Christian Cairo — OGILVIE

Christian CairoSS Lehigh Valley IronPigs

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 25 R/R 5'8" / 185 lbs AAA HR +11%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2028

wRC+†96

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .288 / .284

PA134

HR1

SB7

K%28

BB%9

MLB%40%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

45→45

PWR

35→35

SPD

60→60

EYE

53↘50

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$3M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$3M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$1M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.2	$1.0M	-$0.1M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$12M		$13M	+$1M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	AZL Indians Red	179	155	19	2	1	0	16	58	7	7	3	.123	.236	.148	.384	.026	.194	32	9	.181	-3	-21	+0	+0	+2	+5	-1.4
2021	20	A	2 teams	315	269	48	9	1	5	32	112	10	19	3	.178	.289	.275	.564	.097	.279	36	10	.254	52	-17	+3	+0	+3	+9	-0.2
2022	21	A+	2 teams	254	215	33	6	1	1	32	85	7	10	2	.153	.283	.205	.488	.051	.248	33	13	.235	38	-18	+1	+0	+3	+7	-0.7
2023	22	A+	2 teams	276	237	48	6	3	3	34	66	4	12	6	.203	.313	.291	.604	.089	.266	24	12	.268	63	-11	+0	+0	+3	+8	-0.1
2024	23	AAA	2 teams	413	359	78	8	4	3	41	123	5	26	4	.217	.306	.287	.593	.070	.312	30	10	.272	67	-16	+4	+0	+4	+12	0.4
2025	24	AAA	Columbus Clippers	416	368	78	17	3	2	31	120	11	33	7	.212	.293	.291	.583	.079	.304	29	7	.259	56	-20	+4	+0	+4	+12	-0.0
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	25	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	107	90	24	4	0	1	14	24	2	6	3	.267	.377	.344	.722	.078	.348	22	13	.318	102	+0	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.4
ROS	25	MLB	PHI	27	24	5	1	0	0	3	7	0	1	0	.208	.296	.250	.546	.042	.302	26	11	.280	73	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
TOT	25	MLB	PHI	134	114	29	5	0	1	17	31	2	7	3	.254	.361	.325	.685	.070	.337	23	13	.310	96	-1	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB 56%	PHI	364	319	70	12	2	4	36	91	6	18	5	.219	.310	.307	.617	.088	.293	25	10	.287	78	-9	+2	+0	+4	+10	0.7
2028	27	MLB 74%	PHI	388	340	76	13	2	5	39	96	6	19	5	.224	.314	.318	.632	.094	.293	25	10	.290	80	-9	+2	+0	+4	+11	0.8
2029	28	MLB 82%	PHI	400	351	78	14	2	5	40	100	6	19	5	.222	.312	.316	.629	.094	.293	25	10	.290	80	-9	+2	-1	+4	+11	0.8
2030	29	MLB 88%	PHI	400	351	78	14	2	5	40	100	6	18	5	.222	.312	.316	.629	.094	.292	25	10	.289	79	-9	+2	-1	+4	+11	0.7
2031	30	MLB 94%	PHI	398	349	76	13	2	5	40	101	6	17	4	.218	.309	.309	.618	.092	.291	25	10	.286	77	-10	+2	-2	+4	+11	0.5
2032	31	MLB	PHI	386	338	73	13	2	4	39	100	6	14	4	.216	.308	.302	.610	.086	.289	26	10	.282	74	-11	+1	-3	+4	+11	0.2
2033	32	MLB	PHI	370	324	69	12	2	4	37	98	6	12	3	.213	.305	.299	.605	.086	.288	26	10	.278	71	-12	+1	-4	+4	+10	-0.0
2034	33	MLB	PHI	341	299	63	11	2	3	34	92	5	10	2	.211	.302	.291	.593	.080	.286	27	10	.272	67	-13	+1	-4	+4	+10	-0.3
