Errol Robinson
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 27 | AASTL | 145 | .269/.400/.328 | 1 | 12 | 73 | — | .234/.324/.289 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA/AASTL | 291 | .227/.321/.290 | 2 | 9 | 40 | — | .189/.259/.234 |
| 2024 | 29 | AAABAL | 171 | .208/.302/.275 | 1 | 12 | 36 | — | .187/.254/.245 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Ogden Raptors | — | 243 | 220 | 62 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 42 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 282 | 339 | 395 | 734 | 114 | 337 | 17 | 7 | 325 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 258 | 227 | 62 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 50 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 273 | 358 | 352 | 710 | 79 | 341 | 19 | 11 | 325 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 76 | 70 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 286 | 342 | 514 | 856 | 229 | 353 | 22 | 7 | 373 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Great Lakes Loons | — | 86 | 77 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 247 | 301 | 455 | 756 | 208 | 286 | 24 | 7 | 320 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 475 | 433 | 107 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 37 | 104 | 3 | 18 | 9 | 247 | 311 | 353 | 664 | 106 | 302 | 22 | 8 | 300 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 55 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 191 | 309 | 255 | 564 | 64 | 290 | 29 | 13 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | — | 214 | 191 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 45 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 220 | 304 | 298 | 602 | 79 | 278 | 21 | 10 | 280 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 177 | 155 | 48 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 35 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 310 | 392 | 400 | 792 | 90 | 381 | 20 | 11 | 359 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 119 | 102 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 176 | 294 | 265 | 559 | 88 | 250 | 28 | 14 | 265 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 104 | 89 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 34 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 213 | 327 | 258 | 585 | 45 | 345 | 33 | 13 | 281 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 145 | 119 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 42 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 269 | 400 | 328 | 728 | 59 | 408 | 29 | 17 | 344 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 148 | 126 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 39 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 222 | 338 | 286 | 624 | 63 | 322 | 26 | 14 | 295 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 143 | 129 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 233 | 303 | 295 | 597 | 62 | 318 | 28 | 7 | 276 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 171 | 149 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 48 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 208 | 302 | 275 | 577 | 67 | 297 | 28 | 12 | 268 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 21 | ROK MLE | Ogden Raptors | — | 243 | 227 | 48 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 61 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 211 | 251 | 286 | 537 | 75 | 270 | 25 | 4 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 258 | 236 | 58 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 64 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 246 | 307 | 305 | 612 | 59 | 330 | 25 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 76 | 72 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 236 | 276 | 417 | 693 | 181 | 307 | 30 | 4 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 86 | 79 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 203 | 241 | 354 | 595 | 152 | 257 | 34 | 5 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 475 | 445 | 96 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 132 | 3 | 18 | 9 | 216 | 262 | 294 | 557 | 79 | 286 | 28 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Dodgers | — | 214 | 199 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 57 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 176 | 234 | 226 | 460 | 50 | 243 | 27 | 6 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 177 | 162 | 42 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 45 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 259 | 318 | 340 | 658 | 80 | 328 | 25 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 119 | 108 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 42 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 157 | 235 | 241 | 476 | 83 | 242 | 35 | 9 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 104 | 93 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 172 | 260 | 204 | 464 | 32 | 293 | 38 | 10 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 145 | 128 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 50 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 234 | 324 | 289 | 613 | 55 | 375 | 34 | 11 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 148 | 133 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 47 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 188 | 270 | 241 | 511 | 53 | 293 | 32 | 9 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 143 | 132 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 49 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 189 | 246 | 227 | 474 | 38 | 282 | 34 | 5 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 171 | 155 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 54 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 187 | 254 | 245 | 500 | 58 | 270 | 32 | 8 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK MLE | Ogden Raptors | — | 243 | 227 | 48 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 61 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 211 | 251 | 286 | 537 | 75 | 281 | 25 | 4 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK RAW | Ogden Raptors | — | 243 | 220 | 62 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 42 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 282 | 339 | 395 | 734 | 114 | 337 | 17 | 7 | 325 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 420 | 387 | 91 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 116 | 2 | 22 | 5 | 235 | 288 | 336 | 624 | 101 | 319 | 28 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 420 | 374 | 101 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 88 | 2 | 22 | 5 | 270 | 344 | 404 | 747 | 134 | 332 | 21 | 10 | 333 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 530 | 496 | 107 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 147 | 4 | 21 | 9 | 216 | 263 | 294 | 558 | 79 | 289 | 28 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 530 | 480 | 116 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 44 | 120 | 4 | 21 | 9 | 242 | 311 | 344 | 654 | 102 | 301 | 23 | 8 | 297 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 391 | 361 | 76 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 102 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 211 | 269 | 274 | 543 | 64 | 281 | 26 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 391 | 346 | 90 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 41 | 80 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 260 | 344 | 344 | 688 | 84 | 324 | 20 | 10 | 316 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 223 | 201 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 82 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 159 | 242 | 214 | 456 | 55 | 263 | 37 | 9 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 223 | 191 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 67 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 194 | 309 | 262 | 571 | 68 | 293 | 30 | 14 | 272 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 145 | 128 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 50 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 234 | 324 | 289 | 613 | 55 | 377 | 34 | 11 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA RAW | Springfield Cardinals | — | 145 | 119 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 42 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 269 | 400 | 328 | 728 | 59 | 408 | 29 | 17 | 344 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 291 | 265 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 97 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 189 | 259 | 234 | 493 | 45 | 292 | 33 | 7 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 291 | 255 | 58 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 79 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 227 | 321 | 290 | 611 | 63 | 320 | 27 | 11 | 286 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 171 | 155 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 54 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 187 | 254 | 245 | 500 | 58 | 277 | 32 | 8 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA RAW | Norfolk Tides | — | 171 | 149 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 48 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 208 | 302 | 275 | 577 | 67 | 297 | 28 | 12 | 268 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK MLE | Ogden Raptors | — | 243 | 229 | 48 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 61 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 210 | 251 | 284 | 535 | 74 | 270 | 25 | 4 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 420 | 388 | 91 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 116 | 2 | 22 | 5 | 235 | 288 | 335 | 624 | 101 | 311 | 28 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 530 | 493 | 107 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 147 | 4 | 21 | 9 | 217 | 263 | 296 | 559 | 79 | 286 | 28 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 391 | 359 | 76 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 102 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 212 | 269 | 276 | 545 | 64 | 281 | 26 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 223 | 199 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 82 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 161 | 242 | 216 | 458 | 55 | 266 | 37 | 9 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 145 | 127 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 50 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 236 | 324 | 291 | 615 | 55 | 375 | 34 | 11 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 291 | 264 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 97 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 189 | 259 | 235 | 493 | 45 | 288 | 33 | 7 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 171 | 155 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 54 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 187 | 254 | 245 | 500 | 58 | 270 | 32 | 8 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 29 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 171 | 155 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 54 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 187 | 254 | 245 | 500 | 58 | 270 | 32 | 8 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2414 | 2220 | 463 | 73 | 9 | 22 | 163 | 709 | 17 | 110 | 34 | 209 | 268 | 279 | 547 | 71 | 294 | 29 | 7 | 244 | 51 | -140 | +8 | +0 | +26 | +52 | -5.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 125 | 20 | 2 | 6 | 44 | 191 | 5 | 30 | 9 | 209 | 269 | 279 | 549 | 70 | 295 | 29 | 7 | 244 | 51 | -38 | +2 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 171 PAwOBA .263 → .221 (−42)K% 28.1% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.07% | ÷1.070 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.70% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 7.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.77% | ÷0.962 | ×0.930 | ×1.005 | ×0.972 | 21.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.93% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×0.972 | 5.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.005 | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.99% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 0.68% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 92, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 114, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .263 → .221; ISO .067 → .053; BABIP .297 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 148 PAwOBA .289 → .237 (−52)K% 26.4% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.35% | ÷0.990 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.19% | ÷1.010 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 9.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.68% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.14% | ÷1.040 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 22.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷0.969 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 6.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.15% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 1.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.955 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .289 → .237; ISO .063 → .055; BABIP .322 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AASpringfield Cardinals · 143 PAwOBA .271 → .215 (−56)K% 28.0% → 34.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.97% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.99% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 4.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.10% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 1.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.21% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×1.016 | ×0.958 | 26.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.25% | ÷1.031 | ×0.840 | ×1.016 | ×0.958 | 1.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.016 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.25% | ÷1.080 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 1.60% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .271 → .215; ISO .062 → .043; BABIP .318 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AASpringfield Cardinals · 145 PAwOBA .336 → .276 (−60)K% 29.0% → 34.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.97% | ÷1.024 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.24% | ÷1.044 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 11.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.69% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.06% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 32.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.19% | ÷0.935 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 4.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.30% | ÷1.069 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.94% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 105, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .336 → .276; ISO .059 → .050; BABIP .408 → .375. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAALouisville Bats · 119 PAwOBA .259 → .208 (−52)K% 27.7% → 35.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.73% | ÷0.949 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.099 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 8.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.39% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | ×1.047 | ×1.003 | 17.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.80% | ÷0.945 | ×0.830 | ×1.047 | ×1.003 | 5.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.45% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.047 | ×1.003 | 1.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.45% | ÷1.088 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.94% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 99, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 90, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.
Result: wOBA .259 → .208; ISO .088 → .073; BABIP .250 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 104 PAwOBA .275 → .214 (−60)K% 32.7% → 38.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.69% | ÷1.040 | ×1.220 | — | — | 38.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.46% | ÷0.936 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.978 | 9.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.96% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.011 | ×0.940 | ×0.977 | ×0.978 | 24.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.27% | ÷1.183 | ×0.870 | ×0.977 | ×0.978 | 5.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.912 | ×0.920 | ×0.977 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.950 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 102, 2B 137, 3B 82, K 108, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .275 → .214; ISO .045 → .031; BABIP .345 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 214 PAwOBA .267 → .219 (−48)K% 21.0% → 26.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.03% | ÷1.014 | ×1.290 | — | — | 26.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.41% | ÷0.993 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 6.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.23% | ÷1.048 | ×0.900 | ×1.005 | ×1.033 | 18.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.16% | ÷1.012 | ×0.810 | ×1.005 | ×1.033 | 5.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.045 | ×0.810 | ×1.005 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.37% | ÷1.073 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 1.03% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 110, 2B 102, 3B 109, K 103, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .267 → .219; ISO .079 → .061; BABIP .278 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AATulsa Drillers · 177 PAwOBA .350 → .284 (−66)K% 19.8% → 25.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.77% | ÷0.954 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.73% | ÷1.063 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 29.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.048 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 3.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.50% | ÷0.909 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.19% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 110, 3B 85, K 91, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .350 → .284; ISO .090 → .075; BABIP .381 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).