Jonathan Ornelas

3B Nashville Sounds

Age 27 R/R 6'1" / 196 lbs AAA HR +10%K +6% Svc 0.199 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAAROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	24	AAA/INTL2 orgs	409	.247/.319/.321	3	10	69	—	.246/.298/.308
2024	24	MLBTEX	40	.216/.256/.270	0	0	46	-0.1
2025	25	AAAATL	454	.196/.298/.303	10	9	44	—	.181/.247/.258
2026	26	AAAMIL	365	.296/.370/.485	13	12	99	—	.264/.323/.405
2026	26	MLBMIL	22	.190/.227/.190	0	0	20	-0.0
2027PROJ10% MLB	27	MLBMIL	16	.223/.283/.328	0	0	74	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	28	MLBMIL	89	.222/.283/.328	2	2	73	-0.1
2029PROJ40% MLB	29	MLBMIL	112	.221/.282/.326	2	2	73	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.199First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$0.2M2031Ext$0.8M2032Ext$1M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Max EV97

Speed57

Chase%53

K%47

BB%33

Z-Con%32

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsWilliam Simoneit (age 27) · Maverick Handley (age 26) · Aaron Schunk (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.223 / .283 / .328

PA16

HR0

K%31

BB%6

BABIP298

ISO106

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT35

xAVG

100.185

POWER40

Avg EV

8991.7

Bat Spd

5972.3

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

3026.5

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 0.199 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	18	ROK	AZL Rangers	—	203	172	52	10	4	3	25	41	2	15	5	302	397	459	856	157	371	20	12	375	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	472	413	106	24	3	6	42	103	9	13	4	257	338	373	711	116	322	22	9	318	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	405	376	98	18	4	8	21	87	6	9	5	261	310	394	704	133	320	21	5	313	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	580	525	157	20	2	14	45	121	6	14	6	299	361	425	786	126	365	21	8	351	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	517	434	110	18	2	8	74	121	6	15	1	253	370	359	729	106	332	23	14	335	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	40	37	8	2	0	0	2	13	0	0	0	216	256	270	527	54	333	32	5	235	46	-3	+0	-0	+2	+1	-0.1
2024	24	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	368	331	83	10	3	3	30	87	5	9	2	251	322	326	649	76	331	24	8	297	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	INTL	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	41	37	8	2	0	0	3	13	1	1	0	216	293	270	563	54	333	32	7	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	454	393	77	6	3	10	51	115	6	9	5	196	298	303	601	107	246	25	11	277	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	22	21	4	0	0	0	1	11	0	0	0	190	227	190	418		400	50	5	196	20	-2	+0	+0	+1	+0	-0.0
2026	26	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	365	324	96	16	3	13	32	84	6	12	4	296	370	485	855	188	366	23	9	376	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	62	58	12	2	0	0	3	24	0	0	0	207	246	241	487	34	353	39	5	221	36	-5	+0	-0	+3	+1	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	—	203	181	40	7	3	2	16	59	2	15	5	221	291	326	617	105	295	29	8	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	472	425	86	17	3	4	30	138	9	13	4	202	269	285	554	82	273	29	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	405	381	81	13	3	7	16	119	6	9	5	213	256	318	573	105	287	29	4	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	580	540	149	17	2	13	30	146	6	14	6	276	321	387	708	111	352	25	5	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	517	454	106	15	2	6	54	150	6	15	1	233	323	315	638	81	332	29	10	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	40	37	8	2	0	0	2	13	0	0	0	216	256	270	527	54	333	32	5	236	46	-3	+0	-0	+2	+1	-0.1
2024	24	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	368	341	84	9	3	2	20	98	5	9	2	246	298	308	606	62	335	27	5	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	454	414	75	5	3	7	30	141	6	9	5	181	247	258	505	77	249	31	7	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	22	21	4	0	0	0	1	11	0	0	0	190	227	190	418		400	50	5	197	20	-2	+0	+0	+1	+0	-0.0
2026	26	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	365	333	88	14	3	9	23	101	6	12	4	264	323	405	729	141	348	28	6	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	—	203	181	40	7	3	2	16	59	2	15	5	221	291	326	617	105	306	29	8	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	—	203	172	52	10	4	3	25	41	2	15	5	302	397	459	856	157	371	20	12	375	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	472	425	86	17	3	4	30	138	9	13	4	202	269	285	554	82	283	29	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	—	472	413	106	24	3	6	42	103	9	13	4	257	338	373	711	116	322	22	9	318	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	405	381	81	13	3	7	16	119	6	9	5	213	256	318	573	105	290	29	4	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	—	405	376	98	18	4	8	21	87	6	9	5	261	310	394	704	133	320	21	5	313	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	580	540	149	17	2	13	30	146	6	14	6	276	321	387	708	111	355	25	5	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	—	580	525	157	20	2	14	45	121	6	14	6	299	361	425	786	126	365	21	8	351	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	517	454	106	15	2	6	54	150	6	15	1	233	323	315	638	81	333	29	10	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	—	517	434	110	18	2	8	74	121	6	15	1	253	370	359	729	106	332	23	14	335	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	449	416	102	13	3	3	24	122	6	10	2	245	296	312	608	67	339	27	5	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	449	405	99	14	3	3	35	113	6	10	2	244	314	316	630	72	331	25	8	288	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	454	414	75	5	3	7	30	141	6	9	5	181	247	258	505	77	252	31	7	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	—	454	393	77	6	3	10	51	115	6	9	5	196	298	303	601	107	246	25	11	277	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	387	354	92	14	3	9	24	112	6	12	4	260	318	393	710	133	356	29	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	387	345	100	16	3	13	33	95	6	12	4	290	362	467	829	177	367	25	9	365	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	—	203	183	40	7	3	2	16	59	2	15	5	219	291	322	614	104	295	29	8	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	472	430	86	17	3	4	30	138	9	13	4	200	269	281	551	81	273	29	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	405	380	81	13	3	7	16	119	6	9	5	213	256	318	574	105	287	29	4	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	580	539	149	17	2	13	30	146	6	14	6	276	321	388	709	111	352	25	5	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	517	452	106	15	2	6	54	150	6	15	1	235	323	316	639	82	332	29	10	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	449	416	102	13	3	3	24	122	6	10	2	245	296	312	608	67	335	27	5	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	454	415	75	5	3	7	30	141	6	9	5	181	247	258	504	77	249	31	7	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	387	354	92	14	3	9	24	112	6	12	4	260	318	393	710	133	351	29	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	449	416	102	13	3	3	24	122	6	10	2	245	296	312	608	67	335	27	5	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	454	415	75	5	3	7	30	141	6	9	5	181	247	258	504	77	249	31	7	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	387	354	92	14	3	9	24	112	6	12	4	260	318	393	710	133	351	29	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIL	10%	380	348	79	11	3	7	24	108	5	8	2	225	285	329	614	105	302	28	6	277	74	-12	+1	-1	+1	+8	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIL	10%	16	15	2	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	223	283	328	611	105	298	31	6	276	74	-1	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIL	31%	286	262	58	8	2	5	18	81	4	5	1	224	285	329	614	105	301	28	6	277	73	-9	+1	-1	+1	+6	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIL	40%	284	260	58	8	2	5	18	80	4	4	1	223	284	327	611	104	299	28	6	276	73	-9	+0	-2	+1	+6	-0.4
2030	30	MLB MLE	MIL	45%	281	258	57	8	2	5	18	80	3	3	1	221	282	324	606	103	297	28	6	274	71	-10	+0	-3	+1	+6	-0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIL	31%	89	82	18	2	1	2	6	25	1	2	0	222	283	328	610	106	297	28	7	275	73	-3	+0	-0	+0	+2	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIL	40%	112	103	23	3	1	2	7	32	1	2	1	221	282	326	608	105	295	29	6	274	73	-4	+0	-1	+0	+2	-0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	MIL	45%	125	114	25	3	1	2	8	35	2	1	0	219	280	322	603	103	293	28	6	272	71	-4	+0	-1	+0	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	388	357	78	10	3	6	24	116	4	5	1	218	275	314	589	95	304	30	6	265	71	-15	+1	-3	+4	+8	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	598	131	17	5	10	40	194	7	8	2	219	276	314	590	95	305	30	6	265	71	-26	+1	-5	+7	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	4473	4087	936	129	29	69	288	1272	60	112	36	229	290	325	615	96	313	28	6	274	71	-37	+1	-6	+7	+23	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	136	19	4	10	42	185	9	16	5	229	290	325	615	96	313	28	6	274	71	-23	+1	-4	+4	+14	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 365 PAwOBA .366 → .314 (−52)K% 23.0% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.01%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	27.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.77%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.018	6.16%
HBP% /PA	1.64%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.57%
Singles /BIP	26.67%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.043	×1.018	26.32%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.043	×1.018	5.87%
Triples /BIP	1.25%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.043	×1.018	1.29%
Home runs /BIP	5.42%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.018	3.86%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.

Result: wOBA .366 → .314; ISO .188 → .146; BABIP .366 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 454 PAwOBA .271 → .233 (−38)K% 25.3% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.33%	÷0.976	×1.200	—	—	31.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.79%	÷1.140	×0.690	—	×1.033	6.75%
HBP% /PA	1.32%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.28%
Singles /BIP	20.86%	÷0.968	×0.930	×1.047	×1.033	21.68%
Doubles /BIP	2.16%	÷1.162	×0.830	×1.047	×1.033	1.67%
Triples /BIP	1.08%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.047	×1.033	1.26%
Home runs /BIP	3.60%	÷0.961	×0.700	—	×1.033	2.71%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 95, BB 128 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.

Result: wOBA .271 → .233; ISO .107 → .086; BABIP .246 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARound Rock Express · 368 PAwOBA .289 → .272 (−17)K% 23.6% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.64%	÷1.069	×1.200	—	—	26.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.88%	÷1.040	×0.690	—	×1.048	5.48%
HBP% /PA	1.36%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.34%
Singles /BIP	27.46%	÷0.989	×0.930	×1.050	×1.048	28.42%
Doubles /BIP	4.10%	÷0.987	×0.830	×1.050	×1.048	3.79%
Triples /BIP	1.23%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.050	×1.048	1.14%
Home runs /BIP	1.23%	÷0.928	×0.700	—	×1.048	0.97%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 114, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .289 → .272; ISO .076 → .067; BABIP .331 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAARound Rock Express · 517 PAwOBA .328 → .288 (−40)K% 23.4% → 29.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.40%	÷0.964	×1.200	—	—	29.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.31%	÷0.991	×0.690	—	×1.050	10.46%
HBP% /PA	1.16%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.15%
Singles /BIP	26.20%	÷0.993	×0.930	×1.050	×1.050	27.06%
Doubles /BIP	5.75%	÷1.044	×0.830	×1.050	×1.050	5.04%
Triples /BIP	0.64%	÷0.918	×0.970	×1.050	×1.050	0.74%
Home runs /BIP	2.56%	÷1.035	×0.700	—	×1.050	1.82%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 84, K 93, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .328 → .288; ISO .106 → .085; BABIP .332 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 580 PAwOBA .340 → .309 (−31)K% 20.9% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.86%	÷1.010	×1.220	—	—	25.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.07%	÷1.012	×0.700	—	×1.042	5.10%
HBP% /PA	1.03%	—	×0.870	—	×1.042	0.94%
Singles /BIP	29.95%	÷1.003	×0.920	×1.025	×1.042	29.35%
Doubles /BIP	4.95%	÷1.030	×0.840	×1.025	×1.042	4.32%
Triples /BIP	0.50%	÷0.900	×0.940	×1.025	×1.042	0.55%
Home runs /BIP	3.47%	÷0.915	×0.800	—	×1.042	3.16%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .340 → .309; ISO .126 → .113; BABIP .365 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Hickory Crawdads · 405 PAwOBA .305 → .250 (−55)K% 21.5% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.48%	÷0.990	×1.350	—	—	29.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.19%	÷0.964	×0.710	—	×1.027	3.92%
HBP% /PA	1.48%	—	×0.810	—	×1.027	1.23%
Singles /BIP	23.53%	÷1.024	×0.910	×1.009	×1.027	21.67%
Doubles /BIP	6.23%	÷1.091	×0.830	×1.009	×1.027	4.91%
Triples /BIP	1.38%	÷0.900	×0.820	×1.009	×1.027	1.31%
Home runs /BIP	2.77%	÷0.881	×0.830	—	×1.027	2.68%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 105, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .305 → .250; ISO .133 → .110; BABIP .320 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AHickory Crawdads · 472 PAwOBA .314 → .246 (−68)K% 21.8% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.82%	÷0.997	×1.340	—	—	29.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.69%	÷0.955	×0.660	—	×1.045	6.27%
HBP% /PA	1.91%	—	×0.770	—	×1.045	1.53%
Singles /BIP	23.55%	÷1.033	×0.920	×0.950	×1.045	20.82%
Doubles /BIP	7.74%	÷1.106	×0.820	×0.950	×1.045	5.70%
Triples /BIP	0.97%	÷0.907	×0.940	×0.950	×1.045	1.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.94%	÷1.183	×0.820	—	×1.045	1.40%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 107, 2B 121, 3B 81, K 99, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .314 → .246; ISO .116 → .085; BABIP .322 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKAZL Rangers · 203 PAwOBA .373 → .274 (−99)K% 20.2% → 29.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.20%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	29.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.32%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.022	7.81%
HBP% /PA	0.99%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.73%
Singles /BIP	26.72%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.988	×1.022	22.13%
Doubles /BIP	7.63%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.988	×1.022	5.55%
Triples /BIP	3.05%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.988	×1.022	2.22%
Home runs /BIP	2.29%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	1.83%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .373 → .274; ISO .157 → .114; BABIP .371 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Frank Duffy'70-'79 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,924 PA	4.4	2,924	26	49	234*	283*	348*	+30	-2	0.9	2.1
/162	664	6	11	+6.7	-0.5	0.2	pk7: 3
#2Scott Leius'90-'99 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,727 PA	2.6	1,727	28	16	237*	306*	358*	+5	+5	1.5	2.1
/162	664	11	6	+2.0	+1.9	0.6	pk7: 3
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.5	342	6	5	224	281	328	+4	-0	0.2	0.2
/162	664	12	9	+6.9	-0.3	0.4	pk7: 0
#4Doug Strange'89-'98 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,067 PA	3.1	2,067	31	14	225*	286*	340*	+5	-0	-1.5	0.0
/162	664	10	4	+1.6	-0.1	-0.5	pk7: 1
#5Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jonathan Ornelas (OGILVIE)	27	35	40	50	55	223/282/327	104	302	3	3	28%	6%	74	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕William Simoneit 2024 · AAA	27	43	44→45	48→45	43	211/286/328	116	300	11	6	32%	8%	76	-0.4	194/259/307	113	315	11	6	39%	6%	60	-1.6	165/229/267	102	285	10	2	43%	6%	38	-1.0
✕Maverick Handley 2024 · AAA	26	42	42→40	50	47	203/297/306	103	287	10	13	31%	9%	75	-0.5	206/294/291	85	286	6	10	27%	9%	70	-0.8	194/286/264	70	270	4	8	27%	9%	60	-0.6
✕Aaron Schunk 2024 · AAA	27	45→48	44→45	47→50	39	220/266/337	117	304	11	10	31%	6%	69	-0.9	226/270/344	118	296	10	11	26%	5%	72	-0.7	220/264/333	113	284	9	10	25%	5%	65	-0.8
✕Grae Kessinger 2024 · MLB	26	40→30	45	46→50	48	204/282/322	118	264	14	13	28%	9%	73	-0.6	200/274/299	99	273	9	11	28%	9%	64	-1.3	159/229/234	75	220	6	10	29%	7%	30	-1.6
✕Alex De Goti 2022 · AAA	27	43→48	42→45	51→50	44	210/275/319	109	284	9	8	28%	7%	68	-1.0	205/280/296	91	275	7	10	26%	9%	65	-1.2	196/276/272	76	261	5	10	25%	9%	56	-1.1
✕Connor Kaiser 2024 · AAA	27	40	45	55→50	45	198/275/318	121	285	12	18	33%	9%	69	-0.9	194/273/297	103	301	9	10	35%	9%	63	-1.3	184/267/283	99	288	8	6	36%	9%	55	-1.0
✕Willie MacIver 2024 · AAA	27	42→35	44→50	51→55	44	204/282/321	118	298	12	17	34%	8%	72	-0.7	234/302/366	132	319	12	14	29%	7%	89	+0.5	233/299/367	133	313	13	12	28%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Trevor Schwecke 2024 · AAA	26	45	44→45	49→50	42	221/282/338	117	306	11	11	30%	7%	76	-0.4	223/279/330	107	320	9	15	31%	7%	72	-0.7	214/267/307	93	317	6	18	32%	6%	60	-0.9
✕Chris Roller 2024 · AAA	27	40	45	51→55	46	199/289/321	122	284	12	18	32%	9%	76	-0.4	192/260/312	120	334	13	15	43%	8%	62	-1.4	148/203/249	101	285	11	12	50%	6%	23	-2.7
✕Gerardo Bustamante 2012 · AAA	26	41	44→40	51→50	43	208/270/317	109	268	13	14	27%	7%	66	-1.1	220/259/312	92	279	10	11	24%	4%	60	-1.6	198/232/274	76	253	10	9	26%	3%	38	-0.8
✕David Sheaffer 2022 · AAA	27	43	42→50	49→40	39	214/258/321	107	293	10	6	30%	5%	62	-1.4	198/250/294	96	289	8	7	32%	6%	53	-2.1	140/193/216	76	211	6	0	35%	5%	12	-1.3
✕Kramer Robertson 2022 · AAA	27	44→50	44→40	51→55	51	218/300/338	120	268	11	13	23%	9%	82	+0.0	204/305/291	87	271	8	22	25%	10%	75	-0.5	187/300/252	65	256	6	26	26%	11%	62	-1.2
✕Morgan McCullough 2024 · AAA	26	42	44→45	49→50	44	204/285/323	119	291	11	12	32%	8%	74	-0.5	208/286/330	122	294	11	15	31%	9%	76	-0.4	175/268/298	123	241	12	20	30%	10%	61	-0.5
✕Danny Mendick 2021 · MLB	27	45→47	46→45	47→50	47	228/288/358	130	271	14	13	22%	7%	82	+0.0	234/295/345	111	290	11	9	22%	7%	82	-0.0	232/296/330	99	283	10	11	21%	7%	77	-0.2
✕Koyie Hill 2006 · MLB	27	45→42	43→45	48→40	49	220/291/333	113	284	10	8	26%	9%	78	-0.3	214/270/332	118	268	11	6	24%	7%	70	-0.9	222/276/343	122	280	11	2	24%	6%	73	-0.4
✕Logan Warmoth 2023 · AAA	27	43→40	42→40	51→55	42	202/280/309	107	314	9	19	36%	8%	69	-0.9	195/274/288	93	280	9	21	31%	8%	62	-1.4	176/261/250	74	249	7	25	30%	9%	47	-1.5
✕Taylor Featherston 2017 · MLB	27	41→46	46→50	49→50	38	209/254/341	132	265	14	11	27%	4%	66	-1.1	188/245/307	119	285	13	11	37%	5%	55	-2.0	164/223/274	110	271	13	10	43%	5%	37	-2.1
✕Stevie Berman 2023 · AAA	28	39	45	48→40	48	196/284/317	121	252	12	5	26%	9%	73	-0.6	215/295/329	114	287	12	7	27%	9%	79	-0.2	193/288/250	57	260	7	0	26%	11%	57	-0.4
✕Ryan Cordell 2019 · MLB	27	40→42	46→50	51→50	38	206/250/335	129	270	13	14	29%	5%	63	-1.4	205/263/336	131	292	15	12	33%	6%	68	-1.0	183/249/317	135	266	18	12	37%	7%	58	-0.8
✕Kevin Smith 2023 · MLB	27	41→45	48→55	54→50	40	211/265/353	142	289	15	14	32%	6%	73	-0.6	214/258/349	135	309	17	16	35%	5%	70	-0.9	207/246/338	131	298	19	19	36%	4%	60	-0.8

Jonathan Ornelas

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps