Rodolfo Castro

2B Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 28 R/R 6'0" / 205 lbs AAA HR +14% Svc 6.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	24	AAA/INTL2 orgs	102	.172/.230/.269	2	0	14	—	.151/.196/.245
2023	24	MLBPHI	256	.211/.298/.322	6	1	75	-0.4
2024	25	AAA/INTL2 orgs	118	.198/.280/.283	2	1	43	—	.176/.233/.235
2025	26	AAA/INTL2 orgs	636	.236/.325/.431	25	19	76	—	.202/.270/.341
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB	28	MLBPHI	24	.226/.292/.378	1	1	86	0.0
2028PROJ33% MLB	29	MLBPHI	89	.224/.289/.372	3	2	83	-0.0
2029PROJ46% MLB	30	MLBPHI	125	.221/.285/.364	4	2	80	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021-2023

Bat Spd57

Barrel%46

Speed46

Avg EV29

xwOBA26

CompsJaCoby Jones (age 28) · Pedro Severino (age 28) · Nick Dini (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†86

AVG/OBP/SLG.226 / .292 / .378

PA24

HR1

K%25

BB%8

BABIP276

ISO182

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT45

xAVG

100.204

POWER55

Barrel%

467.7

Avg EV

2987.5

Bat Spd

5772.1

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED55

Sprint

4627.3

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2021

Service 6.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+0.0	$0.2M	-$3M
Totals		$3M		$0.2M	-$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	17	ROK	DSL Pirates	—	230	192	52	15	3	2	27	48	3	2	1	271	369	411	781	141	338	21	12	340	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK	GCL Pirates	—	211	188	52	12	4	6	16	47	4	4	3	277	346	479	825	202	338	22	8	358	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A	West Virginia Power	—	426	385	89	19	4	12	26	100	1	6	3	231	282	395	676	164	276	23	6	290	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	27	26	7	0	0	0	1	12	0	0	0	269	296	269	566		500	44	4	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+	Bradenton Marauders	—	215	202	49	13	1	5	13	54	0	1	0	243	288	391	679	149	308	25	6	302	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	246	215	52	13	2	14	18	68	5	6	5	242	315	516	831	274	271	28	7	350	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	93	86	17	2	0	5	6	27	1	0	0	198	258	395	653	198	222	29	6	290	88	-1	+0	-0	+2	+2	0.2
2021	22	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	38	35	10	4	0	3	3	11	0	0	0	286	342	657	999	371	333	29	8	426	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA	Altoona Curve	—	312	285	69	14	1	12	19	72	4	7	4	242	299	425	723	182	278	23	6	317	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	INTL	Toros del Este	—	109	85	20	6	2	1	22	26	1	2	1	235	398	388	786	153	322	24	20	358	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	278	253	59	8	4	11	22	74	2	5	3	233	300	427	727	194	284	27	8	320	107	+2	-0	-2	+3	+6	0.9
2022	23	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	314	272	67	13	2	12	32	86	6	6	3	246	339	441	780	195	309	27	10	343	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	INTL	Toros del Este	—	119	98	22	2	0	1	14	31	5	6	2	224	350	276	626	51	313	26	12	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	256	227	48	7	0	6	23	74	5	1	4	211	298	322	620	110	284	29	9	285	75	-8	-1	-4	+4	+6	-0.4
2023	24	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	57	52	10	2	0	2	3	21	1	0	0	192	250	346	596	154	267	37	5	263	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	INTL	Toros del Este	—	45	41	6	1	0	0	2	11	1	0	0	146	205	171	375	24	200	24	4	176	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	73	67	14	1	0	2	5	18	1	0	2	209	274	313	587	104	255	25	7	269	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	45	39	7	2	0	0	6	9	0	1	0	179	289	231	520	51	233	20	13	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	525	456	107	26	1	19	54	119	9	18	8	235	328	421	749	186	272	23	10	331	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	111	99	24	5	0	6	7	28	3	1	1	242	312	475	787	232	277	25	6	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	627	566	124	17	4	22	51	175	8	6	7	219	293	380	673	161	275	28	8	301	90	-7	-2	-6	+8	+14	0.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates	—	230	200	35	9	2	1	19	59	3	2	1	175	257	255	512	80	220	26	8	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Pirates	—	211	195	39	8	3	4	9	68	4	4	3	200	250	333	583	133	277	32	4	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A MLE	West Virginia Power	—	426	394	76	16	3	8	17	135	1	6	3	193	228	310	538	117	254	32	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+ MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	215	206	40	11	1	4	9	76	0	1	0	194	228	316	543	121	283	35	4	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	246	221	41	11	2	11	12	93	5	6	5	186	244	403	646	217	225	38	5	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	93	86	17	2	0	5	6	27	1	0	0	198	258	395	653	198	222	29	6	298	88	-1	+0	-0	+2	+2	0.2
