TJ Friedl — OGILVIE

TJ FriedlCF Cincinnati Reds

Age 30 L/L 5'8" / 180 lbs MLB HR +9%K -4% Svc 3.651 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 0.7 · 2027

wRC+†vL 6877vR 88

AVG/OBP/SLG.236 / .334 / .360

PA605

HR14

SB18

K%17

BB%10

xwOBA.248

Barrel%1.5%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

45→45

PWR

35→35

SPD

45→45

EYE

57↗60

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.0peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2021

Service 3.651 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$4M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$6M	+$0.0M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	20	ROK	Billings Mustangs	137	126	30	7	1	2	8	36	3	7	2	.238	.299	.357	.656	.119	.318	26	6	.290	80	-3	+1	+0	+0	+4	0.2
2017	21	A	2 teams	491	441	102	22	6	5	27	115	15	16	9	.231	.298	.342	.641	.111	.299	23	5	.275	69	-17	-0	+0	+2	+14	-0.2
2018	22	AA	2 teams	570	508	119	17	5	4	47	131	12	30	9	.234	.314	.311	.625	.077	.307	23	8	.283	75	-16	+2	+0	+2	+16	0.4
2019	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	269	235	46	8	4	5	20	67	11	13	4	.196	.289	.328	.617	.132	.248	25	7	.270	65	-11	+1	+0	+1	+8	-0.1
2021	25	AAA	2 teams	484	435	102	14	6	10	30	84	13	13	7	.234	.303	.363	.667	.129	.267	17	6	.292	82	-10	-0	-0	+2	+14	0.5
2022	26	MLB	2 teams	499	439	106	16	10	14	39	100	10	17	4	.241	.318	.419	.737	.178	.277	20	8	.309	94	-3	+2	-2	+2	+14	1.3
2023	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	556	488	132	22	7	16	47	90	10	27	6	.270	.347	.443	.789	.172	.301	16	8	.336	115	+10	+3	+5	+2	+16	3.6
2024	28	MLB	2 teams	373	325	70	9	1	11	29	57	13	9	1	.215	.305	.351	.656	.135	.226	15	8	.291	81	-8	+1	-5	+1	+11	0.0
2025	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	685	579	147	21	2	13	81	115	16	12	3	.254	.361	.364	.725	.111	.294	17	12	.324	106	+5	+1	-2	+2	+19	2.7
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	30	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	101	87	14	2	0	0	10	21	2	4	0	.161	.263	.184	.447	.023	.212	21	10	.214	22	-9	+1	+0	+0	+3	-0.5
ROS	30	MLB	CIN	504	436	97	13	2	10	52	88	11	14	3	.222	.321	.330	.651	.108	.255	17	10	.300	88	-7	+2	-2	+2	+14	0.9
TOT	30	MLB	CIN	605	523	111	15	2	10	62	109	13	18	3	.212	.311	.306	.617	.094	.248	18	10	.286	77	-16	+2	-1	+2	+17	0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	31	MLB	CIN	590	511	112	15	2	11	61	80	13	13	2	.219	.318	.321	.639	.102	.239	14	10	.296	85	-10	+2	-5	+2	+17	0.6
2028	32	MLB	CIN	571	494	107	14	2	10	59	81	13	10	1	.217	.316	.314	.630	.097	.238	14	10	.292	81	-12	+2	-5	+2	+16	0.3
2029	33	MLB	CIN	541	469	100	13	2	9	55	80	12	8	0	.213	.312	.307	.619	.094	.236	15	10	.286	77	-14	+2	-6	+2	+15	-0.1
2030	34	MLB	CIN	493	429	89	11	2	8	50	77	11	6	0	.207	.306	.298	.604	.091	.234	16	10	.280	73	-15	+1	-6	+2	+14	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6763	5915	1359	202	52	128	605	1201	163	195	51	.230	.318	.346	.665	.117	.266	18	9	.297	85	-113	+19	-27	+24	+192	9.6
/ 162G	—			650	568	130	19	5	12	58	115	16	19	5	.229	.317	.343	.661	.114	.265	18	9	.297	85	-11	+2	-3	+2	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	20	ROK	Billings Mustangs	137	121	42	11	2	3	13	25	3	7	2	.347	.423	.545	.969	.198	.419	18	9	.426	184	+13	+1	—	—	+4	1.8
2017	21	A+	Daytona Tortugas	199	179	46	6	2	2	10	39	5	2	1	.257	.314	.346	.661	.089	.317	20	5	.293	82	-4	+0	—	—	+6	0.2
2017	21	A	Dayton Dragons	292	250	71	20	6	5	29	46	10	14	8	.284	.381	.472	.853	.188	.328	16	10	.375	145	+15	-0	—	—	+8	2.3
2018	22	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	296	261	72	10	3	2	28	56	6	19	5	.276	.359	.360	.719	.084	.345	19	9	.329	110	+3	+2	—	—	+8	1.4
2018	22	A+	Daytona Tortugas	274	228	67	10	4	3	38	44	6	11	4	.294	.408	.412	.820	.118	.350	16	14	.371	142	+13	+1	—	—	+8	2.2
2019	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	269	226	53	11	4	5	29	50	11	13	4	.235	.350	.385	.735	.150	.277	19	11	.331	112	+4	+1	—	—	+8	1.2
2021	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	36	31	9	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0	.290	.371	.419	.791	.129	.276	6	11	.347	124	+1	+0	-0	+2	+1	0.4
2021	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	448	386	102	15	5	12	44	65	13	13	7	.264	.359	.422	.781	.158	.288	15	10	.348	124	+12	-0	—	—	+13	2.5
2022	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	258	225	54	10	5	8	20	40	7	7	2	.240	.321	.436	.757	.196	.251	16	8	.328	109	+3	+1	-2	+2	+7	1.1
2022	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	241	205	57	9	3	8	28	48	3	10	2	.278	.373	.468	.841	.190	.327	20	12	.366	138	+10	+1	—	—	+7	1.9
2023	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	556	488	136	22	8	18	47	90	10	27	6	.279	.354	.467	.821	.189	.308	16	8	.357	131	+20	+3	+5	+2	+16	4.6
2024	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	341	297	67	5	1	13	26	52	12	9	1	.226	.313	.380	.694	.155	.229	15	8	.309	95	-2	+1	-5	+1	+10	0.5
2024	28	AAA	Louisville Bats	32	27	5	4	0	0	4	4	1	0	0	.185	.312	.333	.646	.148	.217	12	12	.299	87	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2025	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	685	579	151	22	2	14	81	115	16	12	3	.261	.367	.378	.745	.117	.301	17	12	.337	116	+13	+1	-2	+2	+19	3.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1876	1620	417	60	16	54	178	299	45	55	12	.257	.347	.414	.761	.157	.282	16	9	.337	116	+34	+6	-4	+9	+53	10.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
TJ Friedl (OGILVIE)	30	45	35	45	60	.221/.320/.328	.107	.241	12	16	13%	10%	88	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Augie Ojeda 2005 · MLB	30	50	45→40	47→45	58	.241/.317/.360	.118	.251	13	9	10%	9%	93	+1.3	.227/.303/.310	.083	.250	7	6	12%	8%	75	-0.0	.249/.339/.324	.075	.277	1	4	10%	10%	86	+0.3
✕Mark Johnson 2006 · MLB	30	47	42→40	45→40	55	.224/.303/.328	.104	.257	9	6	16%	9%	79	+0.3	.231/.305/.318	.087	.272	7	5	17%	9%	77	+0.1	.240/.319/.300	.061	.279	5	1	15%	10%	76	+0.0
✕Alex Cora 2006 · MLB	30	51→53	42→45	47→50	51	.244/.309/.350	.106	.260	9	8	11%	6%	87	+0.8	.240/.309/.343	.103	.261	7	9	11%	6%	85	+0.7	.246/.318/.334	.088	.268	3	8	9%	7%	82	+0.2
✕Ender Inciarte 2021 · MLB	30	49→59	44→45	52→60	54	.240/.311/.360	.120	.271	10	19	16%	9%	90	+1.0	.226/.290/.338	.112	.276	11	12	21%	8%	76	+0.0	.220/.277/.313	.093	.271	10	12	22%	7%	60	-0.3
✕Jose Munoz 2009 · AAA	30	51→49	42→45	44→50	54	.246/.319/.356	.110	.288	9	11	18%	9%	92	+1.2	.244/.318/.363	.119	.290	9	10	18%	10%	94	+1.3	.227/.310/.331	.103	.281	8	6	20%	10%	79	+0.1
✕Andy Fox 2001 · MLB	30	48→53	44→40	51→60	50	.236/.305/.352	.116	.280	11	17	20%	8%	85	+0.7	.234/.320/.341	.107	.282	10	21	19%	10%	89	+1.0	.236/.322/.314	.078	.297	4	31	20%	9%	76	+0.0
✕Calvin Murray 2002 · MLB	31	50→55	43→40	46→50	56	.243/.323/.359	.116	.276	10	15	16%	10%	95	+1.4	.225/.297/.343	.118	.262	10	15	17%	9%	80	+0.4	.258/.324/.345	.087	.307	4	16	16%	7%	89	+0.9
✕Luis Ordaz 2005 · MLB	29	48	44→40	45→50	55	.234/.309/.348	.114	.263	11	11	16%	10%	86	+0.8	.253/.289/.361	.108	.283	9	8	14%	5%	80	+0.4	.268/.294/.352	.084	.310	5	8	15%	3%	79	+0.1
✕Warren Morris 2005 · MLB	31	52→55	44→40	47→50	51	.255/.307/.372	.117	.275	12	8	12%	7%	91	+1.1	.233/.283/.354	.121	.263	14	14	17%	6%	76	+0.1	.218/.261/.319	.101	.245	12	18	17%	6%	56	-0.6
✕Chris Gomez 2001 · MLB	30	48→54	43→45	49→40	57	.234/.310/.345	.111	.255	11	9	14%	10%	85	+0.7	.250/.296/.384	.134	.267	13	6	12%	6%	90	+1.0	.285/.347/.354	.069	.311	5	5	9%	8%	99	+0.7
✕Desi Relaford 2005 · MLB	31	50→52	42→45	50→55	53	.241/.310/.349	.108	.265	10	14	13%	8%	87	+0.8	.220/.297/.318	.098	.256	8	11	17%	8%	74	-0.1	.211/.292/.299	.088	.254	6	11	18%	9%	62	-0.5
✕Cliff Pennington 2014 · MLB	30	50→55	40→45	47→55	50	.238/.300/.335	.096	.285	7	13	19%	8%	79	+0.3	.231/.306/.321	.090	.285	7	11	20%	9%	78	+0.2	.223/.301/.303	.080	.282	7	9	22%	9%	67	-0.2
✕Adam Everett 2007 · MLB	30	50→53	43→45	50	47	.243/.290/.358	.115	.271	10	15	15%	5%	80	+0.4	.231/.284/.336	.105	.261	8	10	14%	6%	72	-0.2	.223/.277/.308	.085	.254	5	7	14%	6%	60	-0.5
✕Shane Robinson 2015 · MLB	30	50→59	40→45	49→55	53	.238/.306/.326	.089	.274	7	11	16%	9%	79	+0.3	.239/.294/.319	.080	.278	4	15	15%	7%	72	-0.2	.252/.300/.321	.069	.291	2	20	13%	6%	72	-0.1
✕Tyler Heineman 2021 · MLB	30	48→45	46→45	52→50	48	.239/.301/.368	.129	.271	13	9	18%	7%	89	+0.9	.226/.289/.312	.086	.275	6	8	19%	7%	69	-0.4	.226/.321/.329	.103	.279	10	14	21%	10%	84	+0.2
✕Jeremy Reed 2011 · MLB	30	52→58	42→45	42→50	48	.252/.301/.360	.108	.289	9	7	16%	6%	85	+0.7	.224/.277/.333	.109	.263	10	11	18%	6%	69	-0.4	.179/.233/.257	.077	.210	3	15	16%	6%	27	-0.7
✕Pablo Ozuna 2005 · MLB	30	48	44→40	54→55	49	.236/.300/.359	.123	.261	11	15	15%	6%	85	+0.7	.264/.309/.356	.092	.294	6	23	12%	5%	88	+0.9	.288/.324/.385	.098	.319	4	16	10%	3%	98	+0.5
✕Bobby Crosby 2010 · MLB	30	47→50	44→50	48→50	51	.232/.293/.354	.122	.262	11	9	16%	8%	81	+0.4	.229/.299/.345	.116	.273	10	6	19%	9%	81	+0.4	.215/.290/.289	.074	.272	3	0	20%	9%	54	-0.5
✕Garrett Stubbs 2022 · MLB	29	44	43→45	53→50	52	.214/.296/.324	.109	.266	10	16	23%	10%	76	+0.0	.227/.306/.345	.118	.294	12	12	25%	10%	85	+0.7	.219/.302/.318	.099	.288	9	12	25%	9%	72	-0.0
✕Chris Burke 2009 · MLB	29	48→56	44→45	53→55	53	.232/.312/.353	.121	.263	11	16	16%	8%	89	+1.0	.221/.287/.324	.103	.262	9	20	18%	7%	71	-0.3	.216/.276/.308	.092	.259	7	24	19%	6%	60	-0.6

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)