TJ Friedl

CF Cincinnati Reds

Age 31 L/L 5'8" / 180 lbs MLB HR +16%BB +6% Svc 4.541 · Ctrl thru 2028

Overview

MLBArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	28	AAACIN	32	.185/.312/.333	0	0	48	—	.143/.250/.250
2024	28	MLBCIN	341	.226/.313/.380	13	9	90	0.1
2025	29	MLBCIN	685	.261/.367/.378	14	12	111	2.6
2026	30	AAACIN	81	.271/.370/.471	3	2	78	—	.219/.296/.356
2026	30	MLBCIN	272	.172/.256/.255	4	5	42	-1.1
2027PROJ	31	MLBCIN	369	.219/.311/.334	8	7	83	0.1
2028PROJ	32	MLBCIN	346	.213/.305/.321	7	3	78	-0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.6 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.541First FA2029

2027Arb-2$0.7M2028Arb-3$0.7M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Bat Spd45

Speed33

xwOBA32

Avg EV21

Barrel%10

CompsMark Johnson (age 30) · Andy Fox (age 31) · Jose Munoz (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7083vR 87

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .311 / .334

PA369

HR8

SB7

K%20

BB%9

BABIP257

ISO115

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

100.218

POWER35

Barrel%

102.9

Avg EV

2186.9

Bat Spd

4570.8

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

3326.7

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1109 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

279

830

—

wRC+

105

▶R

wOBA

305

324

▶R

ISO

100

130

▶▶R

BABIP

272

273

—

18.6%

16.1%

▶R

BB%

9.3%

10.8%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.541 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.1M
2028	Arb-3	$0.7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.7M		$-1M	+$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	20	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	137	121	42	11	2	3	13	25	3	7	2	347	423	545	969	198	419	18	9	426	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+	Daytona Tortugas	—	199	179	46	6	2	2	10	39	5	2	1	257	314	346	661	89	317	20	5	293	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A	Dayton Dragons	—	292	250	71	20	6	5	29	46	10	14	8	284	381	472	853	188	328	16	10	375	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	296	261	72	10	3	2	28	56	6	19	5	276	359	360	719	84	345	19	9	329	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+	Daytona Tortugas	—	274	228	67	10	4	3	38	44	6	11	4	294	408	412	820	118	350	16	14	371	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	269	226	53	11	4	5	29	50	11	13	4	235	350	385	735	150	277	19	11	331	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	36	31	9	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0	290	371	419	791	129	276	6	11	347	116	+1	+0	-0	+2	+1	0.3
2021	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	448	386	102	15	5	12	44	65	13	13	7	264	359	422	781	158	288	15	10	348	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	258	225	54	10	5	8	20	40	7	7	2	240	321	436	757	196	251	16	8	328	104	+1	+1	-2	+2	+6	0.8
2022	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	241	205	57	9	3	8	28	48	3	10	2	278	373	468	841	190	327	20	12	366	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	556	488	136	22	8	18	47	90	10	27	6	279	354	467	821	189	308	16	8	357	122	+15	+3	+5	+2	+12	3.7
2024	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	341	297	67	5	1	13	26	52	12	9	1	226	313	380	694	155	229	15	8	309	90	-4	+1	-5	+1	+7	0.1
2024	28	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	32	27	5	4	0	0	4	4	1	0	0	185	312	333	646	148	217	12	12	299	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	685	579	151	22	2	14	81	115	16	12	3	261	367	378	745	117	301	17	12	337	111	+9	+1	-2	+2	+15	2.6
2026	30	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	272	239	41	6	1	4	22	63	5	5	1	172	256	255	511	84	214	23	8	235	42	-19	+1	+0	+1	+6	-1.1
2026	30	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	81	70	19	5	0	3	8	17	3	2	0	271	370	471	842	200	320	21	10	375	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2148	1859	458	66	17	58	200	362	50	60	13	246	336	394	729	147	274	17	9	324	105	+14	+7	-3	+11	+47	7.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	20	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	137	126	29	7	1	2	8	36	3	7	2	230	292	349	641	119	314	26	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	199	181	43	6	2	2	8	56	5	2	1	238	289	326	615	88	306	28	4	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	292	260	60	16	5	3	19	64	10	14	8	231	308	365	673	135	284	22	7	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	296	270	65	9	3	2	19	66	6	19	5	241	305	319	624	78	308	22	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	274	238	57	8	3	2	28	60	6	11	4	239	335	324	658	84	308	22	10	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	269	234	46	8	4	4	21	63	11	13	4	197	293	316	609	120	242	23	8	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	36	31	9	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0	290	371	419	791	129	276	6	11	340	116	+1	+0	-0	+2	+1	0.3
2021	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	448	403	92	13	5	8	27	82	13	13	7	228	298	345	643	117	264	18	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	258	225	53	10	5	7	20	40	7	7	2	236	317	418	735	182	251	16	8	322	104	+1	+1	-2	+2	+6	0.8
2022	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	241	214	49	8	3	4	19	60	3	10	2	229	301	350	651	121	287	25	8	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	556	489	135	22	8	17	46	90	10	27	6	276	350	458	809	182	308	16	8	349	122	+15	+3	+5	+2	+12	3.7
2024	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	341	297	66	5	1	12	26	52	12	9	1	222	310	367	677	145	229	15	8	302	90	-4	+1	-5	+1	+7	0.1
2024	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	32	28	4	3	0	0	3	5	1	0	0	143	250	250	500	107	187	16	9	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	685	579	149	22	2	13	81	115	16	12	3	257	364	370	734	112	301	17	12	332	111	+9	+1	-2	+2	+15	2.6
2026	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	272	239	41	6	1	4	22	63	5	5	1	172	256	255	511	84	214	23	8	231	42	-19	+1	+0	+1	+6	-1.1
2026	30	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	81	73	16	4	0	2	5	20	3	2	0	219	296	356	652	137	268	25	6	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	137	126	29	7	1	2	8	36	3	7	2	230	292	349	641	119	307	26	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	Billings Mustangs	—	137	121	42	11	2	3	13	25	3	7	2	347	423	545	969	198	419	18	9	426	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	491	441	102	22	6	5	27	119	15	16	9	231	298	342	641	111	303	24	5	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	491	429	117	26	8	7	39	85	15	16	9	273	354	420	774	147	324	17	8	342	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	570	508	122	17	6	4	47	127	12	30	9	240	319	321	640	81	311	22	8	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	570	489	139	20	7	5	66	100	12	30	9	284	383	384	767	100	347	18	12	349	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	269	234	46	8	4	4	21	63	11	13	4	197	293	316	609	120	249	23	8	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	269	226	53	11	4	5	29	50	11	13	4	235	350	385	735	150	277	19	11	331	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	484	434	101	14	5	9	31	84	13	13	7	233	303	350	654	118	267	17	6	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	484	417	111	16	5	13	48	67	13	13	7	266	360	422	782	156	287	14	10	348	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	499	439	103	18	8	12	39	100	10	17	4	235	311	394	706	159	272	20	8	304	92	-5	+2	-2	+2	+11	0.8
2022	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	499	430	111	19	8	16	48	88	10	17	4	258	346	451	797	193	285	18	10	347	92	-5	+2	-2	+2	+11	0.8
2023	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	556	489	135	22	8	17	46	90	10	27	6	276	350	458	809	182	306	16	8	349	122	+15	+3	+5	+2	+12	3.7
2023	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	556	488	136	22	8	18	47	90	10	27	6	279	354	467	821	189	308	16	8	357	122	+15	+3	+5	+2	+12	3.7
2024	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	373	325	71	9	1	12	29	57	13	9	1	218	308	363	671	145	227	15	8	296	87	-6	+1	-5	+1	+8	-0.0
2024	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	373	324	72	9	1	13	30	56	13	9	1	222	313	377	690	154	228	15	8	308	87	-6	+1	-5	+1	+8	-0.0
2025	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	685	579	149	22	2	13	81	115	16	12	3	257	364	370	734	112	298	17	12	332	111	+9	+1	-2	+2	+15	2.6
2025	29	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	685	579	151	22	2	14	81	115	16	12	3	261	367	378	745	117	301	17	12	337	111	+9	+1	-2	+2	+15	2.6
2026	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	353	312	56	10	1	6	27	83	8	7	1	179	262	276	538	96	223	24	8	243	51	-21	+1	+0	+1	+8	-1.1
2026	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	353	309	60	11	1	7	30	80	8	7	1	194	282	304	587	110	238	23	8	267	51	-21	+1	+0	+1	+8	-1.1
2016	20	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	137	125	29	7	1	2	8	36	3	7	2	232	292	352	644	120	314	26	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	491	446	102	22	6	5	27	119	15	16	9	229	298	339	637	110	293	24	5	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	570	506	122	17	6	4	47	127	12	30	9	241	319	322	641	81	308	22	8	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	269	235	46	8	4	4	21	63	11	13	4	196	293	315	608	119	242	23	8	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	484	437	101	14	5	9	31	84	13	13	7	231	303	348	651	117	265	17	6	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	499	447	103	18	8	12	39	100	10	17	4	230	311	387	699	157	269	20	8	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	556	495	135	22	8	17	46	90	10	27	6	273	350	453	803	180	308	16	8	349	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	373	328	71	9	1	12	29	57	13	9	1	216	308	360	668	143	225	15	8	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	685	583	149	22	2	13	81	115	16	12	3	256	364	367	731	111	301	17	12	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	353	315	56	10	1	6	27	83	8	7	1	178	262	273	535	95	226	24	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	373	328	71	9	1	12	29	57	13	9	1	216	308	360	668	143	225	15	8	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	685	583	149	22	2	13	81	115	16	12	3	256	364	367	731	111	301	17	12	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	353	315	56	10	1	6	27	83	8	7	1	178	262	273	535	95	226	24	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	458	401	87	14	2	9	44	92	10	8	3	217	309	327	637	111	256	20	10	291	83	-9	+0	-2	+2	+10	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	369	323	70	11	1	8	35	74	8	7	2	219	311	334	645	116	257	20	9	295	83	-7	+1	-2	+1	+8	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	346	303	64	10	1	6	33	71	7	3	1	211	303	314	617	103	252	21	10	284	78	-9	+0	-5	+1	+7	-0.5
2028	32	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	346	303	65	10	1	7	33	71	7	3	1	213	305	321	625	108	253	21	10	287	78	-9	+0	-5	+1	+7	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2494	2162	523	76	18	65	233	433	57	63	14	242	332	384	715	142	272	17	9	319	88	+5	+7	-9	+12	+54	7.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	563	137	20	5	17	61	113	15	16	4	243	333	387	721	144	273	17	9	319	88	+1	+2	-2	+3	+14	1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	5132	4513	1047	170	44	97	424	1019	126	161	49	232	315	354	669	122	277	20	8	298	88	-2	+8	-10	+13	+62	7.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	133	22	6	12	54	129	16	20	6	233	316	355	671	122	278	20	8	298	88	-1	+2	-2	+3	+14	1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 81 PAwOBA .365 → .284 (−82)K% 21.0% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.99%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	25.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.88%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.962	6.56%
HBP% /PA	3.70%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	3.35%
Singles /BIP	20.75%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.986	×0.962	18.31%
Doubles /BIP	9.43%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.986	×0.962	7.43%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.986	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.66%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.962	3.81%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .365 → .284; ISO .200 → .142; BABIP .320 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALouisville Bats · 32 PAwOBA .292 → .239 (−53)K% 12.5% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.50%	÷0.999	×1.200	—	—	15.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷1.032	×0.690	—	×0.982	8.20%
HBP% /PA	3.12%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	2.88%
Singles /BIP	4.35%	÷0.995	×0.930	—	×0.982	3.99%
Doubles /BIP	17.39%	÷0.964	×0.830	—	×0.982	14.71%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.111	×0.700	—	×0.982	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .292 → .239; ISO .148 → .129; BABIP .217 → .187. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALouisville Bats · 241 PAwOBA .358 → .285 (−74)K% 19.9% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.92%	÷0.958	×1.200	—	—	24.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.62%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×1.003	7.86%
HBP% /PA	1.24%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.17%
Singles /BIP	23.57%	÷0.996	×0.930	×0.964	×1.003	21.27%
Doubles /BIP	5.73%	÷0.955	×0.830	×0.964	×1.003	4.82%
Triples /BIP	1.91%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.964	×1.003	1.99%
Home runs /BIP	5.10%	÷1.282	×0.700	—	×1.003	2.79%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .358 → .285; ISO .190 → .133; BABIP .327 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALouisville Bats · 448 PAwOBA .340 → .286 (−54)K% 14.5% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.51%	÷0.949	×1.200	—	—	18.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.38%	÷1.099	×0.690	—	×1.018	5.99%
HBP% /PA	2.90%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	2.78%
Singles /BIP	21.81%	÷0.994	×0.930	×0.979	×1.018	20.35%
Doubles /BIP	4.67%	÷0.945	×0.830	×0.979	×1.018	4.09%
Triples /BIP	1.56%	÷0.900	×0.920	×0.979	×1.018	1.59%
Home runs /BIP	3.74%	÷1.088	×0.700	—	×1.018	2.45%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 99, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 90, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .340 → .286; ISO .158 → .124; BABIP .288 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 269 PAwOBA .326 → .270 (−56)K% 18.6% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.59%	÷0.967	×1.220	—	—	23.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.78%	÷0.949	×0.680	—	×1.012	7.82%
HBP% /PA	4.09%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	3.48%
Singles /BIP	18.75%	÷0.974	×0.920	×0.950	×1.012	17.02%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷1.160	×0.910	×0.950	×1.012	4.71%
Triples /BIP	2.27%	÷0.900	×0.880	×0.950	×1.012	2.14%
Home runs /BIP	2.84%	÷0.979	×0.800	—	×1.012	2.35%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 95, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 93, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .326 → .270; ISO .150 → .125; BABIP .277 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 296 PAwOBA .318 → .274 (−44)K% 18.9% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.92%	÷1.030	×1.220	—	—	22.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.78%	÷0.967	×0.680	—	×1.027	6.34%
HBP% /PA	2.03%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	1.75%
Singles /BIP	27.80%	÷1.023	×0.920	×0.972	×1.027	24.96%
Doubles /BIP	4.88%	÷1.039	×0.910	×0.972	×1.027	4.27%
Triples /BIP	1.46%	÷1.006	×0.880	×0.972	×1.027	1.28%
Home runs /BIP	0.98%	÷0.909	×0.800	—	×1.027	0.88%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 105, 2B 108, 3B 101, K 106, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .318 → .274; ISO .084 → .075; BABIP .345 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Daytona Tortugas · 274 PAwOBA .365 → .302 (−63)K% 16.1% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.06%	÷1.035	×1.420	—	—	22.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.87%	÷0.994	×0.750	—	×0.998	10.44%
HBP% /PA	2.19%	—	×0.930	—	×0.998	2.03%
Singles /BIP	27.17%	÷1.006	×0.920	×0.982	×0.998	24.36%
Doubles /BIP	5.43%	÷1.088	×0.960	×0.982	×0.998	4.70%
Triples /BIP	2.17%	÷1.047	×0.810	×0.982	×0.998	1.65%
Home runs /BIP	1.63%	÷1.058	×0.880	—	×0.998	1.35%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 118, 3B 109, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .365 → .302; ISO .118 → .095; BABIP .350 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ADayton Dragons · 292 PAwOBA .368 → .292 (−76)K% 15.8% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.75%	÷0.984	×1.360	—	—	21.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.93%	÷1.055	×0.690	—	—	6.49%
HBP% /PA	3.42%	—	×0.780	—	—	2.67%
Singles /BIP	19.61%	÷1.005	×0.920	×0.993	—	17.81%
Doubles /BIP	9.80%	÷0.999	×0.830	×0.993	—	8.08%
Triples /BIP	2.94%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.993	—	2.31%
Home runs /BIP	2.45%	÷1.168	×0.800	—	—	1.68%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 97, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .368 → .292; ISO .188 → .143; BABIP .328 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Aaron Hickslast yr '24 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,651 PA	5.5	3,651	109	71	231	330	383	+7	-9	11.8	12.4
/162	664	20	13	+1.3	-1.6	2.1	pk7: 13
#2Gary Matthews'99-'10 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,617 PA	7.0	4,617	108	95	247*	323*	395*	-11	-3	10.6	11.1
/162	664	16	14	-1.6	-0.4	1.5	pk7: 12
#3Marvin Benard'95-'03 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,945 PA	4.4	2,945	54	105	259*	326*	387*	-8	+12	9.8	10.2
/162	664	12	24	-1.7	+2.6	2.2	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.3	2,827	71	70	237	323	373	+10	-9	9.2	9.2
/162	664	17	16	+2.4	-2.1	2.2	pk7: 9
#4Oddibe McDowell'85-'94 * career totals — 7 seasons, 3,172 PA	4.8	3,172	74	169	250*	322*	411*	+4	-12	9.2	9.2
/162	664	15	35	+0.8	-2.5	1.9	pk7: 9
#5Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#6Alejandro De Azalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,819 PA	4.2	2,819	51	89	259	325	396	-6	-12	7.0	7.2
/162	664	12	21	-1.4	-2.8	1.7	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
TJ Friedl (OGILVIE)	31	45	35	45	60	215/307/324	110	256	7	7	20%	10%	83	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Mark Johnson 2006 · MLB	30	46	41→40	44→40	55	223/301/325	102	255	8	5	16%	9%	80	-0.2	226/300/310	84	265	7	5	16%	9%	76	-0.4	228/306/286	58	265	5	1	15%	9%	70	-0.3
✕Andy Fox 2002 · MLB	31	45→52	46→40	51→60	53	226/305/350	124	261	14	15	19%	9%	87	+0.4	227/302/321	94	281	7	23	21%	8%	80	-0.2	233/312/310	77	292	4	31	20%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Jose Munoz 2010 · AAA	31	51→49	42→45	45→50	54	246/316/361	115	288	9	11	17%	9%	93	+0.8	222/299/322	100	274	8	8	20%	10%	78	-0.3	184/269/260	76	236	6	5	23%	10%	51	-0.8
✕Warren Morris 2005 · MLB	31	52→55	44→40	47→50	51	255/305/371	116	274	12	8	12%	6%	91	+0.7	228/279/350	122	257	14	14	17%	6%	77	-0.3	209/252/307	97	235	11	18	17%	5%	54	-0.9
✕Ramón Vázquez 2008 · MLB	31	44→54	44→45	49→50	51	218/290/336	118	266	11	6	22%	9%	78	-0.3	239/312/349	110	295	9	4	20%	9%	88	+0.5	242/316/335	92	301	6	1	20%	9%	87	+0.2
✕Erick Almonte 2009 · AAA	31	49→47	43→40	44→45	51	236/301/348	112	283	10	7	20%	9%	85	+0.2	241/293/330	89	307	7	7	22%	7%	77	-0.3	245/295/320	74	315	5	5	23%	6%	72	-0.4
✕Calvin Murray 2002 · MLB	31	50→52	43→40	46→50	56	243/322/359	116	276	10	15	16%	10%	95	+1.0	225/297/346	121	262	11	15	18%	8%	83	+0.1	243/306/325	82	288	4	16	16%	6%	79	-0.2
●Quinton McCracken 2002 · MLB	31	46→56	42→40	44→50	53	222/295/333	110	260	9	7	18%	9%	79	-0.2	259/316/371	112	308	6	9	16%	8%	95	+0.9	266/322/372	105	315	4	9	16%	7%	97	+0.5
✕Omar Quintanilla 2013 · MLB	31	46→56	45	42→45	46	231/283/359	129	275	13	5	21%	6%	80	-0.1	226/282/327	101	276	8	5	20%	7%	72	-0.7	221/278/302	81	271	5	3	19%	7%	65	-0.7
✕Luke Carlin 2012 · MLB	31	44	42→45	45	52	213/294/315	102	273	10	6	25%	10%	75	-0.5	206/279/295	89	253	8	6	21%	9%	65	-1.2	193/267/271	78	234	7	4	20%	9%	53	-0.9
✕Donnie Sadler 2006 · MLB	31	45	45→40	48→55	48	223/293/350	127	278	12	12	24%	8%	82	+0.0	220/288/332	112	284	8	14	24%	8%	76	-0.4	205/275/306	101	271	4	16	24%	9%	62	-0.4
✕Sherman Johnson 2021 · AAA	31	42→49	43→45	46→50	45	208/273/316	109	285	10	10	30%	8%	68	-1.0	200/286/307	107	285	9	9	30%	9%	71	-0.8	156/262/243	88	226	7	5	31%	11%	46	-1.2
✕Ryan Goins 2019 · MLB	31	45→55	42→45	46→45	43	220/266/327	108	275	9	6	24%	6%	66	-1.1	230/287/344	114	322	10	6	30%	7%	78	-0.3	209/258/291	82	298	7	3	31%	6%	53	-1.3
✕Tyler Heineman 2022 · MLB	31	48→46	41→45	43→50	46	233/292/333	100	284	9	7	21%	7%	78	-0.3	213/288/292	79	260	6	11	19%	8%	68	-1.0	215/308/308	93	267	9	14	21%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Ender Inciarte 2022 · MLB	31	46→56	42→45	49→60	49	222/290/323	101	272	9	11	22%	8%	75	-0.5	226/286/346	120	273	13	14	21%	7%	79	-0.2	208/262/306	98	241	12	23	19%	7%	56	-0.4
✕Matt Erickson 2006 · AAA	31	51	40	49→45	46	244/314/336	92	297	8	9	20%	6%	87	+0.4	234/294/306	72	285	4	8	18%	6%	72	-0.7	236/294/291	55	287	2	6	18%	6%	65	-0.6
✕Howie Clark 2005 · MLB	31	51→55	45→40	44→40	54	248/314/372	124	265	12	5	12%	8%	95	+1.0	253/311/350	97	270	9	6	10%	8%	88	+0.5	251/305/325	74	267	6	5	8%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Wiki Gonzalez 2005 · MLB	31	47	42→45	48→30	54	225/301/337	112	258	9	7	16%	9%	82	+0.0	245/295/370	125	257	13	5	11%	6%	88	+0.4	240/285/357	117	246	14	2	9%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Val Majewski 2012 · AAA	31	46→54	46→45	50	46	231/289/361	130	284	14	11	24%	7%	83	+0.1	217/268/315	98	265	7	9	20%	6%	64	-1.3	196/241/265	68	238	1	5	17%	5%	40	-1.4
✕Peter Mooney 2021 · AAA	30	45→50	42→40	48→45	49	217/281/324	106	261	9	10	20%	8%	72	-0.7	199/259/298	99	261	10	10	26%	7%	57	-1.8	128/186/170	42	167	5	3	27%	7%	-2	-1.5

TJ Friedl

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps