Jack Winkler

2B Las Vegas Aviators
Age 28 R/R 6'1" / 185 lbs AAA HR -5% Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2030
Overview
AAAROOKIEArb-1FA 2031
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202425AAOAK536.223/.313/.34582837—.171/.243/.262
202526AAAMIA281.225/.303/.33362536—.178/.235/.264
202526MLBMIA16.250/.250/.3750182-0.0
202627AAAOAK454.213/.298/.36114942—.173/.238/.271
2027PROJ10% MLB28MLBOAK16.198/.260/.3030155-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB29MLBOAK74.198/.260/.3021255-0.2
Last 3 seasons WAR -0.0  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2030Service2.000First FA2031Super-2
2027Arb-1$0.2M2028Arb-2$0.2M2029Ext$0.4M2030Ext$0.6M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Max EV61
Chase%48
Whiff%45
Z-Con%44
Speed44
K%41
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%
CompsJacob Hannemann (age 28) · Logan Warmoth (age 28) · Eric Stamets (age 29)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†55
AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .260 / .303
PA16
HR0
K%31
BB%6
BABIP266
ISO67
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -8.4 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-8BATRUN: +0.7 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +0.6 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.30-0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025
CONTACT40
xAVG
100.171
POWER40
Barrel%
518.3
Avg EV
2086.8
Bat Spd
5471.8
EYE45
scouting grade only
SPEED60
Sprint
5527.7
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut   2025
Service   2.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2030
First FA Year   2031
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-1$0.2M———
2028Arb-2$0.2M———
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.9M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202122 AStockton Ports — 6861 9300 5142 22 148235197432 49191 217 209 -6 — — — — — —
202122 ROKACL Athletics — 3128 8210 260 20 286333429762 143348 196 326 42 — — — — — —
202223 A+Lansing Lugnuts — 234206 55914 22376 42 267355379733 112309 169 335 72 — — — — — —
202324 AAMidland RockHounds — 200172 40914 21395 32 233333366700 134275 2010 317 61 — — — — — —
202324 A+Lansing Lugnuts — 300265 671613 29653 193 253333355688 102322 2210 311 47 — — — — — —
202425 AAMidland RockHounds — 536470 1053118 4811713 285 223313345657 121278 229 298 37 — — — — — —
202526 MLBMiami Marlins — 1616 4200 040 10 250250375625 125333 250 274 82 -0 +0 -2 +1 +0 -0.0
202526 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 281249 56906 26792 250 225303333637 108298 289 287 36 — — — — — —
202627 AAALas Vegas Aviators — 454404 8618014 3911210 95 213298361659 149258 259 299 42 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 1616 4200 040 10 250250375625 125333 250 274 71 -1 +0 -2 +1 +0 -0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202122 A MLEStockton Ports — 6863 7200 3192 22 111176143319 32168 284 159 -6 — — — — — —
202122 ROK MLEACL Athletics — 3129 6110 190 20 207233310544 103262 293 230 42 — — — — — —
202223 A+ MLELansing Lugnuts — 234213 49713 15476 42 230299315614 85279 206 274 72 — — — — — —
202324 AA MLEMidland RockHounds — 200179 36813 14485 32 201278307585 106244 247 258 61 — — — — — —
202324 A+ MLELansing Lugnuts — 300274 561312 20883 193 204266281547 77280 297 237 47 — — — — — —
202425 AA MLEMidland RockHounds — 536485 832117 3314713 285 171243262505 91221 276 223 37 — — — — — —
202526 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 1616 4200 040 10 250250375625 125333 250 290 82 -0 +0 -2 +1 +0 -0.0
202526 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 281258 46705 17972 250 178235264498 85251 356 221 36 — — — — — —
202627 AAA MLELas Vegas Aviators — 454417 721409 2613410 95 173238271509 98229 306 231 42 — — — — — —
202122 A MLE2 teams — 9991 14410 5272 42 154214220434 66215 275 181 9 — — — — — —
202122 A RAW2 teams — 9989 17510 7202 42 191265270535 79243 207 246 9 — — — — — —
202223 A+ MLELansing Lugnuts — 234213 49713 15476 42 230299315614 85282 206 274 72 — — — — — —
202223 A+ RAWLansing Lugnuts — 234206 55914 22376 42 267355379733 112309 169 335 72 — — — — — —
202324 A+ MLE2 teams — 500453 912025 341368 225 201269287556 86272 277 245 52 — — — — — —
202324 A+ RAW2 teams — 500437 1072527 501048 225 245333359693 114303 2110 313 52 — — — — — —
202425 AA MLEMidland RockHounds — 536485 832117 3314713 285 171243262505 91227 276 223 37 — — — — — —
202425 AA RAWMidland RockHounds — 536470 1053118 4811713 285 223313345657 121278 229 298 37 — — — — — —
202526 AAA MLE2 teams — 297274 50905 171012 260 182235270506 88262 346 225 38 — — — — — —
202526 AAA RAW2 teams — 297265 601106 26832 260 226300336636 109300 289 287 38 — — — — — —
202627 AAA MLELas Vegas Aviators — 454417 721409 2613410 95 173238271509 98229 306 231 42 — — — — — —
202627 AAA RAWLas Vegas Aviators — 454404 8618014 3911210 95 213298361659 149258 259 299 42 — — — — — —
202122 A MLE2 teams — 9992 14410 5272 42 152214217432 65197 275 181 9 — — — — — —
202223 A+ MLELansing Lugnuts — 234211 49713 15476 42 232299318617 85279 206 274 72 — — — — — —
202324 A+ MLE2 teams — 500454 912025 341368 225 200269286555 86266 277 245 52 — — — — — —
202425 AA MLEMidland RockHounds — 536485 832117 3314713 285 171243262505 91221 276 223 37 — — — — — —
202526 AAA MLE2 teams — 297276 50905 171012 260 181235268504 87255 346 225 38 — — — — — —
202627 AAA MLELas Vegas Aviators — 454415 721409 2613410 95 173238272511 99229 306 231 42 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202425 AA MLEMidland RockHounds — 536485 832117 3314713 285 171243262505 91221 276 223 37 — — — — — —
202526 AAA MLE2 teams — 297276 50905 171012 260 181235268504 87255 346 225 38 — — — — — —
202627 AAA MLELas Vegas Aviators — 454415 721409 2613410 95 173238272511 99229 306 231 42 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202728 MLB MLEOAK 10% 380348 681417 231106 122 192254293548 101257 296 249 55 -20 +2 -1 +1 +8 -0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202728 MLB CTXOAK 10% 1615 3100 150 10 198260303562 105266 316 255 55 -1 +0 -0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202829 MLB MLEOAK 27% 272250 481005 16794 82 192255293548 100257 296 249 55 -15 +1 -2 +1 +6 -0.9
202829 MLB CTXOAK 27% 7469 13301 4211 20 198260302562 104266 285 255 55 -4 +0 -1 +0 +2 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 9085 17501 4251 30 200244294539 94271 284 258 46 -5 +1 -2 +1 +2 -0.3
/ 162G— A+C — 650614 1223607 291817 220 199243292535 93270 284 258 46 -33 +4 -15 +10 +14 -2.0
Career— MLE — 25472325 43591537 15571648 10622 187252278531 91251 286 236 46 -24 +2 -4 +3 +10 -1.4
/ 162G— MLE — 650593 1102319 4018312 276 185251273524 88249 286 236 46 -35 +2 -6 +4 +14 -2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 454 PAwOBA .291 → .231 (−59)K% 24.7% → 29.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.67%÷1.000×1.200——29.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.37%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9925.73%
HBP% /PA2.20%—×0.940—×0.9922.05%
Singles /BIP18.49%÷1.000×0.930×1.004×0.99217.14%
Doubles /BIP6.16%÷1.000×0.830×1.004×0.9925.10%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×1.004×0.9920.00%
Home runs /BIP4.79%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9923.33%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .291 → .231; ISO .149 → .106; BABIP .258 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 281 PAwOBA .284 → .221 (−63)K% 28.1% → 34.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.11%÷0.978×1.200——34.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.25%÷1.027×0.690—×1.0036.23%
HBP% /PA0.71%—×0.940—×1.0030.67%
Singles /BIP24.12%÷1.051×0.930×0.973×1.00320.82%
Doubles /BIP5.29%÷1.023×0.830×0.973×1.0034.19%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970×0.973×1.0030.00%
Home runs /BIP3.53%÷0.903×0.700—×1.0032.75%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 110, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .284 → .221; ISO .108 → .082; BABIP .298 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMidland RockHounds · 536 PAwOBA .292 → .223 (−69)K% 21.8% → 27.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.83%÷0.967×1.220——27.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.77%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9886.07%
HBP% /PA2.43%—×0.870—×0.9882.08%
Singles /BIP18.41%÷1.060×0.920×0.985×0.98815.55%
Doubles /BIP8.78%÷1.170×0.840×0.985×0.9886.14%
Triples /BIP0.28%÷1.150×0.940×0.985×0.9880.23%
Home runs /BIP2.27%÷0.940×0.800—×0.9881.91%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 112, 2B 134, 3B 130, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .292 → .223; ISO .121 → .090; BABIP .278 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 300 PAwOBA .305 → .237 (−68)K% 21.7% → 29.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.67%÷0.938×1.270——29.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.67%÷1.036×0.710—×0.9786.48%
HBP% /PA1.00%—×0.790—×0.9780.77%
Singles /BIP23.50%÷0.991×0.920×0.986×0.97821.03%
Doubles /BIP8.00%÷0.946×0.810×0.986×0.9786.60%
Triples /BIP0.50%÷1.150×0.850×0.986×0.9780.36%
Home runs /BIP1.50%÷1.209×0.800—×0.9780.97%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 88, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .305 → .237; ISO .102 → .073; BABIP .322 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMidland RockHounds · 200 PAwOBA .312 → .258 (−53)K% 19.5% → 24.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.50%÷0.981×1.220——24.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.50%÷1.031×0.700—×0.9987.11%
HBP% /PA2.50%—×0.870—×0.9982.17%
Singles /BIP19.55%÷1.021×0.920×1.013×0.99817.81%
Doubles /BIP6.77%÷1.011×0.840×1.013×0.9985.69%
Triples /BIP0.75%÷1.150×0.940×1.013×0.9980.62%
Home runs /BIP3.01%÷0.957×0.800—×0.9982.51%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .312 → .258; ISO .134 → .112; BABIP .275 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 234 PAwOBA .326 → .274 (−52)K% 15.8% → 19.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.81%÷1.011×1.270——19.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.40%÷1.020×0.710—×0.9886.47%
HBP% /PA2.56%—×0.790—×0.9882.00%
Singles /BIP24.26%÷0.996×0.920×1.010×0.98822.37%
Doubles /BIP5.33%÷0.967×0.810×1.010×0.9884.45%
Triples /BIP0.59%÷1.000×0.850×1.010×0.9880.50%
Home runs /BIP2.37%÷0.944×0.800—×0.9881.98%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 100, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .326 → .274; ISO .112 → .093; BABIP .309 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AStockton Ports · 68 PAwOBA .205 → .159 (−45)K% 20.6% → 27.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.59%÷1.020×1.360——27.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.35%÷1.028×0.690—×0.9904.89%
HBP% /PA2.94%—×0.780—×0.9902.27%
Singles /BIP12.77%÷0.971×0.920×0.969×0.99011.61%
Doubles /BIP6.38%÷0.981×0.830×0.969×0.9905.19%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.902×0.910×0.969×0.9900.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.165×0.800—×0.9900.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 94, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .205 → .159; ISO .049 → .038; BABIP .191 → .168. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Athletics · 31 PAwOBA .328 → .230 (−98)K% 19.4% → 27.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.35%÷1.000×1.440——27.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.45%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9653.86%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9650.00%
Singles /BIP22.73%÷1.000×0.820—×0.96517.98%
Doubles /BIP9.09%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9656.32%
Triples /BIP4.55%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9653.16%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9650.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .328 → .230; ISO .143 → .095; BABIP .348 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).