Christian Cairo

SS Syracuse Mets
Age 26 R/R 5'8" / 185 lbs AAA H -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAA40-MANPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
OGV OFP35OGV rank#2237ETA2028MLB%30%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202423AAA/AACLE413.240/.360/.32642676—.226/.316/.296
202524AAACLE416.237/.341/.33123366—.215/.298/.286
202625AAANYM525.230/.384/.30042580—.223/.337/.280
2027PROJ30% MLB26MLBNYM46.204/.305/.2680273-0.0
2028PROJ42% MLB27MLBNYM93.205/.305/.27214730.0
2029PROJ48% MLB28MLBNYM120.205/.303/.2741573-0.0
Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Chase%94
BB%93
K%85
Whiff%76
Z-Con%72
Max EV48
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%
CompsJack Dunn (age 27) · Kenny Wilson (age 26) · Nook Logan (age 26)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†73
AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .305 / .268
PA46
HR0
K%22
BB%11
BABIP266
ISO25
MLB%30%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -5.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-5BATRUN: +0.8 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +1.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.20+0.2WAR
0.00.51.00.10.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT45
scouting grade only
POWER35
scouting grade only
EYE50
scouting grade only
SPEED60
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.3M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201918 ROKAZL Indians Red — 179146 26310 25407 73 178326212538 34243 2214 268 11 — — — — — —
202120 A+Lake County Captains — 8671 19503 12212 41 268388465853 197340 2414 377 85 — — — — — —
202120 ALynchburg Hillcats — 229181 38623 37638 152 210367315682 105299 2816 320 54 — — — — — —
202221 A+Lake County Captains — 235187 37812 41647 102 198362283645 86289 2717 312 51 — — — — — —
202221 ROKACL Guardians — 1915 3000 430 00 200368200568 250 1621 290 24 — — — — — —
202322 A+Lake County Captains — 229188 45633 39442 105 239376351727 112298 1917 338 71 — — — — — —
202322 INTLPeoria Javelinas — 4738 11001 6112 21 289413368781 79370 2313 357 128 — — — — — —
202423 AAAColumbus Clippers — 257210 49532 40582 124 233361314675 81305 2316 312 70 — — — — — —
202423 AAAkron RubberDucks — 156131 33412 19383 140 252359344703 92330 2412 320 85 — — — — — —
202524 AAAColumbus Clippers — 416354 842132 459711 337 237341331672 93317 2311 308 66 — — — — — —
202625 AAASyracuse Mets — 525413 951514 927611 2512 230384300684 70270 1418 323 80 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201918 ROK MLEAZL Indians Red — 179155 20210 16587 73 129242155396 26190 329 184 11 — — — — — —
202120 A+ MLELake County Captains — 8674 16402 9282 41 216318351669 135305 3310 294 85 — — — — — —
202120 A MLELynchburg Hillcats — 229192 32522 26858 152 167292245537 78267 3711 248 54 — — — — — —
202221 A+ MLELake County Captains — 235197 31611 31807 102 157294213507 56254 3413 243 51 — — — — — —
202221 ROK MLEACL Guardians — 1917 2000 240 00 118211118328 202 2111 203 24 — — — — — —
202322 A+ MLELake County Captains — 229198 39522 29542 105 197306273578 76267 2413 273 71 — — — — — —
202423 AAA MLEColumbus Clippers — 257222 47431 28742 124 212306270576 59300 2911 271 70 — — — — — —
202423 AA MLEAkron RubberDucks — 156136 34412 14473 140 250333338672 88342 309 294 85 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLEColumbus Clippers — 416367 791731 3212211 337 215298286584 71307 298 266 66 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLESyracuse Mets — 525440 981413 659111 2512 223337280617 57267 1712 287 80 — — — — — —
201918 ROK MLEAZL Indians Red — 179155 20210 16587 73 129242155396 26204 329 184 11 — — — — — —
201918 ROK RAWAZL Indians Red — 179146 26310 25407 73 178326212538 34243 2214 268 11 — — — — — —
202120 A MLE2 teams — 315267 49925 3411310 193 184299288587 105291 3611 261 62 — — — — — —
202120 A RAW2 teams — 315252 571126 498410 193 226373357730 131311 2716 336 62 — — — — — —
202221 A+ MLE2 teams — 254214 33611 33847 102 154287206493 51248 3313 240 49 — — — — — —
202221 A+ RAW2 teams — 254202 40812 45677 102 198362277639 79286 2618 310 49 — — — — — —
202322 A+ MLE2 teams — 276236 49733 35654 126 208320301621 93272 2413 273 71 — — — — — —
202322 A+ RAW2 teams — 276226 56634 45554 126 248382354736 106310 2016 341 71 — — — — — —
202423 AAA MLE2 teams — 413358 81843 421215 264 226316296612 70324 2910 280 75 — — — — — —
202423 AAA RAW2 teams — 413341 82944 59965 264 240360326686 85315 2314 315 75 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLEColumbus Clippers — 416367 791731 3212211 337 215298286584 71315 298 266 66 — — — — — —
202524 AAA RAWColumbus Clippers — 416354 842132 459711 337 237341331672 93317 2311 308 66 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLESyracuse Mets — 525440 981413 659111 2512 223337280617 57271 1712 287 80 — — — — — —
202625 AAA RAWSyracuse Mets — 525413 951514 927611 2512 230384300684 70270 1418 323 80 — — — — — —
201918 ROK MLEAZL Indians Red — 179154 20210 16587 73 130242156397 26190 329 184 11 — — — — — —
202120 A MLE2 teams — 315268 49925 3411310 193 183299287586 104277 3611 261 62 — — — — — —
202221 A+ MLE2 teams — 254212 33611 33847 102 156287208495 52250 3313 240 49 — — — — — —
202322 A+ MLE2 teams — 276235 49733 35654 126 209320302622 94267 2413 273 71 — — — — — —
202423 AAA MLE2 teams — 413363 81843 421215 264 223316292608 69316 2910 280 75 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLEColumbus Clippers — 416370 791731 3212211 337 214298284581 70307 298 266 66 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLESyracuse Mets — 525444 981413 659111 2512 221337277614 56267 1712 287 80 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202423 AAA MLE2 teams — 413363 81843 421215 264 223316292608 69316 2910 280 75 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLEColumbus Clippers — 416370 791731 3212211 337 214298284581 70307 298 266 66 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLESyracuse Mets — 525444 981413 659111 2512 221337277614 56267 1712 287 80 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202726 MLB MLENYM 30% 380329 691222 40868 176 210311277588 67275 2311 276 73 -12 +1 +0 +4 +8 0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202726 MLB CTXNYM 30% 4640 7100 5101 21 204305268574 64266 2211 270 73 -1 +0 +0 +0 +1 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202827 MLB MLENYM 42% 225195 42712 24514 103 211310281592 70275 2311 277 73 -7 +1 +0 +2 +5 0.1
202928 MLB MLENYM 48% 253220 46812 26585 103 211309283592 72275 2310 276 73 -8 +1 -1 +3 +5 0.0
203029 MLB MLENYM 49% 263229 48812 27615 93 211307284591 73275 2310 275 73 -9 +1 -1 +3 +6 -0.1
202827 MLB CTXNYM 42% 9381 17301 10212 41 205305272577 68267 2311 271 73 -3 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.0
202928 MLB CTXNYM 48% 120104 22411 13272 52 205303274578 69267 2211 271 73 -4 +0 -0 +1 +3 -0.0
203029 MLB CTXNYM 49% 129113 24411 13302 42 205301275576 70266 2310 270 73 -4 +0 -1 +1 +3 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 342298 631123 36786 135 211309292601 81274 2311 270 67 -11 +1 -1 +4 +7 -0.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650566 1202146 6814811 2510 212308295603 83274 2310 270 67 -21 +1 -2 +7 +14 -0.1
Career— MLE — 32742816 574911923 35085972 16848 204308274582 70282 2611 267 67 -29 +3 -2 +10 +19 0.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650559 1151845 6917114 3310 206308279587 73284 2611 267 67 -21 +2 -2 +7 +14 0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 525 PAwOBA .317 → .287 (−31)K% 14.5% → 17.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.48%÷1.000×1.200——17.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.33%÷1.000×0.690—×1.03312.35%
HBP% /PA2.10%—×0.940—×1.0332.03%
Singles /BIP22.26%÷1.000×0.930×1.050×1.03322.45%
Doubles /BIP4.45%÷1.000×0.830×1.050×1.0334.01%
Triples /BIP0.30%÷1.000×0.970×1.050×1.0330.31%
Home runs /BIP1.19%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0330.86%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .317 → .287; ISO .070 → .063; BABIP .270 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAColumbus Clippers · 416 PAwOBA .303 → .266 (−37)K% 23.3% → 29.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.32%÷0.956×1.200——29.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.82%÷1.014×0.690—×1.0487.72%
HBP% /PA2.64%—×0.940—×1.0482.60%
Singles /BIP22.57%÷0.997×0.930×1.040×1.04822.95%
Doubles /BIP8.17%÷1.064×0.830×1.040×1.0486.94%
Triples /BIP1.17%÷1.042×0.970×1.040×1.0481.18%
Home runs /BIP0.78%÷1.093×0.700—×1.0480.52%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 99, 2B 113, 3B 108, K 91, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.

Result: wOBA .303 → .266; ISO .093 → .077; BABIP .317 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAColumbus Clippers · 257 PAwOBA .310 → .271 (−39)K% 22.6% → 28.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.57%÷0.939×1.200——28.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.56%÷1.036×0.690—×1.05010.88%
HBP% /PA0.78%—×0.940—×1.0500.77%
Singles /BIP25.66%÷0.977×0.930×0.991×1.05025.41%
Doubles /BIP3.29%÷0.985×0.830×0.991×1.0502.88%
Triples /BIP1.97%÷0.900×0.970×0.991×1.0502.21%
Home runs /BIP1.32%÷1.060×0.700—×1.0500.91%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 95, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 88, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .310 → .271; ISO .081 → .073; BABIP .305 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAkron RubberDucks · 156 PAwOBA .318 → .294 (−24)K% 24.4% → 30.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.36%÷0.980×1.220——30.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.18%÷0.987×0.700—×1.0278.87%
HBP% /PA1.92%—×0.850—×1.0271.68%
Singles /BIP27.96%÷0.993×0.970×1.050×1.02729.45%
Doubles /BIP4.30%÷0.944×0.860×1.050×1.0274.22%
Triples /BIP1.08%÷1.023×0.950×1.050×1.0271.08%
Home runs /BIP2.15%÷0.966×0.780—×1.0271.78%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 89, 3B 105, K 96, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .318 → .294; ISO .092 → .083; BABIP .330 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Lake County Captains · 229 PAwOBA .330 → .273 (−57)K% 19.2% → 23.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.21%÷1.028×1.270——23.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.03%÷0.971×0.710—×1.01212.60%
HBP% /PA0.87%—×0.790—×1.0120.70%
Singles /BIP22.92%÷1.011×0.920×0.992×1.01220.94%
Doubles /BIP4.17%÷0.900×0.810×0.992×1.0123.76%
Triples /BIP2.08%÷1.150×0.850×0.992×1.0121.55%
Home runs /BIP2.08%÷1.060×0.800—×1.0121.59%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 102, 2B 80, 3B 130, K 106, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .330 → .273; ISO .112 → .089; BABIP .298 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Lake County Captains · 235 PAwOBA .305 → .243 (−63)K% 27.2% → 34.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.23%÷1.015×1.270——34.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.45%÷0.975×0.710—×1.02713.05%
HBP% /PA2.98%—×0.790—×1.0272.42%
Singles /BIP21.14%÷0.983×0.920×0.950×1.02719.30%
Doubles /BIP6.50%÷1.005×0.810×0.950×1.0275.11%
Triples /BIP0.81%÷0.970×0.850×0.950×1.0270.70%
Home runs /BIP1.63%÷1.134×0.800—×1.0271.18%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 94, K 103, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .305 → .243; ISO .086 → .064; BABIP .289 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Guardians · 19 PAwOBA .284 → .203 (−81)K% 15.8% → 22.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.79%÷1.019×1.440——22.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA21.05%÷1.013×0.620—×0.98512.69%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷0.998×0.820—×0.98520.24%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.076×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.915×0.780—×0.9850.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 100, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .284 → .203; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .250 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ALynchburg Hillcats · 229 PAwOBA .316 → .248 (−68)K% 27.5% → 37.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.51%÷1.008×1.360——37.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.16%÷1.024×0.690—×1.03011.22%
HBP% /PA3.49%—×0.780—×1.0302.81%
Singles /BIP22.88%÷1.014×0.920×0.979×1.03020.93%
Doubles /BIP5.08%÷0.988×0.830×0.979×1.0304.31%
Triples /BIP1.69%÷1.150×0.910×0.979×1.0301.35%
Home runs /BIP2.54%÷0.950×0.800—×1.0302.20%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 103, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 102, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .316 → .248; ISO .105 → .084; BABIP .299 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .