Erick Brito
SS Reading Fightin Phils| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AA/A+PHI | 437 | .243/.320/.326 | 2 | 21 | 47 | — | .210/.267/.280 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA/AAPHI | 280 | .247/.324/.316 | 1 | 12 | 60 | — | .231/.287/.290 |
| 2026 | 24 | AA/ROKPHI | 120 | .290/.383/.400 | 1 | 11 | 91 | — | .280/.348/.376 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBPHI | 2 | .200/.261/.265 | 0 | 0 | 50 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 26 | MLBPHI | 57 | .204/.267/.283 | 1 | 2 | 56 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | — | 72 | 52 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 269 | 457 | 327 | 784 | 58 | 318 | 12 | 21 | 368 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | — | 202 | 153 | 50 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 28 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 327 | 477 | 366 | 843 | 39 | 391 | 14 | 20 | 388 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 327 | 289 | 66 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 56 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 228 | 301 | 301 | 602 | 73 | 280 | 17 | 8 | 271 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 233 | 197 | 41 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 29 | 9 | 15 | 5 | 208 | 313 | 259 | 572 | 51 | 241 | 12 | 9 | 266 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 164 | 144 | 40 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 27 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 278 | 354 | 361 | 715 | 83 | 325 | 16 | 9 | 321 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 161 | 147 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 211 | 266 | 272 | 538 | 61 | 252 | 16 | 4 | 244 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 276 | 240 | 63 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 39 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 263 | 352 | 358 | 710 | 96 | 307 | 14 | 11 | 322 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 168 | 144 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 36 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 250 | 341 | 312 | 654 | 62 | 333 | 21 | 10 | 298 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 112 | 103 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 243 | 297 | 320 | 618 | 78 | 320 | 24 | 6 | 280 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 104 | 86 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 302 | 394 | 407 | 801 | 105 | 379 | 20 | 12 | 347 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | ROK | FCL Phillies | — | 16 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 312 | 357 | 670 | 143 | 250 | 12 | 12 | 301 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies White | — | 72 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 196 | 357 | 232 | 589 | 36 | 216 | 15 | 15 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies White | — | 202 | 167 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 36 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 222 | 340 | 251 | 592 | 30 | 263 | 18 | 13 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 327 | 297 | 63 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 76 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 212 | 266 | 279 | 546 | 67 | 267 | 23 | 6 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 233 | 205 | 38 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 38 | 9 | 15 | 5 | 185 | 264 | 229 | 494 | 44 | 210 | 16 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 164 | 148 | 38 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 36 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 257 | 317 | 338 | 655 | 81 | 309 | 22 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 161 | 149 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 201 | 247 | 255 | 502 | 54 | 243 | 19 | 3 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 276 | 251 | 54 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 50 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 215 | 278 | 295 | 573 | 80 | 254 | 18 | 7 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 168 | 150 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 43 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 233 | 299 | 287 | 585 | 53 | 324 | 26 | 7 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 112 | 105 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 229 | 270 | 295 | 566 | 67 | 319 | 29 | 4 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 104 | 89 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 292 | 364 | 382 | 746 | 90 | 358 | 25 | 9 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 16 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 250 | 333 | 583 | 133 | 188 | 19 | 6 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies White | — | 72 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 196 | 357 | 232 | 589 | 36 | 239 | 15 | 15 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Phillies White | — | 72 | 52 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 269 | 457 | 327 | 784 | 58 | 318 | 12 | 21 | 368 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies White | — | 202 | 167 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 36 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 222 | 340 | 251 | 592 | 30 | 276 | 18 | 13 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Phillies White | — | 202 | 153 | 50 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 28 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 327 | 477 | 366 | 843 | 39 | 391 | 14 | 20 | 388 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 327 | 297 | 63 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 76 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 212 | 266 | 279 | 546 | 67 | 282 | 23 | 6 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A RAW | Clearwater Threshers | — | 327 | 289 | 66 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 56 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 228 | 301 | 301 | 602 | 73 | 280 | 17 | 8 | 271 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 397 | 353 | 74 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 74 | 11 | 29 | 8 | 210 | 281 | 261 | 542 | 51 | 256 | 19 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 397 | 341 | 81 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 36 | 56 | 11 | 29 | 8 | 238 | 330 | 302 | 632 | 65 | 275 | 14 | 9 | 289 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 437 | 400 | 83 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 81 | 7 | 21 | 8 | 207 | 265 | 278 | 542 | 70 | 255 | 19 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 437 | 387 | 94 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 37 | 64 | 7 | 21 | 8 | 243 | 320 | 326 | 646 | 83 | 286 | 15 | 8 | 293 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 280 | 254 | 59 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 76 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 232 | 291 | 291 | 582 | 59 | 328 | 27 | 6 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 280 | 247 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 63 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 247 | 324 | 316 | 639 | 69 | 328 | 22 | 9 | 290 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 120 | 104 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 269 | 339 | 365 | 705 | 96 | 351 | 23 | 8 | 302 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 120 | 100 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 290 | 383 | 400 | 783 | 110 | 359 | 19 | 12 | 341 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies White | — | 72 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 190 | 357 | 224 | 581 | 34 | 216 | 15 | 15 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies White | — | 202 | 170 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 36 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 218 | 340 | 247 | 587 | 29 | 263 | 18 | 13 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 327 | 302 | 63 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 76 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 209 | 266 | 275 | 541 | 66 | 267 | 23 | 6 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 397 | 359 | 74 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 74 | 11 | 29 | 8 | 206 | 281 | 256 | 537 | 50 | 251 | 19 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 437 | 403 | 83 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 81 | 7 | 21 | 8 | 206 | 265 | 275 | 540 | 69 | 250 | 19 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 280 | 257 | 59 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 76 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 230 | 291 | 288 | 579 | 58 | 322 | 27 | 6 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 120 | 108 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 259 | 339 | 352 | 691 | 93 | 335 | 23 | 8 | 302 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 437 | 403 | 83 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 81 | 7 | 21 | 8 | 206 | 265 | 275 | 540 | 69 | 250 | 19 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 280 | 257 | 59 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 76 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 230 | 291 | 288 | 579 | 58 | 322 | 27 | 6 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 120 | 108 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 259 | 339 | 352 | 691 | 93 | 335 | 23 | 8 | 302 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | PHI | 2% | 200 | 183 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 46 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 199 | 261 | 265 | 526 | 65 | 258 | 23 | 6 | 242 | 50 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | PHI | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 261 | 265 | 526 | 65 | 258 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 50 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | PHI | 31% | 183 | 167 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 42 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 204 | 266 | 282 | 548 | 78 | 260 | 23 | 7 | 250 | 56 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | PHI | 31% | 57 | 52 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 204 | 267 | 283 | 550 | 79 | 260 | 23 | 7 | 251 | 56 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 57 | 52 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 212 | 281 | 308 | 588 | 96 | 263 | 23 | 7 | 251 | 55 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 593 | 125 | 23 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 148 | 11 | 23 | 11 | 211 | 280 | 305 | 585 | 94 | 263 | 23 | 7 | 251 | 55 | -34 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2125 | 1896 | 410 | 64 | 13 | 10 | 150 | 449 | 36 | 120 | 41 | 216 | 286 | 280 | 566 | 63 | 276 | 21 | 7 | 250 | 55 | -16 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 580 | 126 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 46 | 137 | 11 | 37 | 13 | 217 | 287 | 281 | 568 | 64 | 277 | 21 | 7 | 250 | 55 | -36 | +2 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAReading Fightin Phils · 104 PAwOBA .345 → .317 (−28)K% 20.2% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.19% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.96% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.992 | ×1.012 | 28.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.992 | ×1.012 | 7.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.21% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .345 → .317; ISO .105 → .093; BABIP .379 → .358. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Phillies · 16 PAwOBA .294 → .204 (−90)K% 12.5% → 18.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 18.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 7.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 13.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 5.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .294 → .204; ISO .143 → .098; BABIP .250 → .188. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 168 PAwOBA .291 → .265 (−25)K% 21.4% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.43% | ÷0.996 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.12% | ÷1.075 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 6.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.79% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.93% | ÷0.986 | ×0.930 | ×1.005 | ×1.050 | 25.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.48% | ÷1.018 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×1.050 | 5.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.005 | ×1.050 | 1.05% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.947 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 99, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .291 → .265; ISO .062 → .059; BABIP .333 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAReading Fightin Phils · 112 PAwOBA .272 → .247 (−25)K% 24.1% → 28.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.11% | ÷1.016 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷0.982 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.89% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.968 | ×0.970 | ×1.002 | ×1.027 | 25.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.58% | ÷1.004 | ×0.860 | ×1.002 | ×1.027 | 5.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.959 | ×0.950 | ×1.002 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.036 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.02% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 94, 2B 101, 3B 92, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .272 → .247; ISO .078 → .063; BABIP .320 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 276 PAwOBA .314 → .250 (−65)K% 14.1% → 18.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.13% | ÷1.023 | ×1.310 | — | — | 18.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.87% | ÷0.972 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 6.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.09% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.39% | ÷1.035 | ×0.870 | ×0.991 | ×1.012 | 18.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.991 | ×1.012 | 5.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.50% | ÷0.946 | ×0.850 | ×0.991 | ×1.012 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.00% | ÷0.926 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.96% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 107, 2B 100, 3B 89, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .314 → .250; ISO .096 → .082; BABIP .307 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAReading Fightin Phils · 161 PAwOBA .239 → .219 (−20)K% 15.5% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.53% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.35% | ÷1.013 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 3.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.48% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 2.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.85% | ÷0.997 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×1.042 | 18.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.74% | ÷1.022 | ×0.860 | ×0.983 | ×1.042 | 4.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.82% | ÷0.983 | ×0.950 | ×0.983 | ×1.042 | 0.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.137 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 99, 2B 104, 3B 97, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .239 → .219; ISO .061 → .054; BABIP .252 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 233 PAwOBA .262 → .216 (−47)K% 12.4% → 16.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.45% | ÷0.993 | ×1.310 | — | — | 16.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.01% | ÷0.973 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 5.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.86% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 3.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.64% | ÷1.006 | ×0.870 | ×1.004 | ×1.027 | 17.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.034 | ×0.780 | ×1.004 | ×1.027 | 2.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.19% | ÷1.071 | ×0.850 | ×1.004 | ×1.027 | 0.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.858 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 101, 2B 107, 3B 114, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .262 → .216; ISO .051 → .042; BABIP .241 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AClearwater Threshers · 164 PAwOBA .317 → .279 (−38)K% 16.5% → 21.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.46% | ÷1.020 | ×1.360 | — | — | 21.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.15% | ÷0.972 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.22% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.06% | ÷0.965 | ×0.920 | ×0.998 | ×1.015 | 28.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.71% | ÷1.002 | ×0.830 | ×0.998 | ×1.015 | 1.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.71% | ÷1.056 | ×0.910 | ×0.998 | ×1.015 | 1.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.39% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 93, 2B 100, 3B 111, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .317 → .279; ISO .083 → .069; BABIP .325 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).