Tyler Rodriguez
SS Wisconsin Timber Rattlers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKMIL | 112 | .277/.459/.361 | 1 | 9 | 83 | — | .225/.378/.292 |
| 2025 | 19 | ACarolina Mudc… | 343 | .217/.392/.266 | 2 | 22 | 74 | — | .204/.345/.237 |
| 2026 | 20 | A+/AMIL | 269 | .234/.403/.344 | 4 | 14 | 83 | — | .210/.343/.310 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBMIL | 1 | .204/.331/.274 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ43% MLB | 22 | MLBMIL | 91 | .211/.336/.300 | 1 | 2 | 89 | 0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ61% MLB | 23 | MLBMIL | 183 | .216/.338/.317 | 3 | 5 | 94 | 0.5 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 20
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 97 | 70 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 200 | 417 | 300 | 717 | 100 | 218 | 14 | 20 | 348 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL Brewers | — | 112 | 83 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 277 | 459 | 361 | 821 | 84 | 319 | 12 | 15 | 388 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 343 | 263 | 57 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 59 | 54 | 17 | 22 | 8 | 217 | 392 | 266 | 658 | 49 | 261 | 16 | 17 | 321 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 171 | 140 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 35 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 243 | 380 | 336 | 716 | 93 | 311 | 20 | 15 | 337 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Wilson Warbirds | — | 98 | 69 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 217 | 443 | 362 | 806 | 145 | 236 | 13 | 26 | 378 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 97 | 75 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 133 | 323 | 187 | 510 | 53 | 139 | 18 | 14 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 112 | 89 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 225 | 378 | 292 | 671 | 67 | 253 | 18 | 10 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 343 | 279 | 57 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 71 | 17 | 22 | 8 | 204 | 345 | 237 | 582 | 32 | 257 | 21 | 13 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 171 | 147 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 44 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 218 | 327 | 299 | 627 | 82 | 293 | 26 | 11 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Wilson Warbirds | — | 98 | 76 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 18 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 197 | 371 | 329 | 700 | 132 | 212 | 18 | 18 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 97 | 75 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 133 | 323 | 187 | 510 | 53 | 155 | 18 | 14 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 97 | 70 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 200 | 417 | 300 | 717 | 100 | 218 | 14 | 20 | 348 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 112 | 89 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 225 | 378 | 292 | 671 | 67 | 275 | 18 | 10 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Brewers | — | 112 | 83 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 277 | 459 | 361 | 821 | 84 | 319 | 12 | 15 | 388 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 343 | 279 | 57 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 71 | 17 | 22 | 8 | 204 | 345 | 237 | 582 | 32 | 265 | 21 | 13 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A RAW | Carolina Mudcats | — | 343 | 263 | 57 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 59 | 54 | 17 | 22 | 8 | 217 | 392 | 266 | 658 | 49 | 261 | 16 | 17 | 321 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 269 | 223 | 45 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 36 | 62 | 9 | 14 | 10 | 202 | 336 | 283 | 618 | 81 | 264 | 23 | 13 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 269 | 209 | 49 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 50 | 48 | 9 | 14 | 10 | 234 | 403 | 344 | 747 | 110 | 285 | 18 | 19 | 352 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 97 | 76 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 132 | 323 | 184 | 507 | 53 | 139 | 18 | 14 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 112 | 89 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 225 | 378 | 292 | 671 | 67 | 253 | 18 | 10 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 343 | 280 | 57 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 71 | 17 | 22 | 8 | 204 | 345 | 236 | 581 | 32 | 257 | 21 | 13 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 269 | 222 | 45 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 36 | 62 | 9 | 14 | 10 | 203 | 336 | 284 | 620 | 81 | 263 | 23 | 13 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 112 | 89 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 225 | 378 | 292 | 671 | 67 | 253 | 18 | 10 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 343 | 280 | 57 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 71 | 17 | 22 | 8 | 204 | 345 | 236 | 581 | 32 | 257 | 21 | 13 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 269 | 222 | 45 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 36 | 62 | 9 | 14 | 10 | 203 | 336 | 284 | 620 | 81 | 263 | 23 | 13 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | MIL | 0% | 379 | 316 | 66 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 48 | 85 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 206 | 333 | 278 | 611 | 71 | 269 | 22 | 13 | 290 | 83 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB CTX | MIL | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 331 | 274 | 605 | 70 | 264 | 0 | 0 | 288 | 83 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | MIL | 43% | 210 | 176 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 46 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 214 | 338 | 302 | 640 | 89 | 271 | 22 | 12 | 300 | 89 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | MIL | 61% | 301 | 251 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 38 | 65 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 219 | 340 | 319 | 660 | 100 | 273 | 22 | 13 | 307 | 94 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.8 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIL | 66% | 371 | 311 | 70 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 46 | 80 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 222 | 342 | 331 | 672 | 108 | 275 | 22 | 12 | 311 | 97 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 1.1 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIL | 69% | 409 | 345 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 50 | 88 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 224 | 342 | 338 | 679 | 113 | 276 | 22 | 12 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +9 | 1.3 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIL | 70% | 431 | 364 | 83 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 52 | 93 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 225 | 341 | 341 | 682 | 116 | 276 | 22 | 12 | 314 | 99 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +9 | 1.3 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIL | 69% | 438 | 370 | 84 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 53 | 95 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 224 | 340 | 339 | 678 | 114 | 276 | 22 | 12 | 313 | 98 | -1 | -0 | +0 | +5 | +9 | 1.3 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIL | 68% | 437 | 369 | 82 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 53 | 96 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 222 | 338 | 334 | 672 | 111 | 275 | 22 | 12 | 310 | 96 | -2 | -0 | -1 | +5 | +9 | 1.1 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIL | 73% | 428 | 363 | 80 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 51 | 95 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 220 | 335 | 327 | 663 | 107 | 274 | 22 | 12 | 307 | 94 | -3 | -1 | -1 | +5 | +9 | 0.9 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIL | 76% | 417 | 353 | 76 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 50 | 94 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 217 | 332 | 320 | 651 | 103 | 272 | 23 | 12 | 302 | 91 | -5 | -1 | -2 | +4 | +9 | 0.6 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB MLE | MIL | 78% | 401 | 341 | 73 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 47 | 92 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 213 | 327 | 310 | 637 | 97 | 269 | 23 | 12 | 296 | 87 | -6 | -1 | -3 | +4 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB MLE | MIL | 79% | 379 | 323 | 66 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 44 | 89 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 208 | 321 | 297 | 619 | 90 | 266 | 23 | 12 | 289 | 82 | -8 | -3 | -4 | +4 | +8 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | MIL | 43% | 91 | 77 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 211 | 336 | 300 | 635 | 89 | 267 | 22 | 12 | 299 | 89 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | MIL | 61% | 183 | 153 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 40 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 216 | 338 | 317 | 656 | 101 | 269 | 22 | 13 | 305 | 94 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.5 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIL | 66% | 246 | 207 | 46 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 53 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 220 | 340 | 329 | 669 | 109 | 270 | 22 | 12 | 310 | 97 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.7 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIL | 69% | 281 | 237 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 34 | 61 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 222 | 340 | 336 | 676 | 114 | 271 | 22 | 12 | 312 | 98 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.9 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIL | 70% | 301 | 254 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 65 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 223 | 339 | 340 | 678 | 117 | 272 | 22 | 12 | 312 | 99 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 1.0 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIL | 69% | 302 | 255 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 66 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 222 | 338 | 337 | 675 | 115 | 272 | 22 | 12 | 311 | 98 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIL | 68% | 299 | 253 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 66 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 220 | 336 | 332 | 668 | 112 | 271 | 22 | 12 | 309 | 96 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +6 | 0.8 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIL | 73% | 311 | 263 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 37 | 69 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 218 | 333 | 326 | 659 | 108 | 270 | 22 | 12 | 305 | 94 | -2 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +7 | 0.7 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIL | 76% | 315 | 266 | 58 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 71 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 215 | 330 | 318 | 648 | 103 | 268 | 23 | 12 | 301 | 91 | -4 | -1 | -2 | +3 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB CTX | MIL | 78% | 311 | 263 | 55 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 71 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 211 | 325 | 308 | 633 | 97 | 265 | 23 | 12 | 295 | 87 | -5 | -1 | -2 | +3 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB CTX | MIL | 79% | 299 | 255 | 52 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 70 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 205 | 319 | 295 | 615 | 90 | 262 | 23 | 12 | 288 | 82 | -6 | -2 | -3 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2939 | 2483 | 539 | 89 | 5 | 55 | 353 | 652 | 78 | 57 | 36 | 217 | 333 | 323 | 656 | 106 | 270 | 22 | 12 | 304 | 90 | -24 | -3 | -8 | +31 | +64 | 6.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 549 | 119 | 20 | 1 | 12 | 78 | 144 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 217 | 332 | 322 | 654 | 106 | 270 | 22 | 12 | 304 | 90 | -5 | -1 | -2 | +7 | +14 | 1.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5202 | 4365 | 945 | 163 | 9 | 83 | 634 | 1139 | 163 | 140 | 81 | 216 | 337 | 315 | 652 | 99 | 272 | 22 | 12 | 301 | 90 | -37 | -6 | -10 | +47 | +95 | 9.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 545 | 117 | 20 | 1 | 10 | 79 | 142 | 20 | 17 | 10 | 215 | 335 | 310 | 645 | 95 | 270 | 22 | 12 | 301 | 90 | -5 | -1 | -2 | +7 | +14 | 1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 171 PAwOBA .329 → .280 (−49)K% 20.5% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.47% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 25.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 10.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.51% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 2.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.014 | ×1.042 | 23.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.014 | ×1.042 | 5.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.014 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.59% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .329 → .280; ISO .093 → .077; BABIP .311 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AWilson Warbirds · 98 PAwOBA .374 → .309 (−66)K% 13.3% → 18.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.27% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 18.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 25.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 18.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.06% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 2.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×1.030 | 14.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×1.030 | 6.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.982 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.94% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .374 → .309; ISO .145 → .129; BABIP .236 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ACarolina Mudcats · 343 PAwOBA .318 → .278 (−40)K% 15.7% → 20.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.74% | ÷1.033 | ×1.360 | — | — | 20.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.20% | ÷0.981 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 12.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.96% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 4.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.97% | ÷0.948 | ×0.920 | ×0.995 | ×1.045 | 23.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.35% | ÷1.002 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×1.045 | 2.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.995 | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.96% | ÷1.214 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.66% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 107, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .318 → .278; ISO .049 → .040; BABIP .261 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Brewers · 112 PAwOBA .383 → .291 (−92)K% 12.5% → 18.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.002 | ×1.440 | — | — | 17.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.18% | ÷1.014 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 9.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 9.82% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 7.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.09% | ÷1.015 | ×0.820 | ×0.995 | ×1.022 | 21.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.80% | ÷1.088 | ×0.720 | ×0.995 | ×1.022 | 3.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×0.995 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.45% | ÷0.947 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 1.22% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 103, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .383 → .291; ISO .084 → .067; BABIP .319 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Brewers 1 · 97 PAwOBA .345 → .238 (−107)K% 14.4% → 17.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.43% | ÷0.992 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.59% | ÷0.991 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 14.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 7.22% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 5.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.64% | ÷1.015 | ×0.680 | ×0.955 | ×1.022 | 12.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.79% | ÷0.988 | ×0.600 | ×0.955 | ×1.022 | 1.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.052 | ×0.600 | ×0.955 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.026 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 1.67% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 103, 2B 98, 3B 110, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .345 → .238; ISO .100 → .053; BABIP .218 → .139. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).