Ryan Kreidler
CF Minnesota Twins| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAA/ADET | 223 | .189/.306/.311 | 5 | 7 | 35 | — | .147/.239/.243 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLBDET | 65 | .119/.200/.169 | 1 | 5 | 10 | -0.3 | |
| 2025 | 27 | AAAPIT | 401 | .238/.364/.389 | 5 | 18 | 61 | — | .189/.279/.302 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLBDET | 44 | .105/.190/.105 | 0 | 2 | -15 | -0.3 | |
| 2026 | 28 | AAAMIN | 113 | .266/.389/.500 | 5 | 3 | 87 | — | .210/.301/.360 |
| 2026 | 28 | MLBMIN | 267 | .218/.286/.379 | 8 | 4 | 86 | 0.1 | |
| 2027PROJ | 29 | MLBMIN | 272 | .209/.288/.365 | 8 | 7 | 83 | 0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ82% MLB | 30 | MLBMIN | 223 | .206/.285/.357 | 7 | 4 | 81 | -0.1 |
Tools · Recent Form · ContractCON 40 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 162 | 135 | 41 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 39 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 304 | 412 | 519 | 931 | 215 | 374 | 24 | 15 | 406 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 388 | 347 | 89 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 32 | 119 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 256 | 328 | 429 | 758 | 173 | 341 | 31 | 8 | 335 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 84 | 73 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 178 | 250 | 233 | 483 | 55 | 231 | 26 | 7 | 217 | 35 | -6 | -0 | +5 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 250 | 202 | 43 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 36 | 72 | 9 | 15 | 1 | 213 | 356 | 411 | 767 | 198 | 280 | 29 | 14 | 344 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 17 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 231 | 412 | 385 | 796 | 154 | 300 | 18 | 24 | 368 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 18 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 111 | 111 | 222 | 182 | 39 | 0 | 101 | -45 | -3 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +0 | -0.1 | |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 209 | 176 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 28 | 53 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 239 | 353 | 460 | 813 | 222 | 272 | 25 | 13 | 359 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 19 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 263 | 235 | 498 | 59 | 300 | 37 | 11 | 236 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 25 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 400 | 421 | 821 | 211 | 333 | 36 | 24 | 374 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 65 | 59 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 119 | 200 | 169 | 369 | 51 | 154 | 29 | 9 | 180 | 10 | -7 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 201 | 170 | 34 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 59 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 200 | 320 | 335 | 655 | 135 | 274 | 29 | 12 | 302 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 22 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 182 | 100 | 282 | 222 | 50 | 5 | 147 | -52 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 44 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 105 | 190 | 105 | 296 | 211 | 43 | 9 | 146 | -15 | -6 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +1 | -0.3 | |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 401 | 332 | 79 | 27 | 4 | 5 | 58 | 109 | 8 | 18 | 9 | 238 | 364 | 389 | 753 | 151 | 336 | 27 | 14 | 341 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | — | 267 | 243 | 53 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 61 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 218 | 286 | 379 | 664 | 160 | 259 | 23 | 8 | 296 | 86 | -4 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 113 | 94 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 34 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 266 | 389 | 500 | 889 | 234 | 364 | 30 | 17 | 393 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 478 | 431 | 79 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 37 | 128 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 183 | 253 | 290 | 543 | 107 | 234 | 27 | 8 | 245 | 52 | -27 | -1 | +4 | +8 | +10 | -0.6 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 162 | 143 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 47 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 273 | 350 | 427 | 777 | 154 | 360 | 29 | 10 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 388 | 355 | 74 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 24 | 142 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 208 | 268 | 338 | 606 | 130 | 298 | 37 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 84 | 73 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 178 | 250 | 233 | 483 | 55 | 231 | 26 | 7 | 220 | 35 | -6 | -0 | +5 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 250 | 211 | 38 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 86 | 9 | 15 | 1 | 180 | 300 | 332 | 631 | 152 | 250 | 34 | 11 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 17 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 214 | 353 | 357 | 710 | 143 | 268 | 24 | 18 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 18 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 111 | 111 | 222 | 182 | 39 | 0 | 102 | -45 | -3 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +0 | -0.1 | |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 209 | 184 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 64 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 201 | 290 | 370 | 659 | 168 | 240 | 31 | 10 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 19 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 211 | 222 | 433 | 56 | 260 | 47 | 5 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 25 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 320 | 381 | 701 | 190 | 278 | 52 | 16 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 65 | 59 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 119 | 200 | 169 | 369 | 51 | 154 | 29 | 9 | 182 | 10 | -7 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 201 | 178 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 69 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 157 | 250 | 264 | 514 | 107 | 224 | 34 | 8 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 22 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 136 | 50 | 186 | 198 | 68 | 5 | 92 | -52 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 44 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 105 | 190 | 105 | 296 | 211 | 43 | 9 | 147 | -15 | -6 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +1 | -0.3 | |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 401 | 354 | 67 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 136 | 8 | 18 | 9 | 189 | 279 | 302 | 581 | 113 | 287 | 34 | 9 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | Minnesota Twins | — | 267 | 243 | 53 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 61 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 218 | 286 | 379 | 664 | 160 | 259 | 23 | 8 | 296 | 86 | -4 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 113 | 100 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 41 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 210 | 301 | 360 | 661 | 150 | 320 | 36 | 12 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 550 | 498 | 113 | 20 | 0 | 16 | 40 | 188 | 6 | 15 | 6 | 227 | 292 | 363 | 656 | 137 | 323 | 34 | 7 | 287 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 550 | 482 | 130 | 23 | 0 | 22 | 56 | 158 | 6 | 15 | 6 | 270 | 353 | 454 | 807 | 185 | 351 | 29 | 10 | 356 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 351 | 299 | 54 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 112 | 10 | 17 | 2 | 181 | 288 | 308 | 595 | 127 | 254 | 32 | 10 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 351 | 288 | 59 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 46 | 97 | 10 | 17 | 2 | 205 | 334 | 365 | 699 | 160 | 267 | 28 | 13 | 315 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 271 | 241 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 25 | 92 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 183 | 268 | 320 | 587 | 137 | 246 | 34 | 9 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA RAW | 4 teams | — | 271 | 230 | 51 | 8 | 0 | 12 | 36 | 76 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 222 | 335 | 413 | 748 | 191 | 271 | 28 | 13 | 334 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 288 | 257 | 36 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 103 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 140 | 230 | 226 | 456 | 86 | 208 | 36 | 8 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 288 | 249 | 43 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 89 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 173 | 282 | 277 | 559 | 104 | 240 | 31 | 11 | 263 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 445 | 392 | 71 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 155 | 8 | 20 | 9 | 181 | 270 | 283 | 554 | 102 | 285 | 35 | 9 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 445 | 370 | 83 | 27 | 4 | 5 | 62 | 128 | 8 | 20 | 9 | 224 | 348 | 359 | 707 | 135 | 326 | 29 | 14 | 322 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 380 | 343 | 74 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 34 | 102 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 216 | 290 | 373 | 663 | 157 | 274 | 27 | 9 | 296 | 87 | -6 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 380 | 337 | 78 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 40 | 95 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 231 | 317 | 412 | 729 | 181 | 284 | 25 | 11 | 325 | 87 | -6 | -1 | -1 | +1 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 550 | 499 | 113 | 20 | 0 | 16 | 40 | 188 | 6 | 15 | 6 | 226 | 292 | 363 | 655 | 136 | 316 | 34 | 7 | 287 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 351 | 303 | 54 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 112 | 10 | 17 | 2 | 178 | 288 | 304 | 591 | 125 | 246 | 32 | 10 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 271 | 241 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 25 | 92 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 183 | 268 | 320 | 587 | 137 | 241 | 34 | 9 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 288 | 256 | 36 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 103 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 141 | 230 | 227 | 457 | 86 | 206 | 36 | 8 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 445 | 394 | 71 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 155 | 8 | 20 | 9 | 180 | 270 | 282 | 552 | 102 | 279 | 35 | 9 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 380 | 341 | 74 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 34 | 102 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 217 | 290 | 375 | 666 | 158 | 277 | 27 | 9 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 288 | 256 | 36 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 103 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 141 | 230 | 227 | 457 | 86 | 206 | 36 | 8 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 445 | 394 | 71 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 155 | 8 | 20 | 9 | 180 | 270 | 282 | 552 | 102 | 279 | 35 | 9 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 380 | 341 | 74 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 34 | 102 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 217 | 290 | 375 | 666 | 158 | 277 | 27 | 9 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIN | 100% | 380 | 340 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 12 | 34 | 102 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 209 | 288 | 364 | 652 | 155 | 259 | 27 | 9 | 292 | 83 | -7 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +8 | 0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIN | 100% | 272 | 243 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 73 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 209 | 288 | 365 | 653 | 156 | 259 | 27 | 9 | 292 | 83 | -5 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +6 | 0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIN | 82% | 272 | 244 | 50 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 74 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 206 | 284 | 357 | 641 | 151 | 257 | 27 | 9 | 287 | 81 | -6 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIN | 82% | 223 | 199 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 61 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 206 | 285 | 357 | 642 | 151 | 257 | 27 | 9 | 288 | 81 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 701 | 630 | 120 | 18 | 4 | 17 | 57 | 189 | 5 | 15 | 9 | 190 | 263 | 313 | 576 | 122 | 241 | 27 | 8 | 259 | 69 | -32 | -1 | +2 | +9 | +15 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 112 | 17 | 4 | 16 | 53 | 175 | 5 | 14 | 8 | 192 | 265 | 317 | 582 | 125 | 242 | 27 | 8 | 259 | 69 | -30 | -1 | +2 | +8 | +14 | -0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2829 | 2517 | 493 | 98 | 14 | 68 | 247 | 899 | 39 | 95 | 34 | 196 | 278 | 327 | 605 | 131 | 271 | 32 | 9 | 270 | 69 | -39 | +0 | +1 | +10 | +22 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 578 | 114 | 23 | 3 | 16 | 57 | 207 | 9 | 22 | 8 | 197 | 280 | 330 | 610 | 133 | 273 | 32 | 9 | 270 | 69 | -25 | +0 | +1 | +6 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 113 PAwOBA .383 → .297 (−86)K% 30.1% → 36.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.09% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 11.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.031 | ×0.982 | 20.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.031 | ×0.982 | 9.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.031 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 5.73% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .383 → .297; ISO .234 → .170; BABIP .364 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 401 PAwOBA .335 → .259 (−75)K% 27.2% → 33.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.18% | ÷0.965 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.46% | ÷1.112 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 8.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.28% | ÷1.008 | ×0.930 | ×0.977 | ×0.992 | 17.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.11% | ÷0.995 | ×0.830 | ×0.977 | ×0.992 | 9.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.79% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.977 | ×0.992 | 1.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.24% | ÷0.915 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.70% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 93, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .335 → .259; ISO .151 → .119; BABIP .336 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 201 PAwOBA .295 → .235 (−60)K% 29.4% → 34.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.35% | ÷1.022 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.44% | ÷1.016 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 8.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.49% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 2.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.72% | ÷1.117 | ×0.930 | ×0.988 | ×1.003 | 17.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.60% | ÷1.049 | ×0.830 | ×0.988 | ×1.003 | 2.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.80% | ÷1.070 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | ×1.003 | 1.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.50% | ÷0.792 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 3.99% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 58, 1B 123, 2B 110, 3B 114, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .295 → .235; ISO .135 → .117; BABIP .274 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 22 PAwOBA .144 → .092 (−52)K% 50.0% → 66.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 50.00% | ÷1.028 | ×1.360 | — | — | 66.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.55% | ÷1.061 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.950 | 2.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.55% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.950 | 3.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷0.980 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.950 | 19.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.351 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.950 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.106 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.950 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.099 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.950 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 96, 2B 170, 3B 121, K 106, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.0 → −5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .144 → .092; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .222 → .198. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 209 PAwOBA .353 → .285 (−68)K% 25.4% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.36% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.40% | ÷1.006 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 9.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.44% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.33% | ÷0.965 | ×0.930 | ×0.965 | ×1.018 | 19.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.88% | ÷1.156 | ×0.830 | ×0.965 | ×1.018 | 3.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.965 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.94% | ÷0.901 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 7.07% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 93, 2B 131, 3B 130, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .353 → .285; ISO .222 → .172; BABIP .272 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 25 PAwOBA .366 → .236 (−130)K% 36.0% → 50.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.00% | ÷0.975 | ×1.360 | — | — | 50.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 24.00% | ÷1.089 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.960 | 14.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.957 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.960 | 18.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.056 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.960 | 7.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.020 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.216 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.960 | 6.32% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 91, 2B 111, 3B 104, K 95, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .366 → .236; ISO .211 → .123; BABIP .333 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 19 PAwOBA .231 → .169 (−61)K% 36.8% → 46.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.84% | ÷1.007 | ×1.270 | — | — | 46.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷0.993 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 7.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 18.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.968 | 7.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.882 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .231 → .169; ISO .059 → .041; BABIP .300 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 250 PAwOBA .340 → .278 (−62)K% 28.8% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.80% | ÷1.008 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.40% | ÷0.964 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 10.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.60% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 3.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.15% | ÷1.015 | ×0.930 | ×1.004 | ×1.033 | 15.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.23% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | ×1.004 | ×1.033 | 7.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.004 | ×1.033 | 1.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.15% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.34% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .340 → .278; ISO .198 → .150; BABIP .280 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).