Alexander Albertus

SS Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

Age 22 R/R 6'1" / 176 lbs A HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP40OGV rank#280ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	19	A/ROK2 orgs	225	.298/.423/.409	3	6	75	—	.226/.319/.313
2025	20	ROKCWS	25	.333/.520/.444	0	3	104	—	.250/.400/.300
2026	21	A/ROKCWS	363	.273/.390/.407	6	6	83	—	.233/.320/.340
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBCWS	473	.230/.314/.342	8	8	88	0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	23	MLBCWS	128	.234/.318/.356	2	2	91	0.3
2029PROJ58% MLB	24	MLBCWS	214	.236/.320/.363	4	4	94	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

K%80

Whiff%80

Z-Con%79

wOBA69

BB%69

wRC+68

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 7.9, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 87%

CompsLeo Jiménez (age 22) · José Caballero (age 22) · Jesus Rodriguez (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†88

AVG/OBP/SLG.228 / .312 / .339

PA210

HR3

K%22

BB%10

ISO112

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$32M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 51 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT51

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE61

scouting grade only

SPEED51

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	—	150	112	34	3	2	0	32	21	4	6	0	304	473	366	839	62	366	14	21	391	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	ACL Dodgers	—	170	126	39	5	0	5	38	19	3	9	6	310	479	468	947	159	324	11	22	422	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	82	70	16	4	0	1	10	15	0	1	0	229	325	329	654	100	268	18	12	294	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	ACL Dodgers	—	143	111	38	7	0	2	27	20	3	5	2	342	479	459	938	117	400	14	19	423	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	25	18	6	2	0	0	6	3	1	3	0	333	520	444	964	111	400	12	24	444	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	347	287	78	12	3	6	50	62	5	6	5	272	388	397	785	125	326	18	14	354	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	16	13	4	2	1	0	3	3	0	0	2	308	438	615	1.053	308	400	19	19	449	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	150	120	25	2	1	0	24	25	4	6	0	208	358	242	600	33	255	17	16	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	—	170	141	35	4	0	4	23	27	3	9	6	248	365	362	727	113	266	16	14	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	82	72	13	3	0	1	8	21	0	1	0	181	263	264	526	83	235	26	10	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	—	143	123	31	5	0	2	16	29	3	5	2	252	352	341	694	89	299	20	11	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	25	20	5	1	0	0	4	4	1	3	0	250	400	300	700	50	311	16	16	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	347	304	71	10	3	5	34	84	5	6	5	234	321	336	656	102	300	24	10	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	16	14	3	1	1	0	2	4	0	0	2	214	312	429	741	214	291	25	12	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	150	120	25	2	1	0	24	25	4	6	0	208	358	242	600	33	258	17	16	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	—	150	112	34	3	2	0	32	21	4	6	0	304	473	366	839	62	366	14	21	391	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	—	170	141	35	4	0	4	23	27	3	9	6	248	365	362	727	113	274	16	14	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Dodgers	—	170	126	39	5	0	5	38	19	3	9	6	310	479	468	947	159	324	11	22	422	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	225	196	43	8	0	2	23	50	3	6	2	219	311	291	602	71	279	22	10	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	225	181	54	11	0	3	37	35	3	6	2	298	423	409	832	110	349	16	16	376	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	25	20	5	1	0	0	4	4	1	3	0	250	400	300	700	50	312	16	16	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	—	25	18	6	2	0	0	6	3	1	3	0	333	520	444	964	111	400	12	24	444	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	363	318	74	12	3	5	36	89	5	6	7	233	320	336	657	104	305	25	10	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	363	300	82	14	4	6	53	65	5	6	7	273	390	407	797	133	329	18	15	358	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	150	121	25	2	1	0	24	25	4	6	0	207	358	240	598	33	255	17	16	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	—	170	142	35	4	0	4	23	27	3	9	6	246	365	359	724	113	266	16	14	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	225	197	43	8	0	2	23	50	3	6	2	218	311	289	600	71	276	22	10	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	25	20	5	1	0	0	4	4	1	3	0	250	400	300	700	50	311	16	16	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	363	319	74	12	3	5	36	89	5	6	7	232	320	335	656	103	300	25	10	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	225	197	43	8	0	2	23	50	3	6	2	218	311	289	600	71	276	22	10	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	25	20	5	1	0	0	4	4	1	3	0	250	400	300	700	50	311	16	16	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	363	319	74	12	3	5	36	89	5	6	7	232	320	335	656	103	300	25	10	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CWS	0%	473	419	96	18	3	8	46	104	5	8	3	230	314	342	656	112	285	22	10	298	88	-7	+0	+0	+5	+10	0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CWS	43%	296	262	61	12	2	5	29	64	3	5	2	233	317	353	670	120	286	22	10	303	91	-3	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.7
2029	24	MLB MLE	CWS	58%	369	326	77	15	2	7	36	80	4	7	2	236	319	361	680	125	287	22	10	307	94	-3	+1	+0	+4	+8	1.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	CWS	65%	408	361	84	16	2	8	40	88	4	8	3	237	320	364	684	128	287	22	10	308	95	-2	+0	+0	+4	+9	1.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	CWS	68%	430	380	89	17	2	9	42	93	5	8	3	237	320	366	686	130	287	22	10	309	95	-2	+0	+0	+5	+9	1.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	CWS	68%	437	387	90	17	2	9	42	95	5	8	3	236	319	366	685	130	287	22	10	309	95	-3	+0	+0	+5	+9	1.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	CWS	68%	437	388	90	17	2	9	42	96	4	7	3	235	317	362	679	127	286	22	10	306	93	-4	+0	-1	+5	+9	1.0
2034	29	MLB MLE	CWS	66%	428	380	89	17	2	9	41	95	4	6	3	232	314	356	670	123	285	22	10	303	91	-5	+0	-1	+5	+9	0.8
2035	30	MLB MLE	CWS	66%	417	370	85	16	2	8	40	94	4	5	3	229	311	348	659	119	284	23	10	298	88	-6	-0	-2	+4	+9	0.5
2036	31	MLB MLE	CWS	65%	401	356	80	15	2	7	38	92	4	4	4	225	306	339	645	113	281	23	9	292	84	-8	-1	-3	+4	+9	0.2
2037	32	MLB MLE	CWS	65%	379	338	75	14	2	6	35	89	3	3	9	220	300	326	627	106	278	23	9	285	79	-9	-3	-4	+4	+8	-0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	CWS	43%	128	113	26	5	1	2	13	28	1	2	1	234	318	356	674	122	287	22	10	304	91	-1	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	CWS	58%	214	189	45	9	1	4	21	46	2	4	1	236	320	363	683	127	288	21	10	308	94	-2	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.6
2030	25	MLB CTX	CWS	65%	264	233	57	11	2	6	26	57	3	5	2	237	321	367	688	130	288	22	10	310	95	-2	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.7
2031	26	MLB CTX	CWS	68%	292	259	62	12	2	6	28	63	3	5	2	238	321	369	690	131	288	22	10	310	95	-2	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.8
2032	27	MLB CTX	CWS	68%	297	263	62	12	2	6	29	65	3	5	2	237	320	369	688	131	288	22	10	310	95	-2	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.8
2033	28	MLB CTX	CWS	68%	297	263	62	12	2	6	29	65	3	5	2	236	318	364	682	129	287	22	10	307	93	-2	+0	-0	+3	+6	0.7
2034	29	MLB CTX	CWS	66%	284	252	58	11	1	6	27	63	3	4	2	233	315	358	673	125	286	22	10	304	91	-3	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	CWS	66%	273	242	56	11	1	5	26	62	3	3	2	230	312	351	662	120	285	23	10	299	88	-4	-0	-1	+3	+6	0.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	CWS	65%	261	232	53	10	1	5	25	60	2	2	3	226	307	341	648	115	282	23	10	294	84	-5	-1	-2	+3	+6	0.1
2037	32	MLB CTX	CWS	65%	245	218	48	9	1	4	23	57	2	2	6	221	301	329	630	108	278	23	9	286	79	-6	-2	-2	+3	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2555	2264	529	102	14	50	247	566	25	37	23	234	316	357	673	124	289	22	10	303	90	-28	-2	-7	+27	+55	4.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	135	26	4	13	63	144	6	9	6	234	316	361	677	127	289	22	10	303	90	-7	-0	-2	+7	+14	1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5145	4528	1044	191	25	91	516	1127	58	95	51	231	317	344	661	114	285	22	10	301	90	-48	-1	-10	+45	+91	7.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	131	24	3	11	65	142	7	12	6	229	315	339	654	110	284	22	10	301	90	-7	-0	-2	+7	+14	1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 347 PAwOBA .348 → .291 (−57)K% 17.9% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.87%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	24.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.41%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	—	9.94%
HBP% /PA	1.44%	—	×0.780	—	—	1.12%
Singles /BIP	25.33%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.023	—	23.85%
Doubles /BIP	5.33%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.023	—	4.53%
Triples /BIP	1.33%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.023	—	1.24%
Home runs /BIP	2.67%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	—	2.13%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .348 → .291; ISO .125 → .105; BABIP .326 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL White Sox · 16 PAwOBA .438 → .297 (−141)K% 18.8% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.75%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	27.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.75%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.975	11.33%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.975	0.00%
Singles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.975	8.00%
Doubles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.975	14.04%
Triples /BIP	10.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.975	7.02%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.975	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .438 → .297; ISO .308 → .213; BABIP .400 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL White Sox · 25 PAwOBA .435 → .322 (−113)K% 12.0% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.00%	÷0.998	×1.440	—	—	17.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	24.00%	÷0.994	×0.620	—	×0.985	14.75%
HBP% /PA	4.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.985	2.84%
Singles /BIP	26.67%	÷0.980	×0.820	—	×0.985	21.97%
Doubles /BIP	13.33%	÷1.039	×0.720	—	×0.985	9.10%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.720	—	×0.985	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.128	×0.780	—	×0.985	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 96, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 100, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .435 → .322; ISO .111 → .082; BABIP .400 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Dodgers · 143 PAwOBA .416 → .301 (−115)K% 14.0% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.99%	÷0.984	×1.440	—	—	20.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.88%	÷1.070	×0.620	—	×0.995	10.89%
HBP% /PA	2.10%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	1.50%
Singles /BIP	31.87%	÷1.011	×0.820	×0.953	×0.995	24.50%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.010	×0.720	×0.953	×0.995	5.20%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.967	×0.720	×0.953	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.20%	÷0.942	×0.780	—	×0.995	1.81%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 102, 3B 93, K 97, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.

Result: wOBA .416 → .301; ISO .117 → .092; BABIP .400 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 82 PAwOBA .295 → .240 (−55)K% 18.3% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.29%	÷0.964	×1.360	—	—	25.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.20%	÷0.943	×0.690	—	×1.030	9.19%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.072	×0.920	×0.998	×1.030	17.64%
Doubles /BIP	7.27%	÷0.973	×0.830	×0.998	×1.030	6.38%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.973	×0.910	×0.998	×1.030	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.82%	÷1.072	×0.800	—	×1.030	1.40%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 114, 2B 95, 3B 95, K 93, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .295 → .240; ISO .100 → .080; BABIP .268 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Dodgers · 170 PAwOBA .418 → .330 (−88)K% 11.2% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.18%	÷1.005	×1.440	—	—	16.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.76%	÷0.992	×0.620	—	×1.008	13.71%
HBP% /PA	1.76%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	1.28%
Singles /BIP	27.10%	÷0.965	×0.820	×0.993	×1.008	23.05%
Doubles /BIP	4.67%	÷1.032	×0.720	×0.993	×1.008	3.26%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.980	×0.720	×0.993	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.67%	÷1.005	×0.780	—	×1.008	3.65%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 93, 2B 106, 3B 96, K 101, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .418 → .330; ISO .159 → .132; BABIP .324 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL LAD Bautista · 150 PAwOBA .388 → .290 (−98)K% 14.0% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.00%	÷1.025	×1.220	—	—	16.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.33%	÷0.942	×0.700	—	×1.008	15.97%
HBP% /PA	2.67%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.88%
Singles /BIP	31.87%	÷1.028	×0.680	×1.050	×1.008	22.30%
Doubles /BIP	3.30%	÷0.937	×0.600	×1.050	×1.008	2.23%
Triples /BIP	2.20%	÷0.915	×0.600	×1.050	×1.008	1.52%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.028	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 106, 2B 87, 3B 83, K 105, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .388 → .290; ISO .062 → .046; BABIP .366 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Spike Owen'83-'95 * career totals — 13 seasons, 5,615 PA	8.5	5,615	46	82	242*	322*	356*	+55	+30	15.6	15.3
/162	664	5	10	+6.5	+3.6	1.8	pk7: 15
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#5Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
/162	664	4	15	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.2	2,766	54	42	233	312	355	+30	+21	7.3	6.6
/162	664	13	10	+7.1	+5.0	1.7	pk7: 6
#6Kevin Stocker'93-'00 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,197 PA	4.8	3,197	23	45	241*	324*	337*	+34	+8	6.4	6.5
/162	664	5	9	+7.1	+1.8	1.3	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alexander Albertus (OGILVIE)	22	46→51	37→42	46→51	61	228/312/339	111	285	3	4	22%	10%	88	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Leo Jiménez 2023 · A	22	48→52	41→45	48→45	51	225/337/325	100	294	8	9	24%	9%	95	+1.0	235/325/347	112	296	10	7	23%	7%	95	+0.9	237/330/347	110	299	10	5	22%	7%	95	+0.5
✕José Caballero 2019 · A	22	47→45	43→45	47→70	45	231/292/348	117	278	10	9	21%	6%	81	-0.1	219/292/328	109	283	9	26	25%	8%	78	-0.3	226/318/339	113	301	10	63	26%	9%	91	+0.4
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2024 · A	22	52→61	43→45	53→50	48	249/311/362	113	301	9	14	20%	7%	91	+0.7	256/314/367	111	304	10	14	18%	7%	94	+0.9	261/323/368	107	303	10	16	17%	7%	95	+0.6
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2024 · A	21	51→54	40	50	50	241/318/332	91	306	7	13	22%	9%	88	+0.4	240/315/330	90	307	8	14	22%	8%	86	+0.3	238/317/323	85	303	7	15	22%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	43	42→40	46→45	49	206/292/311	105	279	9	6	28%	9%	74	-0.6	222/303/310	88	316	7	6	29%	9%	78	-0.3	239/331/311	72	336	7	6	28%	11%	86	+0.1
✕LuJames Groover 2024 · A	22	47→55	40→45	47→40	48	225/287/324	99	261	7	8	16%	6%	74	-0.5	243/309/357	114	287	11	6	18%	8%	90	+0.6	250/320/355	105	298	10	4	18%	8%	92	+0.5
✕Steve Tolleson 2006 · A	22	42→52	44→45	50	51	208/290/327	119	246	12	8	20%	9%	77	-0.3	236/308/337	101	301	8	12	22%	9%	85	+0.2	256/314/373	117	303	10	12	18%	7%	92	+0.6
✕Blaze Alexander 2021 · A	22	46→50	42→50	51→50	42	219/286/327	109	306	9	11	30%	7%	74	-0.5	211/283/339	128	327	14	12	37%	7%	77	-0.3	246/324/371	124	344	12	15	29%	8%	98	+0.8
✕Corey Toups 2015 · A	22	49→50	40→45	54→50	51	231/309/335	104	297	6	8	23%	9%	85	+0.2	226/287/340	114	308	8	16	28%	7%	78	-0.3	219/280/337	118	305	9	18	29%	6%	72	-0.6
✕Luis Santana 2021 · AA	22	50	39→45	48→50	48	238/309/327	89	284	6	8	18%	7%	83	+0.1	215/273/337	122	282	13	9	28%	6%	72	-0.7	214/269/345	131	274	15	8	27%	5%	69	-0.5
✕Nelson Quiroz 2024 · A	22	47	44→40	49→40	49	232/294/354	122	277	11	6	20%	8%	84	+0.1	243/290/320	77	279	4	3	14%	6%	74	-0.6	263/309/325	62	294	2	0	11%	6%	77	-0.1
✕Jeferson Morales 2021 · A	22	42→47	40→45	47→50	52	201/291/303	102	246	6	8	20%	9%	72	-0.7	201/282/330	129	264	13	9	28%	8%	75	-0.5	222/297/349	127	274	11	8	22%	7%	81	-0.0
●Kristian Campbell 2024 · A	22	49→58	41→45	46→50	43	226/306/330	104	321	7	10	30%	7%	83	+0.1	250/335/385	135	341	14	13	28%	10%	107	+1.8	243/335/370	127	339	13	12	29%	10%	101	+1.2
✕Jacob Amaya 2021 · A	22	47	40→45	44→45	52	223/301/324	101	288	7	7	24%	10%	79	-0.2	215/285/332	117	275	12	6	25%	9%	76	-0.4	218/291/330	112	279	11	6	25%	9%	75	-0.4
✕Miguel Amaya 2022 · AA	23	44→43	44→50	50→40	51	216/311/333	117	280	11	7	25%	10%	86	+0.3	226/312/365	139	299	15	5	28%	9%	94	+0.9	230/302/374	144	273	16	1	22%	7%	92	+0.3
✕Andrew Knizner 2017 · A	22	49	44→50	48→40	48	238/313/357	119	268	11	3	16%	6%	92	+0.7	253/302/372	119	289	12	3	17%	5%	91	+0.6	258/306/380	122	292	14	2	17%	5%	92	+0.5
✕Graysen Tarlow 2024 · A	23	45	43→30	49→40	50	217/307/331	113	283	10	8	25%	9%	84	+0.1	211/291/285	74	299	6	6	29%	8%	68	-1.0	224/307/292	68	313	6	7	28%	8%	76	-0.1
✕Ricardo Olivar 2024 · A	22	49→50	44→45	51→50	45	233/311/357	125	326	10	9	30%	8%	91	+0.7	224/296/352	128	290	14	9	26%	9%	84	+0.2	215/289/349	134	265	17	10	25%	9%	78	-0.2
✕Zelous Wheeler 2010 · A	23	48→54	42→50	47→45	47	230/301/339	108	294	9	9	24%	8%	83	+0.1	243/316/363	120	292	11	8	20%	8%	94	+0.9	245/320/372	126	288	12	7	18%	8%	95	+0.7
✕Nick Senzel 2017 · A	22	48→58	45→50	51→50	47	232/297/367	135	304	10	16	26%	8%	88	+0.4	256/311/403	147	336	12	14	26%	7%	101	+1.4	263/317/416	154	341	14	16	26%	7%	104	+1.0

Alexander Albertus

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps