Jacob Amaya

SS Reno Aces

Age 28 R/R 5'10" / 180 lbs AAA HR -11% Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2029

Overview

AAAArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	25	AAAHOU	302	.221/.309/.330	5	6	49	—	.191/.256/.282
2024	25	MLBCWS	72	.176/.222/.191	0	1	18	-0.1
2025	26	AAA/INTL2 orgs	290	.249/.363/.441	13	6	86	—	.203/.280/.299
2025	26	MLBCWS	73	.106/.145/.121	0	2	-32	-0.5
2026	27	AAAARI	293	.253/.365/.420	8	2	78	—	.224/.302/.355
2027PROJ10% MLB	28	MLBARI	16	.193/.267/.294	0	0	56	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	29	MLBARI	66	.194/.267/.294	1	1	56	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.6 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.000First FA2030

2027Arb-1$0.2M2028Arb-2$0.4M2029Ext$0.6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

Speed52

Barrel%10

xwOBA10

Avg EV10

Bat Spd10

CompsPete Kozma (age 28) · Angelo Castellano (age 28) · Jeff Mathis (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 5956vR 46

AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .267 / .294

PA16

HR0

K%31

BB%6

BABIP262

ISO107

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT45

xAVG

100.166

POWER55

Barrel%

101.2

Avg EV

1083.0

Bat Spd

1066.8

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

5227.6

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 145 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

