Grae Kessinger
3B Indianapolis Indians| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAAHOU | 294 | .262/.338/.388 | 6 | 7 | 59 | — | .216/.270/.319 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLBHOU | 25 | .000/.160/.000 | 0 | 0 | -37 | -0.3 | |
| 2025 | 27 | AAAARI | 47 | .235/.447/.324 | 0 | 1 | 86 | — | .184/.340/.237 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA/A+2 orgs | 188 | .120/.249/.190 | 1 | 3 | -6 | — | .096/.189/.151 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBPIT | 14 | .189/.271/.287 | 0 | 0 | 60 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 30 | MLBPIT | 51 | .189/.269/.285 | 1 | 1 | 59 | -0.2 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 201 | 170 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 32 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 224 | 337 | 294 | 631 | 71 | 261 | 16 | 13 | 295 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 331 | 297 | 62 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 27 | 81 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 209 | 288 | 330 | 618 | 121 | 255 | 24 | 8 | 282 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 77 | 65 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 277 | 390 | 431 | 820 | 154 | 302 | 13 | 14 | 370 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 500 | 421 | 89 | 13 | 2 | 16 | 69 | 113 | 5 | 23 | 10 | 211 | 329 | 366 | 695 | 154 | 247 | 23 | 14 | 315 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Houston Astros | — | 45 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 200 | 289 | 325 | 614 | 125 | 259 | 27 | 11 | 281 | 75 | -1 | -0 | +3 | +3 | +1 | 0.5 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 230 | 184 | 52 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 45 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 283 | 408 | 435 | 843 | 152 | 331 | 20 | 15 | 371 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | — | 25 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 160 | 28 | 12 | 113 | -37 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.3 | ||||
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 294 | 263 | 69 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 68 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 262 | 338 | 388 | 726 | 125 | 332 | 23 | 10 | 327 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 47 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 235 | 447 | 324 | 770 | 88 | 364 | 26 | 28 | 371 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 159 | 138 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 40 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 116 | 218 | 174 | 392 | 58 | 152 | 25 | 9 | 190 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 29 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 414 | 300 | 714 | 150 | 273 | 31 | 21 | 353 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 70 | 61 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 131 | 243 | 213 | 456 | 82 | 171 | 27 | 11 | 221 | 36 | -5 | -0 | +3 | +4 | +2 | 0.3 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 201 | 180 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 43 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 183 | 261 | 239 | 500 | 56 | 224 | 21 | 8 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 331 | 305 | 52 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 103 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 170 | 233 | 252 | 486 | 82 | 231 | 31 | 6 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 500 | 446 | 74 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 44 | 146 | 5 | 23 | 10 | 166 | 248 | 278 | 527 | 112 | 208 | 29 | 9 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB MLE | Houston Astros | — | 45 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 200 | 289 | 325 | 614 | 125 | 259 | 27 | 11 | 279 | 75 | -1 | -0 | +3 | +3 | +1 | 0.5 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 230 | 195 | 50 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 54 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 256 | 350 | 385 | 734 | 128 | 301 | 23 | 10 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | Houston Astros | — | 25 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 160 | 28 | 12 | 113 | -37 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.3 | ||||
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 294 | 273 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 81 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 216 | 270 | 319 | 588 | 103 | 283 | 28 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 47 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 184 | 340 | 237 | 577 | 53 | 316 | 30 | 19 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 159 | 143 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 48 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 98 | 173 | 147 | 320 | 49 | 126 | 30 | 6 | 146 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 29 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 87 | 276 | 174 | 450 | 87 | 200 | 41 | 10 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 201 | 180 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 43 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 183 | 261 | 239 | 500 | 56 | 226 | 21 | 8 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A RAW | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 201 | 170 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 32 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 224 | 337 | 294 | 631 | 71 | 261 | 16 | 13 | 295 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 408 | 376 | 64 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 127 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 170 | 233 | 258 | 491 | 88 | 231 | 31 | 6 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 408 | 362 | 80 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 38 | 91 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 221 | 307 | 348 | 655 | 127 | 264 | 22 | 9 | 299 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 500 | 446 | 74 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 44 | 146 | 5 | 23 | 10 | 166 | 248 | 278 | 527 | 112 | 213 | 29 | 9 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 500 | 421 | 89 | 13 | 2 | 16 | 69 | 113 | 5 | 23 | 10 | 211 | 329 | 366 | 695 | 154 | 247 | 23 | 14 | 315 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 275 | 235 | 58 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 66 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 247 | 340 | 374 | 714 | 128 | 308 | 24 | 11 | 317 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 275 | 224 | 60 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 57 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 268 | 388 | 415 | 803 | 147 | 319 | 21 | 15 | 356 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 319 | 294 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 88 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 201 | 261 | 296 | 557 | 95 | 267 | 28 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 319 | 284 | 69 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 75 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 243 | 324 | 359 | 683 | 116 | 309 | 24 | 10 | 310 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 47 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 184 | 340 | 237 | 577 | 53 | 292 | 30 | 19 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | Reno Aces | — | 47 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 235 | 447 | 324 | 770 | 88 | 364 | 26 | 28 | 371 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 188 | 165 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 60 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 97 | 195 | 152 | 346 | 55 | 142 | 32 | 7 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 188 | 158 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 49 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 120 | 249 | 190 | 439 | 70 | 164 | 26 | 11 | 215 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 201 | 180 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 43 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 183 | 261 | 239 | 500 | 56 | 224 | 21 | 8 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 408 | 374 | 64 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 127 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 171 | 233 | 259 | 493 | 88 | 231 | 31 | 6 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 500 | 447 | 74 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 44 | 146 | 5 | 23 | 10 | 166 | 248 | 277 | 526 | 112 | 208 | 29 | 9 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 275 | 240 | 58 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 66 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 242 | 340 | 367 | 706 | 125 | 294 | 24 | 11 | 317 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 319 | 292 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 88 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 202 | 261 | 298 | 559 | 96 | 261 | 28 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 47 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 184 | 340 | 237 | 577 | 53 | 316 | 30 | 19 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 188 | 166 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 60 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 96 | 195 | 151 | 345 | 54 | 137 | 32 | 7 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 319 | 292 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 88 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 202 | 261 | 298 | 559 | 96 | 261 | 28 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 47 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 184 | 340 | 237 | 577 | 53 | 316 | 30 | 19 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 188 | 166 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 60 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 96 | 195 | 151 | 345 | 54 | 137 | 32 | 7 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | PIT | 10% | 226 | 202 | 38 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 64 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 189 | 270 | 289 | 559 | 99 | 256 | 28 | 8 | 257 | 60 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | PIT | 10% | 14 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 271 | 287 | 558 | 98 | 257 | 29 | 7 | 256 | 60 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | PIT | 27% | 187 | 166 | 32 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 53 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 189 | 269 | 286 | 556 | 98 | 255 | 28 | 9 | 255 | 59 | -9 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +4 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | PIT | 27% | 51 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 189 | 269 | 285 | 554 | 96 | 257 | 27 | 8 | 255 | 59 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 121 | 107 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 159 | 256 | 252 | 509 | 93 | 208 | 27 | 10 | 235 | 50 | -8 | -0 | +2 | +4 | +3 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 575 | 91 | 21 | 0 | 11 | 64 | 177 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 158 | 255 | 252 | 508 | 94 | 207 | 27 | 10 | 235 | 50 | -42 | -1 | +12 | +23 | +14 | 0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2265 | 2025 | 367 | 68 | 3 | 39 | 187 | 636 | 31 | 60 | 26 | 181 | 261 | 276 | 536 | 94 | 240 | 28 | 8 | 241 | 50 | -21 | -0 | +1 | +5 | +9 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 106 | 20 | 1 | 11 | 54 | 183 | 9 | 17 | 7 | 182 | 262 | 277 | 540 | 95 | 242 | 28 | 8 | 241 | 50 | -35 | -1 | +1 | +9 | +14 | -1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 159 PAwOBA .188 → .146 (−43)K% 25.2% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.16% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 6.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.89% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 8.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.10% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 3.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 0.70% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .188 → .146; ISO .058 → .043; BABIP .152 → .126. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 29 PAwOBA .346 → .235 (−112)K% 31.0% → 40.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.03% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 40.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.940 | 11.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 10.34% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.940 | 7.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 20.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .346 → .235; ISO .150 → .117; BABIP .273 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAReno Aces · 47 PAwOBA .364 → .295 (−69)K% 25.5% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.53% | ÷1.025 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 27.66% | ÷0.964 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 19.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.73% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 21.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.64% | ÷1.069 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 10.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.902 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.904 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .364 → .295; ISO .088 → .073; BABIP .364 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 294 PAwOBA .318 → .255 (−63)K% 23.1% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.13% | ÷1.006 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.86% | ÷1.022 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.13% | ÷1.035 | ×0.930 | ×0.956 | ×1.003 | 21.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.953 | ×0.830 | ×0.956 | ×1.003 | 5.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.51% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.956 | ×1.003 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.08% | ÷0.903 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.39% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 107, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .318 → .255; ISO .125 → .101; BABIP .332 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 230 PAwOBA .371 → .324 (−48)K% 19.6% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.57% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.22% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 10.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.74% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.90% | ÷0.981 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 23.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.19% | ÷0.882 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 6.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.056 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.32% | ÷0.896 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 3.43% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 96, 2B 76, 3B 111, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .371 → .324; ISO .152 → .136; BABIP .331 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 500 PAwOBA .309 → .237 (−73)K% 22.6% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.60% | ÷0.947 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.80% | ÷1.084 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 8.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.83% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×0.955 | ×0.998 | 16.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.22% | ÷0.986 | ×0.840 | ×0.955 | ×0.998 | 3.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.65% | ÷1.044 | ×0.940 | ×0.955 | ×0.998 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.19% | ÷1.040 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.99% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 109, K 89, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .309 → .237; ISO .154 → .120; BABIP .247 → .208. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 331 PAwOBA .276 → .220 (−56)K% 24.5% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.47% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.16% | ÷0.990 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 5.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.81% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.37% | ÷1.002 | ×0.940 | ×0.978 | ×1.012 | 18.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.987 | ×0.870 | ×0.978 | ×1.012 | 3.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.978 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.074 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 3.06% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 100, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .276 → .220; ISO .121 → .088; BABIP .255 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AQuad Cities River Bandits · 201 PAwOBA .287 → .230 (−57)K% 15.9% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.92% | ÷1.006 | ×1.360 | — | — | 21.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.94% | ÷1.010 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.49% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 19.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.128 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | — | 3.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.45% | ÷0.964 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.20% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 96, 2B 126, 3B 130, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .287 → .230; ISO .071 → .054; BABIP .261 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .