Jared Serna — OGILVIE

Jared SernaSS Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 24 R/R 5'7" / 174 lbs AAA HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION336 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP239

ISO87

MLB%30%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$7M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

100.208

POWER25

Barrel%

7011.1

Avg EV

6490.1

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

9029.1

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	19	ROK	DSL Yankees 1	—	193	151	36	9	2	3	34	27	8	24	4	238	404	384	788	146	273	14	18	365	133	+8	+3	—	—	+4	1.5
2021	19	INTL	Charros de Jalisco	—	35	31	9	5	1	1	3	7	0	0	0	290	353	613	966	323	348	20	9	401	157	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2022	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	44	39	7	2	0	0	3	15	1	1	1	179	256	231	487	51	280	34	7	225	39	-3	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2022	20	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	160	129	39	9	1	6	25	24	6	16	4	302	438	527	965	225	333	15	16	427	175	+14	+2	—	—	+3	2.0
2022	20	INTL	Charros de Jalisco	—	33	31	5	1	0	0	1	6	0	1	0	161	188	194	381	32	200	18	3	170	1	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2023	21	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	120	108	31	7	2	0	9	15	2	10	2	287	353	389	742	102	330	12	8	332	111	+2	+1	—	—	+3	0.5
2023	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	443	400	113	21	1	19	40	75	2	19	6	282	351	482	833	200	306	17	9	367	135	+18	+1	—	—	+10	3.0
2023	21	INTL	Charros de Jalisco	—	254	232	72	14	2	7	18	46	2	13	5	310	365	478	844	168	363	18	7	371	137	+11	+1	—	—	+6	1.8
2024	22	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	23	20	2	0	0	0	2	8	1	1	0	100	217	100	317		167	35	9	171	2	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2024	22	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	175	154	41	13	0	2	14	33	5	3	3	266	347	390	736	123	322	19	8	330	110	+2	-1	—	—	+4	0.5
2024	22	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	393	340	86	26	0	13	40	60	8	11	8	253	345	444	789	191	268	15	10	348	122	+10	-1	—	—	+9	1.8
2025	23	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	41	34	8	2	0	0	7	6	0	5	0	235	366	294	660	59	286	15	17	314	99	-0	+1	—	—	+1	0.2
2025	23	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	437	386	86	8	2	3	42	69	5	15	10	223	307	277	584	54	262	16	10	272	70	-16	-1	—	—	+9	-0.7
2025	23	INTL	Charros de Jalisco	—	200	179	57	11	9	5	19	25	2	10	1	318	390	564	954	246	349	12	10	414	166	+16	+2	—	—	+4	2.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 1	—	193	163	28	7	1	2	22	39	8	24	4	172	301	264	564	92	210	20	11	256	59	-9	+3	—	—	+4	-0.2
2022	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	44	40	5	2	0	0	2	22	1	1	1	125	186	175	361	50	245	50	5	164	-3	-5	-0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	160	139	30	6	1	4	15	35	6	16	4	216	319	360	678	144	255	22	9	300	89	-2	+2	—	—	+3	0.3
2023	21	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	120	112	29	6	2	0	5	20	2	10	2	259	303	348	651	89	307	17	4	285	79	-3	+1	—	—	+3	0.1
2023	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	443	413	98	20	1	14	27	109	2	19	6	237	287	392	680	155	288	25	6	296	86	-7	+1	—	—	+10	0.4
2024	22	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	23	21	2	0	0	0	1	10	1	1	0	95	174	95	269		153	43	4	135	-22	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.3
2024	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	175	159	37	11	0	1	9	39	5	3	3	233	295	321	616	88	299	22	5	283	78	-5	-1	—	—	+4	-0.1
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	393	356	70	19	0	10	24	85	8	11	8	197	263	334	597	138	220	22	6	261	63	-17	-1	—	—	+9	-1.0
2025	23	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	41	36	7	2	0	0	5	7	0	5	0	194	293	250	543	56	247	17	12	248	54	-2	+1	—	—	+1	-0.0
2025	23	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	437	401	82	8	2	2	27	85	5	15	10	204	263	249	513	45	248	19	6	232	43	-30	-1	—	—	+9	-2.2
2021	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	228	193	33	8	2	2	26	46	8	24	4	171	295	264	559	93	214	20	11	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	228	182	45	14	3	4	37	34	8	24	4	247	396	423	820	176	285	15	16	371	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	3 teams	—	237	208	41	9	1	5	20	66	7	18	5	197	289	322	611	125	261	28	8	271	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	3 teams	—	237	199	51	12	1	6	29	45	7	18	5	256	370	417	787	161	302	19	12	354	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	817	760	185	37	4	21	47	188	6	42	13	243	293	386	678	142	297	23	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A RAW	3 teams	—	817	740	216	42	5	26	67	136	6	42	13	292	355	468	823	176	328	17	8	363	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	591	535	110	30	0	12	35	133	14	15	11	206	272	329	601	123	247	23	6	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	591	514	129	39	0	15	56	101	14	15	11	251	341	414	755	163	281	17	9	336	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	678	622	126	13	3	3	45	131	7	30	11	203	264	248	512	45	251	19	7	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA RAW	3 teams	—	678	599	151	21	11	8	68	100	7	30	11	252	335	364	699	112	289	15	10	316	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	228	192	33	8	2	2	26	46	8	24	4	172	295	266	561	94	210	20	11	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	3 teams	—	237	208	41	9	1	5	20	66	7	18	5	197	289	322	611	125	253	28	8	271	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	817	758	185	37	4	21	47	188	6	42	13	244	293	387	679	142	292	23	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	591	537	110	30	0	12	35	133	14	15	11	205	272	328	600	123	241	23	6	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	678	621	126	13	3	3	45	131	7	30	11	203	264	248	512	45	248	19	7	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	817	758	185	37	4	21	47	188	6	42	13	244	293	387	679	142	292	23	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	591	537	110	30	0	12	35	133	14	15	11	205	272	328	600	123	241	23	6	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	678	621	126	13	3	3	45	131	7	30	11	203	264	248	512	45	248	19	7	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	MIA	—	336	304	59	9	0	9	22	71	4	14	4	194	258	312	570	118	220	21	7	246	53	-19	+1	+0	+4	+7	-0.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA RAW	MIA	—	336	294	65	10	0	12	32	59	4	14	4	221	306	378	684	156	235	18	10	304	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	24	AAA MLE	MIA	30%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		246	22	11	260	62	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	24	MLB CTX	MIA	30%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						239	33	0	245	62	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	24	MLB A+C	MIA	—	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0							33	0	245	53	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	24	AAA MLE	MIA	—	345	312	60	9	0	9	23	73	4	14	4	192	257	308	564	115	219	21	7	246	53	-19	+1	+0	+4	+7	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIA	44%	370	338	71	12	1	7	25	77	4	12	4	210	272	314	586	104	250	21	7	269	68	-14	+1	+0	+4	+8	-0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	51%	407	370	79	13	1	9	29	85	5	13	5	214	280	327	607	114	253	21	7	274	72	-14	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	420	382	82	14	1	9	30	88	5	13	5	215	281	327	608	113	255	21	7	277	73	-13	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	425	386	83	14	1	9	31	90	5	13	5	215	282	326	608	111	255	21	7	277	74	-13	+1	-1	+5	+9	0.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	420	381	82	14	1	9	31	90	5	12	4	215	283	328	611	113	255	21	7	275	73	-14	+1	-1	+4	+9	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	414	375	81	14	1	9	31	89	5	10	4	216	285	331	615	115	254	21	7	273	71	-14	+0	-2	+4	+9	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIA	44%	163	149	30	5	0	3	11	34	2	5	2	201	265	295	561	94	244	21	7	253	68	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	51%	206	188	38	6	0	4	14	43	2	6	2	202	265	298	563	96	246	21	7	258	72	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	220	199	43	7	1	5	16	46	3	7	2	216	284	337	621	121	248	21	7	261	73	-7	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	226	204	44	7	1	5	17	48	3	7	2	216	286	333	619	118	249	21	8	261	74	-7	+1	-0	+2	+5	0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	221	200	41	7	0	4	16	47	3	6	2	205	274	300	574	95	248	21	7	260	73	-7	+0	-1	+2	+5	-0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	234	212	44	7	0	5	17	50	3	6	2	208	276	311	587	104	247	21	7	257	71	-8	+0	-1	+3	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1273	1155	240	39	2	26	91	269	16	37	12	208	275	313	588	105	247	21	7	259	69	-43	+3	-2	+14	+28	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	122	20	1	13	46	137	8	19	6	207	273	310	583	103	246	21	7	259	69	-22	+1	-1	+7	+14	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	5016	4558	974	178	16	95	351	1085	71	202	71	214	280	322	603	109	258	22	7	270	69	-83	+4	-4	+26	+53	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	126	23	2	12	45	141	9	26	9	213	279	320	598	107	259	22	7	270	69	-22	+1	-1	+7	+14	-0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.1	1,366	28	40	216	279	326	+15	+9	0.8	0.8
/162	664	14	19	+7.1	+4.4	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jared Serna (OGILVIE)	24	45	25	50	45	205/266/303	97	246	6	11	21%	6%	62	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Colt Sedbrook 2010 · AA	25	45→44	38→30	51→50	48	214/305/291	76	273	6	14	22%	8%	75	-0.5	206/301/279	73	263	5	12	22%	8%	71	-0.8	180/292/226	46	232	2	12	20%	9%	55	-1.1
✕Matt Williams 2014 · AA	24	46→48	39→40	49→50	45	221/270/309	89	268	6	14	20%	6%	63	-1.3	219/285/290	71	280	4	14	22%	8%	65	-1.2	218/290/279	61	282	3	15	22%	9%	63	-0.8
✕Nick Allen 2023 · MLB	24	45→55	40	47→50	46	221/276/312	92	272	8	13	22%	7%	67	-1.1	238/296/328	90	284	8	16	18%	7%	78	-0.3	247/310/317	71	304	5	13	19%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Ramón Rodríguez 2023 · AAA	24	47	40	50→45	43	229/273/313	84	277	8	9	20%	5%	65	-1.2	225/288/329	104	252	11	7	15%	7%	76	-0.4	211/277/309	98	233	11	5	15%	7%	66	-0.5
✕Peeter Ramos 2006 · AA	24	49→54	35→30	52→50	45	230/278/286	55	277	3	13	18%	5%	61	-1.5	243/293/316	73	292	6	10	18%	6%	74	-0.6	248/300/319	72	296	6	9	18%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Alejandro Rivero 2013 · AAA	24	47	36→30	49→55	43	222/266/277	55	265	4	13	18%	4%	55	-2.0	231/279/274	43	272	2	16	15%	4%	59	-1.7	222/277/256	34	256	1	19	13%	6%	51	-1.0
✕Diego Madero 2016 · AAA	24	50→51	39→40	47→50	44	238/273/323	85	272	6	12	15%	4%	68	-1.0	255/293/348	93	294	7	16	15%	4%	81	-0.1	250/293/343	93	284	9	17	15%	5%	77	-0.2
✕Fausto Lopez 2007 · AAA	24	47	40→30	49→55	43	228/277/322	93	298	8	13	25%	6%	69	-0.9	220/258/296	76	273	6	16	21%	4%	56	-1.9	230/262/291	61	281	4	20	19%	2%	53	-1.1
✕Michael Guldberg 2023 · AA	24	46	39→45	50→55	45	221/285/308	87	284	6	13	24%	7%	70	-0.9	214/266/306	92	287	7	11	27%	6%	61	-1.5	183/220/262	79	246	7	10	28%	4%	30	-0.9
✕Brodie Greene 2013 · AA	25	47→49	39→40	52→50	45	227/276/313	86	270	6	16	18%	6%	66	-1.1	215/263/283	68	251	4	10	15%	6%	55	-2.0	212/260/263	52	245	3	7	14%	6%	47	-1.6
✕Jose Rosario 2016 · AAA	24	48	38→40	49→50	39	229/265/310	80	285	5	11	21%	3%	61	-1.5	224/254/306	82	291	6	9	24%	3%	56	-1.9	245/262/328	82	313	6	7	24%	1%	61	-0.7
✕Zach Gibbons 2018 · AA	24	50	40	50	48	239/288/330	91	279	6	12	17%	6%	75	-0.5	230/278/322	92	275	6	9	18%	6%	69	-0.9	233/278/321	88	274	4	6	16%	6%	67	-0.8
✕Ryan Leonards 2016 · AA	25	48	38→40	50	46	229/287/308	79	290	5	11	22%	6%	70	-0.9	215/278/298	83	277	6	8	23%	6%	65	-1.2	173/250/229	55	222	3	2	21%	6%	36	-0.9
✕Jack Reinheimer 2016 · AA	24	50→52	37→40	53→55	44	237/284/312	75	298	4	18	21%	6%	69	-0.9	229/280/300	71	296	4	16	22%	6%	65	-1.2	223/278/289	65	291	3	17	23%	6%	60	-1.3
✕Nick Meyer 2022 · AAA	25	43	38→40	47→50	44	208/270/280	72	269	6	12	24%	6%	58	-1.7	213/285/304	91	277	9	15	25%	8%	70	-0.9	198/278/278	79	257	10	18	25%	9%	58	-0.8
✕Blake Trahan 2018 · AA	24	47→51	36→30	48→50	46	218/269/281	63	266	3	13	19%	6%	57	-1.8	204/254/266	62	271	4	8	25%	6%	48	-2.5	195/245/247	52	264	3	5	26%	5%	37	-2.4
✕Devin Lohman 2014 · AA	25	44→46	41→40	48→50	45	214/273/305	91	262	9	16	22%	6%	65	-1.2	209/261/290	81	271	6	11	24%	5%	56	-1.9	200/250/269	69	266	5	9	26%	5%	46	-1.2
✕Tyler Ladendorf 2012 · AAA	24	43→49	39→40	47→50	42	209/258/293	84	270	6	9	25%	6%	55	-1.9	211/271/305	94	267	8	7	23%	6%	63	-1.3	224/284/314	90	283	6	3	22%	7%	68	-0.4
✕Errol Robinson 2019 · AA	24	46→49	40	51→55	41	222/268/311	88	298	8	17	27%	6%	63	-1.4	211/268/289	78	295	7	13	29%	7%	59	-1.7	205/278/253	49	316	3	26	33%	9%	52	-0.7
✕Jose Duarte 2010 · AAA	25	48→56	38→40	51→55	47	230/281/310	80	282	6	20	20%	7%	68	-1.0	231/293/321	90	290	6	15	21%	8%	75	-0.5	232/300/319	87	290	6	14	20%	9%	75	-0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps