D.J. Burt
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 368 | .248/.326/.323 | 3 | 29 | 52 | — | .184/.244/.256 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAMIN | 247 | .298/.381/.405 | 3 | 21 | 85 | — | .260/.324/.341 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA/AA/A+CWS | 382 | .261/.364/.347 | 3 | 47 | 67 | — | .230/.303/.297 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 18 | ROK | Burlington Royals | — | 163 | 144 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 25 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 215 | 302 | 264 | 566 | 49 | 246 | 15 | 9 | 267 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 303 | 248 | 72 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 40 | 58 | 3 | 20 | 7 | 290 | 395 | 391 | 786 | 101 | 372 | 19 | 13 | 345 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Lexington Legends | — | 542 | 474 | 122 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 51 | 108 | 7 | 43 | 17 | 257 | 338 | 338 | 676 | 80 | 322 | 20 | 9 | 305 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 445 | 365 | 83 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 64 | 101 | 5 | 32 | 13 | 227 | 350 | 307 | 657 | 79 | 310 | 23 | 14 | 302 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 486 | 410 | 115 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 59 | 98 | 0 | 32 | 10 | 280 | 371 | 371 | 742 | 90 | 357 | 20 | 12 | 327 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | INTL | Melbourne Aces | — | 160 | 133 | 45 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 19 | 3 | 18 | 7 | 338 | 439 | 466 | 906 | 128 | 381 | 12 | 13 | 400 | 157 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 296 | 257 | 58 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 66 | 1 | 26 | 10 | 226 | 307 | 304 | 610 | 78 | 288 | 22 | 10 | 274 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | INTL | Melbourne Aces | — | 72 | 65 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 338 | 403 | 400 | 803 | 62 | 386 | 11 | 8 | 365 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 247 | 215 | 64 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 58 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 298 | 381 | 405 | 786 | 107 | 391 | 23 | 12 | 352 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 33 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 207 | 303 | 241 | 544 | 34 | 286 | 24 | 12 | 261 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 322 | 276 | 74 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 53 | 3 | 39 | 7 | 268 | 367 | 351 | 718 | 83 | 321 | 16 | 12 | 329 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 27 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 238 | 407 | 429 | 836 | 190 | 357 | 26 | 22 | 375 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | Burlington Royals | — | 163 | 149 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 174 | 241 | 221 | 462 | 47 | 202 | 22 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 303 | 264 | 56 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 24 | 84 | 3 | 20 | 7 | 212 | 285 | 284 | 569 | 72 | 284 | 28 | 8 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 542 | 496 | 112 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 141 | 7 | 43 | 17 | 226 | 278 | 288 | 567 | 63 | 292 | 26 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 445 | 388 | 75 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 41 | 143 | 5 | 32 | 13 | 193 | 279 | 255 | 534 | 62 | 288 | 32 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 486 | 435 | 108 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 138 | 0 | 32 | 10 | 248 | 303 | 331 | 634 | 83 | 328 | 28 | 7 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 296 | 266 | 49 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 1 | 26 | 10 | 184 | 244 | 256 | 500 | 71 | 235 | 28 | 7 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 247 | 223 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 71 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 260 | 324 | 341 | 665 | 81 | 361 | 29 | 9 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 33 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 200 | 273 | 233 | 506 | 33 | 260 | 30 | 9 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 322 | 289 | 69 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 65 | 3 | 39 | 7 | 239 | 310 | 308 | 618 | 69 | 294 | 20 | 8 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 27 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 167 | 259 | 250 | 509 | 83 | 288 | 37 | 11 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | Burlington Royals | — | 163 | 149 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 174 | 241 | 221 | 462 | 47 | 214 | 22 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK RAW | Burlington Royals | — | 163 | 144 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 25 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 215 | 302 | 264 | 566 | 49 | 246 | 15 | 9 | 267 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 303 | 264 | 56 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 24 | 84 | 3 | 20 | 7 | 212 | 285 | 284 | 569 | 72 | 304 | 28 | 8 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK RAW | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 303 | 248 | 72 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 40 | 58 | 3 | 20 | 7 | 290 | 395 | 391 | 786 | 101 | 372 | 19 | 13 | 345 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 542 | 496 | 112 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 141 | 7 | 43 | 17 | 226 | 278 | 288 | 567 | 63 | 305 | 26 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A