Paul McIntosh — OGILVIE

Paul McIntoshC Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 28 R/R 5'10" / 220 lbs AAA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION178 act + 118 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.223 / .289 / .353

PA118

HR3

K%24

BB%7

BABIP270

ISO130

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	94	79	16	3	2	6	11	26	3	0	0	203	323	519	842	316	208	28	12	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	94	75	19	6	2	6	15	20	3	0	0	253	398	627	1.025	373	260	21	16	432	189	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	383	337	73	19	1	11	36	104	8	10	5	217	307	377	684	160	277	27	9	298	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	383	318	82	25	1	13	55	75	8	10	5	258	381	465	846	208	297	20	14	376	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	4 teams	—	389	343	69	7	0	13	33	123	10	6	4	201	290	335	625	134	267	32	8	273	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	4 teams	—	389	327	79	8	0	16	49	104	10	6	4	242	358	413	770	171	300	27	13	347	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	480	435	97	15	2	10	33	114	10	8	3	223	293	336	629	113	278	24	7	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	480	418	103	18	2	12	50	95	10	8	3	246	341	385	726	139	291	20	10	329	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AA	2 teams	—	272	245	56	11	0	9	20	60	4	2	0	229	297	384	681	155	263	22	7	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AA	2 teams	—	272	236	59	13	0	10	29	48	4	2	0	250	342	432	774	182	271	18	11	343	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	AAA	PHI	—	178	164	36	8	0	5	11	42	2	0	0	220	277	360	637	140	263	24	6	280	72	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.3
YTD	28	AAA	PHI	—	178	159	41	10	0	6	16	35	2	0	0	258	333	434	767	176	294	20	9	340	119	+4	+0	+0	+3	+5	1.2
ROS	28	AAA	PHI	10%	118	107	24	5	0	3	8	28	2	1	0	223	289	353	642	130	270	24	7	292	82	-2	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.3
ROS	28	MLB	PHI	10%	12	11	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	182	250	182	432		272	25	8	284	76	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	28	AAA	PHI	—	190	175	38	8	0	5	12	45	2	0	0	217	275	349	624	131	262	24	6	280	73	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.3
TOT	28	AAA	PHI	—	296	271	60	13	0	8	19	70	4	1	0	221	282	357	639	136	266	24	6	285	76	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	PHI	33%	290	263	60	11	1	8	21	69	4	2	1	228	295	369	664	141	272	24	7	294	83	-6	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.7
2028	30	MLB	PHI	46%	319	289	65	12	1	9	23	76	4	2	1	225	291	367	658	142	272	24	7	293	83	-6	+0	-2	+6	+9	0.6
2029	31	MLB	PHI	54%	307	278	63	12	1	8	22	74	4	2	0	227	293	363	656	137	271	24	7	291	81	-7	+0	-3	+5	+9	0.5
2030	32	MLB	PHI	58%	288	261	58	11	1	7	21	70	4	1	0	222	290	352	643	130	268	24	7	286	77	-8	+0	-4	+5	+8	0.3
2031	33	MLB	PHI	61%	256	232	49	9	0	6	19	64	3	1	0	211	280	328	607	116	264	25	7	279	72	-8	+0	-4	+5	+7	-0.0
2032	34	MLB	PHI	56%	213	193	40	7	0	5	15	54	3	1	0	207	275	321	596	114	258	25	7	270	65	-8	+0	-5	+4	+6	-0.3
2027	29	MLB	PHI	33%	95	87	20	4	0	3	7	22	1	1	0	230	295	379	674	149	274	23	7	286	77	-2	+0	-0	+2	+3	0.2
2028	30	MLB	PHI	46%	146	132	30	6	0	4	11	35	2	1	0	227	297	364	660	136	274	24	8	286	77	-4	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.2
2029	31	MLB	PHI	54%	164	149	32	6	0	4	12	39	2	1	0	215	282	336	618	121	273	24	7	283	75	-5	+0	-1	+3	+5	0.2
2030	32	MLB	PHI	58%	167	151	33	6	0	4	12	41	2	1	0	219	285	338	623	119	270	25	7	279	71	-5	+0	-2	+3	+5	0.0
2031	33	MLB	PHI	61%	155	141	30	5	0	4	11	39	2	1	0	213	279	333	613	121	266	25	7	272	66	-6	+0	-3	+3	+4	-0.1
2032	34	MLB	PHI	56%	120	109	23	4	0	3	9	31	1	0	0	211	277	330	608	119	260	26	8	263	60	-5	+0	-3	+2	+3	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	859	780	170	31	0	22	63	210	10	5	0	218	285	342	627	124	268	24	7	278	71	-28	+1	-10	+15	+24	0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	129	23	0	17	48	159	8	4	0	219	287	344	631	125	268	24	7	278	71	-21	+1	-8	+12	+18	0.2
Career	—			—	3409	3062	670	122	9	95	262	862	59	36	14	219	293	358	650	139	271	25	8	287	78	-84	+2	-19	+61	+97	5.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	128	23	2	18	50	164	11	7	3	219	293	358	651	139	271	25	8	287	78	-16	+0	-4	+12	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	94	75	19	6	2	6	15	20	3	0	0	253	398	627	1.025	373	260	21	16	432	189	+9	+0	—	—	+3	1.2
2022	24	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	383	318	82	25	1	13	55	75	8	10	5	258	381	465	846	208	297	20	14	376	146	+20	+0	—	—	+11	3.1
2023	25	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	117	100	23	0	0	5	13	32	3	0	0	230	336	380	716	150	281	27	11	325	107	+1	+0	—	—	+3	0.4
2023	25	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	166	137	35	2	0	8	23	34	4	3	2	255	378	445	823	190	278	20	14	366	139	+7	-0	—	—	+5	1.2
2023	25	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	49	42	10	5	0	1	7	19	0	0	0	238	347	429	776	190	409	39	14	347	124	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	25	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	57	48	11	1	0	2	6	19	3	3	2	229	351	375	726	146	333	33	11	335	114	+1	-0	—	—	+2	0.2
2024	26	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	480	418	103	18	2	12	50	95	10	8	3	246	341	385	726	139	291	20	10	329	110	+5	+0	—	—	+14	2.0
2025	27	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	40	30	4	0	0	2	6	8	2	0	0	133	316	333	649	200	91	20	15	291	81	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2025	27	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	232	206	55	13	0	8	23	40	2	2	0	267	346	447	793	180	296	17	10	352	127	+7	+0	—	—	+7	1.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	873	23	4	220	284	351	+16	+12	1.4	1.4
	/162	664	17	3	220	284	351	+11.9	+9.1	1.1	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Paul McIntosh (OGILVIE)	28	50	50	45	45	221/282/357	136	266	8	1	24%	6%	76	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Pedro Severino 2021 · MLB	28	46→48	49→50	48→45	49	233/301/374	141	274	17	6	22%	8%	90	+1.0	239/299/374	135	304	15	6	25%	8%	89	+1.0	230/288/355	125	295	14	6	26%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Michael McKenry 2013 · MLB	28	44→47	50→55	43→40	47	225/294/378	153	281	17	3	26%	8%	88	+0.9	236/310/392	156	288	18	6	23%	9%	98	+1.6	228/310/373	145	276	16	5	23%	10%	91	+0.3
✕Kevin Plawecki 2019 · MLB	28	47→56	47→45	43→30	50	233/311/369	136	275	14	3	20%	8%	93	+1.3	245/315/376	131	289	12	5	19%	7%	96	+1.5	235/301/328	92	275	8	0	17%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Brad Davis 2011 · MLB	28	43	48→50	44→45	45	219/279/365	145	272	15	5	25%	7%	79	+0.3	213/262/323	110	282	10	6	27%	6%	59	-1.1	198/242/289	91	267	7	4	28%	5%	40	-1.0
✕Luis Torrens 2023 · MLB	27	46→47	52→55	46→30	44	238/295/399	161	303	20	3	28%	7%	94	+1.3	232/286/372	140	298	15	4	26%	6%	83	+0.6	227/280/355	128	284	13	2	24%	6%	75	+0.0
✕Steve Holm 2009 · MLB	29	48	47→50	43→40	51	238/314/376	138	280	14	5	20%	8%	96	+1.5	216/280/324	108	269	9	4	22%	7%	68	-0.5	195/257/288	93	248	7	1	23%	6%	48	-0.7
✕Welington Castillo 2015 · MLB	28	50→57	48→55	47→30	47	247/317/391	144	306	16	3	24%	8%	102	+1.8	248/307/421	173	303	22	3	25%	7%	105	+2.1	252/308/433	181	306	25	1	26%	7%	105	+1.4
●James McCann 2018 · MLB	28	49→56	51→50	44→45	44	249/305/404	155	304	19	3	24%	6%	99	+1.7	251/306/404	153	319	19	4	26%	6%	100	+1.7	255/316/415	160	332	21	4	28%	7%	104	+1.1
✕Jett Bandy 2018 · MLB	28	44	49→50	44→45	43	225/287/369	144	265	18	5	23%	5%	83	+0.6	211/274/352	141	265	18	6	27%	5%	74	-0.1	186/251/306	120	242	16	2	29%	4%	50	-0.6
✕Austin Wynns 2019 · MLB	28	47→51	45	47→30	44	235/285/349	114	286	14	3	23%	6%	76	+0.1	223/276/327	104	271	13	4	22%	6%	66	-0.6	235/302/338	104	290	12	3	22%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Anthony Recker 2013 · MLB	29	43→48	51→55	44→45	47	223/298/385	162	285	20	7	28%	9%	92	+1.2	210/278/372	162	283	21	6	32%	8%	80	+0.4	196/276/340	144	260	18	3	31%	9%	67	-0.2
✕Carlos Pérez 2019 · MLB	28	48→47	46→60	47→45	45	239/287/366	127	278	14	6	20%	6%	82	+0.5	215/260/389	174	234	23	4	20%	4%	77	+0.1	218/290/403	184	239	24	0	21%	8%	90	+0.7
✕Gerald Laird 2009 · MLB	29	51→47	45→50	42→50	46	248/303/377	129	294	12	6	20%	6%	91	+1.1	227/295/337	110	264	9	7	17%	7%	78	+0.2	268/338/369	101	310	6	3	14%	8%	97	+0.4
✕Elias Díaz 2019 · MLB	28	53→56	45→50	45	47	260/305/382	122	295	13	5	17%	6%	93	+1.3	243/298/361	118	279	12	3	17%	7%	85	+0.7	242/293/380	138	290	16	0	22%	6%	85	+0.3
✕Austin Romine 2017 · MLB	28	47→53	45	45	42	234/269/358	124	270	12	4	19%	4%	72	-0.2	235/281/361	126	287	14	4	22%	6%	78	+0.2	252/290/392	140	316	18	2	26%	5%	88	+0.3
✕Riley Adams 2023 · MLB	27	41→42	50	42→40	43	209/294/364	155	295	17	3	34%	8%	85	+0.7	225/296/383	158	313	17	4	32%	7%	91	+1.1	219/289/370	151	311	17	2	33%	7%	82	+0.2
✕John Hester 2011 · MLB	27	50	48→55	48→50	42	249/296/406	157	318	14	11	26%	6%	95	+1.4	208/266/322	114	288	12	5	30%	7%	62	-0.9	184/244/291	107	269	11	4	34%	7%	42	-1.0
●Joshua Rodriguez 2013 · AAA	28	47→56	47→50	43→50	45	237/291/369	133	296	14	8	25%	7%	84	+0.6	239/299/358	119	312	11	8	25%	7%	85	+0.7	235/300/354	119	307	11	7	25%	8%	82	+0.4
✕Héctor Sánchez 2017 · MLB	27	42→50	50	44→30	42	222/272/376	154	269	19	3	25%	6%	79	+0.3	229/276/393	164	283	21	5	27%	6%	85	+0.7	219/250/433	213	254	34	0	30%	4%	80	+0.1
✕Chris Woodward 2004 · MLB	28	51→47	49→50	45	49	257/315/412	155	298	16	5	20%	7%	105	+2.1	245/304/368	123	302	10	4	21%	7%	89	+0.9	236/297/339	103	298	6	2	22%	7%	75	-0.0