Blaze Alexander — OGILVIE

Blaze AlexanderSS Baltimore Orioles

Age 27 R/R 5'11" / 200 lbs MLB HR +8% Svc 1.308 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION246 act + 164 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 144127vR 85

AVG/OBP/SLG.265 / .337 / .408

PA164

HR4

SB6

K%26

BB%8

BABIP343

ISO143

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

758.4%

xwOBA

540.313

POWER50

Barrel%

518.3

Avg EV

7290.6

Bat Spd

6472.9

EYE50

Chase%

9020.0%

SPEED60

Sprint

7128.3

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 495 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

169

326

—

wRC+

130

◀◀L

wOBA

356

273

◀◀L

ISO

166

097

◀◀L

BABIP

375

311

◀◀L

28.4%

31.0%

◀L

BB%

10.6%

6.1%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.308 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.3	$17M	+$16M
2028	Arb-1	$4M	+2.1	$14M	+$11M
2029	Arb-2	$6M	+1.8	$11M	+$7M
2030	Arb-3	$7M	+1.5	$9M	+$4M
Totals		$18M		$55M	+$43M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	19	ROK	Missoula Osprey	—	247	223	51	13	3	4	18	75	3	10	3	229	295	368	663	139	320	30	7	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK	Missoula Osprey	—	247	210	69	19	5	5	31	52	3	10	3	329	422	538	960	210	410	21	13	417	177	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	Kane County Cougars	—	406	360	74	11	3	7	25	123	12	14	4	206	280	311	591	106	280	30	6	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	Kane County Cougars	—	406	343	90	12	4	7	42	89	12	14	4	262	363	382	745	120	324	22	10	333	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	389	352	48	7	2	7	31	181	5	17	4	136	216	227	444	91	248	47	8	199	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	389	339	74	16	3	10	44	126	5	17	4	218	317	372	689	153	314	32	11	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA	2 teams	—	397	358	87	15	3	14	23	127	13	10	6	243	312	419	731	176	335	32	6	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA	2 teams	—	397	344	104	18	3	19	37	100	13	10	6	302	391	538	929	235	376	25	9	405	168	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	2 teams	—	328	286	59	10	1	7	25	125	11	2	2	206	295	322	617	115	327	38	8	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	2 teams	—	328	269	78	15	2	10	42	88	11	2	2	290	407	472	879	182	386	27	13	387	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA	2 teams	—	410	369	77	15	2	6	28	145	9	7	2	209	281	309	590	100	321	35	7	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA	2 teams	—	410	362	95	19	3	8	34	118	9	7	2	262	340	398	738	135	364	29	8	329	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB	2 teams	—	507	433	101	20	2	14	51	159	16	15	7	233	336	386	722	152	331	31	10	322	104	+2	+0	+2	+2	+14	2.1
2025	26	MLB	2 teams	—	507	424	108	24	2	15	60	145	16	15	7	255	368	427	795	172	348	29	12	354	129	+17	+0	+2	+2	+14	3.6
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	MLB	BAL	—	246	223	69	12	2	4	16	54	4	9	3	309	366	435	801	126	392	22	7	348	124	+7	+1	-2	+1	+7	1.4
YTD	27	MLB	BAL	—	246	221	69	12	2	4	16	54	4	9	3	312	366	439	805	127	396	22	7	355	129	+8	+1	-2	+1	+7	1.5
ROS	27	MLB	BAL	100%	164	147	39	7	1	4	13	42	3	6	2	265	337	408	746	143	344	26	8	333	113	+2	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.8
ROS	27	MLB	BAL	100%	164	147	39	7	1	4	13	42	3	6	2	265	337	408	746	143	349	26	8	322	105	+1	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.7
FULL	27	MLB	BAL	—	410	370	108	19	3	8	29	96	7	15	5	292	355	424	779	132	373	23	7	338	116	+8	+1	-1	+1	+12	2.1
TOT	27	MLB	BAL	—	410	370	108	19	3	8	29	96	7	15	5	292	355	424	779	132	373	23	7	342	120	+9	+1	-1	+1	+12	2.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	BAL	92%	461	410	108	19	3	11	38	120	10	17	4	263	341	405	745	141	342	26	8	331	111	+6	+2	-0	+2	+13	2.2
2028	29	MLB	BAL	92%	449	400	103	18	2	10	37	118	9	16	4	258	334	388	722	130	342	26	8	329	110	+5	+2	-1	+2	+13	2.0
2029	30	MLB	BAL	92%	438	390	101	18	2	10	36	116	9	14	3	259	336	392	728	133	341	26	8	326	108	+4	+2	-2	+2	+12	1.8
2030	31	MLB	BAL	92%	423	376	96	17	2	9	35	113	9	12	3	255	333	383	716	128	338	27	8	322	104	+2	+1	-3	+2	+12	1.5
2031	32	MLB	BAL	92%	404	360	90	15	2	8	33	110	8	9	2	250	327	369	696	119	335	27	8	316	100	+0	+1	-3	+1	+11	1.1
2032	33	MLB	BAL	92%	374	333	82	14	2	7	31	104	7	7	2	246	323	363	687	117	330	28	8	309	95	-2	+1	-4	+1	+11	0.6
2033	34	MLB	BAL	88%	329	293	69	11	1	6	27	93	6	4	1	235	313	341	654	106	323	28	8	300	88	-5	+0	-5	+1	+9	0.2
2034	35	MLB	BAL	83%	276	247	56	8	1	5	22	80	5	3	1	227	303	328	631	101	316	29	8	289	80	-6	+0	-5	+1	+8	-0.3
2035	36	MLB	BAL	74%	219	196	43	6	1	3	17	65	4	1	0	219	295	306	601	87	309	30	8	279	71	-7	+0	-6	+1	+6	-0.6
2027	28	MLB	BAL	92%	424	377	100	18	2	10	35	110	9	16	4	265	342	403	745	138	347	26	8	320	103	+1	+2	-0	+2	+12	1.7
2028	29	MLB	BAL	92%	413	367	97	17	2	10	34	108	9	14	4	264	341	403	745	139	347	26	8	318	102	+1	+1	-1	+1	+12	1.4
2029	30	MLB	BAL	92%	403	359	94	17	2	9	33	107	8	13	3	262	338	396	733	134	346	27	8	316	100	-0	+1	-2	+1	+11	1.3
2030	31	MLB	BAL	92%	389	346	90	16	2	9	32	104	8	11	3	260	337	396	733	136	343	27	8	311	97	-2	+1	-2	+1	+11	1.0
2031	32	MLB	BAL	92%	372	330	85	15	2	8	31	101	8	8	2	258	336	388	724	130	340	27	8	306	92	-3	+1	-3	+1	+11	0.6
2032	33	MLB	BAL	92%	344	306	77	13	2	7	28	95	7	6	2	252	328	376	704	124	335	28	8	299	87	-5	+0	-4	+1	+10	0.3
2033	34	MLB	BAL	88%	288	257	61	10	1	5	23	82	6	4	1	237	315	342	657	105	328	28	8	289	80	-7	+0	-4	+1	+8	-0.1
2034	35	MLB	BAL	83%	229	205	47	7	1	4	18	67	4	2	1	229	304	332	636	102	321	29	8	279	72	-7	+0	-5	+1	+6	-0.5
2035	36	MLB	BAL	74%	162	145	33	5	1	3	13	48	3	1	0	228	304	338	642	110	313	30	8	268	63	-7	+0	-5	+1	+5	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3639	3235	817	144	17	79	297	999	78	88	29	253	330	381	711	128	339	27	8	307	93	-30	+6	-27	+18	+103	7.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	146	26	3	14	53	178	14	16	5	253	330	381	711	128	339	27	8	307	93	-5	+1	-5	+3	+18	1.3
Career	—			—	6221	5533	1284	224	33	132	490	1896	139	164	50	232	310	356	666	124	325	30	8	299	87	-93	+13	-31	+25	+176	9.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	134	23	3	14	51	198	15	17	5	232	311	355	665	123	324	30	8	299	87	-10	+1	-3	+3	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	19	ROK	Missoula Osprey	—	247	210	69	19	5	5	31	52	3	10	3	329	422	538	960	210	410	21	13	417	177	+21	+1	—	—	+7	3.0
2019	20	A	Kane County Cougars	—	406	343	90	12	4	7	42	89	12	14	4	262	363	382	745	120	324	22	10	333	113	+6	+1	—	—	+12	1.9
2021	22	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	389	339	74	16	3	10	44	126	5	17	4	218	317	372	689	153	314	32	11	312	97	-1	+2	—	—	+11	1.2
2022	23	AAA	Reno Aces	—	34	27	7	1	0	2	4	8	3	0	0	259	412	519	930	259	294	24	12	414	175	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2022	23	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	363	317	97	17	3	17	33	92	10	10	6	306	389	539	928	233	383	25	9	404	167	+28	-0	—	—	+10	3.8
2023	24	AAA	Reno Aces	—	305	247	72	13	2	8	42	83	10	2	2	291	415	457	872	166	398	27	14	385	153	+18	-0	—	—	+9	2.7
2023	24	ROK	ACL D-backs Black	—	23	22	6	2	0	2	0	5	1	0	0	273	304	636	941	364	267	22	0	403	167	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	185	166	41	7	0	3	15	49	3	3	1	247	321	343	664	96	333	26	8	302	90	-2	+0	-3	+4	+5	0.5
2024	25	AAA	Reno Aces	—	225	196	54	12	3	5	19	69	6	4	1	276	356	444	800	168	392	31	8	352	127	+7	+0	—	—	+6	1.4
2025	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	266	230	53	12	1	7	22	86	10	4	6	230	324	383	707	152	333	32	8	316	100	+0	-2	+2	+2	+8	1.0
2025	26	AAA	Reno Aces	—	241	194	55	12	1	8	38	59	6	11	1	284	416	479	895	196	364	24	16	396	161	+17	+2	—	—	+7	2.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	451	396	94	19	1	10	37	135	13	7	7	237	323	366	689	129	333	30	8	311	96	-2	-1	-1	+6	+13	1.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Felipe Lopezlast yr '11 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,864 PA	11	4,864	90	124	264	333	391	+31	-19	17.6	18.1
	/162	664	12	17	264	333	391	+4.2	-2.6	2.4	pk7: 19
#2Kolten Wonglast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,283 PA	11	4,283	86	120	256	330	390	+15	+21	18.4	17.8
	/162	664	13	19	256	330	390	+2.4	+3.2	2.8	pk7: 17
#3Josh Harrisonlast yr '23 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,347 PA	13	4,347	73	91	270	316	396	+14	+16	15.2	15.4
	/162	664	11	14	270	316	396	+2.2	+2.4	2.3	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	4,107	87	107	252	326	378	+31	-6	15.9	14.5
	/162	664	14	17	252	326	378	+5.1	-1.0	2.6	pk7: 13
#4Jerry Hairston Jr.last yr '13 career totals — 14 seasons, 4,767 PA	14	4,767	66	138	257	325	366	+5	+30	14.9	14.0
	/162	664	9	19	257	325	366	+0.8	+4.2	2.1	pk7: 13
#5Cameron Maybinlast yr '20 ASSS career totals — 13 seasons, 4,182 PA	13	4,182	72	182	254	322	375	+9	+6	13.1	12.8
	/162	664	11	29	254	322	375	+1.4	+1.0	2.1	pk7: 13
#6Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	9	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
	/162	664	13	8	246	327	370	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Blaze Alexander (OGILVIE)	27	40	50	60	50	292/355/424	132	373	8	15	23%	7%	120	+2.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tyler Greene 2012 · MLB	28	50→53	48→50	59→55	44	244/317/394	150	330	15	26	29%	8%	102	+1.8	228/282/364	136	320	14	18	31%	6%	79	+0.3	219/264/338	119	315	12	13	33%	5%	61	-0.6
✕Desmond Jennings 2014 · MLB	27	49→59	49→50	57→60	53	246/323/405	159	288	16	24	20%	10%	107	+2.2	235/308/375	140	281	14	16	20%	9%	93	+1.3	225/299/356	131	269	13	15	21%	9%	82	+0.3
●Logan Forsythe 2014 · MLB	27	49→56	46→55	53→50	50	241/317/376	135	295	14	14	22%	9%	97	+1.5	249/321/400	151	295	16	8	21%	8%	105	+2.1	256/347/413	157	312	17	7	22%	11%	116	+2.6
✕Sam Haggerty 2021 · MLB	27	50→44	43→50	61→65	49	235/315/358	123	327	8	27	29%	10%	92	+1.2	241/312/381	140	316	12	31	26%	8%	96	+1.5	257/335/401	144	323	11	42	22%	9%	107	+1.2
✕Drew Stubbs 2012 · MLB	27	50→51	47→50	59→60	47	242/315/376	134	325	15	33	29%	9%	96	+1.5	229/296/359	130	316	15	27	30%	8%	84	+0.6	227/297/360	133	323	13	24	32%	9%	81	+0.3
●Austin Barnes 2017 · MLB	27	51→55	45→50	55→50	50	247/310/378	131	284	12	17	18%	8%	94	+1.3	242/334/385	143	295	14	12	21%	11%	107	+2.2	233/342/385	152	286	16	8	23%	12%	104	+0.9
✕Max Schuemann 2023 · AAA	26	46→47	46→45	59→60	46	223/313/356	133	303	14	29	29%	9%	92	+1.2	222/312/331	109	296	11	21	26%	10%	85	+0.7	215/311/310	95	283	9	20	25%	10%	77	+0.1
●Chris Young 2011 · MLB	27	47→49	54→60	52→55	54	242/325/430	188	289	21	18	24%	11%	115	+2.7	231/318/414	183	273	20	18	22%	11%	108	+2.3	221/310/403	183	259	19	17	22%	11%	97	+1.2
✕John Hester 2011 · MLB	27	50	48→55	48→50	42	249/296/406	157	318	14	11	26%	6%	95	+1.4	208/266/322	114	288	12	5	30%	7%	62	-0.9	184/244/291	107	269	11	4	34%	7%	42	-1.0
✕Dylan Moore 2021 · MLB	28	46→47	53→50	52→65	45	235/316/418	183	297	20	26	27%	8%	108	+2.3	217/319/392	175	287	20	31	30%	10%	103	+1.9	210/332/386	176	289	16	41	30%	12%	104	+1.0
✕Hernán Pérez 2019 · MLB	28	51→55	50→55	55	43	260/295/410	150	298	18	21	20%	5%	96	+1.5	243/287/397	154	298	19	16	24%	6%	90	+1.0	239/283/364	126	302	16	24	26%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Mark Mathias 2022 · MLB	27	48→47	46→50	52→50	43	236/287/370	134	291	13	14	23%	6%	82	+0.5	254/332/399	145	343	17	18	28%	9%	109	+2.4	258/344/393	135	350	16	20	28%	10%	111	+1.3
●Ha-Seong Kim 2023 · MLB	27	49→53	47→50	52→60	51	244/315/389	145	283	14	12	19%	8%	100	+1.7	250/335/390	140	290	15	25	18%	11%	108	+2.3	245/337/377	132	283	15	31	18%	12%	102	+1.5
●César Puello 2018 · MLB	27	54→59	46→50	55	43	260/324/388	128	341	13	24	26%	6%	103	+1.9	265/345/388	123	347	13	12	26%	7%	112	+2.6	256/351/360	104	342	10	10	25%	7%	105	+1.0
●Harrison Bader 2021 · MLB	27	46→56	53→55	54→55	49	233/326/413	180	306	20	16	29%	10%	111	+2.5	246/305/401	155	293	17	20	22%	7%	98	+1.6	242/304/399	157	300	20	16	25%	6%	96	+0.9
✕Angel Berroa 2004 · MLB	27	54→56	48→55	56→50	46	270/325/423	153	301	15	18	16%	5%	112	+2.6	259/302/382	123	296	11	12	16%	4%	92	+1.2	254/297/421	167	303	20	5	23%	4%	99	+1.0
✕Chip Ambres 2006 · MLB	26	49	48→50	53→50	51	242/318/393	151	292	15	20	22%	9%	102	+1.8	217/289/357	140	271	16	11	25%	9%	81	+0.4	214/283/358	144	260	17	6	24%	8%	76	+0.0
✕Keon Broxton 2016 · AAA	26	47→48	49→55	58→60	40	227/283/383	156	332	16	25	35%	7%	84	+0.6	218/290/386	168	342	19	35	39%	9%	89	+0.9	199/280/366	166	324	20	40	42%	9%	77	+0.1
●Justin Greene 2013 · AAA	27	47→57	48→50	55→60	38	229/282/375	145	334	15	22	34%	6%	82	+0.5	242/293/347	105	325	7	23	26%	6%	79	+0.3	295/348/421	126	370	12	40	22%	7%	116	+2.2
✕Jordan Danks 2014 · MLB	27	49	48→50	51→50	47	241/311/380	139	325	15	14	29%	9%	95	+1.4	229/288/344	115	324	13	9	31%	7%	76	+0.1	223/279/323	100	318	12	7	32%	7%	65	-0.6