Jared Serna
SS Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AAA/AA/A+2 orgs | 591 | .251/.341/.414 | 15 | 15 | 65 | — | .207/.271/.337 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 678 | .252/.335/.364 | 8 | 30 | 82 | — | .206/.270/.252 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAAMIA | 336 | .221/.306/.378 | 12 | 14 | 60 | — | .201/.267/.320 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLBMIA | 32 | .214/.290/.321 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 0.4 | |
| 2027PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBMIA | 63 | .217/.282/.315 | 1 | 3 | 75 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ45% MLB | 26 | MLBMIA | 140 | .218/.284/.320 | 3 | 6 | 77 | 0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ51% MLB | 27 | MLBMIA | 165 | .218/.284/.321 | 3 | 7 | 77 | 0.3 |
Tools · Recent Form · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Yankees 1 | — | 193 | 151 | 36 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 27 | 8 | 24 | 4 | 238 | 404 | 384 | 788 | 146 | 273 | 14 | 18 | 365 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | INTL | Charros de Jalisco | — | 35 | 31 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 290 | 353 | 613 | 966 | 323 | 348 | 20 | 9 | 401 | 157 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 44 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 179 | 256 | 231 | 487 | 51 | 280 | 34 | 7 | 225 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Yankees | — | 160 | 129 | 39 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 24 | 6 | 16 | 4 | 302 | 438 | 527 | 965 | 225 | 333 | 15 | 16 | 427 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | INTL | Charros de Jalisco | — | 33 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 161 | 188 | 194 | 381 | 32 | 200 | 18 | 3 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 120 | 108 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 287 | 353 | 389 | 742 | 102 | 330 | 12 | 8 | 332 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 443 | 400 | 113 | 21 | 1 | 19 | 40 | 75 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 282 | 351 | 482 | 833 | 200 | 306 | 17 | 9 | 367 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | INTL | Charros de Jalisco | — | 254 | 232 | 72 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 46 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 310 | 365 | 478 | 844 | 168 | 363 | 18 | 7 | 371 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 23 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100 | 217 | 100 | 317 | 167 | 35 | 9 | 171 | -18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 175 | 154 | 41 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 33 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 266 | 347 | 390 | 736 | 123 | 322 | 19 | 8 | 330 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 393 | 340 | 86 | 26 | 0 | 13 | 40 | 60 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 253 | 345 | 444 | 789 | 191 | 268 | 15 | 10 | 348 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 41 | 34 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 235 | 366 | 294 | 660 | 59 | 286 | 15 | 17 | 314 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 437 | 386 | 86 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 69 | 5 | 15 | 10 | 223 | 307 | 277 | 584 | 54 | 262 | 16 | 10 | 272 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | INTL | Charros de Jalisco | — | 200 | 179 | 57 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 25 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 318 | 390 | 564 | 954 | 246 | 349 | 12 | 10 | 414 | 166 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 32 | 28 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 290 | 321 | 612 | 107 | 286 | 25 | 9 | 271 | 78 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +1 | 0.4 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 336 | 294 | 65 | 10 | 0 | 12 | 32 | 59 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 221 | 306 | 378 | 684 | 156 | 235 | 18 | 10 | 304 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 32 | 28 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 290 | 321 | 612 | 107 | 286 | 25 | 9 | 271 | 69 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +1 | 0.4 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Yankees 1 | — | 193 | 160 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 33 | 8 | 24 | 4 | 144 | 290 | 212 | 503 | 69 | 172 | 17 | 13 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 44 | 40 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 125 | 186 | 150 | 336 | 25 | 242 | 48 | 5 | 164 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 160 | 139 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 35 | 6 | 16 | 4 | 216 | 319 | 360 | 678 | 144 | 254 | 22 | 9 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 120 | 112 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 259 | 303 | 348 | 651 | 89 | 298 | 17 | 4 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 443 | 415 | 99 | 18 | 1 | 14 | 25 | 105 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 239 | 285 | 388 | 673 | 149 | 282 | 24 | 6 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 23 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 95 | 174 | 95 | 269 | 160 | 43 | 4 | 141 | -18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 175 | 158 | 40 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 253 | 318 | 367 | 685 | 114 | 311 | 22 | 6 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 393 | 358 | 69 | 19 | 0 | 11 | 22 | 83 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 193 | 255 | 338 | 593 | 145 | 211 | 21 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 41 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 222 | 317 | 278 | 595 | 56 | 260 | 17 | 12 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 437 | 400 | 82 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 85 | 5 | 15 | 10 | 205 | 266 | 250 | 516 | 45 | 251 | 19 | 6 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 32 | 28 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 290 | 321 | 612 | 107 | 286 | 25 | 9 | 283 | 78 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +1 | 0.4 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 336 | 303 | 61 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 23 | 71 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 201 | 267 | 320 | 587 | 119 | 223 | 21 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 228 | 190 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 39 | 8 | 24 | 4 | 142 | 282 | 205 | 487 | 63 | 173 | 17 | 13 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 228 | 182 | 45 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 37 | 34 | 8 | 24 | 4 | 247 | 396 | 423 | 820 | 176 | 285 | 15 | 16 | 371 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | 3 teams | — | 237 | 208 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 65 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 197 | 289 | 322 | 611 | 125 | 259 | 27 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK RAW | 3 teams | — | 237 | 199 | 51 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 45 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 256 | 370 | 417 | 787 | 161 | 302 | 19 | 12 | 354 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 817 | 763 | 183 | 34 | 4 | 20 | 44 | 180 | 6 | 42 | 13 | 240 | 287 | 374 | 660 | 134 | 288 | 22 | 5 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 817 | 740 | 216 | 42 | 5 | 26 | 67 | 136 | 6 | 42 | 13 | 292 | 355 | 468 | 823 | 176 | 328 | 17 | 8 | 363 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 591 | 537 | 111 | 31 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 131 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 207 | 271 | 337 | 608 | 130 | 245 | 22 | 6 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 591 | 514 | 129 | 39 | 0 | 15 | 56 | 101 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 251 | 341 | 414 | 755 | 163 | 281 | 17 | 9 | 336 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 678 | 621 | 128 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 46 | 131 | 7 | 30 | 11 | 206 | 269 | 253 | 521 | 47 | 255 | 19 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 678 | 599 | 151 | 21 | 11 | 8 | 68 | 100 | 7 | 30 | 11 | 252 | 335 | 364 | 699 | 112 | 289 | 15 | 10 | 316 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 331 | 67 | 12 | 0 | 9 | 26 | 79 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 202 | 269 | 320 | 589 | 118 | 235 | 21 | 7 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 368 | 322 | 71 | 13 | 0 | 12 | 35 | 67 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 220 | 305 | 373 | 677 | 152 | 239 | 18 | 10 | 301 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 228 | 189 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 39 | 8 | 24 | 4 | 143 | 282 | 206 | 488 | 63 | 172 | 17 | 13 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | 3 teams | — | 237 | 208 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 65 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 197 | 289 | 322 | 611 | 125 | 251 | 27 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 817 | 761 | 183 | 34 | 4 | 20 | 44 | 180 | 6 | 42 | 13 | 240 | 287 | 375 | 661 | 134 | 285 | 22 | 5 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 591 | 539 | 111 | 31 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 131 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 206 | 271 | 336 | 606 | 130 | 239 | 22 | 6 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 678 | 620 | 128 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 46 | 131 | 7 | 30 | 11 | 206 | 269 | 253 | 522 | 47 | 252 | 19 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 335 | 67 | 12 | 0 | 9 | 26 | 79 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 200 | 269 | 316 | 585 | 116 | 228 | 21 | 7 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 591 | 539 | 111 | 31 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 131 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 206 | 271 | 336 | 606 | 130 | 239 | 22 | 6 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 678 | 620 | 128 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 46 | 131 | 7 | 30 | 11 | 206 | 269 | 253 | 522 | 47 | 252 | 19 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 335 | 67 | 12 | 0 | 9 | 26 | 79 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 200 | 269 | 316 | 585 | 116 | 228 | 21 | 7 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIA | 30% | 380 | 346 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 81 | 4 | 17 | 3 | 224 | 288 | 329 | 617 | 105 | 270 | 21 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -11 | +2 | +2 | +4 | +8 | 0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIA | 30% | 63 | 58 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 217 | 282 | 315 | 597 | 98 | 262 | 21 | 6 | 271 | 75 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIA | 45% | 315 | 285 | 64 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 67 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 225 | 290 | 333 | 624 | 108 | 271 | 21 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -9 | +2 | +1 | +3 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIA | 51% | 323 | 293 | 66 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 69 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 225 | 291 | 335 | 625 | 109 | 272 | 21 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -9 | +2 | +1 | +3 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIA | 55% | 324 | 293 | 66 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 70 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 225 | 290 | 334 | 624 | 109 | 272 | 22 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -9 | +1 | +1 | +3 | +7 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIA | 56% | 314 | 285 | 64 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 69 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 224 | 289 | 332 | 621 | 108 | 272 | 22 | 7 | 281 | 76 | -9 | +1 | -0 | +3 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIA | 56% | 305 | 277 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 68 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 222 | 287 | 328 | 616 | 107 | 271 | 22 | 7 | 278 | 75 | -9 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIA | 45% | 140 | 127 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 218 | 284 | 320 | 603 | 101 | 263 | 21 | 7 | 273 | 77 | -4 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIA | 51% | 165 | 150 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 35 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 218 | 284 | 321 | 605 | 102 | 263 | 21 | 7 | 274 | 77 | -4 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIA | 55% | 178 | 161 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 39 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 218 | 284 | 320 | 604 | 102 | 264 | 22 | 7 | 274 | 77 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIA | 56% | 175 | 158 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 39 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 217 | 283 | 318 | 601 | 101 | 263 | 22 | 7 | 272 | 76 | -5 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIA | 56% | 172 | 155 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 39 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 215 | 281 | 315 | 596 | 100 | 263 | 23 | 8 | 270 | 75 | -5 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 862 | 779 | 169 | 32 | 0 | 15 | 64 | 190 | 10 | 31 | 5 | 217 | 285 | 316 | 601 | 99 | 266 | 22 | 7 | 273 | 68 | -25 | +4 | +1 | +13 | +19 | 1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 587 | 127 | 24 | 0 | 11 | 48 | 143 | 8 | 23 | 4 | 216 | 285 | 313 | 598 | 97 | 265 | 22 | 7 | 273 | 68 | -19 | +3 | +1 | +10 | +14 | 0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4710 | 4274 | 922 | 172 | 14 | 85 | 328 | 1013 | 66 | 210 | 63 | 216 | 282 | 322 | 604 | 106 | 261 | 22 | 7 | 269 | 68 | -52 | +7 | +3 | +23 | +39 | 2.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 128 | 24 | 2 | 12 | 45 | 140 | 9 | 29 | 9 | 217 | 283 | 325 | 608 | 108 | 262 | 22 | 7 | 269 | 68 | -19 | +3 | +1 | +8 | +14 | 0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 336 PAwOBA .298 → .257 (−41)K% 17.6% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.56% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 6.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.19% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.012 | ×1.048 | 18.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.012 | ×1.048 | 3.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.012 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 3.75% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .298 → .257; ISO .156 → .121; BABIP .235 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 437 PAwOBA .266 → .235 (−31)K% 15.8% → 19.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.79% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.38% | ÷1.045 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 6.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.14% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.03% | ÷1.017 | ×0.920 | ×1.027 | ×1.027 | 21.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.52% | ÷0.955 | ×0.910 | ×1.027 | ×1.027 | 2.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.63% | ÷0.941 | ×0.880 | ×1.027 | ×1.027 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.95% | ÷1.103 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.71% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 88, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .266 → .235; ISO .054 → .049; BABIP .262 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 41 PAwOBA .307 → .259 (−49)K% 14.6% → 17.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.63% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.07% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 12.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.051 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 19.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.023 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 6.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.903 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 110, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .307 → .259; ISO .059 → .051; BABIP .286 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 393 PAwOBA .343 → .259 (−85)K% 15.3% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.27% | ÷0.946 | ×1.310 | — | — | 21.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.18% | ÷1.099 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 5.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.04% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 1.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.79% | ÷1.025 | ×0.870 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 14.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.29% | ÷1.070 | ×0.780 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 6.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.64% | ÷1.032 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 4.01% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 105, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 89, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .343 → .259; ISO .191 → .155; BABIP .268 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 175 PAwOBA .326 → .295 (−30)K% 18.9% → 22.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.86% | ÷1.039 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 5.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.86% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 2.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.49% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×1.018 | ×1.042 | 21.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.74% | ÷1.034 | ×0.910 | ×1.018 | ×1.042 | 10.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.909 | ×0.880 | ×1.018 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.65% | ÷1.064 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.29% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 82, K 108, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .326 → .295; ISO .123 → .110; BABIP .322 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 23 PAwOBA .168 → .141 (−27)K% 34.8% → 41.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.78% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 41.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 6.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.35% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 4.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 16.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 94, 3B 97, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .168 → .141; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .167 → .160. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ATampa Tarpons · 443 PAwOBA .357 → .289 (−69)K% 16.9% → 23.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.93% | ÷0.975 | ×1.360 | — | — | 23.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.80% | ÷1.079 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 5.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.45% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.15% | ÷0.987 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×1.015 | 21.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.46% | ÷0.972 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×1.015 | 5.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.31% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.008 | ×1.015 | 0.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.85% | ÷1.086 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 4.37% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 97, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 95, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .357 → .289; ISO .200 → .151; BABIP .306 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 120 PAwOBA .327 → .277 (−50)K% 12.5% → 16.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.005 | ×1.310 | — | — | 16.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.50% | ÷1.092 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 4.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.67% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 1.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.66% | ÷1.004 | ×0.870 | ×1.044 | ×1.027 | 21.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.53% | ÷1.060 | ×0.780 | ×1.044 | ×1.027 | 5.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.15% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.044 | ×1.027 | 2.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.006 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 101, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 101, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.044.
Result: wOBA .327 → .277; ISO .102 → .089; BABIP .330 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .