Jesus Hernandez

SS Beloit Sky Carp

Age 23 R/R 5'9" / 150 lbs A+ HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2227ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	20	AMIA	323	.218/.326/.302	2	17	44	—	.181/.263/.254
2025	21	A+/AMIA	330	.231/.342/.377	5	21	55	—	.180/.270/.295
2026	22	A+MIA	261	.300/.403/.423	5	22	92	—	.255/.333/.351
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBMIA	1	.187/.271/.272	0	0	61	-0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBMIA	56	.192/.276/.288	1	2	67	-0.0
2029PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBMIA	111	.196/.280/.298	2	4	71	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.2M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Chase%87

K%82

Whiff%80

wRC+76

wOBA75

BB%75

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 2.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 88%

CompsMax George (age 23) · Luke Williams (age 24) · Cooper Bowman (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.187 / .271 / .272

PA1

HR0

K%26

BB%10

BABIP246

ISO95

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	139	118	31	3	0	0	19	20	1	10	4	263	370	288	658	25	313	14	14	311	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	155	133	33	3	2	1	19	20	0	11	2	248	342	323	665	75	278	13	12	302	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	211	168	44	9	1	3	40	37	1	10	2	262	407	381	788	119	315	18	19	361	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	323	275	60	13	2	2	43	74	1	17	4	218	326	302	628	84	287	23	13	290	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	162	135	29	8	0	2	21	40	5	11	4	215	340	319	658	104	290	25	13	308	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	168	146	36	10	4	3	19	42	3	10	0	247	345	432	777	185	327	25	11	346	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	261	220	66	10	1	5	38	47	0	22	6	300	403	423	826	123	359	18	15	370	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	139	124	23	2	0	0	13	25	1	10	4	185	268	202	470	16	221	18	9	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	155	139	26	2	1	1	13	29	0	11	2	187	257	237	494	50	224	19	8	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	211	182	34	6	1	2	26	54	1	10	2	187	292	264	556	77	243	26	12	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	323	287	52	11	2	2	31	98	1	17	4	181	263	254	518	73	256	30	10	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	162	142	24	6	0	2	15	52	5	11	4	169	272	254	525	85	248	32	9	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	168	152	29	8	4	2	13	56	3	10	0	191	268	336	603	145	284	33	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	261	231	59	8	1	4	27	60	0	22	6	255	333	351	684	95	318	23	10	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	139	124	23	2	0	0	13	25	1	10	4	185	268	202	470	16	230	18	9	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	139	118	31	3	0	0	19	20	1	10	4	263	370	288	658	25	313	14	14	311	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	155	139	26	2	1	1	13	29	0	11	2	187	257	237	494	50	223	19	8	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	—	155	133	33	3	2	1	19	20	0	11	2	248	342	323	665	75	278	13	12	302	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	211	182	34	6	1	2	26	54	1	10	2	187	292	264	556	77	250	26	12	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	—	211	168	44	9	1	3	40	37	1	10	2	262	407	381	788	119	315	18	19	361	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	323	287	52	11	2	2	31	98	1	17	4	181	263	254	518	73	263	30	10	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	323	275	60	13	2	2	43	74	1	17	4	218	326	302	628	84	287	23	13	290	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	330	294	53	14	4	4	28	109	8	21	4	180	270	296	566	116	271	33	8	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	330	281	65	18	4	5	40	82	8	21	4	231	342	377	720	146	309	25	12	328	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	261	231	59	8	1	4	27	60	0	22	6	255	333	351	684	95	325	23	10	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	—	261	220	66	10	1	5	38	47	0	22	6	300	403	423	826	123	359	18	15	370	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	139	124	23	2	0	0	13	25	1	10	4	185	268	202	470	16	221	18	9	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	155	141	26	2	1	1	13	29	0	11	2	184	257	234	491	50	224	19	8	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	211	182	34	6	1	2	26	54	1	10	2	187	292	264	556	77	243	26	12	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	323	288	52	11	2	2	31	98	1	17	4	181	263	253	517	73	256	30	10	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	330	291	53	14	4	4	28	109	8	21	4	182	270	299	569	117	266	33	8	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	261	232	59	8	1	4	27	60	0	22	6	254	333	349	682	95	318	23	10	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	323	288	52	11	2	2	31	98	1	17	4	181	263	253	517	73	256	30	10	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	330	291	53	14	4	4	28	109	8	21	4	182	270	299	569	117	266	33	8	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	261	232	59	8	1	4	27	60	0	22	6	254	333	349	682	95	318	23	10	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIA	0%	371	330	64	12	2	5	35	96	3	14	4	193	276	285	561	92	254	26	9	258	61	-17	+1	+0	+4	+8	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIA	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	187	271	272	543	86	246	0	0	251	61	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	30%	186	165	33	6	1	3	18	47	1	7	2	199	282	301	583	103	257	25	10	267	67	-7	+1	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIA	44%	250	222	45	9	1	4	24	63	2	10	2	202	286	312	597	109	259	25	10	272	71	-9	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIA	51%	302	268	55	10	2	6	29	76	2	11	3	205	288	318	606	113	261	25	10	276	73	-10	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	329	292	60	11	2	6	31	83	3	12	3	206	288	320	608	114	262	25	9	277	73	-10	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	341	303	63	12	2	6	32	86	3	11	3	206	288	320	608	114	263	25	9	277	73	-11	+1	-1	+4	+7	0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	338	300	62	12	2	6	32	86	3	9	3	204	285	314	600	110	261	25	9	273	71	-12	+1	-1	+4	+7	-0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	332	296	60	11	2	6	31	86	2	7	2	201	282	307	589	106	260	26	9	269	68	-13	+1	-2	+4	+7	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	30%	56	51	10	2	0	1	5	14	0	2	1	192	276	288	564	96	249	25	9	259	67	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIA	44%	111	98	19	3	1	2	11	28	1	4	1	196	280	298	578	102	251	25	10	265	71	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIA	51%	153	136	28	5	1	3	15	38	1	6	1	198	282	304	585	106	252	25	10	268	73	-5	+1	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	172	153	30	5	1	3	16	43	1	6	2	199	282	306	588	107	253	25	9	269	73	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	182	162	32	6	1	3	17	46	1	6	2	199	282	306	588	107	254	25	9	269	73	-6	+0	-0	+2	+4	0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	178	158	32	6	1	3	17	45	1	5	1	197	279	300	580	103	253	25	10	265	71	-6	+1	-1	+2	+4	-0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	173	154	30	5	1	3	16	45	1	4	1	195	276	293	570	99	251	26	9	261	68	-7	+0	-1	+2	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1025	912	181	32	6	18	97	259	6	33	9	198	280	306	586	107	254	25	9	266	65	-35	+3	-2	+11	+22	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	114	20	4	11	62	164	4	21	6	197	280	303	583	106	253	25	10	266	65	-22	+2	-1	+7	+14	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	3651	3240	652	119	22	52	350	942	28	164	41	201	285	300	584	98	264	26	10	264	65	-79	+7	-4	+24	+48	-0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	116	21	4	9	62	168	5	29	7	201	284	298	582	97	265	26	10	264	65	-23	+2	-1	+7	+14	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 261 PAwOBA .364 → .304 (−60)K% 18.0% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.01%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	22.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.56%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	10.46%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	28.90%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.979	×1.012	26.33%
Doubles /BIP	5.78%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.979	×1.012	4.64%
Triples /BIP	0.58%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.979	×1.012	0.49%
Home runs /BIP	2.89%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.012	2.34%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .364 → .304; ISO .123 → .100; BABIP .359 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AJupiter Hammerheads · 168 PAwOBA .338 → .262 (−76)K% 25.0% → 33.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷1.014	×1.360	—	—	33.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.31%	÷1.018	×0.690	—	×1.015	7.78%
HBP% /PA	1.79%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.41%
Singles /BIP	18.27%	÷1.019	×0.920	×0.950	×1.015	15.91%
Doubles /BIP	9.62%	÷0.947	×0.830	×0.950	×1.015	8.13%
Triples /BIP	3.85%	÷0.900	×0.910	×0.950	×1.015	3.75%
Home runs /BIP	2.88%	÷1.035	×0.800	—	×1.015	2.26%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 104, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 103, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .338 → .262; ISO .185 → .148; BABIP .327 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 162 PAwOBA .299 → .237 (−62)K% 24.7% → 32.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.69%	÷0.972	×1.270	—	—	32.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.35%	÷0.978	×0.710	—	×1.027	9.21%
HBP% /PA	3.09%	—	×0.790	—	×1.027	2.50%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.028	×0.920	×0.950	×1.027	17.46%
Doubles /BIP	8.42%	÷0.961	×0.810	×0.950	×1.027	6.93%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.950	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.11%	÷1.006	×0.800	—	×1.027	1.72%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 94, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .299 → .237; ISO .104 → .081; BABIP .290 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 323 PAwOBA .286 → .233 (−54)K% 22.9% → 30.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.91%	÷1.029	×1.360	—	—	30.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.31%	÷0.993	×0.690	—	×1.030	9.52%
HBP% /PA	0.31%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.25%
Singles /BIP	21.39%	÷1.065	×0.920	×1.015	×1.030	19.32%
Doubles /BIP	6.47%	÷1.032	×0.830	×1.015	×1.030	5.44%
Triples /BIP	1.00%	÷0.960	×0.910	×1.015	×1.030	0.99%
Home runs /BIP	1.00%	÷0.888	×0.800	—	×1.030	0.92%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 113, 2B 106, 3B 92, K 106, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .286 → .233; ISO .084 → .072; BABIP .287 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Marlins · 211 PAwOBA .356 → .257 (−99)K% 17.5% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.54%	÷0.995	×1.440	—	—	25.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.96%	÷0.958	×0.620	—	×1.008	12.36%
HBP% /PA	0.47%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.34%
Singles /BIP	23.66%	÷0.998	×0.820	×0.983	×1.008	19.26%
Doubles /BIP	6.87%	÷1.098	×0.720	×0.983	×1.008	4.46%
Triples /BIP	0.76%	÷1.150	×0.720	×0.983	×1.008	0.47%
Home runs /BIP	2.29%	÷0.995	×0.780	—	×1.008	1.81%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 100, 2B 120, 3B 130, K 99, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .356 → .257; ISO .119 → .084; BABIP .315 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Marlins · 155 PAwOBA .301 → .231 (−70)K% 12.9% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.90%	÷0.981	×1.440	—	—	18.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.26%	÷0.942	×0.620	—	×1.022	8.25%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.89%	÷0.983	×0.820	×0.966	×1.022	19.70%
Doubles /BIP	2.65%	÷1.003	×0.720	×0.966	×1.022	1.88%
Triples /BIP	1.77%	÷1.040	×0.720	×0.966	×1.022	1.21%
Home runs /BIP	0.88%	÷0.852	×0.780	—	×1.022	0.83%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 108, K 96, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .301 → .231; ISO .075 → .058; BABIP .278 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 DSLDSL Marlins · 139 PAwOBA .306 → .215 (−91)K% 14.4% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.39%	÷0.988	×1.220	—	—	17.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.67%	÷1.082	×0.700	—	×1.022	9.05%
HBP% /PA	0.72%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.51%
Singles /BIP	28.57%	÷0.963	×0.680	×0.990	×1.022	20.42%
Doubles /BIP	3.06%	÷0.990	×0.600	×0.990	×1.022	1.88%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.145	×0.600	×0.990	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.399	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 180, 1B 93, 2B 98, 3B 129, K 98, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .306 → .215; ISO .025 → .016; BABIP .313 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dylan Moorelast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,922 PA	2.9	1,922	63	118	206	310	383	+4	+8	6.6	6.6
/162	664	22	41	+1.3	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 7
