Tres Barrera

C Rochester Red Wings

Age 32 R/R 6'0" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 6.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	28	AAASTL	245	.213/.306/.343	7	1	40	—	.173/.241/.267
2025	30	AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs	309	.199/.294/.322	9	1	31	—	.163/.233/.228
2026	31	AAAWSH	61	.255/.407/.340	1	1	74	—	.235/.339/.314
2027PROJ10% MLB	32	MLBWSH	12	.212/.279/.324	0	0	71	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	33	MLBWSH	26	.207/.273/.313	0	0	66	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$0.9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021-2023

Barrel%16

xwOBA16

Avg EV10

Speed10

CompsJesus Alberto Vega (age 32) · David Matranga (age 32) · Robinson Cancel (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .279 / .324

PA12

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP270

ISO115

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT40

xAVG

100.214

POWER55

Barrel%

163.8

Avg EV

1080.9

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

1024.1

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2021

Service 6.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.0	$0.0M	-$0.9M
Totals		$0.9M		$0.0M	-$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	22	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	268	237	66	18	1	8	23	58	6	1	0	278	357	464	821	186	335	22	9	362	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+	Potomac Nationals	—	288	259	68	14	0	6	22	53	6	3	0	263	334	386	721	124	310	18	8	325	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	48	44	11	2	0	0	1	8	1	0	0	250	283	295	578	45	289	17	2	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	403	357	89	23	0	8	36	69	5	1	2	249	327	381	708	132	285	17	9	316	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	24	23	4	0	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	174	208	174	382		286	38	4	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	107	91	24	3	1	2	12	22	4	0	0	264	374	385	758	121	328	21	11	348	115	+2	+0	+4	+6	+2	1.3
2021	26	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	201	169	34	5	0	3	24	43	2	0	0	201	306	284	590	83	244	21	12	271	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	53	50	9	1	0	0	2	16	0	0	0	180	212	200	412	20	265	30	4	187	13	-6	+0	-0	+5	+1	-0.0
2022	27	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	206	177	45	7	1	7	20	41	3	0	2	254	333	424	757	169	292	20	10	332	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	245	216	46	7	0	7	26	49	3	1	1	213	306	343	649	130	244	20	11	297	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	156	143	34	4	0	7	9	42	3	0	0	238	297	413	709	175	287	27	6	314	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	113	92	15	1	0	1	17	24	2	1	0	163	306	207	513	43	203	21	15	252	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	INTL	Toros del Este	—	40	32	4	1	0	1	2	5	3	0	0	125	243	250	493	125	111	12	5	219	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	61	47	12	1	0	1	12	11	0	1	0	255	407	340	747	85	306	18	20	341	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	160	141	33	4	1	2	14	38	4	0	0	234	321	319	640	85	307	24	9	295	86	-3	+0	+3	+10	+3	1.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	22	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	268	246	54	12	1	7	14	77	6	1	0	220	278	362	640	142	277	29	5	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Potomac Nationals	—	288	267	58	11	0	5	14	75	6	3	0	217	272	315	586	97	277	26	5	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	403	370	79	19	0	6	23	85	5	1	2	214	269	314	582	100	254	21	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	107	93	24	3	1	2	10	22	4	0	0	258	355	376	731	118	328	21	9	338	115	+2	+0	+4	+6	+2	1.3
2021	26	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	201	178	31	4	0	2	16	53	2	0	0	174	250	230	480	56	219	26	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	53	50	9	1	0	0	2	16	0	0	0	180	212	200	412	20	265	30	4	187	13	-6	+0	-0	+5	+1	-0.0
2022	27	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	206	187	42	7	1	5	14	47	3	0	2	225	289	353	642	128	263	23	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	245	225	39	6	0	5	17	60	3	1	1	173	241	267	507	93	210	24	7	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	156	146	27	3	0	3	6	48	3	0	0	185	232	267	499	82	257	31	4	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	113	98	13	1	0	1	11	29	2	1	0	133	234	173	408	41	168	26	10	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	61	51	12	1	0	1	8	13	0	1	0	235	339	314	653	78	266	21	13	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	268	246	54	12	1	7	14	77	6	1	0	220	278	362	640	142	287	29	5	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A RAW	Hagerstown Suns	—	268	237	66	18	1	8	23	58	6	1	0	278	357	464	821	186	335	22	9	362	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	336	310	67	12	0	6	16	88	7	3	0	216	270	313	583	97	280	26	5	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	336	303	79	16	0	6	23	61	7	3	0	261	327	373	700	112	307	18	7	315	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	403	370	79	19	0	6	23	85	5	1	2	214	269	314	582	100	258	21	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	—	403	357	89	23	0	8	36	69	5	1	2	249	327	381	708	132	285	17	9	316	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	INTL MLE	Leones del Escogido	—	24	23	4	0	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	174	208	174	382		286	38	4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	INTL RAW	Leones del Escogido	—	24	23	4	0	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	174	208	174	382		286	38	4	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	308	271	55	7	1	4	26	75	6	0	0	203	287	280	568	77	260	24	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	308	260	58	8	1	5	36	65	6	0	0	223	330	319	649	96	273	21	12	298	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	259	237	51	8	1	5	16	63	3	0	2	215	273	321	594	105	271	24	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	259	227	54	8	1	7	22	57	3	0	2	238	309	374	683	137	287	22	8	303	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	245	225	39	6	0	5	17	60	3	1	1	173	241	267	507	93	212	24	7	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	—	245	216	46	7	0	7	26	49	3	1	1	213	306	343	649	130	244	20	11	297	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	309	276	48	5	0	5	19	88	8	1	0	174	248	246	494	72	231	28	6	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	309	267	53	6	0	9	28	71	8	1	0	199	294	322	616	124	232	23	9	279	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	61	51	12	1	0	1	8	13	0	1	0	235	339	314	653	78	289	21	13	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	—	61	47	12	1	0	1	12	11	0	1	0	255	407	340	747	85	306	18	20	341	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	268	246	54	12	1	7	14	77	6	1	0	220	278	362	640	142	277	29	5	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	336	310	67	12	0	6	16	88	7	3	0	216	270	313	583	97	277	26	5	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	403	372	79	19	0	6	23	85	5	1	2	212	269	312	581	99	254	21	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	308	273	55	7	1	4	26	75	6	0	0	201	287	278	566	77	257	24	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	259	238	51	8	1	5	16	63	3	0	2	214	273	319	593	105	263	24	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	245	223	39	6	0	5	17	60	3	1	1	175	241	269	510	94	210	24	7	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	309	279	48	5	0	5	19	88	8	1	0	172	248	244	491	72	220	28	6	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	61	53	12	1	0	1	8	13	0	1	0	226	339	302	641	75	266	21	13	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	30	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	309	279	48	5	0	5	19	88	8	1	0	172	248	244	491	72	220	28	6	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	61	53	12	1	0	1	8	13	0	1	0	226	339	302	641	75	266	21	13	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	WSH	10%	200	181	39	7	1	4	15	52	2	3	1	212	279	325	604	113	270	26	8	273	71	-7	+0	-0	+4	+4	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	WSH	10%	12	11	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	212	279	324	603	112	270	25	8	272	71	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	WSH	27%	96	88	18	3	0	2	7	25	1	1	0	207	273	315	588	107	266	26	7	266	66	-4	+0	-4	+2	+2	-0.4
2028	33	MLB CTX	WSH	27%	26	24	4	1	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	207	273	313	586	106	266	27	8	266	66	-1	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	186	165	37	5	1	2	16	45	4	0	0	224	308	303	611	79	297	24	9	291	55	-4	+0	+2	+11	+4	1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	128	17	3	7	56	157	14	0	0	222	306	298	604	76	293	24	9	291	55	-13	+0	+7	+37	+14	4.6
Career	—	MLE		—	2433	2210	451	77	3	44	156	615	40	11	5	204	269	301	570	97	259	25	6	250	55	-11	+1	-1	+14	+8	1.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	121	21	1	12	42	164	11	3	1	205	271	305	576	100	260	25	6	250	55	-19	+1	-2	+24	+14	1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 61 PAwOBA .339 → .277 (−61)K% 18.0% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.03%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	21.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.67%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.952	12.92%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.78%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×0.952	24.59%
Doubles /BIP	2.78%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.952	2.19%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.78%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.952	1.85%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .339 → .277; ISO .085 → .066; BABIP .306 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 156 PAwOBA .305 → .229 (−76)K% 26.9% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.92%	÷1.057	×1.200	—	—	30.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.77%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×0.962	3.72%
HBP% /PA	1.92%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.74%
Singles /BIP	22.77%	÷0.956	×0.930	×1.006	×0.962	21.44%
Doubles /BIP	3.96%	÷0.940	×0.830	×1.006	×0.962	3.38%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.006	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.93%	÷1.380	×0.700	—	×0.962	3.38%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 91, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 111, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .305 → .229; ISO .175 → .094; BABIP .287 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 113 PAwOBA .251 → .194 (−57)K% 21.2% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.24%	÷1.010	×1.220	—	—	25.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.04%	÷0.988	×0.680	—	×0.940	9.73%
HBP% /PA	1.77%	—	×0.840	—	×0.940	1.40%
Singles /BIP	19.12%	÷1.045	×0.920	×0.998	×0.940	15.78%
Doubles /BIP	1.47%	÷0.976	×0.910	×0.998	×0.940	1.29%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.880	×0.998	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.47%	÷0.922	×0.800	—	×0.940	1.20%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 109, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 24.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .251 → .194; ISO .043 → .038; BABIP .203 → .168. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 245 PAwOBA .290 → .228 (−62)K% 20.0% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷0.990	×1.200	—	—	24.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.61%	÷1.010	×0.690	—	×0.982	7.12%
HBP% /PA	1.22%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.13%
Singles /BIP	19.16%	÷1.040	×0.930	×1.001	×0.982	16.84%
Doubles /BIP	4.19%	÷0.969	×0.830	×1.001	×0.982	3.53%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.001	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.19%	÷0.955	×0.700	—	×0.982	3.02%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .290 → .228; ISO .130 → .096; BABIP .244 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAARochester Red Wings · 206 PAwOBA .325 → .275 (−50)K% 19.9% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.90%	÷1.049	×1.200	—	—	22.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.71%	÷0.973	×0.690	—	×0.992	6.83%
HBP% /PA	1.46%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.36%
Singles /BIP	22.06%	÷1.011	×0.930	×1.006	×0.992	20.26%
Doubles /BIP	5.15%	÷0.930	×0.830	×1.006	×0.992	4.59%
Triples /BIP	0.74%	÷0.913	×0.970	×1.006	×0.992	0.78%
Home runs /BIP	5.15%	÷1.084	×0.700	—	×0.992	3.30%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 83, K 110, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .325 → .275; ISO .169 → .129; BABIP .292 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAARochester Red Wings · 201 PAwOBA .270 → .224 (−46)K% 21.4% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.39%	÷0.979	×1.200	—	—	26.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.94%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×1.003	8.15%
HBP% /PA	1.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.94%
Singles /BIP	20.63%	÷0.994	×0.930	×0.979	×1.003	18.95%
Doubles /BIP	3.97%	÷1.005	×0.830	×0.979	×1.003	3.22%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.979	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.38%	÷0.968	×0.700	—	×1.003	1.73%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 99, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .270 → .224; ISO .083 → .065; BABIP .244 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAHarrisburg Senators · 403 PAwOBA .310 → .257 (−53)K% 17.1% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.12%	÷0.996	×1.220	—	—	20.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.68%	÷1.054	×0.700	—	×0.998	5.76%
HBP% /PA	1.24%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	1.05%
Singles /BIP	20.14%	÷0.991	×0.970	×0.950	×0.998	18.69%
Doubles /BIP	7.99%	÷0.985	×0.860	×0.950	×0.998	6.61%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.950	×0.950	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.78%	÷1.111	×0.780	—	×0.998	1.95%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .310 → .257; ISO .132 → .101; BABIP .285 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Potomac Nationals · 288 PAwOBA .317 → .253 (−64)K% 18.4% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.40%	÷0.998	×1.420	—	—	26.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.64%	÷1.013	×0.630	—	×0.988	4.69%
HBP% /PA	2.08%	—	×0.860	—	×0.988	1.77%
Singles /BIP	23.30%	÷0.992	×0.940	×0.991	×0.988	21.61%
Doubles /BIP	6.80%	÷1.020	×0.830	×0.991	×0.988	5.42%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.800	×0.991	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.91%	÷1.017	×0.900	—	×0.988	2.55%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 98, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .317 → .253; ISO .124 → .098; BABIP .310 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tres Barrera (OGILVIE)	32	40	55	45	30	210/276/322	112	270	3	2	26%	7%	71	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2014 · AAA	32	43	47→45	48→40	42	220/274/352	132	275	16	8	26%	6%	76	-0.4	212/260/304	92	295	9	5	30%	5%	59	-1.7	191/237/262	72	277	6	1	32%	5%	38	-1.0
✕David Matranga 2009 · AAA	32	41	46→45	49→50	42	209/273/332	123	275	14	10	29%	6%	72	-0.7	219/299/343	124	297	12	9	28%	9%	84	+0.1	200/298/309	110	273	11	5	28%	10%	76	-0.2
✕Robinson Cancel 2008 · AAA	32	44	44→45	47→50	42	220/261/338	118	263	12	9	22%	5%	68	-1.0	223/263/321	98	256	8	12	16%	5%	63	-1.3	237/283/323	86	279	7	15	17%	6%	69	-0.5
✕Guillermo Quiroz 2014 · MLB	32	43	46→45	47→50	43	217/275/348	131	274	14	4	26%	6%	76	-0.4	211/252/309	98	275	9	4	26%	4%	57	-1.8	199/229/296	97	264	10	0	29%	3%	42	-1.3
✕Edwin Diaz 2007 · AAA	32	44	47→45	44→40	43	226/279/361	135	267	15	9	22%	5%	80	-0.2	241/278/366	125	275	13	8	17%	4%	80	-0.1	254/278/370	115	283	11	2	14%	2%	77	-0.1
✕Chris Owings 2024 · MLB	32	36→46	45→50	45→55	42	187/254/308	121	268	13	9	34%	8%	59	-1.7	212/286/336	124	301	14	13	32%	8%	77	-0.3	207/292/315	108	291	13	18	31%	9%	72	-0.4
✕Chad Wallach 2024 · MLB	32	38→48	48→50	46→40	43	200/265/336	136	268	17	5	31%	7%	70	-0.9	201/264/329	128	278	15	5	32%	7%	67	-1.1	183/248/298	114	255	14	2	32%	6%	52	-0.9
✕Jonathan Aceves 2010 · AAA	32	44	47→50	43→30	42	224/270/360	136	270	15	5	24%	5%	76	-0.4	214/260/338	124	269	14	5	25%	6%	68	-1.0	228/295/332	104	273	11	1	20%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Dustin Garneau 2021 · MLB	33	40→38	49→50	45	46	208/290/361	153	270	17	5	29%	8%	85	+0.2	192/269/357	165	248	20	6	31%	7%	76	-0.4	145/226/306	160	173	21	1	31%	7%	48	-0.8
✕Mario Lisson 2016 · AAA	32	46→49	46→50	48→55	43	229/286/350	120	286	15	9	25%	6%	80	-0.2	213/281/336	123	284	13	8	28%	8%	75	-0.5	195/272/320	125	261	14	6	29%	8%	66	-0.7
✕Paul Hoover 2008 · AAA	32	46	44→45	45	42	225/274/344	119	288	10	6	25%	6%	74	-0.6	213/263/309	96	292	8	4	28%	6%	61	-1.5	202/254/280	78	281	5	1	28%	6%	49	-1.1
✕Chad Moeller 2008 · MLB	33	40	45→50	41→30	42	204/259/322	118	253	14	4	25%	6%	63	-1.3	210/262/314	104	261	9	4	22%	5%	63	-1.4	200/250/291	90	248	5	0	21%	5%	52	-0.6
✕Brian O'Keefe 2024 · MLB	31	39→42	50	41→40	43	205/263/360	156	263	18	4	29%	7%	74	-0.5	196/254/337	141	249	17	5	28%	7%	65	-1.2	174/231/302	128	216	17	3	28%	7%	46	-0.9
✕Jett Bandy 2021 · MLB	31	39	49→50	44→45	38	208/269/350	142	268	18	6	30%	5%	74	-0.5	213/278/331	118	299	13	8	31%	6%	73	-0.6	163/234/229	66	238	8	0	33%	5%	34	-0.7
✕Aramis Garcia 2024 · MLB	31	38→42	49→50	47→45	35	203/245/340	137	266	18	7	31%	4%	63	-1.4	186/247/317	131	264	17	7	35%	6%	59	-1.7	165/235/287	122	232	17	5	36%	7%	46	-1.1
✕Lorenzo Quintana 2021 · AAA	32	42	52→50	45	38	224/267/387	163	268	20	9	25%	4%	82	-0.0	228/275/367	139	283	15	5	25%	5%	80	-0.2	222/269/358	136	272	15	2	24%	4%	73	-0.3
✕Francisco Cordoba 2016 · AAA	32	46→52	43→45	43→40	42	228/277/330	103	281	12	3	24%	5%	72	-0.7	209/259/293	84	257	8	5	21%	5%	57	-1.8	194/247/293	99	225	12	1	20%	5%	51	-1.3
✕Dusty Wathan 2007 · AAA	33	44	46→45	45→40	44	222/285/344	123	259	15	5	21%	5%	79	-0.2	229/290/320	91	278	7	8	19%	5%	74	-0.5	237/297/291	53	290	0	6	17%	4%	68	-0.5
✕Mike DiFelice 2002 · MLB	33	43	45→50	45→30	43	217/268/339	122	262	12	5	22%	6%	70	-0.8	228/284/358	130	270	12	5	19%	6%	81	-0.1	214/272/350	136	253	14	1	21%	6%	74	-0.2
✕Israel Nunez 2019 · AAA	33	47	45→40	49→40	45	232/278/351	119	271	12	9	20%	6%	76	-0.4	235/277/333	98	279	10	8	19%	4%	72	-0.7	248/274/300	52	290	6	0	16%	1%	60	-0.5