-17

◀◀L

wOBA

180

143

◀◀L

ISO

020

011

◀◀L

BABIP

262

194

◀◀L

36.5%

26.9%

▶▶R

BB%

7.7%

3.2%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2024

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	18	ROK	AZL Dodgers	—	140	118	30	4	1	2	19	25	2	4	2	254	367	356	723	102	304	18	14	332	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A	Great Lakes Loons	—	119	98	26	1	0	1	20	18	0	3	3	265	390	306	696	41	316	15	17	328	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK	Ogden Raptors	—	155	127	44	9	3	3	27	29	1	11	4	346	465	535	1.000	189	432	19	17	442	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	89	80	20	3	2	1	7	15	0	1	3	250	310	375	685	125	292	17	8	300	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	Great Lakes Loons	—	470	386	101	25	4	6	74	83	4	4	4	262	386	394	780	132	314	18	16	352	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	476	417	90	15	1	12	52	103	2	5	0	216	306	343	649	127	254	22	11	293	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	67	54	18	3	0	3	13	13	0	1	1	333	463	556	1.018	222	395	19	19	448	189	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	351	294	76	10	1	8	49	83	4	3	1	259	372	381	753	122	329	24	14	341	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	216	182	48	10	3	9	32	29	0	3	1	264	374	500	874	236	267	13	15	381	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	566	484	122	26	2	15	70	106	3	6	2	252	350	407	757	155	288	19	12	336	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	72	68	12	1	0	0	4	28	0	1	0	176	222	191	413	15	300	39	6	195	18	-7	+0	+1	+4	+2	-0.1
2024	25	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	302	267	59	10	2	5	32	72	2	6	0	221	309	330	639	109	283	24	11	292	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	73	66	7	1	0	0	3	16	0	2	0	106	145	121	266	15	132	22	4	121	-32	-11	+0	+0	+4	+2	-0.5
2025	26	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	219	188	47	5	0	9	29	64	1	5	4	250	353	420	773	170	328	29	13	347	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	INTL	Jaguares de Nayarit	—	71	57	14	3	0	4	14	19	0	1	0	246	394	509	903	263	294	27	20	398	156	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA	Reno Aces	—	293	245	62	11	3	8	42	73	1	2	0	253	365	420	785	167	323	25	14	348	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	145	134	19	2	0	0	7	44	0	3	0	142	184	157	341	15	204	30	5	157	-7	-19	+1	+1	+8	+3	-0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	18	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers	—	140	125	25	3	1	2	12	36	2	4	2	200	281	288	569	88	257	26	9	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	—	119	103	26	1	0	1	15	24	0	3	3	252	347	291	639	39	313	20	13	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	Ogden Raptors	—	155	138	33	6	2	2	16	42	1	11	4	239	323	355	678	116	339	27	10	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+ MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	89	82	17	3	1	1	5	20	0	1	3	207	253	305	558	98	257	22	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	—	470	410	89	22	3	5	50	109	4	4	4	217	308	322	630	105	273	23	11	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	476	434	82	13	1	10	35	130	2	5	0	189	253	293	545	104	236	27	7	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	351	310	72	9	1	6	33	99	4	3	1	232	314	326	640	94	310	28	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	216	191	43	8	2	7	23	37	0	3	1	225	308	398	706	173	242	17	11	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	566	505	117	25	2	11	49	122	3	6	2	232	303	354	658	123	271	22	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	72	68	12	1	0	0	4	28	0	1	0	176	222	191	413	15	300	39	6	195	18	-7	+0	+1	+4	+2	-0.1
2024	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	302	277	53	9	2	4	22	86	2	6	0	191	256	282	537	90	260	28	7	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	73	66	7	1	0	0	3	16	0	2	0	106	145	121	266	15	132	22	4	120	-32	-11	+0	+0	+4	+2	-0.5
2025	26	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	219	197	40	4	0	5	20	77	1	5	4	203	280	299	579	96	305	35	9	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	293	259	58	10	3	6	28	88	1	2	0	224	302	355	657	131	295	30	10	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers	—	140	125	25	3	1	2	12	36	2	4	2	200	281	288	569	88	261	26	9	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers	—	140	118	30	4	1	2	19	25	2	4	2	254	367	356	723	102	304	18	14	332	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	274	241	59	7	2	3	31	66	1	14	7	245	333	328	661	83	326	24	11	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	274	225	70	10	3	4	47	47	1	14	7	311	432	436	868	124	379	17	17	392	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	559	492	107	24	5	6	55	129	4	5	7	217	301	323	624	106	277	23	10	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	559	466	121	28	6	7	81	98	4	5	7	260	374	391	764	131	310	18	14	344	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	543	496	94	15	1	12	40	148	2	6	1	190	253	296	549	107	240	27	7	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	543	471	108	18	1	15	65	116	2	6	1	229	325	367	693	138	270	21	12	313	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	567	501	117	18	4	14	56	135	4	6	2	234	316	369	685	136	288	24	10	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	567	476	124	20	4	17	81	112	4	6	2	261	373	426	799	166	303	20	14	356	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	566	505	117	25	2	11	49	122	3	6	2	232	303	354	658	123	278	22	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	566	484	122	26	2	15	70	106	3	6	2	252	350	407	757	155	288	19	12	336	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	374	345	65	10	2	4	26	114	2	7	0	188	249	264	513	75	268	30	7	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	374	335	71	11	2	5	36	100	2	7	0	212	292	301	594	90	286	27	10	274	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	363	328	59	7	0	6	29	116	1	8	4	180	249	256	505	76	252	32	8	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	363	311	68	9	0	13	46	99	1	8	4	219	321	373	694	154	271	27	13	311	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	293	259	58	10	3	6	28	88	1	2	0	224	302	355	657	131	310	30	10	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	—	293	245	62	11	3	8	42	73	1	2	0	253	365	420	785	167	323	25	14	348	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers	—	140	125	25	3	1	2	12	36	2	4	2	200	281	288	569	88	257	26	9	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	274	240	59	7	2	3	31	66	1	14	7	246	333	329	662	83	328	24	11	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	559	495	107	24	5	6	55	129	4	5	7	216	301	321	622	105	270	23	10	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	543	496	94	15	1	12	40	148	2	6	1	190	253	296	549	107	236	27	7	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	567	502	117	18	4	14	56	135	4	6	2	233	316	369	684	135	284	24	10	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	566	509	117	25	2	11	49	122	3	6	2	230	303	352	655	122	271	22	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	374	343	65	10	2	4	26	114	2	7	0	190	249	265	515	76	268	30	7	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	363	330	59	7	0	6	29	116	1	8	4	179	249	255	503	76	262	32	8	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	293	262	58	10	3	6	28	88	1	2	0	221	302	351	653	130	295	30	10	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	374	343	65	10	2	4	26	114	2	7	0	190	249	265	515	76	268	30	7	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	363	330	59	7	0	6	29	116	1	8	4	179	249	255	503	76	262	32	8	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	293	262	58	10	3	6	28	88	1	2	0	221	302	351	653	130	295	30	10	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	ARI	10%	343	309	59	9	2	6	30	100	1	5	1	189	263	286	548	97	254	29	9	251	56	-18	+1	-1	+4	+7	-0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	ARI	10%	16	15	2	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	193	267	294	561	101	262	31	6	256	56	-1	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	ARI	27%	242	218	41	6	1	4	21	70	1	3	1	189	263	286	549	97	255	29	9	251	56	-13	+0	-2	+3	+5	-0.7
2028	29	MLB CTX	ARI	27%	66	60	11	2	0	1	6	19	0	1	0	194	267	294	561	100	263	29	9	256	56	-3	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	211	194	30	4	0	1	13	63	0	4	0	155	208	191	398	36	218	30	6	188	67	-22	+1	+1	+9	+5	-0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	598	92	12	0	3	40	194	0	12	0	154	207	189	396	35	217	30	6	188	67	-68	+2	+2	+27	+14	-2.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4076	3650	769	129	22	71	360	1069	22	63	27	211	285	316	602	106	274	26	9	267	67	-39	+1	-1	+12	+12	-1.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	123	21	4	11	57	170	4	10	4	211	286	318	604	107	275	26	9	267	67	-47	+1	-1	+15	+14	-1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 293 PAwOBA .341 → .284 (−57)K% 24.9% → 29.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.91%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	29.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.99%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.992	9.58%
HBP% /PA	0.34%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.32%
Singles /BIP	23.26%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.024	×0.992	21.97%
Doubles /BIP	6.40%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.024	×0.992	5.39%
Triples /BIP	1.74%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.024	×0.992	1.72%
Home runs /BIP	4.65%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.992	3.23%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .341 → .284; ISO .167 → .133; BABIP .323 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 219 PAwOBA .340 → .262 (−78)K% 29.2% → 35.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.22%	÷0.996	×1.200	—	—	35.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.24%	÷0.984	×0.690	—	×1.003	9.31%
HBP% /PA	0.46%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.43%
Singles /BIP	26.61%	÷1.002	×0.930	×1.050	×1.003	26.00%
Doubles /BIP	4.03%	÷0.980	×0.830	×1.050	×1.003	3.60%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.961	×0.970	×1.050	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.26%	÷1.320	×0.700	—	×1.003	3.86%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 100, 2B 96, 3B 92, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .340 → .262; ISO .170 → .097; BABIP .328 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 302 PAwOBA .286 → .241 (−45)K% 23.8% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.84%	÷1.006	×1.200	—	—	28.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.60%	÷1.022	×0.690	—	×1.018	7.28%
HBP% /PA	0.66%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.63%
Singles /BIP	21.54%	÷1.035	×0.930	×1.010	×1.018	19.90%
Doubles /BIP	5.13%	÷0.953	×0.830	×1.010	×1.018	4.59%
Triples /BIP	1.03%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.010	×1.018	1.14%
Home runs /BIP	2.56%	÷0.903	×0.700	—	×1.018	2.02%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 107, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .286 → .241; ISO .109 → .093; BABIP .283 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 566 PAwOBA .333 → .290 (−43)K% 18.7% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.73%	÷1.040	×1.200	—	—	21.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.37%	÷1.008	×0.690	—	×1.033	8.74%
HBP% /PA	0.53%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.51%
Singles /BIP	20.90%	÷1.016	×0.930	×1.022	×1.033	20.18%
Doubles /BIP	6.88%	÷0.955	×0.830	×1.022	×1.033	6.31%
Triples /BIP	0.53%	÷1.039	×0.970	×1.022	×1.033	0.52%
Home runs /BIP	3.97%	÷1.031	×0.700	—	×1.033	2.78%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 108, K 108, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .333 → .290; ISO .155 → .127; BABIP .288 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 351 PAwOBA .337 → .289 (−48)K% 23.6% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.65%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	28.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.96%	÷1.073	×0.690	—	×1.048	9.41%
HBP% /PA	1.14%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.12%
Singles /BIP	27.01%	÷1.027	×0.930	×1.010	×1.048	25.89%
Doubles /BIP	4.74%	÷0.958	×0.830	×1.010	×1.048	4.35%
Triples /BIP	0.47%	÷0.955	×0.970	×1.010	×1.048	0.51%
Home runs /BIP	3.79%	÷0.997	×0.700	—	×1.048	2.79%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 105, 2B 92, 3B 91, K 102, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .337 → .289; ISO .122 → .101; BABIP .329 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AATulsa Drillers · 216 PAwOBA .375 → .318 (−57)K% 13.4% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.43%	÷0.971	×1.220	—	—	16.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.81%	÷0.975	×0.700	—	×1.012	10.76%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.99%	÷0.953	×0.920	×0.983	×1.012	16.32%
Doubles /BIP	6.54%	÷1.006	×0.840	×0.983	×1.012	5.43%
Triples /BIP	1.96%	÷1.150	×0.940	×0.983	×1.012	1.59%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷0.993	×0.800	—	×1.012	4.80%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 91, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 94, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .375 → .318; ISO .236 → .198; BABIP .267 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AATulsa Drillers · 476 PAwOBA .289 → .243 (−46)K% 21.6% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.64%	÷0.966	×1.220	—	—	27.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.92%	÷1.051	×0.690	—	×1.027	7.37%
HBP% /PA	0.42%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.37%
Singles /BIP	19.75%	÷1.030	×0.940	×1.008	×1.027	18.66%
Doubles /BIP	4.78%	÷1.026	×0.870	×1.008	×1.027	4.19%
Triples /BIP	0.32%	÷0.900	×0.920	×1.008	×1.027	0.34%
Home runs /BIP	3.82%	÷0.935	×0.780	—	×1.027	3.28%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 106, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .289 → .243; ISO .127 → .109; BABIP .254 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AGreat Lakes Loons · 470 PAwOBA .347 → .283 (−64)K% 17.7% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.66%	÷1.035	×1.360	—	—	23.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.53%	÷1.031	×0.690	—	×1.015	10.55%
HBP% /PA	0.85%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.67%
Singles /BIP	21.78%	÷1.002	×0.920	×0.950	×1.015	19.28%
Doubles /BIP	8.25%	÷0.934	×0.830	×0.950	×1.015	7.07%
Triples /BIP	1.32%	÷1.061	×0.910	×0.950	×1.015	1.09%
Home runs /BIP	1.98%	÷1.018	×0.800	—	×1.015	1.58%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 100, 2B 87, 3B 112, K 107, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .347 → .283; ISO .132 → .112; BABIP .314 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#2Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#3Hector Torres'68-'77 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,889 PA	2.8	1,889	18	7	215*	262*	312*	+16	+3	-2.1	-0.9
/162	664	6	2	+5.7	+1.2	-0.7	pk7: 0
#4Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.3	227	1	4	157	209	201	+2	+1	-1.4	-1.3
/162	664	4	12	+7.1	+3.9	-4.1	pk7: -1
#5Jim Mason'71-'79 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	12	2	204*	262*	306*	+18	-14	-4.1	-2.9
/162	664	5	1	+6.7	-5.3	-1.6	pk7: -2
#6Jackie Hernandez'65-'73 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,609 PA	2.4	1,609	12	25	212*	258*	298*	+16	-16	-5.1	-3.5
/162	664	5	10	+6.6	-6.8	-2.1	pk7: -2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jacob Amaya (OGILVIE)	28	45	55	50	60	187/260/283	96	254	3	2	29%	9%	56	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Pete Kozma 2016 · MLB	28	43→47	39→45	45→50	48	207/268/288	81	248	6	11	19%	7%	59	-1.7	190/239/259	69	243	5	11	23%	5%	41	-3.0	188/235/276	88	231	6	6	21%	5%	41	-2.0
✕Angelo Castellano 2023 · AAA	28	38→44	40→45	47→50	44	190/253/273	83	247	8	12	26%	7%	50	-2.3	218/281/343	125	267	14	14	23%	7%	76	-0.4	221/285/357	136	259	17	15	21%	8%	78	-0.1
✕Jeff Mathis 2011 · MLB	28	40→48	43→50	45	42	204/259/310	106	264	12	7	27%	6%	60	-1.6	198/244/316	118	260	12	5	28%	5%	56	-1.9	208/255/312	104	282	8	1	28%	5%	60	-0.4
✕Jason Delay 2023 · MLB	28	41	39→45	42→40	40	202/250/286	84	278	6	5	29%	6%	51	-2.3	221/278/305	84	288	5	5	23%	6%	65	-1.2	212/268/277	65	275	2	2	22%	6%	54	-0.7
✕Yadiel Rivera 2019 · MLB	27	39→49	38→45	46→50	39	192/245/267	75	277	6	8	32%	6%	45	-2.7	219/257/323	104	313	12	17	33%	5%	62	-1.4	225/250/332	107	324	14	23	34%	3%	58	-1.1
✕Craig Tatum 2011 · MLB	28	45→47	39→45	44→30	46	218/274/305	86	275	7	4	23%	7%	64	-1.3	211/272/296	85	267	7	7	22%	7%	61	-1.5	179/238/213	34	233	0	3	22%	7%	30	-1.1
✕Chris Rabago 2021 · AAA	28	40	41→40	49→55	44	197/257/295	98	265	8	14	28%	7%	56	-1.9	193/260/278	85	288	7	11	33%	7%	53	-2.1	162/233/221	59	250	5	8	35%	7%	28	-1.2
✕Guillermo Quiroz 2010 · MLB	28	43	43→45	47→50	42	214/255/324	110	256	11	3	22%	5%	61	-1.5	216/264/337	121	281	12	3	27%	5%	68	-1.0	204/260/329	125	265	13	1	27%	6%	64	-0.6
✕Deven Marrero 2019 · MLB	28	40→50	40→45	49→50	38	198/241/285	87	278	7	11	31%	5%	47	-2.5	198/253/312	114	277	13	11	32%	7%	59	-1.7	184/243/283	99	253	12	10	31%	7%	45	-1.2
✕Trent Giambrone 2022 · AAA	28	35→41	43→50	48→55	41	180/244/284	105	257	11	13	34%	7%	49	-2.4	187/251/273	86	269	7	15	31%	7%	49	-2.4	154/219/212	59	222	4	19	31%	6%	22	-2.1
✕Jesús Sucre 2016 · MLB	28	43	38→40	43→40	42	207/241/281	74	249	6	4	20%	4%	45	-2.7	232/272/337	105	271	11	6	18%	4%	71	-0.8	238/274/330	93	272	11	3	17%	3%	70	-0.3
✕Zach Remillard 2022 · AAA	28	39→49	42→40	50→55	40	194/261/292	97	270	11	14	31%	6%	58	-1.7	210/276/295	85	286	7	18	27%	7%	63	-1.3	205/270/278	73	279	6	19	27%	7%	56	-1.2
✕Ryan Jorgensen 2007 · AAA	28	38	44→45	48→30	44	197/263/310	113	259	13	6	29%	7%	62	-1.4	213/262/331	118	273	13	5	26%	6%	66	-1.1	208/251/320	112	263	12	1	25%	5%	57	-0.8
✕Joe Hudson 2019 · AAA	28	41	40→45	47→40	44	201/258/295	94	266	7	3	27%	7%	56	-1.9	195/249/309	114	282	13	4	34%	7%	57	-1.8	168/269/293	125	244	17	8	36%	10%	60	-0.5
✕Clint Sammons 2010 · MLB	27	41→51	42→40	50→45	42	205/250/301	96	253	10	10	23%	5%	55	-2.0	183/237/291	108	231	13	7	27%	6%	48	-2.5	141/193/225	84	174	12	2	27%	5%	15	-1.8
✕Jake Wald 2009 · AAA	28	42	40→45	51→50	41	202/263/298	96	284	7	10	30%	6%	59	-1.6	189/253/274	85	293	6	8	35%	7%	50	-2.3	159/227/225	65	255	5	5	37%	7%	27	-1.8
✕Bubba Starling 2021 · MLB	28	45→47	44→45	49→50	40	225/270/338	114	302	13	11	30%	6%	71	-0.8	225/276/379	154	295	18	10	29%	6%	83	+0.1	189/227/390	200	221	26	5	29%	5%	65	-0.2
✕John Ryan Murphy 2019 · MLB	28	39→48	46→50	46→40	42	205/252/326	121	250	15	3	25%	6%	61	-1.5	207/258/365	158	282	21	5	33%	6%	74	-0.6	177/227/371	194	213	30	0	34%	6%	62	-0.6
✕Tres Barrera 2022 · MLB	27	44	42→45	45→40	47	214/285/312	98	269	9	4	24%	8%	71	-0.8	208/273/314	106	263	12	4	25%	7%	67	-1.1	182/246/269	86	232	11	1	26%	6%	44	-1.2
✕Martin Cervenka 2021 · AAA	28	43→47	44→45	49→40	40	214/263/323	109	292	12	6	30%	6%	65	-1.2	195/257/312	117	272	12	8	31%	7%	60	-1.6	137/207/246	108	180	13	2	31%	8%	26	-1.5

Jacob Amaya

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps