Hayden Cantrelle
2B Knoxville Smokies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 231 | .268/.380/.428 | 5 | 11 | 84 | — | .223/.314/.351 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA/AACHC | 396 | .235/.359/.339 | 4 | 30 | 58 | — | .197/.290/.267 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA/AACHC | 311 | .220/.352/.337 | 3 | 26 | 52 | — | .182/.277/.275 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 28 | MLBCHC | 3 | .168/.263/.248 | 0 | 0 | 46 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 29 | MLBCHC | 46 | .169/.263/.250 | 0 | 2 | 47 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 43 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 143 | 302 | 257 | 559 | 114 | 217 | 28 | 12 | 271 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 341 | 252 | 44 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 77 | 90 | 7 | 28 | 8 | 175 | 381 | 313 | 694 | 139 | 233 | 26 | 23 | 329 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 110 | 92 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 40 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 185 | 312 | 337 | 649 | 152 | 286 | 36 | 13 | 298 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | — | 41 | 28 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 214 | 450 | 464 | 914 | 250 | 250 | 20 | 29 | 402 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | San Jose Giants | — | 149 | 111 | 31 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 34 | 37 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 279 | 456 | 450 | 906 | 171 | 392 | 25 | 23 | 405 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | ACL Giants Black | — | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 308 | 500 | 538 | 1.038 | 231 | 400 | 25 | 25 | 412 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 357 | 275 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 66 | 75 | 14 | 14 | 1 | 215 | 392 | 305 | 697 | 91 | 279 | 21 | 18 | 334 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 160 | 132 | 36 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 48 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 273 | 396 | 424 | 820 | 152 | 407 | 30 | 14 | 370 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 71 | 62 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 258 | 343 | 435 | 778 | 177 | 378 | 32 | 7 | 343 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 278 | 235 | 55 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 91 | 5 | 19 | 4 | 234 | 341 | 332 | 673 | 98 | 362 | 33 | 12 | 307 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | — | 118 | 92 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 35 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 239 | 402 | 359 | 760 | 120 | 386 | 30 | 20 | 351 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 155 | 131 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 53 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 145 | 273 | 267 | 540 | 122 | 224 | 34 | 14 | 254 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | — | 156 | 124 | 37 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 33 | 3 | 18 | 2 | 298 | 431 | 411 | 843 | 113 | 391 | 21 | 17 | 378 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 43 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 135 | 256 | 243 | 499 | 108 | 209 | 35 | 7 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 341 | 274 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 55 | 121 | 7 | 28 | 8 | 128 | 289 | 219 | 508 | 91 | 188 | 35 | 16 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 110 | 97 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 51 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 134 | 229 | 237 | 466 | 103 | 247 | 46 | 8 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Eugene Emeralds | — | 41 | 31 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 194 | 375 | 419 | 794 | 226 | 216 | 24 | 22 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 149 | 123 | 26 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 22 | 53 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 211 | 340 | 333 | 673 | 122 | 341 | 36 | 15 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Giants Black | — | 20 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 267 | 389 | 467 | 856 | 200 | 308 | 35 | 15 | 349 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 357 | 294 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 47 | 92 | 14 | 14 | 1 | 190 | 330 | 269 | 598 | 78 | 255 | 26 | 13 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 160 | 138 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 58 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 232 | 333 | 348 | 681 | 116 | 376 | 36 | 11 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 71 | 64 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 203 | 271 | 359 | 631 | 156 | 334 | 41 | 4 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 278 | 245 | 49 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 110 | 5 | 19 | 4 | 200 | 282 | 261 | 543 | 61 | 339 | 40 | 8 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 118 | 100 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 43 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 190 | 308 | 280 | 588 | 90 | 330 | 36 | 14 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 155 | 138 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 64 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 116 | 208 | 203 | 411 | 87 | 188 | 41 | 10 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 156 | 133 | 33 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 40 | 3 | 18 | 2 | 248 | 346 | 346 | 692 | 98 | 329 | 26 | 11 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 384 | 310 | 39 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 59 | 136 | 10 | 29 | 9 | 126 | 285 | 219 | 504 | 94 | 197 | 35 | 15 | 240 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 384 | 287 | 49 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 82 | 102 | 10 | 29 | 9 | 171 | 372 | 307 | 679 | 136 | 231 | 27 | 21 | 322 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | 4 teams | — | 320 | 266 | 49 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 43 | 122 | 5 | 19 | 6 | 184 | 309 | 316 | 625 | 132 | 310 | 38 | 13 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A RAW | 4 teams | — | 320 | 244 | 58 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 65 | 90 | 5 | 19 | 6 | 238 | 408 | 414 | 822 | 176 | 340 | 28 | 20 | 368 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 357 | 294 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 47 | 92 | 14 | 14 | 1 | 190 | 330 | 269 | 598 | 78 | 261 | 26 | 13 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 357 | 275 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 66 | 75 | 14 | 14 | 1 | 215 | 392 | 305 | 697 | 91 | 279 | 21 | 18 | 334 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 231 | 202 | 45 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 87 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 223 | 314 | 351 | 666 | 129 | 369 | 38 | 9 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 231 | 194 | 52 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 71 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 268 | 380 | 428 | 808 | 160 | 398 | 31 | 12 | 362 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 396 | 345 | 68 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 153 | 6 | 30 | 5 | 197 | 290 | 267 | 556 | 70 | 346 | 39 | 10 | 255 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 396 | 327 | 77 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 57 | 126 | 6 | 30 | 5 | 235 | 359 | 339 | 698 | 104 | 369 | 32 | 14 | 320 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 311 | 271 | 48 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 104 | 4 | 26 | 6 | 177 | 274 | 262 | 536 | 85 | 275 | 33 | 10 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 311 | 255 | 56 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 48 | 86 | 4 | 26 | 6 | 220 | 352 | 337 | 689 | 118 | 315 | 28 | 15 | 316 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 384 | 312 | 39 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 59 | 136 | 10 | 29 | 9 | 125 | 285 | 218 | 503 | 93 | 190 | 35 | 15 | 240 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | 4 teams | — | 320 | 269 | 49 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 43 | 122 | 5 | 19 | 6 | 182 | 309 | 312 | 621 | 130 | 291 | 38 | 13 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 357 | 293 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 47 | 92 | 14 | 14 | 1 | 191 | 330 | 270 | 599 | 78 | 255 | 26 | 13 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 231 | 202 | 45 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 87 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 223 | 314 | 351 | 666 | 129 | 363 | 38 | 9 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 396 | 348 | 68 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 153 | 6 | 30 | 5 | 195 | 290 | 264 | 554 | 69 | 336 | 39 | 10 | 255 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 311 | 272 | 48 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 104 | 4 | 26 | 6 | 176 | 274 | 261 | 535 | 85 | 259 | 33 | 10 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 231 | 202 | 45 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 87 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 223 | 314 | 351 | 666 | 129 | 363 | 38 | 9 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 396 | 348 | 68 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 153 | 6 | 30 | 5 | 195 | 290 | 264 | 554 | 69 | 336 | 39 | 10 | 255 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 311 | 272 | 48 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 104 | 4 | 26 | 6 | 176 | 274 | 261 | 535 | 85 | 259 | 33 | 10 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | CHC | 2% | 361 | 317 | 53 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 131 | 5 | 19 | 4 | 165 | 261 | 243 | 503 | 77 | 266 | 36 | 10 | 237 | 46 | -23 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | CHC | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 168 | 263 | 248 | 510 | 80 | 270 | 33 | 0 | 239 | 46 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | CHC | 23% | 202 | 177 | 31 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 72 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 167 | 261 | 245 | 505 | 78 | 266 | 36 | 10 | 237 | 47 | -13 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +4 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | CHC | 23% | 46 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 169 | 263 | 250 | 512 | 80 | 270 | 37 | 11 | 240 | 47 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 46 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 150 | 261 | 175 | 436 | 25 | 261 | 37 | 11 | 240 | 61 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 565 | 85 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 240 | 14 | 28 | 0 | 150 | 262 | 175 | 437 | 25 | 262 | 37 | 11 | 240 | 61 | -41 | +6 | -5 | +2 | +14 | -2.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2356 | 2002 | 358 | 69 | 22 | 24 | 275 | 822 | 51 | 146 | 33 | 179 | 294 | 271 | 565 | 92 | 285 | 35 | 12 | 259 | 61 | -23 | +2 | -1 | +1 | +8 | -1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 552 | 99 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 76 | 227 | 14 | 40 | 9 | 179 | 294 | 274 | 568 | 94 | 286 | 35 | 12 | 259 | 61 | -41 | +3 | -3 | +2 | +14 | -2.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 156 PAwOBA .375 → .304 (−71)K% 21.2% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.15% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 10.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.92% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 1.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 26.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 4.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 2.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.10% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.85% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .375 → .304; ISO .113 → .097; BABIP .391 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 155 PAwOBA .248 → .186 (−62)K% 34.2% → 41.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.19% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 41.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 9.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 10.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 6.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 2.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.78% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .248 → .186; ISO .122 → .092; BABIP .224 → .188. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 278 PAwOBA .301 → .248 (−53)K% 32.7% → 39.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.73% | ÷0.989 | ×1.200 | — | — | 39.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.87% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 8.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.80% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.47% | ÷0.949 | ×0.930 | ×0.994 | ×1.003 | 27.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×0.994 | ×1.003 | 5.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.69% | ÷0.939 | ×0.970 | ×0.994 | ×1.003 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷1.125 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.73% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 90, 2B 107, 3B 88, K 98, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .301 → .248; ISO .098 → .069; BABIP .362 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAKnoxville Smokies · 118 PAwOBA .344 → .270 (−74)K% 29.7% → 36.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.66% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.34% | ÷0.988 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 13.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.56% | ÷0.996 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 21.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.77% | ÷0.910 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 8.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 3.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.911 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .344 → .270; ISO .120 → .099; BABIP .386 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 160 PAwOBA .361 → .301 (−60)K% 30.0% → 36.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷0.998 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.37% | ÷0.949 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 10.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.50% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | ×0.995 | ×1.018 | 27.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.962 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×1.018 | 7.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | ×1.018 | 2.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.079 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.36% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .361 → .301; ISO .152 → .117; BABIP .407 → .376. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AATennessee Smokies · 71 PAwOBA .334 → .271 (−64)K% 32.4% → 40.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.39% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.04% | ÷0.959 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 4.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.23% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 3.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.64% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 22.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.059 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.988 | 6.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.56% | ÷0.985 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 2.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.13% | ÷0.854 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.75% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 103, 2B 112, 3B 97, K 95, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .334 → .271; ISO .177 → .148; BABIP .378 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 357 PAwOBA .328 → .275 (−53)K% 21.0% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.01% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.49% | ÷0.985 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 13.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.92% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 3.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.50% | ÷0.978 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 20.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.50% | ÷1.003 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 4.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.50% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.906 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.72% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .328 → .275; ISO .091 → .080; BABIP .279 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ASan Jose Giants · 149 PAwOBA .401 → .306 (−96)K% 24.8% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.83% | ÷0.943 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 22.82% | ÷1.055 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 14.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.34% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.38% | ÷0.983 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 24.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.05% | ÷0.957 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 3.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.76% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 6.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.063 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 1.99% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 97, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 89, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .401 → .306; ISO .171 → .143; BABIP .392 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).