Mac Williamson
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 27 | AAASF | 382 | .244/.302/.423 | 14 | 4 | 55 | — | .193/.241/.330 | |
| 2017 | 27 | MLBSF | 73 | .235/.288/.397 | 3 | 1 | 92 | -0.7 | ||
| 2018 | 28 | AAASF | 215 | .269/.376/.533 | 13 | 1 | 107 | — | .232/.315/.432 | |
| 2018 | 28 | MLBSF | 105 | .213/.295/.383 | 4 | 1 | 98 | -0.0 | ||
| 2019 | 29 | AAASEA | 106 | .367/.452/.722 | 9 | 1 | 141 | — | .284/.346/.516 | |
| 2019 | 29 | MLBSEA | 144 | .156/.250/.258 | 4 | 2 | 49 | -0.9 | ||
| 2020 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 22 | ROK | AZL Giants | — | 19 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 263 | 529 | 793 | 353 | 100 | 26 | 11 | 340 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 599 | 520 | 152 | 31 | 2 | 25 | 51 | 132 | 21 | 10 | 1 | 292 | 377 | 504 | 881 | 212 | 345 | 22 | 9 | 386 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 100 | 85 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 318 | 420 | 506 | 926 | 188 | 353 | 14 | 13 | 412 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | — | 34 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 242 | 281 | 524 | 62 | 280 | 24 | 0 | 229 | 43 | -2 | +0 | -2 | -7 | +1 | -1.0 |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 227 | 189 | 47 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 249 | 372 | 439 | 811 | 190 | 307 | 24 | 11 | 364 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 290 | 259 | 76 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 53 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 293 | 367 | 429 | 795 | 135 | 351 | 18 | 9 | 356 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 86 | 73 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 370 | 452 | 493 | 946 | 123 | 403 | 13 | 13 | 414 | 166 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | — | 127 | 112 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 223 | 315 | 411 | 726 | 187 | 268 | 28 | 10 | 326 | 113 | +2 | -0 | +1 | -4 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 226 | 208 | 56 | 14 | 0 | 11 | 12 | 53 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 269 | 318 | 495 | 814 | 226 | 306 | 23 | 5 | 352 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | — | 73 | 68 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 235 | 288 | 397 | 685 | 162 | 325 | 34 | 7 | 305 | 92 | -1 | -0 | -3 | -5 | +2 | -0.7 |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 382 | 352 | 86 | 21 | 0 | 14 | 25 | 100 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 244 | 302 | 423 | 725 | 179 | 301 | 26 | 7 | 321 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | — | 105 | 94 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 213 | 295 | 383 | 678 | 170 | 254 | 26 | 10 | 305 | 98 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -3 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 215 | 182 | 49 | 7 | 1 | 13 | 23 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 269 | 376 | 533 | 909 | 264 | 283 | 20 | 11 | 395 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | — | 144 | 128 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 44 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 156 | 250 | 258 | 508 | 102 | 200 | 31 | 10 | 239 | 49 | -9 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +3 | -0.9 |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 106 | 90 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 367 | 452 | 722 | 1.174 | 356 | 429 | 25 | 12 | 492 | 141 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 483 | 434 | 88 | 10 | 1 | 17 | 43 | 139 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 203 | 282 | 348 | 630 | 145 | 254 | 29 | 9 | 285 | 79 | -12 | -1 | -2 | -22 | +10 | -2.7 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Giants | — | 19 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 158 | 278 | 436 | 167 | 76 | 37 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 599 | 541 | 134 | 26 | 2 | 25 | 32 | 179 | 21 | 10 | 1 | 248 | 315 | 442 | 757 | 194 | 310 | 30 | 5 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 100 | 89 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 281 | 360 | 449 | 809 | 169 | 328 | 18 | 9 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB MLE | San Francisco Giants | — | 34 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 242 | 281 | 524 | 62 | 280 | 24 | 0 | 232 | 43 | -2 | +0 | -2 | -7 | +1 | -1.0 |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 227 | 196 | 41 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 68 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 314 | 352 | 666 | 143 | 284 | 30 | 8 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 290 | 269 | 74 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 64 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 275 | 325 | 398 | 723 | 123 | 344 | 22 | 5 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB MLE | San Francisco Giants | — | 127 | 112 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 223 | 315 | 411 | 726 | 187 | 268 | 28 | 10 | 335 | 113 | +2 | -0 | +1 | -4 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 226 | 214 | 48 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 66 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 224 | 256 | 388 | 643 | 164 | 275 | 29 | 3 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB MLE | San Francisco Giants | — | 73 | 69 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 232 | 274 | 391 | 665 | 159 | 325 | 34 | 5 | 304 | 92 | -1 | -0 | -3 | -5 | +2 | -0.7 |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 382 | 358 | 69 | 16 | 0 | 11 | 19 | 130 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 193 | 241 | 330 | 571 | 137 | 265 | 34 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB MLE | San Francisco Giants | — | 105 | 94 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 213 | 295 | 383 | 678 | 170 | 254 | 26 | 10 | 312 | 98 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -3 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 215 | 190 | 44 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 53 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 232 | 315 | 432 | 746 | 200 | 262 | 25 | 7 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | — | 144 | 128 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 44 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 156 | 250 | 258 | 508 | 102 | 200 | 31 | 10 | 241 | 49 | -9 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +3 | -0.9 |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 106 | 95 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 284 | 346 | 516 | 862 | 232 | 360 | 33 | 8 | 376 | 141 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Giants | — | 19 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 158 | 278 | 436 | 167 | 100 | 37 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | ROK RAW | AZL Giants | — | 19 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 263 | 529 | 793 | 353 | 100 | 26 | 11 | 340 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 599 | 541 | 134 | 26 | 2 | 25 | 32 | 179 | 21 | 10 | 1 | 248 | 315 | 442 | 757 | 194 | 319 | 30 | 5 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ RAW | San Jose Giants | — | 599 | 520 | 152 | 31 | 2 | 25 | 51 | 132 | 21 | 10 | 1 | 292 | 377 | 504 | 881 | 212 | 345 | 22 | 9 | 386 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 100 | 89 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 281 | 360 | 449 | 809 | 169 | 324 | 18 | 9 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ RAW | San Jose Giants | — | 100 | 85 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 318 | 420 | 506 | 926 | 188 | 353 | 14 | 13 | 412 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 637 | 576 | 142 | 28 | 3 | 13 | 39 | 162 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 247 | 313 | 373 | 687 | 127 | 318 | 25 | 6 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 637 | 553 | 157 | 31 | 3 | 15 | 62 | 127 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 284 | 373 | 432 | 806 | 148 | 341 | 20 | 10 | 360 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 353 | 326 | 73 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 19 | 101 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 224 | 277 | 396 | 673 | 172 | 276 | 29 | 5 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 353 | 320 | 81 | 17 | 0 | 17 | 25 | 88 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 253 | 317 | 466 | 783 | 213 | 294 | 25 | 7 | 342 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 455 | 427 | 85 | 18 | 0 | 14 | 23 | 155 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 199 | 247 | 340 | 586 | 141 | 274 | 34 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 455 | 420 | 102 | 23 | 0 | 17 | 30 | 125 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 243 | 300 | 419 | 719 | 176 | 305 | 27 | 7 | 318 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 320 | 284 | 65 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 26 | 80 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 229 | 311 | 430 | 741 | 201 | 262 | 25 | 8 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 320 | 276 | 69 | 11 | 1 | 17 | 34 | 71 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 250 | 349 | 482 | 831 | 232 | 274 | 22 | 11 | 365 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 250 | 223 | 48 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 22 | 79 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 215 | 294 | 386 | 680 | 170 | 274 | 32 | 9 | 298 | 88 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 250 | 218 | 53 | 6 | 0 | 13 | 27 | 71 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 243 | 335 | 450 | 784 | 206 | 294 | 28 | 11 | 346 | 88 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2012 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Giants | — | 19 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 158 | 278 | 436 | 167 | 76 | 37 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 599 | 541 | 134 | 26 | 2 | 25 | 32 | 179 | 21 | 10 | 1 | 248 | 315 | 442 | 757 | 194 | 310 | 30 | 5 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 100 | 89 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 281 | 360 | 449 | 809 | 169 | 328 | 18 | 9 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 637 | 576 | 142 | 28 | 3 | 13 | 39 | 162 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 247 | 313 | 373 | 687 | 127 | 315 | 25 | 6 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 353 | 326 | 73 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 19 | 101 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 224 | 277 | 396 | 673 | 172 | 272 | 29 | 5 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 455 | 425 | 85 | 18 | 0 | 14 | 23 | 155 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 200 | 247 | 341 | 588 | 141 | 275 | 34 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 320 | 283 | 65 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 26 | 80 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 230 | 311 | 431 | 742 | 201 | 259 | 25 | 8 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 250 | 223 | 48 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 22 | 79 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 215 | 294 | 386 | 680 | 170 | 268 | 32 | 9 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 483 | 434 | 88 | 10 | 1 | 17 | 43 | 139 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 203 | 282 | 348 | 630 | 145 | 254 | 29 | 9 | 285 | 92 | -12 | -1 | -2 | -22 | +10 | -2.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 118 | 13 | 1 | 23 | 58 | 187 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 202 | 282 | 346 | 628 | 144 | 253 | 29 | 9 | 285 | 92 | -16 | -1 | -3 | -29 | +14 | -3.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2733 | 2484 | 574 | 107 | 6 | 96 | 171 | 781 | 60 | 33 | 11 | 231 | 297 | 395 | 691 | 164 | 294 | 29 | 6 | 304 | 92 | -12 | -1 | -2 | -22 | +10 | -2.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 136 | 25 | 1 | 23 | 41 | 186 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 230 | 296 | 393 | 688 | 162 | 293 | 29 | 6 | 304 | 92 | -16 | -1 | -3 | -29 | +14 | -3.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAATacoma Rainiers · 106 PAwOBA .485 → .376 (−109)K% 25.5% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.47% | ÷0.990 | ×1.290 | — | — | 33.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.32% | ÷1.039 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.982 | 7.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.982 | 0.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.16% | ÷0.985 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.982 | 27.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.94% | ÷0.998 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.982 | 6.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.073 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.049 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.982 | 10.43% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 115, K 98, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .485 → .376; ISO .356 → .258; BABIP .429 → .360. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAASacramento River Cats · 215 PAwOBA .386 → .327 (−59)K% 20.5% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.47% | ÷1.071 | ×1.290 | — | — | 24.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.23% | ÷1.043 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 6.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.72% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 3.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.29% | ÷0.963 | ×0.900 | ×1.035 | ×0.992 | 19.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.07% | ÷0.910 | ×0.810 | ×1.035 | ×0.992 | 4.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.72% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.035 | ×0.992 | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.42% | ÷0.998 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 7.31% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 93, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 114, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .386 → .327; ISO .264 → .211; BABIP .283 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAASacramento River Cats · 382 PAwOBA .313 → .250 (−63)K% 26.2% → 34.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.18% | ÷0.989 | ×1.290 | — | — | 34.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.54% | ÷0.952 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 4.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.24% | ÷1.027 | ×0.900 | ×1.024 | ×1.003 | 18.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.975 | ×0.810 | ×1.024 | ×1.003 | 7.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.920 | ×0.810 | ×1.024 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷0.889 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 4.89% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 105, 2B 95, 3B 84, K 98, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .313 → .250; ISO .179 → .142; BABIP .301 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAASacramento River Cats · 226 PAwOBA .341 → .280 (−61)K% 23.5% → 29.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.45% | ÷1.034 | ×1.290 | — | — | 29.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.98% | ÷1.052 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 2.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.33% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 1.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.960 | ×0.900 | ×0.995 | ×1.018 | 18.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.03% | ÷0.973 | ×0.810 | ×0.995 | ×1.018 | 7.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.995 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.10% | ÷1.082 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 5.21% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 107, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .341 → .280; ISO .226 → .168; BABIP .306 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 290 PAwOBA .343 → .317 (−26)K% 18.3% → 22.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.28% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.24% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 5.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.72% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.73% | ÷1.013 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 25.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.77% | ÷0.998 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 7.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.97% | ÷1.025 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 0.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.43% | ÷0.860 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.20% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 105, K 101, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .343 → .317; ISO .135 → .123; BABIP .351 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAASacramento River Cats · 227 PAwOBA .355 → .304 (−51)K% 24.2% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.23% | ÷1.047 | ×1.290 | — | — | 29.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.01% | ÷0.960 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 8.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.85% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 4.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.15% | ÷1.003 | ×0.900 | ×1.049 | ×1.033 | 19.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.96% | ÷1.024 | ×0.810 | ×1.049 | ×1.033 | 7.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.810 | ×1.049 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.97% | ÷0.982 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 4.90% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 101, 2B 105, 3B 85, K 109, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.
Result: wOBA .355 → .304; ISO .190 → .153; BABIP .307 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+San Jose Giants · 100 PAwOBA .401 → .352 (−49)K% 14.0% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.00% | ÷1.026 | ×1.340 | — | — | 18.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.00% | ÷1.009 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 9.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 1.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.94% | ÷0.996 | ×0.910 | ×1.049 | ×0.988 | 22.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.86% | ÷0.953 | ×0.820 | ×1.049 | ×0.988 | 8.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.979 | ×0.760 | ×1.049 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.23% | ÷0.931 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 4.12% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 96, K 105, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.
Result: wOBA .401 → .352; ISO .188 → .177; BABIP .353 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+San Jose Giants · 599 PAwOBA .377 → .324 (−53)K% 22.0% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.04% | ÷0.992 | ×1.340 | — | — | 29.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.01% | ÷1.063 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 5.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.51% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 2.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.23% | ÷1.032 | ×0.910 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 21.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.99% | ÷0.953 | ×0.820 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 7.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 0.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.44% | ÷0.866 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 6.83% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 106, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 98, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .377 → .324; ISO .212 → .203; BABIP .345 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .