Matt Mervis

1B Reno Aces
Age 29 L/R 6'2" / 225 lbs AAA HR -11% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2028
Overview
AAAArb-2FA 2029
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202325AAACHC441.282/.404/.533222106—.232/.326/.420
202325MLBCHC99.167/.242/.2893052-1.5
202426AAACHC350.235/.332/.43415461—.186/.266/.321
202426MLBCHC28.115/.143/.15400-23-1.0
202527AAAARI267.248/.316/.57019582—.194/.248/.431
202527MLBMIA134.175/.256/.3837081-0.9
202628No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB29MLBARI24.216/.282/.4181091-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB30MLBARI74.212/.277/.4103188-0.1
Last 3 seasons WAR -3.5  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2028Service4.000First FA2029
2027Arb-2$0.4M2028Arb-3$0.7M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025
Bat Spd72
Barrel%63
Avg EV51
xwOBA10
Speed10
CompsDaniel Palka (age 29) · Edwin Rios (age 28) · Matt Clark (age 29)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†91
AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .282 / .418
PA24
HR1
K%29
BB%8
BABIP265
ISO182
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.5 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: -0.5 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -4.2 runs (Positional adjustment)-4POSREP: +5.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 60
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025
CONTACT45
xAVG
100.174
POWER60
Barrel%
6310.2
Avg EV
5189.2
Bat Spd
7273.6
EYE40
scouting grade only
SPEED50
Sprint
1025.2
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-2
MLB Debut   2023
Service   4.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2028
First FA Year   2029
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-2$0.4M———
2028Arb-3$0.7M———
Totals $0.0M $-0.4M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202123 AAAIowa Cubs — 1514 4100 140 00 286333357690 71400 277 313 65 — — — — — —
202123 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 289245 501119 36663 60 204312367680 163236 2312 305 42 — — — — — —
202224 AAAIowa Cubs — 240209 6215115 25355 00 297385593978 297294 1510 422 122 — — — — — —
202224 AATennessee Smokies — 230203 6116114 20464 20 300374596971 296322 209 415 117 — — — — — —
202224 A+South Bend Cubs — 108100 35907 5262 00 3503936501.043 300412 245 447 117 — — — — — —
202224 INTLMesa Solar Sox — 6861 16206 581 20 262328590919 328208 127 390 150 — — — — — —
202325 MLBChicago Cubs — 9990 15203 8321 00 167242289531 122218 328 244 52 -6 +0 -2 -10 +2 -1.5
202325 AAAIowa Cubs — 441362 10223122 671007 21 282404533937 251327 2315 407 106 — — — — — —
202426 MLBChicago Cubs — 2826 3100 180 00 115143154297 38167 294 135 -23 -4 +0 -0 -7 +1 -1.0
202426 AAAIowa Cubs — 350302 7115015 371057 42 235332434766 199301 3011 339 61 — — — — — —
202527 MLBMiami Marlins — 134120 21407 11502 00 175256383639 208219 378 283 81 -3 +0 -2 -7 +3 -0.9
202527 AAAReno Aces — 267242 6015319 22682 50 248316570886 322263 258 379 82 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 261236 397010 20903 00 165238322560 157212 348 252 57 -13 +0 -3 -24 +6 -3.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202123 AAA MLEIowa Cubs — 1514 4100 150 00 286333357690 71372 337 264 65 — — — — — —
202123 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 289258 41917 24933 60 159239283522 124201 328 231 42 — — — — — —
202224 AAA MLEIowa Cubs — 240218 5714111 16425 00 261326486813 225273 187 348 122 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLETennessee Smokies — 230208 5315111 15594 20 255317495812 240289 267 341 117 — — — — — —
202224 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 108101 28606 4332 00 277318515833 238337 314 341 117 — — — — — —
202325 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 9990 15203 8321 00 167242289531 122218 328 246 52 -6 +0 -2 -10 +2 -1.5
202325 AAA MLEIowa Cubs — 441383 8919117 461187 21 232326420746 188277 2710 325 106 — — — — — —
202426 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 2827 3100 180 00 111143148291 37167 294 134 -23 -4 +0 -0 -7 +1 -1.0
202426 AAA MLEIowa Cubs — 350312 5812010 271267 42 186266321586 135260 368 258 61 — — — — — —
202527 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 134121 21407 10502 00 174248380628 207219 377 288 81 -3 +0 -2 -7 +3 -0.9
202527 AAA MLEReno Aces — 267248 4811314 16802 50 194248431680 238218 306 290 82 — — — — — —
202123 A MLE2 teams — 304272 441017 25983 60 162240283523 121216 328 233 44 — — — — — —
202123 A RAW2 teams — 304259 541219 37703 60 208313367680 158245 2312 305 44 — — — — — —
202224 AAA MLE4 teams — 646590 15439231 3815012 40 261319492810 231296 236 344 119 — — — — — —
202224 AAA RAW4 teams — 646573 17442242 5511512 40 304377604980 300313 189 420 119 — — — — — —
202325 AAA MLE2 teams — 540473 10421120 541508 21 220310395706 175273 2810 310 96 — — — — — —
202325 AAA RAW2 teams — 540452 11725125 751328 21 259374485858 226307 2414 377 96 — — — — — —
202426 AAA MLE2 teams — 378339 6113010 281347 42 180257307563 127256 357 249 55 — — — — — —
202426 AAA RAW2 teams — 378328 7416015 381137 42 226318412730 186289 3010 324 55 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLE2 teams — 401369 7015322 261304 50 190251425676 236219 326 289 82 — — — — — —
202527 AAA RAW2 teams — 401362 8119326 331184 50 224296508804 285250 298 347 82 — — — — — —
202123 A MLE2 teams — 304273 441017 25983 60 161240282522 121209 328 233 44 — — — — — —
202224 AAA MLE4 teams — 646591 15439231 3815012 40 261319491809 230291 236 344 119 — — — — — —
202325 AAA MLE2 teams — 540473 10421120 541508 21 220310395706 175266 2810 310 96 — — — — — —
202426 AAA MLE2 teams — 378340 6113010 281347 42 179257306563 126253 357 249 55 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLE2 teams — 401368 7015322 261304 50 190251427677 236218 326 289 82 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202426 AAA MLE2 teams — 378340 6113010 281347 42 179257306563 126253 357 249 55 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLE2 teams — 401368 7015322 261304 50 190251427677 236218 326 289 82 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202729 MLB MLEARI 10% 380346 7315217 271114 42 211277413690 202255 297 303 91 -4 +0 +0 -7 +8 0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202729 MLB CTXARI 10% 2422 4101 270 00 216282418700 203265 298 307 91 -0 +0 +0 -0 +1 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202830 MLB MLEARI 27% 272248 5111112 19813 21 207273404678 197252 307 298 88 -4 +0 -2 -5 +6 -0.5
202830 MLB CTXARI 27% 7468 14303 5221 10 212277410687 198262 307 302 88 -1 +0 -1 -1 +2 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 335304 5310013 251124 10 174246336581 161222 337 263 87 -14 +0 -4 -25 +7 -3.6
/ 162G— A+C — 650590 10219025 492178 20 173245332578 159220 338 263 87 -28 +0 -8 -48 +14 -7.1
Career— MLE — 27792507 5291189113 20781340 265 211282400682 189259 297 296 87 -20 +0 -5 -33 +17 -4.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650586 12428226 481909 61 212281399680 188261 297 296 87 -17 +0 -5 -28 +14 -3.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAReno Aces · 267 PAwOBA .370 → .290 (−79)K% 25.5% → 29.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.47%÷1.025×1.200——29.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.24%÷0.964×0.690—×1.0035.92%
HBP% /PA0.75%—×0.940—×1.0030.71%
Singles /BIP13.22%÷0.994×0.930×0.959×1.00311.89%
Doubles /BIP8.62%÷1.069×0.830×0.959×1.0036.44%
Triples /BIP1.72%÷0.902×0.970×0.959×1.0031.78%
Home runs /BIP10.92%÷0.904×0.700—×1.0038.48%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.

Result: wOBA .370 → .290; ISO .322 → .249; BABIP .263 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 350 PAwOBA .334 → .258 (−75)K% 30.0% → 36.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.00%÷0.998×1.200——36.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.57%÷0.949×0.690—×1.0187.83%
HBP% /PA2.00%—×0.940—×1.0181.91%
Singles /BIP20.81%÷0.994×0.930×0.950×1.01818.84%
Doubles /BIP7.61%÷0.962×0.830×0.950×1.0186.36%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×0.950×1.0180.00%
Home runs /BIP7.61%÷1.079×0.700—×1.0185.03%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .334 → .258; ISO .199 → .135; BABIP .301 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIowa Cubs · 441 PAwOBA .400 → .325 (−74)K% 22.7% → 26.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.68%÷1.019×1.200——26.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.74%÷1.014×0.690—×1.03310.36%
HBP% /PA1.59%—×0.940—×1.0331.54%
Singles /BIP21.37%÷1.025×0.930×0.958×1.03319.20%
Doubles /BIP8.78%÷1.049×0.830×0.958×1.0336.87%
Triples /BIP0.38%÷0.916×0.970×0.958×1.0330.40%
Home runs /BIP8.40%÷0.965×0.700—×1.0336.29%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 105, 2B 110, 3B 83, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .400 → .325; ISO .251 → .199; BABIP .327 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAIowa Cubs · 240 PAwOBA .410 → .348 (−61)K% 14.6% → 17.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.58%÷0.988×1.200——17.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.58%÷1.048×0.690—×1.0486.61%
HBP% /PA2.08%—×0.940—×1.0482.05%
Singles /BIP17.82%÷0.985×0.930×0.993×1.04817.51%
Doubles /BIP8.62%÷0.967×0.830×0.993×1.0487.70%
Triples /BIP0.57%÷1.118×0.970×0.993×1.0480.52%
Home runs /BIP8.62%÷0.996×0.700—×1.0486.35%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 97, 2B 93, 3B 124, K 98, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .410 → .348; ISO .297 → .235; BABIP .294 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AATennessee Smokies · 230 PAwOBA .408 → .341 (−67)K% 20.0% → 25.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.00%÷0.958×1.220——25.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.70%÷0.940×0.680—×1.0126.37%
HBP% /PA1.74%—×0.840—×1.0121.48%
Singles /BIP19.11%÷0.982×0.920×0.950×1.01217.21%
Doubles /BIP10.19%÷0.929×0.910×0.950×1.0129.60%
Triples /BIP0.64%÷0.973×0.880×0.950×1.0120.55%
Home runs /BIP8.92%÷1.010×0.800—×1.0127.15%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 96, 2B 86, 3B 95, K 92, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .408 → .341; ISO .296 → .243; BABIP .322 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+South Bend Cubs · 108 PAwOBA .438 → .341 (−97)K% 24.1% → 30.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.07%÷1.003×1.270——30.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.63%÷0.986×0.710—×0.9883.29%
HBP% /PA1.85%—×0.790—×0.9881.45%
Singles /BIP25.68%÷1.010×0.920×0.966×0.98822.31%
Doubles /BIP12.16%÷1.020×0.810×0.966×0.9889.22%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.097×0.850×0.966×0.9880.00%
Home runs /BIP9.46%÷0.938×0.800—×0.9887.97%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 119, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .438 → .341; ISO .300 → .232; BABIP .412 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 289 PAwOBA .298 → .231 (−67)K% 22.8% → 32.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.84%÷0.961×1.360——32.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.76%÷0.963×0.690—×0.9908.35%
HBP% /PA1.04%—×0.780—×0.9900.80%
Singles /BIP16.20%÷1.002×0.920×0.954×0.99014.06%
Doubles /BIP6.15%÷0.923×0.830×0.954×0.9905.22%
Triples /BIP0.56%÷0.977×0.910×0.954×0.9900.49%
Home runs /BIP5.03%÷0.977×0.800—×0.9904.07%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 95, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .298 → .231; ISO .163 → .127; BABIP .236 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIowa Cubs · 15 PAwOBA .305 → .264 (−41)K% 26.7% → 31.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.67%÷1.032×1.200——31.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.67%÷1.023×0.690—×1.0504.72%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP30.00%÷1.039×0.930—×1.05028.19%
Doubles /BIP10.00%÷0.963×0.830—×1.0509.05%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.988×0.920—×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.081×0.700—×1.0500.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 98, K 106, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .305 → .264; ISO .071 → .062; BABIP .400 → .372. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .