Ryan Kreidler — OGILVIE

Ryan KreidlerCF Minnesota Twins

Age 28 R/R 6'3" / 208 lbs MLB Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION255 act + 170 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†86

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .292 / .364

PA170

HR5

SB5

K%29

BB%9

BABIP278

ISO152

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

906.6%

xwOBA

160.269

POWER45

Barrel%

386.6

Avg EV

1386.3

Bat Spd

8474.9

EYE60

Chase%

9012.1%

SPEED55

Sprint

6027.9

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$0.2M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2027	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.2M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	AA	2 teams	—	550	498	110	20	0	17	40	193	6	15	6	221	287	363	650	143	316	35	7	287	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	2 teams	—	550	482	130	23	0	22	56	158	6	15	6	270	353	454	807	185	351	29	10	356	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	3 teams	—	351	299	52	13	1	7	35	111	10	17	2	174	282	294	576	120	242	32	10	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	3 teams	—	351	288	59	15	2	9	46	97	10	17	2	205	334	365	699	160	267	28	13	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	4 teams	—	271	242	46	5	0	12	24	94	3	12	4	190	271	360	631	169	246	35	9	278	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	4 teams	—	271	230	51	8	0	12	36	76	3	12	4	222	335	413	748	191	271	28	13	334	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	3 teams	—	288	258	38	3	2	8	23	102	6	12	3	147	233	267	501	120	203	35	8	225	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	3 teams	—	288	249	43	4	2	6	32	89	6	12	3	173	282	277	559	104	240	31	11	263	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	2 teams	—	445	395	72	22	3	5	37	160	8	20	9	182	266	291	557	109	289	36	8	247	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	2 teams	—	445	370	83	27	4	5	62	128	8	20	9	224	348	359	707	135	326	29	14	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	MLB	MIN	—	255	229	55	10	2	9	25	69	1	3	6	240	318	419	737	179	305	27	10	324	106	+2	-2	-1	+1	+7	0.8
YTD	28	MLB	MIN	—	255	223	58	11	2	10	31	62	1	3	6	260	353	462	815	202	318	24	12	362	135	+10	-2	-1	+1	+7	1.6
ROS	28	MLB	MIN	100%	170	151	32	6	1	5	15	50	2	5	2	212	292	364	656	152	276	29	9	297	86	-3	+0	-0	+1	+5	0.3
ROS	28	MLB	MIN	100%	170	151	32	6	1	5	15	50	2	5	2	212	292	364	656	152	276	29	9	290	80	-4	+0	-0	+1	+5	0.2
FULL	28	MLB	MIN	—	425	380	87	16	3	14	40	119	3	8	8	229	307	397	705	168	294	28	9	311	96	-2	-2	-1	+2	+12	0.9
TOT	28	MLB	MIN	—	425	380	87	16	3	14	40	119	3	8	8	229	307	397	705	168	294	28	9	314	98	-1	-2	-1	+2	+12	1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	MIN	65%	380	338	72	14	2	12	35	112	4	9	5	213	294	373	667	160	275	29	9	296	85	-7	-0	-2	+1	+11	0.3
2028	30	MLB	MIN	65%	380	338	70	13	2	11	35	113	4	8	4	207	289	355	644	148	274	30	9	293	83	-7	+0	-3	+1	+11	0.2
2027	29	MLB	MIN	65%	247	219	47	9	1	8	23	73	3	6	3	215	298	374	672	160	275	30	9	289	79	-6	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.1
2028	30	MLB	MIN	65%	247	219	46	9	1	8	23	73	3	5	3	210	294	370	664	160	274	30	9	286	77	-6	-0	-2	+1	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	875	777	151	25	3	23	77	263	9	23	12	194	275	323	598	129	258	30	9	262	59	-41	-0	+1	+9	+25	-0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	112	19	2	17	57	195	7	17	9	194	275	322	597	128	257	30	9	262	59	-30	-0	+1	+7	+18	-0.4
Career	—			—	2835	2519	492	96	11	77	244	935	43	98	35	195	278	334	611	139	272	33	9	274	67	-104	+6	-1	+12	+80	-0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	114	22	3	18	56	214	10	22	8	197	280	339	619	142	274	33	9	274	67	-24	+1	-0	+3	+18	-0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	162	135	41	8	0	7	24	39	1	5	2	304	412	519	931	215	374	24	15	406	169	+13	+0	—	—	+5	1.8
2021	23	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	388	347	89	15	0	15	32	119	5	10	4	256	328	429	758	173	341	31	8	335	114	+6	+0	—	—	+11	1.8
2022	24	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	84	73	13	1	0	1	6	22	1	0	1	178	250	233	483	55	231	26	7	217	24	-7	-0	+5	+1	+2	0.1
2022	24	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	250	202	43	12	2	8	36	72	9	15	1	213	356	411	767	198	280	29	14	344	121	+6	+3	—	—	+7	1.6
2022	24	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	17	13	3	2	0	0	4	3	0	2	0	231	412	385	796	154	300	18	24	368	140	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.2
2023	25	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	18	18	2	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	111	111	111	222		182	39	0	101	-65	-3	+0	+1	+1	+1	-0.1
2023	25	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	209	176	42	6	0	11	28	53	3	11	4	239	353	460	813	222	272	25	13	359	133	+8	+1	—	—	+6	1.5
2023	25	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	19	17	3	1	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	176	263	235	498	59	300	37	11	236	39	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2023	25	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	25	19	4	1	0	1	6	9	0	1	0	211	400	421	821	211	333	36	24	374	145	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	65	59	7	0	0	1	6	19	0	5	3	119	200	169	369	51	154	29	9	180	-4	-8	-0	-1	+3	+2	-0.3
2024	26	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	201	170	34	4	2	5	25	59	5	7	0	200	320	335	655	135	274	29	12	302	89	-2	+1	—	—	+6	0.5
2024	26	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	22	20	2	0	0	0	1	11	1	0	0	100	182	100	282		222	50	5	147	-29	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	27	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	44	38	4	0	0	0	4	19	0	2	0	105	190	105	296		211	43	9	146	-30	-6	+0	-0	+2	+1	-0.4
2025	27	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	401	332	79	27	4	5	58	109	8	18	9	238	364	389	753	151	336	27	14	341	119	+9	+0	—	—	+11	2.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	211	188	26	1	0	2	16	67	1	7	4	138	210	176	385	37	198	32	8	181	-3	-25	-0	+5	+7	+6	-0.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,135	32	29	204	280	348	+4	+4	0.2	0.2
	/162	664	19	17	204	280	348	+2.4	+2.5	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ryan Kreidler (OGILVIE)	28	40	45	55	60	229/307/397	168	294	14	8	28%	9%	98	+1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rylan Bannon 2023 · MLB	27	37→42	49→50	52→50	48	196/278/340	144	250	18	12	29%	9%	72	-0.2	207/297/365	158	271	19	13	29%	11%	87	+0.8	195/295/355	161	251	20	12	30%	12%	82	+0.4
✕Chip Ambres 2008 · MLB	28	42→49	48→50	48→50	49	217/290/354	137	271	16	10	26%	9%	81	+0.4	219/282/362	143	266	16	7	23%	8%	79	+0.3	214/277/357	143	255	16	6	22%	7%	73	-0.1
✕JaCoby Jones 2020 · MLB	28	46	50	51→50	42	228/293/393	165	308	16	14	30%	7%	92	+1.2	219/280/368	149	328	16	9	36%	6%	79	+0.3	192/246/312	120	316	14	5	42%	6%	48	-0.7
✕Jimmy Herron 2023 · AAA	27	42→45	48→45	53→55	48	215/291/358	143	260	16	16	24%	8%	82	+0.5	217/288/337	120	273	13	24	24%	8%	76	+0.0	211/282/316	105	266	12	28	24%	8%	65	-0.5
✕Scott Kingery 2022 · MLB	28	41→51	48→55	53→55	42	207/270/353	146	286	14	12	32%	7%	72	-0.2	199/262/324	125	297	13	22	35%	8%	60	-1.0	198/239/341	143	265	19	17	33%	5%	52	-0.8
✕Tim Lopes 2022 · MLB	28	44→54	47→45	52→55	44	223/282/361	138	282	14	17	26%	7%	79	+0.3	219/286/337	118	300	12	24	29%	8%	74	-0.1	218/291/320	101	306	10	31	30%	9%	68	-0.3
✕Zack Short 2023 · MLB	28	37→38	46→50	46→45	51	190/285/315	126	261	13	9	31%	11%	69	-0.4	190/284/317	127	263	14	10	31%	11%	69	-0.4	173/272/299	126	234	15	8	31%	11%	58	-0.7
✕Chris Owings 2020 · MLB	28	43→53	47→50	48→55	41	219/272/353	134	292	14	16	30%	6%	72	-0.2	214/278/359	145	296	16	14	31%	8%	76	+0.1	184/261/307	123	264	15	11	35%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Nick Dini 2021 · MLB	28	41	51→50	49→50	42	220/270/377	157	256	20	12	24%	5%	79	+0.3	219/286/373	154	263	20	9	24%	7%	84	+0.6	177/272/313	136	213	19	8	27%	9%	61	-0.4
✕Hoy Park 2023 · MLB	27	41→49	47→45	53→55	48	209/284/337	128	275	15	16	29%	9%	73	-0.1	224/308/335	111	306	11	17	28%	10%	82	+0.5	227/321/326	100	311	9	19	27%	11%	83	+0.4
✕Brandon Larson 2005 · MLB	29	42	47→50	46→45	52	212/300/344	133	268	15	9	26%	10%	82	+0.5	229/286/389	160	293	20	6	28%	6%	88	+0.9	222/268/381	159	280	22	4	29%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Pedro Severino 2021 · MLB	28	46→48	49→50	48→45	49	233/301/374	141	274	17	6	22%	8%	90	+1.0	239/299/374	135	304	15	6	25%	8%	89	+1.0	230/288/355	125	295	14	6	26%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Drew Ellis 2023 · MLB	27	39→37	52→55	46→40	48	203/292/382	179	269	18	6	31%	10%	89	+1.0	195/284/360	165	248	20	6	29%	10%	81	+0.4	169/268/327	158	201	23	3	29%	11%	62	-0.4
✕Kevin Padlo 2023 · MLB	27	37→40	50→55	52→50	39	199/251/350	152	268	19	13	33%	6%	63	-0.8	192/271/329	137	269	15	13	32%	9%	66	-0.6	170/265/300	130	236	14	13	33%	11%	56	-0.8
✕Taylor Motter 2018 · MLB	28	42→50	48→55	53→55	47	218/273/356	139	247	16	22	20%	7%	73	-0.1	187/252/325	138	230	17	13	26%	8%	57	-1.2	214/291/395	181	261	23	5	27%	9%	90	+0.6
✕Clint Frazier 2023 · MLB	28	40→45	45→55	52→50	46	197/289/316	119	297	13	10	35%	10%	72	-0.2	205/287/329	124	302	13	12	34%	9%	72	-0.2	189/280/308	119	278	12	13	33%	10%	63	-0.6
✕Eli White 2022 · MLB	28	43→49	47→50	48→60	44	213/287/345	132	291	15	13	31%	8%	77	+0.1	227/302/365	138	317	17	28	31%	9%	88	+0.9	238/302/384	146	318	18	31	30%	7%	89	+0.5
✕Christian Lopes 2022 · AAA	29	43→50	49→45	48→50	46	218/300/366	148	293	16	11	30%	8%	88	+0.9	213/285/328	115	309	11	11	32%	8%	72	-0.2	186/263/260	74	284	4	9	33%	8%	43	-0.8
✕Weston Wilson 2023 · AAA	28	41→43	50→55	51→55	40	215/269/364	149	295	19	17	33%	7%	74	-0.1	218/288/394	176	284	24	23	31%	9%	90	+1.0	212/291/397	185	265	26	25	30%	9%	90	+0.7
✕Jayson Nix 2011 · MLB	28	43→49	54→55	46→55	46	230/296/403	173	266	22	10	23%	7%	96	+1.5	216/281/350	134	275	14	13	26%	7%	76	+0.0	207/276/316	109	275	10	18	27%	7%	61	-0.5