Matt Mervis — OGILVIE

Matt Mervis1B Reno Aces

Age 28 L/R 6'2" / 225 lbs AAA HR +4% Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 350 proj PA

wRC+†89

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .275 / .404

PA350

HR16

K%32

BB%8

ISO204

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT45

Whiff%

1017.5%

xwOBA

100.254

POWER60

Barrel%

6310.2

Avg EV

5189.2

Bat Spd

7273.6

EYE40

Chase%

3734.2%

SPEED50

Sprint

1025.2

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$0.7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A	2 teams	—	304	271	44	10	1	7	26	102	3	6	0	162	243	284	527	122	223	34	9	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A	2 teams	—	304	259	54	12	1	9	37	70	3	6	0	208	313	367	680	158	245	23	12	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	4 teams	—	646	590	153	38	2	34	38	159	12	4	0	259	317	503	821	244	295	25	6	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	4 teams	—	646	573	174	42	2	42	55	115	12	4	0	304	377	604	980	300	313	18	9	420	180	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	2 teams	—	540	475	104	19	1	24	52	148	8	2	1	219	307	415	721	196	260	27	10	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	2 teams	—	540	452	117	25	1	25	75	132	8	2	1	259	374	485	858	226	307	24	14	377	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	2 teams	—	378	338	60	13	0	10	29	135	7	4	2	178	257	305	561	127	254	36	8	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	2 teams	—	378	328	74	16	0	15	38	113	7	4	2	226	318	412	730	186	289	30	10	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	2 teams	—	401	367	71	14	3	25	28	134	4	5	0	193	258	452	710	259	219	33	7	298	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	2 teams	—	401	362	81	19	3	26	33	118	4	5	0	224	296	508	804	285	250	29	8	347	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	ARI	—	350	315	65	13	2	16	28	110	4	3	1	206	280	413	692	206	251	31	8	301	89	-4	+0	+0	-6	+10	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	ARI	27%	380	342	69	14	2	17	30	121	5	3	1	202	276	404	679	202	249	32	8	299	87	-6	+0	-1	-7	+11	-0.3
2028	30	MLB	ARI	37%	380	342	67	13	1	17	30	122	5	3	1	196	271	389	659	193	247	32	8	296	85	-7	+0	-2	-7	+11	-0.4
2027	29	MLB	ARI	27%	104	94	19	4	0	5	8	33	1	1	0	202	272	404	676	202	252	32	8	293	83	-2	+0	-0	-2	+3	-0.1
2028	30	MLB	ARI	37%	142	128	27	5	1	7	11	45	2	1	0	211	284	430	713	219	250	32	8	290	80	-3	+0	-1	-3	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	507	458	85	16	1	22	39	168	6	2	0	186	258	369	627	183	232	33	8	271	66	-20	+0	-4	-28	+14	-3.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	109	21	1	28	50	215	8	3	0	186	259	368	626	182	233	33	8	271	66	-25	+1	-6	-36	+18	-4.9
Career	—			—	3379	3040	633	134	12	150	261	1031	48	30	6	208	281	408	690	200	256	31	8	300	88	-46	+4	-7	-60	+96	-1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	122	26	2	29	50	198	9	6	1	209	281	409	690	200	256	30	8	300	88	-9	+1	-1	-12	+18	-0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	15	14	4	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	286	333	357	690	71	400	27	7	313	98	-0	+0	—	—	+0	0.0
2021	23	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	289	245	50	11	1	9	36	66	3	6	0	204	312	367	680	163	236	23	12	305	91	-3	+1	—	—	+8	0.7
2022	24	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	240	209	62	15	1	15	25	35	5	0	0	297	385	593	978	297	294	15	10	422	181	+22	+0	—	—	+7	2.9
2022	24	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	230	203	61	16	1	14	20	46	4	2	0	300	374	596	971	296	322	20	9	415	175	+20	+0	—	—	+7	2.7
2022	24	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	108	100	35	9	0	7	5	26	2	0	0	350	393	650	1.043	300	412	24	5	447	200	+12	+0	—	—	+3	1.6
2022	24	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	68	61	16	2	0	6	5	8	1	2	0	262	328	590	919	328	208	12	7	390	157	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.7
2023	25	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	99	90	15	2	0	3	8	32	1	0	0	167	242	289	531	122	218	32	8	244	45	-6	+0	-2	-10	+3	-1.5
2023	25	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	441	362	102	23	1	22	67	100	7	2	1	282	404	533	937	251	327	23	15	407	170	+35	+0	—	—	+12	4.8
2024	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	28	26	3	1	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	115	143	154	297	38	167	29	4	135	-38	-4	+0	-0	-7	+1	-1.1
2024	26	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	350	302	71	15	0	15	37	105	7	4	2	235	332	434	766	199	301	30	11	339	117	+7	+0	—	—	+10	1.7
2025	27	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	134	120	21	4	0	7	11	50	2	0	0	175	256	383	639	208	219	37	8	283	75	-4	+0	-2	-7	+4	-0.9
2025	27	AAA	Reno Aces	—	267	242	60	15	3	19	22	68	2	5	0	248	316	570	886	322	263	25	8	379	148	+15	+1	—	—	+8	2.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	261	236	39	7	0	10	20	90	3	0	0	165	238	322	560	157	212	34	8	252	51	-14	+0	-3	-24	+7	-3.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	8	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
	/162	664	23	9	238	296	413	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	7	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
	/162	664	24	2	242	294	417	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	514	23	2	189	262	377	-9	-5	-0.9	-0.8
	/162	664	29	3	189	262	377	-11.9	-5.9	-1.2	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Mervis (OGILVIE)	28	45	60	50	40	202/275/404	202	251	16	3	32%	8%	89	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Edwin Rios 2022 · MLB	28	38→47	59→60	46→30	41	210/283/415	205	278	28	5	35%	8%	95	+1.4	222/289/404	182	318	23	4	36%	7%	93	+1.3	218/288/401	183	314	23	1	36%	7%	89	+0.5
✕Darick Hall 2023 · MLB	28	39→40	56→55	45→40	41	217/270/408	192	260	25	5	28%	6%	86	+0.8	219/276/373	154	274	21	4	27%	7%	79	+0.3	209/272/336	127	265	18	1	28%	7%	65	-0.4
✕Matt Clark 2015 · MLB	28	45→49	57→60	46→30	41	241/294/432	192	292	27	3	28%	6%	103	+1.9	227/280/402	175	276	24	3	27%	6%	89	+1.0	221/279/404	183	263	25	0	27%	7%	89	+0.7
✕Josh Lester 2022 · AAA	28	37→41	57→60	46→40	38	208/257/406	197	273	26	4	34%	6%	81	+0.4	209/257/391	182	259	24	5	29%	6%	76	+0.1	201/249/376	174	242	23	3	28%	5%	67	-0.5
✕Bobby Dalbec 2023 · MLB	28	42	59→60	53→50	41	226/291/432	206	298	28	6	34%	7%	102	+1.8	210/282/396	186	316	25	12	39%	8%	89	+0.9	197/272/380	184	302	25	13	41%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Christin Stewart 2022 · MLB	28	41→50	55→60	47→45	41	219/279/402	183	282	23	4	31%	6%	89	+0.9	212/292/392	180	299	24	10	35%	9%	92	+1.2	185/286/359	175	256	26	11	37%	11%	78	+0.1
✕Lewin Díaz 2023 · MLB	26	37→44	58→60	48→30	42	211/266/408	198	241	27	3	27%	6%	85	+0.7	218/287/373	155	267	19	5	25%	8%	84	+0.6	211/291/346	135	257	18	2	25%	9%	77	+0.1
●Cory Aldridge 2006 · AAA	27	38→48	59→55	51→45	37	218/256/420	202	267	28	12	31%	5%	84	+0.6	220/273/359	139	307	14	9	31%	7%	74	-0.1	231/291/398	167	301	19	3	29%	7%	90	+0.6
✕Daniel Palka 2019 · MLB	27	42→44	56→55	43→50	39	225/274/408	183	298	25	5	33%	6%	88	+0.9	210/274/379	169	272	22	5	30%	8%	80	+0.4	217/279/385	168	275	23	3	29%	8%	80	+0.3
✕AJ Reed 2019 · MLB	26	38→48	56→60	46→30	43	212/277/400	188	273	25	2	32%	8%	87	+0.8	199/261/351	152	290	19	5	37%	7%	68	-0.5	147/216/267	120	228	15	0	41%	7%	25	-1.8
✕Jason Perry 2009 · MLB	28	43→50	55	52→45	42	227/299/415	188	294	23	7	31%	7%	101	+1.8	223/300/397	174	295	21	9	30%	8%	96	+1.5	175/280/337	163	222	21	4	31%	11%	72	-0.0
✕Bill Rhinehart 2012 · AA	27	41→46	58→55	43→40	44	227/284/425	199	268	26	4	27%	7%	97	+1.5	216/272/362	146	274	17	5	27%	7%	75	-0.0	188/237/290	103	245	10	1	27%	6%	38	-1.5
✕Chris Shaw 2021 · MLB	27	43	55→60	45→30	37	228/278/411	183	305	24	4	33%	5%	91	+1.1	189/265/326	137	333	16	7	44%	9%	63	-0.8	114/217/256	141	217	21	2	54%	11%	24	-1.3
✕J.J. Matijevic 2023 · MLB	27	44→42	58→60	52→50	42	230/293/433	203	313	26	12	34%	8%	102	+1.9	226/286/400	174	310	19	11	32%	7%	90	+1.0	213/276/388	175	290	18	8	32%	7%	79	+0.3
✕Brendan Katin 2011 · AAA	28	37→47	57→60	49→45	36	206/268/401	194	282	25	5	36%	6%	84	+0.6	220/281/419	199	300	26	7	35%	6%	95	+1.4	165/226/420	255	200	37	0	41%	6%	69	-0.1
●Matt Davidson 2020 · MLB	29	39→44	57→60	45→30	40	214/282/405	191	288	26	2	35%	7%	91	+1.1	229/295/441	212	296	30	3	33%	7%	106	+2.2	234/307/465	232	293	35	0	32%	7%	114	+1.7
●Ryan O'Hearn 2022 · MLB	29	43→53	57→60	48→45	46	232/296/425	193	276	27	5	27%	8%	102	+1.9	255/306/422	167	305	20	6	23%	6%	105	+2.1	274/351/443	169	311	21	3	18%	9%	124	+2.6
✕Andy Wilkins 2019 · MLB	30	32→42	55	51→45	42	189/256/365	176	245	24	6	34%	8%	69	-0.4	193/262/347	154	306	20	7	41%	8%	67	-0.5	131/216/258	127	220	19	0	48%	9%	25	-1.2
●Reynaldo Rodriguez 2014 · AAA	28	38→47	56→60	47→50	41	208/261/408	199	257	23	8	30%	6%	82	+0.5	229/274/409	180	263	21	8	22%	5%	88	+0.9	250/295/458	208	274	27	11	20%	6%	108	+1.3
✕Jabari Blash 2016 · AAA	27	39→41	58→60	48→50	44	214/292/419	206	279	27	9	33%	8%	98	+1.6	208/310/397	189	306	24	7	37%	11%	101	+1.8	194/309/387	193	292	25	6	39%	12%	95	+0.9