Jason Delay

C Worcester Red Sox

Age 32 R/R 5'11" / 200 lbs AAA HR -5%K -4% Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	AAAPIT	171	.287/.355/.360	1	1	62	—	.237/.296/.295
2024	29	MLBPIT	19	.200/.333/.400	0	0	92	0.4
2025	30	AAA/AAATL	251	.200/.259/.257	1	1	13	—	.168/.211/.210
2026	31	AAABOS	281	.228/.335/.359	3	1	51	—	.185/.265/.286
2027PROJ10% MLB	32	MLBBOS	19	.221/.286/.327	0	0	69	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	33	MLBBOS	42	.213/.278/.310	0	0	62	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.000First FA2028

2027Arb-3$0.9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2024

Bat Spd26

Speed13

Barrel%10

xwOBA10

Avg EV10

CompsAlberto Castillo (age 32) · Michel Hernandez (age 32) · Carlos Maldonado (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .286 / .327

PA19

HR0

K%26

BB%5

BABIP281

ISO56

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT45

xAVG

100.205

POWER25

Barrel%

102.5

Avg EV

1084.3

Bat Spd

2668.8

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

1325.7

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2022

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	22	ROK	Bristol Pirates	—	128	107	27	5	0	1	13	13	8	0	0	252	375	327	702	75	280	10	10	332	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+	Bradenton Marauders	—	251	219	54	4	1	2	21	51	5	2	0	247	325	301	627	55	311	20	8	286	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	Altoona Curve	—	252	231	54	12	1	8	13	63	5	1	0	234	289	398	687	165	282	25	5	303	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	37	32	3	1	0	0	4	9	1	0	0	94	216	125	341	31	130	24	11	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	38	34	9	2	0	2	4	10	0	0	0	265	342	500	842	235	318	26	11	370	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AA	Altoona Curve	—	60	60	7	2	0	0	0	23	0	0	0	117	117	150	267	33	189	38	0	118	-57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	167	155	33	6	0	1	9	50	2	0	2	213	265	271	536	58	308	30	5	246	52	-9	-1	+7	+5	+4	0.5
2022	27	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	93	82	18	5	1	0	8	15	0	1	0	220	289	305	594	85	265	16	9	263	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	187	167	42	11	1	1	14	44	3	0	0	251	321	347	668	96	333	24	7	300	88	-3	+0	+10	+4	+4	1.5
2023	28	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	31	28	10	4	0	0	3	6	0	1	0	357	419	500	919	143	455	19	10	408	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	19	15	3	3	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	200	333	400	733	200	200	0	16	313	92	-0	+0	+0	+3	+0	0.4
2024	29	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	171	150	43	8	0	1	14	27	3	1	1	287	355	360	715	73	341	16	8	322	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	214	195	42	8	0	0	14	37	4	1	0	215	280	256	537	41	266	17	7	251	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AA	Columbus Clingstones	—	37	35	4	2	0	1	1	12	0	0	0	114	135	257	392	143	136	32	3	169	-25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	281	237	54	16	3	3	32	64	6	1	1	228	335	359	693	131	293	23	11	311	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	373	337	78	20	1	2	26	94	5	0	2	231	296	315	611	83	314	25	7	276	73	-12	-1	+17	+12	+8	2.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	22	ROK MLE	Bristol Pirates	—	128	112	23	4	0	1	8	18	8	0	0	205	305	268	573	62	226	14	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	251	225	45	3	1	2	16	74	5	2	0	200	268	249	517	49	275	29	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	252	235	47	9	1	8	9	80	5	1	0	200	245	349	594	149	251	32	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	38	35	7	2	0	1	3	13	0	0	0	200	263	343	606	143	282	34	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	60	60	5	1	0	0	0	28	0	0	0	83	83	100	183	17	161	47	0	84	-57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	167	155	33	6	0	1	9	50	2	0	2	213	265	271	536	58	308	30	5	246	52	-9	-1	+7	+5	+4	0.5
2022	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	93	85	15	4	1	0	5	18	0	1	0	176	222	247	469	71	226	19	5	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	187	167	42	11	1	1	14	44	3	0	0	251	321	347	668	96	333	24	7	298	88	-3	+0	+10	+4	+4	1.5
2023	28	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	31	29	8	3	0	0	2	7	0	1	0	276	323	379	702	103	398	23	6	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	19	15	3	3	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	200	333	400	733	200	200	0	16	304	92	-0	+0	+0	+3	+0	0.4
2024	29	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	171	156	37	6	0	1	10	34	3	1	1	237	296	295	591	58	290	20	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	214	202	36	5	0	0	8	46	4	1	0	178	224	203	427	25	233	21	4	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AA MLE	Columbus Clingstones	—	37	36	4	2	0	1	1	14	0	0	0	111	135	250	385	139	120	38	3	131	-25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	281	248	46	13	3	2	21	77	6	1	1	185	265	286	552	101	241	27	7	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	ROK MLE	Bristol Pirates	—	128	112	23	4	0	1	8	18	8	0	0	205	305	268	573	62	237	14	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	Bristol Pirates	—	128	107	27	5	0	1	13	13	8	0	0	252	375	327	702	75	280	10	10	332	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	251	225	45	3	1	2	16	74	5	2	0	200	268	249	517	49	287	29	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	Bradenton Marauders	—	251	219	54	4	1	2	21	51	5	2	0	247	325	301	627	55	311	20	8	286	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	289	270	53	10	1	9	10	92	6	1	0	196	241	341	582	144	256	32	3	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	289	263	57	13	1	8	17	72	6	1	0	217	280	365	645	148	263	25	6	287	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	98	95	12	3	0	1	3	41	0	0	0	126	153	189	343	63	208	42	3	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AA RAW	2 teams	—	98	94	16	4	0	2	4	33	0	0	0	170	204	277	481	106	237	34	4	216	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	260	240	49	10	1	1	14	68	2	1	2	204	254	267	521	62	279	26	5	235	45	-17	-1	+7	+5	+6	-0.1
2022	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	260	237	51	11	1	1	17	65	2	1	2	215	273	283	556	68	291	25	7	252	45	-17	-1	+7	+5	+6	-0.1
2023	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	218	196	51	14	1	1	16	51	3	1	0	260	326	357	683	97	345	23	7	302	90	-2	+0	+10	+4	+5	1.6
2023	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	218	195	52	15	1	1	17	50	3	1	0	267	335	369	704	103	352	23	8	315	90	-2	+0	+10	+4	+5	1.6
2024	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	190	171	40	9	0	1	13	34	3	1	1	234	299	304	604	70	285	18	7	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	190	165	46	11	0	1	17	27	3	1	1	279	353	364	717	85	326	14	9	321	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	251	238	40	7	0	1	9	60	4	1	0	168	211	210	421	42	220	24	4	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	251	230	46	10	0	1	15	49	4	1	0	200	259	257	515	57	250	20	6	239	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	281	248	46	13	3	2	21	77	6	1	1	185	265	286	552	101	254	27	7	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	—	281	237	54	16	3	3	32	64	6	1	1	228	335	359	693	131	293	23	11	311	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	ROK MLE	Bristol Pirates	—	128	111	23	4	0	1	8	18	8	0	0	207	305	270	575	63	226	14	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	251	228	45	3	1	2	16	74	5	2	0	197	268	246	514	48	275	29	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	289	271	53	10	1	9	10	92	6	1	0	196	241	339	581	144	251	32	3	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	98	95	12	3	0	1	3	41	0	0	0	126	153	189	343	63	208	42	3	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	260	242	49	10	1	1	14	68	2	1	2	202	254	264	518	62	278	26	5	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	218	197	51	14	1	1	16	51	3	1	0	259	326	355	681	96	343	23	7	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	190	172	40	9	0	1	13	34	3	1	1	233	299	302	602	70	281	18	7	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	251	236	40	7	0	1	9	60	4	1	0	169	211	212	423	42	216	24	4	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	281	252	46	13	3	2	21	77	6	1	1	183	265	282	547	99	241	27	7	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	190	172	40	9	0	1	13	34	3	1	1	233	299	302	602	70	281	18	7	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	251	236	40	7	0	1	9	60	4	1	0	169	211	212	423	42	216	24	4	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	281	252	46	13	3	2	21	77	6	1	1	183	265	282	547	99	241	27	7	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	BOS	10%	299	272	59	13	2	4	21	71	4	2	1	213	280	316	595	102	271	24	7	270	69	-11	+0	+1	+5	+6	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	BOS	10%	19	18	4	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	221	286	327	613	106	281	26	5	277	69	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	BOS	27%	152	139	29	6	1	2	10	37	2	0	0	206	272	300	571	93	266	24	7	260	62	-7	+0	-4	+3	+3	-0.5
2028	33	MLB CTX	BOS	27%	42	38	8	2	0	0	3	10	1	0	0	213	278	310	588	97	275	24	7	267	62	-2	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	415	375	86	22	1	2	29	104	6	0	2	229	295	309	604	80	311	25	7	275	50	-14	-1	+16	+13	+9	2.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	135	34	2	3	45	163	9	0	3	230	294	310	604	80	312	25	7	275	50	-22	-1	+24	+20	+14	3.6
Career	—	MLE		—	2308	2106	425	87	9	24	133	597	42	9	5	202	263	286	549	84	268	26	6	243	50	-26	-1	+14	+18	+15	2.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	121	25	3	7	37	168	12	3	1	204	265	292	557	88	270	26	6	243	50	-24	-1	+12	+16	+14	1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 281 PAwOBA .308 → .243 (−65)K% 22.8% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.78%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	27.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.39%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.962	7.56%
HBP% /PA	2.14%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.93%
Singles /BIP	18.50%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.955	×0.962	15.81%
Doubles /BIP	9.25%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.955	×0.962	7.05%
Triples /BIP	1.73%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.955	×0.962	1.55%
Home runs /BIP	1.73%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.962	1.17%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .308 → .243; ISO .131 → .102; BABIP .293 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 214 PAwOBA .245 → .198 (−47)K% 17.3% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.29%	÷0.976	×1.200	—	—	21.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.54%	÷1.140	×0.690	—	×0.972	3.85%
HBP% /PA	1.87%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.71%
Singles /BIP	21.52%	÷0.968	×0.930	×0.988	×0.972	19.84%
Doubles /BIP	5.06%	÷1.162	×0.830	×0.988	×0.972	3.47%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.988	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.961	×0.700	—	×0.972	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 95, BB 128 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .245 → .198; ISO .041 → .028; BABIP .266 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAColumbus Clingstones · 37 PAwOBA .164 → .131 (−33)K% 32.4% → 39.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.43%	÷1.011	×1.220	—	—	39.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.70%	÷1.036	×0.680	—	×0.948	1.68%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.840	—	×0.948	0.00%
Singles /BIP	4.35%	÷1.038	×0.920	—	×0.948	3.65%
Doubles /BIP	8.70%	÷0.951	×0.910	—	×0.948	7.89%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.108	×0.880	—	×0.948	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.35%	÷0.934	×0.800	—	×0.948	3.53%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 108, 2B 90, 3B 122, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .164 → .131; ISO .143 → .116; BABIP .136 → .120. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 171 PAwOBA .316 → .260 (−56)K% 15.8% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.79%	÷0.948	×1.200	—	—	20.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.19%	÷0.977	×0.690	—	×0.982	5.68%
HBP% /PA	1.75%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.62%
Singles /BIP	27.64%	÷1.009	×0.930	×0.967	×0.982	24.20%
Doubles /BIP	6.50%	÷1.050	×0.830	×0.967	×0.982	4.88%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.967	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.81%	÷0.909	×0.700	—	×0.982	0.62%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .316 → .260; ISO .073 → .056; BABIP .341 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 31 PAwOBA .398 → .325 (−72)K% 19.4% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.35%	÷0.967	×1.200	—	—	24.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.68%	÷1.056	×0.690	—	×0.992	6.28%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.27%	÷1.004	×0.930	—	×0.992	25.07%
Doubles /BIP	18.18%	÷1.013	×0.830	—	×0.992	14.78%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.095	×0.700	—	×0.992	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 101, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 93, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .398 → .325; ISO .143 → .114; BABIP .455 → .398. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 93 PAwOBA .260 → .217 (−43)K% 16.1% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.13%	÷0.982	×1.200	—	—	19.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.60%	÷1.058	×0.690	—	×1.003	5.63%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	17.91%	÷1.087	×0.930	×0.982	×1.003	15.10%
Doubles /BIP	7.46%	÷0.964	×0.830	×0.982	×1.003	6.33%
Triples /BIP	1.49%	÷0.942	×0.970	×0.982	×1.003	1.51%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.013	×0.700	—	×1.003	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 117, 2B 93, 3B 88, K 96, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .260 → .217; ISO .085 → .079; BABIP .265 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAltoona Curve · 60 PAwOBA .115 → .084 (−31)K% 38.3% → 47.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	38.33%	÷0.992	×1.220	—	—	47.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×0.988	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×0.988	0.00%
Singles /BIP	13.51%	÷1.042	×0.940	×0.950	×0.988	11.44%
Doubles /BIP	5.41%	÷0.948	×0.870	×0.950	×0.988	4.65%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.950	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.947	×0.780	—	×0.988	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 108, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .115 → .084; ISO .033 → .025; BABIP .189 → .161. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 38 PAwOBA .359 → .269 (−90)K% 26.3% → 32.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.32%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	32.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷1.100	×0.690	—	×1.018	6.72%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.83%	÷1.011	×0.930	—	×1.018	19.51%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷0.986	×0.830	—	×1.018	7.14%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.914	×0.920	—	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.33%	÷1.096	×0.700	—	×1.018	5.42%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 83, K 92, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .359 → .269; ISO .235 → .158; BABIP .318 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Brayan Peñalast yr '15 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	21	6	262	303	355	+19	+37	7.1	7.1
/162	664	8	2	+7.0	+13.6	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Mike Difelice'96-'08 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,714 PA	2.6	1,714	28	3	226*	277*	345*	+30	+0	0.6	1.5
/162	664	11	1	+11.7	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 2
#5Gary Bennett'95-'08 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,876 PA	2.8	1,876	22	6	232*	290*	317*	+33	+0	0.1	0.5
/162	664	8	2	+11.8	+0.0	0.0	pk7: 1
#6Andy Allanson'86-'95 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	16	23	238*	283*	326*	+29	-0	0.3	0.5
/162	664	7	9	+11.6	-0.1	0.1	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.6	415	3	0	230	288	310	+7	+11	0.3	0.3
/162	664	4	0	+11.9	+17.7	0.5	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jason Delay (OGILVIE)	32	45	25	45	35	212/277/313	101	271	3	1	24%	7%	69	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alberto Castillo 2002 · MLB	32	44	39→30	44→30	49	213/280/295	82	255	7	6	19%	8%	65	-1.2	221/285/338	117	266	11	7	20%	8%	76	-0.4	226/301/297	71	274	2	2	17%	10%	72	-0.2
✕Michel Hernandez 2011 · MLB	32	48	38→40	45→40	48	227/274/302	76	256	7	7	15%	6%	63	-1.3	220/280/309	89	252	6	6	15%	6%	68	-1.0	210/273/287	77	241	3	1	14%	6%	59	-0.5
✕Carlos Maldonado 2011 · AAA	32	41→50	41→40	45→40	44	206/258/300	94	256	9	7	24%	6%	57	-1.8	197/265/302	105	268	11	6	29%	8%	61	-1.5	173/257/280	106	230	11	0	28%	10%	50	-0.6
✕Elliot Soto 2022 · AAA	32	46→52	39→40	48→50	44	218/278/304	86	291	6	10	26%	7%	66	-1.1	193/255/272	79	276	5	16	30%	7%	50	-2.3	174/240/240	67	253	4	20	31%	7%	35	-1.9
✕Rocky Gale 2019 · AAA	31	48→45	38→40	43→30	42	228/265/306	78	277	5	3	20%	4%	61	-1.5	221/255/304	83	283	7	6	23%	4%	56	-1.9	217/246/275	57	283	4	3	24%	3%	42	-0.9
✕Juan Graterol 2022 · MLB	33	48	39→40	46→30	45	227/276/303	76	255	7	5	14%	5%	65	-1.2	227/277/326	99	255	9	10	15%	5%	71	-0.8	215/251/291	76	231	6	10	10%	2%	49	-0.6
✕Erick Almonte 2010 · AAA	32	49→47	40	47→45	48	237/296/331	94	294	8	7	22%	8%	78	-0.3	238/288/326	88	304	7	7	23%	6%	74	-0.5	247/295/331	84	312	6	5	22%	6%	74	-0.3
✕Chris Ashby 2007 · AAA	32	48	40	42→45	46	230/276/317	87	265	8	6	17%	5%	68	-1.0	220/281/334	114	267	12	7	22%	7%	74	-0.5	177/252/275	98	210	12	0	22%	9%	48	-0.7
✕Tuffy Gosewisch 2016 · MLB	32	45→43	41→45	45→40	44	218/260/316	98	254	8	7	18%	5%	61	-1.5	204/261/314	110	251	11	4	23%	6%	62	-1.4	184/245/283	99	232	9	1	24%	6%	47	-1.3
✕Kevin Flores 2017 · AAA	32	50→49	38→40	40→45	42	237/281/314	77	291	5	5	20%	5%	69	-0.9	212/259/279	67	265	4	7	21%	5%	53	-2.1	189/231/221	32	240	0	4	20%	4%	26	-1.3
✕Tyler Ladendorf 2021 · AAA	33	43→49	41→40	46→50	45	210/269/306	96	272	8	9	26%	7%	63	-1.4	209/258/335	126	279	14	8	29%	5%	66	-1.1	176/219/292	116	227	14	2	29%	4%	39	-1.1
✕J.C. Boscan 2011 · AAA	31	45	39→40	45→30	45	217/272/298	81	277	6	4	23%	6%	62	-1.4	188/236/258	70	248	5	4	25%	5%	39	-3.1	167/211/202	34	218	2	2	23%	5%	14	-1.4
✕José Yépez 2014 · AAA	33	46	38→40	47→30	46	218/274/297	79	252	5	5	16%	5%	63	-1.4	201/252/276	75	243	6	7	19%	5%	49	-2.4	154/187/183	29	190	3	4	21%	3%	2	-1.4
✕Raul Chavez 2005 · MLB	32	45	40	43→30	43	220/261/311	91	269	7	5	21%	5%	60	-1.6	209/246/289	80	246	7	4	18%	4%	50	-2.3	220/252/306	86	244	8	1	13%	3%	55	-0.7
✕Alberto Rosario 2019 · MLB	32	45	36→30	44→50	41	217/253/278	60	266	5	6	20%	4%	49	-2.4	214/263/296	82	273	7	7	23%	6%	58	-1.7	186/237/223	37	241	3	0	23%	6%	30	-1.0
✕Nevin Ashley 2016 · MLB	31	46→50	42→45	43→45	43	225/283/328	103	289	9	4	25%	6%	74	-0.6	223/291/341	118	297	12	6	28%	7%	80	-0.2	191/276/300	109	258	12	2	29%	8%	65	-0.4
✕Hiroyuki Nakajima 2014 · AAA	32	48	39→40	47→45	39	230/275/308	78	311	7	7	28%	5%	65	-1.2	218/270/306	88	288	9	8	26%	6%	63	-1.3	199/252/264	65	259	7	6	25%	6%	45	-1.5
✕Dan Butler 2018 · AAA	31	46→39	40→45	46→40	47	222/285/320	97	282	7	3	23%	7%	72	-0.7	207/273/311	104	257	10	6	23%	7%	66	-1.1	161/236/240	78	193	9	0	21%	8%	35	-1.4
✕Gary Bennett 2004 · MLB	32	51	40	45→40	48	242/292/331	89	274	7	5	15%	6%	77	-0.3	227/286/321	94	260	8	4	15%	7%	73	-0.6	215/276/300	84	246	7	1	15%	7%	65	-0.4
✕Jonathan Diaz 2017 · MLB	32	42→48	35→30	46→50	50	198/269/256	58	245	3	8	20%	8%	52	-2.2	209/292/294	85	265	7	9	22%	9%	70	-0.8	184/294/250	66	235	6	4	22%	10%	61	-0.6

Jason Delay

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps