Matt Mervis — OGILVIE

Matt Mervis1B Reno Aces

Age 28 L/R 6'2" / 225 lbs AAA HR -11% Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†85

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%7

BABIP254

ISO154

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT45

Whiff%

1017.5%

xAVG

100.174

POWER60

Barrel%

6310.2

Avg EV

5189.2

Bat Spd

7273.6

EYE40

Chase%

3734.2%

SPEED50

Sprint

1025.2

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.0M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	15	14	4	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	286	333	357	690	71	400	27	7	313	98	-0	+0	—	—	+0	0.0
2021	23	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	289	245	50	11	1	9	36	66	3	6	0	204	312	367	680	163	236	23	12	305	92	-3	+1	—	—	+6	0.5
2022	24	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	240	209	62	15	1	15	25	35	5	0	0	297	385	593	978	297	294	15	10	422	172	+20	+0	—	—	+5	2.6
2022	24	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	230	203	61	16	1	14	20	46	4	2	0	300	374	596	971	296	322	20	9	415	167	+18	+0	—	—	+5	2.4
2022	24	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	108	100	35	9	0	7	5	26	2	0	0	350	393	650	1.043	300	412	24	5	447	189	+11	+0	—	—	+2	1.4
2022	24	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	68	61	16	2	0	6	5	8	1	2	0	262	328	590	919	328	208	12	7	390	150	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2023	25	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	99	90	15	2	0	3	8	32	1	0	0	167	242	289	531	122	218	32	8	244	51	-6	+0	-2	-10	+2	-1.5
2023	25	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	441	362	102	23	1	22	67	100	7	2	1	282	404	533	937	251	327	23	15	407	162	+32	+0	—	—	+10	4.3
2024	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	28	26	3	1	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	115	143	154	297	38	167	29	4	135	-22	-4	+0	-0	-7	+1	-1.0
2024	26	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	350	302	71	15	0	15	37	105	7	4	2	235	332	434	766	199	301	30	11	339	115	+6	+0	—	—	+8	1.4
2025	27	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	134	120	21	4	0	7	11	50	2	0	0	175	256	383	639	208	219	37	8	283	78	-4	+0	-2	-7	+3	-1.0
2025	27	AAA	Reno Aces	—	267	242	60	15	3	19	22	68	2	5	0	248	316	570	886	322	263	25	8	379	143	+14	+1	—	—	+6	2.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	261	236	39	7	0	10	20	90	3	0	0	165	238	322	560	157	212	34	8	252	57	-13	+0	-3	-24	+6	-3.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	23	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	15	14	4	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	286	333	357	690	71	355	33	7	253	57	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2021	23	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	289	258	41	9	1	7	24	93	3	6	0	159	239	283	522	124	203	32	8	233	44	-19	+1	—	—	+6	-1.2
2022	24	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	240	219	55	13	1	11	15	42	5	0	0	251	314	470	784	219	259	18	6	334	112	+3	+0	—	—	+5	0.9
2022	24	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	230	208	53	14	1	11	15	59	4	2	0	255	317	490	808	236	284	26	7	334	112	+3	+0	—	—	+5	0.9
2022	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	108	101	27	6	0	6	4	35	2	0	0	267	308	505	813	238	343	32	4	340	116	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2023	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	99	90	15	2	0	3	8	32	1	0	0	167	242	289	531	122	218	32	8	243	51	-6	+0	-2	-10	+2	-1.5
2023	25	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	441	385	87	18	1	17	44	118	7	2	1	226	317	410	727	184	267	27	10	316	100	+0	+0	—	—	+10	1.0
2024	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	28	27	3	1	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	111	143	148	291	37	167	29	4	133	-24	-4	+0	-0	-7	+1	-1.0
2024	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	350	312	56	12	0	9	27	126	7	4	2	179	260	304	565	125	255	36	8	254	58	-17	+0	—	—	+8	-1.0
2025	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	134	120	21	4	0	7	11	50	2	0	0	175	256	383	639	208	219	37	8	284	78	-3	+0	-2	-7	+3	-1.0
2025	27	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	267	248	46	10	2	15	16	85	2	5	0	185	241	423	664	238	211	32	6	287	80	-6	+1	—	—	+6	0.1
2021	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	304	272	45	10	1	7	25	98	3	6	0	165	243	287	530	121	222	32	8	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	304	259	54	12	1	9	37	70	3	6	0	208	313	367	680	158	245	23	12	305	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	646	591	149	37	2	30	37	152	12	4	0	252	309	474	783	222	287	24	6	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA RAW	4 teams	—	646	573	174	42	2	42	55	115	12	4	0	304	377	604	980	300	313	18	9	420	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	540	475	102	20	1	20	52	150	8	2	1	215	303	387	690	173	265	28	10	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	540	452	117	25	1	25	75	132	8	2	1	259	374	485	858	226	307	24	14	377	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	378	339	59	13	0	9	28	134	7	4	2	174	251	292	543	118	250	35	7	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	378	328	74	16	0	15	38	113	7	4	2	226	318	412	730	186	289	30	10	324	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	401	368	69	15	2	23	27	135	4	5	0	188	251	427	677	239	217	34	7	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	401	362	81	19	3	26	33	118	4	5	0	224	296	508	804	285	250	29	8	347	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	304	273	45	10	1	7	25	98	3	6	0	165	243	286	529	121	211	32	8	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	646	592	149	37	2	30	37	152	12	4	0	252	309	473	782	221	285	24	6	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	540	475	102	20	1	20	52	150	8	2	1	215	303	387	690	173	258	28	10	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	378	340	59	13	0	9	28	134	7	4	2	174	251	291	543	118	248	35	7	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	401	367	69	15	2	23	27	135	4	5	0	188	251	428	678	240	214	34	7	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	540	475	102	20	1	20	52	150	8	2	1	215	303	387	690	173	258	28	10	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	378	340	59	13	0	9	28	134	7	4	2	174	251	291	543	118	248	35	7	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	401	367	69	15	2	23	27	135	4	5	0	188	251	428	678	240	214	34	7	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	28	MLB MLE	ARI	10%	28	26	5	1	0	1	2	9	0	0	0	192	250	346	596	154	249	32	7	294	85	-0	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.3
▸ 2026 — real world (MLB)
2026	28	MLB CTX	ARI	10%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						254	33	0	285	85	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	ARI	27%	380	342	67	14	1	16	30	121	5	3	1	196	271	383	654	187	247	32	8	292	84	-7	+0	-1	-7	+8	-0.7
2027	29	MLB CTX	ARI	27%	104	94	18	4	0	4	8	33	1	1	0	191	262	362	624	170	253	32	8	283	84	-2	+0	-0	-2	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	365	330	57	11	0	14	28	123	4	1	0	173	245	333	579	161	221	34	8	261	83	-15	+0	-4	-25	+8	-3.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	102	20	0	25	50	219	7	2	0	173	246	335	581	162	221	34	8	261	83	-27	+0	-7	-45	+14	-6.6
Career	—	MLE		—	2677	2413	496	110	7	106	201	799	39	24	4	206	277	389	666	183	255	30	8	290	83	-21	+0	-5	-31	+14	-4.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	121	27	2	26	49	194	9	6	1	206	278	392	670	186	255	30	8	290	83	-21	+0	-5	-30	+14	-4.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#3John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.6	372	16	1	183	257	363	-7	-3	-0.9	-0.8
/162	664	28	2	-11.9	-5.4	-1.6	pk7: -1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Mervis (OGILVIE)	28	45	60	50	40	198/271/389	191	249	15	3	32%	8%	85	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Edwin Rios 2022 · MLB	28	38→48	58→60	46→30	42	210/284/411	202	280	27	5	35%	8%	95	+0.9	218/288/390	172	316	21	4	36%	7%	91	+0.6	213/285/383	170	311	21	1	36%	8%	85	+0.1
✕Darick Hall 2023 · MLB	28	39→38	54→55	45→40	42	213/269/389	176	259	22	5	28%	6%	84	+0.1	215/274/354	139	273	18	4	27%	7%	76	-0.4	204/268/315	111	263	15	1	28%	7%	63	-0.8
✕Josh Lester 2022 · AAA	28	37→42	56→55	46→40	38	207/256/395	188	270	24	4	33%	6%	80	-0.2	207/253/371	164	261	20	5	29%	5%	73	-0.6	200/247/354	154	246	19	3	27%	5%	65	-1.1
✕Matt Clark 2015 · MLB	28	45	55	46→30	42	239/294/419	180	290	25	3	27%	6%	99	+1.3	227/282/389	162	280	21	3	26%	6%	88	+0.4	222/280/391	169	270	22	0	26%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Lewin Díaz 2023 · MLB	26	36→45	54→60	48→30	42	203/258/378	175	235	23	3	26%	6%	77	-0.3	216/284/357	141	267	17	5	25%	8%	81	-0.1	211/287/331	120	260	15	2	24%	9%	74	-0.4
✕Christin Stewart 2022 · MLB	28	40→49	52→55	47→45	41	213/276/383	169	279	20	4	31%	7%	84	+0.2	206/288/364	158	300	20	10	36%	9%	85	+0.2	177/277/321	144	259	20	11	38%	10%	69	-0.6
✕Sam Hilliard 2022 · MLB	28	35→45	57→55	55	41	197/263/394	197	267	26	15	36%	8%	82	+0.0	212/287/384	172	293	21	16	33%	9%	88	+0.5	203/279/378	175	281	20	18	34%	9%	82	+0.0
✕Daniel Palka 2021 · MLB	29	38→43	53→55	44→50	45	208/275/378	169	269	22	5	31%	8%	83	+0.1	217/282/371	154	277	20	5	28%	8%	84	+0.1	210/273/358	148	265	20	3	28%	8%	74	-0.4
✕AJ Reed 2019 · MLB	26	37→47	56→60	46→30	44	208/276/391	183	267	25	2	32%	8%	86	+0.3	199/266/349	150	287	19	5	36%	7%	73	-0.6	151/223/270	119	229	15	0	40%	7%	37	-1.7
✕Jon Knott 2007 · MLB	28	40	56→55	45→40	45	219/282/412	193	255	23	4	25%	7%	93	+0.8	217/285/378	161	270	18	5	26%	8%	86	+0.3	206/278/352	146	258	16	3	26%	8%	75	-0.4
✕Chris Shaw 2021 · MLB	27	42→43	54→55	45→30	38	223/275/398	175	299	22	4	33%	5%	87	+0.4	193/271/330	137	326	16	7	42%	9%	70	-0.8	132/233/279	147	220	21	2	48%	11%	42	-1.1
✕Jason Perry 2009 · MLB	28	43→51	52→55	52→45	43	223/296/394	172	291	20	7	30%	7%	95	+0.9	221/300/383	162	292	19	9	30%	8%	93	+0.8	173/279/321	148	220	19	4	30%	11%	72	-0.2
✕Cory Aldridge 2006 · AAA	27	39→49	56→55	51→45	38	215/253/401	186	263	25	12	29%	5%	80	-0.2	221/274/352	131	305	13	9	30%	7%	76	-0.4	240/288/415	175	308	22	2	29%	6%	94	+0.5
✕J.J. Matijevic 2023 · MLB	27	43→41	55	52→50	42	225/287/412	187	306	23	12	34%	8%	95	+1.0	218/281/379	161	300	18	11	32%	7%	85	+0.2	200/265/356	156	273	16	8	32%	8%	71	-0.7
✕Bobby Dalbec 2023 · MLB	28	43→44	59→60	53→50	41	229/294/437	208	303	28	6	34%	7%	103	+1.6	206/279/374	168	318	22	12	40%	8%	84	+0.1	192/267/353	160	306	21	13	42%	8%	71	-0.7
✕Shelley Duncan 2008 · MLB	28	41→45	57→60	43→45	44	225/283/415	190	260	26	4	26%	7%	95	+0.9	222/292/399	177	261	23	5	24%	8%	94	+0.9	223/298/399	176	259	22	2	23%	8%	93	+0.6
✕Kyle Garlick 2020 · MLB	28	39→49	56→60	47→40	35	211/260/398	187	297	24	4	37%	5%	82	-0.0	227/280/421	194	306	25	6	33%	6%	95	+0.9	203/270/375	172	279	24	2	35%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Brendan Katin 2011 · AAA	28	38→48	56→60	49→45	36	207/269/398	191	284	25	5	36%	6%	86	+0.3	221/285/419	198	305	26	7	35%	7%	97	+1.1	163/222/419	255	201	37	0	42%	6%	71	-0.2
✕Laynce Nix 2009 · MLB	28	42→48	55→60	47→45	38	224/270/402	178	285	23	7	30%	5%	86	+0.3	244/297/438	194	295	23	5	25%	7%	105	+1.7	251/305/455	204	294	24	1	23%	7%	105	+0.8
✕O'Koyea Dickson 2019 · AAA	29	41→46	54→55	44→45	44	220/281/396	176	262	22	6	26%	7%	89	+0.5	232/290/381	149	270	16	9	20%	6%	88	+0.5	237/288/397	160	256	14	0	14%	5%	88	+0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps