Tres Barrera — OGILVIE

Tres BarreraC Rochester Red Wings

Age 31 R/R 6'0" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION61 act + 189 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .278 / .316

PA189

HR4

K%25

BB%7

BABIP264

ISO105

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT40

Whiff%

5110.9%

xwOBA

160.269

POWER55

Barrel%

163.8

Avg EV

1080.9

EYE30

Chase%

3933.9%

SPEED45

Sprint

1024.1

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-3	$0.2M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	22	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	268	247	55	11	1	8	13	76	6	1	0	223	278	372	651	150	285	28	5	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	268	237	66	18	1	8	23	58	6	1	0	278	357	464	821	186	335	22	9	362	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+	2 teams	—	336	310	68	12	0	6	16	88	7	3	0	219	273	316	589	97	284	26	5	255	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+	2 teams	—	336	303	79	16	0	6	23	61	7	3	0	261	327	373	700	112	307	18	7	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	403	371	79	20	0	6	22	90	5	1	2	213	266	315	582	102	262	22	5	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	403	357	89	23	0	8	36	69	5	1	2	249	327	381	708	132	285	17	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	24	23	4	0	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	174	208	174	382		286	38	4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	24	23	4	0	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	174	208	174	382		286	38	4	180	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA	2 teams	—	308	269	56	7	1	5	28	76	6	0	0	208	297	297	594	89	266	25	9	263	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA	2 teams	—	308	260	58	8	1	5	36	65	6	0	0	223	330	319	649	96	273	21	12	298	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA	2 teams	—	259	236	51	8	1	5	17	61	3	0	2	216	277	322	599	106	269	24	7	267	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA	2 teams	—	259	227	54	8	1	7	22	57	3	0	2	238	309	374	683	137	287	22	8	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	245	224	39	6	0	6	18	60	3	1	1	174	245	281	526	107	209	24	7	239	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	245	216	46	7	0	7	26	49	3	1	1	213	306	343	649	130	244	20	11	297	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA	3 teams	—	309	274	50	5	0	5	21	87	8	1	0	182	261	255	516	73	243	28	7	230	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA	3 teams	—	309	267	53	6	0	9	28	71	8	1	0	199	294	322	616	124	232	23	9	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	31	AAA	WSH	—	61	51	12	1	0	1	8	13	0	1	0	235	339	314	653	78	289	21	13	295	84	-1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
YTD	31	AAA	WSH	—	61	47	12	1	0	1	12	11	0	1	0	255	407	340	747	85	306	18	20	341	119	+1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.4
ROS	31	AAA	WSH	10%	189	171	36	6	0	4	14	47	2	2	1	211	278	316	594	105	265	25	7	276	69	-7	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.2
ROS	31	MLB	WSH	10%	19	18	4	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	222	263	278	541	56	265	26	5	267	62	-1	+0	-0	+0	+1	0.0
FULL	31	AAA	WSH	—	80	69	16	2	0	1	9	18	0	1	0	232	321	304	625	72	294	22	11	288	79	-2	+0	-0	+1	+2	0.2
TOT	31	AAA	WSH	—	250	222	48	7	0	5	22	60	2	3	1	216	293	315	608	99	270	24	9	280	73	-8	+0	-0	+4	+7	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	32	MLB	WSH	27%	282	256	55	9	1	6	21	71	3	3	1	215	282	328	610	113	267	25	7	276	69	-10	+0	-4	+5	+8	-0.1
2028	33	MLB	WSH	37%	246	223	48	7	1	6	18	63	3	2	0	215	283	336	619	121	265	26	7	273	67	-9	+0	-5	+4	+7	-0.2
2029	34	MLB	WSH	33%	200	181	38	6	1	4	15	52	2	1	0	210	278	320	598	110	261	26	8	267	63	-8	+0	-5	+4	+6	-0.4
2027	32	MLB	WSH	27%	77	70	15	2	0	2	6	19	1	1	0	214	286	329	614	114	267	25	8	267	63	-3	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	33	MLB	WSH	37%	92	84	18	3	0	2	7	23	1	1	0	214	283	321	604	107	265	25	8	265	61	-4	+0	-2	+2	+3	-0.1
2029	34	MLB	WSH	33%	66	60	12	2	0	1	5	17	1	0	0	200	273	283	556	83	261	26	8	259	56	-3	+0	-2	+1	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	414	373	82	12	1	7	33	102	7	2	0	220	295	314	609	94	284	25	8	276	69	-14	+0	-1	+15	+12	1.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	129	19	2	11	52	160	11	3	0	220	296	316	612	96	284	25	8	276	69	-23	+1	-2	+23	+18	1.8
Career	—			—	3069	2785	579	97	6	61	204	780	48	15	7	208	274	313	586	105	264	25	7	258	56	-154	+0	-12	+55	+87	-2.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	123	21	1	13	43	165	10	3	1	208	274	314	587	105	264	25	7	258	56	-33	+0	-3	+12	+18	-0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	22	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	268	237	66	18	1	8	23	58	6	1	0	278	357	464	821	186	335	22	9	362	135	+11	+0	—	—	+8	1.9
2018	23	A+	Potomac Nationals	—	288	259	68	14	0	6	22	53	6	3	0	263	334	386	721	124	310	18	8	325	107	+2	+1	—	—	+8	1.1
2018	23	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	48	44	11	2	0	0	1	8	1	0	0	250	283	295	578	45	289	17	2	253	52	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2019	24	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	403	357	89	23	0	8	36	69	5	1	2	249	327	381	708	132	285	17	9	316	100	+0	-1	—	—	+11	1.1
2020	25	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	24	23	4	0	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	174	208	174	382		286	38	4	180	-4	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2021	26	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	107	91	24	3	1	2	12	22	4	0	0	264	374	385	758	121	328	21	11	348	124	+3	+0	+4	+6	+3	1.5
2021	26	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	201	169	34	5	0	3	24	43	2	0	0	201	306	284	590	83	244	21	12	271	65	-8	+0	—	—	+6	-0.2
2022	27	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	53	50	9	1	0	0	2	16	0	0	0	180	212	200	412	20	265	30	4	187	1	-6	+0	-0	+5	+2	-0.0
2022	27	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	206	177	45	7	1	7	20	41	3	0	2	254	333	424	757	169	292	20	10	332	113	+3	-1	—	—	+6	0.8
2023	28	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	245	216	46	7	0	7	26	49	3	1	1	213	306	343	649	130	244	20	11	297	86	-4	-0	—	—	+7	0.3
2025	30	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	156	143	34	4	0	7	9	42	3	0	0	238	297	413	709	175	287	27	6	314	99	-0	+0	—	—	+4	0.4
2025	30	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	113	92	15	1	0	1	17	24	2	1	0	163	306	207	513	43	203	21	15	252	51	-6	+0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2025	30	INTL	Toros del Este	—	40	32	4	1	0	1	2	5	3	0	0	125	243	250	493	125	111	12	5	219	26	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	160	141	33	4	1	2	14	38	4	0	0	234	321	319	640	85	307	24	9	295	84	-3	+0	+3	+10	+5	1.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Gary Bennettlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,703 PA	8	1,703	20	6	239	301	327	+17	+6	2.6	2.6
	/162	664	8	2	239	301	327	+6.7	+2.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	420	8	2	220	292	324	+7	+2	0.5	0.5
	/162	664	12	3	220	292	324	+11.9	+3.0	0.8	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tres Barrera (OGILVIE)	31	40	55	45	30	216/293/315	99	270	5	3	24%	9%	73	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jett Bandy 2021 · MLB	31	39	49→50	44→45	37	207/267/349	142	269	18	6	30%	4%	70	-0.3	215/276/333	118	299	13	8	31%	6%	69	-0.4	175/246/242	68	254	8	0	32%	6%	34	-0.6
✕Francisco Peña 2021 · MLB	31	43→46	51→55	48→40	41	229/267/387	159	267	20	7	24%	5%	79	+0.3	210/260/392	182	238	26	6	25%	5%	79	+0.3	180/232/364	185	186	30	1	25%	4%	60	-0.8
✕Dusty Brown 2012 · MLB	30	42	47→45	42→30	44	215/272/352	137	271	14	5	26%	7%	72	-0.2	218/293/379	161	275	18	6	26%	9%	88	+0.9	197/307/365	169	234	18	0	24%	13%	90	+0.3
✕Austin Wynns 2022 · MLB	31	44→51	46→45	48→30	46	222/280/346	124	262	15	6	22%	6%	74	-0.1	240/303/354	114	301	12	5	23%	7%	85	+0.7	240/304/338	98	308	10	2	24%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Chad Moeller 2006 · MLB	31	43	47→50	42→30	46	221/278/357	136	260	15	3	22%	7%	76	+0.0	210/267/325	115	262	12	3	24%	6%	63	-0.8	206/258/306	100	258	8	0	23%	5%	51	-0.5
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2013 · AAA	31	42	45→50	47→40	43	214/267/329	116	260	13	8	23%	6%	64	-0.8	230/280/357	127	295	15	7	26%	6%	76	+0.1	228/279/343	115	298	13	3	27%	6%	68	-0.2
✕Dustin Garneau 2018 · MLB	30	38→37	49→50	44→45	44	201/262/348	147	241	17	4	25%	7%	67	-0.5	201/275/344	143	257	15	4	27%	7%	72	-0.2	171/262/347	177	214	22	1	31%	8%	67	-0.2
✕Humberto Sosa 2017 · AAA	31	46→49	44→50	47→45	42	228/274/332	103	287	13	5	25%	6%	66	-0.6	229/274/377	148	278	19	6	24%	5%	79	+0.3	232/276/427	195	261	26	1	23%	5%	92	+0.4
✕Aramis Garcia 2022 · MLB	29	40→42	47→55	44→45	37	207/255/336	129	285	16	4	33%	5%	61	-1.0	197/239/324	127	269	16	7	33%	4%	51	-1.7	176/253/325	149	241	21	5	36%	7%	57	-0.5
✕Carlos Rivero 2019 · AAA	31	42→52	47→50	44→45	41	215/257/344	129	265	15	5	26%	5%	63	-0.9	249/294/395	146	294	17	5	21%	6%	92	+1.2	258/303/406	147	299	18	0	20%	6%	97	+1.2
✕Sharlon Schoop 2018 · AAA	31	42→44	46→40	44→45	41	213/258/339	126	263	14	4	25%	5%	63	-0.9	221/280/349	128	290	14	7	28%	6%	74	-0.1	194/268/276	82	269	8	0	29%	7%	49	-0.4
✕Nick Green 2010 · MLB	31	44→47	47→50	39→45	41	223/274/357	134	280	15	5	26%	5%	74	-0.1	218/267/347	129	270	12	5	24%	5%	69	-0.4	218/265/354	136	267	13	3	23%	4%	66	-0.4
✕Seth Bynum 2012 · AAA	31	41→44	49→55	51→50	38	213/259/357	144	287	18	13	32%	5%	68	-0.5	205/257/329	124	302	14	10	35%	6%	59	-1.1	179/234/287	108	272	12	6	37%	6%	35	-1.9
✕Josh Phegley 2019 · MLB	31	44→47	46→60	44→40	45	219/281/356	137	266	12	4	23%	6%	77	+0.1	231/285/396	165	263	19	5	20%	6%	89	+1.0	239/286/414	175	261	22	0	18%	4%	93	+0.7
✕Brad Davis 2013 · MLB	30	43	42→50	50→45	42	212/261/319	107	278	9	7	27%	6%	58	-1.2	205/249/317	112	274	11	9	28%	5%	53	-1.5	170/201/270	100	223	10	4	29%	4%	19	-0.9
✕Devin Ivany 2012 · AAA	30	44→48	44→50	43→45	42	218/270/336	118	286	12	10	28%	6%	66	-0.6	219/266/334	115	276	11	9	24%	5%	64	-0.8	203/243/312	110	242	10	3	21%	4%	45	-0.6
✕Chad Wallach 2023 · MLB	31	36→46	48→50	49→40	41	192/259/328	136	266	17	4	34%	7%	61	-1.0	198/266/342	144	279	18	5	34%	8%	68	-0.5	186/257/330	144	259	20	2	35%	8%	58	-0.5
✕Chris Owings 2023 · MLB	31	38→48	47→50	50→55	44	198/265/333	135	266	15	12	31%	8%	64	-0.8	203/276/336	133	297	16	11	35%	8%	70	-0.3	193/272/319	126	285	16	11	36%	9%	60	-0.6
✕Guillermo Quiroz 2013 · AAA	31	45	48→50	42→50	41	228/280/372	145	293	16	3	28%	6%	81	+0.4	222/269/330	108	288	10	4	26%	5%	64	-0.8	205/244/302	97	274	9	1	28%	4%	43	-0.8
✕Omir Santos 2012 · MLB	31	44→43	41→45	47→30	40	219/250/313	95	257	10	4	20%	4%	52	-1.6	221/250/313	92	288	7	4	25%	3%	51	-1.7	225/247/307	82	297	5	0	25%	2%	46	-0.7