Jesus Castillo
SS Altoona Curve| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | APIT | 110 | .141/.330/.165 | 0 | 10 | 20 | — | .109/.248/.120 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+PIT | 397 | .241/.328/.287 | 2 | 13 | 47 | — | .215/.277/.254 |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA/AAPIT | 359 | .255/.327/.333 | 5 | 10 | 64 | — | .236/.290/.300 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBPIT | 4 | .192/.251/.250 | 0 | 0 | 43 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 25 | MLBPIT | 79 | .197/.257/.266 | 1 | 2 | 50 | -0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 26 | MLBPIT | 135 | .200/.261/.277 | 2 | 3 | 54 | -0.3 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 20
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL PIT Black | — | 170 | 147 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 30 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 245 | 343 | 272 | 615 | 27 | 305 | 18 | 10 | 292 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Pirates | — | 150 | 128 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 18 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 352 | 439 | 383 | 822 | 31 | 409 | 12 | 11 | 375 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | INTL | Sydney Blue Sox | — | 126 | 113 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 142 | 230 | 168 | 398 | 27 | 180 | 19 | 10 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 506 | 383 | 80 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 102 | 95 | 13 | 39 | 9 | 209 | 392 | 251 | 642 | 42 | 270 | 19 | 20 | 314 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 110 | 85 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 26 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 141 | 330 | 165 | 495 | 24 | 203 | 24 | 20 | 259 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 397 | 348 | 84 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 36 | 89 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 241 | 328 | 287 | 616 | 46 | 315 | 22 | 9 | 287 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 94 | 83 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 277 | 362 | 289 | 651 | 12 | 354 | 19 | 11 | 307 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 265 | 238 | 59 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 60 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 248 | 314 | 349 | 663 | 101 | 310 | 23 | 8 | 297 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL PIT Black | — | 170 | 152 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 38 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 164 | 249 | 184 | 433 | 20 | 207 | 22 | 7 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Pirates | — | 150 | 134 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 24 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 291 | 358 | 313 | 672 | 22 | 345 | 16 | 7 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 506 | 412 | 81 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 73 | 124 | 13 | 39 | 9 | 197 | 335 | 233 | 568 | 36 | 263 | 25 | 14 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 110 | 92 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 36 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 109 | 248 | 120 | 367 | 11 | 191 | 33 | 14 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 397 | 362 | 78 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 117 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 215 | 277 | 254 | 531 | 39 | 301 | 29 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 94 | 86 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 267 | 330 | 279 | 609 | 12 | 361 | 23 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 265 | 244 | 55 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 73 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 225 | 276 | 307 | 583 | 82 | 300 | 28 | 5 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL PIT Black | — | 170 | 152 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 38 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 164 | 249 | 184 | 433 | 20 | 217 | 22 | 7 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL PIT Black | — | 170 | 147 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 30 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 245 | 343 | 272 | 615 | 27 | 305 | 18 | 10 | 292 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 250 | 72 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 45 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 288 | 350 | 312 | 662 | 24 | 351 | 16 | 7 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 276 | 241 | 61 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 42 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 253 | 343 | 282 | 625 | 29 | 307 | 15 | 11 | 293 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 506 | 412 | 81 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 73 | 124 | 13 | 39 | 9 | 197 | 335 | 233 | 568 | 36 | 273 | 25 | 14 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | Bradenton Marauders | — | 506 | 383 | 80 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 102 | 95 | 13 | 39 | 9 | 209 | 392 | 251 | 642 | 42 | 270 | 19 | 20 | 314 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 110 | 92 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 36 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 109 | 248 | 120 | 367 | 11 | 179 | 33 | 14 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | Bradenton Marauders | — | 110 | 85 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 26 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 141 | 330 | 165 | 495 | 24 | 203 | 24 | 20 | 259 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 397 | 362 | 78 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 117 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 215 | 277 | 254 | 531 | 39 | 309 | 29 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 397 | 348 | 84 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 36 | 89 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 241 | 328 | 287 | 616 | 46 | 315 | 22 | 9 | 287 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 359 | 329 | 79 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 95 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 240 | 296 | 304 | 600 | 64 | 325 | 26 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 359 | 321 | 82 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 78 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 255 | 327 | 333 | 660 | 78 | 322 | 22 | 8 | 300 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL PIT Black | — | 170 | 151 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 38 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 166 | 249 | 185 | 434 | 20 | 207 | 22 | 7 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 250 | 72 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 45 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 288 | 350 | 312 | 662 | 24 | 345 | 16 | 7 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 506 | 415 | 81 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 73 | 124 | 13 | 39 | 9 | 195 | 335 | 231 | 567 | 36 | 263 | 25 | 14 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 110 | 92 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 36 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 109 | 248 | 120 | 367 | 11 | 191 | 33 | 14 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 397 | 363 | 78 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 117 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 215 | 277 | 253 | 531 | 39 | 301 | 29 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 359 | 330 | 79 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 95 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 239 | 296 | 303 | 599 | 64 | 316 | 26 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 110 | 92 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 36 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 109 | 248 | 120 | 367 | 11 | 191 | 33 | 14 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 397 | 363 | 78 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 117 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 215 | 277 | 253 | 531 | 39 | 301 | 29 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 359 | 330 | 79 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 95 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 239 | 296 | 303 | 599 | 64 | 316 | 26 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | PIT | 2% | 380 | 349 | 67 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 98 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 193 | 252 | 252 | 504 | 59 | 254 | 26 | 6 | 232 | 43 | -26 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | PIT | 2% | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 251 | 250 | 501 | 58 | 254 | 25 | 0 | 231 | 43 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | PIT | 31% | 256 | 235 | 46 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 65 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 198 | 258 | 269 | 527 | 71 | 257 | 25 | 6 | 242 | 50 | -15 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | PIT | 45% | 302 | 276 | 55 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 76 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 201 | 262 | 281 | 543 | 80 | 258 | 25 | 6 | 248 | 54 | -17 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +7 | -0.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | PIT | 49% | 319 | 291 | 59 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 81 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 202 | 264 | 285 | 549 | 82 | 260 | 25 | 7 | 251 | 56 | -17 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +7 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | PIT | 31% | 79 | 73 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 197 | 257 | 266 | 523 | 69 | 257 | 25 | 6 | 240 | 50 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | PIT | 45% | 135 | 123 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 261 | 277 | 539 | 77 | 258 | 25 | 7 | 246 | 54 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | PIT | 49% | 157 | 144 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 201 | 263 | 281 | 544 | 80 | 260 | 25 | 6 | 249 | 56 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 371 | 340 | 67 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 94 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 197 | 260 | 274 | 534 | 76 | 255 | 25 | 6 | 246 | 55 | -20 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 596 | 118 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 42 | 165 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 198 | 262 | 277 | 538 | 79 | 256 | 25 | 6 | 246 | 55 | -36 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2905 | 2591 | 542 | 52 | 9 | 21 | 233 | 731 | 51 | 119 | 50 | 209 | 287 | 261 | 548 | 51 | 281 | 25 | 8 | 250 | 55 | -63 | +0 | +0 | +12 | +24 | -2.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 580 | 122 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 52 | 164 | 11 | 27 | 11 | 210 | 288 | 264 | 552 | 53 | 282 | 25 | 8 | 250 | 55 | -38 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAltoona Curve · 265 PAwOBA .291 → .257 (−34)K% 22.6% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.64% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 5.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.13% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.986 | ×1.027 | 25.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.986 | ×1.027 | 2.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.986 | ×1.027 | 1.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 2.25% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .291 → .257; ISO .101 → .083; BABIP .310 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 94 PAwOBA .300 → .281 (−19)K% 19.1% → 23.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.15% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 7.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.06% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 34.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 1.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .300 → .281; ISO .012 → .011; BABIP .354 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 397 PAwOBA .282 → .237 (−45)K% 22.4% → 29.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.42% | ÷0.994 | ×1.310 | — | — | 29.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.07% | ÷0.980 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 5.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.27% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 1.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.80% | ÷0.950 | ×0.870 | ×1.049 | ×1.012 | 27.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.86% | ÷0.998 | ×0.780 | ×1.049 | ×1.012 | 3.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.025 | ×0.850 | ×1.049 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.77% | ÷1.048 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.66% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 105, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.
Result: wOBA .282 → .237; ISO .046 → .037; BABIP .315 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ABradenton Marauders · 110 PAwOBA .254 → .198 (−56)K% 23.6% → 33.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.64% | ÷0.975 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 13.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.82% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.95% | ÷0.977 | ×0.920 | ×1.020 | ×1.015 | 16.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.39% | ÷1.124 | ×0.830 | ×1.020 | ×1.015 | 2.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.052 | ×0.910 | ×1.020 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.046 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 95, 2B 125, 3B 110, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .254 → .198; ISO .024 → .017; BABIP .203 → .191. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ABradenton Marauders · 506 PAwOBA .312 → .268 (−44)K% 18.8% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.77% | ÷1.037 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.16% | ÷0.994 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 14.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.57% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 2.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.61% | ÷0.958 | ×0.920 | ×1.003 | ×1.030 | 23.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.12% | ÷0.949 | ×0.830 | ×1.003 | ×1.030 | 2.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.69% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.003 | ×1.030 | 0.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.35% | ÷0.971 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.29% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 92, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .312 → .268; ISO .042 → .038; BABIP .270 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Pirates · 150 PAwOBA .366 → .296 (−70)K% 12.0% → 16.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.00% | ÷1.069 | ×1.440 | — | — | 16.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.33% | ÷0.988 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 7.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 37.27% | ÷1.005 | ×0.820 | ×1.040 | ×1.008 | 31.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.64% | ÷1.027 | ×0.720 | ×1.040 | ×1.008 | 2.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.040 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 101, 2B 105, 3B 100, K 114, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .366 → .296; ISO .031 → .024; BABIP .409 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL PIT Black · 170 PAwOBA .287 → .194 (−93)K% 17.6% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷0.957 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 6.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.21% | ÷1.034 | ×0.680 | ×1.039 | ×1.008 | 19.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.71% | ÷1.060 | ×0.600 | ×1.039 | ×1.008 | 1.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.85% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×1.039 | ×1.008 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.322 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 107, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .287 → .194; ISO .027 → .015; BABIP .305 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .