Willie MacIver
C Tacoma Rainiers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27 | AAACOL | 369 | .297/.386/.530 | 15 | 9 | 95 | — | .243/.314/.398 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAAOAK | 235 | .362/.431/.541 | 7 | 8 | 120 | — | .305/.362/.427 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLBOAK | 111 | .186/.252/.324 | 3 | 3 | 59 | 0.4 | |
| 2026 | 29 | AAASEA | 385 | .255/.351/.422 | 10 | 5 | 67 | — | .206/.280/.328 |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 30 | MLBSEA | 70 | .212/.281/.342 | 2 | 1 | 78 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ48% MLB | 31 | MLBSEA | 115 | .210/.278/.336 | 3 | 1 | 75 | -0.1 |
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 55
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A | Asheville Tourists | — | 480 | 425 | 107 | 27 | 3 | 13 | 34 | 105 | 11 | 12 | 4 | 252 | 323 | 421 | 745 | 169 | 300 | 22 | 7 | 326 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 212 | 192 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 64 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 167 | 242 | 266 | 507 | 99 | 218 | 30 | 8 | 235 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | — | 201 | 168 | 48 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 49 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 286 | 397 | 542 | 939 | 256 | 345 | 24 | 12 | 408 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 39 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 242 | 359 | 273 | 632 | 30 | 320 | 21 | 13 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 23 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 217 | 143 | 360 | 231 | 35 | 9 | 179 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 396 | 346 | 80 | 18 | 0 | 15 | 37 | 106 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 231 | 318 | 413 | 731 | 182 | 284 | 27 | 9 | 323 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 201 | 163 | 41 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 56 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 252 | 387 | 393 | 780 | 141 | 358 | 28 | 16 | 354 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | ROK | ACL Rockies | — | 54 | 39 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 359 | 537 | 513 | 1.050 | 154 | 500 | 20 | 22 | 472 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 369 | 317 | 94 | 19 | 5 | 15 | 37 | 90 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 297 | 386 | 530 | 916 | 233 | 366 | 24 | 10 | 395 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Athletics | — | 111 | 102 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 186 | 252 | 324 | 576 | 137 | 222 | 24 | 6 | 261 | 59 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +2 | 0.4 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 235 | 207 | 75 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 44 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 362 | 431 | 541 | 972 | 179 | 428 | 19 | 9 | 424 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 385 | 329 | 84 | 19 | 3 | 10 | 43 | 98 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 255 | 351 | 422 | 773 | 167 | 326 | 25 | 11 | 342 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 111 | 102 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 186 | 252 | 324 | 576 | 137 | 222 | 24 | 6 | 261 | 63 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +2 | 0.4 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 480 | 440 | 77 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 145 | 11 | 12 | 4 | 175 | 228 | 277 | 505 | 102 | 226 | 30 | 4 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 212 | 197 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 76 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 137 | 194 | 213 | 408 | 76 | 191 | 36 | 5 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 201 | 177 | 39 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 68 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 220 | 307 | 384 | 691 | 164 | 304 | 34 | 8 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 23 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 91 | 130 | 91 | 221 | 209 | 43 | 4 | 139 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 396 | 357 | 70 | 15 | 0 | 11 | 26 | 129 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 196 | 264 | 331 | 595 | 134 | 255 | 33 | 7 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 201 | 172 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 71 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 209 | 317 | 314 | 631 | 105 | 324 | 35 | 11 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 54 | 44 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 250 | 389 | 364 | 753 | 114 | 371 | 30 | 13 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 369 | 329 | 80 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 110 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 243 | 314 | 398 | 712 | 155 | 321 | 30 | 7 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB MLE | Athletics | — | 111 | 102 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 176 | 243 | 304 | 547 | 127 | 222 | 24 | 6 | 255 | 59 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +2 | 0.4 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 235 | 213 | 65 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 51 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 305 | 362 | 427 | 789 | 122 | 373 | 22 | 6 | 345 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 385 | 344 | 71 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 117 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 206 | 280 | 328 | 608 | 122 | 275 | 30 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 480 | 440 | 77 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 145 | 11 | 12 | 4 | 175 | 228 | 277 | 505 | 102 | 235 | 30 | 4 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A RAW | Asheville Tourists | — | 480 | 425 | 107 | 27 | 3 | 13 | 34 | 105 | 11 | 12 | 4 | 252 | 323 | 421 | 745 | 169 | 300 | 22 | 7 | 326 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 452 | 409 | 71 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 30 | 158 | 10 | 21 | 7 | 174 | 247 | 291 | 538 | 117 | 248 | 35 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 452 | 393 | 88 | 16 | 1 | 15 | 46 | 121 | 10 | 21 | 7 | 224 | 321 | 384 | 705 | 160 | 282 | 27 | 10 | 317 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 419 | 379 | 72 | 15 | 0 | 11 | 27 | 138 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 190 | 257 | 317 | 573 | 127 | 261 | 33 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 419 | 367 | 83 | 18 | 0 | 15 | 39 | 114 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 226 | 312 | 398 | 710 | 172 | 281 | 27 | 9 | 315 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 255 | 216 | 46 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 87 | 7 | 16 | 4 | 213 | 328 | 310 | 638 | 97 | 341 | 34 | 12 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 255 | 202 | 55 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 44 | 67 | 7 | 16 | 4 | 272 | 419 | 416 | 835 | 144 | 388 | 26 | 17 | 379 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 369 | 329 | 80 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 110 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 243 | 314 | 398 | 712 | 155 | 332 | 30 | 7 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA RAW | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 369 | 317 | 94 | 19 | 5 | 15 | 37 | 90 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 297 | 386 | 530 | 916 | 233 | 366 | 24 | 10 | 395 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 346 | 315 | 84 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 78 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 267 | 327 | 394 | 720 | 127 | 330 | 23 | 6 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 346 | 309 | 94 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 71 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 304 | 373 | 469 | 842 | 165 | 364 | 21 | 8 | 372 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 385 | 344 | 71 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 117 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 206 | 280 | 328 | 608 | 122 | 283 | 30 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA RAW | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 385 | 329 | 84 | 19 | 3 | 10 | 43 | 98 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 255 | 351 | 422 | 773 | 167 | 326 | 25 | 11 | 342 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 480 | 447 | 77 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 145 | 11 | 12 | 4 | 172 | 228 | 273 | 501 | 101 | 226 | 30 | 4 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 452 | 409 | 71 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 30 | 158 | 10 | 21 | 7 | 174 | 247 | 291 | 538 | 117 | 246 | 35 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 419 | 382 | 72 | 15 | 0 | 11 | 27 | 138 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 188 | 257 | 314 | 571 | 126 | 252 | 33 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 255 | 216 | 46 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 87 | 7 | 16 | 4 | 213 | 328 | 310 | 638 | 97 | 334 | 34 | 12 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 369 | 332 | 80 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 110 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 241 | 314 | 395 | 709 | 154 | 321 | 30 | 7 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 346 | 315 | 84 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 78 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 267 | 327 | 394 | 720 | 127 | 325 | 23 | 6 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 385 | 347 | 71 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 117 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 205 | 280 | 326 | 605 | 121 | 275 | 30 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 369 | 332 | 80 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 110 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 241 | 314 | 395 | 709 | 154 | 321 | 30 | 7 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 346 | 315 | 84 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 78 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 267 | 327 | 394 | 720 | 127 | 325 | 23 | 6 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 385 | 347 | 71 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 117 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 205 | 280 | 326 | 605 | 121 | 275 | 30 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | SEA | 45% | 380 | 344 | 74 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 103 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 214 | 283 | 348 | 630 | 133 | 276 | 27 | 7 | 283 | 78 | -10 | +1 | -2 | +7 | +8 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | SEA | 45% | 70 | 64 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 281 | 342 | 623 | 130 | 273 | 27 | 7 | 280 | 78 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | SEA | 48% | 242 | 219 | 48 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 66 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 212 | 280 | 341 | 621 | 129 | 273 | 27 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -7 | +0 | -4 | +4 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | SEA | 48% | 115 | 104 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 278 | 336 | 614 | 126 | 271 | 27 | 7 | 276 | 75 | -3 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 226 | 206 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 58 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 204 | 271 | 345 | 616 | 141 | 252 | 26 | 7 | 269 | 67 | -8 | +1 | -2 | +8 | +5 | 0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 592 | 121 | 26 | 3 | 17 | 43 | 167 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 204 | 272 | 345 | 617 | 140 | 253 | 26 | 7 | 269 | 67 | -24 | +2 | -5 | +24 | +14 | 1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3103 | 2792 | 580 | 117 | 17 | 65 | 210 | 941 | 62 | 90 | 25 | 208 | 278 | 332 | 610 | 124 | 284 | 30 | 7 | 267 | 67 | -16 | +1 | -5 | +13 | +11 | 0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 123 | 25 | 4 | 14 | 44 | 197 | 13 | 19 | 5 | 210 | 280 | 338 | 619 | 128 | 287 | 30 | 7 | 267 | 67 | -21 | +1 | -6 | +17 | +14 | 0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 385 PAwOBA .338 → .267 (−71)K% 25.5% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.45% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 7.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.56% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.972 | ×0.972 | 19.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.972 | ×0.972 | 6.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.972 | ×0.972 | 1.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 2.95% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .338 → .267; ISO .167 → .125; BABIP .326 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 235 PAwOBA .418 → .345 (−73)K% 18.7% → 21.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.72% | ÷1.027 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.94% | ÷0.970 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 6.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.70% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.13% | ÷1.052 | ×0.930 | ×1.031 | ×0.982 | 29.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.36% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | ×1.031 | ×0.982 | 6.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.031 | ×0.982 | 1.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.29% | ÷1.183 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 2.50% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .418 → .345; ISO .179 → .129; BABIP .428 → .373. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 369 PAwOBA .389 → .309 (−80)K% 24.4% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.39% | ÷0.979 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.03% | ÷1.018 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 6.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.44% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 2.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.23% | ÷0.990 | ×0.930 | ×0.998 | ×0.992 | 22.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.37% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | ×0.998 | ×0.992 | 6.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.20% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | ×0.992 | 1.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.61% | ÷1.096 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 4.19% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .389 → .309; ISO .233 → .165; BABIP .366 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 201 PAwOBA .349 → .281 (−68)K% 27.9% → 35.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.86% | ÷0.947 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.92% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 11.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.99% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.30% | ÷1.018 | ×0.930 | ×1.025 | ×1.003 | 22.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.35% | ÷1.002 | ×0.830 | ×1.025 | ×1.003 | 7.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.87% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.025 | ×1.003 | 1.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.80% | ÷1.062 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.85% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 89, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .349 → .281; ISO .141 → .107; BABIP .358 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Rockies · 54 PAwOBA .461 → .319 (−142)K% 20.4% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.37% | ÷0.996 | ×1.440 | — | — | 29.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 22.22% | ÷0.999 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 12.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.56% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 3.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.14% | ÷0.976 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 25.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.006 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 9.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.137 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 2.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.031 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 95, 2B 101, 3B 127, K 99, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .461 → .319; ISO .154 → .103; BABIP .500 → .371. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAHartford Yard Goats · 396 PAwOBA .317 → .259 (−58)K% 26.8% → 32.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.77% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.34% | ÷1.002 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.77% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.58% | ÷1.032 | ×0.970 | ×1.015 | ×0.988 | 18.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.50% | ÷1.035 | ×0.860 | ×1.015 | ×0.988 | 6.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.992 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 4.85% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 106, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .317 → .259; ISO .182 → .142; BABIP .284 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 23 PAwOBA .175 → .139 (−35)K% 34.8% → 41.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.78% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 41.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷0.945 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.047 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 20.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.038 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 109, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .175 → .139; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .231 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAHartford Yard Goats · 212 PAwOBA .230 → .181 (−49)K% 30.2% → 36.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.19% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.55% | ÷1.020 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.998 | 5.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.42% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.97% | ÷1.047 | ×0.940 | ×0.995 | ×0.998 | 16.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.010 | ×0.870 | ×0.995 | ×0.998 | 2.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.956 | ×0.920 | ×0.995 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.91% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 3.07% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 109, 2B 102, 3B 91, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .230 → .181; ISO .099 → .076; BABIP .218 → .191. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).