Ryan Mountcastle

1B Baltimore Orioles

Age 30 R/R 6'3" / 230 lbs MLB HR +9% Svc 6.610 · Ctrl thru 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBIL-6040-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	27	MLBBAL	507	.271/.311/.425	13	3	101	0.0
2025	28	AAABAL	37	.387/.486/.806	3	0	180	—	.303/.378/.576
2025	28	MLBBAL	357	.250/.291/.367	7	3	79	-1.0
2026	29	MLBBAL	15	.286/.333/.357	0	0	95	-0.0
2027PROJ	30	MLBBAL	99	.260/.305/.416	3	1	97	0.1
2028PROJ	31	MLBBAL	154	.255/.299/.404	4	1	92	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.9 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.610First FA2028Options2

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Bat Spd79

Avg EV74

xwOBA65

Barrel%61

Speed23

CompsJoey Meneses (age 29) · Chris Heisey (age 29) · Chad Pinder (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 10097vR 88

AVG/OBP/SLG.260 / .305 / .416

PA99

HR3

K%24

BB%5

BABIP319

ISO151

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

xAVG

660.264

POWER55

Barrel%

619.8

Avg EV

7490.7

Bat Spd

7974.4

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

2326.2

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 864 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

233

631

—

wRC+

104

◀L

wOBA

323

300

◀L

ISO

110

150

▶▶R

BABIP

355

315

◀L

21.0%

25.8%

◀◀L

BB%

5.6%

4.6%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2020

Service 6.610 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.1	$0.4M	-$0.7M
Totals		$1M		$0.4M	-$0.7M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$1.1M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$7.5M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	18	ROK	GCL Orioles	—	175	163	51	7	0	3	9	36	1	10	4	313	353	411	764	98	381	21	5	339	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	489	455	128	28	4	10	25	95	3	5	4	281	323	426	749	145	331	19	5	329	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	159	153	34	13	0	3	3	35	1	0	0	222	242	366	608	144	265	22	2	264	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+	Frederick Keys	—	379	360	113	35	1	15	14	61	3	8	2	314	345	542	886	228	343	16	4	385	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	87	82	20	4	0	3	4	19	1	2	0	244	287	402	690	159	283	22	5	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	428	394	117	19	4	13	26	79	3	2	0	297	345	464	810	168	339	18	6	354	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	553	520	162	35	1	25	24	130	4	2	1	312	347	527	874	215	370	24	4	379	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	140	126	42	5	0	5	11	30	1	0	1	333	391	492	883	159	398	21	8	387	142	+7	-0	-1	-2	+3	0.7
2021	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	586	534	136	23	1	33	41	161	4	4	3	255	313	487	799	232	297	27	7	346	111	+8	-0	-12	-10	+13	-0.3
2022	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	609	555	139	28	1	22	43	154	4	4	1	250	309	423	732	173	303	25	7	322	100	+0	+0	-2	-11	+13	0.0
2023	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	470	423	114	21	1	18	37	107	3	3	1	270	333	452	784	182	315	23	8	343	114	+8	+0	-3	-9	+10	0.6
2023	26	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	58	54	12	1	0	1	4	17	0	0	0	222	276	296	572	74	306	29	7	262	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	507	473	128	30	2	13	27	114	1	3	0	271	311	425	736	154	327	22	5	322	101	+0	+1	-3	-9	+11	0.0
2025	28	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	357	332	83	18	0	7	15	98	4	3	0	250	291	367	658	117	326	27	4	290	79	-9	+1	-2	-7	+8	-1.0
2025	28	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	37	31	12	4	0	3	5	5	1	0	0	387	486	806	1.293	419	391	14	14	544	180	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	15	14	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	286	333	357	690	71	333	13	7	313	95	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2684	2457	646	126	5	98	175	666	17	17	6	263	316	438	754	175	317	25	7	330	109	+30	+1	-24	-49	+58	1.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Orioles	—	175	166	39	5	0	2	6	52	1	10	4	235	266	301	567	66	314	30	3	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	489	464	112	23	3	9	16	127	3	5	4	241	271	362	633	121	302	26	3	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	159	154	29	10	0	2	2	44	1	0	0	188	204	292	496	104	241	28	1	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	—	379	366	97	30	1	11	8	87	3	8	2	265	286	443	729	178	314	23	2	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	428	402	109	17	4	10	18	101	3	2	0	271	307	408	715	137	328	24	4	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	553	529	140	28	1	24	15	160	4	2	1	265	290	457	748	193	327	29	3	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	140	126	42	5	0	5	11	30	1	0	1	333	391	492	883	159	398	21	8	379	142	+7	-0	-1	-2	+3	0.7
2021	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	586	536	132	23	1	30	39	161	4	4	3	246	302	461	763	215	297	27	7	332	111	+8	-0	-12	-10	+13	-0.3
2022	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	609	556	136	26	1	22	42	154	4	4	1	245	302	414	716	169	303	25	7	316	100	+0	+0	-2	-11	+13	0.0
2023	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	470	424	112	20	1	18	36	107	3	3	1	264	326	443	770	179	315	23	8	337	114	+8	+0	-3	-9	+10	0.6
2023	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	58	55	11	1	0	1	3	21	0	0	0	200	241	273	514	73	279	36	5	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	507	473	125	28	2	13	27	114	1	3	0	264	305	414	720	150	327	22	5	317	101	+0	+1	-3	-9	+11	0.0
2025	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	357	332	82	18	0	7	15	98	4	3	0	247	288	364	652	117	326	27	4	285	79	-9	+1	-2	-7	+8	-1.0
2025	28	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	37	33	10	3	0	2	3	6	1	0	0	303	378	576	954	273	344	16	8	434	180	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	15	14	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	286	333	357	690	71	333	13	7	309	95	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Orioles	—	175	166	39	5	0	2	6	52	1	10	4	235	266	301	567	66	325	30	3	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	GCL Orioles	—	175	163	51	7	0	3	9	36	1	10	4	313	353	411	764	98	381	21	5	339	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	489	464	112	23	3	9	16	127	3	5	4	241	271	362	633	121	308	26	3	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	489	455	128	28	4	10	25	95	3	5	4	281	323	426	749	145	331	19	5	329	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	625	604	146	47	1	15	12	152	5	10	2	242	262	397	660	156	297	24	2	281	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	625	595	167	52	1	21	21	115	5	10	2	281	311	477	788	197	315	18	3	343	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	428	402	109	17	4	10	18	101	3	2	0	271	307	408	715	137	334	24	4	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	—	428	394	117	19	4	13	26	79	3	2	0	297	345	464	810	168	339	18	6	354	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	553	529	140	28	1	24	15	160	4	2	1	265	290	457	748	193	331	29	3	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	—	553	520	162	35	1	25	24	130	4	2	1	312	347	527	874	215	370	24	4	379	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	140	126	42	5	0	5	11	30	1	0	1	333	391	492	883	159	398	21	8	379	142	+7	-0	-1	-2	+3	0.7
2020	23	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	140	126	42	5	0	5	11	30	1	0	1	333	391	492	883	159	398	21	8	387	142	+7	-0	-1	-2	+3	0.7
2021	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	586	536	132	23	1	30	39	161	4	4	3	246	302	461	763	215	290	27	7	332	111	+8	-0	-12	-10	+13	-0.3
2021	24	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	586	534	136	23	1	33	41	161	4	4	3	255	313	487	799	232	297	27	7	346	111	+8	-0	-12	-10	+13	-0.3
2022	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	609	556	136	26	1	22	42	154	4	4	1	245	302	414	716	169	295	25	7	316	100	+0	+0	-2	-11	+13	0.0
2022	25	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	609	555	139	28	1	22	43	154	4	4	1	250	309	423	732	173	303	25	7	322	100	+0	+0	-2	-11	+13	0.0
2023	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	528	479	123	21	1	19	39	128	3	3	1	257	317	424	740	167	307	24	7	322	104	+3	+0	-3	-9	+11	0.2
2023	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	528	477	126	22	1	19	41	124	3	3	1	264	326	434	760	170	314	23	8	334	104	+3	+0	-3	-9	+11	0.2
