J.T. Arruda — OGILVIE

J.T. ArrudaSS Arkansas Travelers

Age 28 S/R 5'10" / 180 lbs AA HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION220 act + 146 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .275 / .273

PA146

HR2

SB8

K%33

BB%9

BABIP290

ISO76

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A+	2 teams	—	350	320	52	11	3	2	28	118	1	14	2	163	232	234	466	72	249	34	8	216	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	2 teams	—	350	303	63	13	3	3	45	81	1	14	2	208	312	300	613	92	273	23	13	285	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	210	181	42	8	3	3	24	69	0	17	3	232	322	359	681	127	348	33	11	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	210	170	47	9	3	4	35	45	0	17	3	276	400	435	835	159	347	21	17	368	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	458	401	74	11	3	4	49	151	4	31	8	185	280	257	537	72	282	33	11	249	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	458	376	85	14	3	6	74	118	4	31	8	226	359	327	686	101	311	26	16	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	442	402	80	19	3	3	26	118	4	9	2	199	255	284	538	85	271	27	6	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	442	387	85	20	3	3	41	93	4	9	2	220	301	310	611	90	279	21	9	275	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	2 teams	—	235	216	48	5	1	6	16	63	2	15	0	222	282	338	620	116	286	27	7	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	2 teams	—	235	210	53	6	1	7	22	54	2	15	0	252	329	390	720	138	309	23	9	323	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	AA	SEA	—	220	194	40	3	0	4	24	77	0	20	2	206	294	284	577	77	316	35	11	267	63	-9	+3	+0	+2	+6	0.3
YTD	28	AA	SEA	—	220	183	45	4	0	5	35	60	0	20	2	246	367	350	717	104	336	27	16	330	110	+3	+3	+0	+2	+6	1.5
ROS	28	AA	SEA	2%	146	131	26	4	0	2	13	48	1	8	1	197	275	273	548	76	295	33	9	262	58	-7	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.0
ROS	28	MLB	SEA	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						292	33	0	256	54	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	28	AA	SEA	—	223	197	40	3	0	4	24	78	0	20	2	203	290	279	569	76	310	35	11	267	62	-9	+3	+0	+2	+6	0.2
TOT	28	AA	SEA	—	366	325	66	7	0	6	37	125	1	28	3	203	286	279	565	77	305	34	10	265	61	-16	+4	+0	+4	+10	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	SEA	23%	273	246	52	8	1	5	24	87	1	12	1	211	284	313	597	102	296	32	9	269	64	-11	+2	-1	+3	+8	0.0
2028	30	MLB	SEA	35%	308	276	58	9	1	6	27	96	2	12	1	210	285	315	600	105	295	31	9	270	65	-12	+2	-2	+3	+9	-0.0
2027	29	MLB	SEA	23%	62	57	12	2	0	1	5	20	0	3	0	211	274	298	572	88	294	32	8	262	59	-3	+1	-0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	30	MLB	SEA	35%	107	96	20	3	0	2	9	33	1	4	0	208	283	302	585	94	293	31	8	264	60	-5	+1	-1	+1	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	172	156	32	5	0	3	14	54	1	7	0	205	275	295	570	90	290	31	8	263	60	-8	+1	-1	+2	+5	-0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	121	19	0	11	53	204	4	26	0	205	276	293	569	88	290	31	8	263	60	-30	+5	-4	+7	+18	-0.3
Career	—			—	2422	2173	432	75	15	31	207	750	15	118	18	199	273	290	563	91	285	31	9	254	52	-130	+16	-3	+26	+69	-2.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	115	20	4	8	56	201	4	32	5	197	272	286	559	89	284	31	9	254	52	-35	+4	-1	+7	+18	-0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	184	167	31	8	1	2	16	49	0	5	2	186	257	281	538	96	248	27	9	246	47	-11	+0	—	—	+5	-0.6
2021	23	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	166	136	32	5	2	1	29	32	1	9	0	235	373	324	697	88	301	19	17	328	109	+2	+2	—	—	+5	0.8
2022	24	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	210	170	47	9	3	4	35	45	0	17	3	276	400	435	835	159	347	21	17	368	139	+9	+2	—	—	+6	1.8
2023	25	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	458	376	85	14	3	6	74	118	4	31	8	226	359	327	686	101	311	26	16	319	102	+1	+3	—	—	+13	1.7
2024	26	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	442	387	85	20	3	3	41	93	4	9	2	220	301	310	611	90	279	21	9	275	69	-16	+1	—	—	+13	-0.2
2025	27	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	199	176	44	4	1	5	21	43	1	13	0	250	333	369	703	119	305	22	11	318	102	+0	+3	—	—	+6	0.9
2025	27	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	36	34	9	2	0	2	1	11	1	2	0	265	306	500	806	235	333	31	3	352	128	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
J.T. Arruda (OGILVIE)	28	50	45	60	50	203/286/279	77	305	6	28	34%	10%	61	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Pedro Florimón 2015 · MLB	28	43→52	41→45	54→55	42	211/263/312	101	283	8	19	28%	6%	56	-1.3	213/263/321	108	305	9	18	31%	6%	59	-1.1	219/275/335	116	325	10	11	34%	6%	66	-0.3
✕Ben DeLuzio 2023 · MLB	28	45→49	42→45	59→60	40	217/273/330	112	295	9	29	29%	6%	66	-0.6	207/268/318	111	304	11	20	33%	6%	62	-0.9	148/223/226	79	244	8	18	40%	7%	18	-1.1
✕Matthew Batten 2023 · MLB	28	44→51	40	55	45	213/280/298	85	298	8	23	30%	8%	61	-1.0	197/266/297	100	272	10	22	29%	8%	56	-1.3	182/249/278	96	248	10	22	30%	7%	41	-2.0
✕Kaleb Cowart 2019 · MLB	27	44→52	44→45	53→50	43	217/268/343	126	279	11	16	26%	6%	68	-0.5	215/262/336	121	274	11	10	25%	6%	63	-0.9	207/250/317	110	260	10	6	24%	5%	51	-1.1
✕Adam Engel 2019 · MLB	27	43→48	43→50	53→60	39	209/264/326	116	289	10	19	30%	5%	62	-0.9	229/286/370	141	303	14	17	28%	5%	82	+0.5	221/280/353	132	298	13	23	29%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Ray-Patrick Didder 2023 · AAA	28	42→47	42→45	53→60	38	204/273/305	101	297	10	22	33%	6%	61	-1.0	190/288/313	123	275	14	28	34%	9%	71	-0.3	164/281/291	127	235	15	34	34%	11%	60	-0.7
✕Kenny Wilson 2018 · AAA	28	46→51	39→40	54→60	42	217/279/301	84	301	6	25	28%	6%	61	-1.0	209/274/317	108	321	9	20	35%	7%	63	-0.8	192/264/310	118	313	9	22	38%	7%	55	-0.4
✕Myles Schroder 2016 · AA	28	45→46	43→45	53→50	37	222/263/333	111	286	11	14	26%	4%	63	-0.9	217/263/324	107	282	10	9	26%	4%	60	-1.0	212/260/321	110	278	10	7	27%	4%	56	-0.8
✕Wayne Lydon 2008 · AAA	27	49→51	40	57→55	44	235/282/333	97	300	7	24	23%	6%	69	-0.4	232/284/307	75	288	5	28	20%	6%	64	-0.8	233/288/280	47	286	1	38	18%	7%	56	-1.2
✕Kristopher Negrón 2015 · MLB	29	43→51	43→45	54→55	38	214/265/327	113	294	10	18	30%	5%	62	-0.9	214/266/325	111	282	11	16	27%	5%	63	-0.9	219/281/336	117	319	13	14	33%	6%	68	-0.4
✕Elliot Johnson 2012 · MLB	28	46→53	45	52→60	42	231/279/357	126	295	13	22	26%	6%	76	+0.0	218/273/325	107	286	10	27	26%	7%	65	-0.7	206/264/302	96	270	8	29	26%	7%	52	-0.9
✕Andrew Velazquez 2021 · MLB	27	44→51	45→50	53→60	41	217/268/344	128	290	12	19	29%	6%	68	-0.5	216/272/340	124	317	12	33	33%	7%	69	-0.4	206/265/326	120	304	12	41	34%	7%	59	-0.6
✕Cesar Crespo 2007 · MLB	28	47→50	40	53→55	48	228/284/321	93	276	8	21	20%	7%	68	-0.5	225/277/311	86	282	7	15	21%	7%	63	-0.9	223/273/284	61	280	4	14	21%	6%	50	-1.1
✕Tony Thomas 2014 · AAA	28	39→46	45→50	58→55	38	198/247/329	130	275	11	17	32%	5%	55	-1.4	207/248/341	134	312	12	12	36%	5%	58	-1.2	201/239/337	136	309	12	10	38%	4%	50	-1.2
✕Anderson Feliz 2019 · AAA	27	46→50	42→45	51→50	40	222/272/323	101	318	9	16	32%	6%	63	-0.8	214/266/318	104	323	9	12	34%	6%	59	-1.1	186/238/278	92	292	7	7	37%	6%	35	-1.4
✕David Espinosa 2009 · AAA	27	41→48	43→45	54→50	43	205/257/319	114	265	9	15	26%	6%	56	-1.3	210/266/312	102	271	9	15	24%	7%	59	-1.1	189/253/264	76	242	5	18	23%	8%	37	-1.0
✕Mason McCoy 2023 · AAA	28	42→50	46→50	56→55	39	209/259/348	139	297	13	18	34%	6%	65	-0.7	193/255/309	116	289	11	23	35%	7%	53	-1.5	196/258/289	93	284	9	27	32%	7%	46	-1.4
✕Eric Stamets 2021 · MLB	29	41→51	42→45	56→50	39	202/253/308	106	284	9	15	31%	6%	52	-1.6	184/251/299	115	256	12	13	32%	6%	50	-1.7	137/215/238	101	186	12	13	32%	7%	17	-1.2
✕Blake Swihart 2019 · MLB	27	43→50	41→45	51→45	45	209/269/304	95	280	8	11	28%	7%	57	-1.2	191/255/314	123	263	15	7	32%	8%	55	-1.4	149/220/265	116	198	16	2	34%	8%	26	-1.3
✕Joseph Rosa 2023 · AAA	26	44	43→40	55→50	40	213/272/327	115	309	10	19	33%	6%	66	-0.6	214/294/305	91	333	6	15	34%	9%	69	-0.4	200/294/276	76	323	5	17	35%	10%	61	-0.5