Paul McIntosh
C Lehigh Valley IronPigs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAMIA | 480 | .246/.341/.385 | 12 | 8 | 68 | — | .216/.285/.323 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA/AAPHI | 272 | .250/.342/.432 | 10 | 2 | 75 | — | .219/.290/.362 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAAPHI | 292 | .244/.338/.417 | 9 | 0 | 65 | — | .202/.276/.323 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBPHI | 16 | .218/.287/.351 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ33% MLB | 30 | MLBPHI | 63 | .217/.285/.346 | 2 | 0 | 76 | 0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 94 | 75 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 253 | 398 | 627 | 1.025 | 373 | 260 | 21 | 16 | 432 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 383 | 318 | 82 | 25 | 1 | 13 | 55 | 75 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 258 | 381 | 465 | 846 | 208 | 297 | 20 | 14 | 376 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 117 | 100 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 336 | 380 | 716 | 150 | 281 | 27 | 11 | 325 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 166 | 137 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 34 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 255 | 378 | 445 | 823 | 190 | 278 | 20 | 14 | 366 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 49 | 42 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 238 | 347 | 429 | 776 | 190 | 409 | 39 | 14 | 347 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 57 | 48 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 229 | 351 | 375 | 726 | 146 | 333 | 33 | 11 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 480 | 418 | 103 | 18 | 2 | 12 | 50 | 95 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 246 | 341 | 385 | 726 | 139 | 291 | 20 | 10 | 329 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 40 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 316 | 333 | 649 | 200 | 91 | 20 | 15 | 291 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 232 | 206 | 55 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 40 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 267 | 346 | 447 | 793 | 180 | 296 | 17 | 10 | 352 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 292 | 254 | 62 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 62 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 244 | 338 | 417 | 755 | 173 | 286 | 21 | 10 | 337 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 94 | 80 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 312 | 487 | 799 | 287 | 203 | 29 | 11 | 333 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 383 | 337 | 75 | 22 | 1 | 10 | 36 | 95 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 223 | 312 | 383 | 695 | 160 | 273 | 25 | 9 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 117 | 104 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 37 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 284 | 288 | 573 | 87 | 269 | 32 | 8 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 166 | 145 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 42 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 207 | 299 | 345 | 644 | 138 | 232 | 25 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 49 | 44 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 159 | 245 | 295 | 540 | 136 | 336 | 51 | 10 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 480 | 436 | 94 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 111 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 216 | 285 | 323 | 608 | 108 | 263 | 23 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 40 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 263 | 312 | 576 | 188 | 84 | 25 | 10 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 232 | 213 | 50 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 48 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 235 | 294 | 371 | 665 | 136 | 270 | 21 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 292 | 263 | 53 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 74 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 276 | 323 | 599 | 122 | 250 | 25 | 7 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 94 | 80 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 312 | 487 | 799 | 287 | 224 | 29 | 11 | 333 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A RAW | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 94 | 75 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 253 | 398 | 627 | 1.025 | 373 | 260 | 21 | 16 | 432 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 383 | 337 | 75 | 22 | 1 | 10 | 36 | 95 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 223 | 312 | 383 | 695 | 160 | 278 | 25 | 9 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 383 | 318 | 82 | 25 | 1 | 13 | 55 | 75 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 258 | 381 | 465 | 846 | 208 | 297 | 20 | 14 | 376 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 389 | 343 | 68 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 121 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 198 | 288 | 321 | 608 | 122 | 263 | 31 | 8 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 389 | 327 | 79 | 8 | 0 | 16 | 49 | 104 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 242 | 358 | 413 | 770 | 171 | 300 | 27 | 13 | 347 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 480 | 436 | 94 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 111 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 216 | 285 | 323 | 608 | 108 | 267 | 23 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 480 | 418 | 103 | 18 | 2 | 12 | 50 | 95 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 246 | 341 | 385 | 726 | 139 | 291 | 20 | 10 | 329 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 272 | 245 | 53 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 58 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 216 | 286 | 347 | 633 | 131 | 251 | 21 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 272 | 236 | 59 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 48 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 250 | 342 | 432 | 774 | 182 | 271 | 18 | 11 | 343 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 292 | 263 | 53 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 74 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 276 | 323 | 599 | 122 | 254 | 25 | 7 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA RAW | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 292 | 254 | 62 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 62 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 244 | 338 | 417 | 755 | 173 | 286 | 21 | 10 | 337 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 94 | 81 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 312 | 481 | 793 | 284 | 203 | 29 | 11 | 333 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 383 | 336 | 75 | 22 | 1 | 10 | 36 | 95 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 223 | 312 | 384 | 696 | 161 | 273 | 25 | 9 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 389 | 343 | 68 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 121 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 198 | 288 | 321 | 608 | 122 | 260 | 31 | 8 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 480 | 435 | 94 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 111 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 216 | 285 | 324 | 609 | 108 | 263 | 23 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 272 | 246 | 53 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 58 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 215 | 286 | 346 | 632 | 130 | 243 | 21 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 292 | 263 | 53 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 74 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 276 | 323 | 599 | 122 | 250 | 25 | 7 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 480 | 435 | 94 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 111 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 216 | 285 | 324 | 609 | 108 | 263 | 23 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 272 | 246 | 53 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 58 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 215 | 286 | 346 | 632 | 130 | 243 | 21 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 292 | 263 | 53 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 74 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 276 | 323 | 599 | 122 | 250 | 25 | 7 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | PHI | 10% | 342 | 309 | 67 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 80 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 217 | 285 | 345 | 630 | 128 | 264 | 23 | 7 | 283 | 78 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | PHI | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 287 | 351 | 637 | 132 | 264 | 25 | 6 | 286 | 78 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | PHI | 33% | 192 | 174 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 45 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 215 | 283 | 340 | 623 | 125 | 263 | 23 | 7 | 281 | 76 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | PHI | 33% | 63 | 58 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 285 | 346 | 630 | 129 | 263 | 24 | 6 | 283 | 76 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 63 | 58 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 286 | 379 | 665 | 155 | 268 | 24 | 6 | 283 | 76 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 598 | 135 | 31 | 0 | 21 | 41 | 155 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 286 | 383 | 669 | 157 | 270 | 24 | 6 | 283 | 76 | -18 | +0 | -7 | +12 | +14 | 0.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2257 | 2018 | 427 | 88 | 5 | 57 | 175 | 567 | 48 | 28 | 12 | 212 | 290 | 345 | 635 | 133 | 263 | 25 | 8 | 280 | 76 | -10 | +0 | -2 | +6 | +8 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 122 | 25 | 1 | 16 | 50 | 163 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 210 | 288 | 339 | 627 | 129 | 261 | 25 | 8 | 280 | 76 | -18 | +1 | -4 | +12 | +14 | 0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 292 PAwOBA .331 → .265 (−66)K% 21.2% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.23% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 6.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.40% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 2.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.006 | ×0.982 | 17.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.006 | ×0.982 | 7.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.006 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 3.22% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .331 → .265; ISO .173 → .128; BABIP .286 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAReading Fightin Phils · 232 PAwOBA .344 → .286 (−58)K% 17.2% → 20.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.24% | ÷1.016 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.91% | ÷0.982 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 6.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.86% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.48% | ÷0.968 | ×0.970 | ×0.994 | ×0.968 | 19.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.83% | ÷1.004 | ×0.860 | ×0.994 | ×0.968 | 6.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.959 | ×0.950 | ×0.994 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.82% | ÷1.036 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 3.51% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 94, 2B 101, 3B 92, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .344 → .286; ISO .180 → .137; BABIP .296 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 40 PAwOBA .299 → .240 (−59)K% 20.0% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.996 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.00% | ÷1.075 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 9.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 4.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.986 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 8.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.018 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.947 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 6.66% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 99, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .299 → .240; ISO .200 → .164; BABIP .091 → .084. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 480 PAwOBA .321 → .268 (−53)K% 19.8% → 23.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.79% | ÷1.039 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.21% | ÷1.016 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 6.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.08% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 1.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.98% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×1.016 | ×0.978 | 20.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.57% | ÷1.034 | ×0.910 | ×1.016 | ×0.978 | 4.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.62% | ÷0.909 | ×0.880 | ×1.016 | ×0.978 | 0.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.72% | ÷1.064 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.73% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 82, K 108, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .321 → .268; ISO .139 → .112; BABIP .291 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 166 PAwOBA .361 → .280 (−81)K% 20.5% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.48% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.86% | ÷1.056 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 8.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.41% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 2.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.27% | ÷1.052 | ×0.920 | ×0.977 | ×0.988 | 20.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.94% | ÷0.947 | ×0.910 | ×0.977 | ×0.988 | 1.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.097 | ×0.880 | ×0.977 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.77% | ÷1.091 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 5.63% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 110, 2B 89, 3B 119, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .361 → .280; ISO .190 → .145; BABIP .278 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 117 PAwOBA .319 → .265 (−53)K% 27.4% → 31.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.35% | ÷1.040 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.56% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.47% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 25.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.955 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.039 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.35% | ÷1.031 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 5.08% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 108, K 108, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .319 → .265; ISO .150 → .104; BABIP .281 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AJupiter Hammerheads · 49 PAwOBA .338 → .232 (−106)K% 38.8% → 50.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.78% | ÷1.039 | ×1.360 | — | — | 50.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.996 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.960 | 9.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.39% | ÷0.985 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.960 | 15.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷1.031 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.960 | 16.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.924 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.960 | 3.61% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 97, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 108, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .338 → .232; ISO .190 → .128; BABIP .409 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 383 PAwOBA .368 → .304 (−65)K% 19.6% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.58% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.36% | ÷1.021 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 9.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.09% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 1.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.70% | ÷0.981 | ×0.920 | ×1.027 | ×0.998 | 17.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.29% | ÷1.056 | ×0.910 | ×1.027 | ×0.998 | 9.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.027 | ×0.998 | 0.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.35% | ÷1.048 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 4.08% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 96, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 93, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .368 → .304; ISO .208 → .169; BABIP .297 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .