Jeferson Morales

Jeferson MoralesC St. Paul Saints

Age 27 R/R 5'9" / 170 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†90

AVG/OBP/SLG.232 / .303 / .367

PA250

HR5

K%22

BB%7

ISO136

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$16M	+$14M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	19	ROK	DSL Twins	—	232	193	42	11	4	1	26	42	13	17	11	218	349	332	681	114	273	18	11	297	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK	DSL Twins	—	232	178	54	15	6	1	41	29	13	17	11	303	466	472	937	169	358	12	18	423	182	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	ROK	GCL Twins	—	134	118	19	5	2	2	12	26	4	0	1	161	261	288	549	127	189	19	9	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	ROK	GCL Twins	—	134	110	26	7	3	3	20	18	4	0	1	236	373	436	809	200	258	13	15	364	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A	2 teams	—	392	342	70	22	0	11	34	101	14	12	3	205	303	365	668	161	254	26	9	290	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A	2 teams	—	392	329	84	24	0	12	47	72	14	12	3	255	372	438	809	182	291	18	12	363	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	282	247	40	10	1	6	17	97	13	5	1	162	253	283	536	121	228	34	6	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	282	241	50	11	2	7	23	71	13	5	1	207	310	357	667	149	256	25	8	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	200	174	36	7	2	4	21	58	4	6	1	207	307	339	646	132	283	29	10	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	200	168	44	10	2	6	27	41	4	6	1	262	377	452	829	190	311	20	14	369	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA	2 teams	—	431	390	90	23	2	12	26	93	12	6	4	231	299	392	691	162	271	22	6	301	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA	2 teams	—	431	380	110	28	2	10	36	68	12	6	4	289	369	453	822	163	328	16	8	365	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	—	314	278	64	12	3	4	22	70	9	4	1	230	307	338	646	108	288	22	7	288	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	—	314	265	68	13	3	7	35	58	9	4	1	257	362	408	770	151	299	18	11	344	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	MIN	—	250	225	53	12	2	5	17	56	6	3	1	236	306	373	680	138	286	22	7	303	90	-3	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	MIN	41%	301	270	64	14	2	7	21	67	7	4	1	237	309	381	690	144	286	22	7	304	91	-3	+0	-1	+5	+9	1.1
2028	29	MLB	MIN	54%	327	293	69	15	2	7	24	74	7	4	1	235	309	372	681	137	286	23	7	304	91	-3	+0	-1	+6	+9	1.1
2029	30	MLB	MIN	62%	344	309	72	15	2	8	25	79	7	4	1	233	305	372	677	139	285	23	7	302	89	-4	+0	-2	+6	+10	1.0
2030	31	MLB	MIN	66%	327	293	67	14	2	7	24	76	7	3	1	229	302	362	664	133	283	23	7	298	87	-5	+0	-3	+6	+9	0.8
2027	28	MLB	MIN	41%	125	112	27	6	1	3	9	28	3	2	1	241	315	393	707	152	286	22	7	288	79	-3	+0	-0	+2	+4	0.2
2028	29	MLB	MIN	54%	177	158	37	8	1	4	13	40	4	2	1	234	309	373	682	139	286	23	7	288	79	-4	+0	-1	+3	+5	0.3
2029	30	MLB	MIN	62%	212	190	44	9	1	5	16	48	4	2	1	232	305	368	673	137	285	23	8	287	78	-5	+0	-1	+4	+6	0.3
2030	31	MLB	MIN	66%	215	193	44	9	1	5	16	50	4	2	1	228	300	363	663	135	283	23	7	284	75	-6	+0	-2	+4	+6	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	729	653	152	32	4	17	54	166	15	8	4	233	306	372	678	139	285	23	7	286	77	-19	+0	-4	+13	+21	1.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	136	29	4	15	48	148	13	7	4	234	306	375	681	141	286	23	7	286	77	-17	-0	-4	+12	+18	1.0
Career	—			—	3534	3132	686	160	24	74	269	839	103	68	27	219	302	356	658	137	273	24	8	290	80	-78	+3	-7	+63	+100	8.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	126	29	4	14	49	154	19	13	5	219	301	356	657	137	272	24	8	290	80	-14	+1	-1	+12	+18	1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	19	ROK	DSL Twins	—	232	178	54	15	6	1	41	29	13	17	11	303	466	472	937	169	358	12	18	423	182	+21	-1	—	—	+7	2.8
2019	20	ROK	GCL Twins	—	134	110	26	7	3	3	20	18	4	0	1	236	373	436	809	200	258	13	15	364	136	+6	-0	—	—	+4	0.9
2021	22	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	100	93	28	5	0	5	5	20	2	0	1	301	350	516	866	215	338	20	5	381	150	+6	-0	—	—	+3	0.8
2021	22	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	292	236	56	19	0	7	42	52	12	12	2	237	379	407	786	169	274	18	14	357	131	+10	+2	—	—	+8	2.1
2022	23	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	282	241	50	11	2	7	23	71	13	5	1	207	310	357	667	149	256	25	8	300	88	-4	+1	—	—	+8	0.5
2023	24	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	200	168	44	10	2	6	27	41	4	6	1	262	377	452	829	190	311	20	14	369	141	+9	+1	—	—	+6	1.6
2024	25	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	60	53	19	7	1	1	6	11	1	2	0	358	433	585	1.018	226	439	18	10	444	198	+7	+0	—	—	+2	0.9
2024	25	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	371	327	91	21	1	9	30	57	11	4	4	278	359	431	790	153	311	15	8	352	128	+12	-1	—	—	+11	2.2
2025	26	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	269	229	57	11	3	6	29	49	8	4	1	249	353	402	755	153	288	18	11	338	117	+5	+0	—	—	+8	1.4
2025	26	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	45	36	11	2	0	1	6	9	1	0	0	306	419	444	863	139	370	20	13	374	144	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	8	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
	/162	664	17	4	246	300	398	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#2Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	6	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
	/162	664	19	8	230	304	380	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#3Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	7	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
	/162	664	21	6	245	302	422	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Jorge Alfarolast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,693 PA	7	1,693	48	18	254	303	396	+30	+17	9.1	9.1
	/162	664	19	7	254	303	396	+11.9	+6.6	3.6	pk7: 9
#6Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	753	16	8	233	302	369	+13	+8	2.4	2.4
	/162	664	14	7	233	302	369	+11.9	+7.1	2.1	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jeferson Morales (OGILVIE)	27	50	45	45	50	232/303/367	135	286	5	3	22%	7%	90	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jordy Mercer 2014 · MLB	27	52→59	47→50	43→45	46	257/309/399	141	302	13	8	19%	6%	99	+1.7	253/307/373	120	293	11	5	17%	7%	92	+1.2	254/324/387	133	291	12	1	16%	8%	90	+0.9
✕John Hester 2011 · MLB	27	50	48→55	48→50	42	249/296/406	157	318	14	11	26%	6%	95	+1.4	208/266/322	114	288	12	5	30%	7%	62	-0.9	184/244/291	107	269	11	4	34%	7%	42	-1.0
✕J.R. Towles 2010 · MLB	26	44→53	47→50	45→50	47	222/301/361	139	260	15	9	21%	7%	88	+0.9	211/291/332	121	248	11	8	19%	7%	76	+0.0	199/280/301	102	229	8	5	16%	7%	60	-0.4
✕Andrew Knizner 2021 · MLB	26	48	47→50	49→40	45	239/293/369	130	274	15	7	19%	5%	85	+0.7	217/293/329	112	267	11	5	22%	8%	76	+0.0	218/299/361	142	257	17	2	22%	7%	83	+0.2
✕Pedro Severino 2021 · MLB	28	46→48	49→50	48→45	49	233/301/374	141	274	17	6	22%	8%	90	+1.0	239/299/374	135	304	15	6	25%	8%	89	+1.0	230/288/355	125	295	14	6	26%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Kevin Plawecki 2019 · MLB	28	47→56	47→45	43→30	50	233/311/369	136	275	14	3	20%	8%	93	+1.3	245/315/376	131	289	12	5	19%	7%	96	+1.5	235/301/328	92	275	8	0	17%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Tim Olson 2006 · MLB	27	46	48→50	45→50	45	232/289/379	147	283	15	12	24%	7%	86	+0.8	225/268/357	132	293	15	12	27%	5%	71	-0.3	205/244/322	117	273	14	12	30%	5%	50	-0.7
✕Gerald Laird 2009 · MLB	29	51→47	45→50	42→50	46	248/303/377	129	294	12	6	20%	6%	91	+1.1	227/295/337	110	264	9	7	17%	7%	78	+0.2	268/338/369	101	310	6	3	14%	8%	97	+0.4
✕Elias Díaz 2019 · MLB	28	53→56	45→50	45	47	260/305/382	122	295	13	5	17%	6%	93	+1.3	243/298/361	118	279	12	3	17%	7%	85	+0.7	242/293/380	138	290	16	0	22%	6%	85	+0.3
✕Brendan Harris 2008 · MLB	27	54→58	46→50	47→45	47	265/320/402	137	312	13	6	19%	7%	105	+2.1	251/309/372	121	300	10	3	19%	7%	92	+1.2	221/306/334	113	260	11	1	18%	9%	80	+0.2
●James McCann 2016 · MLB	26	53→56	44→50	46→45	40	258/294/379	122	316	11	5	22%	4%	87	+0.8	243/294/382	139	304	17	3	25%	6%	89	+0.9	252/308/402	150	319	18	2	26%	6%	98	+1.2
✕Steve Tolleson 2011 · MLB	27	52→53	44→45	48→50	48	255/310/380	125	296	11	11	18%	7%	95	+1.4	232/294/336	104	291	9	15	22%	8%	76	+0.1	236/304/337	101	299	9	14	22%	8%	80	+0.2
✕Welington Castillo 2014 · MLB	27	51→57	48→55	48→30	48	253/329/397	143	320	16	3	25%	8%	108	+2.3	244/308/404	160	300	20	3	25%	7%	102	+1.8	252/308/433	181	306	25	1	26%	7%	105	+1.4
✕Aledmys Díaz 2018 · MLB	27	51→58	48→55	43→45	47	253/304/401	148	279	16	8	16%	6%	98	+1.6	252/306/422	170	268	20	6	15%	6%	105	+2.1	252/313/418	165	272	19	3	15%	7%	102	+1.1
✕Luis Torrens 2023 · MLB	27	46→47	52→55	46→30	44	238/295/399	161	303	20	3	28%	7%	94	+1.3	232/286/372	140	298	15	4	26%	6%	83	+0.6	227/280/355	128	284	13	2	24%	6%	75	+0.0
✕Ryan Lavarnway 2016 · MLB	28	49→45	42→55	46→30	49	236/304/342	106	291	10	4	22%	8%	82	+0.5	227/291/334	107	289	10	3	24%	7%	76	+0.0	231/300/392	161	282	20	0	25%	7%	90	+0.4
✕Ronny Cedeno 2009 · MLB	26	54→57	44→45	46→50	46	262/306/377	115	307	11	10	19%	6%	92	+1.2	239/284/359	120	289	11	10	21%	6%	79	+0.3	248/295/360	112	308	7	7	21%	6%	76	+0.0
✕Matt Antonelli 2012 · AAA	27	49→52	46→45	44→50	50	241/307/378	136	285	13	9	20%	8%	93	+1.3	223/292/340	117	276	11	9	22%	8%	77	+0.1	170/258/241	71	212	6	3	22%	8%	36	-0.8
●Joshua Rodriguez 2012 · AAA	27	48→56	44→50	45→50	46	237/295/352	115	300	13	8	25%	7%	82	+0.5	241/299/362	121	311	11	7	25%	7%	85	+0.7	240/301/357	117	314	10	6	25%	7%	82	+0.4
✕Josmil Pinto 2016 · MLB	27	47→57	49→55	39→40	48	239/302/385	147	282	17	2	22%	8%	93	+1.3	222/271/359	137	287	16	5	28%	6%	73	-0.1	213/255/350	137	280	16	0	30%	5%	61	-0.5