Tony Thomas
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 28 | AANew Britain R… | 499 | .241/.302/.411 | 12 | 14 | 50 | — | .193/.234/.318 |
| 2015 | 29 | AACWS | 362 | .249/.306/.416 | 9 | 6 | 52 | — | .202/.242/.328 |
| 2016 | 30 | INTLMayos de Navo… | 172 | .284/.361/.419 | 3 | 1 | 116 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 21 | ROK | AZL Cubs | — | 21 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 300 | 412 | 712 | 235 | 231 | 24 | 10 | 298 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A+ | Daytona Cubs | — | 495 | 443 | 118 | 30 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 113 | 3 | 22 | 10 | 266 | 322 | 400 | 721 | 133 | 339 | 23 | 7 | 313 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 498 | 427 | 107 | 24 | 1 | 11 | 50 | 106 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 251 | 344 | 389 | 732 | 138 | 306 | 21 | 10 | 326 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 450 | 402 | 111 | 29 | 11 | 11 | 33 | 100 | 7 | 15 | 2 | 276 | 341 | 485 | 826 | 209 | 338 | 22 | 7 | 356 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 306 | 278 | 59 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 74 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 212 | 277 | 367 | 644 | 155 | 256 | 24 | 7 | 286 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 21 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 300 | 333 | 350 | 683 | 50 | 462 | 33 | 5 | 310 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | INTL | Algodoneros de Guasave | — | 103 | 89 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 225 | 317 | 427 | 744 | 202 | 246 | 20 | 11 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 250 | 223 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 64 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 242 | 313 | 439 | 752 | 197 | 288 | 26 | 9 | 328 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 63 | 60 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 283 | 317 | 417 | 734 | 133 | 395 | 27 | 5 | 324 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 465 | 418 | 92 | 25 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 113 | 8 | 16 | 2 | 220 | 289 | 392 | 681 | 172 | 271 | 24 | 7 | 300 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AA | New Britain Rock Cats | — | 499 | 453 | 109 | 29 | 6 | 12 | 37 | 141 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 241 | 302 | 411 | 713 | 170 | 320 | 28 | 7 | 314 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 362 | 329 | 82 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 103 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 249 | 306 | 416 | 723 | 167 | 335 | 28 | 7 | 317 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 30 | INTL | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 172 | 148 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 43 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 284 | 361 | 419 | 780 | 135 | 375 | 25 | 9 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 21 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 200 | 222 | 422 | 111 | 171 | 33 | 5 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A+ MLE | Daytona Cubs | — | 495 | 453 | 103 | 27 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 160 | 3 | 22 | 10 | 227 | 274 | 340 | 614 | 113 | 320 | 32 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 498 | 448 | 98 | 22 | 1 | 9 | 30 | 129 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 219 | 284 | 333 | 617 | 114 | 275 | 26 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 450 | 416 | 95 | 23 | 9 | 8 | 20 | 127 | 7 | 15 | 2 | 228 | 275 | 385 | 660 | 156 | 299 | 28 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 306 | 284 | 49 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 91 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 173 | 224 | 299 | 524 | 127 | 222 | 30 | 5 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 21 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 250 | 286 | 300 | 586 | 50 | 431 | 43 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 250 | 230 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 78 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 204 | 256 | 348 | 604 | 143 | 259 | 31 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 63 | 61 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 246 | 270 | 361 | 630 | 115 | 366 | 32 | 3 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 465 | 430 | 80 | 20 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 140 | 8 | 16 | 2 | 186 | 239 | 321 | 560 | 135 | 247 | 30 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AA MLE | New Britain Rock Cats | — | 499 | 471 | 91 | 22 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 174 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 193 | 234 | 318 | 552 | 125 | 281 | 35 | 4 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 362 | 341 | 69 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 128 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 202 | 242 | 328 | 571 | 126 | 296 | 35 | 4 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 21 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 200 | 222 | 422 | 111 | 167 | 33 | 5 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 21 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs | — | 21 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 300 | 412 | 712 | 235 | 231 | 24 | 10 | 298 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A+ MLE | Daytona Cubs | — | 495 | 453 | 103 | 27 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 160 | 3 | 22 | 10 | 227 | 274 | 340 | 614 | 113 | 333 | 32 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A+ RAW | Daytona Cubs | — | 495 | 443 | 118 | 30 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 113 | 3 | 22 | 10 | 266 | 322 | 400 | 721 | 133 | 339 | 23 | 7 | 313 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 498 | 448 | 98 | 22 | 1 | 9 | 30 | 129 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 219 | 284 | 333 | 617 | 114 | 283 | 26 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AA RAW | Tennessee Smokies | — | 498 | 427 | 107 | 24 | 1 | 11 | 50 | 106 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 251 | 344 | 389 | 732 | 138 | 306 | 21 | 10 | 326 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 450 | 416 | 95 | 23 | 9 | 8 | 20 | 127 | 7 | 15 | 2 | 228 | 275 | 385 | 660 | 156 | 304 | 28 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | AA RAW | Tennessee Smokies | — | 450 | 402 | 111 | 29 | 11 | 11 | 33 | 100 | 7 | 15 | 2 | 276 | 341 | 485 | 826 | 209 | 338 | 22 | 7 | 356 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 430 | 399 | 71 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 132 | 5 | 17 | 4 | 178 | 228 | 296 | 524 | 118 | 237 | 31 | 5 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 430 | 387 | 85 | 22 | 2 | 12 | 33 | 102 | 5 | 17 | 4 | 220 | 289 | 380 | 669 | 160 | 264 | 24 | 8 | 296 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 250 | 230 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 78 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 204 | 256 | 348 | 604 | 143 | 268 | 31 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AAA RAW | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 250 | 223 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 64 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 242 | 313 | 439 | 752 | 197 | 288 | 26 | 9 | 328 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 528 | 491 | 95 | 23 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 160 | 8 | 18 | 2 | 193 | 243 | 326 | 569 | 132 | 265 | 30 | 5 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 528 | 478 | 109 | 29 | 9 | 11 | 36 | 130 | 8 | 18 | 2 | 228 | 293 | 395 | 688 | 167 | 287 | 25 | 7 | 303 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AA MLE | New Britain Rock Cats | — | 499 | 471 | 91 | 22 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 174 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 193 | 234 | 318 | 552 | 125 | 282 | 35 | 4 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AA RAW | New Britain Rock Cats | — | 499 | 453 | 109 | 29 | 6 | 12 | 37 | 141 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 241 | 302 | 411 | 713 | 170 | 320 | 28 | 7 | 314 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 362 | 341 | 69 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 128 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 202 | 242 | 328 | 571 | 126 | 303 | 35 | 4 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AA RAW | Birmingham Barons | — | 362 | 329 | 82 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 103 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 249 | 306 | 416 | 723 | 167 | 335 | 28 | 7 | 317 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 30 | INTL MLE | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 172 | 148 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 43 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 284 | 361 | 419 | 780 | 135 | 375 | 25 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 30 | INTL RAW | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 172 | 148 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 43 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 284 | 361 | 419 | 780 | 135 | 375 | 25 | 9 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 21 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 200 | 211 | 411 | 105 | 171 | 33 | 5 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A+ MLE | Daytona Cubs | — | 495 | 463 | 103 | 27 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 160 | 3 | 22 | 10 | 222 | 274 | 333 | 606 | 110 | 320 | 32 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 498 | 454 | 98 | 22 | 1 | 9 | 30 | 129 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 216 | 284 | 328 | 612 | 112 | 275 | 26 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 450 | 420 | 95 | 23 | 9 | 8 | 20 | 127 | 7 | 15 | 2 | 226 | 275 | 381 | 656 | 155 | 299 | 28 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 430 | 401 | 71 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 132 | 5 | 17 | 4 | 177 | 228 | 294 | 522 | 117 | 235 | 31 | 5 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 250 | 232 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 78 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 203 | 256 | 345 | 601 | 142 | 259 | 31 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 528 | 491 | 95 | 23 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 160 | 8 | 18 | 2 | 193 | 243 | 326 | 569 | 132 | 261 | 30 | 5 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AA MLE | New Britain Rock Cats | — | 499 | 471 | 91 | 22 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 174 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 193 | 234 | 318 | 552 | 125 | 281 | 35 | 4 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 362 | 341 | 69 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 128 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 202 | 242 | 328 | 571 | 126 | 296 | 35 | 4 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3705 | 3415 | 713 | 171 | 35 | 65 | 188 | 1138 | 46 | 118 | 40 | 209 | 260 | 336 | 596 | 128 | 289 | 31 | 5 | 244 | 51 | -214 | +8 | +0 | +13 | +80 | -11.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 599 | 125 | 30 | 6 | 11 | 33 | 200 | 8 | 21 | 7 | 209 | 259 | 334 | 593 | 125 | 289 | 31 | 5 | 244 | 51 | -38 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AABirmingham Barons · 362 PAwOBA .307 → .245 (−62)K% 28.5% → 35.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.45% | ÷0.981 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.35% | ÷1.019 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.958 | 4.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.83% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.958 | 0.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.68% | ÷1.007 | ×0.920 | ×0.991 | ×0.958 | 18.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.85% | ÷0.875 | ×0.910 | ×0.991 | ×0.958 | 8.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.77% | ÷1.087 | ×0.880 | ×0.991 | ×0.958 | 1.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.98% | ÷1.102 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 2.77% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 101, 2B 75, 3B 117, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .307 → .245; ISO .167 → .130; BABIP .335 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AANew Britain Rock Cats · 499 PAwOBA .308 → .242 (−66)K% 28.3% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.26% | ÷0.989 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.41% | ÷1.155 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 4.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.87% | ÷0.967 | ×0.970 | ×0.957 | ×0.968 | 18.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.29% | ÷0.999 | ×0.860 | ×0.957 | ×0.968 | 7.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.011 | ×0.950 | ×0.957 | ×0.968 | 1.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.956 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 3.04% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 93, 2B 100, 3B 102, K 98, BB 131 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .308 → .242; ISO .170 → .132; BABIP .320 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 465 PAwOBA .294 → .244 (−50)K% 24.3% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.30% | ÷0.989 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.88% | ÷0.975 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 4.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.72% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 1.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.07% | ÷0.980 | ×0.970 | ×0.982 | ×0.978 | 15.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.20% | ÷0.987 | ×0.860 | ×0.982 | ×0.978 | 6.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.30% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | ×0.978 | 2.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.61% | ÷1.026 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 2.68% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 96, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .294 → .244; ISO .172 → .139; BABIP .271 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 63 PAwOBA .315 → .269 (−46)K% 27.0% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.98% | ÷1.018 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷1.069 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 3.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.58% | ÷0.964 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 24.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.30% | ÷1.083 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 7.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.65% | ÷0.957 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 4.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.068 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 93, 2B 117, 3B 91, K 104, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .315 → .269; ISO .133 → .114; BABIP .395 → .366. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 250 PAwOBA .322 → .259 (−64)K% 25.6% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.60% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.40% | ÷0.974 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.40% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.13% | ÷0.975 | ×0.930 | ×0.981 | ×1.018 | 19.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.29% | ÷1.031 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×1.018 | 5.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.26% | ÷0.982 | ×0.970 | ×0.981 | ×1.018 | 1.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.29% | ÷1.280 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 4.20% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 95, 2B 106, 3B 96, K 97, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .322 → .259; ISO .197 → .141; BABIP .288 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 306 PAwOBA .281 → .231 (−50)K% 24.2% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.18% | ÷0.971 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.86% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 4.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.31% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.18% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | ×0.952 | ×1.033 | 14.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.007 | ×0.830 | ×0.952 | ×1.033 | 6.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.49% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.952 | ×1.033 | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.92% | ÷0.955 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 3.56% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 105, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .281 → .231; ISO .155 → .130; BABIP .256 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 21 PAwOBA .302 → .246 (−56)K% 33.3% → 41.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷0.982 | ×1.220 | — | — | 41.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 3.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 38.46% | ÷1.014 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.998 | 36.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.034 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 6.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.055 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 100, K 96, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .302 → .246; ISO .050 → .037; BABIP .462 → .431. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 AATennessee Smokies · 450 PAwOBA .348 → .287 (−61)K% 22.2% → 28.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷0.960 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.048 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 4.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.56% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.87% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.991 | ×1.012 | 18.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.60% | ÷1.126 | ×0.910 | ×0.991 | ×1.012 | 7.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.64% | ÷1.006 | ×0.880 | ×0.991 | ×1.012 | 3.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.64% | ÷1.049 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.81% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 98, 2B 125, 3B 101, K 92, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .348 → .287; ISO .209 → .167; BABIP .338 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .