J.T. ArrudaSS
Arkansas Travelers
Age 28
S/R
5'10" / 180 lbs
AA
HR +3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
wRC+†60
AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .274 / .299
PA242
HR4
SB11
K%29
BB%8
MLB%2%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
50→50
PWR
45→45
SPD
60→60
EYE
46↗50
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2027
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2034 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $-4M | $-7M | -$4M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | 2 teams | 350 | 320 | 53 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 114 | 1 | 14 | 2 | .166 | .235 | .237 | .472 | .072 | .249 | 33 | 8 | .216 | 23 | -30 | +2 | +0 | +4 | +10 | -1.5 |
| 2022 | 24 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 210 | 183 | 41 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 66 | 0 | 17 | 3 | .224 | .307 | .339 | .646 | .115 | .325 | 31 | 10 | .293 | 82 | -4 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 458 | 400 | 78 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 151 | 4 | 31 | 8 | .195 | .291 | .278 | .568 | .083 | .297 | 33 | 11 | .258 | 56 | -23 | +3 | +0 | +5 | +13 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 442 | 400 | 81 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 118 | 4 | 9 | 2 | .203 | .262 | .285 | .547 | .082 | .277 | 27 | 6 | .238 | 40 | -30 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +13 | -1.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | 2 teams | 235 | 217 | 47 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 65 | 2 | 15 | 0 | .217 | .274 | .332 | .605 | .115 | .281 | 28 | 6 | .265 | 61 | -10 | +3 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 50 | 43 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 2 | .209 | .306 | .279 | .585 | .070 | .308 | 34 | 12 | .260 | 57 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SEA | 192 | 173 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 56 | 1 | 7 | 2 | .208 | .279 | .306 | .585 | .098 | .284 | 29 | 8 | .265 | 61 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.0 |
| TOT | 28 | MLB | SEA | 242 | 216 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 73 | 1 | 11 | 4 | .208 | .285 | .301 | .585 | .093 | .291 | 30 | 9 | .264 | 60 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +7 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB 9% | SEA | 273 | 244 | 50 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 70 | 2 | 10 | 2 | .205 | .284 | .295 | .579 | .090 | .272 | 26 | 9 | .273 | 67 | -10 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +8 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB 19% | SEA | 308 | 275 | 57 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 79 | 2 | 10 | 2 | .207 | .285 | .302 | .587 | .095 | .272 | 26 | 9 | .273 | 67 | -11 | +1 | -2 | +3 | +9 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB 29% | SEA | 305 | 273 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 79 | 2 | 9 | 2 | .205 | .281 | .300 | .582 | .095 | .272 | 26 | 9 | .272 | 67 | -12 | +1 | -3 | +3 | +9 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB 40% | SEA | 294 | 264 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 77 | 2 | 7 | 1 | .205 | .281 | .303 | .584 | .098 | .271 | 26 | 9 | .269 | 64 | -12 | +1 | -4 | +3 | +8 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB 49% | SEA | 270 | 242 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 73 | 2 | 6 | 1 | .202 | .280 | .293 | .573 | .091 | .269 | 27 | 9 | .264 | 60 | -12 | +1 | -4 | +3 | +8 | -0.5 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB 63% | SEA | 230 | 206 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 64 | 2 | 4 | 0 | .199 | .276 | .286 | .563 | .087 | .268 | 28 | 9 | .258 | 55 | -12 | +1 | -5 | +2 | +7 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3567 | 3197 | 643 | 110 | 19 | 48 | 309 | 1012 | 24 | 139 | 25 | .201 | .276 | .292 | .569 | .091 | .276 | 28 | 9 | .259 | 57 | -175 | +18 | -19 | +38 | +101 | -3.8 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 583 | 117 | 20 | 3 | 9 | 56 | 184 | 4 | 25 | 5 | .201 | .275 | .292 | .566 | .091 | .275 | 28 | 9 | .259 | 57 | -32 | +3 | -3 | +7 | +18 | -0.7 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 184 | 167 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 49 | 0 | 5 | 2 | .186 | .257 | .281 | .538 | .096 | .248 | 27 | 9 | .246 | 47 | -11 | +0 | — | — | +5 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 166 | 136 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 32 | 1 | 9 | 0 | .235 | .373 | .324 | .697 | .088 | .301 | 19 | 17 | .328 | 109 | +2 | +2 | — | — | +5 | 0.8 |
| 2022 | 24 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 210 | 170 | 47 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 45 | 0 | 17 | 3 | .276 | .400 | .435 | .835 | .159 | .347 | 21 | 17 | .368 | 139 | +9 | +2 | — | — | +6 | 1.8 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 458 | 376 | 85 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 74 | 118 | 4 | 31 | 8 | .226 | .359 | .327 | .686 | .101 | .311 | 26 | 16 | .319 | 102 | +1 | +3 | — | — | +13 | 1.7 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 442 | 387 | 85 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 41 | 93 | 4 | 9 | 2 | .220 | .301 | .310 | .611 | .090 | .279 | 21 | 9 | .275 | 69 | -16 | +1 | — | — | +13 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 199 | 176 | 44 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 43 | 1 | 13 | 0 | .250 | .333 | .369 | .703 | .119 | .305 | 22 | 11 | .318 | 102 | +0 | +3 | — | — | +6 | 0.9 |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 36 | 34 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .265 | .306 | .500 | .806 | .235 | .333 | 31 | 3 | .352 | 128 | +1 | +0 | — | — | +1 | 0.3 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| J.T. Arruda (OGILVIE) | 28 | 50 | 45 | 60 | 50 | .204/.274/.299 | .095 | .281 | 4 | 8 | 29% | 8% | 60 | -0.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Pedro Florimón 2016 · MLB |
29 | 43→52 | 42→45 | 57→55 | 42 | .208/.262/.315 | .107 | .285 | 8 | 22 | 29% | 7% | 57 | -1.2 | .221/.274/.334 | .113 | .321 | 9 | 15 | 32% | 6% | 67 | -0.5 | .224/.280/.339 | .115 | .329 | 10 | 11 | 33% | 6% | 69 | -0.2 |
|
✕Matthew Batten 2023 · MLB |
28 | 46→49 | 41→45 | 55 | 45 | .219/.285/.311 | .092 | .306 | 9 | 23 | 30% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .201/.270/.305 | .104 | .274 | 11 | 22 | 29% | 8% | 59 | -1.1 | .182/.250/.282 | .099 | .246 | 11 | 22 | 29% | 7% | 42 | -1.9 |
|
✕Kaleb Cowart 2019 · MLB |
27 | 45→51 | 44→45 | 53→50 | 42 | .220/.270/.345 | .125 | .284 | 11 | 17 | 26% | 6% | 69 | -0.4 | .216/.263/.337 | .121 | .276 | 11 | 10 | 25% | 6% | 63 | -0.8 | .209/.252/.322 | .113 | .262 | 10 | 6 | 24% | 5% | 53 | -1.0 |
|
✕Andrew Velazquez 2021 · MLB |
27 | 44→52 | 45→50 | 55→60 | 40 | .219/.267/.349 | .130 | .296 | 12 | 21 | 30% | 6% | 69 | -0.4 | .213/.269/.335 | .122 | .311 | 11 | 32 | 33% | 7% | 66 | -0.6 | .200/.258/.316 | .115 | .294 | 12 | 41 | 34% | 7% | 53 | -0.8 |
|
✕Riley Unroe 2023 · AAA |
27 | 45→47 | 44→45 | 54→55 | 48 | .220/.290/.337 | .117 | .282 | 11 | 19 | 26% | 8% | 76 | +0.0 | .221/.300/.344 | .123 | .297 | 13 | 23 | 28% | 10% | 82 | +0.5 | .221/.306/.342 | .121 | .297 | 13 | 26 | 28% | 10% | 80 | +0.2 |
|
✕Cesar Crespo 2007 · MLB |
28 | 47→50 | 41→40 | 53→55 | 48 | .228/.282/.323 | .095 | .275 | 8 | 22 | 20% | 7% | 68 | -0.5 | .226/.278/.310 | .084 | .282 | 7 | 16 | 21% | 7% | 63 | -0.9 | .223/.273/.285 | .062 | .281 | 4 | 14 | 21% | 6% | 51 | -1.1 |
|
✕David Espinosa 2009 · AAA |
27 | 42→49 | 43→45 | 54→50 | 44 | .208/.262/.327 | .119 | .267 | 10 | 15 | 26% | 7% | 60 | -1.0 | .207/.263/.308 | .101 | .268 | 8 | 15 | 25% | 7% | 56 | -1.3 | .186/.250/.263 | .077 | .240 | 5 | 18 | 23% | 8% | 36 | -1.0 |
|
✕Wayne Lydon 2008 · AAA |
27 | 50→51 | 40 | 58→55 | 44 | .237/.283/.335 | .098 | .302 | 6 | 25 | 23% | 6% | 71 | -0.3 | .233/.285/.309 | .076 | .290 | 4 | 28 | 20% | 6% | 65 | -0.7 | .233/.289/.281 | .047 | .287 | 1 | 38 | 18% | 7% | 57 | -1.2 |
|
✕Garrett Hampson 2023 · MLB |
28 | 43→53 | 44→45 | 55→60 | 46 | .215/.277/.330 | .116 | .278 | 11 | 21 | 26% | 8% | 68 | -0.5 | .236/.300/.330 | .094 | .316 | 6 | 18 | 25% | 8% | 77 | +0.1 | .253/.313/.333 | .080 | .340 | 3 | 18 | 24% | 7% | 81 | +0.2 |
|
✕Ben DeLuzio 2023 · MLB |
28 | 46→50 | 43→45 | 59→60 | 41 | .223/.280/.338 | .115 | .304 | 9 | 28 | 29% | 6% | 71 | -0.3 | .210/.270/.321 | .111 | .305 | 10 | 21 | 33% | 6% | 63 | -0.8 | .154/.224/.233 | .079 | .248 | 9 | 18 | 39% | 7% | 20 | -1.1 |
|
✕Matt Lipka 2021 · AAA |
29 | 45→53 | 41→45 | 54→60 | 42 | .218/.270/.320 | .101 | .287 | 8 | 22 | 26% | 6% | 62 | -0.9 | .233/.286/.348 | .115 | .332 | 11 | 35 | 31% | 6% | 76 | +0.1 | .232/.288/.342 | .110 | .333 | 11 | 46 | 32% | 6% | 71 | -0.1 |
|
✕Myles Schroder 2016 · AA |
28 | 46 | 42→45 | 53→50 | 38 | .226/.268/.333 | .107 | .295 | 10 | 14 | 27% | 4% | 64 | -0.8 | .218/.264/.316 | .098 | .283 | 8 | 10 | 25% | 4% | 59 | -1.1 | .209/.258/.311 | .102 | .276 | 9 | 7 | 26% | 4% | 52 | -1.0 |
|
✕Ray-Patrick Didder 2023 · AAA |
28 | 42→46 | 43→45 | 53→60 | 39 | .207/.274/.314 | .107 | .294 | 11 | 21 | 32% | 6% | 63 | -0.8 | .188/.283/.307 | .119 | .270 | 13 | 28 | 33% | 9% | 67 | -0.5 | .158/.273/.275 | .117 | .225 | 14 | 34 | 34% | 10% | 52 | -1.1 |
|
✕Kenny Wilson 2018 · AAA |
28 | 46→50 | 39→40 | 54→60 | 43 | .219/.280/.304 | .086 | .300 | 6 | 25 | 28% | 7% | 63 | -0.9 | .213/.279/.319 | .106 | .322 | 9 | 20 | 34% | 7% | 66 | -0.6 | .202/.275/.325 | .123 | .322 | 10 | 22 | 37% | 8% | 64 | -0.2 |
|
✕Matt Long 2015 · AAA |
28 | 44→54 | 44→50 | 55 | 45 | .216/.273/.334 | .118 | .283 | 11 | 20 | 27% | 7% | 67 | -0.5 | .202/.255/.306 | .104 | .269 | 9 | 15 | 27% | 6% | 52 | -1.6 | .183/.234/.276 | .093 | .239 | 7 | 11 | 26% | 6% | 34 | -2.4 |
|
✕Tim Torres 2012 · AAA |
28 | 48→50 | 43→45 | 54→55 | 45 | .233/.295/.349 | .116 | .314 | 10 | 15 | 28% | 8% | 80 | +0.4 | .207/.267/.307 | .100 | .311 | 8 | 16 | 34% | 7% | 57 | -1.2 | .258/.326/.391 | .133 | .344 | 13 | 21 | 27% | 9% | 103 | +0.8 |
|
✕Robi Estrada 2017 · AAA |
28 | 48 | 42→40 | 52→50 | 45 | .233/.282/.335 | .102 | .285 | 9 | 13 | 22% | 6% | 71 | -0.3 | .220/.266/.338 | .118 | .289 | 13 | 14 | 27% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .169/.211/.283 | .114 | .224 | 15 | 14 | 32% | 5% | 26 | -0.6 |
|
✕Ivan Ochoa 2011 · MLB |
28 | 47→54 | 41→40 | 53→55 | 46 | .228/.291/.325 | .097 | .285 | 8 | 20 | 22% | 7% | 73 | -0.1 | .213/.264/.300 | .087 | .263 | 5 | 11 | 20% | 6% | 54 | -1.4 | .203/.250/.269 | .066 | .252 | 2 | 8 | 19% | 5% | 40 | -1.5 |
|
✕Wilmer Difo 2020 · MLB |
28 | 49→54 | 41→45 | 52→55 | 49 | .236/.297/.339 | .103 | .290 | 9 | 14 | 21% | 8% | 78 | +0.2 | .234/.292/.336 | .102 | .292 | 10 | 10 | 22% | 8% | 76 | +0.0 | .218/.276/.309 | .091 | .269 | 9 | 15 | 22% | 7% | 60 | -0.5 |
|
✕Richie Martin Jr. 2023 · MLB |
28 | 46→53 | 40→45 | 59→60 | 44 | .221/.285/.324 | .104 | .291 | 6 | 29 | 25% | 6% | 70 | -0.3 | .206/.283/.299 | .093 | .283 | 5 | 32 | 27% | 7% | 63 | -0.8 | .194/.279/.276 | .082 | .272 | 4 | 38 | 27% | 7% | 52 | -1.0 |