Maverick Handley
C Gwinnett Stripers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAABAL | 330 | .202/.330/.287 | 3 | 5 | 61 | — | .196/.293/.263 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAABAL | 154 | .258/.375/.367 | 1 | 3 | 84 | — | .243/.322/.338 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLBBAL | 47 | .073/.136/.073 | 0 | 0 | -44 | -0.3 | |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA/AA/A+ATL | 142 | .232/.381/.330 | 2 | 3 | 69 | — | .214/.331/.282 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBATL | 12 | .187/.281/.261 | 0 | 0 | 58 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 30 | MLBATL | 49 | .187/.280/.260 | 0 | 1 | 57 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 234 | 199 | 40 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 71 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 201 | 318 | 337 | 654 | 136 | 282 | 30 | 12 | 302 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 308 | 259 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 36 | 64 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 236 | 353 | 417 | 770 | 181 | 270 | 21 | 12 | 346 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 264 | 216 | 51 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 38 | 65 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 236 | 373 | 329 | 701 | 93 | 320 | 25 | 14 | 330 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 17 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 267 | 353 | 533 | 886 | 267 | 500 | 47 | 12 | 386 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 330 | 272 | 55 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 44 | 74 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 202 | 330 | 287 | 617 | 85 | 260 | 22 | 13 | 288 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 47 | 41 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 73 | 136 | 73 | 210 | 125 | 38 | 4 | 103 | -44 | -8 | +0 | +1 | +4 | +1 | -0.3 | |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 154 | 128 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 32 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 258 | 375 | 367 | 742 | 109 | 333 | 21 | 15 | 337 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 88 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 221 | 398 | 338 | 736 | 118 | 255 | 17 | 18 | 350 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | — | 39 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 297 | 273 | 570 | 61 | 333 | 33 | 8 | 254 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | A+ | Rome Emperors | — | 15 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 364 | 500 | 455 | 955 | 91 | 500 | 27 | 7 | 411 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 47 | 41 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 73 | 136 | 73 | 210 | 125 | 38 | 4 | 103 | -44 | -8 | +0 | +1 | +4 | +1 | -0.3 | |||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 234 | 206 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 96 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 155 | 253 | 262 | 515 | 107 | 247 | 41 | 9 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 308 | 269 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 79 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 201 | 297 | 323 | 621 | 123 | 249 | 26 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 264 | 225 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 79 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 196 | 312 | 262 | 574 | 67 | 285 | 30 | 11 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 17 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 294 | 500 | 794 | 250 | 445 | 59 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 330 | 285 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 83 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 196 | 293 | 263 | 556 | 67 | 255 | 25 | 9 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 47 | 41 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 73 | 136 | 73 | 210 | 125 | 38 | 4 | 103 | -44 | -8 | +0 | +1 | +4 | +1 | -0.3 | |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 154 | 136 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 243 | 322 | 338 | 661 | 96 | 326 | 26 | 10 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 88 | 73 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 192 | 330 | 260 | 590 | 68 | 228 | 20 | 12 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | Columbus Clingstones | — | 39 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 270 | 265 | 535 | 59 | 296 | 41 | 5 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | A+ MLE | Rome Emperors | — | 15 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 364 | 500 | 455 | 955 | 91 | 407 | 33 | 7 | 348 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 234 | 206 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 96 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 155 | 253 | 262 | 515 | 107 | 262 | 41 | 9 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ RAW | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 234 | 199 | 40 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 71 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 201 | 318 | 337 | 654 | 136 | 282 | 30 | 12 | 302 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 308 | 269 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 79 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 201 | 297 | 323 | 621 | 123 | 255 | 26 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | Bowie Baysox | — | 308 | 259 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 36 | 64 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 236 | 353 | 417 | 770 | 181 | 270 | 21 | 12 | 346 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 281 | 241 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 89 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 191 | 304 | 257 | 561 | 66 | 289 | 32 | 11 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 281 | 231 | 55 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 40 | 73 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 238 | 371 | 342 | 713 | 104 | 327 | 26 | 14 | 333 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 330 | 285 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 83 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 196 | 293 | 263 | 556 | 67 | 263 | 25 | 9 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA RAW | Norfolk Tides | — | 330 | 272 | 55 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 44 | 74 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 202 | 330 | 287 | 617 | 85 | 260 | 22 | 13 | 288 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 201 | 177 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 58 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 203 | 281 | 277 | 557 | 73 | 292 | 29 | 8 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 201 | 169 | 36 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 50 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 213 | 321 | 296 | 617 | 83 | 292 | 25 | 12 | 282 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 142 | 119 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 39 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 193 | 309 | 252 | 561 | 59 | 272 | 27 | 9 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 142 | 112 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 32 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 232 | 381 | 330 | 712 | 98 | 300 | 23 | 14 | 330 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 234 | 205 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 96 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 156 | 253 | 263 | 517 | 107 | 247 | 41 | 9 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 308 | 268 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 79 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 201 | 297 | 325 | 622 | 123 | 249 | 26 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 281 | 240 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 89 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 192 | 304 | 258 | 562 | 67 | 295 | 32 | 11 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 330 | 288 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 83 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 194 | 293 | 260 | 554 | 66 | 255 | 25 | 9 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 201 | 180 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 58 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 281 | 272 | 553 | 72 | 279 | 29 | 8 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 142 | 121 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 39 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 190 | 309 | 248 | 557 | 58 | 266 | 27 | 9 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 330 | 288 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 83 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 194 | 293 | 260 | 554 | 66 | 255 | 25 | 9 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 201 | 180 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 58 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 281 | 272 | 553 | 72 | 279 | 29 | 8 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 142 | 121 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 39 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 190 | 309 | 248 | 557 | 58 | 266 | 27 | 9 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | ATL | 10% | 200 | 175 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 52 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 187 | 281 | 261 | 542 | 74 | 253 | 26 | 9 | 254 | 58 | -10 | +0 | -0 | +4 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | ATL | 10% | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 187 | 281 | 261 | 542 | 74 | 253 | 25 | 8 | 254 | 58 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | ATL | 27% | 179 | 157 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 47 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 187 | 280 | 260 | 540 | 74 | 253 | 26 | 9 | 253 | 57 | -9 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +4 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | ATL | 27% | 49 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 187 | 280 | 260 | 540 | 74 | 253 | 27 | 8 | 253 | 57 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 96 | 85 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 129 | 204 | 153 | 357 | 24 | 200 | 32 | 6 | 180 | 60 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +2 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 576 | 75 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 210 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 130 | 207 | 155 | 361 | 24 | 201 | 32 | 6 | 180 | 60 | -71 | +1 | +1 | +30 | +14 | -2.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1799 | 1563 | 298 | 56 | 7 | 20 | 164 | 523 | 51 | 41 | 13 | 191 | 289 | 274 | 562 | 83 | 269 | 29 | 9 | 257 | 60 | -23 | +0 | -2 | +9 | +8 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 565 | 108 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 59 | 189 | 18 | 15 | 5 | 191 | 288 | 274 | 562 | 83 | 270 | 29 | 9 | 257 | 60 | -43 | +0 | -3 | +17 | +14 | -1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 88 PAwOBA .342 → .280 (−63)K% 17.0% → 20.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.05% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 12.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.55% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 4.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.999 | ×0.992 | 19.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×0.992 | 3.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 2.62% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .342 → .280; ISO .118 → .089; BABIP .255 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAColumbus Clingstones · 39 PAwOBA .255 → .215 (−40)K% 33.3% → 40.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 5.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.56% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 2.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 22.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.968 | 8.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .255 → .215; ISO .061 → .054; BABIP .333 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Rome Emperors · 15 PAwOBA .430 → .348 (−82)K% 26.7% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 34.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.948 | 3.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 13.33% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.948 | 9.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 42.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.948 | 35.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.948 | 10.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 22.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .430 → .348; ISO .091 → .074; BABIP .500 → .407. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 154 PAwOBA .331 → .292 (−39)K% 20.8% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.78% | ÷0.967 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.94% | ÷1.063 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 9.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.96% | ÷0.959 | ×0.930 | ×1.030 | ×1.003 | 23.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.29% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | ×1.030 | ×1.003 | 6.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.08% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.030 | ×1.003 | 2.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.04% | ÷0.945 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.77% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 92, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .331 → .292; ISO .109 → .103; BABIP .333 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 330 PAwOBA .286 → .258 (−28)K% 22.4% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.42% | ÷1.070 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.33% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 9.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.42% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.70% | ÷0.962 | ×0.930 | ×1.033 | ×1.018 | 20.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.06% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | ×1.033 | ×1.018 | 5.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.51% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.033 | ×1.018 | 0.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.52% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.08% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 92, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 114, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .286 → .258; ISO .085 → .074; BABIP .260 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAANorfolk Tides · 264 PAwOBA .322 → .266 (−56)K% 24.6% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.62% | ÷0.980 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.39% | ÷0.948 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 10.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.41% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 3.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.83% | ÷1.019 | ×0.930 | ×0.971 | ×1.033 | 23.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.30% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | ×0.971 | ×1.033 | 4.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.971 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.65% | ÷0.995 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.92% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 96, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .322 → .266; ISO .093 → .069; BABIP .320 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AABowie Baysox · 17 PAwOBA .376 → .253 (−123)K% 47.1% → 58.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 47.06% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 58.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 8.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷0.965 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.998 | 28.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.046 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 11.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.998 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.208 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 9.21% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 93, 2B 109, 3B 100, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .376 → .253; ISO .267 → .150; BABIP .500 → .445. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AABowie Baysox · 308 PAwOBA .338 → .276 (−62)K% 20.8% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.78% | ÷0.992 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.69% | ÷0.998 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.57% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 3.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.97% | ÷0.995 | ×0.970 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 18.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.15% | ÷1.055 | ×0.860 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 5.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.51% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 0.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.64% | ÷1.170 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 3.81% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 99, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .338 → .276; ISO .181 → .131; BABIP .270 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).