Graysen Tarlow — OGILVIE

Graysen TarlowC Springfield Cardinals

Age 25 R/R 5'10" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION131 act + 87 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .286 / .272

PA87

HR1

K%30

BB%9

BABIP278

ISO78

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 29 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT29

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE52

scouting grade only

SPEED46

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	59	48	8	3	0	1	8	14	3	0	0	167	322	292	614	125	212	24	14	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	59	45	9	3	0	1	11	9	3	0	0	200	390	333	723	133	229	15	19	345	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	91	80	11	1	0	0	10	31	0	0	0	138	233	150	383	12	220	34	11	180	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	91	78	13	1	0	0	12	23	0	0	0	167	278	179	457	13	232	25	13	225	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+	3 teams	—	246	210	52	4	0	1	20	76	9	4	4	248	339	281	620	33	367	31	8	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+	3 teams	—	246	200	55	5	0	1	30	52	9	4	4	275	393	315	708	40	353	21	12	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AA	STL	—	131	114	20	4	0	4	11	45	4	4	0	175	271	316	587	140	239	34	8	256	54	-7	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.0
YTD	25	AA	STL	—	131	109	23	5	0	4	16	35	4	4	0	211	333	367	700	156	264	27	12	317	101	+0	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.7
ROS	25	AA	STL	2%	87	77	15	3	0	1	8	26	2	2	0	194	286	272	558	78	266	30	9	257	55	-4	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.0
ROS	25	MLB	STL	2%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						266	50	0	242	43	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	25	AA	STL	—	133	116	20	4	0	4	11	46	4	4	0	172	267	310	578	138	235	35	8	256	54	-7	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.0
TOT	25	AA	STL	—	218	191	35	7	0	5	19	71	6	6	0	183	277	298	575	115	256	33	9	256	54	-11	+1	+0	+4	+6	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	STL	31%	277	245	48	9	1	4	25	81	5	5	1	196	284	290	573	94	270	29	9	265	61	-12	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.1
2028	27	MLB	STL	42%	324	286	56	10	1	5	29	93	6	5	2	196	283	290	574	94	272	29	9	269	64	-13	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.2
2029	28	MLB	STL	48%	354	313	62	11	1	6	32	101	6	6	2	198	285	297	582	99	272	29	9	271	66	-14	+0	-1	+6	+10	0.2
2030	29	MLB	STL	49%	365	323	65	12	1	6	33	104	6	5	2	201	287	300	588	99	272	28	9	271	65	-14	+0	-1	+7	+10	0.1
2031	30	MLB	STL	50%	372	329	65	12	1	6	34	107	6	5	1	198	285	295	579	97	270	29	9	268	63	-16	+1	-2	+7	+11	0.0
2027	26	MLB	STL	31%	86	76	15	3	0	1	8	25	2	1	0	197	291	276	567	79	270	29	9	251	50	-5	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.1
2028	27	MLB	STL	42%	136	121	23	4	0	2	12	39	2	2	1	190	274	273	547	83	271	29	9	256	54	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2029	28	MLB	STL	48%	169	149	30	5	1	3	15	48	3	3	1	201	287	309	596	107	272	28	9	258	56	-8	+0	-0	+3	+5	-0.1
2030	29	MLB	STL	49%	180	159	32	6	1	3	16	52	3	3	1	201	287	308	595	107	272	29	9	258	55	-9	+0	-1	+3	+5	-0.1
2031	30	MLB	STL	50%	187	165	32	6	0	3	17	54	3	2	1	194	281	285	566	91	270	29	9	255	53	-10	+0	-1	+3	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	760	672	132	24	2	12	68	219	13	11	4	196	283	292	575	95	270	29	9	256	54	-39	+1	-2	+14	+22	-0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	113	21	2	10	58	187	11	9	3	197	283	292	575	96	270	29	9	256	54	-34	+1	-2	+12	+18	-0.5
Career	—			—	2175	1911	382	65	5	30	199	633	43	32	12	200	290	286	576	86	278	29	9	267	62	-93	+2	-4	+39	+62	0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	113	19	1	9	59	189	13	10	4	198	288	282	570	84	275	29	9	267	62	-28	+0	-1	+12	+18	0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	59	45	9	3	1	11	9	3	0	0	200	390	333	723	133	229	15	19	345	122	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2024	23	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	91	78	13	1	0	12	23	0	0	0	167	278	179	457	13	232	25	13	225	31	-7	+0	—	—	+3	-0.5
2025	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	69	54	15	1	0	13	15	0	0	1	278	418	296	714	19	375	22	19	334	114	+1	-0	—	—	+2	0.3
2025	24	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	139	115	35	3	1	12	30	8	1	3	304	407	357	764	52	386	22	9	347	124	+4	-1	—	—	+4	0.7
2025	24	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	38	31	5	1	0	5	7	1	3	0	161	297	194	491	32	200	18	13	240	42	-2	+1	—	—	+1	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	763	13	11	200	284	300	+14	+8	0.4	0.4
	/162	664	11	10	200	284	300	+11.9	+7.0	0.4	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Graysen Tarlow (OGILVIE)	25	29	35	46	52	183/277/298	115	256	5	6	33%	9%	54	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Anthony Mulrine 2023 · AAA	25	36	37→40	45→40	39	177/253/247	71	262	5	5	32%	6%	38	-2.6	192/271/279	87	273	7	6	30%	7%	53	-1.5	147/251/218	70	204	5	0	28%	8%	28	-0.7
✕Connor Justus 2021 · AA	26	35→37	37→40	43→45	42	172/248/244	72	250	5	8	31%	7%	35	-2.8	192/256/268	76	294	6	7	34%	7%	43	-2.2	166/232/217	51	261	3	3	35%	7%	17	-2.1
✕Brian Ward 2011 · A	25	40	36→40	43→45	48	192/273/255	63	265	4	6	27%	9%	48	-1.9	220/287/306	86	274	6	8	20%	8%	66	-0.6	227/292/315	88	275	6	8	19%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Stephen McGee 2017 · AAA	26	40	38→40	44→30	45	193/269/273	80	275	6	4	30%	8%	50	-1.7	204/290/316	112	313	11	4	35%	10%	71	-0.3	189/289/303	113	293	12	0	36%	12%	63	-0.3
✕Chris Givin 2022 · AA	25	38	38→30	50→45	42	186/246/261	75	259	6	6	30%	7%	37	-2.6	202/265/279	77	274	6	7	26%	7%	50	-1.8	195/263/252	57	256	4	5	24%	8%	40	-1.1
✕Nick Meyer 2022 · AAA	25	42	38→40	47→50	43	204/265/279	75	266	7	12	25%	6%	50	-1.7	216/287/315	99	282	11	15	26%	8%	69	-0.4	204/282/295	91	265	12	18	26%	9%	58	-0.5
✕Chase Pinder 2021 · AA	25	40	40→45	40→45	44	192/269/276	84	279	8	5	32%	8%	51	-1.7	218/306/353	135	287	14	8	27%	10%	88	+0.9	224/323/376	152	290	16	11	26%	12%	98	+0.8
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA	25	38	43→45	42→45	46	189/279/295	106	260	11	6	30%	9%	62	-0.9	198/275/331	133	251	15	10	27%	7%	69	-0.4	185/264/327	142	224	17	12	25%	7%	61	-0.5
✕Stuart Turner 2017 · AA	25	41	39→40	46→45	44	200/261/282	82	264	6	7	26%	7%	49	-1.8	186/240/258	72	264	6	6	30%	6%	33	-2.9	147/193/189	42	215	4	1	33%	5%	-7	-1.2
✕Eric Yang 2023 · AAA	25	38	39→40	47→40	43	183/265/268	86	275	7	6	34%	8%	48	-1.9	196/271/271	75	301	5	6	34%	8%	51	-1.7	178/263/236	57	284	5	1	35%	8%	36	-0.6
✕Chadd Krist 2015 · A	25	39	41→40	44→45	42	192/253/287	94	265	8	6	30%	6%	47	-1.9	193/247/294	101	286	10	6	34%	6%	46	-2.0	150/200/249	98	218	12	0	36%	5%	11	-1.4
✕JJ Schwarz 2021 · A	25	38	40→50	48→30	43	190/254/280	90	264	9	6	30%	7%	46	-2.0	212/278/349	137	295	17	3	32%	8%	74	-0.1	203/274/342	139	279	18	1	32%	9%	67	-0.3
✕Adam Weisenburger 2013 · AA	24	42	36→40	43→30	45	197/271/262	65	269	3	5	26%	7%	49	-1.8	214/294/304	90	284	7	4	25%	8%	69	-0.4	213/299/301	87	276	6	2	23%	8%	69	-0.2
✕Nick Vickerson 2014 · A	25	36	42→40	49→50	47	183/268/285	102	256	10	13	31%	9%	54	-1.4	203/302/300	97	289	8	11	29%	11%	72	-0.2	190/312/271	81	272	7	11	29%	13%	66	-0.4
✕Robbie Shields 2013 · A	25	42→36	39→40	47→45	44	205/260/294	89	264	6	8	24%	6%	51	-1.7	196/249/271	75	276	4	7	28%	6%	40	-2.4	175/225/238	62	250	2	5	29%	6%	17	-2.4
✕Gerardo Bustamante 2011 · AAA	25	41	40→45	50	44	201/272/294	93	265	8	9	26%	7%	57	-1.2	222/267/338	116	273	14	13	24%	5%	66	-0.6	226/262/325	99	269	14	12	22%	4%	56	-0.4
✕Cody Bohanek 2019 · AAA	24	39→36	38→40	47→50	41	189/267/262	73	276	7	10	32%	7%	48	-1.9	173/266/261	88	295	8	12	40%	8%	48	-1.9	147/253/237	90	268	8	16	43%	8%	36	-1.6
✕Austin Rei 2019 · AA	25	38	40	40	40	187/261/280	94	277	7	4	33%	7%	50	-1.8	192/262/285	93	308	8	7	37%	7%	51	-1.7	123/204/184	61	206	5	0	40%	8%	-2	-1.0
✕Chris Denove 2008 · A	25	40	38→40	47→40	42	196/254/274	78	267	6	5	28%	6%	44	-2.1	232/288/322	90	290	6	4	21%	6%	70	-0.3	244/302/337	93	298	7	3	19%	6%	78	+0.1
✕Matt Pagnozzi 2008 · AAA	25	38	38→45	45→40	37	186/238/265	79	266	5	4	31%	5%	34	-2.8	207/260/287	80	289	7	4	29%	6%	49	-1.8	208/275/286	79	292	6	0	29%	7%	53	-0.7