2024	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	507	473	125	28	2	13	27	114	1	3	0	264	305	414	720	150	318	22	5	317	101	+0	+1	-3	-9	+11	0.0
2024	27	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	507	473	128	30	2	13	27	114	1	3	0	271	311	425	736	154	327	22	5	322	101	+0	+1	-3	-9	+11	0.0
2025	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	394	365	92	21	0	9	18	104	5	3	0	252	296	384	680	132	322	26	5	299	89	-5	+1	-2	-7	+9	-0.5
2025	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	394	363	95	22	0	10	20	103	5	3	0	262	309	405	714	143	332	26	5	314	89	-5	+1	-2	-7	+9	-0.5
2026	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	15	14	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	286	333	357	690	71	333	13	7	309	95	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
2026	29	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	15	14	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	286	333	357	690	71	333	13	7	313	95	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Orioles	—	175	166	39	5	0	2	6	52	1	10	4	235	266	301	567	66	314	30	3	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	489	467	112	23	3	9	16	127	3	5	4	240	271	360	631	120	302	26	3	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	625	603	146	47	1	15	12	152	5	10	2	242	262	398	660	156	292	24	2	281	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	428	404	109	17	4	10	18	101	3	2	0	270	307	406	713	136	328	24	4	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	553	529	140	28	1	24	15	160	4	2	1	265	290	457	748	193	327	29	3	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	140	127	42	5	0	5	11	30	1	0	1	331	391	488	879	157	398	21	8	379	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	586	538	132	23	1	30	39	161	4	4	3	245	302	459	761	214	297	27	7	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	609	558	136	26	1	22	42	154	4	4	1	244	302	412	715	168	303	25	7	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	528	481	123	21	1	19	39	128	3	3	1	256	317	422	739	166	311	24	7	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	507	474	125	28	2	13	27	114	1	3	0	264	305	414	719	150	327	22	5	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	394	368	92	21	0	9	18	104	5	3	0	250	296	380	677	130	328	26	5	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	15	14	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	286	333	357	690	71	333	13	7	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	507	474	125	28	2	13	27	114	1	3	0	264	305	414	719	150	327	22	5	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	394	368	92	21	0	9	18	104	5	3	0	250	296	380	677	130	328	26	5	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	15	14	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	286	333	357	690	71	333	13	7	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	BAL	100%	237	221	57	12	1	7	12	58	2	3	1	256	301	406	707	150	315	24	5	312	97	-1	+0	+2	-4	+5	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	BAL	100%	99	93	24	5	0	3	5	24	1	1	0	260	305	416	721	156	319	24	5	318	97	-0	+0	+1	-2	+2	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	BAL	100%	154	144	36	8	0	4	8	38	1	1	0	250	295	394	689	144	310	25	5	305	92	-1	+0	-2	-3	+3	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	BAL	100%	154	144	36	8	0	4	8	38	1	1	0	255	299	404	703	149	315	25	5	310	92	-1	+0	-2	-3	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2838	2601	682	134	5	102	183	704	18	18	6	262	315	435	750	173	317	25	6	329	94	+29	+1	-25	-51	+61	1.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	596	156	31	1	23	42	161	4	4	1	262	315	433	748	171	317	25	6	329	94	+7	+0	-6	-12	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	5302	4951	1260	258	14	165	257	1347	36	48	17	254	296	412	708	158	313	25	5	308	94	+29	+1	-25	-53	+64	1.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	607	155	32	2	20	32	165	4	6	2	255	297	414	711	158	315	25	5	308	94	+6	+0	-5	-12	+14	0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 37 PAwOBA .529 → .434 (−95)K% 13.5% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.51%	÷0.967	×1.200	—	—	16.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.51%	÷1.063	×0.690	—	×0.992	8.70%
HBP% /PA	2.70%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	2.52%
Singles /BIP	19.23%	÷0.959	×0.930	—	×0.992	18.49%
Doubles /BIP	15.38%	÷0.978	×0.830	—	×0.992	12.96%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.54%	÷0.945	×0.700	—	×0.992	8.48%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 92, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .529 → .434; ISO .419 → .330; BABIP .391 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAANorfolk Tides · 58 PAwOBA .255 → .205 (−50)K% 29.3% → 35.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.31%	÷0.980	×1.200	—	—	35.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.90%	÷0.948	×0.690	—	×1.018	5.11%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.03%	÷1.019	×0.930	—	×1.018	25.12%
Doubles /BIP	2.70%	÷1.015	×0.830	—	×1.018	2.25%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.70%	÷0.995	×0.700	—	×1.018	1.94%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 96, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .255 → .205; ISO .074 → .051; BABIP .306 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAANorfolk Tides · 553 PAwOBA .371 → .318 (−53)K% 23.5% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.51%	÷0.973	×1.200	—	—	28.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.16%	÷1.103	×0.690	—	×1.050	2.73%
HBP% /PA	0.72%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.71%
Singles /BIP	25.90%	÷1.033	×0.930	×0.950	×1.050	23.27%
Doubles /BIP	8.97%	÷0.990	×0.830	×0.950	×1.050	7.51%
Triples /BIP	0.26%	÷0.954	×0.970	×0.950	×1.050	0.26%
Home runs /BIP	6.41%	÷0.889	×0.840	—	×1.050	6.36%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 107, 2B 98, 3B 91, K 95, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .371 → .318; ISO .215 → .195; BABIP .370 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AABowie Baysox · 428 PAwOBA .347 → .309 (−38)K% 18.5% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.46%	÷0.960	×1.220	—	—	23.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.61%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×1.050	4.21%
HBP% /PA	0.70%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.63%
Singles /BIP	25.71%	÷0.996	×0.970	×0.968	×1.050	25.45%
Doubles /BIP	6.03%	÷0.971	×0.860	×0.968	×1.050	5.43%
Triples /BIP	1.27%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.968	×1.050	1.36%
Home runs /BIP	4.13%	÷1.060	×0.780	—	×1.050	3.19%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 92, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .347 → .309; ISO .168 → .138; BABIP .339 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Frederick Keys · 379 PAwOBA .374 → .308 (−66)K% 16.1% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.09%	÷0.993	×1.420	—	—	23.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.17%	÷1.010	×0.630	—	×1.042	2.06%
HBP% /PA	0.79%	—	×0.860	—	×1.042	0.71%
Singles /BIP	20.74%	÷1.006	×0.940	×0.964	×1.042	19.45%
Doubles /BIP	11.71%	÷0.914	×0.830	×0.964	×1.042	10.68%
Triples /BIP	0.33%	÷0.900	×0.800	×0.964	×1.042	0.30%
Home runs /BIP	5.02%	÷1.238	×0.900	—	×1.042	3.80%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 148, 1B 101, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .374 → .308; ISO .228 → .177; BABIP .343 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AABowie Baysox · 159 PAwOBA .260 → .218 (−42)K% 22.0% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.01%	÷0.970	×1.220	—	—	27.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	1.89%	÷1.061	×0.700	—	×1.050	1.31%
HBP% /PA	0.63%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.56%
Singles /BIP	15.25%	÷0.993	×0.970	×0.956	×1.050	14.95%
Doubles /BIP	11.02%	÷1.043	×0.860	×0.956	×1.050	9.11%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.016	×0.950	×0.956	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.54%	÷0.998	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.09%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 103, K 94, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.

Result: wOBA .260 → .218; ISO .144 → .113; BABIP .265 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 489 PAwOBA .324 → .272 (−51)K% 19.4% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.43%	÷1.001	×1.340	—	—	26.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.11%	÷1.079	×0.660	—	×1.045	3.27%
HBP% /PA	0.61%	—	×0.770	—	×1.045	0.49%
Singles /BIP	23.89%	÷1.015	×0.920	×0.993	×1.045	22.46%
Doubles /BIP	7.78%	÷1.008	×0.820	×0.993	×1.045	6.56%
Triples /BIP	1.11%	÷1.150	×0.940	×0.993	×1.045	0.94%
Home runs /BIP	2.78%	÷0.928	×0.820	—	×1.045	2.57%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 100, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .324 → .272; ISO .145 → .122; BABIP .331 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ROKGCL Orioles · 175 PAwOBA .334 → .248 (−86)K% 20.6% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.57%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	29.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.14%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.022	3.26%
HBP% /PA	0.57%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.42%
Singles /BIP	32.28%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.007	×1.022	27.26%
Doubles /BIP	5.51%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.007	×1.022	4.09%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.007	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.36%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	1.88%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .334 → .248; ISO .098 → .070; BABIP .381 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Marshall'81-'91 * career totals — 10 seasons, 3,908 PA	5.9	3,908	148	26	268*	321*	481*	-48	-39	9.3	9.4
/162	664	25	4	-8.2	-6.6	1.6	pk7: 9
#2Mike Ivie'71-'83 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,962 PA	4.5	2,962	81	22	262*	319*	451*	-46	-22	5.8	6.7
/162	664	18	5	-10.2	-4.9	1.3	pk7: 8
#3Mitch Morelandlast yr '21 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,536 PA	6.8	4,536	186	11	251	318	446	-81	-56	5.9	6.1
/162	664	27	2	-11.9	-8.1	0.9	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.4	2,933	105	19	262	311	434	-52	-43	5.5	5.5
/162	664	24	4	-11.9	-9.8	1.2	pk7: 5
#4Xavier Nadylast yr '12 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,169 PA	4.8	3,169	101	19	270	324	432	-41	-55	3.9	5.0
/162	664	21	4	-8.5	-11.5	0.8	pk7: 6
#5Greg Walker'82-'90 * career totals — 7 seasons, 3,177 PA	4.8	3,177	113	19	257*	326*	467*	-59	-36	4.1	5.0
/162	664	24	4	-12.4	-7.5	0.9	pk7: 6
#6Matt Adamslast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,574 PA	3.9	2,574	118	4	259	307	467	-46	-47	2.3	2.7
/162	664	30	1	-11.9	-12.0	0.6	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ryan Mountcastle (OGILVIE)	30	55	55	50	35	253/298/402	149	315	3	1	24%	5%	97	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Joey Meneses 2021 · AAA	29	51→56	52→55	48→40	42	259/301/421	163	321	20	6	26%	6%	102	+1.5	251/292/415	164	303	19	3	23%	5%	97	+1.1	261/304/416	156	312	18	1	22%	5%	102	+1.4
✕Chris Heisey 2014 · MLB	29	48→53	50→55	51→55	42	243/291/399	156	287	18	9	22%	5%	93	+0.8	214/279/378	164	255	20	9	25%	7%	84	+0.2	193/268/364	171	224	23	8	26%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Chad Pinder 2022 · MLB	30	47→57	53→60	47→45	44	242/298/417	175	296	20	4	25%	7%	100	+1.3	236/278/391	155	308	19	5	29%	5%	86	+0.3	235/264/391	156	311	21	3	31%	4%	82	-0.0
✕Christian Bethancourt 2023 · MLB	31	47→53	50	49→50	40	241/279/393	152	291	18	8	24%	5%	87	+0.4	216/250/363	147	270	18	7	27%	4%	70	-0.9	188/219/324	137	234	18	5	29%	4%	48	-1.0
✕Nick Stavinoha 2011 · MLB	29	51→57	48→55	49→45	42	258/294/402	143	297	16	4	19%	4%	95	+0.9	235/280/403	168	273	21	6	23%	5%	90	+0.6	221/266/395	174	249	24	4	22%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Joey Butler 2016 · MLB	30	55→58	49→50	45	45	265/328/412	148	351	17	6	28%	8%	109	+2.0	224/278/333	109	301	12	7	28%	6%	73	-0.6	203/254/281	78	277	8	4	28%	6%	48	-1.9
✕Luis Fonseca 2015 · AAA	30	55→64	48→50	49→45	44	272/316/421	149	330	15	11	22%	6%	107	+1.8	236/268/347	111	296	12	9	24%	4%	72	-0.7	221/246/314	93	281	11	6	25%	3%	54	-1.0
✕Brandon Snyder 2017 · MLB	30	46→55	47→55	53→45	38	229/274/370	141	317	15	8	32%	5%	80	-0.2	208/263/372	164	292	21	6	35%	6%	77	-0.3	186/244/353	168	263	23	3	38%	5%	64	-1.0
✕Balbino Fuenmayor 2019 · AAA	29	50	47→50	47→30	43	253/292/386	132	292	15	4	20%	5%	90	+0.6	260/296/445	185	292	26	6	21%	4%	106	+1.8	268/298/464	195	293	31	2	20%	3%	111	+1.6
✕J.C. Linares 2016 · AAA	31	50→53	49→50	47→40	47	249/319/404	155	299	16	5	22%	7%	105	+1.7	226/291/358	132	266	14	9	20%	8%	84	+0.1	201/271/326	125	212	16	3	14%	8%	68	-0.3
✕Rob Segedin 2018 · MLB	29	48→52	51→50	43→45	42	245/295/409	164	299	18	5	24%	6%	97	+1.1	220/278/350	130	276	14	7	25%	7%	77	-0.3	159/229/238	79	195	10	0	24%	8%	34	-0.8
✕Collin Cowgill 2016 · MLB	30	48→58	45→50	52→55	46	239/300/361	122	298	13	10	24%	7%	87	+0.4	204/259/305	101	271	10	9	27%	6%	59	-1.6	175/239/304	129	231	16	9	31%	6%	50	-1.1
✕Austin Hays 2024 · MLB	29	51→54	51→60	44→45	45	257/310/424	167	307	18	5	22%	6%	106	+1.8	254/303/413	159	317	18	7	25%	6%	101	+1.4	250/295/406	155	313	18	6	25%	5%	96	+0.5
✕Hunter Dozier 2023 · MLB	31	46→55	51→60	46→45	46	231/296/398	167	291	17	6	26%	8%	95	+0.9	210/265/353	143	284	16	8	31%	7%	73	-0.6	153/189/264	111	219	14	7	37%	4%	21	-1.6
✕Mike Wilson 2013 · MLB	30	44→53	52→55	47→50	46	229/299/392	163	293	20	8	28%	8%	95	+0.9	218/278/361	143	304	17	7	32%	7%	80	-0.2	203/263/335	132	288	17	4	34%	6%	65	-0.4
✕Drew Locke 2012 · AAA	29	48→58	47→50	48→45	43	239/285/381	142	286	14	8	22%	5%	86	+0.3	236/281/364	128	289	13	8	22%	5%	80	-0.1	245/280/360	115	296	12	2	21%	4%	77	-0.2
●Francisco Peguero 2019 · AAA	31	50→60	47→50	51→55	42	250/290/384	134	300	15	11	22%	5%	88	+0.5	269/324/435	166	326	22	9	24%	6%	114	+2.3	283/337/450	166	340	24	7	23%	6%	121	+2.5
✕César Puello 2021 · MLB	30	52→60	46→50	46→55	45	251/342/380	129	329	14	8	26%	7%	109	+2.0	219/303/329	110	290	10	18	27%	7%	82	+0.0	173/271/224	51	241	3	33	26%	6%	47	-0.6
✕Jason Coats 2019 · MLB	29	44→50	50→55	49→45	40	225/268/384	159	275	17	6	25%	5%	81	-0.1	214/253/367	153	276	19	9	29%	5%	72	-0.7	195/229/342	148	248	21	8	31%	4%	55	-1.2
✕Andy Phillips 2007 · MLB	30	46→55	54→55	47→40	45	242/291/422	180	277	22	7	22%	6%	99	+1.2	255/305/392	137	287	16	5	17%	6%	97	+1.1	260/310/384	124	290	14	3	15%	6%	96	+0.5

Ryan Mountcastle

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps