Wilson Soriano
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | A+Modesto Nuts | 298 | .266/.289/.288 | 0 | 17 | 40 | — | .250/.268/.271 |
| 2016 | 24 | AA/A+2 orgs | 142 | .241/.273/.278 | 0 | 6 | 37 | — | .229/.251/.266 |
| 2017 | 25 | A+Lancaster Jet… | 285 | .281/.313/.369 | 1 | 30 | 51 | — | .243/.265/.311 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rockies | — | 165 | 135 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 200 | 299 | 252 | 551 | 52 | 213 | 7 | 9 | 245 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rockies | — | 109 | 89 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 213 | 333 | 236 | 569 | 22 | 224 | 4 | 15 | 267 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rockies | — | 207 | 178 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 258 | 323 | 309 | 632 | 51 | 272 | 4 | 8 | 275 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK | DSL Rockies | — | 278 | 229 | 81 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 13 | 6 | 27 | 14 | 354 | 422 | 450 | 872 | 96 | 373 | 5 | 8 | 362 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | — | 25 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 174 | 208 | 174 | 382 | 200 | 12 | 4 | 173 | -13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2014 | 22 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 105 | 95 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 295 | 350 | 337 | 686 | 42 | 307 | 7 | 5 | 310 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | — | 298 | 278 | 74 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 36 | 3 | 17 | 9 | 266 | 289 | 288 | 577 | 22 | 302 | 12 | 2 | 254 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 64 | 60 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 317 | 349 | 383 | 733 | 67 | 365 | 12 | 5 | 324 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | — | 78 | 73 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 178 | 211 | 192 | 402 | 14 | 206 | 13 | 3 | 183 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 285 | 263 | 74 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 32 | 1 | 30 | 7 | 281 | 313 | 369 | 682 | 87 | 315 | 11 | 4 | 295 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 165 | 139 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 151 | 234 | 187 | 421 | 36 | 149 | 8 | 7 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 109 | 94 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 160 | 248 | 181 | 428 | 21 | 157 | 5 | 10 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 207 | 183 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 191 | 241 | 230 | 471 | 38 | 188 | 5 | 6 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 278 | 236 | 63 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 16 | 6 | 27 | 14 | 267 | 324 | 335 | 659 | 68 | 253 | 6 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 25 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 174 | 208 | 174 | 382 | 181 | 16 | 4 | 149 | -13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2014 | 22 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 105 | 97 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 247 | 291 | 289 | 580 | 41 | 249 | 10 | 3 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 298 | 280 | 70 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 46 | 3 | 17 | 9 | 250 | 268 | 271 | 540 | 21 | 279 | 15 | 1 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 64 | 61 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 311 | 333 | 377 | 710 | 66 | 362 | 16 | 3 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 78 | 74 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 162 | 184 | 176 | 360 | 14 | 191 | 18 | 1 | 157 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 285 | 267 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 48 | 1 | 30 | 7 | 243 | 265 | 311 | 576 | 67 | 279 | 17 | 2 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 165 | 139 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 151 | 234 | 187 | 421 | 36 | 163 | 8 | 7 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Rockies | — | 165 | 135 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 200 | 299 | 252 | 551 | 52 | 213 | 7 | 9 | 245 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 109 | 94 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 160 | 248 | 181 | 428 | 21 | 169 | 5 | 10 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Rockies | — | 109 | 89 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 213 | 333 | 236 | 569 | 22 | 224 | 4 | 15 | 267 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 207 | 183 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 191 | 241 | 230 | 471 | 38 | 203 | 5 | 6 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Rockies | — | 207 | 178 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 258 | 323 | 309 | 632 | 51 | 272 | 4 | 8 | 275 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 278 | 236 | 63 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 16 | 6 | 27 | 14 | 267 | 324 | 335 | 659 | 68 | 285 | 6 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK RAW | DSL Rockies | — | 278 | 229 | 81 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 13 | 6 | 27 | 14 | 354 | 422 | 450 | 872 | 96 | 373 | 5 | 8 | 362 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 130 | 120 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 225 | 268 | 258 | 526 | 33 | 245 | 11 | 3 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 130 | 118 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 271 | 323 | 305 | 628 | 34 | 287 | 8 | 5 | 284 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 298 | 280 | 70 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 46 | 3 | 17 | 9 | 250 | 268 | 271 | 540 | 21 | 295 | 15 | 1 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ RAW | Modesto Nuts | — | 298 | 278 | 74 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 36 | 3 | 17 | 9 | 266 | 289 | 288 | 577 | 22 | 302 | 12 | 2 | 254 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 142 | 134 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 231 | 259 | 269 | 528 | 37 | 279 | 16 | 3 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 142 | 133 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 241 | 273 | 278 | 552 | 38 | 278 | 13 | 4 | 247 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 285 | 267 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 48 | 1 | 30 | 7 | 243 | 265 | 311 | 576 | 67 | 291 | 17 | 2 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | A+ RAW | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 285 | 263 | 74 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 32 | 1 | 30 | 7 | 281 | 313 | 369 | 682 | 87 | 315 | 11 | 4 | 295 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 165 | 149 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 141 | 234 | 174 | 408 | 34 | 149 | 8 | 7 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 109 | 97 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 155 | 248 | 175 | 423 | 21 | 157 | 5 | 10 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 207 | 193 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 181 | 241 | 218 | 459 | 36 | 188 | 5 | 6 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 278 | 256 | 63 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 16 | 6 | 27 | 14 | 246 | 324 | 309 | 633 | 62 | 253 | 6 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 130 | 122 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 221 | 268 | 254 | 522 | 33 | 236 | 11 | 3 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 298 | 289 | 70 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 46 | 3 | 17 | 9 | 242 | 268 | 263 | 531 | 21 | 279 | 15 | 1 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 142 | 136 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 228 | 259 | 265 | 524 | 37 | 268 | 16 | 3 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 285 | 275 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 48 | 1 | 30 | 7 | 236 | 265 | 302 | 567 | 65 | 279 | 17 | 2 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1614 | 1453 | 327 | 39 | 9 | 2 | 67 | 176 | 18 | 130 | 55 | 225 | 268 | 268 | 536 | 43 | 253 | 11 | 4 | 225 | 38 | -118 | +4 | +0 | +6 | +35 | -7.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 133 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 71 | 7 | 52 | 22 | 227 | 270 | 274 | 543 | 46 | 255 | 11 | 4 | 225 | 38 | -48 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -3.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 A+Lancaster JetHawks · 285 PAwOBA .289 → .243 (−46)K% 11.2% → 16.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.23% | ÷0.897 | ×1.340 | — | — | 16.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.86% | ÷1.017 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 2.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.35% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.968 | 0.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.24% | ÷1.004 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 22.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.06% | ÷1.039 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 4.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.30% | ÷1.136 | ×0.760 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 0.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.43% | ÷1.600 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 0.24% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 220, 1B 101, 2B 108, 3B 127, K 79, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .289 → .243; ISO .087 → .064; BABIP .315 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Modesto Nuts · 78 PAwOBA .178 → .157 (−22)K% 12.8% → 17.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.82% | ÷0.960 | ×1.340 | — | — | 17.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.56% | ÷1.006 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 1.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.28% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷0.990 | ×0.910 | ×1.033 | ×0.978 | 17.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.59% | ÷0.933 | ×0.820 | ×1.033 | ×0.978 | 1.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | ×1.033 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.877 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 98, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 92, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .178 → .157; ISO .014 → .012; BABIP .206 → .191. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAHartford Yard Goats · 64 PAwOBA .316 → .304 (−12)K% 12.5% → 14.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.69% | ÷1.007 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 3.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷0.981 | ×0.970 | ×1.015 | ×0.998 | 30.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.021 | ×0.860 | ×1.015 | ×0.998 | 3.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.92% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | ×0.998 | 2.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.094 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 96, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 104, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .316 → .304; ISO .067 → .065; BABIP .365 → .362. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Modesto Nuts · 298 PAwOBA .249 → .228 (−21)K% 12.1% → 15.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.08% | ÷1.046 | ×1.340 | — | — | 15.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.01% | ÷1.043 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 1.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.01% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.51% | ÷1.014 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 26.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.65% | ÷0.963 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 1.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 0.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.827 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 103, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 109, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .249 → .228; ISO .022 → .018; BABIP .302 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ROKGrand Junction Rockies · 105 PAwOBA .305 → .241 (−65)K% 6.7% → 9.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 9.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.965 | 2.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.86% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 1.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.033 | ×0.965 | 24.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.033 | ×0.965 | 0.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.033 | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.965 | 0.82% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .305 → .241; ISO .042 → .031; BABIP .307 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Modesto Nuts · 25 PAwOBA .168 → .149 (−20)K% 12.0% → 16.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.00% | ÷0.977 | ×1.340 | — | — | 16.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.00% | ÷0.947 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 2.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.004 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 18.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.047 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.019 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 109, 3B 130, K 95, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .168 → .149; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .200 → .181. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 DSLDSL Rockies · 278 PAwOBA .352 → .263 (−90)K% 4.7% → 5.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 4.68% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 5.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.975 | 4.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.16% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.975 | 1.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×1.050 | ×0.975 | 20.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×0.975 | 3.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×0.975 | 1.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 18.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .352 → .263; ISO .096 → .067; BABIP .373 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 DSLDSL Rockies · 207 PAwOBA .268 → .197 (−71)K% 4.3% → 5.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 4.35% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 5.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 5.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×1.050 | ×0.985 | 15.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×0.985 | 2.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×0.985 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .268 → .197; ISO .051 → .034; BABIP .272 → .188. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).