2035	34	MLB	PHI	298	263	53	9	1	3	29	83	4	8	2	.202	.291	.278	.568	.076	.285	28	10	.267	62	-13	+1	-5	+3	+8	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5225	4561	945	160	30	52	523	1432	95	243	60	.207	.302	.290	.591	.082	.287	27	10	.272	66	-200	+25	-20	+56	+148	0.9
/ 162G	—			650	567	117	20	4	6	65	178	12	30	7	.206	.301	.287	.589	.081	.287	27	10	.272	66	-25	+3	-2	+7	+18	0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	AZL Indians Red	179	146	26	3	1	0	25	40	7	7	3	.178	.326	.212	.538	.034	.243	22	14	.268	63	-7	+0	—	—	+5	-0.2
2021	20	A+	Lake County Captains	86	71	19	5	0	3	12	21	2	4	1	.268	.388	.465	.853	.197	.340	24	14	.377	147	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.8
2021	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	229	181	38	6	2	3	37	63	8	15	2	.210	.367	.315	.682	.105	.299	28	16	.320	103	+1	+2	—	—	+6	1.0
2022	21	A+	Lake County Captains	235	187	37	8	1	2	41	64	7	10	2	.198	.362	.283	.645	.086	.289	27	17	.312	97	-1	+1	—	—	+7	0.7
2022	21	ROK	ACL Guardians	19	15	3	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	.200	.368	.200	.568	.000	.250	16	21	.290	80	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2023	22	A+	Lake County Captains	229	188	45	6	3	3	39	44	2	10	5	.239	.376	.351	.727	.112	.298	19	17	.338	117	+4	+0	—	—	+6	1.1
2023	22	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	47	38	11	0	0	1	6	11	2	2	1	.289	.413	.368	.781	.079	.370	23	13	.357	131	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2024	23	AAA	Columbus Clippers	257	210	49	5	3	2	40	58	2	12	4	.233	.361	.314	.675	.081	.305	23	16	.312	97	-1	+1	—	—	+7	0.7
2024	23	AA	Akron RubberDucks	156	131	33	4	1	2	19	38	3	14	0	.252	.359	.344	.703	.092	.330	24	12	.320	103	+1	+3	—	—	+4	0.8
2025	24	AAA	Columbus Clippers	416	354	84	21	3	2	45	97	11	33	7	.237	.341	.331	.672	.093	.317	23	11	.308	94	-3	+4	—	—	+12	1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Christian Cairo (OGILVIE)	25	45	35	60	50	.204/.288/.284	.079	.290	1	7	28%	9%	62	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Max Schuemann 2022 · AAA	25	44→47	40→45	58→60	44	.213/.287/.306	.094	.282	7	30	26%	7%	67	-0.5	.222/.313/.336	.114	.305	11	25	28%	9%	86	+0.8	.220/.319/.329	.110	.303	11	22	28%	10%	85	+0.5
✕Wes Rogers 2019 · AA	25	45→51	39→40	59→65	42	.217/.269/.305	.088	.291	6	33	27%	6%	57	-1.2	.198/.256/.280	.082	.303	6	18	34%	7%	46	-2.0	.164/.230/.230	.066	.276	3	12	39%	7%	20	-1.8
✕Kenny Wilson 2015 · AAA	25	46→50	38→40	56→60	40	.217/.275/.298	.080	.301	5	28	28%	6%	58	-1.2	.223/.280/.312	.089	.308	6	26	28%	6%	64	-0.8	.199/.267/.293	.094	.305	8	22	35%	7%	52	-0.6
✕Daniel Hinojosa 2009 · AAA	25	44	38→40	57→55	38	.208/.263/.282	.074	.311	6	26	34%	6%	49	-1.8	.232/.275/.320	.088	.308	5	20	25%	5%	63	-0.8	.249/.289/.333	.084	.321	4	20	23%	4%	69	-0.2
✕D.J. Burt 2021 · AA	25	44→51	38→40	55→65	43	.212/.267/.292	.080	.295	6	26	29%	7%	53	-1.5	.227/.293/.311	.084	.316	6	36	27%	8%	69	-0.4	.235/.305/.310	.075	.321	5	49	26%	9%	71	-0.2
✕Adam Engel 2017 · AAA	25	44→48	40→50	61→60	40	.209/.265/.309	.100	.296	7	33	31%	6%	57	-1.2	.206/.263/.325	.119	.289	10	21	31%	6%	61	-1.0	.227/.287/.366	.138	.305	13	23	28%	5%	79	+0.1
✕Darren Ford 2011 · AA	25	46→53	40→45	59→65	43	.219/.278/.315	.097	.303	7	32	29%	7%	64	-0.8	.225/.275/.318	.093	.307	7	36	27%	6%	63	-0.8	.222/.271/.297	.075	.302	6	49	27%	6%	53	-0.7
✕Lucius Fox 2022 · AAA	25	42→49	40	58→60	46	.203/.279/.300	.097	.284	7	30	29%	9%	62	-0.9	.204/.261/.302	.098	.295	9	19	32%	7%	53	-1.5	.182/.233/.258	.076	.265	8	17	33%	6%	27	-1.1
✕Kelby Tomlinson 2015 · AA	25	48→58	35→40	57→60	44	.226/.278/.281	.055	.299	2	28	24%	6%	55	-1.4	.264/.318/.334	.070	.328	3	25	19%	7%	85	+0.7	.274/.334/.339	.065	.334	3	24	17%	7%	89	+0.7
✕Tyler Saladino 2014 · AAA	25	43→46	41→45	54→55	47	.208/.278/.305	.098	.271	8	22	26%	8%	63	-0.9	.235/.288/.340	.105	.289	9	23	21%	6%	75	-0.0	.253/.299/.369	.116	.300	11	25	19%	5%	84	+0.4
✕Chase d'Arnaud 2012 · MLB	25	47→49	41→45	60	45	.226/.284/.334	.108	.280	6	26	21%	6%	72	-0.2	.213/.262/.313	.100	.274	6	32	23%	5%	56	-1.3	.229/.293/.350	.121	.292	11	26	24%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Josh Prince 2013 · AA	25	45→46	38→40	54→60	45	.216/.272/.299	.082	.280	5	30	24%	7%	57	-1.2	.207/.277/.299	.092	.274	8	28	26%	8%	60	-1.0	.216/.291/.302	.086	.289	8	28	26%	9%	64	-0.4
✕Elian Herrera 2011 · AAA	26	49→55	38→40	58→60	44	.228/.287/.310	.081	.313	5	28	27%	7%	66	-0.6	.236/.298/.320	.084	.321	5	24	26%	8%	73	-0.1	.239/.301/.321	.082	.319	5	22	25%	7%	73	-0.1
✕Jared Oliva 2021 · MLB	25	46	41→50	56→65	42	.222/.284/.324	.101	.303	9	26	28%	6%	69	-0.4	.216/.268/.324	.108	.300	8	23	29%	5%	63	-0.9	.224/.292/.359	.135	.282	14	55	25%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Hak-Ju Lee 2016 · AAA	25	43→53	38→40	54→55	42	.204/.261/.283	.079	.290	6	22	30%	7%	49	-1.8	.215/.270/.309	.094	.315	8	16	32%	6%	59	-1.1	.221/.280/.302	.081	.332	7	11	33%	6%	59	-0.3
✕Jay Gonzalez 2017 · AA	25	48→50	35→30	57→60	46	.220/.286/.277	.058	.322	1	27	30%	9%	57	-1.2	.233/.295/.297	.064	.346	1	25	30%	8%	66	-0.6	.247/.309/.305	.058	.368	0	27	30%	8%	71	-0.1
✕Michael Mitchell 2011 · AA	25	47→54	36→40	57→55	41	.223/.274/.289	.066	.302	4	26	26%	5%	56	-1.3	.204/.251/.278	.074	.277	5	22	27%	5%	43	-2.2	.194/.234/.262	.068	.262	5	23	27%	4%	27	-2.0
✕Wayne Lydon 2006 · AA	25	49→51	38→40	61→55	43	.229/.276/.318	.089	.297	4	28	23%	6%	63	-0.8	.236/.284/.330	.094	.304	6	26	23%	6%	70	-0.3	.237/.288/.320	.083	.300	5	29	22%	6%	66	-0.6
✕Ben DeLuzio 2021 · AAA	26	49→50	40→45	55→60	41	.227/.288/.324	.097	.326	6	26	30%	6%	71	-0.3	.219/.277/.329	.110	.309	8	25	30%	6%	68	-0.5	.207/.267/.313	.106	.295	8	30	31%	6%	56	-0.6
✕Roberto Caro 2019 · AA	25	49→39	37→40	58→60	45	.225/.295/.308	.083	.327	3	24	30%	8%	69	-0.4	.210/.278/.287	.077	.303	4	26	29%	8%	57	-1.2	.183/.254/.242	.059	.268	2	31	30%	8%	35	-2.1

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)