Blaze Alexander
3B Baltimore Orioles| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAAARI | 225 | .276/.356/.444 | 5 | 4 | 71 | — | .212/.279/.330 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLBARI | 185 | .247/.321/.343 | 3 | 3 | 88 | 0.3 | |
| 2025 | 26 | AAAARI | 241 | .284/.416/.479 | 8 | 11 | 117 | — | .255/.361/.402 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLBARI | 266 | .230/.324/.383 | 7 | 4 | 97 | 0.7 | |
| 2026 | 27 | MLBBAL | 289 | .303/.357/.414 | 4 | 10 | 113 | 1.1 | |
| 2027PROJ | 28 | MLBBAL | 296 | .258/.329/.395 | 7 | 12 | 102 | 0.9 | |
| 2028PROJ92% MLB | 29 | MLBBAL | 268 | .254/.326/.387 | 6 | 10 | 99 | 0.6 | |
| 2029PROJ92% MLB | 30 | MLBBAL | 264 | .250/.321/.378 | 6 | 8 | 95 | 0.4 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | Missoula Osprey | — | 247 | 210 | 69 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 52 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 329 | 422 | 538 | 960 | 210 | 410 | 21 | 13 | 417 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Kane County Cougars | — | 406 | 343 | 90 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 42 | 89 | 12 | 14 | 4 | 262 | 363 | 382 | 745 | 120 | 324 | 22 | 10 | 333 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 389 | 339 | 74 | 16 | 3 | 10 | 44 | 126 | 5 | 17 | 4 | 218 | 317 | 372 | 689 | 153 | 314 | 32 | 11 | 312 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 34 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 412 | 519 | 930 | 259 | 294 | 24 | 12 | 414 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 363 | 317 | 97 | 17 | 3 | 17 | 33 | 92 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 306 | 389 | 539 | 928 | 233 | 383 | 25 | 9 | 404 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 305 | 247 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 42 | 83 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 291 | 415 | 457 | 872 | 166 | 398 | 27 | 14 | 385 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | ROK | ACL D-backs Black | — | 23 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 304 | 636 | 941 | 364 | 267 | 22 | 0 | 403 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 185 | 166 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 49 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 247 | 321 | 343 | 664 | 96 | 333 | 26 | 8 | 302 | 88 | -3 | +0 | -3 | +4 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 225 | 196 | 54 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 69 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 276 | 356 | 444 | 800 | 168 | 392 | 31 | 8 | 352 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 266 | 230 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 86 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 230 | 324 | 383 | 707 | 152 | 333 | 32 | 8 | 316 | 97 | -1 | -2 | +2 | +2 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 241 | 194 | 55 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 38 | 59 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 284 | 416 | 479 | 895 | 196 | 364 | 24 | 16 | 396 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 289 | 261 | 79 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 63 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 303 | 357 | 414 | 770 | 111 | 385 | 22 | 7 | 342 | 113 | +4 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +6 | 1.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 740 | 657 | 173 | 32 | 3 | 14 | 56 | 198 | 17 | 17 | 10 | 263 | 336 | 385 | 721 | 122 | 356 | 27 | 8 | 323 | 105 | +4 | -1 | -3 | +7 | +16 | 2.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | Missoula Osprey | — | 247 | 222 | 52 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 75 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 234 | 303 | 374 | 677 | 140 | 321 | 30 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | Kane County Cougars | — | 406 | 357 | 75 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 122 | 12 | 14 | 4 | 210 | 290 | 305 | 595 | 95 | 281 | 30 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 389 | 352 | 52 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 175 | 5 | 17 | 4 | 148 | 227 | 244 | 471 | 97 | 259 | 45 | 8 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 34 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 353 | 357 | 710 | 143 | 268 | 29 | 9 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 363 | 327 | 87 | 15 | 3 | 13 | 23 | 111 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 266 | 333 | 450 | 783 | 183 | 352 | 31 | 6 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 305 | 261 | 66 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 105 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 253 | 348 | 379 | 727 | 126 | 368 | 34 | 9 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Black | — | 23 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 174 | 318 | 492 | 182 | 185 | 30 | 0 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 185 | 166 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 49 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 241 | 315 | 331 | 647 | 90 | 333 | 26 | 8 | 298 | 88 | -3 | +0 | -3 | +4 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 225 | 203 | 43 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 86 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 212 | 279 | 330 | 609 | 118 | 339 | 38 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 266 | 230 | 52 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 86 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 226 | 321 | 374 | 695 | 148 | 333 | 32 | 8 | 311 | 97 | -1 | -2 | +2 | +2 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 241 | 204 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 69 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 255 | 361 | 402 | 763 | 147 | 345 | 29 | 12 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 289 | 264 | 78 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 63 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 295 | 350 | 405 | 755 | 110 | 385 | 22 | 6 | 335 | 113 | +4 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +6 | 1.1 |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | Missoula Osprey | — | 247 | 222 | 52 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 75 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 234 | 303 | 374 | 677 | 140 | 329 | 30 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK RAW | Missoula Osprey | — | 247 | 210 | 69 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 52 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 329 | 422 | 538 | 960 | 210 | 410 | 21 | 13 | 417 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | Kane County Cougars | — | 406 | 357 | 75 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 122 | 12 | 14 | 4 | 210 | 290 | 305 | 595 | 95 | 290 | 30 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A RAW | Kane County Cougars | — | 406 | 343 | 90 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 42 | 89 | 12 | 14 | 4 | 262 | 363 | 382 | 745 | 120 | 324 | 22 | 10 | 333 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 389 | 352 | 52 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 175 | 5 | 17 | 4 | 148 | 227 | 244 | 471 | 97 | 263 | 45 | 8 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ RAW | Hillsboro Hops | — | 389 | 339 | 74 | 16 | 3 | 10 | 44 | 126 | 5 | 17 | 4 | 218 | 317 | 372 | 689 | 153 | 314 | 32 | 11 | 312 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 397 | 356 | 92 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 25 | 121 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 258 | 330 | 438 | 768 | 180 | 351 | 30 | 6 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 397 | 344 | 104 | 18 | 3 | 19 | 37 | 100 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 302 | 391 | 538 | 929 | 235 | 376 | 25 | 9 | 405 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 328 | 283 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 112 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 244 | 335 | 375 | 710 | 131 | 367 | 34 | 9 | 314 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 328 | 269 | 78 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 88 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 290 | 407 | 472 | 879 | 182 | 386 | 27 | 13 | 387 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 410 | 369 | 84 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 135 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 228 | 298 | 336 | 634 | 108 | 338 | 33 | 7 | 284 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 410 | 362 | 95 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 34 | 118 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 262 | 340 | 398 | 738 | 135 | 364 | 29 | 8 | 329 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 434 | 105 | 21 | 2 | 14 | 50 | 155 | 16 | 15 | 7 | 242 | 342 | 396 | 738 | 154 | 340 | 31 | 10 | 325 | 106 | +4 | +0 | +2 | +2 | +11 | 1.9 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 507 | 424 | 108 | 24 | 2 | 15 | 60 | 145 | 16 | 15 | 7 | 255 | 368 | 427 | 795 | 172 | 348 | 29 | 12 | 354 | 106 | +4 | +0 | +2 | +2 | +11 | 1.9 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 289 | 264 | 78 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 63 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 295 | 350 | 405 | 755 | 110 | 374 | 22 | 6 | 335 | 113 | +4 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +6 | 1.1 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB RAW | Baltimore Orioles | — | 289 | 261 | 79 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 63 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 303 | 357 | 414 | 770 | 111 | 385 | 22 | 7 | 342 | 113 | +4 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +6 | 1.1 |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | Missoula Osprey | — | 247 | 223 | 52 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 75 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 233 | 303 | 372 | 675 | 139 | 321 | 30 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | Kane County Cougars | — | 406 | 363 | 75 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 122 | 12 | 14 | 4 | 207 | 290 | 300 | 590 | 94 | 281 | 30 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 389 | 350 | 52 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 175 | 5 | 17 | 4 | 149 | 227 | 246 | 473 | 97 | 259 | 45 | 8 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 397 | 356 | 92 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 25 | 121 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 258 | 330 | 438 | 768 | 180 | 345 | 30 | 6 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 328 | 286 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 112 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 241 | 335 | 371 | 706 | 129 | 355 | 34 | 9 | 314 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 410 | 370 | 84 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 135 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 227 | 298 | 335 | 633 | 108 | 336 | 33 | 7 | 284 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 436 | 105 | 21 | 2 | 14 | 50 | 155 | 16 | 15 | 7 | 241 | 342 | 394 | 736 | 154 | 339 | 31 | 10 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 289 | 265 | 78 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 63 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 294 | 350 | 404 | 753 | 109 | 385 | 22 | 6 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 410 | 370 | 84 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 135 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 227 | 298 | 335 | 633 | 108 | 336 | 33 | 7 | 284 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 436 | 105 | 21 | 2 | 14 | 50 | 155 | 16 | 15 | 7 | 241 | 342 | 394 | 736 | 154 | 339 | 31 | 10 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 289 | 265 | 78 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 63 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 294 | 350 | 404 | 753 | 109 | 385 | 22 | 6 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | BAL | 100% | 400 | 358 | 90 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 31 | 99 | 8 | 17 | 3 | 254 | 326 | 386 | 712 | 133 | 322 | 25 | 8 | 319 | 102 | +1 | +2 | -0 | +1 | +9 | 0.8 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | BAL | 100% | 296 | 265 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 73 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 258 | 329 | 395 | 725 | 137 | 327 | 25 | 8 | 324 | 102 | +1 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +6 | 0.9 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | BAL | 92% | 291 | 262 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 73 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 250 | 322 | 379 | 701 | 129 | 320 | 25 | 8 | 314 | 99 | -0 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB MLE | BAL | 92% | 287 | 258 | 63 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 73 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 246 | 317 | 370 | 687 | 124 | 316 | 25 | 8 | 309 | 95 | -2 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB MLE | BAL | 92% | 269 | 242 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 69 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 242 | 312 | 359 | 672 | 118 | 313 | 26 | 7 | 303 | 91 | -3 | +1 | -3 | +1 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB MLE | BAL | 92% | 247 | 223 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 65 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 236 | 306 | 347 | 652 | 111 | 309 | 26 | 7 | 295 | 86 | -4 | +0 | -4 | +1 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | BAL | 92% | 268 | 241 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 67 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 254 | 326 | 387 | 713 | 133 | 324 | 25 | 7 | 319 | 99 | -0 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB CTX | BAL | 92% | 264 | 237 | 59 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 67 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 250 | 321 | 378 | 699 | 128 | 321 | 25 | 8 | 313 | 95 | -2 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB CTX | BAL | 92% | 247 | 223 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 64 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 245 | 316 | 367 | 683 | 122 | 317 | 26 | 7 | 307 | 91 | -3 | +1 | -3 | +1 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB CTX | BAL | 92% | 227 | 204 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 60 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 240 | 309 | 354 | 663 | 114 | 313 | 26 | 7 | 299 | 86 | -4 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1746 | 1562 | 395 | 69 | 7 | 35 | 131 | 456 | 35 | 43 | 16 | 253 | 324 | 373 | 698 | 120 | 334 | 26 | 8 | 316 | 89 | -4 | +2 | -13 | +11 | +38 | 3.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 582 | 148 | 26 | 3 | 13 | 49 | 170 | 13 | 16 | 6 | 254 | 326 | 376 | 702 | 122 | 337 | 26 | 8 | 316 | 89 | -2 | +1 | -5 | +4 | +14 | 1.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4363 | 3887 | 913 | 162 | 26 | 92 | 332 | 1311 | 98 | 126 | 40 | 235 | 311 | 361 | 672 | 126 | 326 | 30 | 8 | 299 | 89 | -4 | +4 | -14 | +12 | +46 | 4.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 579 | 136 | 24 | 4 | 14 | 49 | 195 | 15 | 19 | 6 | 235 | 311 | 363 | 674 | 128 | 325 | 30 | 8 | 299 | 89 | -1 | +1 | -4 | +4 | +14 | 1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAAReno Aces · 241 PAwOBA .389 → .341 (−48)K% 24.5% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.48% | ÷1.025 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.77% | ÷0.964 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 11.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.49% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.19% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 25.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.89% | ÷1.069 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 7.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.74% | ÷0.902 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 0.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.93% | ÷0.904 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.67% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .389 → .341; ISO .196 → .165; BABIP .364 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAReno Aces · 225 PAwOBA .347 → .273 (−74)K% 30.7% → 38.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.67% | ÷0.964 | ×1.200 | — | — | 38.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.44% | ÷1.012 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.67% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.77% | ÷1.076 | ×0.930 | ×0.993 | ×1.033 | 23.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.45% | ÷1.025 | ×0.830 | ×0.993 | ×1.033 | 7.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.36% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | ×0.993 | ×1.033 | 2.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.94% | ÷1.124 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 2.53% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 115, 2B 105, 3B 103, K 93, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .347 → .273; ISO .168 → .123; BABIP .392 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAReno Aces · 305 PAwOBA .382 → .318 (−64)K% 27.2% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.21% | ÷0.951 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.77% | ÷1.096 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 9.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.28% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 3.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.88% | ÷1.026 | ×0.930 | ×1.017 | ×1.048 | 28.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.93% | ÷1.059 | ×0.830 | ×1.017 | ×1.048 | 6.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.22% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.017 | ×1.048 | 1.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.88% | ÷1.012 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 3.54% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 90, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .382 → .318; ISO .166 → .128; BABIP .398 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL D-backs Black · 23 PAwOBA .390 → .254 (−136)K% 21.7% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.74% | ÷1.030 | ×1.440 | — | — | 30.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.001 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.35% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 2.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷1.073 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 8.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷0.966 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 8.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.950 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.76% | ÷1.038 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 8.44% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 115, 2B 93, 3B 90, K 106, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .390 → .254; ISO .364 → .235; BABIP .267 → .185. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 363 PAwOBA .394 → .329 (−65)K% 25.3% → 30.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.34% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 6.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.75% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 2.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.048 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 25.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.56% | ÷1.022 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 6.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.33% | ÷0.938 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 1.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.56% | ÷1.094 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 5.67% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 88, K 102, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .394 → .329; ISO .233 → .185; BABIP .383 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAReno Aces · 34 PAwOBA .403 → .337 (−66)K% 23.5% → 28.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.020 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 8.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 8.82% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 8.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 20.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.996 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 4.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.100 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.53% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 8.02% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 105, 2B 99, 3B 120, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .403 → .337; ISO .259 → .198; BABIP .294 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Hillsboro Hops · 389 PAwOBA .305 → .213 (−92)K% 32.4% → 45.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.39% | ÷0.970 | ×1.350 | — | — | 45.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.31% | ÷1.011 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 8.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.29% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.13% | ÷1.033 | ×0.910 | ×1.011 | ×1.012 | 19.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.51% | ÷1.304 | ×0.830 | ×1.011 | ×1.012 | 4.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.41% | ÷1.108 | ×0.820 | ×1.011 | ×1.012 | 1.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.69% | ÷0.972 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 4.06% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 107, 2B 161, 3B 122, K 94, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .305 → .213; ISO .153 → .101; BABIP .314 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AKane County Cougars · 406 PAwOBA .332 → .268 (−64)K% 21.9% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.92% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.34% | ÷1.083 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.96% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 2.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.38% | ÷1.038 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 22.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.72% | ÷0.920 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 4.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.57% | ÷1.056 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 1.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.76% | ÷0.875 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.59% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 108, 2B 84, 3B 111, K 98, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .332 → .268; ISO .120 → .105; BABIP .324 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).