Luken Baker — OGILVIE

Luken Baker1B Reno Aces

Age 29 R/R 6'4" / 285 lbs AAA HR -5% Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 0.2 · 2026

wRC+†vL 156102vR -8

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .312 / .436

PA250

HR12

K%28

BB%12

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

40→40

PWR

60→60

SPD

45→45

EYE

55↗60

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2027

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$0.0M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.8M
2027	Arb-2	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2028	Arb-3	$0.8M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.8M		$2M	+$0.8M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	21	A	2 teams	184	169	44	9	0	3	13	44	0	0	0	.260	.313	.367	.680	.107	.331	24	7	.300	88	-2	+0	+0	-3	+5	-0.1
2019	22	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	496	452	83	25	1	9	39	157	3	1	1	.184	.253	.303	.556	.119	.257	32	8	.247	47	-30	-0	+0	-9	+14	-2.5
2021	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	391	359	67	13	0	22	26	138	2	0	0	.187	.245	.407	.652	.220	.222	35	7	.279	72	-13	+0	+0	-7	+11	-0.9
2022	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	513	477	86	11	0	16	24	159	5	0	0	.180	.227	.304	.531	.124	.227	31	5	.233	37	-37	+0	+0	-9	+15	-3.2
2023	26	AAA	2 teams	479	419	111	22	0	32	53	123	3	0	0	.265	.352	.547	.898	.282	.295	26	11	.382	150	+27	+0	-1	-9	+14	3.2
2024	27	AAA	2 teams	501	439	83	16	1	29	51	148	2	1	0	.189	.276	.428	.705	.239	.199	30	10	.303	90	-6	+0	-1	-9	+14	-0.1
2025	28	AAA	2 teams	450	399	72	19	0	14	45	142	2	0	0	.180	.267	.333	.600	.153	.235	32	10	.268	63	-19	+0	-0	-8	+13	-1.4
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	29	AAA	Reno Aces	47	39	7	2	0	1	7	15	0	0	0	.179	.304	.308	.612	.128	.250	32	15	.278	71	-2	+0	+0	-1	+1	-0.1
ROS	29	MLB	ARI	203	176	37	9	0	9	24	58	1	1	0	.210	.308	.415	.723	.205	.257	29	12	.328	109	+2	+0	-2	-4	+6	0.3
TOT	29	MLB	ARI	250	215	44	11	0	10	31	73	1	1	0	.205	.308	.395	.703	.191	.254	29	12	.318	102	+1	+0	-1	-4	+7	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	30	MLB 20%	ARI	380	328	72	17	1	17	47	95	2	0	0	.220	.321	.433	.754	.213	.251	25	12	.331	111	+5	+0	-5	-7	+11	0.4
2028	31	MLB 33%	ARI	365	316	69	16	1	15	44	92	2	0	0	.218	.318	.418	.735	.199	.253	25	12	.326	108	+3	+0	-6	-7	+10	0.2
2029	32	MLB 43%	ARI	346	300	65	15	1	14	41	89	2	0	0	.217	.315	.413	.728	.197	.254	26	12	.321	104	+2	+0	-6	-6	+10	-0.1
2030	33	MLB 52%	ARI	316	274	58	13	1	12	37	83	2	0	0	.212	.310	.398	.708	.186	.253	26	12	.316	100	-0	+0	-7	-6	+9	-0.4
2031	34	MLB 64%	ARI	272	237	48	11	0	10	32	74	1	0	0	.203	.300	.376	.676	.173	.250	27	12	.308	94	-2	+0	-7	-5	+8	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4896	4345	895	196	6	202	476	1402	27	3	1	.206	.288	.393	.682	.187	.249	29	10	.300	88	-69	+0	-34	-87	+139	-5.2
/ 162G	—			650	577	119	26	1	27	63	186	4	0	0	.206	.289	.395	.684	.189	.249	29	10	.300	88	-9	+0	-4	-12	+18	-0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	21	A	Peoria Chiefs	156	139	40	9	0	3	16	31	0	0	0	.288	.361	.417	.779	.129	.349	20	10	.348	125	+4	+0	—	—	+4	0.9
2018	21	ROK	GCL Cardinals	28	24	12	2	0	1	3	4	0	0	0	.500	.556	.708	1.264	.208	.550	14	11	.532	265	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2019	22	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	496	439	107	32	1	10	52	112	3	1	1	.244	.328	.390	.717	.146	.304	23	10	.322	105	+3	-0	—	—	+14	1.7
2021	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	391	347	86	20	0	26	38	103	2	0	0	.248	.326	.530	.856	.282	.270	26	10	.368	140	+18	+0	—	—	+11	2.9
2022	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	513	464	106	14	0	21	37	129	5	0	0	.228	.292	.394	.687	.166	.265	25	7	.303	90	-6	+0	—	—	+15	0.9
2023	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	99	86	18	3	0	2	13	31	0	0	0	.209	.313	.314	.627	.105	.302	31	13	.291	81	-2	+0	-1	-9	+3	-0.9
2023	26	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	380	314	105	22	0	33	59	76	3	0	0	.334	.444	.720	1.164	.385	.344	20	16	.488	232	+57	+0	—	—	+11	6.9
2024	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	49	40	7	1	1	2	7	11	0	1	0	.175	.298	.400	.698	.225	.172	22	14	.299	87	-1	+0	-1	-9	+1	-0.9
2024	27	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	452	376	87	18	0	32	67	110	2	0	0	.231	.351	.535	.885	.303	.228	24	15	.379	148	+25	+0	—	—	+13	3.8
2025	28	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	41	34	8	3	0	0	7	10	0	0	0	.235	.366	.324	.689	.088	.333	24	17	.323	106	+0	+0	-0	-8	+1	-0.7
2025	28	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	409	345	77	21	0	18	58	104	2	0	0	.223	.338	.441	.779	.217	.260	25	14	.344	122	+10	+0	—	—	+12	2.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			189	160	33	7	1	4	27	52	0	1	0	.206	.321	.338	.658	.131	.274	28	14	.300	88	-3	+0	-2	-26	+5	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luken Baker (OGILVIE)	29	40	60	45	60	.216/.312/.436	.220	.257	12	1	28%	12%	112	+1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Chris Carter 2016 · MLB	29	38→48	60→65	43→45	50	.212/.306/.429	.217	.272	30	4	33%	11%	108	+2.3	.210/.303/.438	.228	.269	32	4	33%	11%	108	+2.3	.204/.305/.458	.255	.259	37	1	36%	11%	112	+1.8
●Rhys Hoskins 2022 · MLB	29	44→52	61→60	43→45	59	.236/.347/.469	.233	.271	28	4	24%	13%	134	+4.1	.237/.324/.449	.212	.281	27	4	25%	11%	120	+3.1	.226/.317/.410	.184	.276	25	3	27%	11%	103	+1.7
●Daniel Vogelbach 2022 · MLB	29	42→50	58→60	45→40	64	.227/.348/.425	.197	.263	27	2	24%	16%	123	+3.3	.244/.353/.426	.182	.299	22	2	24%	14%	125	+3.5	.243/.357/.432	.189	.297	24	0	25%	15%	121	+2.1
●Jorge Soler 2022 · MLB	30	42→52	64→65	45	53	.237/.327/.478	.241	.267	33	2	26%	11%	128	+3.7	.231/.320/.447	.216	.271	28	2	26%	11%	118	+3.0	.234/.326/.453	.219	.273	29	1	26%	11%	119	+2.5
●Mark Trumbo 2015 · MLB	29	45→51	59→65	41→45	46	.243/.300/.448	.205	.285	28	5	26%	8%	109	+2.4	.250/.305/.461	.211	.292	29	3	25%	7%	115	+2.7	.250/.305/.462	.212	.289	30	1	25%	7%	111	+2.5
●Jesús Aguilar 2019 · MLB	29	46→50	60	46→40	48	.248/.316/.462	.214	.290	29	2	26%	8%	120	+3.1	.255/.334/.452	.197	.295	26	2	22%	10%	124	+3.4	.249/.330/.435	.185	.277	25	0	20%	10%	115	+1.7
✕Jordan Luplow 2023 · MLB	29	37→47	61→65	44→50	53	.212/.305/.430	.219	.236	30	8	26%	11%	108	+2.3	.218/.299/.393	.175	.256	23	12	24%	9%	95	+1.4	.209/.291/.363	.153	.248	19	15	24%	9%	81	+0.2
●Hunter Renfroe 2021 · MLB	29	38→46	66→70	50→45	47	.225/.293/.473	.248	.252	35	6	28%	8%	114	+2.7	.241/.304/.463	.222	.273	30	3	24%	8%	115	+2.8	.241/.303/.447	.207	.272	27	1	23%	8%	106	+2.0
✕Rowdy Tellez 2023 · MLB	28	42→50	59→60	43→45	53	.233/.310/.443	.210	.245	28	3	20%	9%	112	+2.6	.225/.293/.403	.178	.256	24	3	23%	9%	95	+1.4	.222/.284/.391	.169	.257	24	1	24%	8%	84	+0.4
●Mark Reynolds 2013 · MLB	29	39→49	59→65	40→50	54	.212/.321/.421	.209	.272	27	5	32%	13%	111	+2.5	.216/.308/.401	.185	.274	25	5	29%	11%	101	+1.8	.254/.337/.432	.179	.329	22	2	28%	11%	113	+2.2
✕Shelley Duncan 2009 · MLB	29	41→43	58→60	46→45	47	.226/.291/.423	.197	.259	27	6	25%	8%	99	+1.7	.228/.299/.420	.192	.263	25	4	24%	8%	102	+1.9	.224/.299/.412	.188	.256	25	2	23%	8%	96	+1.1
✕Jared Walsh 2022 · MLB	29	49→52	61→60	45→30	46	.257/.324/.483	.226	.313	29	3	27%	8%	128	+3.7	.214/.282/.380	.166	.290	21	4	32%	8%	84	+0.6	.175/.250/.311	.136	.252	18	2	37%	8%	49	-1.0
●Joc Pederson 2021 · MLB	29	42→52	65	41→55	52	.240/.323/.488	.247	.253	33	4	21%	9%	129	+3.7	.244/.326/.449	.205	.282	26	4	23%	9%	121	+3.2	.257/.362/.473	.216	.296	28	5	22%	12%	134	+3.0
●Pedro Álvarez 2016 · MLB	29	43→47	62→65	47→45	49	.240/.312/.460	.220	.281	31	6	27%	9%	118	+3.0	.238/.300/.444	.206	.284	29	4	27%	8%	108	+2.3	.228/.284/.427	.199	.271	29	1	27%	7%	93	+0.9
●Mike Ford 2021 · MLB	29	42→50	57→60	44→30	50	.229/.298/.423	.194	.244	26	3	20%	8%	102	+1.9	.207/.289/.374	.167	.249	22	3	26%	9%	86	+0.8	.224/.307/.411	.187	.267	26	2	26%	9%	100	+0.8
●Ryan O'Hearn 2022 · MLB	29	41→51	57→60	47→45	47	.225/.292/.414	.189	.266	26	4	27%	8%	97	+1.5	.254/.307/.424	.170	.304	21	6	23%	6%	105	+2.1	.277/.344/.445	.168	.320	19	5	19%	8%	120	+2.5
★Brent Rooker 2023 · MLB	28	39→49	62→65	44→45	42	.217/.298/.444	.227	.283	30	6	34%	8%	108	+2.3	.255/.331/.494	.239	.323	33	7	30%	9%	134	+4.1	.267/.344/.510	.242	.325	33	7	27%	9%	138	+4.5
✕Eric Munson 2006 · MLB	28	42→43	59→60	45→40	48	.233/.296/.438	.205	.254	29	4	22%	8%	105	+2.1	.224/.290/.390	.166	.254	21	4	21%	8%	90	+1.0	.209/.286/.342	.134	.246	14	1	21%	9%	74	-0.0
✕Mike Jacobs 2010 · MLB	29	45→54	59→65	44→40	47	.245/.304/.453	.208	.283	27	2	24%	8%	112	+2.6	.224/.282/.388	.164	.275	21	3	26%	8%	85	+0.7	.217/.278/.367	.151	.275	20	2	28%	8%	76	+0.1
✕Bobby Dalbec 2022 · MLB	27	42→44	62→60	46→50	42	.230/.300/.457	.227	.299	31	5	34%	8%	112	+2.6	.219/.289/.416	.197	.312	27	10	37%	8%	97	+1.5	.200/.275/.384	.184	.313	25	13	42%	8%	78	+0.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)