TJ Friedl — OGILVIE

TJ FriedlCF Cincinnati Reds

Age 30 L/L 5'8" / 180 lbs MLB HR +6% Svc 3.651 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION295 act + 356 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 86102vR 109

AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .320 / .353

PA356

HR7

SB8

K%20

BB%9

BABIP277

ISO122

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

905.4%

xwOBA

330.288

POWER35

Barrel%

102.9

Avg EV

2186.9

Bat Spd

4570.8

EYE60

Chase%

9019.4%

SPEED45

Sprint

3226.6

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1109 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

279

830

—

wRC+

106

▶R

wOBA

305

324

▶R

ISO

100

130

▶▶R

BABIP

272

273

—

18.6%

16.1%

▶R

BB%

9.3%

10.8%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2021

Service 3.651 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	-$0.9M
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+1.3	$10M	+$6M
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$13M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	20	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	137	126	30	7	1	2	8	36	3	7	2	238	299	357	656	119	318	26	6	290	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	137	121	42	11	2	3	13	25	3	7	2	347	423	545	969	198	419	18	9	426	184	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A	2 teams	—	491	442	102	22	6	5	26	120	15	16	9	231	296	342	638	111	303	24	5	273	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A	2 teams	—	491	429	117	26	8	7	39	85	15	16	9	273	354	420	774	147	324	17	8	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA	2 teams	—	570	507	119	16	5	5	48	126	12	30	9	235	316	316	631	81	302	22	8	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA	2 teams	—	570	489	139	20	7	5	66	100	12	30	9	284	383	384	767	100	347	18	12	349	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	269	233	46	7	4	5	22	69	11	13	4	197	297	326	623	129	255	26	8	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	269	226	53	11	4	5	29	50	11	13	4	235	350	385	735	150	277	19	11	331	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	2 teams	—	484	437	103	15	6	10	28	89	13	13	7	236	301	366	667	130	272	18	6	290	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	2 teams	—	484	417	111	16	5	13	48	67	13	13	7	266	360	422	782	156	287	14	10	348	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB	2 teams	—	499	439	101	17	8	12	39	103	10	17	4	230	307	387	695	157	269	21	8	302	89	-6	+2	-2	+2	+14	1.0
2022	26	MLB	2 teams	—	499	430	111	19	8	16	48	88	10	17	4	258	346	451	797	193	285	18	10	347	123	+13	+2	-2	+2	+14	3.0
2023	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	556	488	133	21	8	17	47	90	10	27	6	273	349	453	801	180	302	16	8	345	122	+14	+3	+5	+2	+16	4.0
2023	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	556	488	136	22	8	18	47	90	10	27	6	279	354	467	821	189	308	16	8	357	131	+20	+3	+5	+2	+16	4.6
2024	28	MLB	2 teams	—	373	325	69	8	1	12	29	57	13	9	1	212	302	354	656	142	219	15	8	295	84	-7	+1	-5	+1	+11	0.2
2024	28	MLB	2 teams	—	373	324	72	9	1	13	30	56	13	9	1	222	313	377	690	154	228	15	8	308	94	-2	+1	-5	+1	+11	0.6
2025	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	685	579	148	21	2	13	81	115	16	12	3	256	362	366	729	111	296	17	12	328	109	+7	+1	-2	+2	+19	2.9
2025	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	685	579	151	22	2	14	81	115	16	12	3	261	367	378	745	117	301	17	12	337	116	+13	+1	-2	+2	+19	3.5
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	30	MLB	CIN	—	295	260	50	10	1	5	22	72	7	7	0	192	273	296	570	104	245	24	7	256	54	-15	+1	+0	+1	+8	-0.4
YTD	30	MLB	CIN	—	295	258	53	11	1	6	24	69	7	7	0	205	291	326	616	120	255	23	8	277	70	-10	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.1
ROS	30	MLB	CIN	100%	356	312	72	11	3	7	33	72	8	8	1	231	320	353	673	122	277	20	9	308	94	-2	+1	-2	+1	+10	0.8
ROS	30	MLB	CIN	100%	356	312	74	11	3	8	33	72	8	8	1	237	326	369	694	131	279	20	9	294	83	-7	+1	-2	+1	+10	0.3
FULL	30	MLB	CIN	—	651	572	124	21	4	13	55	144	15	15	1	217	302	336	638	119	266	22	8	276	70	-22	+3	-2	+2	+18	-0.1
TOT	30	MLB	CIN	—	651	572	122	21	4	12	55	144	15	15	1	213	299	327	626	114	263	22	8	285	76	-18	+3	-2	+2	+18	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	CIN	100%	660	579	136	21	5	14	61	135	15	13	2	235	324	361	685	126	280	20	9	309	94	-4	+2	-7	+2	+19	1.2
2028	32	MLB	CIN	100%	658	578	133	20	5	13	60	137	15	10	2	230	319	349	668	119	277	21	9	303	90	-7	+1	-8	+2	+19	0.7
2029	33	MLB	CIN	100%	567	497	112	16	4	11	52	121	13	7	1	225	315	340	655	115	272	21	9	296	85	-10	+1	-8	+2	+16	0.1
2030	34	MLB	CIN	100%	493	434	95	13	4	9	45	109	11	4	1	219	308	329	638	111	266	22	9	287	78	-12	+0	-8	+2	+14	-0.4
2031	35	MLB	CIN	100%	437	385	80	10	3	7	39	100	10	3	0	208	297	304	601	96	260	23	9	277	71	-15	+1	-8	+2	+12	-0.9
2027	31	MLB	CIN	100%	660	579	137	21	5	14	61	135	15	13	2	237	325	363	688	126	282	20	9	294	83	-13	+2	-7	+2	+19	0.3
2028	32	MLB	CIN	100%	658	578	133	20	5	13	60	137	15	10	2	230	319	349	668	119	279	21	9	288	79	-16	+1	-8	+2	+19	-0.1
2029	33	MLB	CIN	100%	567	497	112	16	4	11	52	121	13	7	1	225	315	340	655	115	275	21	9	282	74	-17	+1	-8	+2	+16	-0.6
2030	34	MLB	CIN	100%	493	434	95	13	4	9	45	109	11	4	1	219	308	329	638	111	269	22	9	273	67	-18	+0	-8	+2	+14	-1.0
2031	35	MLB	CIN	100%	437	385	81	11	3	7	39	100	10	3	0	210	300	309	609	99	262	23	9	263	60	-20	+1	-8	+2	+12	-1.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5047	4405	1049	152	40	116	468	973	117	100	19	238	327	370	697	132	279	19	9	303	90	-56	+12	-45	+21	+143	7.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	567	135	20	5	15	60	125	15	13	2	238	327	370	697	132	278	19	9	303	90	-7	+2	-6	+3	+18	1.0
Career	—			—	7235	6361	1479	225	65	142	618	1479	175	189	52	233	318	355	673	123	279	20	9	300	88	-101	+17	-45	+26	+205	10.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	133	20	6	13	56	133	16	17	5	233	319	357	676	124	280	20	9	300	88	-9	+1	-4	+2	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	20	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	137	121	42	11	2	3	13	25	3	7	2	347	423	545	969	198	419	18	9	426	184	+13	+1	—	—	+4	1.8
2017	21	A+	Daytona Tortugas	—	199	179	46	6	2	2	10	39	5	2	1	257	314	346	661	89	317	20	5	293	82	-4	+0	—	—	+6	0.2
2017	21	A	Dayton Dragons	—	292	250	71	20	6	5	29	46	10	14	8	284	381	472	853	188	328	16	10	375	145	+15	-0	—	—	+8	2.3
2018	22	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	296	261	72	10	3	2	28	56	6	19	5	276	359	360	719	84	345	19	9	329	110	+3	+2	—	—	+8	1.4
2018	22	A+	Daytona Tortugas	—	274	228	67	10	4	3	38	44	6	11	4	294	408	412	820	118	350	16	14	371	142	+13	+1	—	—	+8	2.2
2019	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	269	226	53	11	4	5	29	50	11	13	4	235	350	385	735	150	277	19	11	331	112	+4	+1	—	—	+8	1.2
2021	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	36	31	9	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0	290	371	419	791	129	276	6	11	347	124	+1	+0	-0	+2	+1	0.4
2021	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	448	386	102	15	5	12	44	65	13	13	7	264	359	422	781	158	288	15	10	348	124	+12	-0	—	—	+13	2.5
2022	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	258	225	54	10	5	8	20	40	7	7	2	240	321	436	757	196	251	16	8	328	109	+3	+1	-2	+2	+7	1.1
2022	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	241	205	57	9	3	8	28	48	3	10	2	278	373	468	841	190	327	20	12	366	138	+10	+1	—	—	+7	1.9
2023	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	556	488	136	22	8	18	47	90	10	27	6	279	354	467	821	189	308	16	8	357	131	+20	+3	+5	+2	+16	4.6
2024	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	341	297	67	5	1	13	26	52	12	9	1	226	313	380	694	155	229	15	8	309	95	-2	+1	-5	+1	+10	0.5
2024	28	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	32	27	5	4	0	0	4	4	1	0	0	185	312	333	646	148	217	12	12	299	87	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2025	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	685	579	151	22	2	14	81	115	16	12	3	261	367	378	745	117	301	17	12	337	116	+13	+1	-2	+2	+19	3.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1876	1620	417	60	16	54	178	299	45	55	12	257	347	414	761	157	282	16	9	337	116	+34	+6	-4	+9	+53	10.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Younglast yr '18 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	13	5,316	191	142	235	314	428	-0	+3	21.3	20.7
	/162	664	24	18	235	314	428	-0.0	+0.4	2.7	pk7: 20
#2Gary Matthews Jr.last yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,572 PA	11	4,572	108	93	258	331	407	-5	-10	16.2	17.2
	/162	664	16	14	258	331	407	-0.7	-1.4	2.3	pk7: 18
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	11	5,520	124	111	234	321	362	-2	-14	14.3	14.4
	/162	664	15	13	234	321	362	-0.2	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 14
#3Aaron Hickslast yr '24 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,651 PA	12	3,651	109	71	231	330	383	+7	-9	11.8	12.4
	/162	664	20	13	231	330	383	+1.3	-1.6	2.1	pk7: 13
#4Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	9	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
	/162	664	13	8	246	327	370	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10
#5Damion Easleylast yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,995 PA	9	2,995	77	33	247	323	396	-2	-15	7.8	8.3
	/162	664	17	7	247	323	396	-0.5	-3.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#6Desi Relafordlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,443 PA	6	2,443	34	64	246	329	356	-1	-7	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	9	17	246	329	356	-0.3	-1.8	1.4	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
TJ Friedl (OGILVIE)	30	45	35	45	60	213/299/327	114	263	12	15	22%	8%	76	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alex Cora 2006 · MLB	30	51→53	42→45	48→50	51	243/309/351	108	258	10	9	11%	6%	87	+0.8	240/309/343	103	261	7	9	11%	6%	85	+0.7	246/318/334	88	268	3	8	9%	7%	82	+0.2
✕Ender Inciarte 2021 · MLB	30	49→59	43→45	52→60	54	237/311/353	115	271	10	18	16%	9%	88	+0.9	228/291/341	113	280	12	12	22%	8%	76	+0.1	224/280/316	92	280	10	12	23%	7%	61	-0.2
✕Mark Johnson 2006 · MLB	30	47	42→40	44→40	55	226/305/330	104	259	9	5	16%	10%	80	+0.4	232/307/318	86	273	7	5	16%	9%	78	+0.2	240/319/300	61	279	5	1	15%	10%	76	+0.0
✕Jose Munoz 2009 · AAA	30	52→49	43→45	45→50	54	249/321/361	112	290	9	11	17%	9%	95	+1.4	242/316/360	118	287	9	10	18%	10%	92	+1.2	225/307/325	100	279	8	6	21%	10%	76	+0.0
✕Jack Hannahan 2011 · MLB	31	42→52	45	47→45	49	210/283/334	124	269	12	4	26%	9%	72	-0.2	232/306/351	119	290	11	4	23%	9%	86	+0.8	237/318/345	108	296	9	1	21%	10%	87	+0.4
✕Ryan Langerhans 2010 · MLB	30	48→40	48→50	47→50	52	234/317/381	147	300	14	13	26%	10%	98	+1.6	216/310/363	147	308	16	13	32%	12%	92	+1.2	194/291/348	154	278	19	8	35%	12%	77	+0.1
✕Andy Fox 2001 · MLB	30	48→53	43→40	51→60	50	236/304/349	114	280	11	18	20%	8%	85	+0.7	234/320/340	106	283	9	22	19%	10%	89	+1.0	236/322/314	78	297	4	31	20%	9%	76	+0.0
✕Brock Holt 2018 · MLB	30	49→59	41→45	46→50	52	233/308/331	98	282	8	8	20%	9%	82	+0.5	252/334/365	113	313	9	8	21%	10%	101	+1.8	262/347/372	110	330	8	7	21%	10%	104	+0.9
✕David Lough 2016 · MLB	30	49→59	44→50	46→50	43	240/282/355	116	281	11	13	19%	5%	76	+0.1	225/278/320	95	270	7	9	19%	6%	66	-0.6	224/287/303	79	260	2	6	14%	7%	60	-0.4
✕Chris Stewart 2012 · MLB	30	47	42→45	47→45	51	226/293/331	106	248	10	5	14%	7%	76	+0.0	226/295/310	84	259	7	7	15%	8%	70	-0.3	265/334/313	48	316	1	0	15%	7%	81	+0.1
✕Dustin Ackley 2018 · MLB	30	45→55	42→50	45→50	50	220/280/323	103	256	9	5	18%	8%	67	-0.5	223/282/325	102	260	9	6	17%	7%	69	-0.4	218/281/305	87	247	8	2	14%	8%	63	-0.4
✕Adam Everett 2007 · MLB	30	50→53	43→45	50	47	241/289/356	115	269	9	14	14%	5%	79	+0.3	230/284/334	104	259	8	9	14%	6%	71	-0.3	223/277/308	85	254	5	7	14%	6%	60	-0.5
✕Desi Relaford 2005 · MLB	31	49→52	42→45	49→55	53	238/307/344	106	261	9	14	13%	8%	85	+0.7	218/295/316	98	255	8	11	17%	8%	72	-0.2	211/292/299	88	254	6	11	18%	9%	62	-0.5
✕Shane Robinson 2015 · MLB	30	50→59	39→45	48→55	53	238/305/328	90	273	7	11	15%	8%	79	+0.3	238/292/319	81	277	4	16	15%	7%	70	-0.3	251/300/319	68	290	2	20	13%	6%	71	-0.1
✕Ramón Vázquez 2008 · MLB	31	45→55	44→45	49→50	51	220/292/338	119	268	11	6	22%	9%	76	+0.1	242/319/352	110	300	9	4	21%	10%	92	+1.2	247/326/340	93	308	6	1	20%	10%	84	+0.3
✕Daniel Descalso 2017 · MLB	30	46→55	44→50	44→45	56	224/308/339	116	265	11	6	20%	11%	84	+0.6	225/324/377	152	283	15	5	24%	12%	101	+1.8	213/322/365	153	272	14	3	25%	13%	94	+0.8
✕Bobby Crosby 2010 · MLB	30	47→50	44→50	47→50	52	231/294/354	123	261	11	8	16%	8%	81	+0.4	229/299/347	118	273	10	7	19%	9%	82	+0.5	213/288/286	73	268	3	0	20%	9%	54	-0.5
✕Tyler Saladino 2019 · MLB	30	45→47	43→45	50→55	46	220/285/327	107	284	11	16	26%	8%	71	-0.3	219/288/382	163	284	20	14	29%	8%	87	+0.8	199/271/381	183	248	24	14	30%	8%	76	+0.1
✕Warren Morris 2005 · MLB	31	52→55	44→40	47→50	51	255/307/372	117	275	12	8	12%	7%	91	+1.1	232/283/356	124	262	14	14	17%	7%	77	+0.1	218/261/319	101	245	12	18	17%	6%	56	-0.6
✕Ryan Goins 2018 · MLB	30	46→56	44→45	43→45	46	227/279/343	116	277	11	5	22%	7%	72	-0.2	233/288/352	119	312	10	6	27%	7%	78	+0.2	221/277/322	101	321	8	5	32%	7%	62	-0.5