Julio E. Rodriguez
C Northwest Arkansas Naturals| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 26 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 331 | .233/.319/.438 | 17 | 0 | 64 | — | .178/.245/.315 |
| 2024 | 27 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 142 | .188/.268/.281 | 2 | 0 | 34 | — | .162/.202/.242 |
| 2025 | 28 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 185 | .237/.303/.355 | 3 | 3 | 47 | — | .189/.241/.270 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 30 | MLBKC | 2 | .207/.259/.311 | 0 | 0 | 62 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 31 | MLBKC | 18 | .205/.257/.306 | 0 | 0 | 60 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | — | 170 | 143 | 46 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 322 | 412 | 580 | 993 | 259 | 320 | 11 | 11 | 419 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 201 | 182 | 51 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 280 | 345 | 451 | 796 | 170 | 313 | 15 | 8 | 351 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Peoria Chiefs | — | 306 | 291 | 75 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 289 | 405 | 695 | 148 | 298 | 20 | 4 | 305 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 47 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 255 | 311 | 566 | 89 | 310 | 32 | 4 | 255 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 287 | 268 | 74 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 53 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 276 | 322 | 407 | 728 | 131 | 321 | 18 | 6 | 325 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 48 | 45 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 250 | 200 | 450 | 250 | 19 | 6 | 213 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2020 | 23 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 34 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 235 | 194 | 429 | 32 | 227 | 26 | 9 | 206 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 115 | 107 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 252 | 299 | 551 | 103 | 222 | 20 | 6 | 251 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | — | 22 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 524 | 286 | 810 | 333 | 14 | 23 | 390 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 269 | 218 | 55 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 64 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 252 | 390 | 436 | 825 | 183 | 303 | 24 | 17 | 370 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 44 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 250 | 333 | 583 | 119 | 276 | 27 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 296 | 260 | 58 | 5 | 0 | 16 | 30 | 85 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 313 | 427 | 740 | 204 | 261 | 29 | 10 | 328 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 35 | 32 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 312 | 371 | 531 | 903 | 219 | 360 | 17 | 6 | 396 | 154 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 104 | 97 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 240 | 278 | 519 | 93 | 230 | 21 | 5 | 237 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 38 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 342 | 290 | 632 | 97 | 238 | 24 | 16 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 158 | 144 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 243 | 310 | 361 | 671 | 118 | 288 | 19 | 7 | 305 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 27 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 200 | 259 | 320 | 579 | 120 | 263 | 22 | 4 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals | — | 170 | 149 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 279 | 329 | 608 | 128 | 202 | 14 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK MLE | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 201 | 188 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 265 | 346 | 611 | 128 | 255 | 22 | 5 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 306 | 295 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 230 | 322 | 552 | 115 | 256 | 26 | 3 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 47 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 234 | 289 | 523 | 89 | 297 | 40 | 4 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 287 | 273 | 59 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 74 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 252 | 322 | 574 | 106 | 273 | 26 | 4 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 115 | 109 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 174 | 217 | 248 | 465 | 73 | 211 | 25 | 4 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 22 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 429 | 250 | 679 | 268 | 18 | 14 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 269 | 234 | 51 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 31 | 76 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 218 | 315 | 363 | 678 | 145 | 272 | 28 | 12 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 296 | 270 | 48 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 20 | 110 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 245 | 315 | 560 | 137 | 243 | 37 | 7 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 104 | 99 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 162 | 202 | 242 | 444 | 81 | 204 | 26 | 3 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 158 | 148 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 189 | 241 | 270 | 511 | 81 | 241 | 23 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals | — | 170 | 149 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 279 | 329 | 608 | 128 | 211 | 14 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Cardinals | — | 170 | 143 | 46 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 322 | 412 | 580 | 993 | 259 | 320 | 11 | 11 | 419 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK MLE | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 201 | 188 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 265 | 346 | 611 | 128 | 262 | 22 | 5 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK RAW | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 201 | 182 | 51 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 280 | 345 | 451 | 796 | 170 | 313 | 15 | 8 | 351 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 306 | 295 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 230 | 322 | 552 | 115 | 259 | 26 | 3 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A RAW | Peoria Chiefs | — | 306 | 291 | 75 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 289 | 405 | 695 | 148 | 298 | 20 | 4 | 305 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 382 | 365 | 78 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 14 | 106 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 247 | 318 | 565 | 104 | 278 | 28 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 382 | 358 | 93 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 21 | 77 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 260 | 304 | 369 | 673 | 109 | 310 | 20 | 5 | 302 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 23 | INTL MLE | Leones del Escogido | — | 34 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 235 | 194 | 429 | 32 | 227 | 26 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 23 | INTL RAW | Leones del Escogido | — | 34 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 235 | 194 | 429 | 32 | 227 | 26 | 9 | 206 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 137 | 125 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 184 | 250 | 248 | 498 | 64 | 231 | 24 | 6 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 137 | 121 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 294 | 298 | 592 | 91 | 237 | 19 | 9 | 274 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 313 | 272 | 59 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 89 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 217 | 315 | 357 | 672 | 140 | 280 | 28 | 12 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 313 | 260 | 64 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 49 | 76 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 246 | 370 | 419 | 789 | 173 | 299 | 24 | 16 | 355 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 331 | 302 | 54 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 22 | 123 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 246 | 315 | 561 | 136 | 249 | 37 | 7 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 331 | 292 | 68 | 9 | 0 | 17 | 32 | 91 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 319 | 438 | 758 | 205 | 274 | 27 | 10 | 335 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 142 | 135 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 156 | 197 | 222 | 419 | 67 | 204 | 25 | 3 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 142 | 128 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 268 | 281 | 549 | 94 | 232 | 22 | 8 | 255 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 185 | 173 | 34 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 42 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 197 | 249 | 277 | 526 | 81 | 248 | 23 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 185 | 169 | 40 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 36 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 237 | 303 | 355 | 658 | 118 | 285 | 19 | 6 | 298 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals | — | 170 | 152 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 279 | 322 | 601 | 125 | 202 | 14 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK MLE | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 201 | 187 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 265 | 348 | 613 | 128 | 255 | 22 | 5 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 306 | 294 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 230 | 323 | 553 | 116 | 256 | 26 | 3 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 382 | 363 | 78 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 14 | 106 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 215 | 247 | 320 | 566 | 105 | 276 | 28 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 137 | 125 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 184 | 250 | 248 | 498 | 64 | 220 | 24 | 6 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 313 | 271 | 59 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 89 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 218 | 315 | 358 | 673 | 140 | 272 | 28 | 12 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 331 | 301 | 54 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 22 | 123 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 246 | 316 | 562 | 136 | 243 | 37 | 7 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 142 | 134 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 197 | 224 | 421 | 67 | 204 | 25 | 3 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 185 | 171 | 34 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 42 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 199 | 249 | 281 | 529 | 82 | 241 | 23 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 142 | 134 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 197 | 224 | 421 | 67 | 204 | 25 | 3 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 185 | 171 | 34 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 42 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 199 | 249 | 281 | 529 | 82 | 241 | 23 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | KC | 2% | 208 | 192 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 53 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 209 | 261 | 317 | 578 | 108 | 267 | 25 | 5 | 260 | 62 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | KC | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 259 | 311 | 571 | 104 | 266 | 50 | 0 | 257 | 62 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | KC | 23% | 79 | 74 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 259 | 312 | 571 | 105 | 266 | 25 | 5 | 257 | 60 | -4 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +2 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | KC | 23% | 18 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 257 | 306 | 564 | 101 | 264 | 28 | 6 | 254 | 60 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 18 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 222 | 235 | 458 | 59 | 250 | 28 | 6 | 254 | 53 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 614 | 108 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 181 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 222 | 235 | 456 | 59 | 249 | 28 | 6 | 254 | 53 | -31 | +0 | -23 | +12 | +14 | -2.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2367 | 2190 | 436 | 78 | 5 | 50 | 138 | 626 | 25 | 9 | 0 | 199 | 255 | 308 | 562 | 109 | 253 | 26 | 6 | 246 | 53 | -8 | +1 | -3 | +3 | +4 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 601 | 119 | 21 | 1 | 14 | 38 | 172 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 198 | 254 | 306 | 560 | 108 | 251 | 26 | 6 | 246 | 53 | -30 | +2 | -11 | +12 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 158 PAwOBA .297 → .233 (−64)K% 19.0% → 22.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.99% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.96% | ÷1.059 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 4.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.90% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 1.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.034 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×0.968 | 17.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.02% | ÷0.984 | ×0.840 | ×0.988 | ×0.968 | 5.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.988 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.077 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 1.89% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 104, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .297 → .233; ISO .118 → .089; BABIP .288 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAErie SeaWolves · 104 PAwOBA .231 → .188 (−44)K% 21.2% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.15% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.81% | ÷1.086 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 3.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.92% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 1.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.67% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×0.982 | ×0.978 | 13.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.00% | ÷1.036 | ×0.860 | ×0.982 | ×0.978 | 6.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.945 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.33% | ÷0.941 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 1.08% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 89, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .231 → .188; ISO .093 → .072; BABIP .230 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAErie SeaWolves · 296 PAwOBA .321 → .246 (−75)K% 28.7% → 37.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.72% | ÷0.944 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.14% | ÷1.063 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.14% | ÷1.002 | ×0.970 | ×1.004 | ×0.988 | 20.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.86% | ÷0.924 | ×0.860 | ×1.004 | ×0.988 | 2.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.145 | ×0.950 | ×1.004 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.14% | ÷1.055 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 6.68% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 129, K 89, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .321 → .246; ISO .204 → .142; BABIP .261 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AASpringfield Cardinals · 269 PAwOBA .364 → .296 (−68)K% 23.8% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.79% | ÷1.024 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.47% | ÷1.044 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 11.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.03% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×0.998 | 21.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷0.935 | ×0.840 | ×1.008 | ×0.998 | 4.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.008 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.069 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 5.33% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 105, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .364 → .296; ISO .183 → .147; BABIP .303 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AASpringfield Cardinals · 115 PAwOBA .245 → .205 (−39)K% 20.0% → 25.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.09% | ÷1.020 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 4.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.87% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷1.003 | ×0.940 | ×1.026 | ×1.012 | 18.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.107 | ×0.870 | ×1.026 | ×1.012 | 1.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.973 | ×0.920 | ×1.026 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.85% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 101, 2B 121, 3B 95, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .245 → .205; ISO .103 → .079; BABIP .222 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Cardinals · 22 PAwOBA .401 → .305 (−95)K% 13.6% → 19.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.64% | ÷0.999 | ×1.440 | — | — | 19.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 22.73% | ÷1.007 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 13.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 9.09% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 6.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.36% | ÷0.988 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 28.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.973 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.941 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 98, 2B 95, 3B 88, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .401 → .305; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 287 PAwOBA .314 → .255 (−59)K% 18.5% → 25.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.47% | ÷1.014 | ×1.420 | — | — | 25.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.88% | ÷0.991 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 3.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.65% | ÷1.048 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 20.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.51% | ÷1.047 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 5.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.26% | ÷0.912 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 3.18% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 110, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .314 → .255; ISO .131 → .114; BABIP .321 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AASpringfield Cardinals · 47 PAwOBA .248 → .203 (−46)K% 31.9% → 39.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.91% | ÷0.985 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.26% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 3.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 26.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.070 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 2.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.108 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.108 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 2.51% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 95, 2B 114, 3B 122, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .248 → .203; ISO .089 → .061; BABIP .310 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .