Elih Marrero
C Omaha Storm Chasers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27 | AAA/AABOS | 198 | .260/.332/.452 | 7 | 11 | 65 | — | .219/.276/.374 |
| 2025 | 28 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 105 | .242/.314/.432 | 2 | 2 | 84 | — | .180/.206/.230 |
| 2026 | 29 | AAAKC | 131 | .240/.275/.376 | 0 | 3 | 38 | — | .197/.221/.307 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 30 | MLBKC | 10 | .218/.271/.333 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 31 | MLBKC | 26 | .215/.268/.327 | 0 | 0 | 69 | -0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 100 | 83 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 289 | 398 | 349 | 747 | 60 | 338 | 14 | 14 | 341 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 50 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 191 | 240 | 298 | 538 | 106 | 211 | 16 | 6 | 243 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 206 | 174 | 50 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 38 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 287 | 383 | 397 | 780 | 109 | 353 | 18 | 12 | 346 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 289 | 246 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 74 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 207 | 321 | 272 | 593 | 65 | 287 | 26 | 13 | 280 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 131 | 108 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 33 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 269 | 397 | 370 | 767 | 102 | 378 | 25 | 17 | 355 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 15 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 267 | 462 | 728 | 308 | 250 | 53 | 7 | 320 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 183 | 164 | 44 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 39 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 268 | 337 | 451 | 788 | 183 | 317 | 21 | 9 | 346 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 63 | 60 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 233 | 270 | 300 | 570 | 67 | 333 | 29 | 5 | 258 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 42 | 35 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 257 | 381 | 657 | 1.038 | 400 | 304 | 24 | 14 | 436 | 181 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 131 | 125 | 30 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 240 | 275 | 376 | 651 | 136 | 326 | 25 | 4 | 288 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 100 | 89 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 286 | 258 | 544 | 45 | 254 | 20 | 8 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 50 | 48 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 180 | 229 | 409 | 83 | 190 | 24 | 4 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 206 | 181 | 44 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 51 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 243 | 318 | 331 | 650 | 88 | 308 | 25 | 9 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 289 | 258 | 48 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 91 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 186 | 268 | 240 | 509 | 54 | 270 | 31 | 9 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 131 | 115 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 40 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 235 | 328 | 313 | 641 | 78 | 346 | 31 | 11 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 15 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 267 | 462 | 728 | 308 | 204 | 67 | 7 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 183 | 169 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 46 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 225 | 276 | 367 | 643 | 142 | 269 | 25 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 63 | 61 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 180 | 206 | 230 | 436 | 49 | 298 | 37 | 3 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 131 | 127 | 25 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 197 | 221 | 307 | 528 | 110 | 282 | 31 | 2 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 100 | 89 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 286 | 258 | 544 | 45 | 268 | 20 | 8 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK RAW | GCL Red Sox | — | 100 | 83 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 289 | 398 | 349 | 747 | 60 | 338 | 14 | 14 | 341 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 50 | 48 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 180 | 229 | 409 | 83 | 171 | 24 | 4 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 50 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 191 | 240 | 298 | 538 | 106 | 211 | 16 | 6 | 243 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 206 | 181 | 44 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 51 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 243 | 318 | 331 | 650 | 88 | 323 | 25 | 9 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 206 | 174 | 50 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 38 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 287 | 383 | 397 | 780 | 109 | 353 | 18 | 12 | 346 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 289 | 258 | 48 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 91 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 186 | 268 | 240 | 509 | 54 | 277 | 31 | 9 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 289 | 246 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 74 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 207 | 321 | 272 | 593 | 65 | 287 | 26 | 13 | 280 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 131 | 115 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 40 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 235 | 328 | 313 | 641 | 78 | 351 | 31 | 11 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA RAW | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 131 | 108 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 33 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 269 | 397 | 370 | 767 | 102 | 378 | 25 | 17 | 355 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 198 | 183 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 56 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 208 | 260 | 339 | 599 | 131 | 268 | 28 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 198 | 177 | 46 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 47 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 260 | 332 | 452 | 784 | 192 | 315 | 24 | 9 | 344 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 105 | 101 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 38 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 188 | 219 | 238 | 457 | 50 | 302 | 36 | 3 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 105 | 95 | 23 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 242 | 314 | 432 | 746 | 189 | 323 | 27 | 9 | 329 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 131 | 127 | 25 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 197 | 221 | 307 | 528 | 110 | 287 | 31 | 2 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA RAW | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 131 | 125 | 30 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 240 | 275 | 376 | 651 | 136 | 326 | 25 | 4 | 288 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 100 | 91 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 286 | 253 | 538 | 44 | 254 | 20 | 8 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 50 | 48 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 180 | 229 | 409 | 83 | 190 | 24 | 4 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 206 | 184 | 44 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 51 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 239 | 318 | 326 | 644 | 87 | 308 | 25 | 9 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 289 | 258 | 48 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 91 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 186 | 268 | 240 | 509 | 54 | 270 | 31 | 9 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 131 | 114 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 40 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 237 | 328 | 316 | 644 | 79 | 346 | 31 | 11 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 198 | 183 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 56 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 208 | 260 | 339 | 599 | 131 | 264 | 28 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 105 | 100 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 38 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 190 | 219 | 240 | 459 | 50 | 298 | 36 | 3 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 131 | 126 | 25 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 198 | 221 | 310 | 531 | 111 | 282 | 31 | 2 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 198 | 183 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 56 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 208 | 260 | 339 | 599 | 131 | 264 | 28 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 105 | 100 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 38 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 190 | 219 | 240 | 459 | 50 | 298 | 36 | 3 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 131 | 126 | 25 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 198 | 221 | 310 | 531 | 111 | 282 | 31 | 2 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | KC | 10% | 200 | 184 | 40 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 54 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 220 | 273 | 338 | 611 | 119 | 288 | 27 | 6 | 273 | 71 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | KC | 10% | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 271 | 333 | 603 | 115 | 286 | 30 | 10 | 270 | 71 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | KC | 27% | 94 | 87 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 270 | 332 | 602 | 115 | 285 | 27 | 6 | 270 | 69 | -4 | +0 | -3 | +2 | +2 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | KC | 27% | 26 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 215 | 268 | 327 | 595 | 112 | 283 | 27 | 8 | 267 | 69 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 26 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 231 | 208 | 439 | 42 | 235 | 27 | 8 | 267 | 55 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 600 | 100 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 175 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 231 | 208 | 439 | 42 | 235 | 27 | 8 | 267 | 55 | -24 | +0 | -19 | +12 | +14 | -1.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1409 | 1286 | 268 | 64 | 4 | 14 | 99 | 401 | 12 | 59 | 23 | 208 | 271 | 297 | 568 | 89 | 289 | 28 | 7 | 250 | 55 | -7 | +0 | -3 | +4 | +4 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 124 | 30 | 2 | 6 | 46 | 185 | 6 | 27 | 11 | 209 | 273 | 297 | 570 | 88 | 291 | 28 | 7 | 250 | 55 | -23 | +1 | -9 | +12 | +14 | -0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 131 PAwOBA .280 → .225 (−56)K% 25.2% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.19% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 2.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.999 | ×0.982 | 13.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×0.982 | 13.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×0.982 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .280 → .225; ISO .136 → .107; BABIP .326 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 63 PAwOBA .252 → .198 (−53)K% 28.6% → 35.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷0.971 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷1.080 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 2.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.81% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 21.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷0.968 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 8.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.921 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.976 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 95, 2B 94, 3B 84, K 94, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .252 → .198; ISO .067 → .051; BABIP .333 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 183 PAwOBA .338 → .269 (−69)K% 21.3% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.31% | ÷1.033 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.74% | ÷1.025 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 5.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.55% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.80% | ÷1.004 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×0.978 | 19.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.60% | ÷1.165 | ×0.860 | ×0.983 | ×0.978 | 6.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.983 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.80% | ÷1.018 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 3.60% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .338 → .269; ISO .183 → .135; BABIP .317 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 15 PAwOBA .311 → .204 (−107)K% 53.3% → 63.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 53.33% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 63.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.049 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.67% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 6.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.036 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.951 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 17.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.143 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 14.10% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 129, K 101, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .311 → .204; ISO .308 → .177; BABIP .250 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 131 PAwOBA .347 → .283 (−64)K% 25.2% → 30.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.19% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.79% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 11.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷0.972 | ×0.970 | ×1.002 | ×0.988 | 26.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.67% | ÷1.144 | ×0.860 | ×1.002 | ×0.988 | 7.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.002 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.33% | ÷1.048 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.98% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 94, 2B 129, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .347 → .283; ISO .102 → .076; BABIP .378 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 289 PAwOBA .275 → .228 (−46)K% 25.6% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.61% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.49% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 9.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.69% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.67% | ÷0.983 | ×0.970 | ×0.996 | ×0.998 | 22.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.81% | ÷1.066 | ×0.860 | ×0.996 | ×0.998 | 4.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.996 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.16% | ÷1.004 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.90% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 97, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 99, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .275 → .228; ISO .065 → .051; BABIP .287 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Greenville Drive · 206 PAwOBA .345 → .283 (−62)K% 18.4% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.45% | ÷1.004 | ×1.350 | — | — | 24.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.14% | ÷1.004 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 8.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.97% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.032 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 22.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.29% | ÷1.104 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 8.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.74% | ÷1.094 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 0.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.74% | ÷0.891 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 0.68% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 106, 2B 121, 3B 119, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .345 → .283; ISO .109 → .087; BABIP .353 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Salem Red Sox · 50 PAwOBA .237 → .188 (−49)K% 16.0% → 23.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.00% | ÷0.958 | ×1.420 | — | — | 23.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.00% | ÷0.968 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 3.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷1.003 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.012 | 14.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.13% | ÷1.070 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 4.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.972 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.080 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 2.16% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 101, 2B 114, 3B 94, K 92, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .237 → .188; ISO .106 → .081; BABIP .211 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .