Felix Valerio
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | AAMIL | 480 | .228/.318/.357 | 12 | 30 | 57 | — | .197/.265/.306 |
| 2023 | 22 | AAMIL | 290 | .223/.288/.345 | 6 | 7 | 47 | — | .193/.243/.289 |
| 2024 | 23 | A+/ROKMIL | 235 | .256/.357/.355 | 3 | 10 | 50 | — | .193/.272/.264 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | — | 303 | 263 | 84 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 21 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 319 | 409 | 433 | 843 | 114 | 339 | 7 | 11 | 381 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Brewers Gold | — | 178 | 157 | 48 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 21 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 306 | 381 | 389 | 769 | 83 | 348 | 12 | 10 | 347 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 134 | 118 | 27 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 229 | 321 | 466 | 787 | 237 | 242 | 16 | 11 | 347 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 377 | 309 | 97 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 54 | 49 | 11 | 27 | 8 | 314 | 433 | 469 | 902 | 155 | 354 | 13 | 14 | 403 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 480 | 417 | 95 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 48 | 80 | 7 | 30 | 9 | 228 | 318 | 357 | 675 | 129 | 249 | 17 | 10 | 303 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 290 | 264 | 59 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 54 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 223 | 288 | 345 | 633 | 121 | 257 | 19 | 7 | 285 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 201 | 174 | 37 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 46 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 213 | 318 | 299 | 617 | 86 | 272 | 23 | 11 | 290 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | ROK | ACL Brewers | — | 34 | 29 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 517 | 588 | 690 | 1.278 | 172 | 625 | 15 | 12 | 557 | 146 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 1 | — | 303 | 274 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 26 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 208 | 284 | 266 | 550 | 58 | 223 | 9 | 8 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Brewers Gold | — | 178 | 163 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 30 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 221 | 278 | 276 | 554 | 55 | 264 | 17 | 6 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 134 | 122 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 30 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 172 | 246 | 344 | 591 | 172 | 198 | 22 | 8 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 377 | 326 | 85 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 67 | 11 | 27 | 8 | 261 | 356 | 377 | 733 | 117 | 304 | 18 | 10 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 480 | 432 | 85 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 100 | 7 | 30 | 9 | 197 | 265 | 306 | 570 | 109 | 221 | 21 | 7 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 290 | 270 | 52 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 71 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 193 | 243 | 289 | 532 | 96 | 240 | 24 | 4 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 201 | 181 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 59 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 166 | 249 | 227 | 475 | 61 | 230 | 29 | 8 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 34 | 31 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 355 | 412 | 484 | 896 | 129 | 465 | 21 | 6 | 384 | 146 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 1 | — | 303 | 274 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 26 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 208 | 284 | 266 | 550 | 58 | 227 | 9 | 8 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Mets 1 | — | 303 | 263 | 84 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 21 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 319 | 409 | 433 | 843 | 114 | 339 | 7 | 11 | 381 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Brewers Gold | — | 178 | 163 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 30 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 221 | 278 | 276 | 554 | 55 | 267 | 17 | 6 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Brewers Gold | — | 178 | 157 | 48 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 21 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 306 | 381 | 389 | 769 | 83 | 348 | 12 | 10 | 347 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 511 | 448 | 106 | 26 | 3 | 9 | 48 | 97 | 12 | 31 | 9 | 237 | 327 | 368 | 695 | 132 | 281 | 19 | 9 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 511 | 427 | 124 | 37 | 3 | 11 | 69 | 71 | 12 | 31 | 9 | 290 | 404 | 468 | 872 | 178 | 325 | 14 | 14 | 388 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 480 | 432 | 85 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 100 | 7 | 30 | 9 | 197 | 265 | 306 | 570 | 109 | 227 | 21 | 7 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | AA RAW | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 480 | 417 | 95 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 48 | 80 | 7 | 30 | 9 | 228 | 318 | 357 | 675 | 129 | 249 | 17 | 10 | 303 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 290 | 270 | 52 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 71 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 193 | 243 | 289 | 532 | 96 | 244 | 24 | 4 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA RAW | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 290 | 264 | 59 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 54 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 223 | 288 | 345 | 633 | 121 | 257 | 19 | 7 | 285 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 235 | 211 | 40 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 66 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 190 | 272 | 251 | 524 | 62 | 266 | 28 | 8 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 235 | 203 | 52 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 51 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 256 | 357 | 355 | 712 | 99 | 329 | 22 | 11 | 328 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 1 | — | 303 | 271 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 26 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 210 | 284 | 269 | 553 | 59 | 223 | 9 | 8 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Brewers Gold | — | 178 | 163 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 30 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 221 | 278 | 276 | 554 | 55 | 264 | 17 | 6 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 511 | 446 | 106 | 26 | 3 | 9 | 48 | 97 | 12 | 31 | 9 | 238 | 327 | 370 | 697 | 132 | 276 | 19 | 9 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 480 | 437 | 85 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 100 | 7 | 30 | 9 | 195 | 265 | 302 | 567 | 108 | 221 | 21 | 7 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 290 | 270 | 52 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 71 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 193 | 243 | 289 | 532 | 96 | 240 | 24 | 4 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 235 | 209 | 40 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 66 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 191 | 272 | 254 | 526 | 62 | 264 | 28 | 8 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 235 | 209 | 40 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 66 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 191 | 272 | 254 | 526 | 62 | 264 | 28 | 8 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1997 | 1798 | 376 | 74 | 9 | 26 | 147 | 390 | 37 | 110 | 36 | 209 | 283 | 304 | 586 | 95 | 251 | 20 | 7 | 262 | 63 | -87 | +8 | +0 | +21 | +43 | -1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 122 | 24 | 3 | 8 | 48 | 127 | 12 | 36 | 12 | 209 | 282 | 301 | 583 | 92 | 251 | 20 | 7 | 262 | 63 | -28 | +2 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 201 PAwOBA .283 → .219 (−63)K% 22.9% → 29.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.89% | ÷0.993 | ×1.270 | — | — | 29.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.44% | ÷0.995 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 8.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.99% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 1.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.66% | ÷1.022 | ×0.920 | ×0.972 | ×0.988 | 19.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.12% | ÷0.991 | ×0.810 | ×0.972 | ×0.988 | 2.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.972 | ×0.988 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.34% | ÷0.979 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.89% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 99, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .283 → .219; ISO .086 → .065; BABIP .272 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Brewers · 34 PAwOBA .543 → .384 (−159)K% 14.7% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.71% | ÷1.002 | ×1.440 | — | — | 21.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.014 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 6.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 2.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 45.83% | ÷1.015 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 35.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.088 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 7.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 3.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.947 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 103, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .543 → .384; ISO .172 → .117; BABIP .625 → .465. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AABiloxi Shuckers · 290 PAwOBA .279 → .237 (−42)K% 18.6% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.62% | ÷0.924 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 4.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.72% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 1.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.52% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 17.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.827 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 5.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.95% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.055 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.22% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 98, 2B 65, 3B 80, K 85, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .279 → .237; ISO .121 → .104; BABIP .257 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AABiloxi Shuckers · 480 PAwOBA .299 → .253 (−46)K% 16.7% → 20.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.976 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.79% | ÷1.027 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 6.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.46% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 1.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.88% | ÷1.060 | ×0.920 | ×0.972 | ×1.042 | 17.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.15% | ÷0.973 | ×0.910 | ×0.972 | ×1.042 | 3.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.59% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.972 | ×1.042 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.56% | ÷1.012 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 2.93% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 112, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 95, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .299 → .253; ISO .129 → .114; BABIP .249 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ACarolina Mudcats · 377 PAwOBA .396 → .321 (−75)K% 13.0% → 17.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.00% | ÷0.996 | ×1.360 | — | — | 17.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.32% | ÷1.017 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.92% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.62% | ÷0.990 | ×0.920 | ×0.977 | ×1.015 | 22.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.23% | ÷1.177 | ×0.830 | ×0.977 | ×1.015 | 6.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.15% | ÷1.052 | ×0.910 | ×0.977 | ×1.015 | 0.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.31% | ÷0.974 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.92% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 98, 2B 135, 3B 110, K 99, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .396 → .321; ISO .155 → .121; BABIP .354 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 134 PAwOBA .337 → .256 (−82)K% 16.4% → 22.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.42% | ÷1.001 | ×1.350 | — | — | 22.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.19% | ÷0.988 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 8.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.75% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.38% | ÷0.982 | ×0.910 | ×0.995 | ×1.027 | 8.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.54% | ÷1.132 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×1.027 | 10.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.956 | ×0.820 | ×0.995 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.21% | ÷1.155 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.027 | 3.84% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 96, 2B 126, 3B 91, K 100, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .337 → .256; ISO .237 → .170; BABIP .242 → .198. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKAZL Brewers Gold · 178 PAwOBA .342 → .248 (−94)K% 11.8% → 17.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.80% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 16.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 5.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.12% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 20.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 6.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .342 → .248; ISO .083 → .057; BABIP .348 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 DSLDSL Mets 1 · 303 PAwOBA .371 → .250 (−120)K% 6.9% → 8.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.93% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 8.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 7.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.98% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.996 | ×1.008 | 17.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.996 | ×1.008 | 4.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.996 | ×1.008 | 0.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.24% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.59% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .371 → .250; ISO .114 → .066; BABIP .339 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).