Leury Bonilla
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 28 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 264 | .246/.325/.298 | 2 | 5 | 46 | — | .223/.275/.273 |
| 2014 | 29 | AAASEA | 314 | .234/.292/.320 | 2 | 5 | 39 | — | .213/.252/.294 |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 344 | .251/.306/.330 | 4 | 4 | 47 | — | .220/.259/.285 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2005 | 20 | ROK | AZL Mariners | — | 146 | 125 | 31 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 248 | 319 | 384 | 703 | 136 | 330 | 27 | 7 | 298 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 353 | 325 | 84 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 97 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 258 | 287 | 375 | 662 | 117 | 349 | 27 | 3 | 282 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | A+ | High Desert Mavericks | — | 256 | 226 | 68 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 60 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 301 | 373 | 407 | 780 | 106 | 396 | 23 | 10 | 347 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | ROK | AZL Mariners | — | 25 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 280 | 292 | 572 | 42 | 353 | 28 | 4 | 260 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AA | West Tenn Diamond Jaxx | — | 94 | 85 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 153 | 226 | 224 | 449 | 71 | 190 | 22 | 7 | 210 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A+ | High Desert Mavericks | — | 139 | 129 | 37 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 33 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 287 | 324 | 481 | 804 | 194 | 365 | 24 | 4 | 344 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA | West Tenn Diamond Jaxx | — | 316 | 280 | 75 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 78 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 268 | 337 | 407 | 744 | 139 | 342 | 25 | 8 | 327 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 77 | 73 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 205 | 227 | 205 | 432 | 254 | 18 | 3 | 194 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2011 | 26 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 85 | 73 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 247 | 337 | 329 | 666 | 82 | 305 | 18 | 12 | 299 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | A+ | High Desert Mavericks | — | 138 | 129 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 326 | 351 | 519 | 870 | 194 | 375 | 20 | 3 | 371 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 49 | 47 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 277 | 292 | 468 | 760 | 191 | 300 | 12 | 2 | 324 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 235 | 210 | 54 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 54 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 257 | 319 | 324 | 643 | 67 | 340 | 23 | 8 | 287 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 149 | 130 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 254 | 312 | 331 | 643 | 77 | 304 | 17 | 7 | 278 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 115 | 98 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 235 | 342 | 255 | 597 | 20 | 311 | 21 | 14 | 285 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 314 | 278 | 65 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 64 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 234 | 292 | 320 | 613 | 86 | 296 | 20 | 7 | 268 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 313 | 288 | 72 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 49 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 250 | 303 | 337 | 640 | 87 | 289 | 16 | 6 | 288 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 31 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 333 | 259 | 593 | 368 | 26 | 6 | 273 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2005 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 146 | 129 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 58 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 178 | 232 | 264 | 495 | 85 | 258 | 40 | 4 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 353 | 329 | 70 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 132 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 213 | 234 | 304 | 538 | 91 | 312 | 37 | 2 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 256 | 233 | 59 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 80 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 253 | 310 | 339 | 649 | 86 | 359 | 31 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 25 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 167 | 200 | 208 | 408 | 42 | 274 | 40 | 4 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AA MLE | West Tenn Diamond Jaxx | — | 94 | 87 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 149 | 204 | 218 | 423 | 69 | 183 | 28 | 5 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 139 | 131 | 32 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 44 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 244 | 272 | 405 | 677 | 160 | 325 | 32 | 3 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA MLE | West Tenn Diamond Jaxx | — | 316 | 288 | 68 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 96 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 236 | 288 | 361 | 649 | 125 | 314 | 30 | 5 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 77 | 74 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 189 | 200 | 189 | 389 | 247 | 23 | 1 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2011 | 26 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 85 | 77 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 221 | 277 | 273 | 550 | 52 | 285 | 21 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 138 | 130 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 36 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 254 | 276 | 408 | 684 | 154 | 303 | 26 | 2 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 49 | 47 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 234 | 250 | 404 | 654 | 170 | 270 | 14 | 2 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 235 | 216 | 52 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 68 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 241 | 284 | 292 | 576 | 51 | 327 | 29 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 149 | 134 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 246 | 284 | 321 | 605 | 75 | 286 | 22 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 115 | 104 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 192 | 263 | 212 | 475 | 19 | 267 | 25 | 9 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 314 | 286 | 61 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 81 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 213 | 252 | 294 | 546 | 80 | 268 | 26 | 4 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 313 | 295 | 65 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 60 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 220 | 258 | 292 | 550 | 71 | 265 | 19 | 4 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 31 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 267 | 214 | 481 | 330 | 32 | 3 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2005 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 146 | 129 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 58 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 178 | 232 | 264 | 495 | 85 | 293 | 40 | 4 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2005 | 20 | ROK RAW | AZL Mariners | — | 146 | 125 | 31 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 248 | 319 | 384 | 703 | 136 | 330 | 27 | 7 | 298 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 353 | 329 | 70 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 132 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 213 | 234 | 304 | 538 | 91 | 337 | 37 | 2 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | A RAW | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 353 | 325 | 84 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 97 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 258 | 287 | 375 | 662 | 117 | 349 | 27 | 3 | 282 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 281 | 258 | 62 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 90 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 240 | 292 | 318 | 610 | 78 | 355 | 32 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 281 | 250 | 74 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 67 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 296 | 365 | 396 | 761 | 100 | 392 | 24 | 9 | 339 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 233 | 218 | 43 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 70 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 197 | 236 | 307 | 543 | 110 | 277 | 30 | 4 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 233 | 214 | 50 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 54 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 234 | 284 | 379 | 662 | 145 | 296 | 23 | 6 | 290 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA MLE | West Tenn Diamond Jaxx | — | 316 | 288 | 68 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 96 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 236 | 288 | 361 | 649 | 125 | 326 | 30 | 5 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA RAW | West Tenn Diamond Jaxx | — | 316 | 280 | 75 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 78 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 268 | 337 | 407 | 744 | 139 | 342 | 25 | 8 | 327 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 300 | 281 | 65 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 72 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 231 | 260 | 317 | 577 | 85 | 293 | 24 | 3 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 300 | 275 | 75 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 56 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 273 | 315 | 385 | 701 | 113 | 322 | 19 | 5 | 305 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 284 | 263 | 63 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 75 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 240 | 278 | 312 | 590 | 72 | 326 | 26 | 5 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 284 | 257 | 67 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 60 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 261 | 314 | 350 | 664 | 89 | 332 | 21 | 7 | 293 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 264 | 237 | 52 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 62 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 219 | 275 | 266 | 540 | 46 | 289 | 23 | 7 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 264 | 228 | 56 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 50 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 246 | 325 | 298 | 624 | 53 | 307 | 19 | 10 | 281 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 314 | 286 | 61 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 81 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 213 | 252 | 294 | 546 | 80 | 289 | 26 | 4 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA RAW | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 314 | 278 | 65 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 64 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 234 | 292 | 320 | 613 | 86 | 296 | 20 | 7 | 268 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 344 | 322 | 71 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 70 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 220 | 262 | 286 | 547 | 65 | 273 | 20 | 4 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 344 | 315 | 79 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 57 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 251 | 306 | 330 | 636 | 79 | 295 | 17 | 6 | 286 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2005 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 146 | 136 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 58 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 169 | 232 | 250 | 482 | 81 | 258 | 40 | 4 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 353 | 341 | 70 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 132 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 205 | 234 | 293 | 527 | 88 | 312 | 37 | 2 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 281 | 260 | 62 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 90 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 238 | 292 | 315 | 608 | 77 | 351 | 32 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 233 | 220 | 43 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 70 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 195 | 236 | 305 | 540 | 109 | 268 | 30 | 4 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA MLE | West Tenn Diamond Jaxx | — | 316 | 292 | 68 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 96 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 233 | 288 | 356 | 644 | 123 | 314 | 30 | 5 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 300 | 286 | 65 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 72 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 227 | 260 | 311 | 571 | 84 | 284 | 24 | 3 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 284 | 268 | 63 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 75 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 235 | 278 | 306 | 584 | 71 | 317 | 26 | 5 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 264 | 244 | 52 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 62 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 213 | 275 | 258 | 533 | 45 | 278 | 23 | 7 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 314 | 296 | 61 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 81 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 206 | 252 | 284 | 536 | 78 | 268 | 26 | 4 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 344 | 323 | 71 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 70 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 220 | 262 | 285 | 547 | 65 | 271 | 20 | 4 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2835 | 2611 | 578 | 92 | 20 | 29 | 128 | 806 | 17 | 60 | 52 | 221 | 262 | 305 | 568 | 84 | 306 | 28 | 5 | 244 | 51 | -165 | -9 | +0 | +10 | +61 | -10.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 599 | 133 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 29 | 185 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 222 | 263 | 309 | 572 | 87 | 306 | 28 | 4 | 244 | 51 | -38 | -2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAATacoma Rainiers · 313 PAwOBA .280 → .239 (−41)K% 15.7% → 19.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.65% | ÷1.049 | ×1.290 | — | — | 19.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.39% | ÷1.046 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.972 | 4.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.64% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.972 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.27% | ÷0.995 | ×0.900 | ×1.048 | ×0.972 | 22.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.93% | ÷0.910 | ×0.810 | ×1.048 | ×0.972 | 2.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.26% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.048 | ×0.972 | 1.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.67% | ÷1.127 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.972 | 1.13% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 99, 2B 82, 3B 80, K 110, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.
Result: wOBA .280 → .239; ISO .087 → .069; BABIP .289 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAJackson Generals · 31 PAwOBA .267 → .225 (−42)K% 25.8% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.81% | ÷0.973 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.45% | ÷0.950 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.948 | 4.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.23% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.948 | 2.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.84% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.948 | 33.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.032 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.890 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 95, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 95, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .267 → .225; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .368 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAATacoma Rainiers · 314 PAwOBA .260 → .226 (−34)K% 20.4% → 25.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.38% | ÷1.017 | ×1.290 | — | — | 25.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.69% | ÷1.052 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.982 | 4.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.32% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.982 | 0.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.50% | ÷1.016 | ×0.900 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 19.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.48% | ÷0.937 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 6.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.47% | ÷0.971 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.93% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.982 | 0.74% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 103, 2B 87, 3B 94, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .260 → .226; ISO .086 → .076; BABIP .296 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAATacoma Rainiers · 149 PAwOBA .271 → .248 (−23)K% 17.4% → 21.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.45% | ÷1.030 | ×1.290 | — | — | 21.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.38% | ÷1.049 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 4.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.96% | ÷0.983 | ×0.900 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 24.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.957 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 3.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.92% | ÷0.938 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 1.59% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 97, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 106, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .271 → .248; ISO .077 → .068; BABIP .304 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAJackson Generals · 115 PAwOBA .278 → .221 (−58)K% 20.9% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.87% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.91% | ÷1.020 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 8.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.38% | ÷1.046 | ×0.920 | ×1.010 | ×0.968 | 24.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.065 | ×0.910 | ×1.010 | ×0.968 | 2.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.144 | ×0.880 | ×1.010 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.069 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 109, 2B 113, 3B 129, K 99, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .278 → .221; ISO .020 → .017; BABIP .311 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAJackson Generals · 235 PAwOBA .281 → .248 (−33)K% 23.0% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.98% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.66% | ÷0.997 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 5.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.43% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.85% | ÷0.943 | ×0.920 | ×1.047 | ×0.978 | 28.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.21% | ÷1.228 | ×0.910 | ×1.047 | ×0.978 | 2.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.047 | ×0.978 | 1.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.64% | ÷0.957 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.52% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 89, 2B 146, 3B 130, K 95, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.
Result: wOBA .281 → .248; ISO .067 → .052; BABIP .340 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAATacoma Rainiers · 49 PAwOBA .314 → .275 (−39)K% 12.2% → 15.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.24% | ÷1.042 | ×1.290 | — | — | 15.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.04% | ÷1.061 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 1.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.07% | ÷0.979 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.003 | 15.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.76% | ÷0.936 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.003 | 8.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.44% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.003 | 2.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.44% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 1.98% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 96, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 108, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .314 → .275; ISO .191 → .164; BABIP .300 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 A+High Desert Mavericks · 138 PAwOBA .360 → .281 (−79)K% 19.6% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.57% | ÷0.994 | ×1.340 | — | — | 26.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.90% | ÷1.044 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 1.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.72% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.968 | 0.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.41% | ÷1.077 | ×0.910 | ×1.019 | ×0.968 | 24.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.90% | ÷1.121 | ×0.820 | ×1.019 | ×0.968 | 3.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.98% | ÷1.069 | ×0.760 | ×1.019 | ×0.968 | 0.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.044 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 5.02% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 115, 2B 124, 3B 114, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .360 → .281; ISO .194 → .152; BABIP .375 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).