Jeferson Morales
C St. Paul Saints| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | A+MIN | 200 | .262/.377/.452 | 6 | 6 | 78 | — | .206/.302/.337 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA/AAMIN | 431 | .289/.369/.453 | 10 | 6 | 84 | — | .233/.299/.371 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 314 | .257/.362/.408 | 7 | 4 | 87 | — | .223/.305/.328 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 28 | MLBMIN | 16 | .233/.304/.357 | 0 | 0 | 87 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ33% MLB | 29 | MLBMIN | 59 | .231/.302/.353 | 1 | 1 | 86 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | DSL Twins | — | 232 | 178 | 54 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 41 | 29 | 13 | 17 | 11 | 303 | 466 | 472 | 937 | 169 | 358 | 12 | 18 | 423 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Twins | — | 134 | 110 | 26 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 236 | 373 | 436 | 809 | 200 | 258 | 13 | 15 | 364 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 100 | 93 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 301 | 350 | 516 | 866 | 215 | 338 | 20 | 5 | 381 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 292 | 236 | 56 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 42 | 52 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 237 | 379 | 407 | 786 | 169 | 274 | 18 | 14 | 357 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 282 | 241 | 50 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 71 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 207 | 310 | 357 | 667 | 149 | 256 | 25 | 8 | 300 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 200 | 168 | 44 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 41 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 262 | 377 | 452 | 829 | 190 | 311 | 20 | 14 | 369 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 60 | 53 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 358 | 433 | 585 | 1.018 | 226 | 439 | 18 | 10 | 444 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 371 | 327 | 91 | 21 | 1 | 9 | 30 | 57 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 278 | 359 | 431 | 790 | 153 | 311 | 15 | 8 | 352 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 269 | 229 | 57 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 49 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 249 | 353 | 402 | 755 | 153 | 288 | 18 | 11 | 338 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | INTL | Leones del Caracas | — | 45 | 36 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 306 | 419 | 444 | 863 | 139 | 370 | 20 | 13 | 374 | 139 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 232 | 190 | 35 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 29 | 35 | 13 | 17 | 11 | 184 | 332 | 274 | 606 | 89 | 219 | 15 | 12 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Twins | — | 134 | 118 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 161 | 261 | 288 | 549 | 127 | 188 | 19 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 100 | 94 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 245 | 290 | 415 | 705 | 170 | 291 | 27 | 4 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 292 | 248 | 46 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 72 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 185 | 303 | 323 | 626 | 137 | 228 | 25 | 10 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 282 | 247 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 91 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 170 | 260 | 296 | 555 | 126 | 216 | 32 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 200 | 175 | 36 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 53 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 206 | 302 | 337 | 639 | 131 | 269 | 26 | 10 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 60 | 55 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 309 | 367 | 509 | 876 | 200 | 399 | 22 | 7 | 370 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 371 | 336 | 74 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 72 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 220 | 288 | 348 | 636 | 128 | 251 | 19 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 269 | 238 | 53 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 59 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 223 | 305 | 328 | 632 | 105 | 273 | 22 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 232 | 190 | 35 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 29 | 35 | 13 | 17 | 11 | 184 | 332 | 274 | 606 | 89 | 226 | 15 | 12 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Twins | — | 232 | 178 | 54 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 41 | 29 | 13 | 17 | 11 | 303 | 466 | 472 | 937 | 169 | 358 | 12 | 18 | 423 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Twins | — | 134 | 118 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 161 | 261 | 288 | 549 | 127 | 189 | 19 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK RAW | GCL Twins | — | 134 | 110 | 26 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 236 | 373 | 436 | 809 | 200 | 258 | 13 | 15 | 364 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 392 | 343 | 69 | 20 | 0 | 10 | 33 | 99 | 14 | 12 | 3 | 201 | 297 | 347 | 644 | 146 | 250 | 25 | 8 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 392 | 329 | 84 | 24 | 0 | 12 | 47 | 72 | 14 | 12 | 3 | 255 | 372 | 438 | 809 | 182 | 291 | 18 | 12 | 363 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 282 | 247 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 91 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 170 | 260 | 296 | 555 | 126 | 232 | 32 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ RAW | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 282 | 241 | 50 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 71 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 207 | 310 | 357 | 667 | 149 | 256 | 25 | 8 | 300 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 200 | 175 | 36 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 53 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 206 | 302 | 337 | 639 | 131 | 269 | 26 | 10 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ RAW | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 200 | 168 | 44 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 41 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 262 | 377 | 452 | 829 | 190 | 311 | 20 | 14 | 369 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 431 | 391 | 91 | 23 | 2 | 9 | 25 | 86 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 233 | 299 | 371 | 670 | 138 | 274 | 20 | 6 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 431 | 380 | 110 | 28 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 68 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 289 | 369 | 453 | 822 | 163 | 328 | 16 | 8 | 365 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 314 | 277 | 61 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 69 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 220 | 301 | 325 | 626 | 105 | 274 | 22 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 314 | 265 | 68 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 58 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 257 | 362 | 408 | 770 | 151 | 299 | 18 | 11 | 344 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 232 | 188 | 35 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 29 | 35 | 13 | 17 | 11 | 186 | 332 | 277 | 608 | 90 | 219 | 15 | 12 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Twins | — | 134 | 117 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 162 | 261 | 291 | 552 | 128 | 188 | 19 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 392 | 342 | 69 | 20 | 0 | 10 | 33 | 99 | 14 | 12 | 3 | 202 | 297 | 348 | 645 | 146 | 244 | 25 | 8 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 282 | 250 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 91 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 168 | 260 | 292 | 552 | 124 | 216 | 32 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 200 | 174 | 36 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 53 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 207 | 302 | 339 | 641 | 132 | 269 | 26 | 10 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 431 | 391 | 91 | 23 | 2 | 9 | 25 | 86 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 233 | 299 | 371 | 670 | 138 | 272 | 20 | 6 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 314 | 279 | 61 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 69 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 219 | 301 | 323 | 624 | 104 | 273 | 22 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 431 | 391 | 91 | 23 | 2 | 9 | 25 | 86 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 233 | 299 | 371 | 670 | 138 | 272 | 20 | 6 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 314 | 279 | 61 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 69 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 219 | 301 | 323 | 624 | 104 | 273 | 22 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIN | 10% | 319 | 286 | 67 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 71 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 232 | 304 | 356 | 660 | 124 | 286 | 22 | 7 | 297 | 87 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIN | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 304 | 357 | 661 | 124 | 286 | 25 | 6 | 297 | 87 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIN | 33% | 181 | 162 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 41 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 231 | 302 | 352 | 654 | 122 | 285 | 23 | 7 | 295 | 86 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIN | 33% | 59 | 54 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 231 | 302 | 353 | 655 | 122 | 285 | 22 | 7 | 295 | 86 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 59 | 54 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 288 | 333 | 621 | 111 | 275 | 22 | 7 | 295 | 75 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 595 | 132 | 33 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 143 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 222 | 288 | 333 | 620 | 111 | 274 | 22 | 7 | 295 | 75 | -11 | +2 | -5 | +12 | +14 | 1.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2321 | 2042 | 423 | 99 | 17 | 41 | 183 | 534 | 77 | 54 | 24 | 207 | 297 | 333 | 629 | 125 | 257 | 23 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | 0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 572 | 118 | 28 | 5 | 11 | 51 | 150 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 206 | 297 | 330 | 627 | 124 | 257 | 23 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -11 | +0 | -3 | +12 | +14 | 1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 269 PAwOBA .334 → .284 (−50)K% 18.2% → 22.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.22% | ÷0.989 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.78% | ÷1.022 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.97% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.56% | ÷0.944 | ×0.930 | ×0.982 | ×1.018 | 20.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.11% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×1.018 | 5.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.982 | ×1.018 | 1.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.253 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.90% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 89, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .334 → .284; ISO .153 → .114; BABIP .288 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAWichita Wind Surge · 371 PAwOBA .345 → .281 (−64)K% 15.4% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.36% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.82% | ÷0.963 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 5.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.96% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 2.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.091 | ×0.920 | ×0.956 | ×0.998 | 17.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.78% | ÷0.979 | ×0.840 | ×0.956 | ×0.998 | 6.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.37% | ÷1.126 | ×0.940 | ×0.956 | ×0.998 | 0.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.845 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.15% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 118, 2B 96, 3B 125, K 93, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .345 → .281; ISO .153 → .135; BABIP .311 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 60 PAwOBA .432 → .370 (−62)K% 18.3% → 22.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.33% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.67% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.81% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 22.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.996 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 14.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.043 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 2.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.039 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.66% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 109, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .432 → .370; ISO .226 → .187; BABIP .439 → .399. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 200 PAwOBA .362 → .284 (−78)K% 20.5% → 26.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.50% | ÷0.977 | ×1.270 | — | — | 26.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.50% | ÷0.966 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 9.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 1.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.47% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×1.004 | ×0.988 | 18.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.87% | ÷1.051 | ×0.810 | ×1.004 | ×0.988 | 6.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.57% | ÷0.994 | ×0.850 | ×1.004 | ×0.988 | 1.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.72% | ÷1.134 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.29% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 99, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .362 → .284; ISO .190 → .137; BABIP .311 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 282 PAwOBA .298 → .237 (−61)K% 25.2% → 32.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.18% | ÷0.993 | ×1.270 | — | — | 32.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.16% | ÷0.983 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 5.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.61% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 3.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 15.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.47% | ÷0.912 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 5.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.18% | ÷1.011 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.12% | ÷0.948 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.47% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 104, 2B 82, 3B 102, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .298 → .237; ISO .149 → .121; BABIP .256 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 292 PAwOBA .351 → .279 (−72)K% 17.8% → 24.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.81% | ÷0.979 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.38% | ÷0.976 | ×0.690 | — | — | 10.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.11% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 3.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.30% | ÷1.066 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 13.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.33% | ÷0.909 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | — | 8.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.937 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.80% | ÷0.908 | ×0.800 | — | — | 3.35% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 113, 2B 82, 3B 87, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .351 → .279; ISO .169 → .146; BABIP .274 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 100 PAwOBA .370 → .297 (−72)K% 20.0% → 27.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.992 | ×1.350 | — | — | 27.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.00% | ÷1.026 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 3.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 1.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.66% | ÷1.012 | ×0.910 | ×0.964 | ×1.012 | 21.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.85% | ÷0.976 | ×0.830 | ×0.964 | ×1.012 | 5.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×0.964 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.85% | ÷0.920 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 6.26% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .370 → .297; ISO .215 → .178; BABIP .338 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKGCL Twins · 134 PAwOBA .352 → .250 (−103)K% 13.4% → 19.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.43% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 19.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 8.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.99% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 10.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 5.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 2.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 2.53% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .352 → .250; ISO .200 → .146; BABIP .258 → .188. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .