Christian Cairo — OGILVIE

Christian CairoSS Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 25 R/R 5'8" / 185 lbs AAA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION380 act + 253 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .318 / .287

PA253

HR2

SB14

K%23

BB%11

BABIP289

ISO68

MLB%40%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$6M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	AZL Indians Red	—	179	155	19	2	1	0	16	58	7	7	3	123	236	148	384	26	194	32	9	181	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK	AZL Indians Red	—	179	146	26	3	1	0	25	40	7	7	3	178	326	212	538	34	243	22	14	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A	2 teams	—	315	268	46	9	1	4	33	111	10	19	3	172	286	257	544	86	271	35	10	251	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A	2 teams	—	315	252	57	11	2	6	49	84	10	19	3	226	373	357	730	131	311	27	16	336	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+	2 teams	—	254	214	32	6	1	1	33	88	7	10	2	150	283	201	484	51	248	35	13	233	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+	2 teams	—	254	202	40	8	1	2	45	67	7	10	2	198	362	277	639	79	286	26	18	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	2 teams	—	276	236	47	7	2	3	35	68	4	12	6	199	313	284	597	85	265	25	13	269	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	2 teams	—	276	226	56	6	3	4	45	55	4	12	6	248	382	354	736	106	310	20	16	341	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA	2 teams	—	413	361	77	8	4	3	39	130	5	26	4	213	299	283	581	69	315	31	9	267	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA	2 teams	—	413	341	82	9	4	4	59	96	5	26	4	240	360	326	686	85	315	23	14	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	416	369	73	15	3	1	30	128	11	33	7	198	278	263	541	65	295	31	7	248	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	416	354	84	21	3	2	45	97	11	33	7	237	341	331	672	93	317	23	11	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AAA	PHI	—	380	318	78	11	1	3	47	72	8	23	9	245	357	314	671	69	305	19	12	304	91	-4	+1	+0	+4	+11	1.2
YTD	25	AAA	PHI	—	380	296	76	12	1	3	69	60	8	23	9	257	410	334	745	78	309	16	18	346	123	+10	+1	+0	+4	+11	2.6
ROS	25	AAA	PHI	40%	253	219	48	7	1	2	27	59	5	14	5	219	318	287	606	68	289	23	11	285	76	-7	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.4
ROS	25	MLB	PHI	40%	101	87	19	3	0	1	11	23	2	6	2	218	320	287	607	69	291	23	11	272	66	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.0
FULL	25	AAA	PHI	—	481	405	97	14	1	4	58	95	10	29	11	240	349	309	657	69	300	20	12	297	86	-8	+1	+0	+5	+14	1.3
TOT	25	AAA	PHI	—	633	537	126	18	2	5	74	131	13	37	14	234	341	303	645	69	299	21	12	296	85	-11	+2	+0	+7	+18	1.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	PHI	49%	365	316	71	11	2	4	39	84	7	19	6	225	323	310	633	85	289	23	11	289	79	-8	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.7
2028	27	MLB	PHI	51%	388	337	75	12	2	4	41	90	7	20	6	223	319	306	625	83	289	23	11	292	82	-8	+2	+0	+4	+11	0.9
2029	28	MLB	PHI	53%	401	348	79	13	2	5	43	93	7	20	6	227	324	319	643	92	289	23	11	293	82	-8	+2	-1	+4	+11	0.9
2027	26	MLB	PHI	49%	178	154	36	6	1	2	19	41	3	9	3	234	330	325	654	91	291	23	11	277	70	-6	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2028	27	MLB	PHI	51%	199	172	39	6	1	2	21	46	4	10	3	227	325	308	633	81	291	23	11	280	73	-6	+1	+0	+2	+6	0.3
2029	28	MLB	PHI	53%	212	183	42	7	1	3	23	49	4	10	3	230	329	328	656	98	291	23	11	281	74	-6	+1	-0	+2	+6	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	690	596	136	22	3	8	74	159	13	35	11	228	327	315	642	87	296	23	11	279	71	-22	+3	-0	+7	+20	0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	561	129	21	3	8	70	150	12	33	10	230	328	321	649	91	297	23	11	279	71	-21	+3	-0	+7	+18	0.7
Career	—			—	3260	2823	567	90	19	27	336	909	70	180	48	201	301	275	576	74	283	28	10	266	62	-141	+17	-1	+35	+92	0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	563	113	18	4	5	67	181	14	36	10	201	301	274	575	73	283	28	10	266	62	-28	+3	-0	+7	+18	0.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	AZL Indians Red	—	179	146	26	3	1	0	25	40	7	7	3	178	326	212	538	34	243	22	14	268	63	-7	+0	—	—	+5	-0.2
2021	20	A+	Lake County Captains	—	86	71	19	5	0	3	12	21	2	4	1	268	388	465	853	197	340	24	14	377	147	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.8
2021	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	229	181	38	6	2	3	37	63	8	15	2	210	367	315	682	105	299	28	16	320	103	+1	+2	—	—	+6	1.0
2022	21	A+	Lake County Captains	—	235	187	37	8	1	2	41	64	7	10	2	198	362	283	645	86	289	27	17	312	97	-1	+1	—	—	+7	0.7
2022	21	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	19	15	3	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	200	368	200	568		250	16	21	290	80	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2023	22	A+	Lake County Captains	—	229	188	45	6	3	3	39	44	2	10	5	239	376	351	727	112	298	19	17	338	117	+4	+0	—	—	+6	1.1
2023	22	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	47	38	11	0	0	1	6	11	2	2	1	289	413	368	781	79	370	23	13	357	131	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2024	23	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	257	210	49	5	3	2	40	58	2	12	4	233	361	314	675	81	305	23	16	312	97	-1	+1	—	—	+7	0.7
2024	23	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	156	131	33	4	1	2	19	38	3	14	0	252	359	344	703	92	330	24	12	320	103	+1	+3	—	—	+4	0.8
2025	24	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	416	354	84	21	3	2	45	97	11	33	7	237	341	331	672	93	317	23	11	308	94	-3	+4	—	—	+12	1.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#2Delino DeShieldslast yr '21 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,114 PA	7	2,114	19	111	246	327	342	+1	+6	5.3	5.3
	/162	664	6	35	246	327	342	+0.4	+1.8	1.7	pk7: 5
#3Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	6	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	4	44	247	316	328	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Tony Gwynn Jr.last yr '14 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,749 PA	7	1,749	7	77	239	310	313	+1	+35	4.1	4.1
	/162	664	3	29	239	310	313	+0.5	+13.1	1.6	pk7: 4
#5Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	7	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	4	28	248	302	332	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	5	1,539	3	86	251	310	309	+5	+12	2.7	2.7
#6Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	/162	664	1	37	251	310	309	+2.4	+5.1	1.2	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	679	7	34	222	315	305	+7	+6	1.2	1.3
	/162	664	7	34	222	315	305	+7.1	+5.9	1.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Christian Cairo (OGILVIE)	25	45	35	60	50	234/341/303	69	299	5	37	21%	12%	85	+1.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Max Schuemann 2022 · AAA	25	44→47	40→45	59→60	44	212/288/308	96	283	8	32	26%	7%	68	-0.5	223/314/344	121	303	12	25	28%	9%	89	+0.9	220/317/335	116	299	12	22	28%	10%	86	+0.6
✕Wes Rogers 2019 · AA	25	43→48	38→40	58→65	41	207/257/286	79	287	5	32	29%	6%	47	-1.9	194/251/270	76	305	5	17	35%	7%	41	-2.3	158/224/216	58	272	3	12	40%	7%	14	-2.0
✕Daniel Hinojosa 2009 · AAA	25	43	38→40	58→55	39	206/263/277	72	302	6	26	32%	6%	48	-1.9	234/276/322	88	309	5	20	25%	5%	64	-0.8	248/287/332	84	320	4	20	23%	4%	68	-0.2
✕Tyler Saladino 2014 · AAA	25	42→47	40→45	55	47	206/277/296	90	272	8	23	26%	8%	59	-1.1	239/290/343	104	296	9	23	21%	6%	76	+0.1	256/300/368	112	305	11	25	19%	5%	85	+0.4
●Kelby Tomlinson 2015 · AA	25	49→59	35→40	58→60	44	228/279/285	57	300	2	29	24%	6%	56	-1.3	268/322/340	72	331	3	24	19%	7%	89	+0.9	281/340/350	69	342	3	24	17%	7%	94	+1.0
✕Kenny Wilson 2015 · AAA	25	46→51	38→40	56→60	38	215/268/293	79	305	4	27	30%	5%	54	-1.4	224/281/313	89	311	6	26	28%	6%	65	-0.7	195/262/289	94	302	8	22	35%	6%	49	-0.7
✕Delino DeShields 2019 · MLB	26	48→55	39→45	56→65	53	229/312/314	85	296	7	31	23%	10%	79	+0.3	231/310/325	94	305	7	28	24%	10%	81	+0.4	229/311/318	89	307	6	31	25%	10%	77	+0.1
✕Yonny Hernández 2023 · MLB	25	46→56	36→30	61→60	54	215/307/283	68	268	3	39	20%	10%	69	-0.4	227/309/297	70	291	4	22	21%	9%	73	-0.1	268/330/326	58	319	3	17	16%	7%	84	+0.3
✕Adam Engel 2017 · AAA	25	44→48	41→50	61→60	40	211/268/314	102	303	7	33	31%	6%	59	-1.1	206/263/323	117	291	10	20	31%	6%	60	-1.0	224/280/353	129	300	12	21	28%	5%	73	-0.1
✕D.J. Burt 2021 · AA	25	43→51	40	55→65	42	206/260/293	87	287	7	26	30%	7%	50	-1.7	231/298/315	84	322	6	36	27%	8%	72	-0.2	239/310/313	74	330	4	49	26%	9%	74	-0.0
✕Josh Prince 2013 · AA	25	45→49	38→40	53→60	45	214/273/298	84	282	5	29	25%	7%	57	-1.2	207/278/298	91	277	8	28	26%	8%	60	-1.0	220/298/303	83	297	8	28	26%	10%	67	-0.3
✕John Andreoli 2015 · AA	25	51→58	36→45	63→60	49	235/306/301	67	315	2	35	24%	9%	72	-0.2	224/299/337	113	310	9	32	28%	9%	79	+0.3	221/301/349	128	309	11	29	30%	9%	80	+0.3
✕Tyler Holt 2015 · MLB	26	50→58	36→40	56→55	48	235/297/304	69	303	3	24	22%	8%	69	-0.4	240/305/306	66	312	2	23	22%	8%	72	-0.2	253/320/312	58	323	0	23	20%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Garrett Hampson 2020 · MLB	25	48→54	41→45	59→60	45	233/285/335	102	297	8	28	24%	7%	72	-0.2	210/267/321	111	277	10	22	26%	7%	61	-1.0	244/308/328	85	331	3	22	25%	8%	78	+0.1
✕Drew Maggi 2015 · AA	26	49→54	37→45	52→60	46	233/295/305	72	297	5	29	22%	7%	69	-0.4	236/296/308	72	303	4	23	22%	6%	70	-0.3	248/308/330	82	332	5	18	25%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Lucius Fox 2021 · AAA	24	43→48	38→40	56→60	46	205/280/287	82	284	5	27	28%	8%	59	-1.1	203/269/300	97	292	8	24	31%	8%	57	-1.2	189/253/276	87	274	8	24	32%	7%	41	-0.9
✕Wilfredo Tovar 2017 · AAA	25	51→56	36→40	54→60	46	237/276/300	63	271	3	28	14%	5%	58	-1.2	234/273/315	81	277	6	19	17%	5%	61	-1.0	248/292/332	85	286	6	11	15%	6%	71	-0.2
✕Elian Herrera 2011 · AAA	26	49→55	38→40	58→60	45	229/288/306	77	313	5	29	27%	7%	66	-0.6	235/297/318	83	320	5	23	26%	8%	72	-0.2	247/288/343	96	319	7	10	24%	5%	71	-0.2
✕Jacob Young 2023 · A	24	49→58	36→40	62→60	46	227/293/293	66	298	3	28	23%	7%	65	-0.7	248/307/329	81	310	4	32	20%	6%	79	+0.3	251/311/329	77	310	4	35	19%	6%	79	+0.2
✕Darren Ford 2011 · AA	25	45→53	41→45	59→65	42	218/274/323	105	299	8	31	29%	6%	65	-0.7	225/272/320	95	307	8	37	28%	6%	63	-0.9	224/271/302	78	307	6	49	27%	5%	54	-0.7