Luken Baker

1B Reno Aces

Age 30 R/R 6'4" / 285 lbs AAA HR -11% Svc 0.458 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAAPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	27	AAASTL	452	.231/.351/.535	32	0	78	—	.180/.265/.386
2024	27	MLBSTL	49	.175/.298/.400	2	1	94	-0.9
2025	28	AAALAD	409	.223/.338/.441	18	0	65	—	.180/.259/.333
2025	28	MLBSTL	41	.235/.366/.324	0	0	104	-0.7
2026	29	AAAARI	211	.218/.330/.352	3	0	47	—	.176/.258/.277
2027PROJ10% MLB	30	MLBARI	16	.210/.292/.378	0	0	85	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	31	MLBARI	42	.208/.288/.369	1	0	81	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.6 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.458First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.3M2031Ext$0.4M2032Ext$0.7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Max EV89

BB%76

Chase%70

Speed49

Whiff%31

K%26

CompsBrett Carroll (age 30) · Jon Knott (age 29) · Clint Coulter (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8985vR 72

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .292 / .378

PA16

HR0

K%31

BB%12

BABIP275

ISO71

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

xAVG

100.191

POWER60

Barrel%

406.9

Avg EV

3287.8

Bat Spd

6472.8

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

1025.1

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 83 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

161

◀◀L

wOBA

406

182

◀◀L

ISO

242

046

◀◀L

BABIP

354

133

◀◀L

21.4%

29.6%

◀◀L

BB%

17.9%

14.8%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 0.458 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	21	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	156	139	40	9	0	3	16	31	0	0	0	288	361	417	779	129	349	20	10	348	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	ROK	GCL Cardinals	—	28	24	12	2	0	1	3	4	0	0	0	500	556	708	1.264	208	550	14	11	532	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	496	439	107	32	1	10	52	112	3	1	1	244	328	390	717	146	304	23	10	322	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	391	347	86	20	0	26	38	103	2	0	0	248	326	530	856	282	270	26	10	368	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	513	464	106	14	0	21	37	129	5	0	0	228	292	394	687	166	265	25	7	303	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	99	86	18	3	0	2	13	31	0	0	0	209	313	314	627	105	302	31	13	291	86	-2	+0	-1	-9	+2	-0.9
2023	26	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	380	314	105	22	0	33	59	76	3	0	0	334	444	720	1.164	385	344	20	16	488	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	49	40	7	1	1	2	7	11	0	1	0	175	298	400	698	225	172	22	14	299	94	-0	+0	-1	-9	+1	-0.9
2024	27	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	452	376	87	18	0	32	67	110	2	0	0	231	351	535	885	303	228	24	15	379	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	41	34	8	3	0	0	7	10	0	0	0	235	366	324	689	88	333	24	17	323	104	+0	+0	-0	-8	+1	-0.7
2025	28	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	—	409	345	77	21	0	18	58	104	2	0	0	223	338	441	779	217	260	25	14	344	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA	Reno Aces	—	211	179	39	11	2	3	28	59	2	0	1	218	330	352	682	134	303	28	13	310	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	189	160	33	7	1	4	27	52	0	1	0	206	321	338	658	131	274	28	14	300	89	-2	+0	-2	-26	+4	-2.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	21	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	156	144	33	7	0	2	11	41	0	0	0	229	284	319	603	90	308	26	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	ROK MLE	GCL Cardinals	—	28	25	9	1	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	360	407	520	927	160	430	21	7	414	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	496	452	85	26	1	9	39	157	3	1	1	188	257	310	567	122	260	32	8	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	391	359	70	15	0	20	26	129	2	0	0	195	253	404	657	209	225	33	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	513	476	86	11	0	14	25	159	5	0	0	181	229	292	521	111	227	31	5	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	99	86	18	3	0	2	13	31	0	0	0	209	313	314	627	105	302	31	13	295	86	-2	+0	-1	-9	+2	-0.9
2023	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	380	333	90	19	0	25	40	92	3	0	0	270	354	553	906	282	290	24	11	386	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	49	40	7	1	1	2	7	11	0	1	0	175	298	400	698	225	172	22	14	307	94	-0	+0	-1	-9	+1	-0.9
2024	27	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	452	399	72	16	0	22	44	138	2	0	0	180	265	386	651	206	196	31	10	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	41	34	8	3	0	0	7	10	0	0	0	235	366	324	689	88	333	24	17	322	104	+0	+0	-0	-8	+1	-0.7
2025	28	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	—	409	366	66	17	0	13	37	123	2	0	0	180	259	333	593	153	224	30	9	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	211	188	33	9	2	2	19	71	2	0	1	176	258	277	535	101	255	34	9	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	184	169	43	9	0	3	13	47	0	0	0	254	308	361	669	107	331	26	7	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	184	163	52	11	0	4	19	35	0	0	0	319	390	460	850	141	381	19	10	376	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	496	452	85	26	1	9	39	157	3	1	1	188	257	310	567	122	264	32	8	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	496	439	107	32	1	10	52	112	3	1	1	244	328	390	717	146	304	23	10	322	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	391	359	70	15	0	20	26	129	2	0	0	195	253	404	657	209	234	33	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	—	391	347	86	20	0	26	38	103	2	0	0	248	326	530	856	282	270	26	10	368	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	513	476	86	11	0	14	25	159	5	0	0	181	229	292	521	111	232	31	5	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	—	513	464	106	14	0	21	37	129	5	0	0	228	292	394	687	166	265	25	7	303	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	479	419	108	22	0	27	53	123	3	0	0	258	345	504	849	246	297	26	11	367	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	479	400	123	25	0	35	72	107	3	0	0	307	417	632	1.049	325	336	22	15	448	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	501	439	79	17	1	24	51	149	2	1	0	180	268	387	656	207	200	30	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	501	416	94	19	1	34	74	121	2	1	0	226	346	522	867	296	222	24	15	371	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	450	400	74	20	0	13	44	133	2	0	0	185	269	333	602	148	236	30	10	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	450	379	85	24	0	18	65	114	2	0	0	224	341	430	771	206	267	25	14	342	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	211	188	33	9	2	2	19	71	2	0	1	176	258	277	535	101	265	34	9	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	—	211	179	39	11	2	3	28	59	2	0	1	218	330	352	682	134	303	28	13	310	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	184	169	43	9	0	3	13	47	0	0	0	254	308	361	669	107	327	26	7	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	496	451	85	26	1	9	39	157	3	1	1	188	257	310	568	122	260	32	8	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	391	360	70	15	0	20	26	129	2	0	0	194	253	403	656	208	225	33	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	513	478	86	11	0	14	25	159	5	0	0	180	229	291	520	111	227	31	5	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	479	420	108	22	0	27	53	123	3	0	0	257	345	502	848	245	292	26	11	367	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	501	443	79	17	1	24	51	149	2	1	0	178	268	384	652	205	194	30	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	450	401	74	20	0	13	44	133	2	0	0	185	269	332	601	147	234	30	10	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	211	188	33	9	2	2	19	71	2	0	1	176	258	277	535	101	255	34	9	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	501	443	79	17	1	24	51	149	2	1	0	178	268	384	652	205	194	30	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	450	401	74	20	0	13	44	133	2	0	0	185	269	332	601	147	234	30	10	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	211	188	33	9	2	2	19	71	2	0	1	176	258	277	535	101	255	34	9	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	ARI	10%	261	232	47	12	1	8	25	77	2	1	0	204	287	370	657	165	263	30	10	293	85	-5	+0	-0	-5	+6	-0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	ARI	10%	16	14	3	1	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	210	292	378	671	168	275	31	12	299	85	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	ARI	27%	153	136	29	7	1	5	15	45	1	1	0	202	283	361	644	159	261	29	10	288	81	-3	+0	-3	-3	+3	-0.6
2028	31	MLB CTX	ARI	27%	42	38	7	2	0	1	4	12	0	0	0	208	288	369	658	162	272	29	10	294	81	-1	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	231	198	40	9	1	5	31	64	0	1	0	202	310	333	643	131	267	28	13	299	75	-3	+0	-3	-26	+5	-2.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	557	112	25	3	14	87	180	0	3	0	201	309	332	641	131	266	28	13	299	75	-9	+1	-7	-74	+14	-7.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3533	3176	636	143	6	122	300	1059	21	4	2	200	274	364	638	164	253	30	8	279	75	-9	+1	-5	-31	+11	-3.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	116	26	1	22	55	195	4	1	0	199	272	360	632	161	251	30	8	279	75	-11	+1	-6	-41	+14	-4.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 211 PAwOBA .305 → .238 (−68)K% 28.0% → 33.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.96%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	33.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.27%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.982	8.99%
HBP% /PA	0.95%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.87%
Singles /BIP	19.17%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.959	×0.982	16.79%
Doubles /BIP	9.17%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.959	×0.982	7.17%
Triples /BIP	1.67%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.959	×0.982	1.52%
Home runs /BIP	2.50%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.982	1.72%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.

Result: wOBA .305 → .238; ISO .134 → .103; BABIP .303 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 409 PAwOBA .339 → .264 (−75)K% 25.4% → 30.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.43%	÷1.015	×1.200	—	—	30.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.18%	÷1.083	×0.690	—	×0.992	8.96%
HBP% /PA	0.49%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.46%
Singles /BIP	15.77%	÷0.951	×0.930	×0.950	×0.992	14.53%
Doubles /BIP	8.71%	÷0.969	×0.830	×0.950	×0.992	7.04%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.47%	÷0.956	×0.700	—	×0.992	5.42%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 90, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 103, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .339 → .264; ISO .217 → .167; BABIP .260 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 452 PAwOBA .373 → .283 (−90)K% 24.3% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.34%	÷0.953	×1.200	—	—	30.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.38%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×1.003	9.81%
HBP% /PA	0.44%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.42%
Singles /BIP	13.91%	÷0.991	×0.930	×0.961	×1.003	12.59%
Doubles /BIP	6.77%	÷0.920	×0.830	×0.961	×1.003	5.89%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.961	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	12.03%	÷1.020	×0.700	—	×1.003	8.28%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 98, 2B 84, 3B 130, K 91, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .373 → .283; ISO .303 → .218; BABIP .228 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 380 PAwOBA .479 → .386 (−93)K% 20.0% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷0.990	×1.200	—	—	24.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.26%	÷1.010	×0.690	—	×1.018	10.61%
HBP% /PA	0.79%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.76%
Singles /BIP	21.01%	÷1.040	×0.930	×0.975	×1.018	18.64%
Doubles /BIP	9.24%	÷0.969	×0.830	×0.975	×1.018	7.86%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.975	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	13.87%	÷0.955	×0.700	—	×1.018	10.34%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .479 → .386; ISO .385 → .303; BABIP .344 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 513 PAwOBA .299 → .230 (−69)K% 25.1% → 30.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.15%	÷0.976	×1.200	—	—	30.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.21%	÷1.053	×0.690	—	×1.033	4.88%
HBP% /PA	0.97%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.95%
Singles /BIP	21.19%	÷1.051	×0.930	×0.971	×1.033	18.82%
Doubles /BIP	4.18%	÷1.019	×0.830	×0.971	×1.033	3.41%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.971	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.27%	÷1.048	×0.700	—	×1.033	4.33%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .299 → .230; ISO .166 → .115; BABIP .265 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AASpringfield Cardinals · 391 PAwOBA .361 → .278 (−83)K% 26.3% → 32.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.34%	÷0.975	×1.220	—	—	32.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.72%	÷1.020	×0.690	—	×1.012	6.65%
HBP% /PA	0.51%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.44%
Singles /BIP	16.39%	÷1.003	×0.940	×0.950	×1.012	14.78%
Doubles /BIP	8.20%	÷1.107	×0.870	×0.950	×1.012	6.19%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.973	×0.920	×0.950	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.66%	÷0.990	×0.780	—	×1.012	8.50%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 101, 2B 121, 3B 95, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .361 → .278; ISO .282 → .214; BABIP .270 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 496 PAwOBA .315 → .250 (−65)K% 22.6% → 31.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.58%	÷1.014	×1.420	—	—	31.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.28%	÷0.991	×0.750	—	×1.012	7.88%
HBP% /PA	0.60%	—	×0.930	—	×1.012	0.57%
Singles /BIP	19.57%	÷1.048	×0.920	×0.950	×1.012	16.52%
Doubles /BIP	9.79%	÷1.047	×0.960	×0.950	×1.012	8.63%
Triples /BIP	0.31%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.950	×1.012	0.26%
Home runs /BIP	3.06%	÷0.912	×0.880	—	×1.012	2.99%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 110, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .315 → .250; ISO .146 → .123; BABIP .304 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 APeoria Chiefs · 156 PAwOBA .341 → .278 (−63)K% 19.9% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.87%	÷1.030	×1.360	—	—	26.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.26%	÷0.987	×0.690	—	×1.015	7.28%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.93%	÷1.041	×0.920	×0.996	×1.015	23.15%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷0.968	×0.830	×0.996	×1.015	7.22%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.948	×0.910	×0.996	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.78%	÷0.981	×0.800	—	×1.015	2.30%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 90, K 106, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .341 → .278; ISO .129 → .105; BABIP .349 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luken Baker (OGILVIE)	30	40	60	45	60	203/285/366	164	263	5	1	30%	10%	85	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brett Carroll 2013 · MLB	30	42→46	47→55	47→50	43	212/274/346	134	270	15	11	27%	6%	74	-0.5	204/269/335	131	275	16	10	30%	7%	70	-0.8	176/254/321	145	220	21	11	30%	8%	59	-0.9
✕Jon Knott 2008 · MLB	29	41→40	54→55	45→40	47	219/288/402	183	262	22	5	26%	8%	93	+0.8	219/284/378	159	273	19	6	26%	7%	86	+0.3	205/266/363	158	248	19	2	25%	6%	73	-0.6
✕Clint Coulter 2023 · AAA	30	42→43	50	43→40	41	220/282/374	154	273	18	5	26%	6%	84	+0.2	221/288/353	132	266	13	9	22%	6%	82	-0.0	201/273/314	113	238	10	9	20%	6%	64	-0.5
✕Valentino Pascucci 2010 · AAA	31	40→42	51→55	48→45	48	211/290/369	159	273	20	5	30%	9%	86	+0.3	208/288/370	162	288	20	3	33%	10%	86	+0.3	194/280/355	161	272	21	0	35%	10%	77	-0.2
✕O'Koyea Dickson 2019 · AAA	29	41→46	54→55	44→45	44	221/282/398	177	264	23	6	26%	7%	91	+0.6	231/288/379	148	269	16	9	20%	6%	88	+0.4	232/283/390	157	251	13	0	14%	5%	85	+0.0
✕Daniel Palka 2022 · MLB	30	40→43	51→55	50	48	210/281/366	155	262	19	7	28%	9%	82	+0.0	212/269/358	146	273	19	5	29%	7%	76	-0.4	200/255/340	139	255	19	2	29%	7%	62	-1.0
✕Marquez Smith 2015 · AAA	30	45→50	50→55	48→40	49	229/304/389	160	280	17	3	24%	9%	96	+1.0	226/296/349	123	298	11	7	26%	8%	83	+0.1	229/297/336	106	303	7	7	25%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Bryce Brentz 2019 · MLB	30	41→51	55→60	47→40	39	220/267/400	180	286	23	4	32%	6%	85	+0.2	206/270/376	170	308	22	5	38%	7%	81	-0.1	166/241/332	165	246	22	0	41%	8%	58	-1.0
✕Cody Decker 2016 · AAA	29	36→39	54→65	42→30	40	197/262/373	175	270	23	3	36%	7%	77	-0.3	188/245/339	151	280	19	3	38%	6%	63	-1.4	175/244/325	149	254	20	0	38%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Kyle Jensen 2018 · MLB	30	40→50	52→55	45→40	36	209/260/376	167	299	21	4	37%	6%	77	-0.3	200/250/321	121	311	14	7	38%	6%	59	-1.6	149/190/234	85	236	10	0	41%	5%	15	-1.7
✕Darick Hall 2024 · MLB	29	42→39	53→55	46→40	44	225/283/392	167	273	22	4	27%	7%	89	+0.5	205/265/322	117	270	14	4	29%	7%	66	-1.1	182/244/273	91	243	12	1	29%	7%	44	-1.6
●Reynaldo Rodriguez 2015 · AAA	29	41→45	52→55	44→50	43	219/266/392	173	254	19	6	23%	5%	82	+0.0	216/263/359	143	254	15	11	21%	6%	73	-0.6	229/273/404	176	255	22	11	20%	5%	86	+0.2
✕Matt Davidson 2021 · MLB	30	39→45	56→60	46→30	41	211/281/397	185	282	25	3	34%	7%	90	+0.6	229/296/434	205	291	29	3	31%	7%	104	+1.6	224/295/435	211	278	31	0	31%	7%	101	+0.9
●Mike Ford 2022 · MLB	30	35→45	53→55	46→30	47	195/271/363	168	230	23	3	27%	8%	78	-0.3	215/298/375	160	261	20	4	25%	9%	91	+0.6	219/305/386	167	257	22	2	24%	10%	95	+0.5
✕Brad Nelson 2013 · AAA	30	42→50	51→50	44→50	47	222/285/379	158	267	19	4	25%	8%	86	+0.3	211/266/340	129	256	15	4	24%	7%	70	-0.8	193/246/304	111	230	14	1	22%	6%	54	-1.3
✕Jeff Bailey 2010 · MLB	31	44→48	52→55	47→45	50	231/312/397	166	272	20	6	23%	9%	101	+1.4	215/289/345	130	268	13	6	24%	8%	80	-0.1	203/279/323	119	256	10	5	24%	7%	69	-0.8
✕Matt Clark 2017 · MLB	30	42→45	52→55	47→30	43	224/280/386	161	270	21	3	26%	6%	86	+0.3	225/279/388	163	283	20	4	27%	7%	86	+0.3	218/275/394	176	265	23	0	27%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Jack Mayfield 2021 · MLB	30	41→45	53→55	47→50	42	221/269/389	168	259	21	8	24%	5%	83	+0.1	220/266/371	151	262	17	11	23%	5%	77	-0.3	213/256/362	149	251	16	10	22%	4%	71	-0.5
✕Mac Williamson 2019 · MLB	29	42→51	54→55	44→45	42	222/283/393	170	280	23	6	29%	6%	89	+0.5	229/300/398	169	297	23	9	30%	8%	97	+1.1	210/289/373	163	272	25	7	32%	9%	88	+0.2
✕Yoshi Tsutsugo 2022 · MLB	30	42→41	54→50	42→30	53	222/307/398	176	265	22	3	25%	11%	99	+1.3	218/305/357	139	291	16	4	29%	11%	89	+0.5	205/298/323	118	281	14	2	30%	11%	78	-0.2