J.T. Arruda

SS Montgomery Biscuits
Age 29 S/R 5'10" / 180 lbs AA HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202426AAWSH442.220/.301/.3103945—.200/.257/.274
202527AAA/AAWSH235.252/.329/.39071560—.213/.274/.315
202628AATB335.267/.381/.37962473—.227/.305/.319
2027PROJMLE29MLBTB3.216/.284/.3070067-0.0
2028PROJ23% MLB30MLBTB48.215/.282/.3051266-0.0
Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
BB%90
Chase%85
Speed69
wRC+67
wOBA58
Z-Con%44
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%
CompsPedro Florimón (age 29) · Tommy Murphy (age 29) · Billy Hamilton (age 30)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†67
AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .284 / .307
PA3
HR0
K%33
BB%8
BABIP292
ISO78
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -6.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-6BATRUN: +1.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +1.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.10.02728
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 45
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT50
scouting grade only
POWER45
scouting grade only
EYE50
scouting grade only
SPEED60
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202123 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks — 184167 31812 16490 52 186257281538 96248 279 246 9 — — — — — —
202123 AFredericksburg Nationals — 166136 32521 29321 90 235373324697 88301 1917 328 53 — — — — — —
202224 AFredericksburg Nationals — 210170 47934 35450 173 276400435835 159347 2117 368 82 — — — — — —
202325 AAHarrisburg Senators — 458376 851436 741184 318 226359327686 101311 2616 319 59 — — — — — —
202426 AAHarrisburg Senators — 442387 852033 41934 92 220301310611 90279 219 275 45 — — — — — —
202527 AAARochester Red Wings — 199176 44415 21431 130 250333369703 119305 2211 318 58 — — — — — —
202527 AAHarrisburg Senators — 3634 9202 1111 20 265306500806 235333 313 352 71 — — — — — —
202628 AAMontgomery Biscuits — 335277 741306 50861 244 267381379760 112360 2615 342 73 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202123 A+ MLEWilmington Blue Rocks — 184172 24612 11680 52 140191221412 81214 376 182 9 — — — — — —
202123 A MLEFredericksburg Nationals — 166148 28421 17451 90 189277264541 74266 2710 246 53 — — — — — —
202224 A MLEFredericksburg Nationals — 210181 41833 24630 173 227317354671 127306 3011 290 82 — — — — — —
202325 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 458401 781234 491434 318 195289269558 75286 3111 256 59 — — — — — —
202426 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 442401 801832 271134 92 200257274531 75261 266 235 45 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLERochester Red Wings — 199182 39314 15501 130 214278308585 93269 258 254 58 — — — — — —
202527 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 3634 7201 1131 20 206250353603 147305 363 273 71 — — — — — —
202628 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 335295 671205 321051 244 227305319624 92316 3110 276 73 — — — — — —
202123 A+ MLE2 teams — 350319 511032 291131 142 160232229461 69239 328 212 30 — — — — — —
202123 A+ RAW2 teams — 350303 631333 45811 142 208312300613 92273 2313 285 30 — — — — — —
202224 A MLEFredericksburg Nationals — 210181 41833 24630 173 227317354671 127322 3011 290 82 — — — — — —
202224 A RAWFredericksburg Nationals — 210170 47934 35450 173 276400435835 159347 2117 368 82 — — — — — —
202325 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 458401 781234 491434 318 195289269558 75289 3111 256 59 — — — — — —
202325 AA RAWHarrisburg Senators — 458376 851436 741184 318 226359327686 101311 2616 319 59 — — — — — —
202426 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 442401 801832 271134 92 200257274531 75270 266 235 45 — — — — — —
202426 AA RAWHarrisburg Senators — 442387 852033 41934 92 220301310611 90279 219 275 45 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLE2 teams — 235217 46515 15642 150 212269313583 101277 276 257 60 — — — — — —
202527 AAA RAW2 teams — 235210 53617 22542 150 252329390720 138309 239 323 60 — — — — — —
202628 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 335295 671205 321051 244 227305319624 92328 3110 276 73 — — — — — —
202628 AA RAWMontgomery Biscuits — 335277 741306 50861 244 267381379760 112360 2615 342 73 — — — — — —
202123 A+ MLE2 teams — 350317 511032 291131 142 161232230462 69239 328 212 30 — — — — — —
202224 A MLEFredericksburg Nationals — 210184 41833 24630 173 223317348665 125306 3011 290 82 — — — — — —
202325 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 458402 781234 491434 318 194289269557 75286 3111 256 59 — — — — — —
202426 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 442408 801832 271134 92 196257270527 74261 266 235 45 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLE2 teams — 235216 46515 15642 150 213269315584 102275 276 257 60 — — — — — —
202628 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 335299 671205 321051 244 224305314619 90316 3110 276 73 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202426 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 442408 801832 271134 92 196257270527 74261 266 235 45 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLE2 teams — 235216 46515 15642 150 213269315584 102275 276 257 60 — — — — — —
202628 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 335299 671205 321051 244 224305314619 90316 3110 276 73 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202729 MLB MLETB 2% 376341 721315 301052 152 214282307589 93289 288 268 67 -15 +2 +0 +4 +8 0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202729 MLB CTXTB 2% 33 0000 010 00 216284307591 91292 330 269 67 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202830 MLB MLETB 23% 211191 41713 17591 71 213280305585 92287 288 266 66 -8 +1 -2 +2 +5 -0.3
202830 MLB CTXTB 23% 4844 10201 4130 20 215282305587 90291 278 267 66 -2 +0 -0 +1 +1 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 4844 10201 4130 20 227292341633 114300 278 267 58 -2 +0 -0 +1 +1 -0.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650596 13627014 541760 270 228292344636 116300 278 267 58 -26 +5 -6 +7 +14 -0.6
Career— MLE — 23962146 433771426 20570314 12321 202276287563 85284 299 253 58 -14 +2 -2 +4 +8 -0.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650582 1182147 561914 336 203277289566 86286 299 253 58 -26 +3 -4 +7 +14 -0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 335 PAwOBA .337 → .276 (−61)K% 25.7% → 31.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.67%÷1.000×1.220——31.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.63%÷1.000×0.680—×0.9589.53%
HBP% /PA0.30%—×0.840—×0.9580.24%
Singles /BIP28.80%÷1.000×0.920×1.005×0.95825.51%
Doubles /BIP6.81%÷1.000×0.910×1.005×0.9585.97%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.880×1.005×0.9580.00%
Home runs /BIP3.14%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9582.41%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .337 → .276; ISO .112 → .094; BABIP .360 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 199 PAwOBA .310 → .254 (−56)K% 21.6% → 25.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.61%÷1.028×1.200——25.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.55%÷0.978×0.690—×0.9927.39%
HBP% /PA0.50%—×0.940—×0.9920.47%
Singles /BIP25.56%÷0.987×0.930×0.970×0.99223.17%
Doubles /BIP3.01%÷1.000×0.830×0.970×0.9922.40%
Triples /BIP0.75%÷1.150×0.970×0.970×0.9920.61%
Home runs /BIP3.76%÷0.960×0.700—×0.9922.72%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 106, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .310 → .254; ISO .119 → .089; BABIP .305 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 36 PAwOBA .342 → .273 (−69)K% 30.6% → 37.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.56%÷0.997×1.220——37.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA2.78%÷0.967×0.700—×0.9681.95%
HBP% /PA2.78%—×0.850—×0.9682.29%
Singles /BIP21.74%÷1.009×0.970—×0.96820.24%
Doubles /BIP8.70%÷0.887×0.860—×0.9688.16%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.913×0.950—×0.9680.00%
Home runs /BIP8.70%÷0.963×0.780—×0.9686.82%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 102, 2B 77, 3B 83, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .342 → .273; ISO .235 → .177; BABIP .333 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 442 PAwOBA .270 → .235 (−35)K% 21.0% → 25.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.04%÷1.008×1.220——25.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.28%÷1.051×0.700—×0.9786.04%
HBP% /PA0.90%—×0.850—×0.9780.75%
Singles /BIP20.07%÷1.010×0.970×1.013×0.97819.09%
Doubles /BIP6.80%÷0.964×0.860×1.013×0.9786.01%
Triples /BIP1.02%÷0.915×0.950×1.013×0.9781.05%
Home runs /BIP1.02%÷0.990×0.780—×0.9780.79%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 93, 3B 83, K 102, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .270 → .235; ISO .090 → .081; BABIP .279 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAHarrisburg Senators · 458 PAwOBA .312 → .256 (−56)K% 25.8% → 31.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.76%÷1.005×1.220——31.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.94%÷1.016×0.700—×0.98810.85%
HBP% /PA0.87%—×0.850—×0.9880.73%
Singles /BIP24.03%÷1.013×0.970×0.998×0.98822.69%
Doubles /BIP5.43%÷1.033×0.860×0.998×0.9884.46%
Triples /BIP1.16%÷0.935×0.950×0.998×0.9881.17%
Home runs /BIP2.33%÷1.115×0.780—×0.9881.61%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 87, K 101, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .312 → .256; ISO .101 → .081; BABIP .311 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFredericksburg Nationals · 210 PAwOBA .364 → .290 (−74)K% 21.4% → 30.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.43%÷0.966×1.360——30.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.67%÷0.970×0.690—×0.97011.51%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×0.9700.00%
Singles /BIP24.80%÷0.986×0.920×0.990×0.97022.22%
Doubles /BIP7.20%÷0.933×0.830×0.990×0.9706.15%
Triples /BIP2.40%÷0.910×0.910×0.990×0.9702.30%
Home runs /BIP3.20%÷1.074×0.800—×0.9702.31%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 97, 2B 87, 3B 82, K 93, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .364 → .290; ISO .159 → .127; BABIP .347 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 184 PAwOBA .241 → .182 (−59)K% 26.6% → 37.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.63%÷0.965×1.350——37.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.70%÷0.984×0.710—×0.9886.20%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.810—×0.9880.00%
Singles /BIP16.95%÷0.997×0.910×0.964×0.98814.73%
Doubles /BIP6.78%÷0.916×0.830×0.964×0.9885.85%
Triples /BIP0.85%÷0.900×0.820×0.964×0.9880.74%
Home runs /BIP1.69%÷0.906×0.830—×0.9881.53%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 93, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .241 → .182; ISO .096 → .074; BABIP .248 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AFredericksburg Nationals · 166 PAwOBA .318 → .246 (−73)K% 19.3% → 27.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.28%÷0.967×1.360——27.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.87%÷1.100×0.690—×0.98010.37%
HBP% /PA0.60%—×0.780—×0.9800.46%
Singles /BIP23.08%÷1.006×0.920×0.986×0.98020.41%
Doubles /BIP4.81%÷0.942×0.830×0.986×0.9804.10%
Triples /BIP1.92%÷0.901×0.910×0.986×0.9801.88%
Home runs /BIP0.96%÷1.159×0.800—×0.9800.65%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 101, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 93, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .318 → .246; ISO .088 → .074; BABIP .301 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).