Nick Heath
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 26 | MLBKC | 18 | .154/.294/.231 | 0 | 2 | 49 | -0.1 | ||
| 2021 | 27 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 250 | .242/.337/.414 | 5 | 20 | 62 | — | .197/.276/.315 | |
| 2021 | 27 | MLBARI | 39 | .143/.231/.171 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -0.2 | ||
| 2022 | 28 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 65 | .153/.206/.271 | 2 | 1 | 3 | — | .138/.138/.241 | |
| 2023 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 22 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 256 | 230 | 67 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 61 | 1 | 36 | 10 | 291 | 353 | 387 | 740 | 96 | 385 | 24 | 8 | 329 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 248 | 224 | 56 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 59 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 250 | 311 | 295 | 606 | 45 | 333 | 24 | 8 | 276 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | ROK | AZL Royals | — | 19 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 250 | 368 | 312 | 681 | 62 | 286 | 11 | 16 | 321 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 125 | 105 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 257 | 339 | 343 | 682 | 86 | 370 | 26 | 10 | 294 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 237 | 194 | 55 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 35 | 65 | 2 | 29 | 9 | 284 | 398 | 366 | 764 | 82 | 414 | 27 | 15 | 345 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 85 | 74 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 18 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 351 | 435 | 459 | 895 | 108 | 464 | 21 | 12 | 402 | 158 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 97 | 78 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 27 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 256 | 396 | 410 | 806 | 154 | 360 | 28 | 18 | 364 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 375 | 330 | 84 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 39 | 116 | 0 | 50 | 9 | 255 | 333 | 382 | 715 | 127 | 373 | 31 | 10 | 317 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | INTL | Tigres del Licey | — | 123 | 103 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 37 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 252 | 347 | 359 | 707 | 107 | 362 | 30 | 12 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | — | 18 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 154 | 294 | 231 | 525 | 77 | 286 | 33 | 11 | 240 | 49 | -1 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 39 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 143 | 231 | 171 | 402 | 29 | 250 | 38 | 10 | 197 | 5 | -4 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 229 | 196 | 49 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 77 | 4 | 19 | 5 | 250 | 347 | 423 | 770 | 173 | 373 | 34 | 11 | 339 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | INTL | Tigres del Licey | — | 21 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 238 | 316 | 554 | 158 | 250 | 33 | 10 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 29 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 207 | 207 | 414 | 621 | 207 | 235 | 34 | 0 | 268 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | INTL | Sultanes de Monterrey | — | 36 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 100 | 206 | 133 | 339 | 33 | 150 | 28 | 11 | 163 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 57 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 146 | 250 | 188 | 438 | 42 | 259 | 37 | 11 | 211 | 29 | -5 | -1 | +2 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 22 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 256 | 239 | 49 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 88 | 1 | 36 | 10 | 205 | 246 | 264 | 510 | 59 | 304 | 34 | 5 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 248 | 231 | 49 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 84 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 212 | 254 | 251 | 505 | 39 | 316 | 34 | 5 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 19 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 176 | 263 | 235 | 498 | 59 | 217 | 16 | 11 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 125 | 109 | 25 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 229 | 288 | 303 | 591 | 73 | 340 | 33 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 237 | 209 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 91 | 2 | 29 | 9 | 239 | 312 | 311 | 623 | 72 | 385 | 38 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 97 | 83 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 36 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 193 | 302 | 289 | 591 | 96 | 313 | 37 | 12 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 375 | 342 | 64 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 147 | 0 | 50 | 9 | 187 | 247 | 284 | 530 | 96 | 297 | 39 | 7 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB MLE | Kansas City Royals | — | 18 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 143 | 294 | 214 | 508 | 71 | 286 | 33 | 11 | 241 | 49 | -1 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB MLE | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 39 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 139 | 205 | 167 | 372 | 28 | 250 | 38 | 8 | 175 | 5 | -4 | -1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 229 | 203 | 40 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 93 | 4 | 19 | 5 | 197 | 276 | 315 | 591 | 118 | 314 | 41 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 29 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 138 | 138 | 241 | 379 | 103 | 203 | 41 | 0 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 256 | 239 | 49 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 88 | 1 | 36 | 10 | 205 | 246 | 264 | 510 | 59 | 316 | 34 | 5 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK RAW | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 256 | 230 | 67 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 61 | 1 | 36 | 10 | 291 | 353 | 387 | 740 | 96 | 385 | 24 | 8 | 329 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 267 | 248 | 52 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 86 | 1 | 24 | 8 | 210 | 255 | 246 | 501 | 36 | 315 | 32 | 5 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 267 | 240 | 60 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 61 | 1 | 24 | 8 | 250 | 316 | 296 | 611 | 46 | 330 | 23 | 8 | 279 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 447 | 395 | 93 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 36 | 164 | 3 | 51 | 13 | 235 | 304 | 311 | 616 | 76 | 391 | 37 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 447 | 373 | 108 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 58 | 116 | 3 | 51 | 13 | 290 | 389 | 378 | 767 | 88 | 412 | 26 | 13 | 342 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 595 | 533 | 102 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 49 | 231 | 1 | 76 | 14 | 191 | 261 | 293 | 553 | 101 | 313 | 39 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 595 | 511 | 130 | 18 | 10 | 9 | 71 | 180 | 1 | 76 | 14 | 254 | 346 | 382 | 728 | 127 | 369 | 30 | 12 | 323 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB MLE | Kansas City Royals | — | 18 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 143 | 294 | 214 | 508 | 71 | 250 | 33 | 11 | 241 | 49 | -1 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB RAW | Kansas City Royals | — | 18 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 154 | 294 | 231 | 525 | 77 | 286 | 33 | 11 | 240 | 49 | -1 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 289 | 259 | 48 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 117 | 4 | 20 | 7 | 185 | 260 | 293 | 553 | 108 | 310 | 40 | 8 | 249 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 289 | 250 | 57 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 31 | 99 | 4 | 20 | 7 | 228 | 323 | 380 | 703 | 152 | 347 | 34 | 11 | 313 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 65 | 63 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 159 | 159 | 302 | 460 | 143 | 212 | 42 | 0 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | INTL RAW | 2 teams | — | 65 | 59 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 153 | 206 | 271 | 478 | 119 | 189 | 31 | 6 | 210 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 256 | 241 | 49 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 88 | 1 | 36 | 10 | 203 | 246 | 261 | 507 | 58 | 304 | 34 | 5 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 267 | 250 | 52 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 86 | 1 | 24 | 8 | 208 | 255 | 244 | 499 | 36 | 309 | 32 | 5 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 447 | 405 | 93 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 36 | 164 | 3 | 51 | 13 | 230 | 304 | 304 | 608 | 74 | 369 | 37 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 595 | 540 | 102 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 49 | 231 | 1 | 76 | 14 | 189 | 261 | 289 | 550 | 100 | 300 | 39 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB MLE | Kansas City Royals | — | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 133 | 294 | 200 | 494 | 67 | 286 | 33 | 11 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 289 | 261 | 48 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 117 | 4 | 20 | 7 | 184 | 260 | 291 | 551 | 107 | 305 | 40 | 8 | 249 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 65 | 65 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 154 | 159 | 292 | 451 | 138 | 203 | 42 | 0 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 57 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 146 | 250 | 188 | 438 | 42 | 259 | 37 | 11 | 211 | 50 | -5 | -1 | +2 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 547 | 80 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 68 | 239 | 11 | 23 | 46 | 146 | 249 | 188 | 437 | 42 | 260 | 37 | 10 | 211 | 50 | -55 | -14 | +19 | +13 | +14 | -2.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1937 | 1751 | 356 | 45 | 20 | 20 | 135 | 719 | 11 | 210 | 56 | 203 | 265 | 286 | 551 | 83 | 327 | 37 | 7 | 241 | 50 | -5 | -1 | +2 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 588 | 120 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 45 | 241 | 4 | 70 | 19 | 204 | 265 | 289 | 554 | 85 | 328 | 37 | 7 | 241 | 50 | -55 | -14 | +19 | +13 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAAReno Aces · 29 PAwOBA .260 → .185 (−74)K% 34.5% → 41.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.48% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 41.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.020 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.982 | 18.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.100 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.53% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 7.50% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 105, 2B 99, 3B 120, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .260 → .185; ISO .207 → .132; BABIP .235 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAReno Aces · 229 PAwOBA .336 → .261 (−75)K% 33.6% → 40.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.62% | ÷0.991 | ×1.200 | — | — | 40.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.92% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.75% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.21% | ÷1.047 | ×0.930 | ×1.005 | ×0.992 | 22.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.56% | ÷1.096 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×0.992 | 5.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.20% | ÷1.113 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×0.992 | 3.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.20% | ÷0.958 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 3.05% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 109, 2B 119, 3B 123, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .336 → .261; ISO .173 → .127; BABIP .373 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 375 PAwOBA .310 → .231 (−79)K% 30.9% → 39.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.93% | ÷0.962 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.40% | ÷1.001 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 7.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.50% | ÷1.083 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 22.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.67% | ÷0.986 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 3.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.27% | ÷1.091 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 2.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.80% | ÷0.901 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.46% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 117, 2B 97, 3B 118, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .310 → .231; ISO .127 → .100; BABIP .373 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 97 PAwOBA .359 → .277 (−82)K% 27.8% → 37.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.84% | ÷0.971 | ×1.290 | — | — | 36.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.53% | ÷1.065 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 11.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.49% | ÷1.024 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.018 | 22.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.84% | ÷0.973 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.018 | 6.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.96% | ÷1.038 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.018 | 1.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.92% | ÷1.023 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 3.04% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 105, 2B 95, 3B 108, K 94, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .359 → .277; ISO .154 → .118; BABIP .360 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 237 PAwOBA .338 → .271 (−67)K% 27.4% → 38.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.43% | ÷1.010 | ×1.420 | — | — | 38.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.77% | ÷1.077 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 8.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.84% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.11% | ÷1.021 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 32.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.20% | ÷1.005 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 5.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷0.965 | ×0.800 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.55% | ÷0.773 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 1.77% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 55, 1B 104, 2B 101, 3B 93, K 102, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .338 → .271; ISO .082 → .076; BABIP .414 → .385. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 125 PAwOBA .289 → .257 (−32)K% 26.4% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.40% | ÷0.979 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.40% | ÷1.049 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.17% | ÷1.046 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 26.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.113 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 3.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.956 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 4.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.008 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 109, 2B 123, 3B 91, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .289 → .257; ISO .086 → .085; BABIP .370 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 248 PAwOBA .270 → .224 (−47)K% 23.8% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.79% | ÷1.002 | ×1.420 | — | — | 33.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.66% | ÷0.979 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 4.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.40% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.09% | ÷1.017 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 27.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.24% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 3.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.025 | ×0.800 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.61% | ÷0.810 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 0.67% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 62, 1B 103, 2B 96, 3B 105, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .270 → .224; ISO .045 → .039; BABIP .333 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKAZL Royals · 19 PAwOBA .313 → .222 (−91)K% 10.5% → 15.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.53% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 15.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 9.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 16.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 4.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .313 → .222; ISO .062 → .044; BABIP .286 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .