Alex Isola — OGILVIE

Alex IsolaC St. Paul Saints

Age 28 R/R 6'0" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .271 / .321

PA250

HR5

K%24

BB%8

ISO119

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 46 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT46

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE48

scouting grade only

SPEED46

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	62	57	14	3	0	2	4	13	0	0	0	246	295	404	699	158	279	21	6	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	62	56	15	3	0	2	5	9	0	0	0	268	328	429	756	161	283	15	8	331	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	418	380	73	12	0	16	35	122	2	1	0	192	264	350	614	158	235	29	8	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	418	362	88	15	0	17	53	89	2	1	0	243	343	425	768	182	276	21	13	344	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	2 teams	—	314	280	65	9	0	12	29	81	1	0	1	232	306	393	699	161	277	26	9	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	2 teams	—	314	267	73	14	0	10	42	56	1	0	1	273	374	438	812	165	307	18	13	360	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	465	422	96	21	0	12	36	125	6	5	2	227	297	363	660	135	294	27	8	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	465	408	114	22	0	20	50	100	6	5	2	279	366	480	847	201	325	22	11	375	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	2 teams	—	352	318	55	12	0	6	27	85	2	4	2	173	242	267	509	94	211	24	8	232	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	2 teams	—	352	307	66	15	0	7	38	68	2	4	2	215	305	332	638	117	249	19	11	289	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	MIN	—	250	227	46	10	0	5	19	61	2	3	1	203	270	313	583	110	253	24	8	270	64	-10	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	MIN	27%	323	292	61	13	1	7	25	79	3	4	1	209	278	332	610	123	257	24	8	273	67	-12	+0	-1	+6	+9	0.2
2028	30	MLB	MIN	37%	343	310	65	13	1	8	27	84	3	3	1	210	279	335	615	126	258	24	8	274	68	-12	+0	-2	+6	+10	0.2
2029	31	MLB	MIN	43%	332	300	62	13	1	7	26	82	3	3	1	207	277	327	603	120	258	25	8	273	67	-12	+0	-3	+6	+9	0.0
2027	29	MLB	MIN	27%	88	80	16	3	0	2	7	21	1	1	0	200	273	312	585	112	257	24	8	268	63	-4	+0	-0	+2	+2	0.0
2028	30	MLB	MIN	37%	128	116	24	5	0	3	10	31	1	1	0	207	276	328	603	121	258	24	8	269	64	-5	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.0
2029	31	MLB	MIN	43%	144	131	27	6	0	3	11	36	1	1	0	206	273	321	593	115	258	25	8	267	62	-6	+0	-1	+3	+4	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	360	327	67	14	0	8	28	88	3	3	0	205	274	321	595	116	253	24	8	268	63	-15	+1	-2	+6	+10	-0.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	120	25	0	14	51	159	5	5	0	203	272	317	589	114	252	24	8	268	63	-27	+1	-4	+12	+18	-0.0
Career	—			—	2859	2586	537	106	3	75	228	732	22	23	9	208	278	338	615	130	257	26	8	273	67	-105	+1	-6	+51	+81	2.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	122	24	1	17	52	166	5	5	2	207	278	338	616	131	257	26	8	273	67	-24	+0	-1	+12	+18	0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	62	56	15	3	2	5	9	0	0	0	268	328	429	756	161	283	15	8	331	112	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2021	23	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	418	362	88	15	17	53	89	2	1	0	243	343	425	768	182	276	21	13	344	121	+10	+0	—	—	+12	2.3
2022	24	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	247	210	60	9	10	32	45	1	0	1	286	383	471	854	186	314	18	13	375	145	+13	-0	—	—	+7	2.0
2022	24	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	67	57	13	5	0	10	11	0	0	0	228	343	316	659	88	283	16	15	308	94	-0	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2023	25	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	465	408	114	22	20	50	100	6	5	2	279	366	480	847	201	325	22	11	375	145	+24	+0	—	—	+13	3.8
2024	26	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	274	237	51	13	5	31	53	1	4	1	215	309	333	642	118	250	19	11	290	80	-6	+0	—	—	+8	0.2
2024	26	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	78	70	15	2	2	7	15	1	0	1	214	295	329	623	114	245	19	9	286	77	-2	-0	—	—	+2	-0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	385	8	4	209	275	330	+7	+4	0.3	0.3
	/162	664	15	7	209	275	330	+11.9	+6.9	0.5	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alex Isola (OGILVIE)	28	46	40	46	48	203/271/321	118	253	5	3	24%	8%	64	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Danny Mendick 2022 · MLB	28	46→49	43→45	43→50	46	225/285/331	105	277	11	8	23%	7%	72	-0.2	236/295/361	125	290	14	12	23%	7%	84	+0.6	230/289/365	135	277	15	15	22%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Jonathan Morales 2023 · AAA	28	44→47	41→40	46→30	46	215/272/307	92	262	10	4	22%	7%	60	-1.0	216/269/333	117	257	14	5	21%	6%	66	-0.6	197/248/312	115	226	14	1	20%	6%	50	-1.2
✕Dan Butler 2015 · MLB	28	43→38	43→45	44→40	43	213/270/326	113	269	11	3	25%	6%	64	-0.8	220/284/316	96	287	6	3	24%	7%	67	-0.5	220/291/305	85	286	5	0	23%	8%	65	-0.3
✕Spencer Kieboom 2019 · MLB	28	45	41→40	46→30	51	217/286/311	94	261	9	3	20%	8%	67	-0.5	208/267/301	93	263	8	6	23%	7%	56	-1.3	164/215/211	46	217	2	0	24%	6%	7	-1.5
✕Xavier Fernández 2023 · AAA	28	46	42→50	46→40	43	227/270/325	98	274	10	5	22%	5%	63	-0.8	239/291/381	142	289	15	5	22%	6%	88	+0.9	245/302/415	170	290	18	0	22%	7%	98	+1.1
✕Tres Barrera 2023 · MLB	28	44→42	44→45	40	47	218/286/328	110	273	12	3	24%	8%	72	-0.2	206/270/321	115	260	14	5	25%	7%	63	-0.8	179/247/271	92	226	13	2	26%	7%	38	-1.1
✕Gavin Collins 2022 · AAA	27	41	45→50	44→40	44	208/276/324	116	260	13	6	25%	7%	67	-0.5	222/290/349	127	278	15	6	25%	7%	79	+0.3	211/275/318	107	244	12	3	18%	6%	62	-0.3
✕Brad Cresse 2006 · AAA	28	41	43→50	47→30	43	202/267/321	119	264	10	6	27%	7%	63	-0.9	218/278/353	135	306	15	6	32%	7%	75	-0.0	206/269/340	134	293	18	0	35%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Alex De Goti 2023 · AAA	28	44→47	42→45	51→50	49	214/289/322	109	281	8	8	26%	9%	71	-0.3	199/276/283	84	272	7	10	27%	9%	56	-1.3	177/262/235	58	247	4	10	27%	9%	36	-1.2
✕Javi Herrera 2009 · AAA	28	46	41→40	43→45	49	219/301/313	94	275	8	7	22%	8%	75	-0.0	211/289/313	102	278	9	9	26%	8%	69	-0.4	130/224/199	69	170	6	0	25%	9%	16	-0.7
✕Austin Wynns 2019 · MLB	28	47→51	45	47→30	44	235/285/349	114	286	14	3	23%	6%	76	+0.1	223/276/327	104	271	13	4	22%	6%	66	-0.6	235/302/338	104	290	12	3	22%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Grayson Greiner 2020 · MLB	27	42	45	45→30	45	212/276/331	119	282	13	3	29%	8%	68	-0.5	203/266/324	121	314	14	4	37%	7%	63	-0.9	179/245/267	88	331	10	1	45%	7%	36	-0.9
✕Dusty Brown 2011 · AAA	29	42	44→45	47→30	43	212/272/328	116	281	12	3	28%	7%	66	-0.6	219/288/371	152	273	16	5	25%	8%	84	+0.6	214/294/383	169	256	18	1	23%	9%	90	+0.3
✕Jake Kahaulelio 2012 · AA	27	42→43	44→45	45	45	209/272/323	114	256	11	6	23%	6%	65	-0.7	213/288/314	101	260	8	11	20%	7%	69	-0.4	192/299/242	50	227	0	23	13%	9%	56	-0.2
✕Jose Trevino 2021 · MLB	28	43→52	43→45	47→40	41	215/250/332	116	254	10	5	20%	4%	56	-1.3	233/270/355	122	268	14	4	18%	5%	71	-0.3	225/275/347	122	245	17	2	17%	6%	70	-0.1
✕Caonabo Cosme 2007 · AAA	28	42	45→50	45	41	213/262/334	121	271	13	8	27%	6%	63	-0.8	223/253/356	133	316	15	7	33%	4%	64	-0.8	225/246/359	134	324	16	4	35%	3%	58	-0.5
✕Arturo Rodriguez 2019 · AAA	27	45→42	43→45	47→30	42	222/265/326	104	274	11	6	24%	6%	62	-0.9	262/297/411	149	294	20	6	18%	4%	98	+1.6	288/318/439	151	312	24	2	16%	3%	109	+1.3
✕Juan Brito 2006 · MLB	28	44	43→45	47→40	41	220/267/323	104	284	11	5	27%	6%	62	-0.9	230/276/343	113	300	11	4	26%	6%	71	-0.3	232/277/338	106	302	10	0	26%	5%	67	-0.2
✕Alvin Colina 2010 · AAA	28	42	46→45	44→40	40	214/267/340	125	281	14	5	29%	6%	67	-0.5	213/261/339	126	288	14	8	30%	5%	64	-0.8	173/213/279	105	237	13	3	32%	3%	26	-1.1
✕Beamer Weems 2015 · AAA	28	43→47	43→45	47→40	40	215/264/325	110	285	11	9	28%	6%	61	-1.0	207/257/304	97	252	8	7	20%	6%	52	-1.6	180/230/251	71	218	3	0	18%	6%	23	-1.4