Graysen Tarlow — OGILVIE

Graysen TarlowC Springfield Cardinals

Age 25 R/R 5'10" / 190 lbs AA HR -7%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2028

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.213 / .290 / .317

PA199

HR3

K%27

BB%8

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

35→35

PWR

30→30

SPD

43→43

EYE

51→51

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.9peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.6M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$13M	+$9M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	59	48	8	3	0	1	8	13	3	0	0	.167	.322	.292	.614	.125	.206	22	14	.284	76	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2024	23	A+	Peoria Chiefs	91	81	11	1	0	0	9	29	0	0	0	.136	.222	.148	.370	.012	.208	32	10	.179	-5	-11	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.7
2025	24	A+	3 teams	246	210	54	4	0	1	20	71	9	4	4	.257	.347	.290	.638	.033	.368	29	8	.287	78	-6	-1	+0	+4	+7	0.5
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	25	AA	Springfield Cardinals	40	34	6	1	0	1	4	14	2	1	0	.176	.300	.294	.594	.118	.263	35	10	.250	50	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
ROS	25	MLB	STL	159	141	30	5	1	3	14	45	3	3	1	.213	.297	.326	.624	.113	.285	28	9	.279	72	-5	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
TOT	25	MLB	STL	199	175	36	6	1	4	18	59	5	4	1	.206	.298	.320	.618	.114	.283	30	9	.273	67	-7	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB 11%	STL	275	243	52	9	1	5	25	68	5	4	1	.214	.300	.321	.621	.107	.275	25	9	.288	79	-7	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.7
2028	27	MLB 26%	STL	323	285	62	11	1	7	30	80	5	5	1	.218	.303	.337	.640	.119	.277	25	9	.291	81	-7	+1	+0	+6	+9	0.9
2029	28	MLB 38%	STL	353	311	67	12	1	7	33	87	6	5	1	.215	.303	.328	.631	.113	.277	25	9	.292	81	-7	+1	-1	+6	+10	0.9
2030	29	MLB 47%	STL	365	322	70	13	1	7	34	91	6	5	1	.217	.304	.329	.633	.112	.277	25	9	.290	80	-8	+1	-1	+7	+10	0.8
2031	30	MLB 56%	STL	371	328	70	13	1	7	34	94	6	5	1	.213	.299	.323	.622	.110	.275	25	9	.287	78	-9	+1	-2	+7	+11	0.7
2032	31	MLB 66%	STL	351	309	66	12	1	7	33	90	6	4	1	.214	.302	.327	.629	.113	.274	26	9	.283	75	-10	+0	-3	+6	+10	0.4
2033	32	MLB 76%	STL	326	288	60	11	1	6	30	86	5	3	0	.208	.294	.316	.610	.108	.272	26	9	.279	72	-10	+1	-4	+6	+9	0.2
2034	33	MLB 93%	STL	290	257	52	9	1	5	27	78	4	3	0	.202	.288	.304	.592	.101	.271	27	9	.274	68	-11	+1	-4	+5	+8	-0.1
2035	34	MLB	STL	244	216	43	7	1	4	22	68	4	2	0	.199	.285	.296	.581	.097	.269	28	9	.267	63	-10	+0	-5	+4	+7	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			3453	3039	645	110	10	60	319	900	62	43	11	.212	.300	.314	.614	.102	.278	26	9	.281	74	-103	+4	-20	+62	+98	4.2
/ 162G	—			650	572	122	21	2	11	60	169	12	8	2	.213	.301	.315	.616	.101	.280	26	9	.281	74	-19	+1	-4	+12	+18	0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	59	45	9	3	1	11	9	3	0	0	.200	.390	.333	.723	.133	.229	15	19	.345	122	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2024	23	A+	Peoria Chiefs	91	78	13	1	0	12	23	0	0	0	.167	.278	.179	.457	.013	.232	25	13	.225	31	-7	+0	—	—	+3	-0.5
2025	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	69	54	15	1	0	13	15	0	0	1	.278	.418	.296	.714	.019	.375	22	19	.334	114	+1	-0	—	—	+2	0.3
2025	24	A+	Peoria Chiefs	139	115	35	3	1	12	30	8	1	3	.304	.407	.357	.764	.052	.386	22	9	.347	124	+4	-1	—	—	+4	0.7
2025	24	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	38	31	5	1	0	5	7	1	3	0	.161	.297	.194	.491	.032	.200	18	13	.240	42	-2	+1	—	—	+1	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Graysen Tarlow (OGILVIE)	25	35	30	43	51	.213/.290/.317	.104	.286	3	3	27%	8%	71	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adam Weisenburger 2014 · AA	25	43	40	41→30	45	.208/.285/.299	.091	.281	7	4	27%	7%	64	-0.8	.217/.296/.306	.089	.280	6	4	23%	8%	70	-0.3	.212/.296/.290	.078	.266	5	2	20%	8%	65	-0.4
✕Nick Fortes 2022 · MLB	25	43	45	47→45	45	.214/.278/.334	.119	.252	13	7	21%	6%	70	-0.3	.223/.283/.346	.123	.253	15	8	18%	6%	76	+0.0	.217/.272/.326	.109	.242	13	6	16%	5%	62	-0.5
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA	25	39	43→45	43→45	46	.192/.280/.301	.108	.265	11	7	30%	9%	63	-0.8	.198/.277/.336	.138	.251	16	10	27%	7%	71	-0.3	.186/.266/.336	.150	.221	18	12	25%	7%	63	-0.5
✕Greg Cullen 2022 · AA	25	45→42	42→40	42→40	50	.217/.304/.324	.107	.280	10	4	25%	9%	79	+0.3	.236/.327/.346	.110	.320	11	6	27%	11%	94	+1.3	.236/.337/.336	.100	.321	11	5	27%	11%	93	+0.5
✕Jackson Brennan 2008 · A	25	44→42	42→45	47→50	48	.213/.305/.319	.106	.285	9	10	27%	8%	79	+0.3	.210/.298/.299	.089	.297	7	10	29%	9%	70	-0.3	.167/.282/.184	.017	.264	0	6	32%	12%	32	-0.6
✕Ryan Ortiz 2013 · AA	25	42	43→45	48→40	50	.205/.292/.314	.109	.274	11	5	28%	10%	72	-0.2	.199/.287/.296	.097	.278	9	4	29%	10%	65	-0.7	.187/.284/.271	.085	.264	7	0	29%	10%	54	-0.7
✕Wyatt Toregas 2008 · AA	25	45→38	42→45	41→40	44	.221/.272/.324	.103	.267	10	4	21%	6%	64	-0.8	.226/.279/.353	.127	.262	15	4	20%	6%	76	+0.0	.217/.271/.343	.126	.246	16	1	19%	5%	68	-0.2
✕Phil Avlas 2008 · AA	25	45	41→40	43→45	48	.220/.281/.316	.096	.267	9	7	21%	7%	66	-0.6	.222/.271/.304	.082	.271	6	9	20%	6%	58	-1.2	.240/.276/.308	.068	.284	4	8	17%	5%	60	-0.4
✕Carlos Ramirez 2013 · AA	25	43	41→40	47→40	45	.209/.278/.308	.098	.265	9	5	24%	7%	63	-0.8	.206/.272/.328	.122	.256	12	7	24%	6%	66	-0.6	.173/.241/.339	.165	.197	19	3	24%	6%	53	-0.5
✕Dan Butler 2012 · AA	25	45→39	43→45	48→40	47	.220/.290/.337	.117	.273	10	4	23%	7%	76	+0.0	.214/.280/.337	.123	.263	12	3	23%	7%	72	-0.2	.214/.284/.310	.095	.269	9	0	22%	8%	63	-0.3
✕Dusty Brown 2007 · AA	25	42	43→45	44→30	43	.208/.262/.315	.107	.268	11	5	26%	6%	57	-1.2	.224/.282/.343	.119	.299	12	3	28%	7%	73	-0.1	.229/.292/.341	.112	.309	12	0	28%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Phil Clarke 2023 · AA	25	45	41→40	44→45	50	.219/.298/.313	.094	.268	8	4	21%	8%	73	-0.1	.228/.309/.320	.092	.268	9	8	17%	9%	80	+0.4	.233/.317/.316	.083	.266	8	7	15%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Cody Cipriano 2010 · AA	25	44→48	43→45	48→45	46	.214/.288/.333	.118	.293	9	9	28%	8%	74	-0.1	.221/.286/.329	.108	.319	9	9	31%	7%	72	-0.2	.228/.297/.329	.100	.329	7	7	30%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Jeremy Lucas 2016 · AA	25	45→43	43→45	43→30	49	.223/.289/.338	.114	.272	11	3	22%	8%	75	-0.0	.220/.288/.340	.120	.278	12	4	24%	7%	76	+0.0	.219/.294/.360	.142	.270	16	1	24%	8%	81	+0.3
✕Jake Lemmerman 2014 · AA	25	44→50	42→45	51→45	46	.213/.290/.322	.110	.290	10	10	28%	8%	72	-0.2	.194/.266/.303	.109	.276	10	9	31%	8%	57	-1.2	.146/.218/.245	.099	.206	10	4	33%	8%	20	-1.6
✕Zach Humphreys 2023 · AA	25	45	44→40	49→50	50	.221/.302/.334	.113	.296	12	12	28%	10%	80	+0.4	.207/.282/.302	.095	.286	8	15	28%	9%	63	-0.8	.187/.263/.265	.077	.261	5	16	28%	9%	44	-0.9
✕Matt Scheffler 2023 · AA	25	45	40	51→50	48	.214/.297/.308	.094	.299	8	11	29%	9%	72	-0.2	.203/.288/.278	.075	.288	5	13	29%	9%	60	-1.0	.167/.260/.209	.042	.244	2	14	29%	8%	30	-1.4
✕Chadd Krist 2015 · A	25	40	41→40	44→45	43	.198/.262/.299	.100	.269	8	6	29%	7%	53	-1.5	.191/.246/.291	.100	.279	10	6	33%	6%	45	-2.1	.147/.198/.242	.094	.211	11	0	36%	5%	8	-1.4
✕Colt Sedbrook 2010 · AA	25	45→43	39→30	51→50	48	.213/.304/.293	.080	.273	6	14	23%	8%	72	-0.2	.204/.300/.275	.071	.261	4	13	22%	8%	66	-0.6	.178/.291/.223	.045	.231	2	12	21%	9%	48	-1.1
✕Chris Denove 2008 · A	25	41	38→40	47→40	43	.197/.259/.276	.079	.263	6	5	26%	6%	46	-2.0	.229/.285/.319	.090	.287	6	4	21%	6%	69	-0.4	.245/.301/.340	.096	.298	7	3	19%	6%	79	+0.1

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)