RAW | Lexington Legends | — | 542 | 474 | 122 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 51 | 108 | 7 | 43 | 17 | 257 | 338 | 338 | 676 | 80 | 322 | 20 | 9 | 305 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 445 | 388 | 75 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 41 | 143 | 5 | 32 | 13 | 193 | 279 | 255 | 534 | 62 | 301 | 32 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ RAW | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 445 | 365 | 83 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 64 | 101 | 5 | 32 | 13 | 227 | 350 | 307 | 657 | 79 | 310 | 23 | 14 | 302 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 646 | 578 | 143 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 45 | 183 | 3 | 50 | 17 | 247 | 305 | 329 | 634 | 81 | 348 | 28 | 7 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 646 | 543 | 160 | 21 | 9 | 5 | 80 | 117 | 3 | 50 | 17 | 295 | 388 | 394 | 782 | 99 | 363 | 18 | 12 | 345 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 332 | 59 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 104 | 2 | 29 | 11 | 178 | 240 | 238 | 478 | 60 | 246 | 28 | 7 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 368 | 322 | 80 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 35 | 74 | 2 | 29 | 11 | 248 | 326 | 323 | 649 | 75 | 310 | 20 | 10 | 292 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 247 | 223 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 71 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 260 | 324 | 341 | 665 | 81 | 368 | 29 | 9 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA RAW | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 247 | 215 | 64 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 58 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 298 | 381 | 405 | 786 | 107 | 391 | 23 | 12 | 352 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 382 | 343 | 77 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 85 | 3 | 47 | 7 | 224 | 298 | 289 | 587 | 64 | 292 | 22 | 9 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 382 | 326 | 85 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 50 | 68 | 3 | 47 | 7 | 261 | 364 | 347 | 711 | 86 | 320 | 18 | 13 | 326 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | Burlington Royals | — | 163 | 149 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 174 | 241 | 221 | 462 | 47 | 202 | 22 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 303 | 273 | 56 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 24 | 84 | 3 | 20 | 7 | 205 | 285 | 275 | 560 | 70 | 284 | 28 | 8 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 542 | 501 | 112 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 141 | 7 | 43 | 17 | 224 | 278 | 285 | 564 | 62 | 292 | 26 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 445 | 396 | 75 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 41 | 143 | 5 | 32 | 13 | 189 | 279 | 250 | 529 | 61 | 288 | 32 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 646 | 593 | 143 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 45 | 183 | 3 | 50 | 17 | 241 | 305 | 320 | 626 | 79 | 328 | 28 | 7 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 338 | 59 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 104 | 2 | 29 | 11 | 175 | 240 | 234 | 473 | 59 | 235 | 28 | 7 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 247 | 224 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 71 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 259 | 324 | 339 | 663 | 80 | 361 | 29 | 9 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 382 | 343 | 77 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 85 | 3 | 47 | 7 | 224 | 298 | 289 | 587 | 64 | 291 | 22 | 9 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3096 | 2773 | 606 | 78 | 28 | 18 | 228 | 847 | 26 | 249 | 82 | 219 | 284 | 286 | 570 | 68 | 304 | 27 | 7 | 251 | 56 | -163 | +17 | +0 | +11 | +67 | -7.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 582 | 127 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 48 | 178 | 5 | 52 | 17 | 218 | 283 | 287 | 570 | 69 | 304 | 27 | 7 | 251 | 56 | -34 | +4 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AABirmingham Barons · 322 PAwOBA .322 → .275 (−47)K% 16.5% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.46% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.42% | ÷0.993 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 8.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.01% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.013 | ×0.978 | 23.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.38% | ÷0.947 | ×0.910 | ×1.013 | ×0.978 | 5.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.45% | ÷0.987 | ×0.880 | ×1.013 | ×0.978 | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.35% | ÷1.056 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 1.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 89, 3B 97, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .322 → .275; ISO .083 → .073; BABIP .321 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAACharlotte Knights · 33 PAwOBA .255 → .207 (−48)K% 24.2% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.24% | ÷0.975 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.12% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 8.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.81% | ÷1.003 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 22.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.028 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 3.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.421 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 184, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 95, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .255 → .207; ISO .034 → .027; BABIP .286 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 27 PAwOBA .367 → .253 (−114)K% 25.9% → 35.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.93% | ÷0.953 | ×1.310 | — | — | 35.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 22.22% | ÷1.037 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.958 | 12.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷0.956 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 18.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.056 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 10.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.955 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 91, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 91, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .367 → .253; ISO .190 → .135; BABIP .357 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAWichita Wind Surge · 247 PAwOBA .346 → .294 (−52)K% 23.5% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.48% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.74% | ÷0.950 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.988 | 8.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.57% | ÷0.989 | ×0.940 | ×1.011 | ×0.988 | 29.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.64% | ÷1.040 | ×0.870 | ×1.011 | ×0.988 | 6.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.64% | ÷0.908 | ×0.920 | ×1.011 | ×0.988 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.91% | ÷1.104 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 1.33% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 98, 2B 108, 3B 82, K 99, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .346 → .294; ISO .107 → .084; BABIP .391 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 296 PAwOBA .270 → .215 (−55)K% 22.3% → 28.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.30% | ÷0.962 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.80% | ÷1.001 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.34% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.08% | ÷1.083 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 19.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.66% | ÷0.986 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 3.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.091 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.57% | ÷0.901 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.41% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 117, 2B 97, 3B 118, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .270 → .215; ISO .078 → .067; BABIP .288 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 486 PAwOBA .322 → .271 (−51)K% 20.2% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.16% | ÷1.010 | ×1.420 | — | — | 28.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.93% | ÷1.077 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 6.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.17% | ÷1.021 | ×0.940 | ×1.017 | ×0.998 | 27.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.49% | ÷1.005 | ×0.830 | ×1.017 | ×0.998 | 3.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.24% | ÷0.965 | ×0.800 | ×1.017 | ×0.998 | 1.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.96% | ÷0.773 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 1.12% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 55, 1B 104, 2B 101, 3B 93, K 102, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .322 → .271; ISO .090 → .084; BABIP .357 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 445 PAwOBA .297 → .241 (−55)K% 22.7% → 32.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.70% | ÷1.002 | ×1.420 | — | — | 32.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.16% | ÷0.979 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 9.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.12% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.35% | ÷1.017 | ×0.940 | ×1.024 | ×1.012 | 21.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.20% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | ×1.024 | ×1.012 | 6.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.89% | ÷1.025 | ×0.800 | ×1.024 | ×1.012 | 1.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.810 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 62, 1B 103, 2B 96, 3B 105, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .297 → .241; ISO .079 → .066; BABIP .310 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ALexington Legends · 542 PAwOBA .301 → .245 (−56)K% 19.9% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.93% | ÷1.026 | ×1.340 | — | — | 26.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.41% | ÷1.177 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 5.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.29% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 1.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.50% | ÷0.965 | ×0.920 | ×0.973 | ×1.015 | 24.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.37% | ÷1.113 | ×0.820 | ×0.973 | ×1.015 | 3.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.37% | ÷0.991 | ×0.940 | ×0.973 | ×1.015 | 1.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.09% | ÷1.317 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 0.69% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 93, 2B 123, 3B 98, K 105, BB 135 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .301 → .245; ISO .080 → .060; BABIP .322 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .