Evan Mendoza
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 25 | AAASTL | 445 | .242/.310/.290 | 1 | 15 | 46 | — | .221/.269/.262 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAASTL | 421 | .247/.350/.325 | 4 | 17 | 53 | — | .206/.278/.264 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA/AASD | 115 | .217/.272/.283 | 2 | 5 | 36 | — | .202/.237/.266 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21 | A | Peoria Chiefs | — | 77 | 74 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 270 | 289 | 419 | 708 | 149 | 322 | 19 | 3 | 307 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 402 | 366 | 93 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 77 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 254 | 316 | 339 | 655 | 85 | 309 | 19 | 7 | 296 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 162 | 149 | 52 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 349 | 394 | 456 | 850 | 107 | 412 | 17 | 6 | 376 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 19 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 312 | 421 | 375 | 796 | 62 | 357 | 11 | 16 | 368 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 223 | 206 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 44 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 248 | 294 | 311 | 605 | 63 | 307 | 20 | 6 | 273 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 24 | INTL | Colombia | — | 21 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 333 | 263 | 596 | 278 | 5 | 10 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 445 | 396 | 96 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 105 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 242 | 310 | 290 | 601 | 48 | 320 | 24 | 8 | 273 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 421 | 360 | 89 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 56 | 56 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 247 | 350 | 325 | 675 | 78 | 281 | 13 | 13 | 311 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 72 | 65 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 231 | 296 | 277 | 573 | 46 | 250 | 12 | 8 | 263 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 43 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 195 | 233 | 293 | 525 | 98 | 250 | 28 | 5 | 237 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 77 | 75 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 240 | 250 | 373 | 623 | 133 | 292 | 25 | 1 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 402 | 375 | 85 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 94 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 227 | 273 | 291 | 564 | 64 | 288 | 23 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 162 | 152 | 47 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 309 | 344 | 414 | 758 | 105 | 390 | 23 | 4 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 19 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 294 | 368 | 353 | 721 | 59 | 333 | 16 | 11 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 223 | 211 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 54 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 213 | 249 | 265 | 514 | 52 | 275 | 24 | 4 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 445 | 408 | 90 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 132 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 221 | 269 | 262 | 531 | 42 | 304 | 30 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 421 | 379 | 78 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 37 | 69 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 206 | 278 | 264 | 542 | 58 | 240 | 16 | 9 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 72 | 67 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 224 | 268 | 269 | 536 | 45 | 254 | 15 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 43 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 167 | 186 | 262 | 448 | 95 | 221 | 35 | 2 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 77 | 75 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 240 | 250 | 373 | 623 | 133 | 304 | 25 | 1 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A RAW | Peoria Chiefs | — | 77 | 74 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 270 | 289 | 419 | 708 | 149 | 322 | 19 | 3 | 307 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 564 | 527 | 132 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 131 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 250 | 293 | 326 | 620 | 76 | 322 | 23 | 5 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 564 | 515 | 145 | 19 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 104 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 282 | 338 | 373 | 711 | 91 | 339 | 18 | 7 | 319 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 242 | 227 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 57 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 220 | 263 | 273 | 536 | 53 | 287 | 24 | 5 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 242 | 222 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 46 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 252 | 304 | 315 | 619 | 63 | 311 | 19 | 7 | 280 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 24 | INTL MLE | Colombia | — | 21 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 333 | 263 | 596 | 278 | 5 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2020 | 24 | INTL RAW | Colombia | — | 21 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 333 | 263 | 596 | 278 | 5 | 10 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 445 | 408 | 90 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 132 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 221 | 269 | 262 | 531 | 42 | 316 | 30 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA RAW | Memphis Redbirds | — | 445 | 396 | 96 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 105 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 242 | 310 | 290 | 601 | 48 | 320 | 24 | 8 | 273 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 421 | 379 | 78 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 37 | 69 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 206 | 278 | 264 | 542 | 58 | 242 | 16 | 9 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA RAW | Memphis Redbirds | — | 421 | 360 | 89 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 56 | 56 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 247 | 350 | 325 | 675 | 78 | 281 | 13 | 13 | 311 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 115 | 108 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 213 | 254 | 278 | 532 | 65 | 259 | 23 | 5 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 115 | 106 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 217 | 272 | 283 | 555 | 66 | 250 | 18 | 7 | 253 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 77 | 76 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 237 | 250 | 368 | 618 | 132 | 292 | 25 | 1 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 564 | 527 | 132 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 131 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 250 | 293 | 326 | 620 | 76 | 317 | 23 | 5 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 242 | 227 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 57 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 220 | 263 | 273 | 536 | 53 | 280 | 24 | 5 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 445 | 415 | 90 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 132 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 217 | 269 | 258 | 527 | 41 | 304 | 30 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 421 | 380 | 78 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 37 | 69 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 205 | 278 | 263 | 541 | 58 | 240 | 16 | 9 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 115 | 108 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 213 | 254 | 278 | 532 | 65 | 242 | 23 | 5 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1885 | 1743 | 396 | 56 | 5 | 14 | 110 | 435 | 9 | 46 | 12 | 227 | 277 | 289 | 566 | 62 | 292 | 23 | 6 | 246 | 53 | -106 | +4 | +0 | +7 | +41 | -5.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 601 | 137 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 38 | 150 | 3 | 16 | 4 | 228 | 277 | 291 | 568 | 63 | 293 | 23 | 6 | 246 | 53 | -36 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 72 PAwOBA .260 → .241 (−19)K% 12.5% → 15.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.958 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 25.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.79% | ÷1.052 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.19% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .260 → .241; ISO .046 → .031; BABIP .250 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AASan Antonio Missions · 43 PAwOBA .230 → .187 (−43)K% 27.9% → 34.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.91% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.65% | ÷0.927 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 3.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.69% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 18.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.116 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 2.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.45% | ÷0.820 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 3.29% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 97, 2B 123, 3B 102, K 97, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .230 → .187; ISO .098 → .081; BABIP .250 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 421 PAwOBA .306 → .247 (−59)K% 13.3% → 16.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.30% | ÷0.976 | ×1.200 | — | — | 16.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.30% | ÷1.053 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 8.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.24% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.70% | ÷1.051 | ×0.930 | ×0.968 | ×1.018 | 19.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.019 | ×0.830 | ×0.968 | ×1.018 | 4.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.968 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.048 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.89% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .306 → .247; ISO .078 → .060; BABIP .281 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 445 PAwOBA .269 → .236 (−33)K% 23.6% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.60% | ÷0.955 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.87% | ÷1.056 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.49% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | ×1.026 | ×1.033 | 26.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.81% | ÷1.029 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | ×1.033 | 4.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.34% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.026 | ×1.033 | 0.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.34% | ÷0.949 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.26% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 103, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 91, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .269 → .236; ISO .048 → .040; BABIP .320 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AASpringfield Cardinals · 223 PAwOBA .268 → .226 (−42)K% 19.7% → 24.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.73% | ÷0.985 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.28% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.31% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×0.953 | ×1.027 | 23.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.94% | ÷1.070 | ×0.840 | ×0.953 | ×1.027 | 3.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.62% | ÷1.108 | ×0.940 | ×0.953 | ×1.027 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.62% | ÷1.108 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.46% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 95, 2B 114, 3B 122, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .268 → .226; ISO .063 → .048; BABIP .307 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 19 PAwOBA .360 → .316 (−44)K% 10.5% → 13.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.53% | ÷0.986 | ×1.290 | — | — | 13.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.79% | ÷1.035 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.050 | 11.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.014 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.050 | 26.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.917 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.050 | 6.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.982 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 103, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .360 → .316; ISO .062 → .059; BABIP .357 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AASpringfield Cardinals · 402 PAwOBA .288 → .250 (−39)K% 19.2% → 23.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.15% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.21% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 5.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.75% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.61% | ÷1.014 | ×0.920 | ×0.994 | ×1.042 | 24.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.15% | ÷0.973 | ×0.840 | ×0.994 | ×1.042 | 3.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.69% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.994 | ×1.042 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.73% | ÷1.215 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.19% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 103, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 101, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .288 → .250; ISO .085 → .068; BABIP .309 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 162 PAwOBA .366 → .330 (−37)K% 16.7% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.036 | ×1.420 | — | — | 22.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷1.045 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 4.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.23% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.43% | ÷1.027 | ×0.920 | ×1.023 | ×1.012 | 31.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.74% | ÷0.942 | ×0.960 | ×1.023 | ×1.012 | 6.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.023 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.46% | ÷0.852 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 2.57% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 107, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .366 → .330; ISO .107 → .108; BABIP .412 → .390. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .