Luken Baker — OGILVIE

Luken Baker1B Reno Aces

Age 29 R/R 6'4" / 285 lbs AAA HR +4% Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION211 act + 140 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 14198vR -15

AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .286 / .364

PA140

HR5

K%31

BB%11

BABIP251

ISO170

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

3512.6%

xwOBA

390.296

POWER60

Barrel%

406.9

Avg EV

3287.8

Bat Spd

6472.8

EYE60

Chase%

6728.5%

SPEED45

Sprint

1025.1

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 83 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

169

-2

◀◀L

wOBA

406

182

◀◀L

ISO

242

046

◀◀L

BABIP

354

133

◀◀L

21.4%

29.6%

◀◀L

BB%

17.9%

14.8%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$0.6M	—	—	—
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	21	A	2 teams	—	184	169	43	9	0	3	13	46	0	0	0	254	308	361	669	107	328	25	7	296	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A	2 teams	—	184	163	52	11	0	4	19	35	0	0	0	319	390	460	850	141	381	19	10	376	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	496	452	82	24	1	10	39	155	3	1	1	181	251	305	556	124	249	31	8	246	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	496	439	107	32	1	10	52	112	3	1	1	244	328	390	717	146	304	23	10	322	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	391	360	68	13	0	22	25	140	2	0	0	189	245	408	654	219	228	36	6	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	391	347	86	20	0	26	38	103	2	0	0	248	326	530	856	282	270	26	10	368	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	513	478	81	10	0	15	23	163	5	0	0	169	215	285	500	115	215	32	4	223	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	513	464	106	14	0	21	37	129	5	0	0	228	292	394	687	166	265	25	7	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA	2 teams	—	479	420	112	23	0	33	52	124	3	0	0	267	352	557	909	290	296	26	11	386	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA	2 teams	—	479	400	123	25	0	35	72	107	3	0	0	307	417	632	1.049	325	336	22	15	448	201	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA	2 teams	—	501	440	82	18	1	27	50	157	2	1	0	186	272	416	688	230	208	31	10	298	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA	2 teams	—	501	416	94	19	1	34	74	121	2	1	0	226	346	522	867	296	222	24	15	371	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA	2 teams	—	450	402	76	20	0	15	42	140	2	0	0	189	269	351	620	162	243	31	9	275	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA	2 teams	—	450	379	85	24	0	18	65	114	2	0	0	224	341	430	771	206	267	25	14	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	29	AAA	ARI	—	211	187	30	8	1	2	20	76	2	0	1	160	249	246	495	86	252	36	9	231	35	-16	-0	+0	-4	+6	-1.4
YTD	29	AAA	ARI	—	211	179	39	11	2	3	28	59	2	0	1	218	330	352	682	134	303	28	13	310	95	-1	-0	+0	-4	+6	0.1
ROS	29	AAA	ARI	10%	140	123	24	6	0	5	15	44	1	0	0	194	286	364	650	170	257	31	11	296	84	-2	+0	-0	-3	+4	-0.1
ROS	29	MLB	ARI	10%	14	13	2	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	154	214	231	445	77	260	29	7	294	83	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	29	AAA	ARI	—	225	200	32	9	1	2	21	80	2	0	1	160	247	245	492	85	250	36	9	235	38	-16	-0	+0	-4	+6	-1.4
TOT	29	AAA	ARI	—	351	310	54	14	1	7	35	120	3	0	1	174	264	293	557	119	252	34	10	257	55	-18	-0	-0	-6	+10	-1.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	ARI	33%	380	334	67	16	1	13	40	116	3	1	1	201	292	371	663	171	261	31	11	297	85	-6	-0	-3	-7	+11	-0.6
