Jared Serna — OGILVIE

Jared SernaSS Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 24 R/R 5'7" / 174 lbs AAA HR -6%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION239 act + 159 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .272 / .308

PA159

HR3

SB5

K%20

BB%6

BABIP249

ISO96

MLB%40%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.2M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$7M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	19	ROK	2 teams	—	228	193	32	8	1	2	26	46	8	24	4	166	291	249	539	83	207	20	11	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK	2 teams	—	228	182	45	14	3	4	37	34	8	24	4	247	396	423	820	176	285	15	16	371	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK	3 teams	—	237	209	42	10	1	5	19	67	7	18	5	201	289	330	620	129	268	28	8	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK	3 teams	—	237	199	51	12	1	6	29	45	7	18	5	256	370	417	787	161	302	19	12	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A	3 teams	—	817	763	185	37	5	19	44	192	6	42	13	242	289	379	668	136	300	24	5	289	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A	3 teams	—	817	740	216	42	5	26	67	136	6	42	13	292	355	468	823	176	328	17	8	363	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	3 teams	—	591	537	106	29	0	11	33	139	14	15	11	197	262	313	575	115	241	24	6	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	3 teams	—	591	514	129	39	0	15	56	101	14	15	11	251	341	414	755	163	281	17	9	336	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	3 teams	—	678	624	123	13	3	3	43	138	7	30	11	197	257	242	499	45	247	20	6	229	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	3 teams	—	678	599	151	21	11	8	68	100	7	30	11	252	335	364	699	112	289	15	10	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	AAA	MIA	—	239	216	45	6	0	7	15	43	3	11	3	208	269	333	603	125	226	18	6	260	57	-12	+1	+0	+3	+7	-0.1
YTD	24	AAA	MIA	—	239	209	48	7	0	8	22	36	3	11	3	230	312	378	690	148	240	15	9	306	92	-2	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.8
ROS	24	AAA	MIA	40%	159	146	31	5	0	3	10	32	2	5	2	212	272	308	579	96	251	20	6	264	60	-7	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
ROS	24	MLB	MIA	40%	64	59	12	2	0	1	4	13	1	2	1	203	266	288	554	85	247	20	6	251	50	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
FULL	24	AAA	MIA	—	303	275	57	8	0	8	19	56	4	13	4	207	268	324	592	116	230	18	6	258	56	-15	+1	+0	+3	+9	-0.2
TOT	24	AAA	MIA	—	398	362	76	11	0	10	25	75	5	16	5	210	270	323	593	113	235	19	6	261	58	-19	+1	+0	+4	+11	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	MIA	49%	581	531	116	19	2	11	38	116	7	18	7	218	280	324	603	105	256	20	7	273	67	-22	+1	+0	+6	+16	0.2
2028	26	MLB	MIA	53%	609	555	123	21	2	13	41	123	8	19	7	222	285	337	622	115	258	20	7	278	71	-20	+1	+0	+7	+17	0.5
2029	27	MLB	MIA	54%	627	570	126	21	2	13	44	127	8	20	7	221	286	333	620	112	260	20	7	280	73	-19	+1	+0	+7	+18	0.7
2030	28	MLB	MIA	54%	631	573	128	22	2	14	45	129	8	19	7	223	289	342	631	119	260	20	7	281	73	-19	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.6
2031	29	MLB	MIA	53%	626	568	125	21	2	13	45	130	8	18	6	220	287	333	619	113	260	21	7	279	72	-20	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.4
2032	30	MLB	MIA	57%	618	562	124	21	2	13	44	130	7	16	6	221	285	335	620	114	259	21	7	276	70	-21	+1	-2	+7	+18	0.2
2027	25	MLB	MIA	49%	283	259	55	9	1	5	19	56	3	9	3	212	274	313	587	100	251	20	7	260	57	-14	+1	+0	+3	+8	-0.2
2028	26	MLB	MIA	53%	322	293	65	11	1	7	22	65	4	10	4	222	285	338	623	116	254	20	7	265	61	-14	+0	+0	+3	+9	-0.1
2029	27	MLB	MIA	54%	336	306	66	11	1	7	23	68	4	11	4	216	279	327	606	111	255	20	7	267	63	-14	+1	+0	+4	+10	-0.0
2030	28	MLB	MIA	54%	340	309	67	11	1	7	24	70	4	10	4	217	282	327	609	110	256	21	7	268	63	-14	+0	-0	+4	+10	-0.1
2031	29	MLB	MIA	53%	331	300	65	11	1	7	24	69	4	9	3	217	284	330	614	113	255	21	7	266	62	-14	+1	-1	+4	+9	-0.2
2032	30	MLB	MIA	57%	350	318	68	11	1	7	25	73	4	9	3	214	280	321	600	107	254	21	7	264	60	-16	+1	-1	+4	+10	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2026	1844	398	66	6	41	141	414	24	60	22	216	280	325	605	109	255	20	7	265	61	-90	+3	-2	+22	+57	-1.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	127	21	2	13	45	133	8	19	7	215	280	323	602	108	253	20	7	265	61	-29	+1	-1	+7	+18	-0.3
Career	—			—	6402	5831	1261	227	22	120	432	1369	90	244	86	216	281	324	605	108	261	21	7	270	65	-253	+14	-4	+69	+181	0.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	128	23	2	12	44	139	9	25	9	216	281	323	603	106	261	21	7	270	65	-26	+1	-0	+7	+18	0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	19	ROK	DSL Yankees 1	—	193	151	36	9	2	3	34	27	8	24	4	238	404	384	788	146	273	14	18	365	138	+8	+3	—	—	+5	1.7
2021	19	INTL	Charros de Jalisco	—	35	31	9	5	1	1	3	7	0	0	0	290	353	613	966	323	348	20	9	401	165	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2022	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	44	39	7	2	0	0	3	15	1	1	1	179	256	231	487	51	280	34	7	225	31	-3	-0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2022	20	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	160	129	39	9	1	6	25	24	6	16	4	302	438	527	965	225	333	15	16	427	185	+15	+2	—	—	+5	2.2
2022	20	INTL	Charros de Jalisco	—	33	31	5	1	0	0	1	6	0	1	0	161	188	194	381	32	200	18	3	170	-12	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2023	21	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	120	108	31	7	2	0	9	15	2	10	2	287	353	389	742	102	330	12	8	332	112	+2	+1	—	—	+3	0.6
2023	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	443	400	113	21	1	19	40	75	2	19	6	282	351	482	833	200	306	17	9	367	139	+20	+1	—	—	+13	3.4
2023	21	INTL	Charros de Jalisco	—	254	232	72	14	2	7	18	46	2	13	5	310	365	478	844	168	363	18	7	371	142	+12	+1	—	—	+7	2.0
2024	22	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	23	20	2	0	0	0	2	8	1	1	0	100	217	100	317		167	35	9	171	-11	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	22	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	175	154	41	13	0	2	14	33	5	3	3	266	347	390	736	123	322	19	8	330	111	+2	-1	—	—	+5	0.7
2024	22	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	393	340	86	26	0	13	40	60	8	11	8	253	345	444	789	191	268	15	10	348	124	+11	-1	—	—	+11	2.1
2025	23	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	41	34	8	2	0	0	7	6	0	5	0	235	366	294	660	59	286	15	17	314	99	-0	+1	—	—	+1	0.2
2025	23	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	437	386	86	8	2	3	42	69	5	15	10	223	307	277	584	54	262	16	10	272	66	-17	-1	—	—	+12	-0.5
2025	23	INTL	Charros de Jalisco	—	200	179	57	11	9	5	19	25	2	10	1	318	390	564	954	246	349	12	10	414	175	+17	+2	—	—	+6	2.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#5Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	6	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	4	44	247	316	328	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5
#6Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#6Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	2,052	42	61	221	282	332	+22	+12	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	14	20	221	282	332	+7.1	+3.9	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jared Serna (OGILVIE)	24	45	25	50	45	210/270/323	113	235	10	16	19%	6%	58	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Allen 2023 · MLB	24	44→54	41→40	47→50	46	217/271/312	96	266	9	13	22%	6%	60	-1.0	237/296/325	88	282	8	16	18%	7%	74	-0.1	242/303/316	74	289	6	16	17%	8%	72	-0.1
✕Colt Sedbrook 2010 · AA	25	45→44	38→30	51→50	48	214/305/293	79	273	6	14	22%	8%	72	-0.2	205/298/278	73	263	5	12	22%	8%	66	-0.6	176/285/222	46	228	2	12	21%	8%	45	-1.2
✕Ramón Rodríguez 2023 · AAA	24	48	40	50→45	43	232/275/316	84	280	8	9	20%	5%	63	-0.9	225/289/330	105	253	11	7	15%	7%	73	-0.1	215/285/319	104	236	12	5	15%	8%	66	-0.2
✕Franklin Rollin 2019 · AAA	23	44	40	50→55	41	211/255/302	91	263	7	18	22%	4%	50	-1.7	199/250/282	83	267	7	13	27%	5%	43	-2.2	144/191/181	37	204	3	13	30%	4%	-10	-1.4
✕Jose Cardona 2018 · AAA	24	47→48	41→40	47→50	43	228/267/320	92	267	8	14	18%	4%	60	-1.0	220/265/297	77	272	8	13	21%	5%	54	-1.4	211/260/267	56	265	7	13	22%	5%	41	-1.1
✕Alejandro Rivero 2013 · AAA	24	46	36→30	49→55	43	220/262/274	55	259	4	13	17%	4%	46	-2.0	231/278/275	44	270	2	16	15%	4%	53	-1.5	224/280/260	36	256	2	19	13%	6%	47	-0.9
✕Michael Guldberg 2023 · AA	24	45	39→45	50→55	45	217/283/304	87	281	7	13	24%	7%	64	-0.8	210/263/305	95	287	8	11	28%	6%	56	-1.3	176/213/260	83	241	8	10	30%	4%	17	-0.9
✕Jack Marder 2014 · AA	24	44	41→45	49→50	41	215/271/313	98	268	9	14	23%	5%	61	-1.0	229/292/341	112	282	10	9	22%	6%	78	+0.2	249/316/370	121	297	12	3	19%	5%	93	+0.6
✕Freddy Zamora 2023 · AA	24	47→51	40	49→50	45	222/290/309	87	298	7	11	27%	8%	69	-0.4	218/290/303	85	301	7	14	28%	8%	67	-0.5	216/292/293	76	294	6	16	26%	8%	62	-0.6
✕Ryan Leonards 2016 · AA	25	49	38→40	50	45	231/287/314	84	292	5	11	22%	6%	68	-0.5	215/278/300	85	281	6	8	24%	6%	61	-1.0	172/249/228	55	226	3	2	23%	6%	27	-0.9
✕Brodie Greene 2012 · AA	24	48→49	41→40	54→50	44	232/276/327	95	279	8	20	20%	5%	66	-0.6	221/267/296	75	262	5	12	17%	5%	54	-1.4	214/262/268	54	248	3	7	14%	6%	42	-1.4
✕Alfredo Lopez 2014 · AA	24	50	35→30	46→50	49	235/300/297	62	289	3	12	19%	8%	69	-0.4	226/283/290	64	284	2	15	20%	7%	59	-1.1	242/288/290	48	295	1	20	17%	5%	56	-0.4
✕Devin Lohman 2014 · AA	25	44→46	40	48→50	45	213/274/304	90	262	8	16	22%	6%	60	-1.0	209/262/292	83	274	7	11	25%	5%	52	-1.6	202/252/274	72	272	6	9	27%	5%	41	-1.1
✕Peeter Ramos 2006 · AA	24	49→54	35→40	52→50	45	230/278/286	56	277	4	13	18%	5%	56	-1.3	243/293/320	77	293	7	10	18%	6%	72	-0.2	248/300/324	76	296	7	9	18%	6%	73	-0.1
✕Jose Duarte 2009 · AA	24	50→56	38→40	53→55	45	238/283/319	80	296	6	21	21%	6%	66	-0.6	231/287/320	89	291	6	17	21%	7%	69	-0.4	236/303/327	91	295	6	14	21%	9%	75	-0.0
✕Nick Meyer 2022 · AAA	25	42	38→40	47→50	43	204/265/279	75	266	7	12	25%	6%	50	-1.7	216/287/315	99	282	11	15	26%	8%	69	-0.4	204/282/295	91	265	12	18	26%	9%	58	-0.5
✕Jack Reinheimer 2016 · AA	24	50→51	37→40	53→55	43	235/281/311	76	299	4	18	22%	6%	63	-0.8	223/274/292	69	293	4	16	24%	6%	56	-1.3	207/260/287	80	276	7	21	26%	6%	48	-1.1
✕Diego Madero 2016 · AAA	24	48→49	40→45	47→50	43	229/263/318	88	262	7	12	16%	4%	58	-1.2	253/289/351	98	292	8	16	16%	4%	77	+0.1	254/296/354	100	287	10	17	15%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Zach Gibbons 2018 · AA	24	50→49	40	50	47	238/287/330	93	279	7	12	18%	6%	72	-0.2	229/275/323	94	275	7	9	18%	6%	65	-0.7	229/273/323	94	271	6	6	17%	6%	61	-0.7
✕Matt Williams 2014 · AA	24	46→49	40→45	49→50	45	221/268/314	93	267	7	14	20%	6%	59	-1.1	219/284/292	73	283	4	14	22%	8%	61	-1.0	219/291/283	64	287	3	15	23%	9%	60	-0.6