Bryce Arnold — OGILVIE

Bryce ArnoldSS Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 26 R/R 5'10" / 175 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .279 / .315

PA250

HR5

K%30

BB%8

ISO121

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	22	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	35	33	5	1	0	0	2	11	0	1	0	152	200	182	382	30	227	31	6	180	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	113	88	19	6	0	2	22	19	3	4	0	216	389	352	742	136	254	17	19	348	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	43	37	11	1	0	0	2	16	2	1	0	297	366	324	690	27	500	37	5	307	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	284	231	45	11	1	6	45	77	7	7	2	195	343	329	672	134	262	27	16	314	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	98	80	15	5	0	2	12	28	4	0	0	188	323	325	648	138	250	29	12	297	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	220	180	46	8	1	9	26	51	11	10	0	256	382	461	844	206	301	23	12	374	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	22	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	35	34	5	1	0	0	1	14	0	1	0	147	171	176	348	29	222	40	3	145	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	113	96	16	5	0	1	14	25	3	4	0	167	292	250	542	83	219	22	12	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	43	38	9	1	0	0	1	22	2	1	0	237	293	263	556	26	460	51	2	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	284	245	37	8	1	5	31	101	7	7	2	151	265	253	518	102	224	36	11	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	98	84	12	4	0	2	8	39	4	0	0	143	250	262	512	119	218	40	8	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	220	189	35	6	1	5	17	72	11	10	0	185	290	307	597	122	246	33	8	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	148	129	21	6	0	1	16	39	3	5	0	163	270	233	503	70	225	26	11	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	148	121	24	7	0	2	24	30	3	5	0	198	345	306	650	107	247	20	16	309	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	327	282	46	9	1	5	33	123	9	8	2	163	272	255	527	92	263	38	10	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	327	268	56	12	1	6	47	93	9	8	2	209	346	328	674	119	292	28	14	313	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	318	272	47	10	1	7	26	111	15	10	0	173	281	294	575	121	252	35	8	253	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A RAW	2 teams	—	318	260	61	13	1	11	38	79	15	10	0	235	364	419	783	185	286	25	12	350	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	148	128	21	6	0	1	16	39	3	5	0	164	270	234	505	70	220	26	11	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	327	282	46	9	1	5	33	123	9	8	2	163	272	255	527	92	255	38	10	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	318	274	47	10	1	7	26	111	15	10	0	172	281	292	573	120	237	35	8	253	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	327	282	46	9	1	5	33	123	9	8	2	163	272	255	527	92	255	38	10	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	318	274	47	10	1	7	26	111	15	10	0	172	281	292	573	120	237	35	8	253	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TOR	0%	368	326	64	13	1	8	31	109	8	7	1	196	281	318	599	121	265	30	8	273	71	-13	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TOR	26%	263	234	46	9	1	6	22	77	5	4	1	198	282	320	602	122	266	29	8	274	72	-9	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	TOR	39%	314	279	55	11	1	7	26	92	6	4	1	199	282	320	602	121	266	29	8	274	72	-11	+0	-1	+3	+7	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	TOR	44%	341	303	60	12	1	7	29	100	6	3	1	199	281	318	600	119	267	29	9	273	71	-12	+0	-1	+4	+7	-0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	TOR	47%	357	318	62	12	1	7	30	104	6	2	1	198	280	316	596	117	266	29	8	271	70	-13	+0	-2	+4	+8	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	TOR	26%	68	61	11	2	0	1	6	20	1	1	0	199	283	321	603	122	267	29	9	275	72	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	TOR	39%	123	110	21	4	0	3	10	36	2	2	0	199	283	321	603	121	267	29	8	275	72	-4	+0	-0	+1	+3	-0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	TOR	44%	151	134	27	5	1	3	13	44	3	2	0	200	282	319	601	120	268	29	9	274	71	-5	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	TOR	47%	169	150	31	6	1	4	14	49	3	1	0	199	281	316	597	117	267	29	8	272	70	-6	+0	-1	+2	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	511	455	90	17	2	11	43	149	9	6	0	198	280	316	597	119	265	29	8	273	64	-18	+1	-2	+5	+11	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	115	22	3	14	55	190	11	8	0	199	281	320	600	121	266	29	8	273	64	-23	+2	-2	+7	+14	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	2318	2039	381	78	7	45	203	720	55	40	7	187	278	298	576	111	261	31	9	262	64	-53	+1	-4	+16	+33	-0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	107	22	2	13	57	202	15	11	2	187	278	301	579	114	260	31	9	262	64	-23	+1	-2	+7	+14	-0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.1	762	16	10	199	279	319	+8	+9	0.4	0.4
/162	664	14	9	+7.1	+7.8	0.3	pk7: 0
#5Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Bryce Arnold (OGILVIE)	26	40	50	50	45	195/279/315	120	265	5	4	30%	8%	71	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Quincy McAfee 2024 · AA	26	38	46→45	46→45	46	196/281/327	130	253	13	9	27%	8%	74	-0.5	203/272/330	127	250	14	11	24%	6%	71	-0.8	170/237/280	109	197	14	12	22%	5%	43	-1.3
✕Maverick Handley 2023 · AA	25	40	45→40	50	45	199/284/317	118	274	12	12	31%	8%	73	-0.6	204/294/293	89	285	8	11	29%	9%	71	-0.8	194/286/264	70	270	4	8	27%	9%	60	-0.6
✕Jeferson Morales 2024 · A	25	40→47	45	51→50	45	202/283/328	127	268	13	10	28%	8%	75	-0.5	225/294/348	123	279	11	8	22%	7%	82	+0.0	227/297/352	126	275	11	7	21%	6%	82	+0.0
✕Connor Kaiser 2023 · AA	26	38	47→45	52→50	42	196/260/323	127	273	15	12	33%	8%	65	-1.2	197/275/307	110	300	10	14	35%	9%	66	-1.1	186/271/290	104	286	8	12	35%	10%	58	-1.0
✕Jacob Buchberger 2024 · AA	26	42→45	44→45	51→50	44	212/270/325	113	272	13	13	27%	7%	68	-1.0	212/275/312	100	295	9	13	29%	8%	67	-1.1	201/268/278	77	290	5	14	30%	8%	53	-1.5
✕Kyle Datres 2022 · A	26	39→43	47→50	54→55	46	199/282/333	135	269	14	18	30%	8%	76	-0.4	213/290/347	134	292	16	23	31%	8%	81	-0.1	204/285/336	132	277	17	26	31%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Brian O'Keefe 2019 · A	26	42	47→50	45→40	47	214/282/353	139	269	14	4	26%	8%	79	-0.2	210/275/344	134	271	16	4	28%	8%	74	-0.5	197/258/354	157	242	18	1	27%	7%	68	-0.6
✕Michael Helman 2022 · A	26	38→42	49→50	52→55	45	200/258/346	147	240	17	14	25%	7%	69	-0.9	218/277/361	143	268	17	24	25%	7%	79	-0.2	215/276/356	141	263	17	28	25%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Braxton Fulford 2024 · AA	25	43→41	46→50	49→50	43	213/294/344	130	292	14	9	30%	8%	82	+0.0	212/286/353	141	292	15	11	31%	7%	81	-0.1	202/279/347	145	279	15	13	31%	7%	75	-0.2
✕Bennett Hostetler 2024 · AA	26	40→38	46→45	49→45	41	204/273/333	129	270	15	7	30%	6%	72	-0.7	198/259/308	110	300	10	13	36%	6%	61	-1.5	174/231/238	64	301	2	19	40%	5%	32	-1.1
✕Jimmy Glowenke 2024 · AA	25	43→38	46→45	49→45	43	212/287/341	128	289	13	5	30%	7%	79	-0.2	201/276/303	102	266	10	8	27%	7%	66	-1.1	163/244/240	77	216	8	6	27%	6%	38	-2.1
✕Kenny Piper 2023 · A	25	41	46→50	50	49	206/297/332	125	281	13	12	30%	10%	80	-0.1	184/260/329	145	253	18	8	34%	7%	67	-1.1	173/251/309	136	241	15	15	34%	8%	57	-0.9
✕Julio E. Rodriguez 2023 · AA	26	43	47→45	49→30	49	217/297/344	127	280	16	6	28%	10%	83	+0.1	201/262/324	123	272	16	4	31%	7%	65	-1.2	178/232/287	109	235	15	1	31%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Corey Smith 2008 · AA	26	43→45	45→50	47→50	43	216/275/339	124	286	13	6	29%	7%	73	-0.6	218/260/365	147	263	18	10	24%	4%	74	-0.6	214/255/361	147	253	18	9	23%	4%	69	-0.9
✕Mike Ahmed 2017 · A	25	43→44	45→50	47→50	44	213/281/336	123	294	13	11	31%	8%	75	-0.5	208/270/323	115	312	12	9	35%	7%	68	-1.0	194/252/293	99	303	10	7	37%	6%	52	-0.8
✕JJ Schwarz 2022 · AA	26	40	43→45	47→30	45	201/266/307	106	274	11	4	30%	8%	62	-1.4	217/284/338	121	301	14	4	30%	8%	76	-0.4	209/280/326	117	287	14	1	31%	9%	70	-0.5
✕Jermaine Palacios 2022 · AA	26	44→50	46→45	47→50	43	220/281/340	120	289	15	16	29%	7%	76	-0.4	215/262/347	132	295	16	12	32%	6%	70	-0.8	205/246/334	129	279	17	11	32%	5%	58	-1.0
✕Sean Jamieson 2014 · A	25	43→44	43→45	50	44	210/276/328	118	277	10	12	27%	7%	71	-0.8	229/287/331	102	310	8	9	27%	6%	76	-0.4	232/290/322	90	317	6	7	27%	6%	71	-0.4
✕Jason Delay 2021 · AA	26	42	44→45	49→40	38	210/261/325	115	286	13	6	31%	5%	65	-1.2	205/253/298	93	291	7	5	30%	5%	55	-2.0	225/284/299	74	296	3	2	23%	6%	66	-0.4
✕Chase Pinder 2022 · AA	26	40	42→45	44→45	46	198/280/299	102	270	11	5	30%	8%	67	-1.1	225/320/359	134	292	13	10	25%	11%	95	+1.0	219/322/357	138	284	14	11	26%	12%	93	+0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps