C.J. McElroy
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | AASTL | 149 | .262/.347/.308 | 1 | 9 | 73 | — | .261/.327/.306 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 291 | .235/.283/.317 | 3 | 19 | 44 | — | .217/.252/.295 |
| 2019 | 26 | AASF | 59 | .189/.271/.245 | 0 | 6 | 17 | — | .161/.203/.214 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 18 | ROK | GCL Cardinals | — | 89 | 79 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 228 | 307 | 278 | 585 | 51 | 277 | 17 | 8 | 271 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 268 | 247 | 67 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 42 | 1 | 24 | 5 | 271 | 316 | 332 | 648 | 61 | 325 | 16 | 6 | 289 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A | Peoria Chiefs | — | 266 | 242 | 58 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 40 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 240 | 290 | 302 | 591 | 62 | 286 | 15 | 6 | 263 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A | Peoria Chiefs | — | 558 | 490 | 131 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 40 | 84 | 16 | 41 | 18 | 267 | 342 | 298 | 640 | 31 | 323 | 15 | 7 | 294 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 51 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 200 | 347 | 225 | 572 | 25 | 286 | 24 | 12 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 493 | 430 | 106 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 94 | 20 | 39 | 16 | 247 | 331 | 314 | 645 | 67 | 307 | 19 | 7 | 295 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 149 | 130 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 29 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 262 | 347 | 308 | 655 | 46 | 330 | 19 | 9 | 303 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 147 | 140 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 193 | 226 | 243 | 469 | 50 | 234 | 19 | 3 | 213 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 144 | 128 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 281 | 343 | 398 | 741 | 117 | 343 | 19 | 7 | 325 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 59 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 189 | 271 | 245 | 516 | 57 | 256 | 24 | 10 | 243 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Cardinals | — | 89 | 82 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 171 | 227 | 207 | 435 | 37 | 233 | 25 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 268 | 252 | 56 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 60 | 1 | 24 | 5 | 222 | 255 | 270 | 525 | 48 | 282 | 22 | 4 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 266 | 248 | 54 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 56 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 218 | 251 | 270 | 521 | 52 | 269 | 21 | 4 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 558 | 502 | 124 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 107 | 16 | 41 | 18 | 247 | 308 | 277 | 585 | 30 | 303 | 19 | 5 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 493 | 436 | 92 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 137 | 20 | 39 | 16 | 211 | 289 | 261 | 551 | 50 | 289 | 28 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 149 | 134 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 261 | 327 | 306 | 633 | 45 | 335 | 23 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 147 | 141 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 177 | 205 | 227 | 432 | 50 | 224 | 24 | 3 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 144 | 132 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 33 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 258 | 300 | 364 | 664 | 106 | 314 | 23 | 4 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 59 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 161 | 203 | 214 | 418 | 54 | 237 | 31 | 5 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Cardinals | — | 89 | 82 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 171 | 227 | 207 | 435 | 37 | 230 | 25 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Cardinals | — | 89 | 79 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 228 | 307 | 278 | 585 | 51 | 277 | 17 | 8 | 271 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 268 | 252 | 56 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 60 | 1 | 24 | 5 | 222 | 255 | 270 | 525 | 48 | 290 | 22 | 4 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK RAW | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 268 | 247 | 67 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 42 | 1 | 24 | 5 | 271 | 316 | 332 | 648 | 61 | 325 | 16 | 6 | 289 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 266 | 248 | 54 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 56 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 218 | 251 | 270 | 521 | 52 | 280 | 21 | 4 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A RAW | Peoria Chiefs | — | 266 | 242 | 58 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 40 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 240 | 290 | 302 | 591 | 62 | 286 | 15 | 6 | 263 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 609 | 545 | 136 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 116 | 19 | 48 | 20 | 250 | 313 | 279 | 592 | 29 | 317 | 19 | 5 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 609 | 530 | 139 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 46 | 96 | 19 | 48 | 20 | 262 | 343 | 292 | 635 | 30 | 320 | 16 | 8 | 292 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 493 | 436 | 92 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 137 | 20 | 39 | 16 | 211 | 289 | 261 | 551 | 50 | 300 | 28 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ RAW | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 493 | 430 | 106 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 94 | 20 | 39 | 16 | 247 | 331 | 314 | 645 | 67 | 307 | 19 | 7 | 295 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 149 | 134 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 261 | 327 | 306 | 633 | 45 | 347 | 23 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA RAW | Springfield Cardinals | — | 149 | 130 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 29 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 262 | 347 | 308 | 655 | 46 | 330 | 19 | 9 | 303 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 291 | 273 | 59 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 68 | 3 | 19 | 8 | 216 | 252 | 293 | 545 | 77 | 276 | 23 | 3 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 291 | 268 | 63 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 56 | 3 | 19 | 8 | 235 | 283 | 317 | 600 | 82 | 286 | 19 | 5 | 268 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 59 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 161 | 203 | 214 | 418 | 54 | 237 | 31 | 5 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA RAW | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 59 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 189 | 271 | 245 | 516 | 57 | 256 | 24 | 10 | 243 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Cardinals | — | 89 | 83 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 169 | 227 | 205 | 432 | 36 | 233 | 25 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 268 | 255 | 56 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 60 | 1 | 24 | 5 | 220 | 255 | 267 | 521 | 47 | 282 | 22 | 4 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 266 | 253 | 54 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 56 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 213 | 251 | 265 | 516 | 51 | 269 | 21 | 4 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 609 | 554 | 136 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 116 | 19 | 48 | 20 | 245 | 313 | 274 | 587 | 29 | 303 | 19 | 5 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 493 | 442 | 92 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 137 | 20 | 39 | 16 | 208 | 289 | 258 | 547 | 50 | 289 | 28 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 149 | 135 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 259 | 327 | 304 | 630 | 44 | 335 | 23 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 291 | 276 | 59 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 68 | 3 | 19 | 8 | 214 | 252 | 290 | 542 | 76 | 269 | 23 | 3 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 59 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 161 | 203 | 214 | 418 | 54 | 237 | 31 | 5 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2224 | 2026 | 455 | 50 | 14 | 6 | 106 | 512 | 49 | 161 | 64 | 225 | 280 | 272 | 552 | 47 | 296 | 23 | 5 | 243 | 50 | -131 | +7 | +0 | +8 | +48 | -7.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 592 | 134 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 31 | 150 | 14 | 47 | 19 | 226 | 281 | 275 | 556 | 49 | 299 | 23 | 5 | 243 | 50 | -38 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 59 PAwOBA .229 → .193 (−36)K% 23.7% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.73% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.47% | ÷1.011 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.51% | ÷1.020 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.988 | 19.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.56% | ÷0.916 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 2.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.147 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.988 | 2.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.890 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 104, 2B 83, 3B 129, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .229 → .193; ISO .057 → .047; BABIP .256 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAALouisville Bats · 147 PAwOBA .207 → .185 (−22)K% 19.0% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.05% | ÷0.962 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.40% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 2.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.68% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.54% | ÷1.011 | ×0.930 | ×1.014 | ×1.033 | 19.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.79% | ÷1.018 | ×0.830 | ×1.014 | ×1.033 | 1.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.89% | ÷1.001 | ×0.970 | ×1.014 | ×1.033 | 0.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.89% | ÷0.988 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 0.78% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 100, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .207 → .185; ISO .050 → .044; BABIP .234 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 144 PAwOBA .316 → .284 (−31)K% 19.4% → 23.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.44% | ÷1.030 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷0.967 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 4.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.39% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.00% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×1.028 | ×0.998 | 23.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.00% | ÷1.039 | ×0.910 | ×1.028 | ×0.998 | 6.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.00% | ÷1.006 | ×0.880 | ×1.028 | ×0.998 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.909 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.76% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 105, 2B 108, 3B 101, K 106, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .316 → .284; ISO .117 → .107; BABIP .343 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AASpringfield Cardinals · 149 PAwOBA .295 → .276 (−19)K% 19.5% → 23.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.46% | ÷1.019 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.72% | ÷0.999 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 6.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.68% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 2.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.70% | ÷0.966 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 30.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.97% | ÷0.986 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 2.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.99% | ÷1.155 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.70% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 93, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 104, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .295 → .276; ISO .046 → .038; BABIP .330 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 493 PAwOBA .288 → .250 (−38)K% 19.1% → 27.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.07% | ÷0.976 | ×1.420 | — | — | 27.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.69% | ÷0.907 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 5.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.06% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 3.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.89% | ÷1.024 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 24.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.102 | ×0.960 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 3.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.19% | ÷1.122 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.89% | ÷0.989 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.80% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 105, 2B 120, 3B 124, K 95, BB 81 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .288 → .250; ISO .067 → .054; BABIP .307 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 APeoria Chiefs · 558 PAwOBA .286 → .258 (−29)K% 15.1% → 19.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.05% | ÷1.074 | ×1.360 | — | — | 19.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.17% | ÷0.993 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 5.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.87% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.06% | ÷1.051 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 27.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.71% | ÷0.896 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 2.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.49% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.202 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 110, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 115, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .286 → .258; ISO .031 → .031; BABIP .323 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 APeoria Chiefs · 266 PAwOBA .257 → .225 (−32)K% 15.0% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.04% | ÷0.980 | ×1.360 | — | — | 20.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.39% | ÷1.068 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 4.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.77% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×1.032 | ×1.030 | 22.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.46% | ÷1.203 | ×0.830 | ×1.032 | ×1.030 | 3.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.49% | ÷0.938 | ×0.910 | ×1.032 | ×1.030 | 1.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.867 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 100, 2B 141, 3B 88, K 96, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .257 → .225; ISO .062 → .052; BABIP .286 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 ROKJohnson City Cardinals · 268 PAwOBA .282 → .227 (−55)K% 15.7% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 22.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×1.008 | 3.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.37% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×1.008 | 0.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 23.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 4.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .282 → .227; ISO .061 → .046; BABIP .325 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .