Mike Miller
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 27 | AAAPawtucket Red… | 326 | .261/.347/.339 | 3 | 4 | 75 | — | .247/.315/.309 |
| 2018 | 28 | AAAPawtucket Red… | 361 | .284/.351/.359 | 4 | 10 | 63 | — | .248/.295/.302 |
| 2019 | 29 | AAAWSH | 312 | .251/.324/.326 | 3 | 4 | 48 | — | .216/.262/.278 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 23 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 53 | 45 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 356 | 442 | 489 | 931 | 133 | 400 | 9 | 9 | 410 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 101 | 93 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 301 | 356 | 441 | 797 | 140 | 329 | 14 | 6 | 357 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 216 | 192 | 59 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 25 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 307 | 367 | 349 | 716 | 42 | 353 | 12 | 7 | 320 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 268 | 247 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 34 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 219 | 261 | 304 | 564 | 85 | 239 | 13 | 5 | 249 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 183 | 165 | 45 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 273 | 326 | 370 | 696 | 97 | 301 | 11 | 6 | 305 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 349 | 312 | 71 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 40 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 228 | 295 | 285 | 581 | 58 | 256 | 11 | 8 | 264 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 26 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 280 | 304 | 584 | 87 | 217 | 4 | 8 | 257 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 326 | 280 | 73 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 52 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 261 | 347 | 339 | 686 | 79 | 307 | 16 | 9 | 308 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 361 | 320 | 91 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 53 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 284 | 351 | 359 | 711 | 75 | 325 | 15 | 8 | 318 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 312 | 279 | 70 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 46 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 251 | 324 | 326 | 650 | 75 | 289 | 15 | 9 | 296 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 53 | 47 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 277 | 346 | 362 | 708 | 85 | 334 | 13 | 6 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 101 | 95 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 274 | 317 | 368 | 685 | 95 | 318 | 17 | 4 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 216 | 198 | 56 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 283 | 324 | 318 | 642 | 35 | 331 | 17 | 4 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 268 | 251 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 43 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 215 | 245 | 299 | 544 | 84 | 236 | 16 | 4 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 183 | 169 | 45 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 266 | 303 | 355 | 658 | 89 | 291 | 14 | 4 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 349 | 321 | 71 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 49 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 221 | 269 | 274 | 543 | 53 | 252 | 14 | 5 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 26 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 208 | 240 | 292 | 532 | 83 | 193 | 4 | 4 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 326 | 288 | 71 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 63 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 247 | 315 | 309 | 624 | 62 | 296 | 19 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 361 | 331 | 82 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 64 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 248 | 295 | 302 | 597 | 54 | 285 | 18 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 312 | 291 | 63 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 55 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 216 | 262 | 278 | 540 | 62 | 252 | 18 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 53 | 47 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 277 | 346 | 362 | 708 | 85 | 325 | 13 | 6 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 53 | 45 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 356 | 442 | 489 | 931 | 133 | 400 | 9 | 9 | 410 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 317 | 293 | 82 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 53 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 280 | 322 | 334 | 656 | 55 | 336 | 17 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 317 | 285 | 87 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 39 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 305 | 363 | 379 | 742 | 74 | 346 | 12 | 7 | 332 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 451 | 420 | 98 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 69 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 233 | 267 | 312 | 578 | 79 | 268 | 15 | 4 | 250 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 451 | 412 | 99 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 55 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 240 | 287 | 330 | 617 | 90 | 265 | 12 | 6 | 272 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 375 | 344 | 76 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 50 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 221 | 270 | 276 | 546 | 55 | 253 | 13 | 5 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 375 | 335 | 76 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 41 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 227 | 294 | 287 | 581 | 60 | 253 | 11 | 8 | 263 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 326 | 288 | 71 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 63 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 247 | 315 | 309 | 624 | 62 | 305 | 19 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA RAW | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 326 | 280 | 73 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 52 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 261 | 347 | 339 | 686 | 79 | 307 | 16 | 9 | 308 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 361 | 331 | 82 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 64 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 248 | 295 | 302 | 597 | 54 | 294 | 18 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA RAW | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 361 | 320 | 91 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 53 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 284 | 351 | 359 | 711 | 75 | 325 | 15 | 8 | 318 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 312 | 291 | 63 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 55 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 216 | 262 | 278 | 540 | 62 | 255 | 18 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA RAW | Rochester Red Wings | — | 312 | 279 | 70 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 46 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 251 | 324 | 326 | 650 | 75 | 289 | 15 | 9 | 296 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 53 | 48 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 271 | 346 | 354 | 700 | 83 | 334 | 13 | 6 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 317 | 296 | 82 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 53 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 277 | 322 | 331 | 653 | 54 | 327 | 17 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 451 | 429 | 98 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 69 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 228 | 267 | 305 | 572 | 77 | 258 | 15 | 4 | 250 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 375 | 349 | 76 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 50 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 218 | 270 | 272 | 542 | 54 | 248 | 13 | 5 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 326 | 294 | 71 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 63 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 241 | 315 | 303 | 618 | 61 | 296 | 19 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 361 | 336 | 82 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 64 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 244 | 295 | 298 | 592 | 54 | 285 | 18 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 312 | 291 | 63 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 55 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 216 | 262 | 278 | 540 | 62 | 252 | 18 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2195 | 2014 | 485 | 74 | 5 | 14 | 111 | 361 | 23 | 56 | 29 | 241 | 288 | 303 | 592 | 63 | 284 | 16 | 5 | 260 | 62 | -99 | -0 | +0 | +8 | +48 | -4.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 596 | 143 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 107 | 7 | 17 | 9 | 240 | 288 | 300 | 588 | 60 | 283 | 16 | 5 | 260 | 62 | -29 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAARochester Red Wings · 312 PAwOBA .289 → .239 (−51)K% 14.7% → 17.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.74% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.97% | ÷1.095 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 5.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.32% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.61% | ÷0.982 | ×0.930 | ×0.979 | ×0.972 | 21.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.15% | ÷1.063 | ×0.830 | ×0.979 | ×0.972 | 3.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.979 | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.29% | ÷0.958 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.972 | 1.10% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 96, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 100, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .289 → .239; ISO .075 → .061; BABIP .289 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 361 PAwOBA .314 → .261 (−53)K% 14.7% → 17.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.68% | ÷0.994 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.31% | ÷1.082 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 5.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.83% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.987 | ×0.982 | 25.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.49% | ÷1.067 | ×0.830 | ×0.987 | ×0.982 | 3.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.987 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.50% | ÷1.342 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.982 | 0.92% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 168, 1B 100, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 99, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .314 → .261; ISO .075 → .053; BABIP .325 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 326 PAwOBA .304 → .279 (−24)K% 16.0% → 19.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.95% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.20% | ÷0.937 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 6.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.15% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 2.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.44% | ÷0.987 | ×0.930 | ×1.047 | ×0.992 | 24.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.82% | ÷0.954 | ×0.830 | ×1.047 | ×0.992 | 4.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.047 | ×0.992 | 0.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.106 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 0.99% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 97, 2B 91, 3B 100, K 97, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.
Result: wOBA .304 → .279; ISO .079 → .069; BABIP .307 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 349 PAwOBA .259 → .242 (−17)K% 11.5% → 14.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.46% | ÷0.979 | ×1.200 | — | — | 14.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.74% | ÷1.007 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.86% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.59% | ÷0.957 | ×0.930 | ×1.022 | ×1.003 | 20.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.78% | ÷0.923 | ×0.830 | ×1.022 | ×1.003 | 4.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.37% | ÷0.912 | ×0.970 | ×1.022 | ×1.003 | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.37% | ÷0.994 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 0.31% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 91, 2B 85, 3B 82, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .259 → .242; ISO .058 → .055; BABIP .256 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 26 PAwOBA .260 → .228 (−32)K% 3.8% → 4.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 3.85% | ÷0.985 | ×1.220 | — | — | 4.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷1.050 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 5.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.64% | ÷1.040 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.978 | 12.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.997 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 7.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.031 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.371 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 174, 1B 108, 2B 99, 3B 106, K 97, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .260 → .228; ISO .087 → .078; BABIP .217 → .193. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 268 PAwOBA .245 → .231 (−14)K% 12.7% → 15.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.69% | ÷0.956 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.22% | ÷0.996 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 3.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.78% | ÷0.989 | ×0.930 | ×1.028 | ×1.018 | 18.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.69% | ÷0.867 | ×0.830 | ×1.028 | ×1.018 | 4.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.47% | ÷1.012 | ×0.970 | ×1.028 | ×1.018 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.41% | ÷1.012 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 1.19% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 98, 2B 73, 3B 102, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .245 → .231; ISO .085 → .080; BABIP .239 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 183 PAwOBA .302 → .279 (−23)K% 11.5% → 14.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.48% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.01% | ÷1.067 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 3.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.09% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.92% | ÷0.970 | ×0.970 | ×1.019 | ×0.988 | 23.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.026 | ×0.860 | ×1.019 | ×0.988 | 5.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.39% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.019 | ×0.988 | 1.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.69% | ÷0.994 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.54% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 94, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 97, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .302 → .279; ISO .097 → .083; BABIP .301 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Salem Red Sox · 216 PAwOBA .312 → .277 (−35)K% 11.6% → 16.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.57% | ÷0.998 | ×1.420 | — | — | 16.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.94% | ÷1.031 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 4.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.39% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 1.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.54% | ÷1.015 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 29.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.79% | ÷0.997 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 4.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.025 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 103, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .312 → .277; ISO .042 → .036; BABIP .353 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).