#2Tim Bogar'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,710 PA	2.6	1,710	24	13	217*	284*	324*	+11	+37	2.1	2.9
/162	664	9	5	+4.2	+14.4	0.8	pk7: 4
#3Tim Cullen'66-'72 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,960 PA	3.0	1,960	9	10	229*	288*	313*	+10	+27	2.7	2.7
/162	664	3	3	+3.6	+9.1	0.9	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Al Weis'62-'71 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,763 PA	2.7	1,763	7	55	223*	283*	300*	+10	+9	-0.2	1.3
/162	664	3	21	+3.8	+3.5	-0.1	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.5	1,026	18	33	205	284	316	+11	+9	0.7	0.7
/162	664	12	21	+7.1	+5.8	0.5	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesus Hernandez (OGILVIE)	23	35	40	55	45	191/274/282	91	254	2	6	26%	9%	61	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Max George 2019 · A	23	36→39	44→45	53→55	44	182/265/298	116	243	11	20	29%	7%	62	-1.4	190/276/301	111	283	11	20	34%	8%	66	-1.1	149/258/287	138	249	17	20	43%	10%	55	-0.8
✕Luke Williams 2021 · AA	24	42→44	42→45	52→65	44	208/270/316	107	274	9	20	27%	7%	65	-1.2	229/287/323	94	314	7	28	27%	7%	74	-0.6	229/291/325	96	311	8	37	27%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Cooper Bowman 2023 · A	23	39→44	43→45	59→60	44	194/276/302	108	285	11	31	34%	9%	66	-1.1	210/284/328	118	287	11	35	29%	8%	74	-0.5	210/283/330	120	279	11	40	27%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Braulio Vasquez 2022 · A	23	41	40	55→65	40	193/274/284	91	302	8	31	36%	8%	61	-1.5	218/287/317	99	301	6	26	28%	7%	73	-0.6	227/297/325	98	303	3	32	24%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Christian Cairo 2024 · A	23	42→49	39→40	51→60	53	197/301/281	84	282	6	16	29%	12%	71	-0.8	218/307/294	76	305	4	26	27%	10%	76	-0.4	219/314/286	67	298	3	31	25%	10%	75	-0.4
✕Felix Valerio 2024 · AA	23	42→49	43→45	51→55	46	208/270/320	112	252	11	19	22%	7%	68	-1.0	210/274/309	99	281	9	14	27%	7%	66	-1.1	194/271/263	69	269	6	16	28%	8%	51	-0.9
✕David Kandilas 2014 · A	23	45→44	39→45	55	45	215/275/304	90	283	7	19	26%	7%	65	-1.2	210/271/308	98	277	7	16	25%	7%	64	-1.3	195/259/302	107	251	7	17	24%	6%	56	-1.2
✕Hayden Cantrelle 2022 · AA	23	34	41→40	54→60	55	164/295/261	97	258	8	24	35%	14%	66	-1.1	191/307/295	104	295	8	20	33%	12%	77	-0.3	192/310/298	105	297	8	21	33%	12%	77	-0.2
✕Connor Kokx 2023 · A	23	43	41→40	48→60	49	207/295/306	98	272	9	14	26%	9%	74	-0.6	211/296/289	78	296	5	24	28%	8%	70	-0.8	203/295/264	61	294	3	34	29%	8%	62	-0.6
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	39→40	49→50	44	178/253/255	77	262	8	14	33%	8%	47	-2.6	205/278/293	88	286	6	12	28%	9%	64	-1.3	205/285/293	88	279	5	13	26%	9%	65	-0.6
✕Clay Fuller 2010 · A	23	43→46	42→45	56→55	46	208/288/316	108	299	9	20	31%	9%	73	-0.6	213/273/328	115	291	12	16	30%	7%	70	-0.8	210/264/327	117	279	14	16	29%	5%	63	-0.8
✕Jeron Williams 2024 · A	23	46	38→50	57→60	50	216/300/293	77	293	6	20	26%	9%	72	-0.7	215/268/325	110	275	9	29	24%	6%	67	-1.1	212/259/325	114	264	9	36	23%	5%	62	-0.6
✕Grae Kessinger 2021 · A	23	43→30	39→45	50	47	208/276/293	85	264	7	12	23%	8%	63	-1.4	192/262/298	106	257	12	15	29%	8%	59	-1.6	186/264/278	92	250	9	8	27%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Sean Jamieson 2013 · A	24	41→44	43→45	53→50	47	201/277/314	113	254	10	15	24%	8%	69	-0.9	225/285/338	113	297	9	10	26%	6%	77	-0.3	233/292/342	109	311	9	9	26%	6%	77	-0.3
✕Mikey Perez 2023 · A	23	41→34	44→45	59→60	43	201/280/320	119	275	10	31	29%	7%	72	-0.7	196/276/308	112	286	12	26	33%	8%	68	-1.0	148/246/242	93	219	13	36	36%	8%	40	-1.2
✕Bryce Arnold 2024 · AA	23	42	40→45	53→50	49	201/284/296	95	272	7	11	27%	9%	68	-1.0	186/276/289	103	283	10	10	35%	9%	64	-1.3	162/262/261	99	250	11	9	36%	9%	52	-1.2
✕Lolo Sanchez 2021 · A	22	45	39→45	54→55	45	215/279/308	93	262	6	21	20%	6%	68	-1.0	214/290/322	108	258	12	18	21%	8%	76	-0.4	204/284/298	95	242	11	17	20%	9%	66	-0.7
✕Michael Siani 2022 · A	23	38→45	39→45	55→60	43	187/258/272	85	276	7	25	33%	8%	52	-2.2	210/281/311	101	279	9	30	26%	8%	69	-0.9	211/284/306	95	276	9	33	25%	9%	67	-0.8
✕Jeremy Rathjen 2014 · A	24	43→40	42→45	51→50	46	210/284/313	103	270	9	17	25%	8%	71	-0.8	205/265/339	134	271	15	11	29%	6%	70	-0.9	193/250/343	150	249	19	7	30%	6%	62	-0.8
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	44	42→45	55	47	215/295/325	110	284	9	14	26%	8%	78	-0.3	222/280/325	103	297	9	9	27%	6%	72	-0.7	218/275/319	102	286	9	8	26%	5%	67	-0.5

Jesus Hernandez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps