Christian Cairo — OGILVIE

Christian CairoSS Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 25 R/R 5'8" / 185 lbs AAA HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION516 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA1

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP267

ISO67

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	18	ROK	AZL Indians Red	—	179	146	26	3	1	0	25	40	7	7	3	178	326	212	538	34	243	22	14	268	67	-7	+0	—	—	+4	-0.3
2021	20	A+	Lake County Captains	—	86	71	19	5	0	3	12	21	2	4	1	268	388	465	853	197	340	24	14	377	142	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.7
2021	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	229	181	38	6	2	3	37	63	8	15	2	210	367	315	682	105	299	28	16	320	103	+1	+2	—	—	+5	0.8
2022	21	A+	Lake County Captains	—	235	187	37	8	1	2	41	64	7	10	2	198	362	283	645	86	289	27	17	312	97	-1	+1	—	—	+5	0.6
2022	21	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	19	15	3	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	200	368	200	568		250	16	21	290	82	-0	+0	—	—	+0	0.0
2023	22	A+	Lake County Captains	—	229	188	45	6	3	3	39	44	2	10	5	239	376	351	727	112	298	19	17	338	115	+4	+0	—	—	+5	0.9
2023	22	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	47	38	11	0	0	1	6	11	2	2	1	289	413	368	781	79	370	23	13	357	128	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2024	23	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	257	210	49	5	3	2	40	58	2	12	4	233	361	314	675	81	305	23	16	312	97	-1	+1	—	—	+6	0.6
2024	23	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	156	131	33	4	1	2	19	38	3	14	0	252	359	344	703	92	330	24	12	320	103	+0	+3	—	—	+3	0.7
2025	24	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	416	354	84	21	3	2	45	97	11	33	7	237	341	331	672	93	317	23	11	308	94	-3	+4	—	—	+9	1.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Red	—	179	155	19	2	1	0	16	58	7	7	3	123	236	148	384	26	186	32	9	181	9	-19	+0	—	—	+4	-1.6
2021	20	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	86	75	15	4	0	2	8	28	2	4	1	200	294	333	627	133	292	33	9	283	78	-2	+0	—	—	+2	-0.0
2021	20	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	229	193	31	5	1	2	25	85	8	15	2	161	283	228	511	67	259	37	11	242	50	-14	+2	—	—	+5	-0.7
2022	21	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	235	198	29	6	1	1	30	85	7	10	2	146	281	202	483	56	246	36	13	232	43	-16	+1	—	—	+5	-1.0
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	19	17	3	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	176	263	176	440		205	21	11	206	26	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2023	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	229	199	38	5	2	2	28	58	2	10	5	191	297	266	563	75	262	25	12	266	66	-9	+0	—	—	+5	-0.4
2024	23	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	257	223	45	4	3	1	27	74	2	12	4	202	294	260	554	58	285	29	11	259	61	-12	+1	—	—	+6	-0.6
2024	23	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	156	137	33	4	1	2	13	47	3	14	0	241	320	328	649	88	325	30	8	283	78	-4	+3	—	—	+3	0.2
2025	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	416	368	76	17	3	1	31	122	11	33	7	207	288	277	565	71	293	29	7	255	59	-20	+4	—	—	+9	-0.8
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Red	—	179	155	19	2	1	0	16	58	7	7	3	123	236	148	384	26	194	32	9	181	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Indians Red	—	179	146	26	3	1	0	25	40	7	7	3	178	326	212	538	34	243	22	14	268	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	315	268	46	9	1	4	33	113	10	19	3	172	286	257	544	86	275	36	10	253	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	315	252	57	11	2	6	49	84	10	19	3	226	373	357	730	131	311	27	16	336	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	254	215	32	6	1	1	32	89	7	10	2	149	280	200	480	51	248	35	13	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	254	202	40	8	1	2	45	67	7	10	2	198	362	277	639	79	286	26	18	310	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	276	237	47	6	3	3	34	70	4	12	6	198	309	287	596	89	267	25	12	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	276	226	56	6	3	4	45	55	4	12	6	248	382	354	736	106	310	20	16	341	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	413	360	78	8	4	3	40	121	5	26	4	217	304	286	590	69	309	29	10	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	413	341	82	9	4	4	59	96	5	26	4	240	360	326	686	85	315	23	14	315	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	416	368	76	17	3	1	31	122	11	33	7	207	288	277	565	71	301	29	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	—	416	354	84	21	3	2	45	97	11	33	7	237	341	331	672	93	317	23	11	308	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Red	—	179	154	19	2	1	0	16	58	7	7	3	123	236	149	385	26	186	32	9	181	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	315	269	46	9	1	4	33	113	10	19	3	171	286	257	543	86	268	36	10	253	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	254	213	32	6	1	1	32	89	7	10	2	150	280	202	481	52	243	35	13	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	276	236	47	6	3	3	34	70	4	12	6	199	309	288	597	89	262	25	12	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	413	365	78	8	4	3	40	121	5	26	4	214	304	282	586	68	300	29	10	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	416	371	76	17	3	1	31	122	11	33	7	205	288	275	563	70	293	29	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	276	236	47	6	3	3	34	70	4	12	6	199	309	288	597	89	262	25	12	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	413	365	78	8	4	3	40	121	5	26	4	214	304	282	586	68	300	29	10	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	416	371	76	17	3	1	31	122	11	33	7	205	288	275	563	70	293	29	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	PHI	—	516	435	93	14	1	3	61	91	11	25	11	214	325	271	597	57	261	18	12	276	73	-17	+1	+0	+6	+11	0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA RAW	PHI	—	516	406	92	15	1	4	90	76	11	25	11	227	381	298	679	71	267	15	17	320	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	25	AAA MLE	PHI	10%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		265	22	11	274	72	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	25	MLB CTX	PHI	10%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						267	0	0	261	72	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	25	MLB A+C	PHI	—	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0							0	0	261	73	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	25	AAA MLE	PHI	—	525	443	94	14	1	3	62	93	11	25	11	212	324	269	592	56	259	18	12	276	73	-17	+1	+0	+6	+11	0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	PHI	35%	365	316	68	11	1	4	39	76	7	16	6	215	315	294	609	79	269	21	11	285	79	-9	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	PHI	44%	388	336	73	12	1	5	42	81	7	17	6	217	317	304	620	86	270	21	11	288	81	-9	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	PHI	49%	401	348	76	13	1	5	43	85	7	17	6	218	317	305	621	86	271	21	11	289	82	-9	+1	-1	+4	+9	0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	PHI	50%	400	347	75	13	1	5	43	86	7	16	6	216	315	303	617	86	271	22	11	288	81	-9	+1	-1	+4	+9	0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	PHI	51%	398	345	74	12	1	5	43	86	7	14	5	214	314	299	612	84	270	22	11	286	79	-10	+1	-2	+4	+9	0.2
2032	31	MLB MLE	PHI	51%	387	335	71	12	1	4	42	85	7	12	4	212	312	290	602	78	268	22	11	282	77	-11	+1	-3	+4	+8	-0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	PHI	35%	127	110	23	4	0	1	14	26	2	6	2	209	310	273	582	64	271	20	11	274	79	-3	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	PHI	44%	171	148	32	5	1	2	18	36	3	8	3	216	314	304	618	88	272	21	11	278	81	-4	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	PHI	49%	196	170	38	6	1	3	21	42	3	8	3	224	320	324	643	100	273	21	11	279	82	-4	+0	-0	+2	+4	0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	PHI	50%	200	174	38	6	1	3	21	43	3	8	3	218	313	316	629	98	273	22	10	279	81	-4	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	PHI	51%	201	174	38	6	1	3	22	44	3	7	3	218	317	316	633	98	272	22	11	276	79	-5	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.1
2032	31	MLB CTX	PHI	51%	197	171	37	6	1	2	21	43	3	6	2	216	313	298	611	82	270	22	11	272	77	-5	+0	-1	+2	+4	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1093	948	206	33	5	14	117	234	17	43	16	217	314	307	621	90	272	21	11	276	69	-26	+2	-4	+12	+24	0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	564	123	20	3	8	70	139	10	26	10	218	316	307	622	89	273	21	11	276	69	-16	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	4201	3638	736	121	19	40	439	1074	86	199	58	202	303	279	582	77	273	26	10	270	69	-56	+5	-7	+25	+51	1.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	563	114	19	3	6	68	166	13	31	9	202	303	279	582	76	273	26	10	270	69	-16	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#2Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#3Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	3.1	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
/162	664	4	44	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Tony Gwynn Jr.last yr '14 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,749 PA	2.6	1,749	7	77	239	310	313	+1	+35	4.1	4.1
/162	664	3	29	+0.5	+13.1	1.6	pk7: 4
#5Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	2.8	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
/162	664	4	28	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	3	86	251	310	309	+5	+12	2.7	2.7
/162	664	1	37	+2.4	+5.1	1.2	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.7	1,123	14	44	217	312	303	+12	+9	1.8	1.8
/162	664	8	26	+7.1	+5.3	1.0	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Christian Cairo (OGILVIE)	25	45	35	60	50	207/310/268	61	265	2	15	21%	11%	72	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Max Schuemann 2022 · AAA	25	46→48	40→45	59→60	44	218/292/312	94	289	7	32	26%	7%	74	-0.5	225/316/336	111	307	10	25	28%	9%	88	+0.5	221/319/328	107	303	11	22	28%	10%	86	+0.2
✕Delino DeShields 2019 · MLB	26	48→55	39→45	56→65	53	228/311/310	83	294	7	31	23%	10%	80	-0.1	230/309/324	94	304	7	28	24%	10%	82	+0.0	227/310/316	89	305	6	31	25%	10%	77	-0.2
✕Tyler Saladino 2014 · AAA	25	44→47	39→45	55	48	210/281/298	88	271	7	23	24%	8%	66	-1.1	238/289/340	102	291	9	23	20%	6%	78	-0.3	253/298/364	112	301	10	25	19%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Wes Rogers 2019 · AA	25	45→51	39→40	59→65	42	216/266/303	87	289	6	32	27%	6%	61	-1.5	199/257/281	82	305	6	17	34%	7%	53	-2.1	165/231/231	66	276	3	12	38%	7%	30	-1.8
✕Kenny Wilson 2015 · AAA	25	47→51	37→40	56→60	40	220/273/299	79	304	4	27	28%	5%	63	-1.4	226/283/311	85	308	5	26	26%	6%	69	-0.9	200/268/290	91	305	7	22	34%	7%	57	-0.7
✕Wilfredo Tovar 2017 · AAA	25	50→54	36→40	54→60	46	235/274/300	65	268	3	28	14%	5%	62	-1.4	233/271/313	80	276	6	19	17%	5%	64	-1.3	246/291/326	80	284	6	11	15%	5%	72	-0.5
✕D.J. Burt 2021 · AA	25	44→51	38→40	55→65	43	211/266/291	80	290	6	26	28%	7%	58	-1.7	235/300/318	83	320	5	36	26%	8%	77	-0.3	243/312/317	74	327	4	49	25%	9%	78	-0.1
✕Daniel Hinojosa 2009 · AAA	25	44	38→40	58→55	40	207/268/279	72	305	6	26	32%	7%	57	-1.8	234/278/320	86	310	5	20	25%	5%	69	-0.9	247/287/328	80	320	4	20	23%	4%	71	-0.4
✕Yonny Hernández 2023 · MLB	25	47→57	36→30	62→60	54	216/309/283	68	271	3	39	20%	10%	74	-0.6	225/308/295	70	288	4	22	21%	9%	76	-0.4	265/327/322	57	316	2	17	16%	7%	84	+0.1
✕J.D. Orr 2022 · AA	25	51	36→30	54→65	47	238/297/314	76	316	3	24	24%	8%	75	-0.5	217/299/282	65	300	3	37	26%	9%	70	-0.9	203/298/249	46	285	1	51	26%	10%	60	-0.7
✕Kelby Tomlinson 2015 · AA	25	50→60	35→40	58→60	44	231/283/287	56	302	2	29	23%	6%	63	-1.4	267/321/338	71	329	3	24	18%	7%	89	+0.5	279/337/345	67	339	3	24	17%	7%	93	+0.6
✕Austin Martin 2023 · AA	24	49→52	38→40	57→60	51	227/326/306	79	286	5	25	20%	9%	86	+0.3	239/325/324	85	293	6	24	19%	9%	88	+0.5	257/354/339	82	314	4	22	17%	11%	101	+0.8
✕Josh Prince 2013 · AA	25	46→48	38→40	54→60	47	220/278/303	83	281	5	29	23%	7%	65	-1.2	209/280/298	89	274	8	28	25%	8%	65	-1.2	221/297/300	79	291	7	28	25%	9%	70	-0.4
✕Adam Engel 2017 · AAA	25	44→48	40→50	61→60	41	212/269/313	101	299	6	33	30%	6%	64	-1.3	206/264/323	117	289	10	20	31%	6%	65	-1.2	223/283/355	132	299	13	23	29%	5%	77	-0.2
✕Elih Marrero 2023 · AA	26	44	37→40	53→55	46	207/279/279	73	294	4	23	29%	9%	61	-1.5	215/280/312	97	306	8	21	30%	8%	69	-0.9	210/267/320	110	294	8	22	29%	6%	62	-0.4
✕Jacob Young 2023 · A	24	48→57	36→40	61→60	46	225/291/289	64	292	3	28	22%	7%	68	-1.0	248/306/326	78	309	4	32	20%	6%	81	-0.1	242/306/332	90	291	7	29	18%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Darren Ford 2011 · AA	25	46→53	40→45	59→65	43	220/276/319	99	300	7	31	28%	7%	68	-1.0	225/273/315	90	305	7	37	27%	6%	66	-1.1	222/271/297	74	301	6	49	27%	6%	58	-0.8
✕Lucius Fox 2022 · AAA	25	43→49	40	58→60	47	207/284/305	98	290	7	30	29%	9%	69	-0.9	203/260/296	93	295	9	18	32%	7%	57	-1.8	181/232/251	70	264	7	17	33%	6%	33	-1.2
✕Rafael Bautista 2018 · MLB	25	51→55	35→30	57→60	44	238/282/294	56	288	2	28	18%	5%	64	-1.3	224/272/296	72	286	5	19	22%	6%	61	-1.5	222/261/293	71	286	7	12	24%	3%	53	-0.7
✕Kristopher Negrón 2011 · AAA	25	48→50	41→45	56→55	44	232/295/333	100	294	8	22	23%	6%	79	-0.2	202/254/296	94	271	8	18	27%	5%	55	-1.9	226/289/352	126	323	14	14	32%	7%	78	-0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps