Brandon Macias
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 27 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 189 | .200/.277/.318 | 4 | 0 | 30 | — | .171/.229/.262 |
| 2017 | 28 | AAABravos de Leon | 246 | .228/.314/.386 | 9 | 2 | 47 | — | .184/.248/.291 |
| 2019 | 30 | AAAPericos de Pu… | 235 | .254/.333/.354 | 5 | 1 | 42 | — | .198/.256/.263 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 22 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 78 | 72 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 264 | 321 | 347 | 668 | 83 | 302 | 12 | 4 | 305 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | ROK | AZL Brewers | — | 129 | 109 | 26 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 239 | 346 | 385 | 732 | 147 | 273 | 16 | 9 | 329 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 560 | 468 | 134 | 35 | 2 | 8 | 58 | 73 | 21 | 11 | 12 | 286 | 389 | 421 | 810 | 135 | 322 | 13 | 10 | 359 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ | Brevard County Manatees | — | 398 | 360 | 75 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 56 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 208 | 269 | 308 | 578 | 100 | 238 | 14 | 5 | 258 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ | Brevard County Manatees | — | 296 | 264 | 67 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 41 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 254 | 315 | 322 | 637 | 68 | 289 | 14 | 7 | 285 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 61 | 56 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 311 | 339 | 651 | 89 | 286 | 11 | 8 | 295 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 113 | 102 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 245 | 312 | 373 | 685 | 127 | 267 | 13 | 8 | 306 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | A+ | Brevard County Manatees | — | 30 | 29 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 345 | 367 | 414 | 780 | 69 | 385 | 10 | 3 | 350 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 68 | 64 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 239 | 312 | 551 | 109 | 208 | 13 | 3 | 244 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 121 | 106 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 198 | 298 | 321 | 618 | 123 | 229 | 17 | 8 | 286 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA | Bravos de Leon | — | 246 | 215 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 24 | 62 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 228 | 314 | 386 | 700 | 158 | 274 | 25 | 10 | 311 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA | Pericos de Puebla | — | 235 | 209 | 53 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 52 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 254 | 333 | 354 | 687 | 100 | 316 | 22 | 8 | 314 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 22 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 78 | 73 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 233 | 282 | 301 | 583 | 68 | 268 | 15 | 3 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Brewers | — | 129 | 114 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 175 | 260 | 289 | 549 | 114 | 201 | 22 | 5 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 560 | 488 | 123 | 31 | 2 | 7 | 38 | 100 | 21 | 11 | 12 | 252 | 333 | 367 | 700 | 115 | 286 | 18 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 398 | 365 | 65 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 82 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 178 | 231 | 266 | 497 | 88 | 214 | 21 | 3 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 296 | 271 | 59 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 62 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 218 | 266 | 284 | 551 | 66 | 258 | 21 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 61 | 58 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 246 | 276 | 522 | 69 | 243 | 15 | 5 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 113 | 105 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 219 | 268 | 314 | 582 | 95 | 249 | 17 | 5 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 30 | 29 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 276 | 300 | 345 | 645 | 69 | 334 | 13 | 3 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 68 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 185 | 209 | 292 | 501 | 108 | 177 | 18 | 1 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 121 | 110 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 164 | 240 | 245 | 485 | 82 | 207 | 21 | 5 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | Bravos de Leon | — | 246 | 223 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 79 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 184 | 248 | 291 | 539 | 108 | 239 | 32 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA MLE | Pericos de Puebla | — | 235 | 217 | 43 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 64 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 198 | 256 | 263 | 519 | 65 | 260 | 27 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 207 | 187 | 36 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 41 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 193 | 263 | 289 | 552 | 96 | 234 | 20 | 4 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 207 | 181 | 45 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 29 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 249 | 337 | 370 | 707 | 122 | 285 | 14 | 7 | 320 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 560 | 488 | 123 | 31 | 2 | 7 | 38 | 100 | 21 | 11 | 12 | 252 | 333 | 367 | 700 | 115 | 301 | 18 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A RAW | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 560 | 468 | 134 | 35 | 2 | 8 | 58 | 73 | 21 | 11 | 12 | 286 | 389 | 421 | 810 | 135 | 322 | 13 | 10 | 359 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 398 | 365 | 65 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 82 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 178 | 231 | 266 | 497 | 88 | 220 | 21 | 3 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ RAW | Brevard County Manatees | — | 398 | 360 | 75 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 56 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 208 | 269 | 308 | 578 | 100 | 238 | 14 | 5 | 258 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 296 | 271 | 59 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 62 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 218 | 266 | 284 | 551 | 66 | 270 | 21 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ RAW | Brevard County Manatees | — | 296 | 264 | 67 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 41 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 254 | 315 | 322 | 637 | 68 | 289 | 14 | 7 | 285 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 204 | 193 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 223 | 261 | 306 | 567 | 83 | 261 | 16 | 4 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 204 | 187 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 262 | 320 | 369 | 689 | 107 | 292 | 12 | 7 | 309 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 189 | 175 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 171 | 229 | 263 | 492 | 91 | 201 | 20 | 4 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 189 | 170 | 34 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 200 | 277 | 318 | 594 | 118 | 221 | 16 | 6 | 271 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | Bravos de Leon | — | 246 | 223 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 79 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 184 | 248 | 291 | 539 | 108 | 250 | 32 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA RAW | Bravos de Leon | — | 246 | 215 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 24 | 62 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 228 | 314 | 386 | 700 | 158 | 274 | 25 | 10 | 311 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA MLE | Pericos de Puebla | — | 235 | 217 | 43 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 64 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 198 | 256 | 263 | 519 | 65 | 267 | 27 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA RAW | Pericos de Puebla | — | 235 | 209 | 53 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 52 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 254 | 333 | 354 | 687 | 100 | 316 | 22 | 8 | 314 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 207 | 187 | 36 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 41 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 193 | 263 | 289 | 552 | 96 | 226 | 20 | 4 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 560 | 496 | 123 | 31 | 2 | 7 | 38 | 100 | 21 | 11 | 12 | 248 | 333 | 361 | 694 | 113 | 286 | 18 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 398 | 370 | 65 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 82 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 176 | 231 | 262 | 493 | 86 | 214 | 21 | 3 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 296 | 276 | 59 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 62 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 214 | 266 | 279 | 545 | 65 | 258 | 21 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 204 | 192 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 224 | 261 | 307 | 568 | 83 | 260 | 16 | 4 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 189 | 174 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 172 | 229 | 264 | 493 | 92 | 196 | 20 | 4 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | Bravos de Leon | — | 246 | 225 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 79 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 182 | 248 | 289 | 537 | 107 | 239 | 32 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA MLE | Pericos de Puebla | — | 235 | 216 | 43 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 64 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 199 | 256 | 264 | 520 | 65 | 260 | 27 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2335 | 2119 | 440 | 99 | 7 | 27 | 117 | 498 | 62 | 37 | 32 | 208 | 269 | 299 | 569 | 92 | 257 | 21 | 5 | 247 | 53 | -130 | -5 | +0 | +8 | +51 | -7.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 123 | 28 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 139 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 208 | 270 | 303 | 574 | 95 | 257 | 21 | 5 | 247 | 53 | -36 | -2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAAPericos de Puebla · 235 PAwOBA .303 → .230 (−73)K% 22.1% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.13% | ÷0.970 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.23% | ÷1.043 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 4.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.55% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 2.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.75% | ÷1.008 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.962 | 22.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.82% | ÷0.964 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.962 | 3.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.18% | ÷1.144 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.962 | 1.87% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 102, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 94, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .303 → .230; ISO .100 → .064; BABIP .316 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAABravos de Leon · 246 PAwOBA .304 → .238 (−66)K% 25.2% → 32.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.20% | ÷0.942 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.35% | ÷0.968 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 6.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.22% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.57% | ÷1.036 | ×0.930 | ×1.015 | ×0.982 | 19.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.58% | ÷0.960 | ×0.830 | ×1.015 | ×0.982 | 3.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.015 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.981 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 4.12% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 107, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 88, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .304 → .238; ISO .158 → .112; BABIP .274 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AABiloxi Shuckers · 121 PAwOBA .279 → .224 (−55)K% 17.4% → 21.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.36% | ÷0.999 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.26% | ÷1.152 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 4.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.13% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 3.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.12% | ÷0.973 | ×0.920 | ×0.995 | ×0.968 | 12.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.24% | ÷0.955 | ×0.910 | ×0.995 | ×0.968 | 7.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.922 | ×0.880 | ×0.995 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.35% | ÷1.243 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 1.47% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 95, 2B 91, 3B 84, K 100, BB 130 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .279 → .224; ISO .123 → .097; BABIP .229 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 68 PAwOBA .238 → .192 (−45)K% 13.2% → 17.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.24% | ÷0.964 | ×1.290 | — | — | 17.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.94% | ÷1.052 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 1.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 1.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.046 | ×0.900 | ×1.025 | ×0.992 | 15.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.82% | ÷1.196 | ×0.810 | ×1.025 | ×0.992 | 1.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.025 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.64% | ÷0.973 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 2.89% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 109, 2B 139, 3B 130, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .238 → .192; ISO .109 → .083; BABIP .208 → .177. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AABiloxi Shuckers · 113 PAwOBA .301 → .260 (−41)K% 13.3% → 16.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.27% | ÷0.973 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.96% | ÷1.018 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 5.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.88% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.54% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 17.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.75% | ÷0.943 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 5.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.15% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 1.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.30% | ÷1.084 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 1.66% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 106, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .301 → .260; ISO .127 → .111; BABIP .267 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 61 PAwOBA .281 → .228 (−53)K% 11.5% → 15.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.48% | ÷0.979 | ×1.290 | — | — | 15.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.56% | ÷1.015 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 4.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.41% | ÷1.044 | ×0.900 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 18.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.12% | ÷1.214 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 4.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 1.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.886 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 109, 2B 143, 3B 130, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .281 → .228; ISO .089 → .064; BABIP .286 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Brevard County Manatees · 30 PAwOBA .341 → .285 (−56)K% 10.0% → 14.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.00% | ÷0.986 | ×1.420 | — | — | 14.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.33% | ÷0.987 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.958 | 2.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷1.057 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.958 | 25.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.911 | ×0.960 | — | ×0.958 | 7.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.887 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 111, 2B 82, 3B 80, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .341 → .285; ISO .069 → .067; BABIP .385 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Brevard County Manatees · 296 PAwOBA .282 → .239 (−43)K% 13.9% → 20.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.85% | ÷0.947 | ×1.420 | — | — | 20.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.76% | ÷1.029 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.968 | 4.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.968 | 1.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.77% | ÷1.024 | ×0.920 | ×1.003 | ×0.968 | 20.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.38% | ÷0.937 | ×0.960 | ×1.003 | ×0.968 | 5.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.003 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.90% | ÷0.954 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 0.80% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 105, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 89, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .282 → .239; ISO .068 → .064; BABIP .289 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).