.000×1.200——24.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.43%÷1.038×0.690—×1.0508.67%
HBP% /PA2.26%—×0.940—×1.0502.23%
Singles /BIP13.51%÷0.991×0.930×0.950×1.05012.65%
Doubles /BIP7.21%÷1.013×0.830×0.950×1.0505.89%
Triples /BIP0.90%÷0.981×0.920×0.950×1.0500.84%
Home runs /BIP9.91%÷1.052×0.700—×1.0506.92%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 98, 2B 103, 3B 96, K 100, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .375 → .301; ISO .293 → .221; BABIP .233 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 141 PAwOBA .436 → .367 (−69)K% 19.9% → 28.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.86%÷0.959×1.350——27.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.02%÷1.000×0.710—×1.01212.23%
HBP% /PA2.84%—×0.810—×1.0122.33%
Singles /BIP20.99%÷1.001×0.910×0.950×1.01218.34%
Doubles /BIP13.58%÷0.935×0.830×0.950×1.01211.58%
Triples /BIP1.23%÷1.009×0.820×0.950×1.0120.96%
Home runs /BIP6.17%÷0.841×0.830—×1.0126.16%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 100, 2B 87, 3B 102, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .436 → .367; ISO .257 → .238; BABIP .362 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .