Ricardo Olivar

C Wichita Wind Surge
Age 25 R/R 5'10" / 176 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
OGV OFP35OGV rank#828ETA2029MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202422AA/A+MIN433.275/.383/.44112674—.215/.297/.324
202523AAMIN407.264/.359/.412131373—.216/.290/.325
202624AAA/AAMIN164.274/.350/.603123101—.225/.282/.471
2027PROJMLE25MLBMIN2.232/.301/.39000940.0
2028PROJ28% MLB26MLBMIN53.232/.302/.39021940.2
2029PROJ41% MLB27MLBMIN93.232/.302/.38932940.3
Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.4M2034Ext$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
ISO98
wOBA92
wRC+89
K%80
Z-Con%74
Whiff%65
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 4.3, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 88%
CompsJ.R. Towles (age 25) · Luis Torrens (age 26) · Andrew Knizner (age 25)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†94
AVG/OBP/SLG.232 / .301 / .390
PA2
HR0
K%24
BB%9
BABIP276
ISO157
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -0.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-1BATRUN: -0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: -0.6 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: +2.0 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +2.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: +0.40+0.4WAR
0.00.51.00.00.20.30.30.20.20.127282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.3$1.0M+$0.3M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M
2033Arb-1$0.4M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $3M $2M +$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202119 ROKFCL Twins — 5949 10211 8172 30 204339347686 143290 2914 318 25 — — — — — —
202220 ROKFCL Twins — 154129 451235 18335 55 3494476051.052 256430 2112 451 94 — — — — — —
202321 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 449372 10628210 599316 121 285405452857 167354 2113 385 93 — — — — — —
202422 AAWichita Wind Surge — 7767 15201 9181 30 224325299623 75292 2312 293 39 — — — — — —
202422 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels — 356300 8617311 53701 30 287395473869 187339 2015 385 82 — — — — — —
202523 AAWichita Wind Surge — 407352 9313013 49743 133 264359412771 148299 1812 346 73 — — — — — —
202624 AAASt. Paul Saints — 2727 7202 060 10 259259556815 296263 220 350 65 — — — — — —
202624 AAWichita Wind Surge — 137119 3310010 16261 22 277368613981 336274 1912 418 108 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202119 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 5952 7111 5252 30 135237250487 115222 428 205 25 — — — — — —
202220 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 154136 33923 11475 55 243322404727 162323 317 307 94 — — — — — —
202321 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 449394 942128 3713116 121 239329363692 124328 298 305 93 — — — — — —
202422 AA MLEWichita Wind Surge — 7769 12201 7231 30 174260246506 72241 309 226 39 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 356317 711227 36911 30 224305341646 117288 2610 289 82 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEWichita Wind Surge — 407366 7910010 35963 133 216290325615 109259 249 276 73 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 2727 6201 070 10 222222407630 185235 260 264 65 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLEWichita Wind Surge — 137124 28808 11321 22 226294484778 258227 238 328 108 — — — — — —
202119 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 5952 7111 5252 30 135237250487 115231 428 205 25 — — — — — —
202119 ROK RAWFCL Twins — 5949 10211 8172 30 204339347686 143290 2914 318 25 — — — — — —
202220 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 154136 33923 11475 55 243322404727 162341 317 307 94 — — — — — —
202220 ROK RAWFCL Twins — 154129 451235 18335 55 3494476051.052 256430 2112 451 94 — — — — — —
202321 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 449394 942128 3713116 121 239329363692 124335 298 305 93 — — — — — —
202321 A RAWFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 449372 10628210 599316 121 285405452857 167354 2113 385 93 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLE2 teams — 433386 831428 431142 60 215297324621 109282 2610 278 74 — — — — — —
202422 A+ RAW2 teams — 433367 10119312 62882 60 275383441824 166331 2014 369 74 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEWichita Wind Surge — 407366 7910010 35963 133 216290325615 109262 249 276 73 — — — — — —
202523 AA RAWWichita Wind Surge — 407352 9313013 49743 133 264359412771 148299 1812 346 73 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLE2 teams — 164151 331009 11391 32 219276464740 245231 247 317 101 — — — — — —
202624 AA RAW2 teams — 164146 4012012 16321 32 274350603952 329272 2010 407 101 — — — — — —
202119 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 5952 7111 5252 30 135237250487 115222 428 205 25 — — — — — —
202220 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 154137 33923 11475 55 241322401724 161323 317 307 94 — — — — — —
202321 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 449393 942128 3713116 121 239329364693 125328 298 305 93 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLE2 teams — 433385 831428 431142 60 216297325622 109280 2610 278 74 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEWichita Wind Surge — 407366 7910010 35963 133 216290325615 109259 249 276 73 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLE2 teams — 164151 331009 11391 32 219276464740 245228 247 317 101 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202422 A+ MLE2 teams — 433385 831428 431142 60 216297325622 109280 2610 278 74 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEWichita Wind Surge — 407366 7910010 35963 133 216290325615 109259 249 276 73 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLE2 teams — 164151 331009 11391 32 219276464740 245228 247 317 101 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202725 MLB MLEMIN 2% 214193 45817 18511 41 232301389690 157276 248 307 94 -2 +0 -1 +4 +5 0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202725 MLB CTXMIN 2% 22 0000 000 00 232301390691 158276 00 307 94 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202826 MLB MLEMIN 28% 186167 38706 16441 31 232302390691 158276 249 307 94 -1 +0 -1 +3 +4 0.5
202927 MLB MLEMIN 41% 226204 47917 19541 41 232302388689 156277 248 307 94 -2 +0 -1 +4 +5 0.7
203028 MLB MLEMIN 49% 251227 531018 21601 31 231300384685 154276 248 305 93 -2 +0 -2 +4 +5 0.6
203129 MLB MLEMIN 52% 259233 541018 22632 31 229299379678 150276 248 302 91 -3 +0 -3 +5 +6 0.5
203230 MLB MLEMIN 54% 265239 551018 22652 21 227296373669 146275 258 299 88 -4 +0 -4 +5 +6 0.3
203331 MLB MLEMIN 55% 240217 48907 20591 11 222291363654 140271 258 292 84 -5 -0 -4 +4 +5 0.1
202826 MLB CTXMIN 28% 5349 11202 4130 10 232302390692 158276 258 308 94 -0 +0 -0 +1 +1 0.2
202927 MLB CTXMIN 41% 9384 20403 8221 20 232302389691 157277 249 307 94 -1 +0 -1 +2 +2 0.3
203028 MLB CTXMIN 49% 122110 25504 10291 21 231301385686 154276 248 305 93 -1 +0 -1 +2 +3 0.3
203129 MLB CTXMIN 52% 134121 27504 11321 11 229299380679 151276 248 303 91 -1 -0 -1 +2 +3 0.2
203230 MLB CTXMIN 54% 142128 28504 12351 10 227296373670 147275 258 299 88 -2 +0 -2 +3 +3 0.2
203331 MLB CTXMIN 55% 132119 27504 11331 10 223291363655 141271 258 293 84 -3 +0 -2 +2 +3 0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 676611 13826021 561645 82 226296372668 146272 248 301 86 -8 +1 -8 +12 +15 1.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650588 13325020 541585 82 226297371668 145273 248 301 86 -8 +1 -7 +12 +14 1.2
Career— MLE — 32072874 6471241187 27282438 6018 225301367667 142283 268 295 86 -17 +1 -16 +28 +33 2.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650583 13125218 551678 124 225300367667 142282 268 295 86 -7 +0 -7 +12 +14 1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 137 PAwOBA .409 → .328 (−82)K% 19.0% → 23.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.98%÷1.000×1.220——23.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.68%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9988.16%
HBP% /PA0.73%—×0.870—×0.9980.63%
Singles /BIP13.98%÷1.000×0.920×0.962×0.99812.35%
Doubles /BIP10.75%÷1.000×0.840×0.962×0.9988.67%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.940×0.962×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP10.75%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9988.58%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .409 → .328; ISO .336 → .270; BABIP .274 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 27 PAwOBA .338 → .264 (−74)K% 22.2% → 26.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.22%÷1.000×1.200——26.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA0.00%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0330.00%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0330.00%
Singles /BIP14.29%÷1.000×0.930—×1.03313.72%
Doubles /BIP9.52%÷1.000×0.830—×1.0338.17%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970—×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP9.52%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0336.89%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .338 → .264; ISO .296 → .211; BABIP .263 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 407 PAwOBA .340 → .276 (−64)K% 18.2% → 23.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.18%÷0.941×1.220——23.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.04%÷0.992×0.700—×1.0128.60%
HBP% /PA0.74%—×0.870—×1.0120.65%
Singles /BIP24.10%÷1.025×0.920×0.978×1.01221.42%
Doubles /BIP4.68%÷1.031×0.840×0.978×1.0123.77%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.940×0.978×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP4.68%÷0.986×0.800—×1.0123.84%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 105, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 88, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .340 → .276; ISO .148 → .119; BABIP .299 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 356 PAwOBA .377 → .289 (−89)K% 19.7% → 25.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.66%÷0.972×1.270——25.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.89%÷1.043×0.710—×0.99810.11%
HBP% /PA0.28%—×0.790—×0.9980.22%
Singles /BIP23.91%÷0.984×0.920×0.982×0.99821.91%
Doubles /BIP7.39%÷1.119×0.810×0.982×0.9985.24%
Triples /BIP1.30%÷1.146×0.850×0.982×0.9980.95%
Home runs /BIP4.78%÷1.191×0.800—×0.9983.21%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 97, 2B 124, 3B 129, K 94, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .377 → .289; ISO .187 → .127; BABIP .339 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAWichita Wind Surge · 77 PAwOBA .286 → .226 (−60)K% 23.4% → 29.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.38%÷0.964×1.220——29.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.69%÷0.963×0.700—×1.0278.72%
HBP% /PA1.30%—×0.870—×1.0271.16%
Singles /BIP24.49%÷1.091×0.920×0.950×1.02720.16%
Doubles /BIP4.08%÷0.979×0.840×0.950×1.0273.42%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.126×0.940×0.950×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP2.04%÷0.845×0.800—×1.0271.98%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 118, 2B 96, 3B 125, K 93, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .286 → .226; ISO .075 → .065; BABIP .292 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 449 PAwOBA .375 → .305 (−71)K% 20.7% → 29.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.71%÷0.969×1.360——29.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.69%÷1.050×0.690——8.34%
HBP% /PA3.56%—×0.780——2.78%
Singles /BIP23.66%÷0.938×0.920×1.006—23.34%
Doubles /BIP10.04%÷1.053×0.830×1.006—7.96%
Triples /BIP0.72%÷0.900×0.910×1.006—0.73%
Home runs /BIP3.58%÷0.976×0.800——2.94%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 88, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .375 → .305; ISO .167 → .132; BABIP .354 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Twins · 154 PAwOBA .444 → .307 (−136)K% 21.4% → 30.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.43%÷1.016×1.440——30.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.04%÷0.984×0.620—×0.9856.85%
HBP% /PA3.25%—×0.720—×0.9852.30%
Singles /BIP26.04%÷0.997×0.820×0.970×0.98520.46%
Doubles /BIP12.50%÷0.925×0.720×0.970×0.9859.30%
Triples /BIP3.12%÷0.972×0.720×0.970×0.9852.21%
Home runs /BIP5.21%÷1.282×0.780—×0.9853.12%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 99, 2B 85, 3B 94, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .444 → .307; ISO .256 → .167; BABIP .430 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Twins · 59 PAwOBA .310 → .205 (−105)K% 28.8% → 41.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.81%÷0.996×1.440——41.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.56%÷0.989×0.620—×0.9958.46%
HBP% /PA3.39%—×0.720—×0.9952.43%
Singles /BIP18.75%÷1.027×0.820—×0.99514.89%
Doubles /BIP6.25%÷0.982×0.720—×0.9954.56%
Triples /BIP3.12%÷1.004×0.720—×0.9952.23%
Home runs /BIP3.12%÷0.982×0.780—×0.9952.47%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 105, 2B 96, 3B 101, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .310 → .205; ISO .143 → .094; BABIP .290 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).