2021	22	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	38	36	8	3	0	2	2	14	0	0	0	222	263	472	735	250	292	37	5	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	312	291	63	13	1	10	13	89	4	7	4	216	260	371	631	155	264	29	4	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	278	253	60	8	4	12	22	74	2	5	3	237	303	443	746	206	284	27	8	326	107	+2	-0	-2	+3	+6	0.9
2022	23	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	314	282	58	12	2	8	22	105	6	6	3	206	277	348	625	142	280	33	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	256	228	48	7	0	6	22	74	5	1	4	211	294	320	614	110	284	29	9	279	75	-8	-1	-4	+4	+6	-0.4
2023	24	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	57	53	8	2	0	1	2	26	1	0	0	151	196	245	442	94	245	46	4	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	73	68	12	1	0	1	4	21	1	0	2	176	233	235	468	59	243	29	5	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	525	475	96	22	1	14	35	143	9	18	8	202	270	341	611	139	247	27	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates	—	230	200	35	9	2	1	19	59	3	2	1	175	257	255	512	80	233	26	8	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates	—	230	192	52	15	3	2	27	48	3	2	1	271	369	411	781	141	338	21	12	340	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Pirates	—	211	195	39	8	3	4	9	68	4	4	3	200	250	333	583	133	282	32	4	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	GCL Pirates	—	211	188	52	12	4	6	16	47	4	4	3	277	346	479	825	202	338	22	8	358	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	453	420	82	17	4	9	18	143	1	6	3	195	230	319	549	124	266	32	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	453	411	96	19	4	12	27	112	1	6	3	234	282	387	669	153	287	25	6	288	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	461	427	81	21	3	15	21	169	5	7	5	190	236	358	595	169	264	37	5	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	461	417	101	26	3	19	31	122	5	7	5	242	302	456	758	213	290	26	7	328	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	4 teams	—	552	515	111	23	1	22	26	161	6	9	5	216	261	392	654	177	264	29	5	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA RAW	4 teams	—	552	491	116	26	3	21	50	136	6	9	5	236	314	430	744	193	280	25	9	328	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	711	638	140	23	7	24	53	215	13	17	8	219	293	390	683	171	286	30	7	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	711	623	148	23	6	24	68	191	13	17	8	238	325	409	735	172	300	27	10	326	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	358	320	64	10	0	8	28	114	7	1	4	200	279	306	585	106	280	32	8	264	65	-15	-1	-4	+4	+8	-0.9
2023	24	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	358	320	64	10	0	8	28	106	7	1	4	200	279	306	585	106	269	30	8	268	65	-15	-1	-4	+4	+8	-0.9
2024	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	118	111	20	1	0	2	6	34	1	1	2	180	229	243	472	63	240	29	5	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	118	106	21	3	0	2	11	27	1	1	2	198	280	283	563	85	247	23	9	262	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	636	573	115	26	1	17	43	174	12	19	9	201	271	339	609	138	253	27	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	636	555	131	31	1	25	61	147	12	19	9	236	325	431	755	195	272	23	10	333	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates	—	230	206	35	9	2	1	19	59	3	2	1	170	257	248	504	78	220	26	8	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Pirates	—	211	196	39	8	3	4	9	68	4	4	3	199	250	332	582	133	277	32	4	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	453	431	82	17	4	9	18	143	1	6	3	190	230	311	541	121	254	32	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	461	432	81	21	3	15	21	169	5	7	5	188	236	354	590	167	252	37	5	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	4 teams	—	552	515	111	23	1	22	26	161	6	9	5	216	261	392	654	177	258	29	5	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	711	639	140	23	7	24	53	215	13	17	8	219	293	390	682	171	282	30	7	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	358	320	64	10	0	8	28	114	7	1	4	200	279	306	585	106	277	32	8	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	118	110	20	1	0	2	6	34	1	1	2	182	229	245	474	64	243	29	5	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	636	576	115	26	1	17	43	174	12	19	9	200	271	337	608	137	247	27	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	118	110	20	1	0	2	6	34	1	1	2	182	229	245	474	64	243	29	5	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	636	576	115	26	1	17	43	174	12	19	9	200	271	337	608	137	247	27	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	PHI	10%	380	345	77	16	1	11	27	96	5	9	4	224	290	371	661	147	276	25	7	295	86	-6	+0	-1	+1	+8	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	PHI	10%	24	22	5	1	0	1	2	6	0	1	0	226	292	378	670	152	276	25	8	298	86	-0	+0	-0	+0	+1	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	PHI	33%	272	247	54	11	1	7	19	69	4	5	2	222	287	365	652	143	275	25	7	291	83	-5	+0	-2	+1	+6	-0.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	PHI	46%	272	247	54	11	1	7	19	70	4	4	2	219	284	357	641	138	273	26	7	287	80	-6	+0	-3	+1	+6	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	PHI	33%	89	82	19	4	0	3	6	23	1	2	1	224	289	372	661	149	275	26	7	295	83	-2	+0	-1	+0	+2	-0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	PHI	46%	125	113	25	5	0	4	9	32	2	2	1	221	285	364	650	144	273	26	7	290	80	-3	+0	-1	+0	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	841	761	168	26	4	29	66	230	11	10	9	221	292	380	672	159	275	27	8	299	69	-12	-2	-8	+9	+18	0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	129	20	3	22	51	178	9	8	7	219	292	376	668	156	274	27	8	299	69	-9	-1	-6	+7	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4512	4109	844	170	24	123	278	1336	63	81	46	205	266	348	615	143	268	30	6	270	69	-23	-1	-12	+11	+31	0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	121	24	3	18	40	192	9	12	7	204	265	346	611	142	265	30	6	270	69	-11	-0	-5	+5	+14	0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 525 PAwOBA .326 → .269 (−58)K% 22.7% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.67%	÷0.996	×1.200	—	—	27.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.29%	÷1.075	×0.690	—	×1.018	6.72%
HBP% /PA	1.71%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.64%
Singles /BIP	18.10%	÷0.986	×0.930	×0.997	×1.018	17.34%
Doubles /BIP	7.72%	÷1.018	×0.830	×0.997	×1.018	6.39%
Triples /BIP	0.30%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.997	×1.018	0.32%
Home runs /BIP	5.64%	÷0.947	×0.700	—	×1.018	4.24%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 99, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .326 → .269; ISO .186 → .146; BABIP .272 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 73 PAwOBA .262 → .220 (−41)K% 24.7% → 28.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.66%	÷1.022	×1.200	—	—	28.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.85%	÷1.021	×0.690	—	×1.033	4.78%
HBP% /PA	1.37%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.33%
Singles /BIP	22.45%	÷0.985	×0.930	×0.993	×1.033	21.73%
Doubles /BIP	2.04%	÷0.960	×0.830	×0.993	×1.033	1.81%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.993	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.08%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×1.033	2.98%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .262 → .220; ISO .104 → .076; BABIP .255 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 57 PAwOBA .260 → .198 (−62)K% 36.8% → 45.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	36.84%	÷0.967	×1.200	—	—	45.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.26%	÷1.056	×0.690	—	×1.048	3.61%
HBP% /PA	1.75%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.73%
Singles /BIP	19.35%	÷1.004	×0.930	—	×1.048	18.80%
Doubles /BIP	6.45%	÷1.013	×0.830	—	×1.048	5.54%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.45%	÷1.095	×0.700	—	×1.048	4.32%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 101, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 93, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .260 → .198; ISO .154 → .099; BABIP .267 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 314 PAwOBA .339 → .276 (−62)K% 27.4% → 33.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.39%	÷0.982	×1.200	—	—	33.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.19%	÷1.058	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.98%
HBP% /PA	1.91%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.89%
Singles /BIP	21.51%	÷1.087	×0.930	×1.019	×1.050	19.68%
Doubles /BIP	6.99%	÷0.964	×0.830	×1.019	×1.050	6.44%
Triples /BIP	1.08%	÷0.942	×0.970	×1.019	×1.050	1.18%
Home runs /BIP	6.45%	÷1.013	×0.700	—	×1.050	4.68%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 117, 2B 93, 3B 88, K 96, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .339 → .276; ISO .195 → .152; BABIP .309 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAltoona Curve · 312 PAwOBA .310 → .272 (−38)K% 23.1% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.08%	÷0.992	×1.220	—	—	28.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.77%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×1.042	4.09%
HBP% /PA	1.28%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	1.14%
Singles /BIP	19.72%	÷1.042	×0.940	×1.017	×1.042	18.84%
Doubles /BIP	6.57%	÷0.948	×0.870	×1.017	×1.042	6.39%
Triples /BIP	0.47%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.017	×1.042	0.40%
Home runs /BIP	5.63%	÷0.947	×0.780	—	×1.042	4.84%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 108, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.

Result: wOBA .310 → .272; ISO .182 → .158; BABIP .278 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 38 PAwOBA .413 → .304 (−109)K% 28.9% → 36.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.95%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	36.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.89%	÷1.100	×0.690	—	×1.050	5.20%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	12.50%	÷1.011	×0.930	—	×1.050	12.07%
Doubles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.986	×0.830	—	×1.050	14.72%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.914	×0.920	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	12.50%	÷1.096	×0.700	—	×1.050	8.38%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 83, K 92, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .413 → .304; ISO .371 → .254; BABIP .333 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AGreensboro Grasshoppers · 246 PAwOBA .350 → .271 (−79)K% 27.6% → 37.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.64%	÷0.983	×1.340	—	—	37.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.32%	÷0.990	×0.660	—	×1.030	5.02%
HBP% /PA	2.03%	—	×0.770	—	×1.030	1.61%
Singles /BIP	15.65%	÷1.113	×0.920	×0.950	×1.030	12.66%
Doubles /BIP	8.84%	÷0.914	×0.820	×0.950	×1.030	7.76%
Triples /BIP	1.36%	÷0.900	×0.940	×0.950	×1.030	1.39%
Home runs /BIP	9.52%	÷1.009	×0.820	—	×1.030	7.97%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 123, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .350 → .271; ISO .274 → .220; BABIP .271 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Bradenton Marauders · 215 PAwOBA .290 → .232 (−58)K% 25.1% → 35.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.12%	÷1.005	×1.420	—	—	35.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.12%	÷0.999	×0.750	—	×1.042	4.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.27%	÷0.993	×0.920	×0.950	×1.042	18.60%
Doubles /BIP	8.78%	÷1.005	×0.960	×0.950	×1.042	8.31%
Triples /BIP	0.68%	÷0.915	×0.810	×0.950	×1.042	0.59%
Home runs /BIP	3.38%	÷1.069	×0.880	—	×1.042	2.90%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 99, 2B 101, 3B 83, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .290 → .232; ISO .149 → .117; BABIP .308 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dave Roberts'72-'82 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,189 PA	3.3	2,189	49	27	236*	284*	386*	+12	-13	2.9	4.1
/162	664	15	8	+3.8	-4.0	0.9	pk7: 5
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Conor Gillaspielast yr '17 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,503 PA	2.3	1,503	32	1	252	305	394	+5	-14	2.2	2.2
/162	664	14	0	+2.4	-6.1	1.0	pk7: 2
#4Jeff Branson'92-'01 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,720 PA	2.6	1,720	34	9	236*	291*	373*	+9	-3	0.8	1.8
/162	664	13	3	+3.4	-1.1	0.3	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.3	864	28	10	221	290	378	+5	-7	1.3	1.3
/162	664	22	8	+3.5	-5.2	1.0	pk7: 1
#5Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#6Hector Cruz'73-'82 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,806 PA	2.7	1,806	39	7	220*	298*	381*	-7	-19	-1.2	-0.5
/162	664	14	3	-2.6	-7.1	-0.4	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rodolfo Castro (OGILVIE)	28	45	55	55	50	222/288/368	145	276	7	6	25%	7%	86	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕JaCoby Jones 2020 · MLB	28	45→50	49→50	52→50	41	226/289/387	161	305	16	14	30%	6%	90	+0.6	215/276/358	143	322	15	9	36%	6%	78	-0.3	188/243/300	112	308	13	5	41%	6%	50	-0.8
✕Pedro Severino 2021 · MLB	28	46→49	48→50	48→45	49	235/302/377	141	277	17	6	22%	8%	92	+0.7	239/299/371	132	304	15	6	25%	7%	89	+0.5	230/286/351	121	293	13	6	25%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Nick Dini 2021 · MLB	28	43	52→50	49→50	43	225/277/384	159	259	20	12	23%	6%	85	+0.2	216/284/360	144	260	18	9	24%	7%	82	-0.0	167/263/289	122	202	17	8	26%	9%	56	-0.7
✕Scott Kingery 2021 · MLB	27	46→52	50→55	51→55	43	231/286/395	164	297	17	13	28%	6%	91	+0.6	198/268/319	121	296	11	18	34%	8%	66	-1.1	188/230/314	126	255	15	17	32%	5%	48	-1.3
✕Alan Trejo 2024 · MLB	28	46	48→55	45	41	233/280/378	146	290	15	9	25%	5%	84	+0.2	220/272/348	128	279	13	8	25%	6%	74	-0.6	208/258/332	123	263	13	5	26%	6%	63	-0.8
✕Kevin Smith 2024 · MLB	28	41→45	51→55	53→50	38	217/263/375	158	290	20	14	32%	6%	78	-0.3	214/261/332	118	324	13	17	36%	5%	66	-1.1	187/232/249	62	318	4	23	40%	4%	35	-1.5
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2012 · MLB	28	46→48	52→55	51→50	43	241/290/408	167	285	20	14	24%	6%	95	+1.0	236/294/397	161	283	18	7	23%	7%	94	+0.9	227/291/386	158	273	17	3	23%	7%	91	+0.4
✕Mario Lisson 2012 · AAA	28	44→49	50	51→55	39	226/276/380	154	295	18	16	30%	6%	84	+0.1	222/287/366	144	279	16	15	26%	7%	84	+0.2	222/292/345	123	288	15	8	27%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Rylan Bannon 2024 · MLB	28	40→47	49→50	47→50	50	208/293/355	147	263	18	14	28%	10%	84	+0.2	205/299/343	138	278	15	12	29%	11%	84	+0.1	174/284/300	125	238	14	10	30%	12%	68	-0.9
✕Chris Owings 2020 · MLB	28	42→52	47→50	48→55	40	216/266/349	134	285	15	16	30%	6%	72	-0.7	214/275/356	142	296	16	14	31%	7%	78	-0.3	179/254/288	109	254	13	11	33%	8%	52	-1.2
✕Connor Wong 2024 · MLB	28	45→55	48→55	49→50	39	227/279/369	142	307	15	11	31%	6%	82	-0.0	239/298/363	124	307	13	10	25%	7%	87	+0.4	238/302/350	112	300	11	9	23%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Chip Ambres 2008 · MLB	28	42→50	48→50	48→50	49	217/291/354	137	271	16	10	26%	9%	83	+0.1	216/279/357	141	262	16	7	23%	8%	79	-0.2	210/271/350	140	249	15	6	22%	7%	72	-0.6
✕Marshall McDougall 2007 · MLB	28	50→53	50	53→45	46	252/309/411	159	315	18	11	25%	8%	102	+1.5	228/264/371	143	259	16	6	19%	5%	76	-0.4	252/298/395	143	271	18	7	15%	6%	92	+0.4
✕Guillermo Rodriguez 2006 · AA	28	43	49→50	51→45	39	221/278/370	149	284	16	9	28%	5%	82	-0.0	225/287/366	141	261	15	6	20%	7%	84	+0.2	222/287/355	133	247	15	2	17%	7%	80	-0.0
✕Taylor Motter 2018 · MLB	28	43→49	48→50	53→55	48	220/278/361	141	250	16	22	20%	7%	79	-0.2	185/249/315	130	225	15	13	25%	7%	59	-1.7	198/274/355	157	245	19	5	27%	9%	76	-0.3
✕Carlos Pérez 2019 · MLB	28	47→49	46→55	47→45	46	237/286/363	126	276	14	6	20%	6%	82	+0.0	211/256/362	151	231	19	4	19%	5%	72	-0.7	207/273/379	172	226	22	0	20%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Tim Olson 2006 · MLB	27	46	48→50	45→50	45	233/292/380	148	284	15	12	24%	7%	89	+0.5	225/269/352	127	292	14	12	27%	5%	74	-0.6	203/242/308	104	268	12	12	28%	5%	51	-0.9
✕Braden Bishop 2022 · MLB	28	50→57	47→50	52→50	44	246/302/394	147	304	14	13	23%	6%	95	+1.0	225/281/347	122	293	12	17	26%	6%	77	-0.3	192/246/278	86	258	10	22	28%	6%	45	-1.3
✕Kevin Padlo 2024 · MLB	28	40→42	47→55	49→50	46	204/276/339	135	275	15	12	31%	9%	74	-0.6	196/275/323	127	279	14	14	32%	9%	70	-0.8	141/233/249	109	200	13	15	35%	10%	38	-1.6
✕Chris Herrmann 2017 · MLB	29	46→51	47→50	56→50	46	229/292/369	140	293	14	11	26%	8%	86	+0.3	217/299/371	154	282	18	8	28%	10%	90	+0.6	203/292/351	148	265	19	4	29%	11%	82	+0.0

Rodolfo Castro

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps