Jonathan Ornelas

Jonathan OrnelasSS Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 26 R/R 6'1" / 196 lbs AAA HR +8% Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION280 act + 186 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†77

AVG/OBP/SLG.245 / .298 / .373

PA186

HR4

SB5

K%28

BB%6

BABIP329

ISO128

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT35

Whiff%

3412.8%

xwOBA

100.194

POWER40

Avg EV

1079.0

Bat Spd

5972.3

EYE55

Chase%

6528.8%

SPEED50

Sprint

3026.5

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.1M
2027	Arb-2	$0.6M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.6M
2028	Arb-3	$1M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.1M
2029	Arb-4	$1M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	AZL Rangers	—	203	182	39	7	3	2	15	59	2	15	5	214	281	319	600	104	296	29	7	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK	AZL Rangers	—	203	172	52	10	4	3	25	41	2	15	5	302	397	459	856	157	371	20	12	375	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	472	425	78	15	3	3	30	139	9	13	4	184	252	254	506	71	259	29	6	229	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	472	413	106	24	3	6	42	103	9	13	4	257	338	373	711	116	322	22	9	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	405	381	78	12	4	8	16	120	6	9	5	205	248	320	568	115	277	30	4	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	405	376	98	18	4	8	21	87	6	9	5	261	310	394	704	133	320	21	5	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	580	542	146	16	2	15	28	153	6	14	6	269	312	389	702	120	348	26	5	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	580	525	157	20	2	14	45	121	6	14	6	299	361	425	786	126	365	21	8	351	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	517	455	93	13	2	5	53	168	6	15	1	204	296	275	570	70	310	32	10	262	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	517	434	110	18	2	8	74	121	6	15	1	253	370	359	729	106	332	23	14	335	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	3 teams	—	449	417	95	12	2	3	23	123	6	10	2	228	278	288	566	60	315	27	5	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	3 teams	—	449	405	99	14	3	3	35	113	6	10	2	244	314	316	630	72	331	25	8	288	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	454	418	77	4	4	9	26	145	6	9	5	184	242	278	520	93	254	32	6	232	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	454	393	77	6	3	10	51	115	6	9	5	196	298	303	601	107	246	25	11	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	AAA	NYY	—	280	260	69	11	3	7	15	76	4	9	4	265	315	412	727	146	350	27	5	313	98	-1	+0	+0	+1	+8	0.9
YTD	26	AAA	NYY	—	280	254	76	13	3	9	21	63	4	9	4	299	362	480	842	181	368	22	8	371	142	+13	+0	+0	+1	+8	2.3
ROS	26	AAA	NYY	10%	186	171	42	6	2	4	11	53	2	5	2	245	298	373	671	128	314	28	6	286	77	-5	+0	-0	+1	+5	0.1
ROS	26	MLB	NYY	10%	19	18	4	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	222	263	278	541	56	316	26	5	278	71	-1	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.0
FULL	26	AAA	NYY	—	299	278	73	12	3	7	16	81	4	9	4	263	312	403	715	140	347	27	5	311	96	-1	+0	-0	+1	+8	0.9
TOT	26	AAA	NYY	—	466	431	111	17	5	11	26	129	6	14	6	257	308	396	705	139	342	28	6	302	89	-6	+0	-0	+2	+13	0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	NYY	31%	395	362	85	12	3	8	25	110	5	9	3	235	293	351	644	116	309	28	6	288	78	-10	+1	-1	+1	+11	0.3
2028	28	MLB	NYY	42%	403	369	86	12	3	9	26	111	5	9	3	233	292	355	648	122	308	28	6	290	80	-9	+1	-2	+1	+11	0.3
2029	29	MLB	NYY	46%	398	363	84	12	3	8	27	110	5	8	3	231	294	347	641	116	307	28	7	290	80	-9	+0	-2	+1	+11	0.2
2027	27	MLB	NYY	31%	123	113	27	4	1	3	8	34	1	3	1	239	295	372	667	133	311	28	7	281	73	-4	+0	-0	+0	+3	0.0
2028	28	MLB	NYY	42%	170	155	36	5	1	4	11	47	2	4	1	232	292	355	647	123	309	28	6	283	75	-5	+0	-1	+1	+5	0.0
2029	29	MLB	NYY	46%	183	167	39	6	1	4	12	50	2	4	1	234	293	353	646	120	308	27	7	283	75	-5	+0	-1	+1	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	535	490	114	18	3	11	34	149	5	11	3	233	289	349	638	116	309	28	6	279	72	-17	+1	-3	+3	+15	-0.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	139	22	4	13	41	181	6	13	4	234	290	350	639	116	311	28	6	279	72	-21	+1	-3	+4	+18	-0.1
Career	—			—	4462	4085	903	121	31	74	280	1291	58	116	39	221	281	320	601	99	302	29	6	267	63	-187	+8	-7	+19	+126	-4.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	133	18	5	11	41	188	8	17	6	224	283	326	609	103	305	29	6	267	63	-27	+1	-1	+3	+18	-0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	AZL Rangers	—	203	172	52	10	4	3	25	41	2	15	5	302	397	459	856	157	371	20	12	375	145	+10	+1	—	—	+6	1.7
2019	19	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	472	413	106	24	3	6	42	103	9	13	4	257	338	373	711	116	322	22	9	318	102	+1	+1	—	—	+13	1.6
2021	21	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	405	376	98	18	4	8	21	87	6	9	5	261	310	394	704	133	320	21	5	313	98	-1	-0	—	—	+11	1.0
2022	22	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	580	525	157	20	2	14	45	121	6	14	6	299	361	425	786	126	365	21	8	351	126	+17	+0	—	—	+16	3.5
2023	23	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	517	434	110	18	2	8	74	121	6	15	1	253	370	359	729	106	332	23	14	335	115	+9	+3	—	—	+15	2.6
2024	24	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	40	37	8	2	0	0	2	13	0	0	0	216	256	270	527	54	333	32	5	235	38	-3	+0	-0	+2	+1	-0.1
2024	24	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	368	331	83	10	3	3	30	87	5	9	2	251	322	326	649	76	331	24	8	297	85	-6	+1	—	—	+10	0.5
2024	24	INTL	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	41	37	8	2	0	0	3	13	1	1	0	216	293	270	563	54	333	32	7	264	60	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2025	25	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	454	393	77	6	3	10	51	115	6	9	5	196	298	303	601	107	246	25	11	277	70	-15	-0	—	—	+13	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	40	37	8	2	0	0	2	13	0	0	0	216	256	270	527	54	333	32	5	235	38	-3	+0	-0	+2	+1	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Yuniesky Betancourtlast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,278 PA	9	4,278	80	30	261	285	388	+41	-20	6.1	7.2
	/162	664	12	5	261	285	388	+6.4	-3.1	1.0	pk7: 8
#3Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#4Angel Berroalast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,794 PA	8	2,794	46	50	259	303	375	+27	-6	6.8	7.1
	/162	664	11	12	259	303	375	+6.5	-1.4	1.6	pk7: 7
#5Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#6Jose Castillolast yr '08 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,059 PA	5	2,059	39	13	254	296	379	+7	-14	1.9	1.9
	/162	664	13	4	254	296	379	+2.4	-4.5	0.6	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	500	10	11	233	290	351	+5	-0	0.7	0.7
	/162	664	14	14	233	290	351	+6.9	-0.2	1.0	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jonathan Ornelas (OGILVIE)	26	35	40	50	55	257/308/396	139	342	11	14	28%	6%	89	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeremy Farrell 2013 · AAA	26	43→36	40→45	44→45	41	208/277/300	92	294	8	6	30%	6%	61	-1.0	198/259/295	97	296	7	4	34%	5%	52	-1.6	191/248/287	96	292	7	2	35%	5%	42	-1.2
✕Jason Romano 2005 · MLB	26	42	44→45	53→50	44	212/267/323	112	268	12	15	26%	7%	62	-0.9	232/282/350	118	283	11	9	21%	6%	75	-0.0	255/296/373	118	310	9	9	20%	5%	84	+0.3
✕Óscar Hernández 2019 · AAA	26	36	42→50	49→40	40	186/236/286	100	240	11	5	28%	5%	40	-2.4	202/255/323	121	265	12	6	28%	6%	57	-1.2	172/224/308	135	216	15	0	28%	5%	39	-0.8
✕Caleb Hamilton 2021 · AAA	26	39	42→45	45	42	196/255/296	101	271	9	9	30%	7%	50	-1.7	183/269/319	136	279	17	6	38%	10%	63	-0.8	145/239/282	137	205	21	3	40%	10%	39	-0.8
✕Coco Montes 2023 · AAA	26	39→43	47→50	51→50	41	200/265/338	138	281	14	10	33%	7%	66	-0.6	219/284/347	128	316	13	10	33%	8%	76	+0.0	220/284/337	117	317	11	9	32%	7%	71	-0.2
✕Nolan Fontana 2018 · MLB	27	41→43	41→40	48→50	49	197/278/296	99	272	8	12	29%	10%	60	-1.0	196/286/316	120	275	11	11	30%	11%	69	-0.4	153/267/269	116	216	9	6	31%	12%	49	-0.5
✕Ryan Cordell 2019 · MLB	27	38→42	45→50	51→50	38	198/241/322	124	262	13	14	30%	5%	51	-1.7	204/259/338	134	290	16	12	34%	6%	63	-0.8	186/251/334	148	269	20	12	37%	7%	57	-0.6
✕Tyler Goeddel 2019 · MLB	26	42→50	40→45	51→55	44	205/267/295	91	267	7	12	25%	6%	55	-1.4	199/260/288	89	303	7	8	34%	6%	50	-1.8	161/226/217	56	280	2	2	40%	6%	16	-1.5
✕Yusniel Díaz 2023 · AAA	26	42→50	43→45	46→50	41	209/266/311	102	293	12	12	32%	7%	59	-1.1	234/305/382	148	295	17	12	25%	9%	94	+1.3	246/322/413	168	301	19	8	24%	10%	105	+1.4
✕Willie MacIver 2023 · AAA	26	36→33	48→45	50→55	39	191/255/325	133	271	17	14	35%	6%	59	-1.1	215/291/341	126	313	13	16	33%	8%	78	+0.2	225/305/348	123	321	11	18	31%	8%	83	+0.3
✕Brian Serven 2021 · AA	26	36	43→45	43→30	39	187/243/298	110	248	11	5	29%	5%	46	-2.0	186/244/314	128	236	16	4	28%	6%	51	-1.7	224/307/333	109	327	9	1	31%	9%	79	+0.1
✕Bryan Holaday 2013 · AAA	25	41	40→45	50→40	42	203/257/289	87	262	7	6	25%	6%	49	-1.8	221/265/314	93	274	8	4	22%	4%	58	-1.2	223/289/353	130	256	14	2	19%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Chase Pinder 2022 · AA	26	39	43→45	44→45	46	197/280/304	107	271	12	5	30%	8%	64	-0.8	229/320/373	144	297	15	10	26%	11%	98	+1.6	224/323/376	152	290	16	11	26%	12%	98	+0.8
✕Gerardo Bustamante 2011 · AAA	25	41	40→45	50	44	201/272/294	93	265	8	9	26%	7%	57	-1.2	222/267/338	116	273	14	13	24%	5%	66	-0.6	226/262/325	99	269	14	12	22%	4%	56	-0.4
✕Arturo Rodriguez 2019 · AAA	27	45→42	43→45	47→30	42	222/265/326	104	274	11	6	24%	6%	62	-0.9	262/297/411	149	294	20	6	18%	4%	98	+1.6	288/318/439	151	312	24	2	16%	3%	109	+1.3
✕JaCoby Jones 2018 · MLB	26	43→46	44→50	52→50	37	209/260/325	116	311	11	16	35%	6%	59	-1.1	228/289/391	163	313	16	14	31%	6%	89	+1.0	234/301/421	187	314	19	13	30%	6%	100	+0.9
✕Alex De Goti 2022 · AAA	27	43→47	43→45	51→50	44	212/275/327	115	284	10	8	28%	7%	66	-0.6	204/281/300	96	277	8	10	27%	9%	63	-0.9	195/278/275	80	264	6	10	26%	9%	52	-0.9
✕Gift Ngoepe 2016 · AAA	26	44→40	42→45	45→50	38	209/263/317	108	312	9	11	35%	6%	59	-1.1	202/261/316	114	320	11	7	38%	7%	58	-1.2	171/250/283	112	296	11	5	43%	9%	43	-0.9
✕Nick Meyer 2022 · AAA	25	42	38→40	47→50	43	204/265/279	75	266	7	12	25%	6%	50	-1.7	216/287/315	99	282	11	15	26%	8%	69	-0.4	204/282/295	91	265	12	18	26%	9%	58	-0.5
✕Steve Holm 2006 · AA	26	42	42→50	47→40	43	209/268/311	102	266	11	6	25%	6%	59	-1.1	226/294/375	149	273	18	4	24%	7%	88	+0.9	229/306/383	154	269	18	2	22%	8%	91	+0.5