2027	30	MLB	ARI	33%	124	109	21	5	0	4	13	38	1	0	0	193	285	349	633	156	263	31	10	295	84	-2	+0	-1	-2	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	327	282	56	13	1	8	41	94	1	1	0	199	302	337	639	138	262	29	13	298	86	-5	+0	-3	-28	+9	-2.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	561	112	26	2	16	81	187	2	2	0	200	303	339	641	139	264	29	12	298	86	-10	+0	-6	-56	+18	-5.4
Career	—			—	3534	3178	635	139	3	143	299	1085	21	3	2	200	273	380	653	181	248	31	8	286	77	-91	-0	-5	-63	+100	-6.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	117	26	1	26	55	200	4	1	0	200	273	381	654	181	249	31	8	286	77	-17	+0	-1	-12	+18	-1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	21	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	156	139	40	9	0	3	16	31	0	0	0	288	361	417	779	129	349	20	10	348	125	+4	+0	—	—	+4	0.9
2018	21	ROK	GCL Cardinals	—	28	24	12	2	0	1	3	4	0	0	0	500	556	708	1.264	208	550	14	11	532	265	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2019	22	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	496	439	107	32	1	10	52	112	3	1	1	244	328	390	717	146	304	23	10	322	105	+3	-0	—	—	+14	1.7
2021	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	391	347	86	20	0	26	38	103	2	0	0	248	326	530	856	282	270	26	10	368	140	+18	+0	—	—	+11	2.9
2022	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	513	464	106	14	0	21	37	129	5	0	0	228	292	394	687	166	265	25	7	303	90	-6	+0	—	—	+15	0.9
2023	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	99	86	18	3	0	2	13	31	0	0	0	209	313	314	627	105	302	31	13	291	81	-2	+0	-1	-9	+3	-0.9
2023	26	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	380	314	105	22	0	33	59	76	3	0	0	334	444	720	1.164	385	344	20	16	488	232	+57	+0	—	—	+11	6.9
2024	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	49	40	7	1	1	2	7	11	0	1	0	175	298	400	698	225	172	22	14	299	87	-1	+0	-1	-9	+1	-0.9
2024	27	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	452	376	87	18	0	32	67	110	2	0	0	231	351	535	885	303	228	24	15	379	148	+25	+0	—	—	+13	3.8
2025	28	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	41	34	8	3	0	0	7	10	0	0	0	235	366	324	689	88	333	24	17	323	106	+0	+0	-0	-8	+1	-0.7
2025	28	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	—	409	345	77	21	0	18	58	104	2	0	0	223	338	441	779	217	260	25	14	344	122	+10	+0	—	—	+12	2.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	189	160	33	7	1	4	27	52	0	1	0	206	321	338	658	131	274	28	14	300	88	-3	+0	-2	-26	+5	-2.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Daniel Vogelbachlast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,913 PA	7	1,913	81	0	220	342	411	-29	-16	4.4	4.4
	/162	664	28	0	220	342	411	-10.2	-5.6	1.5	pk7: 4
#2Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	8	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
	/162	664	23	9	238	296	413	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Travis Sniderlast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,971 PA	8	1,971	54	22	244	311	399	-21	-17	1.4	1.8
	/162	664	18	7	244	311	399	-7.1	-5.8	0.5	pk7: 2
#4John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	7	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
	/162	664	24	2	242	294	417	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	248	7	0	207	300	358	-4	-0	-0.2	-0.1
	/162	664	20	1	207	300	358	-11.9	-1.2	-0.6	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luken Baker (OGILVIE)	29	40	60	45	60	174/264/293	119	252	7	0	34%	10%	55	-1.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Chris Carter 2016 · MLB	29	37→47	62→65	42→45	50	212/306/435	223	266	31	4	33%	11%	109	+2.4	216/306/459	243	275	34	4	34%	10%	115	+2.8	203/306/465	262	256	38	1	37%	12%	115	+1.9
✕Mark Reynolds 2013 · MLB	29	38→48	59→65	40→50	55	213/321/428	215	268	28	5	31%	13%	113	+2.6	218/308/402	184	276	25	5	29%	11%	102	+1.8	232/318/389	157	302	19	2	28%	11%	99	+1.3
✕Shelley Duncan 2009 · MLB	29	41→45	58→60	46→45	48	224/292/423	199	257	27	7	25%	8%	100	+1.7	229/300/419	190	265	25	4	24%	8%	102	+1.8	226/300/413	187	259	24	2	23%	8%	97	+1.1
✕Gary Sánchez 2022 · MLB	29	35→45	61→65	44→45	51	207/302/424	217	238	31	2	29%	11%	105	+2.1	214/299/407	193	261	26	3	28%	9%	98	+1.6	224/310/436	212	260	32	1	27%	9%	109	+1.1
✕Eric Munson 2007 · MLB	29	42→43	56→60	43→40	46	227/289/415	187	251	25	3	22%	7%	96	+1.5	219/290/362	143	256	16	4	21%	8%	82	+0.5	209/286/342	134	246	14	1	21%	9%	74	-0.0
✕DJ Stewart 2022 · MLB	28	41→47	55→60	42→50	56	218/324/402	184	266	23	4	27%	12%	108	+2.3	225/328/415	190	281	26	6	28%	11%	113	+2.6	211/325/400	189	260	26	6	29%	12%	106	+1.0
✕Pedro Álvarez 2016 · MLB	29	44→46	60	47→45	49	242/315/454	213	284	30	6	27%	9%	117	+2.9	237/298/445	208	282	29	3	27%	8%	108	+2.3	228/284/431	204	268	30	1	27%	7%	96	+1.0
✕Mike Jacobs 2010 · MLB	29	45→53	59→65	45→40	47	243/303/449	206	281	27	2	25%	8%	111	+2.5	219/278/376	157	275	20	3	27%	8%	81	+0.4	210/273/353	143	272	19	2	30%	8%	70	-0.2
●Matt Davidson 2020 · MLB	29	39→44	57→60	45→30	40	214/282/405	191	288	26	2	35%	7%	91	+1.1	229/295/441	212	296	30	3	33%	7%	106	+2.2	234/307/465	232	293	35	0	32%	7%	114	+1.7
●Reynaldo Rodriguez 2015 · AAA	29	42→47	57→60	44→50	41	229/274/428	199	264	24	6	24%	5%	93	+1.3	225/272/381	156	263	17	11	21%	6%	79	+0.3	250/295/458	208	274	27	11	20%	6%	108	+1.3
●Mark Trumbo 2015 · MLB	29	45→52	59→65	41→45	46	242/300/447	205	284	28	5	26%	8%	109	+2.4	249/304/455	206	292	28	3	25%	7%	113	+2.6	245/301/449	204	284	29	1	25%	7%	108	+2.3
✕Andrew Brown 2014 · MLB	29	44→47	53→55	46→40	44	227/291/404	177	300	21	5	31%	8%	94	+1.3	227/290/403	176	288	22	5	28%	7%	93	+1.3	214/279/394	179	263	25	2	28%	7%	84	+0.5
✕Mike Bianucci 2015 · AAA	29	44→40	59→65	46→40	40	242/283/449	207	277	29	4	25%	5%	103	+1.9	243/279/450	207	290	29	7	27%	4%	102	+1.8	237/264/473	236	269	37	2	28%	3%	99	+0.6
✕Jordan Luplow 2023 · MLB	29	36→46	60→65	44→50	53	208/301/422	214	231	29	8	26%	11%	104	+2.0	220/299/392	172	259	22	13	24%	9%	95	+1.4	212/293/370	158	249	20	15	24%	9%	84	+0.3
✕Donnie Murphy 2013 · MLB	30	43→40	58→65	48→45	44	232/297/443	211	273	26	5	26%	7%	107	+2.2	209/274/366	157	263	19	6	28%	6%	77	+0.1	192/258/327	135	242	17	4	28%	6%	58	-0.6
✕Paul DeJong 2023 · MLB	29	34→44	55→60	44→45	45	196/270/372	176	234	24	6	29%	8%	77	+0.1	221/277/400	179	285	25	6	31%	6%	88	+0.9	227/278/404	177	297	25	5	32%	5%	87	+0.6
●Renato Núñez 2021 · MLB	27	46→51	56→60	44→30	46	243/308/431	189	288	25	3	26%	8%	108	+2.3	244/314/463	219	292	30	5	27%	7%	120	+3.1	232/307/469	237	267	35	1	28%	7%	116	+2.1
●Jorge Soler 2022 · MLB	30	43→53	62→70	45	53	237/327/468	231	271	31	2	26%	11%	126	+3.5	239/328/461	222	281	29	2	26%	11%	124	+3.4	241/335/470	229	282	30	1	25%	11%	125	+2.8
✕Nate Gold 2009 · AAA	29	42→45	54→60	41→30	44	225/281/399	175	271	22	2	27%	7%	89	+0.9	221/285/367	146	277	16	6	25%	7%	82	+0.5	201/289/329	127	234	10	0	18%	9%	76	+0.0
✕Tyler Moore 2014 · MLB	27	46→48	60→65	51→40	41	248/297/462	214	305	28	5	29%	6%	112	+2.6	222/283/375	153	283	18	3	27%	7%	82	+0.5	208/253/359	151	261	17	0	27%	5%	62	-0.3