Jason Coats
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 26 | AAACWS | 332 | .330/.395/.519 | 10 | 1 | 121 | — | .293/.347/.457 | |
| 2016 | 26 | MLBCWS | 58 | .200/.298/.340 | 1 | 1 | 80 | -0.4 | ||
| 2018 | 28 | AAATB | 426 | .247/.295/.448 | 15 | 3 | 63 | — | .205/.241/.370 | |
| 2019 | 29 | AAATB | 363 | .250/.296/.461 | 18 | 6 | 55 | — | .198/.232/.350 | |
| 2020 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 23 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 565 | 516 | 140 | 38 | 3 | 12 | 31 | 85 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 271 | 321 | 426 | 748 | 155 | 303 | 15 | 5 | 327 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 77 | 68 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 265 | 306 | 338 | 644 | 74 | 290 | 12 | 4 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 476 | 429 | 125 | 35 | 2 | 15 | 35 | 65 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 291 | 353 | 487 | 840 | 196 | 312 | 14 | 7 | 366 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 530 | 489 | 132 | 29 | 1 | 17 | 29 | 93 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 270 | 316 | 438 | 754 | 168 | 299 | 18 | 5 | 329 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 48 | 47 | 16 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 340 | 354 | 532 | 886 | 191 | 390 | 12 | 2 | 387 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | INTL | Criollos de Caguas | — | 29 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 207 | 214 | 421 | 36 | 263 | 31 | 3 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 58 | 50 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 298 | 340 | 638 | 140 | 243 | 21 | 9 | 288 | 80 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -4 | +1 | -0.4 |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 332 | 297 | 98 | 22 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 69 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 330 | 395 | 519 | 914 | 189 | 402 | 21 | 8 | 400 | 121 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 426 | 397 | 98 | 27 | 4 | 15 | 24 | 93 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 247 | 295 | 448 | 743 | 202 | 285 | 22 | 6 | 325 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 363 | 336 | 84 | 17 | 0 | 18 | 20 | 97 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 250 | 296 | 461 | 757 | 211 | 293 | 27 | 6 | 328 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 58 | 50 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 298 | 340 | 638 | 140 | 243 | 21 | 9 | 288 | 81 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -4 | +1 | -0.4 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 565 | 527 | 122 | 31 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 111 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 231 | 273 | 353 | 626 | 121 | 270 | 20 | 4 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 77 | 69 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 261 | 292 | 333 | 625 | 72 | 280 | 14 | 3 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 476 | 444 | 109 | 26 | 1 | 12 | 20 | 96 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 245 | 287 | 390 | 677 | 144 | 280 | 20 | 4 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 530 | 498 | 120 | 25 | 1 | 11 | 20 | 115 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 241 | 276 | 361 | 637 | 120 | 281 | 22 | 4 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 48 | 47 | 15 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 319 | 333 | 511 | 844 | 191 | 383 | 15 | 2 | 359 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 58 | 50 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 298 | 340 | 638 | 140 | 243 | 21 | 9 | 286 | 80 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -4 | +1 | -0.4 |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 332 | 304 | 89 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 18 | 79 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 293 | 347 | 457 | 804 | 164 | 366 | 24 | 5 | 347 | 121 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 426 | 405 | 83 | 20 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 108 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 205 | 241 | 370 | 611 | 165 | 243 | 25 | 4 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 363 | 343 | 68 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 114 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 198 | 232 | 350 | 582 | 152 | 244 | 31 | 4 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 565 | 527 | 122 | 31 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 111 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 231 | 273 | 353 | 626 | 121 | 275 | 20 | 4 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A RAW | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 565 | 516 | 140 | 38 | 3 | 12 | 31 | 85 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 271 | 321 | 426 | 748 | 155 | 303 | 15 | 5 | 327 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 553 | 513 | 128 | 30 | 2 | 12 | 22 | 108 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 250 | 290 | 386 | 676 | 136 | 290 | 20 | 4 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 553 | 497 | 143 | 38 | 3 | 15 | 38 | 74 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 288 | 347 | 467 | 814 | 179 | 308 | 13 | 7 | 353 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 607 | 574 | 141 | 35 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 129 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 246 | 277 | 373 | 650 | 127 | 295 | 21 | 3 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 607 | 564 | 153 | 39 | 1 | 17 | 31 | 108 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 271 | 314 | 434 | 748 | 163 | 306 | 18 | 5 | 327 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 390 | 354 | 99 | 23 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 91 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 280 | 339 | 441 | 780 | 161 | 350 | 23 | 6 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 390 | 347 | 108 | 26 | 2 | 11 | 30 | 81 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 311 | 381 | 493 | 874 | 182 | 379 | 21 | 8 | 383 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 426 | 405 | 83 | 20 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 108 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 205 | 241 | 370 | 611 | 165 | 245 | 25 | 4 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA RAW | Durham Bulls | — | 426 | 397 | 98 | 27 | 4 | 15 | 24 | 93 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 247 | 295 | 448 | 743 | 202 | 285 | 22 | 6 | 325 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 363 | 343 | 68 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 114 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 198 | 232 | 350 | 582 | 152 | 250 | 31 | 4 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA RAW | Durham Bulls | — | 363 | 336 | 84 | 17 | 0 | 18 | 20 | 97 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 250 | 296 | 461 | 757 | 211 | 293 | 27 | 6 | 328 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 565 | 530 | 122 | 31 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 111 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 230 | 273 | 351 | 624 | 121 | 270 | 20 | 4 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 553 | 519 | 128 | 30 | 2 | 12 | 22 | 108 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 247 | 290 | 382 | 671 | 135 | 280 | 20 | 4 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 607 | 577 | 141 | 35 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 129 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 244 | 277 | 371 | 648 | 127 | 289 | 21 | 3 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 390 | 355 | 99 | 23 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 91 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 279 | 339 | 439 | 779 | 161 | 348 | 23 | 6 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 426 | 404 | 83 | 20 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 108 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 205 | 241 | 371 | 612 | 166 | 243 | 25 | 4 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 363 | 345 | 68 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 114 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 197 | 232 | 348 | 580 | 151 | 244 | 31 | 4 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 58 | 50 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 298 | 340 | 638 | 140 | 243 | 21 | 9 | 288 | 76 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -4 | +1 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 560 | 112 | 45 | 0 | 11 | 56 | 134 | 22 | 11 | 0 | 200 | 297 | 339 | 637 | 139 | 243 | 21 | 9 | 288 | 76 | -15 | +2 | +7 | -47 | +14 | -3.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2904 | 2716 | 641 | 152 | 12 | 69 | 117 | 661 | 33 | 41 | 16 | 236 | 276 | 377 | 653 | 141 | 285 | 23 | 4 | 281 | 76 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -4 | +1 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 608 | 143 | 34 | 3 | 15 | 26 | 148 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 235 | 274 | 375 | 649 | 140 | 284 | 23 | 4 | 281 | 76 | -15 | +2 | +7 | -47 | +14 | -3.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAADurham Bulls · 363 PAwOBA .322 → .249 (−73)K% 26.7% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.72% | ÷1.020 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.51% | ÷0.998 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 3.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.55% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.50% | ÷0.986 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 18.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.11% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 5.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.025 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.53% | ÷1.128 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.982 | 5.51% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 105, K 104, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .322 → .249; ISO .211 → .153; BABIP .293 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAADurham Bulls · 426 PAwOBA .316 → .261 (−55)K% 21.8% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.83% | ÷1.032 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.40% | ÷0.986 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 3.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.11% | ÷1.052 | ×0.930 | ×1.020 | ×0.992 | 15.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.88% | ÷1.091 | ×0.830 | ×1.020 | ×0.992 | 6.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷0.993 | ×0.970 | ×1.020 | ×0.992 | 1.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.93% | ÷0.970 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 4.24% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 110, 2B 118, 3B 99, K 106, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .316 → .261; ISO .202 → .167; BABIP .285 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAACharlotte Knights · 332 PAwOBA .390 → .347 (−43)K% 20.8% → 23.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.78% | ÷1.053 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.53% | ÷0.990 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.11% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.07% | ÷1.031 | ×0.930 | ×1.007 | ×1.018 | 25.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.65% | ÷0.974 | ×0.830 | ×1.007 | ×1.018 | 8.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷0.926 | ×0.970 | ×1.007 | ×1.018 | 0.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.39% | ÷0.950 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 3.95% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 85, K 111, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .390 → .347; ISO .189 → .171; BABIP .402 → .366. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAACharlotte Knights · 530 PAwOBA .322 → .274 (−48)K% 17.5% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.55% | ÷0.971 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.28% | ÷1.017 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 3.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.75% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.46% | ÷0.973 | ×0.930 | ×0.996 | ×1.033 | 21.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.32% | ÷0.993 | ×0.830 | ×0.996 | ×1.033 | 6.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.25% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.996 | ×1.033 | 0.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.29% | ÷1.306 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 2.85% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 161, 1B 95, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 94, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .322 → .274; ISO .168 → .122; BABIP .299 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AABirmingham Barons · 48 PAwOBA .376 → .359 (−17)K% 12.5% → 15.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.981 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.08% | ÷1.019 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 1.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.07% | ÷1.007 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 15.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 21.95% | ÷0.875 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 22.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.087 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.102 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 101, 2B 75, 3B 117, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .376 → .359; ISO .191 → .193; BABIP .390 → .383. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 476 PAwOBA .358 → .294 (−64)K% 13.7% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.66% | ÷0.961 | ×1.420 | — | — | 20.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.93% | ÷1.012 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 4.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.26% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 1.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.05% | ÷0.949 | ×0.940 | ×1.000 | ×0.988 | 19.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.62% | ÷1.069 | ×0.830 | ×1.000 | ×0.988 | 7.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.55% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.000 | ×0.988 | 0.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.12% | ÷1.065 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 3.44% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 90, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 92, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .358 → .294; ISO .196 → .152; BABIP .312 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AABirmingham Barons · 77 PAwOBA .276 → .271 (−5)K% 11.7% → 14.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.69% | ÷0.955 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.90% | ÷1.057 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 2.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.30% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.73% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | ×1.040 | ×1.012 | 22.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.08% | ÷0.903 | ×0.910 | ×1.040 | ×1.012 | 5.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.69% | ÷1.065 | ×0.880 | ×1.040 | ×1.012 | 1.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.967 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 104, 2B 81, 3B 113, K 91, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .276 → .271; ISO .074 → .077; BABIP .290 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AKannapolis Intimidators · 565 PAwOBA .320 → .269 (−51)K% 15.0% → 19.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.04% | ÷1.024 | ×1.340 | — | — | 19.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.49% | ÷0.924 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.990 | 3.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.42% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.990 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.19% | ÷0.994 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×0.990 | 18.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.82% | ÷0.980 | ×0.820 | ×1.008 | ×0.990 | 7.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.004 | ×0.940 | ×1.008 | ×0.990 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷1.053 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.990 | 2.15% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 99, 2B 96, 3B 101, K 105, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .320 → .269; ISO .155 → .125; BABIP .303 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .