Oswaldo Linares
C Fort Wayne TinCaps| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | ASD | 219 | .203/.329/.280 | 2 | 0 | 34 | — | .157/.255/.220 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA/A+SD | 187 | .201/.301/.289 | 1 | 2 | 33 | — | .170/.251/.242 |
| 2026 | 23 | AA/A+SD | 168 | .187/.269/.300 | 3 | 1 | 22 | — | .156/.221/.253 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBSD | 1 | .196/.264/.283 | 0 | 0 | 58 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBSD | 49 | .200/.269/.297 | 1 | 1 | 63 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 26 | MLBSD | 98 | .203/.272/.306 | 2 | 1 | 66 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 33 / POW 33
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres | — | 133 | 92 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 207 | 431 | 250 | 681 | 43 | 261 | 17 | 26 | 336 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Padres | — | 183 | 146 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 28 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 274 | 411 | 425 | 836 | 151 | 302 | 15 | 15 | 375 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 197 | 155 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 36 | 56 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 366 | 277 | 643 | 65 | 316 | 28 | 18 | 306 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Padres | — | 61 | 40 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 325 | 557 | 600 | 1.157 | 275 | 379 | 15 | 31 | 504 | 139 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 219 | 182 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 203 | 329 | 280 | 609 | 77 | 254 | 21 | 15 | 286 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 52 | 45 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 200 | 294 | 267 | 561 | 67 | 281 | 25 | 8 | 260 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 135 | 114 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 37 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 202 | 303 | 298 | 601 | 96 | 282 | 27 | 10 | 274 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 23 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 391 | 600 | 991 | 300 | 385 | 26 | 13 | 428 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 145 | 130 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 169 | 250 | 254 | 504 | 85 | 206 | 21 | 8 | 234 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 133 | 104 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 29 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 135 | 308 | 144 | 452 | 10 | 169 | 22 | 17 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 183 | 154 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 35 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 169 | 289 | 253 | 542 | 84 | 188 | 19 | 10 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 197 | 167 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 80 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 168 | 284 | 204 | 487 | 36 | 302 | 41 | 13 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 61 | 47 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 234 | 410 | 447 | 857 | 213 | 288 | 21 | 20 | 374 | 139 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 219 | 191 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 61 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 157 | 255 | 220 | 475 | 63 | 209 | 28 | 11 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 52 | 46 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 196 | 275 | 261 | 535 | 65 | 272 | 29 | 6 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 135 | 119 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 48 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 160 | 242 | 235 | 478 | 76 | 233 | 36 | 7 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 23 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 238 | 304 | 476 | 781 | 238 | 340 | 30 | 9 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 145 | 133 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 143 | 208 | 218 | 426 | 75 | 174 | 27 | 6 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 133 | 104 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 29 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 135 | 308 | 144 | 452 | 10 | 184 | 22 | 17 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Padres | — | 133 | 92 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 207 | 431 | 250 | 681 | 43 | 261 | 17 | 26 | 336 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 183 | 154 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 35 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 169 | 289 | 253 | 542 | 84 | 193 | 19 | 10 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Padres | — | 183 | 146 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 28 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 274 | 411 | 425 | 836 | 151 | 302 | 15 | 15 | 375 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 258 | 214 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 37 | 93 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 187 | 318 | 262 | 579 | 75 | 311 | 36 | 14 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 258 | 195 | 46 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 55 | 65 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 236 | 412 | 344 | 755 | 108 | 331 | 25 | 21 | 353 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 219 | 191 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 61 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 157 | 255 | 220 | 475 | 63 | 214 | 28 | 11 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 219 | 182 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 203 | 329 | 280 | 609 | 77 | 254 | 21 | 15 | 286 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 187 | 165 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 63 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 170 | 251 | 242 | 494 | 73 | 262 | 34 | 6 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 187 | 159 | 32 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 50 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 201 | 301 | 289 | 590 | 88 | 282 | 27 | 9 | 270 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 168 | 154 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 47 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 143 | 210 | 221 | 430 | 78 | 190 | 28 | 7 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 168 | 150 | 28 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 187 | 269 | 300 | 569 | 113 | 227 | 22 | 9 | 261 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 133 | 106 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 29 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 132 | 308 | 142 | 449 | 9 | 169 | 22 | 17 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 183 | 155 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 35 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 168 | 289 | 252 | 541 | 84 | 188 | 19 | 10 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 258 | 215 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 37 | 93 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 186 | 318 | 260 | 578 | 74 | 299 | 36 | 14 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 219 | 192 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 61 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 156 | 255 | 219 | 473 | 62 | 209 | 28 | 11 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 187 | 167 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 63 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 168 | 251 | 240 | 491 | 72 | 244 | 34 | 6 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 168 | 153 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 47 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 144 | 210 | 222 | 432 | 78 | 197 | 28 | 7 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 219 | 192 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 61 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 156 | 255 | 219 | 473 | 62 | 209 | 28 | 11 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 187 | 167 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 63 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 168 | 251 | 240 | 491 | 72 | 244 | 34 | 6 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 168 | 153 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 47 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 144 | 210 | 222 | 432 | 78 | 197 | 28 | 7 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | SD | 0% | 218 | 198 | 39 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 55 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 267 | 289 | 557 | 90 | 262 | 25 | 7 | 254 | 58 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | SD | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 264 | 283 | 547 | 87 | 256 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 58 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | SD | 30% | 163 | 148 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 41 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 204 | 272 | 303 | 575 | 99 | 264 | 25 | 7 | 262 | 63 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | SD | 44% | 222 | 201 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 56 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 207 | 275 | 312 | 587 | 105 | 265 | 25 | 7 | 266 | 66 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | SD | 49% | 253 | 229 | 47 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 63 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 207 | 277 | 314 | 591 | 107 | 266 | 25 | 8 | 268 | 67 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | SD | 52% | 275 | 250 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 69 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 208 | 277 | 314 | 591 | 106 | 266 | 25 | 7 | 268 | 68 | -11 | -0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | SD | 51% | 280 | 254 | 52 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 71 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 207 | 276 | 313 | 589 | 105 | 266 | 25 | 8 | 267 | 67 | -11 | -0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | SD | 30% | 49 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 269 | 297 | 566 | 97 | 258 | 24 | 8 | 258 | 63 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | SD | 44% | 98 | 90 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 272 | 306 | 579 | 103 | 259 | 26 | 7 | 263 | 66 | -4 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | SD | 49% | 124 | 112 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 204 | 273 | 309 | 582 | 105 | 260 | 25 | 7 | 264 | 67 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | SD | 52% | 142 | 128 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 36 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 204 | 274 | 309 | 582 | 105 | 261 | 25 | 8 | 264 | 68 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | SD | 51% | 144 | 130 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 204 | 273 | 307 | 580 | 104 | 260 | 25 | 8 | 264 | 67 | -6 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 557 | 504 | 102 | 21 | 2 | 9 | 42 | 140 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 202 | 274 | 306 | 580 | 103 | 260 | 25 | 8 | 263 | 55 | -22 | -0 | -1 | +10 | +12 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 588 | 120 | 25 | 2 | 11 | 49 | 163 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 204 | 276 | 310 | 585 | 105 | 261 | 25 | 8 | 263 | 55 | -26 | -0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2443 | 2157 | 400 | 83 | 6 | 29 | 221 | 654 | 38 | 28 | 17 | 185 | 273 | 270 | 543 | 84 | 249 | 27 | 9 | 250 | 55 | -53 | -0 | -2 | +23 | +28 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 574 | 107 | 22 | 2 | 8 | 59 | 174 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 186 | 274 | 274 | 547 | 87 | 250 | 27 | 9 | 250 | 55 | -26 | -0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 145 PAwOBA .229 → .178 (−51)K% 21.4% → 27.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.38% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 27.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 5.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.38% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 13.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 3.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.61% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .229 → .178; ISO .085 → .064; BABIP .206 → .174. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AASan Antonio Missions · 23 PAwOBA .416 → .339 (−77)K% 26.1% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.09% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 9.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 13.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 18.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 5.87% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .416 → .339; ISO .300 → .244; BABIP .385 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 135 PAwOBA .271 → .211 (−60)K% 27.4% → 35.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.41% | ÷0.989 | ×1.270 | — | — | 35.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.63% | ÷0.984 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 7.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.96% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 2.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.48% | ÷1.013 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 17.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.79% | ÷1.071 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 5.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.30% | ÷1.120 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.30% | ÷0.941 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.12% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 103, 2B 114, 3B 124, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .271 → .211; ISO .096 → .072; BABIP .282 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AASan Antonio Missions · 52 PAwOBA .254 → .231 (−23)K% 25.0% → 28.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.054 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷1.020 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 5.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.85% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 3.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.75% | ÷0.964 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 18.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.38% | ÷0.963 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 8.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.036 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.950 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 93, 2B 93, 3B 107, K 111, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .254 → .231; ISO .067 → .061; BABIP .281 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ALake Elsinore Storm · 219 PAwOBA .283 → .218 (−65)K% 20.5% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.55% | ÷1.002 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.07% | ÷0.972 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 10.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.46% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.71% | ÷1.036 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 16.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.84% | ÷1.108 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 4.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.108 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.46% | ÷0.953 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.24% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 107, 2B 122, 3B 122, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .283 → .218; ISO .077 → .058; BABIP .254 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ALake Elsinore Storm · 197 PAwOBA .301 → .235 (−66)K% 28.4% → 40.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.43% | ÷0.953 | ×1.360 | — | — | 40.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.27% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 12.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.02% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷0.951 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×1.030 | 26.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.04% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | ×1.030 | 3.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.989 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.02% | ÷1.121 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.48% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 90, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .301 → .235; ISO .065 → .045; BABIP .316 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Padres · 61 PAwOBA .493 → .374 (−119)K% 14.8% → 21.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.75% | ÷0.983 | ×1.440 | — | — | 21.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 31.15% | ÷0.972 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 19.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.28% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.35% | ÷1.006 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 15.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.13% | ÷1.001 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 11.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.931 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.45% | ÷0.912 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 5.49% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 86, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .493 → .374; ISO .275 → .240; BABIP .379 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Padres · 183 PAwOBA .373 → .244 (−128)K% 15.3% → 19.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.30% | ÷0.984 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.75% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 10.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.83% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 2.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.73% | ÷0.994 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 15.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.93% | ÷0.947 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 3.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.24% | ÷0.975 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 2.03% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .373 → .244; ISO .151 → .082; BABIP .302 → .188. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).