Matt Williams
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | AAA/AASTL | 248 | .233/.355/.316 | 3 | 7 | 57 | — | .199/.294/.259 |
| 2016 | 26 | AAASTL | 395 | .263/.358/.346 | 1 | 11 | 66 | — | .232/.299/.305 |
| 2017 | 27 | AAAPHI | 306 | .241/.307/.369 | 6 | 10 | 51 | — | .206/.253/.312 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 21 | ROK | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 265 | 229 | 67 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 45 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 293 | 382 | 463 | 845 | 170 | 343 | 17 | 10 | 373 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 587 | 525 | 141 | 32 | 5 | 6 | 48 | 91 | 4 | 23 | 12 | 269 | 334 | 383 | 717 | 114 | 314 | 16 | 8 | 318 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 31 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 107 | 138 | 107 | 245 | 115 | 10 | 3 | 110 | -43 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 266 | 237 | 62 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 33 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 262 | 340 | 342 | 681 | 80 | 294 | 12 | 10 | 312 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 357 | 304 | 76 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 43 | 62 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 250 | 347 | 306 | 653 | 56 | 307 | 17 | 12 | 299 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 29 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 379 | 458 | 838 | 208 | 312 | 24 | 10 | 375 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 178 | 146 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 27 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 240 | 369 | 295 | 664 | 55 | 289 | 15 | 16 | 313 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 70 | 60 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 217 | 319 | 367 | 686 | 150 | 217 | 16 | 11 | 309 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 395 | 338 | 89 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 49 | 67 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 263 | 358 | 346 | 704 | 83 | 321 | 17 | 12 | 319 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 306 | 274 | 66 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 38 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 241 | 307 | 369 | 675 | 128 | 260 | 12 | 8 | 299 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 21 | ROK MLE | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 265 | 239 | 51 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 64 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 213 | 282 | 339 | 621 | 126 | 260 | 24 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 587 | 545 | 125 | 29 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 119 | 4 | 23 | 12 | 229 | 272 | 325 | 597 | 95 | 277 | 20 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 31 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 107 | 138 | 107 | 245 | 109 | 13 | 3 | 104 | -43 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 266 | 244 | 54 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 48 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 221 | 283 | 295 | 578 | 74 | 264 | 18 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 357 | 318 | 74 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 78 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 233 | 301 | 283 | 584 | 50 | 289 | 22 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 29 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 310 | 400 | 710 | 200 | 266 | 34 | 7 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 178 | 154 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 36 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 201 | 301 | 247 | 548 | 45 | 255 | 20 | 12 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 70 | 62 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 194 | 275 | 290 | 566 | 97 | 203 | 20 | 9 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 395 | 354 | 82 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 33 | 87 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 232 | 299 | 305 | 604 | 73 | 288 | 22 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 306 | 282 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 47 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 206 | 253 | 312 | 565 | 106 | 223 | 15 | 5 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | ROK MLE | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 265 | 239 | 51 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 64 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 213 | 282 | 339 | 621 | 126 | 271 | 24 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | ROK RAW | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 265 | 229 | 67 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 45 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 293 | 382 | 463 | 845 | 170 | 343 | 17 | 10 | 373 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 587 | 545 | 125 | 29 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 119 | 4 | 23 | 12 | 229 | 272 | 325 | 597 | 95 | 284 | 20 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A RAW | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 587 | 525 | 141 | 32 | 5 | 6 | 48 | 91 | 4 | 23 | 12 | 269 | 334 | 383 | 717 | 114 | 314 | 16 | 8 | 318 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 297 | 272 | 57 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 52 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 210 | 269 | 276 | 544 | 66 | 248 | 18 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 297 | 265 | 65 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 36 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 245 | 320 | 317 | 637 | 72 | 273 | 12 | 9 | 291 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 386 | 343 | 79 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 88 | 4 | 14 | 7 | 230 | 302 | 292 | 593 | 61 | 301 | 23 | 8 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 386 | 328 | 82 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 46 | 69 | 4 | 14 | 7 | 250 | 349 | 317 | 666 | 67 | 308 | 18 | 12 | 304 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 248 | 217 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 50 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 198 | 290 | 258 | 548 | 60 | 246 | 20 | 10 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 248 | 206 | 48 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 38 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 233 | 355 | 316 | 671 | 83 | 269 | 15 | 15 | 311 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 395 | 354 | 82 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 33 | 87 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 232 | 299 | 305 | 604 | 73 | 300 | 22 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA RAW | Memphis Redbirds | — | 395 | 338 | 89 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 49 | 67 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 263 | 358 | 346 | 704 | 83 | 321 | 17 | 12 | 319 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 306 | 282 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 47 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 206 | 253 | 312 | 565 | 106 | 229 | 15 | 5 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA RAW | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 306 | 274 | 66 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 38 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 241 | 307 | 369 | 675 | 128 | 260 | 12 | 8 | 299 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | ROK MLE | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 265 | 240 | 51 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 64 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 212 | 282 | 338 | 620 | 125 | 260 | 24 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 587 | 550 | 125 | 29 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 119 | 4 | 23 | 12 | 227 | 272 | 322 | 594 | 95 | 277 | 20 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 297 | 273 | 57 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 52 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 209 | 269 | 275 | 543 | 66 | 248 | 18 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 386 | 348 | 79 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 88 | 4 | 14 | 7 | 227 | 302 | 287 | 589 | 60 | 287 | 23 | 8 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 248 | 218 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 50 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 197 | 290 | 257 | 547 | 60 | 240 | 20 | 10 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 395 | 358 | 82 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 33 | 87 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 229 | 299 | 302 | 601 | 73 | 288 | 22 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 306 | 285 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 47 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 204 | 253 | 309 | 562 | 105 | 223 | 15 | 5 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2484 | 2252 | 495 | 93 | 14 | 23 | 171 | 507 | 21 | 97 | 44 | 220 | 281 | 304 | 585 | 84 | 272 | 20 | 7 | 256 | 59 | -120 | +2 | +0 | +27 | +54 | -3.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 130 | 24 | 4 | 6 | 45 | 133 | 5 | 25 | 12 | 221 | 281 | 306 | 587 | 85 | 274 | 20 | 7 | 256 | 59 | -32 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 306 PAwOBA .292 → .243 (−49)K% 12.4% → 15.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.42% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.84% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 5.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.07% | ÷1.055 | ×0.930 | ×0.989 | ×0.992 | 16.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.51% | ÷0.969 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | ×0.992 | 4.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.85% | ÷1.047 | ×0.970 | ×0.989 | ×0.992 | 0.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.54% | ÷1.043 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 2.03% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 111, 2B 94, 3B 109, K 92, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .292 → .243; ISO .128 → .108; BABIP .260 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 395 PAwOBA .312 → .266 (−45)K% 17.0% → 22.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.96% | ÷0.988 | ×1.290 | — | — | 22.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.65% | ÷0.983 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 8.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.25% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.35% | ÷0.989 | ×0.900 | ×0.998 | ×1.003 | 22.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.01% | ÷0.941 | ×0.810 | ×0.998 | ×1.003 | 6.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.11% | ÷0.951 | ×0.810 | ×0.998 | ×1.003 | 0.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.37% | ÷0.931 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 0.31% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 90, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .312 → .266; ISO .083 → .072; BABIP .321 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 178 PAwOBA .309 → .256 (−53)K% 15.2% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.17% | ÷0.967 | ×1.290 | — | — | 20.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.29% | ÷1.013 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 11.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷1.030 | ×0.900 | ×0.994 | ×1.018 | 20.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.04% | ÷0.946 | ×0.810 | ×0.994 | ×1.018 | 4.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.84% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.994 | ×1.018 | 0.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.224 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 145, 1B 106, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 93, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .309 → .256; ISO .055 → .049; BABIP .289 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AASpringfield Cardinals · 70 PAwOBA .301 → .246 (−55)K% 15.7% → 19.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.71% | ÷0.978 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 7.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.43% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.41% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×1.031 | ×0.988 | 19.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.003 | ×0.840 | ×1.031 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.003 | ×0.940 | ×1.031 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.12% | ÷1.140 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.25% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 101, K 96, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .301 → .246; ISO .150 → .106; BABIP .217 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AASpringfield Cardinals · 357 PAwOBA .293 → .257 (−36)K% 17.4% → 21.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.37% | ÷0.972 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.03% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×0.998 | 24.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.13% | ÷0.982 | ×0.840 | ×1.009 | ×0.998 | 3.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷0.991 | ×0.940 | ×1.009 | ×0.998 | 0.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.41% | ÷1.221 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.27% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 144, 1B 95, 2B 96, 3B 98, K 94, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .293 → .257; ISO .056 → .049; BABIP .307 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 29 PAwOBA .366 → .295 (−70)K% 24.1% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.14% | ÷0.998 | ×1.420 | — | — | 34.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.34% | ÷0.971 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.978 | 7.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.90% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.978 | 6.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷1.073 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 19.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.933 | ×0.960 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 5.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.809 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 6.26% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 62, 1B 115, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .366 → .295; ISO .208 → .182; BABIP .312 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 266 PAwOBA .304 → .256 (−49)K% 12.4% → 18.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.41% | ÷0.974 | ×1.420 | — | — | 18.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.77% | ÷1.026 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 7.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.75% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.02% | ÷1.024 | ×0.920 | ×1.006 | ×0.988 | 21.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.90% | ÷1.015 | ×0.960 | ×1.006 | ×0.988 | 4.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.964 | ×0.810 | ×1.006 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.47% | ÷0.972 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 1.31% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 105, 2B 103, 3B 93, K 95, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .304 → .256; ISO .080 → .071; BABIP .294 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AASpringfield Cardinals · 31 PAwOBA .111 → .104 (−7)K% 9.7% → 11.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.68% | ÷1.032 | ×1.220 | — | — | 11.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.23% | ÷1.030 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 2.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.00% | ÷0.991 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 11.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.184 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.143 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 98, 2B 137, 3B 130, K 106, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .111 → .104; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .115 → .109. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).